Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

[Snowblaze]

Night is forty-seven hours. I definitely knew that all along.

If bladescape doesn't want me to purple-vote for him, I guess I'll switch my second vote to gac3. The volunteering is surface-level towny but could easily be "but if I volunteer, bladescape won't actually use it on me because I'll look towny"... and I'm going to stop there before I descend too far into WIFOM.

As the SK from Craziest Idea, it was possible for SK and Survivor to win together then. Though I don't think it's relevant to AV given they're both clearly being sarcastic and claiming non-neutral.

@gac3, that comment wasn't me townreading you. I don't townread you. It was saying "while ISOing you, I saw a post that made me feel better about Captain Cap".

I think that's all I need to reply to... and now I don't have the excuse of being dead to get out of ISOing bladescape.

...I really don't want to, though.

[Batcathat]

I think that's all I need to reply to... and now I don't have the excuse of being dead to get out of ISOing bladescape.

...I really don't want to, though.

That's probably a sign that you should do it. Last game I kept thinking "I should really ISO AV... but it looks exhausting". Not that I think I would've been very likely to figure something out but at least I'd have some slight chance to.

This time, I decided to do my first ISO on Rogan (I don't really have any strong suspicions at this point, but since I already blade-voted him I figured it was a good start). Then I realized how many posts he's made.

So yes, Rogan, from this particular perspective you do post too much. (Joking aside, it's good people are keeping the thread active, thanks to work I haven't had much time myself but I'm keeping an eye on it).

[gac3]

Night is forty-seven hours. I definitely knew that all along.

If bladescape doesn't want me to purple-vote for him, I guess I'll switch my second vote to gac3. The volunteering is surface-level towny but could easily be "but if I volunteer, bladescape won't actually use it on me because I'll look towny"... and I'm going to stop there before I descend too far into WIFOM.

As the SK from Craziest Idea, it was possible for SK and Survivor to win together then. Though I don't think it's relevant to AV given they're both clearly being sarcastic and claiming non-neutral.

@gac3, that comment wasn't me townreading you. I don't townread you. It was saying "while ISOing you, I saw a post that made me feel better about Captain Cap".

I think that's all I need to reply to... and now I don't have the excuse of being dead to get out of ISOing bladescape.

...I really don't want to, though.

My bad. Misunderstood. I was thinking it was cape. Not cap. So I thought the feeling better was about me.

[Captain Cap]

Captain Cap[/COLOR][/B]!Mafia - just maybe because I haven't played with him before, or maybe because the erraticness of his posts.

And I haven't even put in a mathematical proof this time.

[Snowblaze]

*sigh*

All right. I guess I'm doing this.

Spoiler: bladescape ISO

Show

Opens with "wolfy for running the game is a legitimate suspicion" - which is only true if you don't start the game by flipping yourself town.

Asks me if I'm a wolf. (Still no.) Which... I can kind of see that as either alignment depending on which way I squint. I wasn't obvious town then, but after last game wolf!bladescape could see me as a viable mislynch.

Explanation is reasonable. If it had been any stronger a read I'd be pretty suspicious. I like the mindmeld we had there on town!Rogan. Information being good is true but NAI.

Caoimhin pressures bladescape for a vote. Given the number of people they did similar things to, I'd be surprised if at least one wasn't a partner. NAI. In their reads list the bladescape read is pure IIOA.

The cryptic post is... well, cryptic. I think bladescape is being cryptic because he wants to/it amuses him, and he'd do that regardless of alignment.

Claiming to be an open book, which turns out to be an open book written in a language none of us can understand. Part of me wants to say "a wolf wouldn't be deliberately unhelpful, knowing it would antagonise Meta" but I fake-townread wolf!him for being antagonistic in Percy Jackson so... I'm bad at reading bladescape, okay?

Accuses me of waffling. Eh... I can see how my Meta stuff could be seen as that but I also think bladescape knows me well enough to know I waffle as town (see: most of this ISO)

There's some of that "humour to deflect from suspicion" I mentioned earlier. And voting me. I guess I missed the "vote bladescape for bandwagoning" sale. Anyway, poking to see what pops out was a decent move in that gamestate, it just looks terrible in hindsight.

The "last two town games" thing I called out was probably a mistake regardless of his alignment.

More mindmelding on townreads. ...I could see myself mindmelding with wolf!bladescape, unfortunately.

Caoimhin claims bladescape is a small wolf lean. When called out on not suggesting him as a wagon, they explain it's because he only had one vote but they're fine with lynching him.

(Note: why couldn't you have hard-pushed someone so I could clear them, Caoimhin?)

Oh, lol, Rogan made the same "book in another language" joke as I did. I didn't see or remember that post earlier, honestly ;)

The post bladescape quotes Rogan in is *shrug*. Claiming Meta is TWTBAW which... I could kind of see. I have to squint a bit to get there, though. Though wolf!bladescape knows Meta is about to be cleared via Caoimhin flip and therefore wouldn't want to wolfread them.

Last couple of posts before EOD don't have that much game-related content.

*shrug* bladescape/Captain Cap not w/w as bladescape would be aware his partner isn't bussing. Would be interested to see who you think might be bussing... actually I should talk about that outside spoilers.

The voting thing is surface-level towny, there's no reason a wolf couldn't fake it but I'd imagine there'd be less motivation (leaving role speculation out of this).

Yeah, talking at night is fine imo. Also if I die tonight you know who to blame!

I do like actively encouraging people to join on with the voting. Again, not unfakeable but it implies he cares about people's thoughts.

Trusting my reads activates my paranoia, but once I stop being paranoid I don't really think it's that wolfy. I mentioned the humour thing earlier.

...yeah. I believe you that 90% of your wolf game is just copying your town game. That's the problem.

Made it! :D

tl;dr Snowblaze uses far too many words to say "I have no idea how to read bladescape, this could come from either alignment".

I'm starting to be a bit concerned I'm missing something, given my lack of any strong wolfreads. That kind of ties into my point about bussing, because. I don't see anything implausible about the idea that wolves bussed until I look at the Caoimhin wagon to see who those wolves could have been.

I'm town. Meta makes no sense as a Caoimhin partner. Elenna and Batcathat's votes were crucial, and I don't think either of them are the type to cold-heartedly sacrifice a partner for towncred. Book Wombat is an uncounterclaimed Survivor. Which only leaves AV as a possible busser.

...meh. My POE could be wrong but I don't think I can really start tinfoiling and working out who exactly I'm wrong about at this stage. And it might be I'm just paranoid.

Hopefully I die before I have to worry about it.

[gac3]

AV is not a busser. At least not in this game.

[Book Wombat]

Hey gac3, is the person you're thinking of purple? Really not sure, I might be totally off.

I think you missed this so reposting.

[gac3]

So if snow's assertions on the rest are correct, then either Snow is a wolf, or their are no bussers.

Either way, looking at Snow's wagon seems more effective based on that outcome

- - - Updated - - -

I think you missed this so reposting.

I think I know who you were thinking of and I actually had a different theory. So perhaps I was wrong the whole time.

[Snowblaze]

Do you actually think my assertions are correct? Any you're not so sure of?

[gac3]

Do you actually think my assertions are correct? Any you're not so sure of?

Let me sleep and get back to you.

The logic I saw was sound. But I'd have to check the facts to make sure I don't just blindly take you at your word.

- - - Updated - - -

I should be up a few hours before end of night to get my thoughts on it before I potentially die. Though as I am a likely lynch tomorrow, I hope that protects me tonight.

[Rogan]

Night is forty-seven hours. I definitely knew that all along.

If bladescape doesn't want me to purple-vote for him, I guess I'll switch my second vote to gac3. The volunteering is surface-level towny but could easily be "but if I volunteer, bladescape won't actually use it on me because I'll look towny"... and I'm going to stop there before I descend too far into WIFOM.

As the SK from Craziest Idea, it was possible for SK and Survivor to win together then. Though I don't think it's relevant to AV given they're both clearly being sarcastic and claiming non-neutral.

I have to admit, I would have missed the timing thing if it wasn't called out multiple times (before I called it out myself).
I mean, come on.... who is going to read the EoN time? It's common knowledge that the night takes 24 hours. Except when it doesn't.

I start to see a pattern here. I go for the surface level in my reads, Snow takes another step. If she is right again, I should probably adopt her stance.


Yeah AV was sarcastic. But, from my point of view, her sarcasm was missing the point. The serial killer could win while the survivor was alive in CI. So my assumption that this could be true in this game as well really doesn't seem far fetched. To be fair I could see the other side as well: In the first UPick, AV had to kill everyone to win, so she could assume the same victory condition this time. Well, let's try to check the actual rules, okay?
Book as our resident survivor: Can you win together with the serial killer?

This time, I decided to do my first ISO on Rogan (I don't really have any strong suspicions at this point, but since I already blade-voted him I figured it was a good start). Then I realized how many posts he's made.

So yes, Rogan, from this particular perspective you do post too much. (Joking aside, it's good people are keeping the thread active, thanks to work I haven't had much time myself but I'm keeping an eye on it).

Yeah, sorry about this. Someone mentioned wolves might want to spam posts, so actual info is harder to find. That is not my intention, but it could still have that effect. I will try to limit myself to somewhat important posts. But no promises I won't add a joke post from time to time.

*sigh*

All right. I guess I'm doing this.

bladescape ISO (unspoiled and shortened)
Opens with "wolfy for running the game is a legitimate suspicion" - which is only true if you don't start the game by flipping yourself town.


Oh, lol, Rogan made the same "book in another language" joke as I did. I didn't see or remember that post earlier, honestly ;)

<hr></hr>

tl;dr Snowblaze uses far too many words to say "I have no idea how to read bladescape, this could come from either alignment".

I'm starting to be a bit concerned I'm missing something, given my lack of any strong wolfreads. That kind of ties into my point about bussing, because. I don't see anything implausible about the idea that wolves bussed until I look at the Caoimhin wagon to see who those wolves could have been.

I'm town. Meta makes no sense as a Caoimhin partner. Elenna and Batcathat's votes were crucial, and I don't think either of them are the type to cold-heartedly sacrifice a partner for towncred. Book Wombat is an uncounterclaimed Survivor. Which only leaves AV as a possible busser.

...meh. My POE could be wrong but I don't think I can really start tinfoiling and working out who exactly I'm wrong about at this stage. And it might be I'm just paranoid.

Hopefully I die before I have to worry about it.

I wonder if your willingness to actually do the ISO means you are a wolf this time. After all, last game you were town and could not stop talking about ISOing me, without doing so.

Can you explain the first point of the ISO? I don't quite get it.

Don't worry, I won't start a case against you for using copyrighted material.

Theory time: No wolf was bussing, because at least one wolf was inactive. We had two players not voting and Xi was still voting for me at EoD.

I am not sure about your POE, but I can't find a mistake in your logic. I'm fine with leaving things as they are at the moment and wait for the death flips of tonight.

AV is not a busser. At least not in this game.

I don't like the confidence for a night 1 read on AV. But someone made the point that AVs busses tend to be more informed than an placeholder vote. I would like you to expand on this tomorrow (assuming it's still relevant and possible).

[Book Wombat]

I can survive with the Serial Killer I think with how my win condition is phrased.

[AvatarVecna]

I don't like the confidence for a night 1 read on AV. But someone made the point that AVs busses tend to be more informed than an placeholder vote. I would like you to expand on this tomorrow (assuming it's still relevant and possible).

Couldn't that just be making the best of a bad situation? I come in late, see a wagon on my scumbuddy, put a vote on them as a placeholder, and by the time I come back they've basically outed themselves and my best move is to just not get off their wagon?

[bladescape]

*sigh*

All right. I guess I'm doing this.

Spoiler: bladescape ISO

Show

Opens with "wolfy for running the game is a legitimate suspicion" - which is only true if you don't start the game by flipping yourself town.

Asks me if I'm a wolf. (Still no.) Which... I can kind of see that as either alignment depending on which way I squint. I wasn't obvious town then, but after last game wolf!bladescape could see me as a viable mislynch.

Explanation is reasonable. If it had been any stronger a read I'd be pretty suspicious. I like the mindmeld we had there on town!Rogan. Information being good is true but NAI.

Caoimhin pressures bladescape for a vote. Given the number of people they did similar things to, I'd be surprised if at least one wasn't a partner. NAI. In their reads list the bladescape read is pure IIOA.

The cryptic post is... well, cryptic. I think bladescape is being cryptic because he wants to/it amuses him, and he'd do that regardless of alignment.

Claiming to be an open book, which turns out to be an open book written in a language none of us can understand. Part of me wants to say "a wolf wouldn't be deliberately unhelpful, knowing it would antagonise Meta" but I fake-townread wolf!him for being antagonistic in Percy Jackson so... I'm bad at reading bladescape, okay?

Accuses me of waffling. Eh... I can see how my Meta stuff could be seen as that but I also think bladescape knows me well enough to know I waffle as town (see: most of this ISO)

There's some of that "humour to deflect from suspicion" I mentioned earlier. And voting me. I guess I missed the "vote bladescape for bandwagoning" sale. Anyway, poking to see what pops out was a decent move in that gamestate, it just looks terrible in hindsight.

The "last two town games" thing I called out was probably a mistake regardless of his alignment.

More mindmelding on townreads. ...I could see myself mindmelding with wolf!bladescape, unfortunately.

Caoimhin claims bladescape is a small wolf lean. When called out on not suggesting him as a wagon, they explain it's because he only had one vote but they're fine with lynching him.

(Note: why couldn't you have hard-pushed someone so I could clear them, Caoimhin?)

Oh, lol, Rogan made the same "book in another language" joke as I did. I didn't see or remember that post earlier, honestly ;)

The post bladescape quotes Rogan in is *shrug*. Claiming Meta is TWTBAW which... I could kind of see. I have to squint a bit to get there, though. Though wolf!bladescape knows Meta is about to be cleared via Caoimhin flip and therefore wouldn't want to wolfread them.

Last couple of posts before EOD don't have that much game-related content.

*shrug* bladescape/Captain Cap not w/w as bladescape would be aware his partner isn't bussing. Would be interested to see who you think might be bussing... actually I should talk about that outside spoilers.

The voting thing is surface-level towny, there's no reason a wolf couldn't fake it but I'd imagine there'd be less motivation (leaving role speculation out of this).

Yeah, talking at night is fine imo. Also if I die tonight you know who to blame!

I do like actively encouraging people to join on with the voting. Again, not unfakeable but it implies he cares about people's thoughts.

Trusting my reads activates my paranoia, but once I stop being paranoid I don't really think it's that wolfy. I mentioned the humour thing earlier.

...yeah. I believe you that 90% of your wolf game is just copying your town game. That's the problem.

Made it! :D

tl;dr Snowblaze uses far too many words to say "I have no idea how to read bladescape, this could come from either alignment".

I'm starting to be a bit concerned I'm missing something, given my lack of any strong wolfreads. That kind of ties into my point about bussing, because. I don't see anything implausible about the idea that wolves bussed until I look at the Caoimhin wagon to see who those wolves could have been.

I'm town. Meta makes no sense as a Caoimhin partner. Elenna and Batcathat's votes were crucial, and I don't think either of them are the type to cold-heartedly sacrifice a partner for towncred. Book Wombat is an uncounterclaimed Survivor. Which only leaves AV as a possible busser.

...meh. My POE could be wrong but I don't think I can really start tinfoiling and working out who exactly I'm wrong about at this stage. And it might be I'm just paranoid.

Hopefully I die before I have to worry about it.

I just want you to know that this post makes me sit here grinning.

[Rogan]

I can survive with the Serial Killer I think with how my win condition is phrased.

Thanks for the answer. I think this is pointing to AV not being the SK. AV said the killer would have to kill everybody, you say you could win at the same time. If AV had been right, she might have had too much information.

Couldn't that just be making the best of a bad situation? I come in late, see a wagon on my scumbuddy, put a vote on them as a placeholder, and by the time I come back they've basically outed themselves and my best move is to just not get off their wagon?

Sure, this would be possible as well. Not something I would suggest, but nether outlandish enough to call it an attempt to push a misslynch.
I think the way you kind of attack people clearing you for the Cao vote is more likely to be town than wolf. As a wolf, you would be OK with not being suspected, while as a townie, you admit you are likely to manipulate people.
This could be manipulation again, but this is WIFOM territory. I won't engage in this kind of game against you. I can only lose, since you would poison both cups and drink the antidote beforehand. Or, as town, you might simply die to take me with you, assuming you think I am a wolf.

[moonfly7]

I know it's probably already been said in multiple ways, but theres absolutely no reason for us to believe that the wolves didn't read the room with Cao and then use his death as a means to both escape the spotlight and cause misdirection. Cao was pretty hard got from the beggining no matter how close it got later on, which I think was shown in how he reacted: Like he knew he was dying and OK with it, probably because he talked to the rest of the wolves and they agreed to push him over the edge with votes if necassary.

I think we have to be careful here, because I think after he got to the majority the first time, Cao and the wolves started playing the long game and decided to use his death as leverage. He town cleared Snow, the person trying to have him murdered, and he would have known if Snow was an ally or not, so I'd like to think that he read the room and was trying to set snow up for downfall later on. Or the whole thing was a set up from the beggining and snow was a plant, but I dob't believe that right now.

So Cao dies, he goes out townreading snow but voting her because he doesn't want to die, which is what others said a Town!Cao would do. So he's dead, and now we need to look at who gains from that death. I'm still suspiscious of the 2 last minute votes that bumped Cao up when Snowblazes vote tally got close to his. It happened not once but twice if my memory serves, but I'll need to go back and check to be sure. And by happened twice I mean it was literally the post directly after the Snow vote. Those two, both of whcih came out of left field in my opinion, were really fishy. I'm going to read through the read and post my thoughts and also exactly who those two were.

[Book Wombat]

Mine was one.

[moonfly7]

Mine was one.

Yeah, review shows it was you and batcathat. Although he wasn't immediatly after he was very close, just 10 minutes after. Not enough to go on but I do still think it odd, but I'm not getting major wolf vibes from either.
Though I will say that on review, Cap started as seemingly against cao but then he voted shifted to Snow without great reasons. When brought up before he made it sound like he was always teetering between both, and at the time that was good enough for me because I believed cao. But on review the whole thing feels very contrived to me. Just looking back the whole thing feels stilted.

[bladescape]

Tbh to me, Cap is definitely the most suspicious from that whole sequence.

[Captain Cap]

Yeah, review shows it was you and batcathat. Although he wasn't immediatly after he was very close, just 10 minutes after. Not enough to go on but I do still think it odd, but I'm not getting major wolf vibes from either.
Though I will say that on review, Cap started as seemingly against cao but then he voted shifted to Snow without great reasons.

Can you exactly point out how I was specifically anti-Cao in the sense that I though he was a wolf? It was the entire point of our discussion that I didn't have particularly strong opinions on either Cao and Snowblaze: it seems pretty convenient you're ignoring that considering you were active part of that conversation and were one of the 3 people pushing me for a vote (one of those a confirmed wolf).
Honestly, it seems that no matter what would I have done, you had decided to pile on me in any scenario.

- - - Updated - - -

When brought up before he made it sound like he was always teetering between both, and at the time that was good enough for me because I believed cao.

Was it because you "believed" Cao or because antagonizing someone who just voted for the counter-wagon would have been counterproductive for the wolf cause?

[Rogan]

Spoiler: Vote Counts

Show

bladescape (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (2): Taffimai, Elenna
Batcathat (2): Moonfly7, CaoimhinTheCape
Snowblaze (1): Rogan
Taffimai (1): gac3
Not Voting: Supagoof, Fext, bladescape

Vote Count:

BladeScape (2): Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape
AvatarVecna (1): Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (2): Taffimai, Elenna
Batcathat (1): Moonfly7
Snowblaze (1): Rogan

Not Voting: SupaGoof, gac3, Fext, BladeScape

Vote Count:

BladeScape (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (1): Taffimai
Batcathat (1): Moonfly7
Snowblaze (1): Rogan
Taffimai (1): gac3
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting: SupaGoof, Fext, BladeScape

Vote Count:

BladeScape (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (1): Taffimai
Batcathat (1): Moonfly7
Snowblaze (1): Rogan
Taffimai (1): gac3
Book Wombat (1): CaoimhinTheCape
Elenna (1): BladeScape

Not Voting: SupaGoof, Fext

Vote Count:
BladeScape (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (1): Taffimai
Snowblaze (3): Rogan, Moonfly7, BladeScape
Taffimai (1): gac3
Captain Cap(1): CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting: SupaGoof, Fext

Vote Count:
BladeScape (1): Book Wombat
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (1): Taffimai
Snowblaze (4): Rogan, Moonfly7, BladeScape, Captain Cap
Taffimai (1): gac3
Captain Cap(1): CaoimhinTheCape

Not Voting: SupaGoof, Fext

Vote Count:
BladeScape (1): Book Wombat
CaoimhinTheCape (5): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna, Batcathat
Rogan (1): Xihirli
Xihirli (1): Taffimai
Snowblaze (4): Rogan, Moonfly7, BladeScape, Captain Cap
Taffimai (1): gac3


Not Voting: SupaGoof, Fext, CaoimhinTheCape

Vote Count:
BladeScape (1): Book Wombat
CaoimhinTheCape (6): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna, Batcathat, Taffimai
Rogan (1): Xihirli
Snowblaze (5): Rogan, Moonfly7, BladeScape, Captain Cap, CaoimhinTheCape
Taffimai (1): gac3


Not Voting: SupaGoof, Fext

Vote Count:
BladeScape (1): Book Wombat
CaoimhinTheCape (6): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna, Batcathat, Taffimai
Rogan (1): Xihirli
Snowblaze (6): Rogan, Moonfly7, BladeScape, Captain Cap, CaoimhinTheCape, gac3


Not Voting: SupaGoof, Fext

AvatarVecna voted CAOIMHINTHECAPE
Captain Cap voted SNOWBLAZE
Snowblaze voted CAOIMHINTHECAPE
Batcathat voted CAOIMHINTHECAPE
SupaGoof REFUSED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE CORRUPT INSTITUTION OF DEMOCRACY
CaoimhinTheCape voted SNOWBLAZE
Taffimai voted CAOIMHINTHECAPE
gac3 voted SNOWBLAZE
Book Wombat voted CAOIMHINTHECAPE
Fext REFUSED TO PARTICIPATE IN THE CORRUPT INSTITUTION OF DEMOCRACY
Moonfly7 voted SNOWBLAZE
Xihirli voted ROGAN
bladescape voted SNOWBLAZE
Elenna voted CAOIMHINTHECAPE
Metastachydium voted CAOIMHINTHECAPE
Rogan voted SNOWBLAZE

I think many people were commenting on the players voting for Cao. Let's take a look at the Snow voters.

I start the case that Snows attack sounds fishy and openly in defense of Cao.
It takes some time and many shifts of votes at other places, but suddenly we are at 3 votes for snow, 4 for Cao. Moonfly and blades turn my weak case into a counter-wagon.
Captain Cap is next to join the wagon. Here, Cao had a change to shift votes from Cap to Snow, putting her in the lead. TODO: Check the timing of votes
Next count, Batcathat joined the Cao wagon, Cao had unvoted.
Next count, Cao finally goes after Snow, but it's 5 vs 6 at this point, so no danger of actually hitting her unless a Snow voter changes sides.
Gac votes to turn it into a tie.

---

Only looking at the votes, not the stated reasons:
Captain Cap and Gac are the players who made the wagons a tie (which still favored a Cao lynch, according to the rules).
Of those two, the captain looks worse, since Cao was not on Snow at this moment, so there was a real chance to turn the wagons around.

Going by memory, Batcathat was fast to respond to the Captains vote. I don't know what Cao was doing at this time. If this was intended as a serious attempt to turn the wagons around, the wolves either didn't coordinate goof enough or they were afraid of being too obvious.

A very paranoid reading would be, Snow, Bat and Cao are a team. Snow made her weak case, but it gained more traction then expected and the only counter wagon that gained any speed was Snow. So instead of trying to create another wagon, they decided to sacrifice Cao and use it as a way to gain credibility for both wolves.
I doubt this really is the case, but if Snow or Bat flip wolf, it could be worth checking this theory again.

Going purely by the votes, Blades, Captain Cap and gac are suspicious. Checking the stated reasons for the votes should be done as well, but right now I don't have the time. I might come back to this later or someone else can do this for me.

[Taffimai]

I haven't read up fully, but I might not get to do so before night ends.

And now for something completely different:
It feels like I could die tonight and I still would have more posts than some of the other players at the end of game...
Does this mean I speak to much? Or are those other players too silent? (Goof is excused for the moment, because of WE)

Yeah, sorry about this. Someone mentioned wolves might want to spam posts, so actual info is harder to find. That is not my intention, but it could still have that effect. I will try to limit myself to somewhat important posts. But no promises I won't add a joke post from time to time.

That was me, I am always highly prejudiced against the top few posters, not so much because posting a lot is a thing wolves do, but something which imo helps them. Especially posts like yours that actually also have content as opposed to the jokes that you can just skip over. You're not sus, you're just at the top of my "don't care if we misslynch" list.

I know it's probably already been said in multiple ways, but theres absolutely no reason for us to believe that the wolves didn't read the room with Cao and then use his death as a means to both escape the spotlight and cause misdirection.

This would be especially true if the game started with four wolves, which is what I'd have done as a narrator in a game with a lot of powers including (presumably) night kills on the town side.

What do people think of my theory that the "fast" night power priority coming before the "protection" one might indicate that immunity powers might shield someone from the wolf kill powers, but not that of the serial killer? It came to me after looking at Caoimhin's powers again, and I find it absolutely terrifying for its implications for the late game, but I'd like to hear other interpretations.

[Captain Cap]

What do people think of my theory that the "fast" night power priority coming before the "protection" one might indicate that immunity powers might shield someone from the wolf kill powers, but not that of the serial killer? It came to me after looking at Caoimhin's powers again, and I find it absolutely terrifying for its implications for the late game, but I'd like to hear other interpretations.

If you can have "fast" kills, it would mean the distinction between "Fast" and "Kills" in the priority list is purposefully deceptive, and I don't really see Unavenger doing that (if the narrator was AvatarVecna, it would be another matter).

[Taffimai]

If you can have "fast" kills, it would mean the distinction between "Fast" and "Kills" in the priority list is purposefully deceptive, and I don't really see Unavenger doing that (if the narrator was AvatarVecna, it would be another matter).

True, thank you.

[Xihirli]

AV is not a busser. At least not in this game.

Why have we agreed on that? AV was a busser last game and the bus ran over me.

[Rogan]

That was me, I am always highly prejudiced against the top few posters, not so much because posting a lot is a thing wolves do, but something which imo helps them. Especially posts like yours that actually also have content as opposed to the jokes that you can just skip over. You're not sus, you're just at the top of my "don't care if we misslynch" list.

This would be especially true if the game started with four wolves, which is what I'd have done as a narrator in a game with a lot of powers including (presumably) night kills on the town side.

What do people think of my theory that the "fast" night power priority coming before the "protection" one might indicate that immunity powers might shield someone from the wolf kill powers, but not that of the serial killer? It came to me after looking at Caoimhin's powers again, and I find it absolutely terrifying for its implications for the late game, but I'd like to hear other interpretations.

Hmm, not a fan of this conclusion. I don't mind too much if die for appearing as a wolf, since this would allow the rest of town to analyze the actual reasons given. But on the other hand, I have to agree the sheer number of posts will make it much harder for anybody to do a satisfying ISO. I am also bound to make more mistakes, especially while I am low on actual hard info. So I can see your point of me being not as helpful as I could be.
I will have to think about this some more.

About the number of wolves, 4 wolves and 2 neutrals would mean 10 townies. This feels a tad bit high, but not unreasonably so.

I don't remember an answer of Fext about his alignment. If he said neutral, this would either mean we have a lier or the hypothesis of "1 survive, 1 killer" is wrong.

- - - Updated - - -

Forgot about the fast kill part:

I think fast and slow are so vague a concept, a fast kill can be possible. On the other hand, we have seen a slow power, and it didn't fit into any other category. Right now, I struggle to think of a power that would benefit from going first and not fit into another category, but I didn't try really hard. It also doesn't seem that useful to speculate on it.

But I would like to know if Book Wombat has some more info about powers.

[Batcathat]

As advertised, here's my ISO on Rogan. I was going to wait until D2 to post it but I figured there's a small but not non-existent chance I'll get killed and I really doubt anything in here will help the wolves.

Anyway, I'll just comment on what I find noteworthy, I might reexamine it in more detail if Rogan and I both live long enough and/or my suspicions against him grow.

Spoiler: ISO on Rogan

Show

Hello everybody.
Gac3 I think you usually tend to live long. Would you mind getting lynched day 1 this time?

I'm sure, he won't mind if you call him Cao. Much shorter.


Sorry Bat. But do you really want to kill me day 1? Remember, as a wolf, I tend to bus my partners
If gac turns out to be a wolf, I probably deserve to die...

In my first game, PJ, I killed the Seer night 1. And Xi(wolf) tried to get me killed for this day 2.

Since I joke about this myself, Xi has a point. I guess I should promise I ain't going to kill at night this time. But I don't expect anybody to believe me...

- - - Updated - - -



Only one game as town. In the second game, my team killed two town seers, but I didn't carry the kill in those cases.
And in love letter, there was no proper Seer to kill.

Seems like Xi and I have something in common. We both get targeted for our pervious games.

Which reminds me...
I am not willing to vote for AV today. Not willing to vote for someone new (to me) either.
I would not like to vote for Xi today, unless I have to do so in order to save myself.

This does not mean I think they are town. But I think, they deserve a chance to play and / or are nice to have around. So, while there is not much to go by, I'd rather lynch someone else.

I think, I will go to bed soon. I hope there will be some interesting posts tomorrow. Good night.

- - - Updated - - -

Before I put away my mobile...
What do you all think is this supposed to mean?



Is there a role who gains power by knowing the role names of other players? Perhaps some kind of death note? Write the (role)name down and the player will die. But this seems quite weak, unless it can be used more than once per phase or has some other advantage.

I suppose this could be a wolf protecting their wolfbuddy AV and/or Xi, but that might be a stretch. Worth remembering if either of them flips wolf though.

Good morning.
About the RP, how about paying as the concept you did not get? Should be save to do. And might be entertaining. Or confusing. Or both.



Do you care to explain why not breaking the tie is a sight wolfread?
Cao was tied as well. Wouldn't a wolf be more likely to vote for one of the other wagons? Both to push a misslynch and to save himself?

Of course I am biased here, since I am one of the two vote wagons myself and I don't want Xi to die early. And I won't expect Cao to vote for himself, that's AVs part.

Defending Cao. Not a good look in hindsight, but I suppose the argument itself is fairly sound.

I hope I will learn your alternative some day.

And thank you for the response. I guess we can agree that Caos vote is a reason to pay attention to him. I wouldn't have voted there, but it's still somewhat early day 1, so there is not much to go by.
I hope Cao himself will give some explanation as well.

I guess there is a serial killer, my reason being the wording of towns victory condition. Three mafia players would be reasonable, but I wonder if we should be prepared for 4. After all, having more evil guys than expected was biting town in the but the last two games.

- - - Updated - - -



I tend to think it's the response to the last game, no evil plan. I can't really blame them.

So, you are a dwarven cleric? Pleased to meet you! Could you cast zone of truth? It would make things so much easier

So you are a cleric of Loki?



If there are 5 or 6 wolves, I will eat my own hat (but not my bat or cat). I could see 4, but I don't really think so. 3 wolves, 2 neutrals. This would be my guess. There might be another neutral, but if this is the case, they will have to have more complicated victory condition than the usual survive or kill all.

Rogan does seem very sure about the number of wolves, but I'm reading it more as overly confident townie than wolf, I think.

Well, if you insist... I will give you my reads. They are very weak, since I am better at mech and I don't have much mech to go by ...

I have some minor town points for Gac3 and Cao. They had a chance to put me at 3 votes but didn't. Both had a weak but valid reason to vote for me. They didn't, so if they want to misslynch me, they are subtle about it. I guess those points will only get relevant when one of us three flips or gets a Seer result.

For Wolf reads, I had the worst impression by you, Snow. Your positioning about Cao seems slightly off. But I am really not comfortable about this case and would not have gone there again if you hadn't asked for it.

More defense of Cao. If Rogan does turn out to be a wolf, I'm giving some town points of my own to gac. Townreading two of your wolf buddies in the same post like that seems a little brazen.

I know and acknowledged this. It might even come back to bite me in the ass, but that's a risk I am willing to take. Worst case, one of them is a wolf and gets some town cred if / when I flip.

So we can hope for a Child of Ariadne claim soon?
But yeah, you are only my top suspect because there is so few to go about. I hope there will be something better to check later.
For what is worth, you also get some town points for encouraging discussion. I probably would check you tonight if I were a Seer, just to be sure.


I'd rather lynch someone else and use non-lethal ways to check them. Seers, Lie detectors, other night powers or plain day observation.
I mean, best case, I am right and we three are town.

Do you suspect Gac3? If yes, why?



What about reading Wombats?



Your logic for the vote seems fine. But I am biased, since I am one of the two vote candidates you could have picked.
Having a vote out is good. Having some reason for the vote is even better. But I don't think the reason to vote for you is good.



Gac voted (one post?) after the first vote count.

Could be seen as backing off a little from Snow, in case she flips town. Then again, I'd probably be more suspicious of someone who was completely confident in a D1 vote, so probably fairly neutral.

If you think you got all wolves day 1, you are wrong much more often than right. But that's something you know, right?
About snow:

Spoiler: Relevant quotes for Snows vote

Show

Wolf!Snow would want to have a townie in the lead. Assuming Cao and Xi (and me) are all town, Snow would not care who gets into the lead, but she would like to have time more pressure. Maybe get a claim out of this, while still having an alternative misslynch ready. When Cao didn't vote for a two vote wagon, Snow did so herself. As a wolf, she doesn't need to be afraid of lynching a teammate, so she can be more bold about pushing wagons.

This would be the case for wolf snow, in rough terms. It's certainly possible, but not clear cut. I am looking forward to see other opinions about this situation.

About Gac3... Well, I am assuming his vague post was directed my way, since he said something about being biased. I might be wrong here, so...
Gac3 Can you tell us what you noticed and why you were vague?

Hello. It's nice to have you here. Did you get a chance to read the thread so far or do you need some time to catch up?

Okay, that's fine. There is not much to go by at this point. But that's typical for day 1.
Did you pay mafia before? On this site or somewhere else? I don't know you, but I am new-ish to the mafia community here, so that might explain things.

I tend to read friendliness as wolfy, but that honestly probably says more about me than anyone else. That said, it's certainly not inherently towny either.

Well.... my QT seems inactive right now as well. Maybe some server problem?

If your questions are not secret, feel free to ask them here. I'll gladly answer some general questions but of course I can't promise to know everything. If your questions are about your role or power, better keep them secret for now.

While it's possible to post without an account, there are times when it is an advantage to have one. When you have a QT with another player, some people Cough AV cough will check the number of views. If you are logged in, you count once. If you are visiting as guest, you can count multiple times. Which looks like the link was shared by many people (the mafia team).

It's probably not important this time, but it might come up another time.

For now, an important info would be: can you post in the QT right now?

I suppose the concern about the QTs not working could be seen as wolfy, since they're likely to suffer more from the problem. But I think a town Rogan would have enough sense of fair play to not want to win thanks to technical problems, so I don't think I'll give points in either direction.

Town points for Elenna. She seems to know the exact wording of the victory condition as well. I agree it does not need to be a serial killer. It feels more likely to me, since a neutral with a specific victory condition like "kill the child of Ariadne" could result in a strange endgame. But this is not a hill I am willing to die on. I don't have enough info to be sure.

To be fair, Cao is suspected by multiple persons, including you. So checking him would be checking someone who might be a wolf.
I am not sure he is town either, I only have sight lean and I am biased about this. It's still enough for me to prefer a non lethal check, but I agree there are no really good targets right now, so going for Cao is a logical move. His flip could shine some light on other players, like Snow or Xi (and for everyone not me, it will shine some light on me).

Hm... possible. I am not going to lock Elenna as town for this knowledge. But I think it's a point in her favor. I wonder if we will learn the win con when a wolf dies.

In PJ there were Neutrals with specific win conditions, but they had to finish their con before the end of the game. So I am under the impression that this would be the norm. Keeping a game going when the sole question is if a certain Neutral will win or lose seems unlikely to me.

That's very interesting. Now, the easy way to be 100% sure would be to be the Killer yourself, but I strongly doubt you would be bold enough to confirm your own existence.
Are you a survivor? A neutral which can win with either side, including the killer?

I hope, you also have tools to protect yourself against him. Otherwise you painted a big target on yourself.

Good hunting for you!

Winning day 1 is possible for neutrals. It happened in Percy Jackson. But it's rare.

Do you have a hint about the identity of the serial killer? Seems unlikely, as it would make it extra hard for the killer, who has a hard job from the beginning, but hey... I'm not aware of a price for asking questions.

Seems very concerned about the serial killer, which could be a wolf hoping to distract from themself.

Hmm, I wonder if every kill power talks about the serial killer. I also wonder if the killer has night kill immunity, but it doesn't sounds like it; there is at least one power that will be effective.

Just to spell things out explicitly:
I am a non-killing town role.
I have no special knowledge about the serial killer, I was only guessing based on what little info I had from the victory condition and my previous experience playing mafia.

I can't rule out AV as a serial killer, but my gut feeling is, history would not repeat itself like that. I'm still unwilling to vote her today anyway.

They can even spell doom for the wolf blocked. Right, Xi?


I will go to bed some time soon. If someone need something from me, may he speak now or forever hold his peace wait till tomorrow.

Hello again. After a good night's sleep and some food, I am now ready to go on here.

I intend to gather quotes and replies in one post, but for the beginning:

QT is working for me again (as well).



Do you have a night kill? If yes, is the serial killer mentioned in your description?

Sorry, this took longer than expected/ planned. I'm a bit distracted and on mobile.



I wouldn't put much weight on the mistake at the vote count. The first count WAS correct, after all. Gac voted later. It's something to keep in mind, but I don't see an advantage of faking the count in this way.

Are you sure about some role being able to check you because you have some secret info? Last U-Pick had a player with the roles list, if I remember correctly.

If you flip town, the players voting you should be checked for a hostile motive and everyone should keep an eye on me to see if I have too much information.
If you are scum, everyone you could have pushed to 3 votes should be checked for a possible team. Yes, this includes myself. I know I am town, but everyone else can't be sure.
And, as Snow mentioned (see below) if you flip scum, Elenna is very unlikely to be in your team. Same for AV and Meta. They could easily change their vote, since they didn't have much reason to vote for you.
Flipping you will only prove your alignment, but it will give hints for multiple other players.

Regarding the read list, many entries are short compilation of info without a read. That's not surprising, since there are not many things to go by and if I had to do a read list, many entries would be "no idea" as well.
But along with the TL;DR part, it looks a bit like you're trying to make up for the lack of real contributions with a lot of empty words.
I like the observation about BCHs ominous presence comment. Bat do you still doubt the warning had a mech meaning? If yes, why?



Well, when there is no good reason to suspect someone as wolf, voting for a fair distribution of the lynch sounds like a good enough reason. Sure, it's only slightly better than random, but what do you expect from the first post of the game?
So, thinking about it some more, I think I should not give you town points for not voting me with a OMGUS, explanation. Maybe even a slight scum lean, since it could be a subtle way to accuse me which didn't work out. Opinions, anybody?

The "Bat do you really want to kill me?" was a joke reply to a vote I don't take terribly serious. But your reading is partly right. I think I am bad at hiding my allies. See love letter. When my joke / distance vote for AV suddenly gained traction and put her in the lead, I was getting nervous. So keeping wolf!me alive might be more helpful than lynching me immediately.

Gac, do you think the mistake stands out in a negative way? What do you think would be the reason to fake it?


I'm not sure if I understand your line of thought correctly. You say Fext didn't use an optimal strategy, so he is scum? The same logic was used by AV last game to push a misslynch. In addition, let's assume Fext has a way to survive a night kill (or every kill by the killer). By going public when the topic of SK was discussed, he doesn't lose much, but gains some support by town. Sure, it could be a trick, but it would be quite bold.


Somehow, I am getting the impression you are suspecting everyone and everything... AV might still be the killer? Why would AV tell us she has some special knowledge about the killer while she is the killer herself? Sure, she gains a bit of town cred, but she gains even more attention. Seems like a bad risk/reward ratio.


Now, those are good questions. I think, there is currently the hypothesis that every killing power has a line about the SK. It would be nice to get confirmation for this, but this would require yet another killing power to be active.
My own vague impression is, Fext and AV had different sources. I could speculate some more, but I am not sure if this would be helpful.



I second Snows questions for Fext.
The parts about Cao are included in my post above. Mostly quoting this since I referenced it already.



The general notion of this post is easy to understand. I was paranoid about AV in PJ as well, which resulted in a killed Seer. Okay, AV got back from the dead and helped town win the game but this was not planned.
The problem I see is the specific plan. You want to get her lynched. Not checked. I'm totally in favor of checking, but simply lynching AV out of principle is a bad move I am not willing to support. See also Snows reply (not quoted, I have nothing to add)



You might be, but I don't speak the language this book is written. But maybe I can learn this language...
I noticed you ask many questions. Why?
Do you have any reads? Any people you don't want to die for other reasons?
And all the questions asked by Meta.



So you don't have a killing power?
Oh, and are you The Three Investigators (Die drei ???, in German)? This would be a hilarious way to hide that you added your role to your Sig.



You seem to be a bit defensive here. It's not your fault people are voting for Cao. But you are still doing so yourself.
Do you think he is a wolf? Why / Why not?
If you don't think he is a wolf, why are you still voting him?

Please note I can imagine a reason or two to vote for Cao, so I don't want to say you are wolfy for doing so. But I want to hear your reasons in your own words.

For you, the question as well:
Do you have a killing power?

Lots of talk but not a ton to go on, I think.

Blades, my gut says you are not a wolf. My brain is saying you are deliberately unhelpful. I hope this will change tomorrow.



I know your position very well. I had similar feelings about AV in my first game.

Snow is a skilled player and very good at avoiding the lynch, even if the lynch would be deserved. She is also right when she said that she is capable of driving the discussion as a wolf.
Your gut feeling can still be right, but I would not put too much emphasis there.

For AV and Fext, I would advise against a vote today. Their public claim let's them stand out, but it seems a bit too obvious for a wolf to do so.

If you want me to elaborate, feel free to ask.

A death activated power is unlikely. There was something in the OP about roles that win by getting lynched being forbidden.



Do you really want me to answer this?

That's a fair and sensible position to take. AV is hard to read and good at manipulation. Not trusting her on reads alone is something I can get behind.

I also can understand your position regarding Cao. It seemed important to me to make sure you are at least a bit committed instead of only voting there as a joke.

Sorry, I didn't remember you already claimed not killing. Thanks for repeating.



Thanks for your answer as well. It's something to remember in case I join a game hosted by you.
I won't clear you for this, but I don't think I should suspect you in particular either.



So, you have multiple powers, at least two are killing? Wow, you really know how to formulate your role concepts!
Since I only have one power, which is kind of situational, it makes me think you are more likely to be non-town. Not necessarily evil, but not town. Of course your powers could also have some serious limits... can you comment?



I have one situational active power and something redacted.

You are right you can't trust Xi. But I think, it was an at least party honest try to help you. Many players here know each other and the way the others are playing. As a new guy, you are missing this background info.
Giving you this insight CAN be meant to deceive you, but it has to be very close to the truth. Otherwise, someone would call the lie.

Your theory is possible. It seems unlikely two players possessing powers targeting the SK specifically. But impossible, but unlikely.
I could see another way, but I will keep quiet about this until it becomes relevant. It's speculation without mech backup anyway.

If your theory is correct, things might sort themselves out tonight, so that's another reason not to vote there.



I Agree there is not that much going for your kill. I agree about the conclusions your flip would yield. In fact, I said something similar myself. But 8 players not commenting mean about half the players are commenting.

I would love a good alternate, yielding even more info or having a better chance of hitting scum. Or at least more people really committing to a read on you. But I am not a Lvl20 wizard. I can't cast wish.


Your explanation about the read list is nice to have. I don't 100% agree about snow, but I can see your point. I also doubt you are allies, so putting her as Town makes me think this is an honest read.
An ideal mafia player definitely could have handled the original list better, but nobody is perfect.

You remain a Town lean for me and I would rather lynch someone else.
I also acknowledge that there are few real alternatives. Snow is possible. Anybody else?

I don't like this, it feels way too much like wanting to lynch anyone but Cao rather than finding a wolf. Though I suppose I might be reading too much into it.

I count at least two as multiple. And I think your posts are meant to be non-committed regarding the number and kind of powers you have.

And sorry, but it's this gibberish supposed to mean something? I don't want to try to Crack a code (which might be forbidden by forum rules anyway, as you know perfectly well).



I am not going to quote everything about you, Cap. Cap. But I want you to know I think your behavior is not very helpful right now. I might be willing to change my vote to you if you are getting closer to an actual valid lynch target, but right now I want to keep it at a pace that matters.

31 Rogan
20 Metastachydium
19 Book Wombat
18 Snowblaze
16 moonfly7
16 Captain Cap
15 AvatarVecna
14 Batcathat
9 CaoimhinTheCape
8 bladescape
6 Fext
6 Elenna
5 Taffimai
5 Xihirli
4 gac3


This is the number of posts each player had. I am a bit surprised about Caos position on this list. I thought he had more posts. After all, he is the top wagon.

Pleasantly surprised by Meta. Activity level alone is not telling much and I probably should reread his posts before I make such a statement, but I get a good, townie feeling here.

Slightly surprised about AV, but I expect some more activity from her later, when there is more material for ISOs. I think she even telegraphed she would be less active this match, since last game took much time and energy to fool Mr Popo. So it's notable, but not alignment indicative.

Supagoof didn't check in yet. He is rarely online on the weekends, so no reason to worry yet.
But I would like to know:
Unavenger how are you going to handle inactivity? Emmy was ready as backup, will you call her? When?

I suppose it could be a wolf worried about an inactive buddy, but probably just concern/curiosity. Though if Rogan flips wolf, maybe we should take a closer look at Supagoof?

Spoiler: Xihirli ISO

Show

Joke vote, NAI.



Defending her joke vote. Minimal wolf lean.



An indirect promise for more activity. NAI on its own.



This could be a hint that Xi has a night kill. A personal night kill is either town or the serial killer. I can't see mafia with an extra kill.
It could also be a way to fish for more info about the powers of other players.



Snow meta / defense. If Snow flips scum, it might warrant another look. NAI otherwise.

There is not much to go by. No big posts, nothing fancy.
I request clarification about the kill power
I don't like the fact that Xi is so quiet, not changing her joke vote to something more substantial or answering the question about the kill power thing. (I am reasonably sure this was asked by at least one person other than me)

A slight scum lean.

Spoiler: Meta-read

Show

But this is Xi, it probably means she is town...

---

Spoiler: gac3 ISO

Show

Weak reason to vote a new (?) Player, so it's unlikely to stick. Worst case, that's a distancing move, but this should not be relevant until one of them flip scum. Till than NAI.



A very subtle attack on me. At first, I was willing to give some town points, now I could see it as a scum move. I don't have the necessary distance so judge.



IRL reasons for being quiet. NAI.
I hope you are not seriously sick / will be fine again soon.



One big catch up post. I already replied to it in some details, so I will keep it short here.
There is some self defense and some weak attacks. No opinion about the Cao wagon. No new vote.

There is one big post to work with and some small. Right now, I have a small wolf lean. But I don't trust myself here, since a somewhat significant part is about me.
I hope we can get some more posts here.
I request an opinion about Cao and Snow.

---

If enough people feel like gac is suspicious, I would be willing to go there. Him being quiet means there won't be much info by flipping him, but if there is a shift in votes to make this lynch possible, it could be telling in itself.

I agree it's unlikely. But that's why I think a shift of votes there would be telling in itself. On the other hand, some people are not happy about the snow wagon, other people are unhappy about Cao. Some don't like both wagons and many don't care one way or the other. So presenting an alternative might pay off.

What do you think about my read on gac?

Yeah. If you are serious, please explain why and how I am supposed to kill the Seer?

Could be a wolf overreacting to a jokey accusation?

I have to admit, I have chuckled.

But I hope to get some more informative and/or alignment indicative posts. Can you help me there, Book?

Unavenger please help me. I'm confused about the time zones. How long till the day ends? Already answered.

Since there isn't much activity at the moment and considering the state of affairs, it is indeed likely we will loose Cao. The only realistic way to change this would be one of his voters to switch to snow.

---

Vote Count:
BladeScape (1): Book Wombat
CaoimhinTheCape (6): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Elenna, Batcathat, Taffimai
Rogan (1): Xihirli
Snowblaze (4): Rogan, Moonfly7, BladeScape, Captain Cap
Taffimai (1): gac3


Not Voting: SupaGoof, Fext, CaoimhinTheCape

Do Rogan usually do vote counts? Not that doing one is suspicious in itself, even if he usually doesn't, but I'm starting to slip into a headspace where anything out of the ordinary is suspicious.

"I find this to be very SUS logic. "
That's your conclusion. SUS is suspicious, right? So if you don't think he is scum for telling us, what did you mean with your sentence?

About the odds, about 1/player_count_game1 * 1/player_count_game2. But since we know AV was SK in game 1 and I am going to assume the games are independent... approximately 1/15. Does this help you?

Yeah, the first to reach at least this vote count for the last time. (So if you drop below the count and get back up, it will reset; but if you go above and get back down, it will remain) This means your vote puts Snow up to the tie, but Cao is still in the lead since he got there first.

Did you mean to put Snow in the lead somehow?

I don't get the connection to my post / questions. Please elaborate.

Some town points for the Spoiler. I have no idea what it is supposed to mean, but a wolf would not need to communicate in code. They have a private chat and are allowed to use it.



An excellent reason for the vote. I was just a bit confused about your wording. You get some town points again, especially if Snow happens to be a wolf.

Okay, I see your point a bit better now.
But at first you were suspicious and changed your opinion later, right?

I disagree about giving town points for the code (since it could possibly be tied to some wolf power or something) but I can see Rogan's line of reasoning.

I know, I was the one to point it out. I guess we are in a kind of gray area regarding the rules. If I had to judge, I would say the post is OK in the context of this game. But I don't have to judge.



Thanks again. I think your position is clear now.

Okay, good job Snowblaze. Very good job.
I think I can lock you down as town now.

Note to self: Check everyone mentioning the victory condition. (Yes, this includes me)
Check the way the votes moved.
Think about the kill power.

Very quick to change opinion on Snow after the flip. Understandable, I guess, but going from top suspect to town lock? Hmm.

Mine works. Did you check other QTs of older games?



Don't stress this too much. Mistakes happen.

You can talk here as much as you like. But It's usually a bad idea to talk to much at night.
Your role interactions happen in the QT. You say what you want to do and can change this till the end of the night. Every role will resolve and, depending on your power, you might get feedback. For specific questions about your power, ask Unavenger in your QT. They will answer when/if they can.

It's kinda funny that Rogan gave this advice but probably ended up talking the most at night. Not suspicious or anything (I think?), just funny.

Do both votes need to be in the same post? I have one player in mind to be checked, but I don't know about the second.

Xi in this case.
Maybe I will find someone else later.

This post is giving me some bad vibes. It could be a wolf, trying to direct towns attention to save targets. AV, Fext and to a lesser degree blades and myself. Also a partly defense of Xi.

Regarding point 5: I explained my reasons already. They didn't change by being wrong. That's all.

The last part feels a bit townie. As a wolf, I would not want to get too much attention, while as a townie, I would want to be noticed to check the reads and reactions.

Overall, mixed feelings. Am I biased here?



Noted. Please remember me to respond to this in more detail if I survive the night.

I kind of like Rogan's defense here, saying it without overdoing it.

I don't know, but a theoretical wolf!Meta would.
In addition, AVs position about Cao did not feel like a bus, but I can be wrong here.

But okay, I trust you about Meta not being Caos partner. You are better about reading people.

For me three reasons.
1) You got Cao lynched. You started the wagon with weak reasons, but stayed there till the end.
2) A logical facility, as it's unlikely the top two wagons are both wolves.
3) You got my alignment right and show the right amount of confidence.

Sure, you still could be a wolf, banking on point 2. Or the SK. Or another neutral. But honestly? I expect you to die tonight. If you don't, I can start to be paranoid again.

Could be a wolf laying the groundwork for trying to get Snow lynched again. Then again, I know the feeling of being paranoid about Snow very well, so maybe not?

The usual victory condition of "survive"? Or something fancy?

And I think you didn't answer when I asked you if you really wanted a public kind of claim from me. If you think it would be helpful for town, I can answer tomorrow. I won't spill the beans at night. Let the wolves keep guessing if I can hurt them or not.

In another game, I would have said "I'm Pikachu" but this is not fitting this time.

Okay, I promise one way or the other, you will get your answer tomorrow. And I have to admit, your reading is reasonable and I probably wouldn't have brought it up again if you hadn't quoted me.

If I remember right, Fext had tools to hunt the killer, while AV has a kill power which will only work on the killer.
Fext also wanted to lynch the killer, which would be suboptimal if he could kill the killer at night. So tools to hunt don't need to be tools to kill.

Another interpretation would be that AV and Fext have the same power because one of them has a list of the powers of other players and can use each of them once. This would be really powerful, but it might be possible. Especially if there are other limits.

Let me recap:

Fext, AV and Book claim neutral (goodish).
Cao was Wolf.
There probably are 2-3 wolves left.
There is 1 SK.

16 players at start
That's 12 non-neutral.
Worst case 8 Town.

Please check my recap for mistakes.

AV said she wasn't Anti SK, which I assumed to mean she can win even with a living SK. Which would make sense for a neutral.

I think Fext meant to say he was neutral when he said book also claims neutral.

Both interpretations could be wrong.

Possible, sure. But let's wait for the answer to Snows question:





I won't stop you from formulating your own guesses. They are as good as mine at this point.

As far as I know, a standard SK can win together with a Survivor?

Maybe it was in the recruitment for Crazy Idea?
I am quite sure I had read this somewhere...

Tonight is extra long. More than 24 hours.

ROGAN: Xi
FEXT: Xirhli, Bladescape
SNOW: Xihirli, bladescape
BATCATHAT: Rogan

Night action vote overview. Since blades seems unlikely to target himself, it seems like Xihirli and I are the preferred targets right now.

I can live with this - at least I hope so...



Never!
You are trying to create a false sense of urgency. A classical scammer move. You should die immediately

Huh? So this is my hidden power.. makes sense. But where is the role reveal?

Ha! You nearly got me. But now I know your role. You are Elan, the Bard. And you used your illusion magic to fake your death.

Two people?
No comment about the truth of the Elan reveal

Fair. I won't ask you for more speculations. Maybe after the death of a scum member with a power related to the identity.



Neal..? Ahh, yes! Of course, you are neutral after all... I'm sorry for taking you for someone else who is totally not related to you in any way. I'm so stupid sometimes.

You know, it's a pleasure to talk to you, but I'm afraid we might disturb everybody else. They probably want to sleep at night. But let's talk again tomorrow, okay? *Wisper* And don't worry, your secret is save

Could be a wolf trying to gather information but backing off when confronted, but it's understandable for townies to be curious about other roles too, I guess.

AV as the serial killer had 3 powers. A (public) daykill with no way to protect against. A night kill immunity. A nightly scry for role and alignment. She also had the ability to swap any of her powers to something else (random, didn't use it). So pretty strong and in conjunction with her skills, enough to win the game.
She posted her complete power descriptions here some posts ago.


Book Wombat, the True Neutral Neal, is a natural. Not town. But he seems nice, so he can be an honorable townie as far as I am concerned.

I do love the alliteration of it. Trusting neutrals seems like it could be risky, but assuming BW is honest, I agree that he's probably quite far down the list of potential problems for town.

I hope, this random comment was not made by anther player of this game. Outside communication is not cool...

A good point, regardless of alignment.

Okay, that's a relief.

And now for something completely different:
It feels like I could die tonight and I still would have more posts than some of the other players at the end of game...
Does this mean I speak to much? Or are those other players too silent? (Goof is excused for the moment, because of WE)

A wolf trying to "remind" everyone that he's supposedly at the risk of getting killed? Granted, that's probably a stretch.

Since you asked for wolf reads, I am going to assume it is either an harmful power or something to detect evil. I would rather not die (at least, not for receiving one vote), but a scry or something like that would be fine.
If I had to pick between Gac and Cap, I would go for Cap. Gac volunteering seems more likely to come from town.
In theory I have a vote left, but I don't really suspect either one. So unless I find something suspicious, I won't vote for another one.

I will also go to bed soon. If you need me now, hurry. Otherwise, wait til tomorrow.

Volunteering while also saying volunteering seems towny? Possibly sincere, but certainly no town points.

I have to admit, I would have missed the timing thing if it wasn't called out multiple times (before I called it out myself).
I mean, come on.... who is going to read the EoN time? It's common knowledge that the night takes 24 hours. Except when it doesn't.

I start to see a pattern here. I go for the surface level in my reads, Snow takes another step. If she is right again, I should probably adopt her stance.


Yeah AV was sarcastic. But, from my point of view, her sarcasm was missing the point. The serial killer could win while the survivor was alive in CI. So my assumption that this could be true in this game as well really doesn't seem far fetched. To be fair I could see the other side as well: In the first UPick, AV had to kill everyone to win, so she could assume the same victory condition this time. Well, let's try to check the actual rules, okay?
Book as our resident survivor: Can you win together with the serial killer?



Yeah, sorry about this. Someone mentioned wolves might want to spam posts, so actual info is harder to find. That is not my intention, but it could still have that effect. I will try to limit myself to somewhat important posts. But no promises I won't add a joke post from time to time.



I wonder if your willingness to actually do the ISO means you are a wolf this time. After all, last game you were town and could not stop talking about ISOing me, without doing so.

Can you explain the first point of the ISO? I don't quite get it.

Don't worry, I won't start a case against you for using copyrighted material.

Theory time: No wolf was bussing, because at least one wolf was inactive. We had two players not voting and Xi was still voting for me at EoD.

I am not sure about your POE, but I can't find a mistake in your logic. I'm fine with leaving things as they are at the moment and wait for the death flips of tonight.



I don't like the confidence for a night 1 read on AV. But someone made the point that AVs busses tend to be more informed than an placeholder vote. I would like you to expand on this tomorrow (assuming it's still relevant and possible).

I agree about gac's oddly confident statement. Might be worth keeping in mind if gac or Rogan flips wolf.

Thanks for the answer. I think this is pointing to AV not being the SK. AV said the killer would have to kill everybody, you say you could win at the same time. If AV had been right, she might have had too much information.



Sure, this would be possible as well. Not something I would suggest, but nether outlandish enough to call it an attempt to push a misslynch.
I think the way you kind of attack people clearing you for the Cao vote is more likely to be town than wolf. As a wolf, you would be OK with not being suspected, while as a townie, you admit you are likely to manipulate people.
This could be manipulation again, but this is WIFOM territory. I won't engage in this kind of game against you. I can only lose, since you would poison both cups and drink the antidote beforehand. Or, as town, you might simply die to take me with you, assuming you think I am a wolf.

Spoiler: Vote Counts

Show

I think many people were commenting on the players voting for Cao. Let's take a look at the Snow voters.

I start the case that Snows attack sounds fishy and openly in defense of Cao.
It takes some time and many shifts of votes at other places, but suddenly we are at 3 votes for snow, 4 for Cao. Moonfly and blades turn my weak case into a counter-wagon.
Captain Cap is next to join the wagon. Here, Cao had a change to shift votes from Cap to Snow, putting her in the lead. TODO: Check the timing of votes
Next count, Batcathat joined the Cao wagon, Cao had unvoted.
Next count, Cao finally goes after Snow, but it's 5 vs 6 at this point, so no danger of actually hitting her unless a Snow voter changes sides.
Gac votes to turn it into a tie.

---

Only looking at the votes, not the stated reasons:
Captain Cap and Gac are the players who made the wagons a tie (which still favored a Cao lynch, according to the rules).
Of those two, the captain looks worse, since Cao was not on Snow at this moment, so there was a real chance to turn the wagons around.

Going by memory, Batcathat was fast to respond to the Captains vote. I don't know what Cao was doing at this time. If this was intended as a serious attempt to turn the wagons around, the wolves either didn't coordinate goof enough or they were afraid of being too obvious.

A very paranoid reading would be, Snow, Bat and Cao are a team. Snow made her weak case, but it gained more traction then expected and the only counter wagon that gained any speed was Snow. So instead of trying to create another wagon, they decided to sacrifice Cao and use it as a way to gain credibility for both wolves.
I doubt this really is the case, but if Snow or Bat flip wolf, it could be worth checking this theory again.

Going purely by the votes, Blades, Captain Cap and gac are suspicious. Checking the stated reasons for the votes should be done as well, but right now I don't have the time. I might come back to this later or someone else can do this for me.

Could be more prepping for another try to lynch Snow, but I don't know. The paranoia feels kinda genuine, though I've been fooled by Rogan seeming genuine before.

Overall, a slight wolflean on Rogan. No massive red flags but a few things that looked iffy and while being wrong D1 is understandable (I was so sure about my vote on Jeen last game) defending Cao isn't a great look in retrospect. That said, I haven't looked this close at anyone else yet this game, so I can't quite rule out me just wanting to find a wolf (and/or being subconsciously salty after the last game ).

[Book Wombat]

About my last minute vote, that post it was actually planned to be just for my "telegram" but since Caoimhin was nagging me to vote I just thought why not and moved my vote.

But I would like to know if Book Wombat has some more info about powers.

Not really? I do have an active (which isn't Fast or Slow) but it's pretty normal.

[Elenna]

Since everyone is posting night talk anyways, I guess I might as well join in.

If anyone bussed Caoimhin, I think it's most likely to be AV or Taffimei. Maybe BCH. I'd suspect BW of bussing, maybe, but they're the uncounterclaimed Survivor.
@Snowblaze: is there a reason you don't think Taffimei was bussing?

Of the Cao voters, I'm inclined to think moonfly is town. Partly because it seems unusual for a wolf to make a counterwagon on someone Cao was pretending to townread, but mostly just gut feeling. Their posts feel like someone who is actually trying to wolf hunt.

I agree with those that have said the Captain Cap/Caoimhin interaction feels like planned distancing. Specifically the part where Cao keeps pushing Cap to take a side, and then Cap 'gives in' and votes Snow. Seems like it could be an excuse to avoid blame for defending a wolfbuddy.
I also feel like there were others not picking a side but Cao was focused on Cap doing so. Would have to go back and reread to see if that makes sense.

gac tying it up to see what others would do is something I might have done as town in his place, so I don't really think it's as suspicious, although it could definitely also be an excuse to not vote a wolfbuddy.

bladescape is cryptic and I don't know how to read them.

I seem to remember that Rogan had some stuff I didn't like near the start of the day. Going to have to ISO him to see if that feeling holds up. He did hint at knowing the victory condition, but it seems the wolf victory condition also hints at an SK so I'm not sure how much weight to put on that.

I also wouldn't be surprised if there was a wolf in the people who didn't vote either Cao or Snow (Xi, Supagoof, and Fext) but none of them have much to really analyze.

@Fext please confirm if you're claiming neutral or town?

I haven't read up fully, but I might not get to do so before night ends.


That was me, I am always highly prejudiced against the top few posters, not so much because posting a lot is a thing wolves do, but something which imo helps them. Especially posts like yours that actually also have content as opposed to the jokes that you can just skip over. You're not sus, you're just at the top of my "don't care if we misslynch" list.

I'm extremely skeptical of the suggestion that people should be putting out less information, especially in a forum like this where a lot of people don't talk much as it is. I think this is more likely to be a playstyle difference rather than a wolf tell, though.

[moonfly7]

In general, it puts all the votes and discussions in a new, more informed light. In our specific case, if Cao flips town, the fact the arguments used against him are not particularly strong could suggest some hidden motives: perhaps there were too many 2-vote wagons wolves and wolf!Snowblaze decided to take the matter on her hand; or maybe Snowblaze motives were genuine and some wolves simply decided to pile on a safe target. If Cao flips mafia, the recent speed wagon on Snowblaze might turn out to be an attempt by the wolves to save their companion and in any case it would merit our attention.

Why not? No flip is ever going to give insight on every player, especially in the first days, when there's not much to form strong opinions on. Besides, 50% of the player base is involved in some way or another in this matter, so it doesn't seem bad at all to me for Day 1.

- - - Updated - - -


If Snowblaze overtakes you, we can apply the same reasoning about intel gathering, so using this argument there's no reason to prefer one wagon over the other.

These two are arguments for why killing Cao offers a lot more information that snow, not going to argue that one way or another just providing context, but it does show a lean towards killing Cao purely on an information gained basis, which was a solid argument.

More importantly, Cao, I see you're rallying against the arguments for your lynching (and reasonably so), but you're failing to give a good reason we should lynch someone else in your place.

Here you pointed out that Cao was completely failing to provide a better option, which is 100% correct looking back, and was honestly pretty suspiscious. but You kind of just, drop this and never bring it up again desptie the fact that he never does resolve it in a satisfactory manner beyond claimimng to be trying to build wagons when he really wasn't.

But why? He's already the top wagon, and the second wagon is equally good to me. Do I have to put a vote on one of them just to look good?

- - - Updated - - -


Matter of fact I don't. You can pretty much flip the conclusions you would get in the two cases.

- - - Updated - - -


And how do you deal with them? What's your proposal? This is pretty in line with my previous point:

I'm including this because it's a good example fo your point: You were saying you were for both wagons and iffy on which was correct, and this does show that. My point however, wasn't that you weren't claiming that but that it seemed to be a weak claim and that you seemed to easily swayed for someone who didn't just claim to be a fence sitter, but claimed to be a fence sitter and then produced very strong arguments for Cao while presenting few to Snowblaze at all, which was weird considering where your vote eventually went.

To be fair I specified "good reasons". Despite your work to go lead after lead, you still don't make more compelling arguments than the ones Snowblaze has against you.

This bit, this bit right here, is where you say Cao has no arguments more compelling than Snows, and you were being pushed to make a vote so it makes sense you had to choose onje or the other, but I want it noted that up until this point you were presenting as equally suspiscious of both.

That's wise.

In the end I'll go with Snowblaze. Between Cao and her she's been the most aggressive one with the first real lynching push, at the same time without a strong case at her side. Moreover, the fact Cao resisted relatively well to the pressure and read Snowblaze as town, basically renouncing at the possibility of getting on Snow's wagon without raising suspicions and thus decreasing his survival chances, would make a decent case for towniness, better than the ones for Snowblaze in my opinion.

This right here is whats getting me, you have not once harped on Snow for anything besides minor comments inside of your arguments with Cao which were directly related to you being neutral, and you certainly never gave any real examples unlike the honestly compelling ones you gave about Cao. Up until the moment you said it I had, at the time, been convinced you were going to be voting for Cao. And then you swapped your vote. As you had previously stated the Cao vote gave more information,and while you sighted her agrresive stance as the reason why you voted for snow, you had several much better thought out points that you had brought up for Cao which you threw out for the single point that she was being aggressive with her case that had no strong evidence. Something that, you'll notice, you said Cao was doing to other people before this, and then included other evidence against him. Whereas SNow had basically just that going for her.
Granted you did include your argument for Cao's towniness being his defense of snow, but even at the time people pointed out that it could have been a wolf ploy, although I can't really get onto you for that because it was one of the main reasons I thought he was town as well, but see, I hadn't been giving good evidence against him before an about face.

Can you exactly point out how I was specifically anti-Cao in the sense that I though he was a wolf? It was the entire point of our discussion that I didn't have particularly strong opinions on either Cao and Snowblaze: it seems pretty convenient you're ignoring that considering you were active part of that conversation and were one of the 3 people pushing me for a vote (one of those a confirmed wolf).
Honestly, it seems that no matter what would I have done, you had decided to pile on me in any scenario.

- - - Updated - - -


Was it because you "believed" Cao or because antagonizing someone who just voted for the counter-wagon would have been counterproductive for the wolf cause?

I admit my original post was not clear: You weren't solely anti-cao, but your arguments against snow were weaker and you gave them much less info and evidence, and yet you ended up voting for her. And as for me piling on you in any scenario, 2 things here: 1, I questioned your about face back in the intitial posting but dropped it quickly mostly because I was at that point personally invested in Cao being a Town because of how much effort and belief I'd put in, and I didn't want to pull a vote off of Snow by antogonizing you. 2, I have been consistantly questioning everyone on even small things before Cao's wolf flip, and after some of my points have been paranoid in there questioning, so forgive me for revisiting a previous question I had, since I don't know who to trust and was so wrong about Cao, I'm revisiting everything I had previously passed over, you were on that list and inr etrospect there was more there than I had first seen.

As for the insinuation that I'm a wolf, I'd have to be a pretty horrible one, unless I was relying on a very risky misdirection play. I was all in on Cao being innocent from the begining because I gut read Snow as a wolf with very little evidence beyond a hunch, so clearly I wanted to defend him because I was certain my hunch was right. Looking back, the evidence did point to the contrary, I'm still not 100% on snow but I consider them Town!snow for now. But back to my point, if I was a wolf I should have left myself with questions and ways out if I was wrong, everybody else on the Snowblaze wagon wasn't 100% because it was day one, I was the only person who was absolutely certain and 100% on cao's innocence. Now, I absolutely look suspicious because he was a wolf, and I deserve to be investigated because I was so vehement in his defense. But if I was a wolf, wouldn't I have done what literallye everyone else did and at least pointed out other options and addressed flaws Cao had to make myself look more legitimate as a town? Especially as it became clear that Cao was dying.
I believed Cao because I got tunnel vision on snow, and because of his assersion of their innocence, something you yourself mentioned. But I was hooked before that because of Snow's vote on him, and I got tunnel vision and didn't see the signs because I was fixated on Snow.
The argument for me being wolf is, in essence, that I'm a bad player and didn't know what I was doing even with access to the Wolf QT to help me. And I am new to this, so it is a plausible argument. Obviously I don't like it because I know I'm town, but you can't take that assertion at face value.

Also Cap, I'm not saying your a wolf, I don't think this is conclusive, but it's something I think we need to look at. And it is raising my suspiscions, but I'm not sure on anything yet.

---------Update---------

Could be seen as backing off a little from Snow, in case she flips town. Then again, I'd probably be more suspicious of someone who was completely confident in a D1 vote, so probably fairly neutral.

Then you should absolutely be skeptical and suspiscious of me, I was 100% on my day one theory, and I was very very wrong.