Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

[Snowblaze]

Back, only every time I'm about to hit reply a new wallpost shows up. Slow down, let me catch up!

@Rogan: my first point was a jokey reference to the game I ran, in which I began with: "End night zero. Snowblaze was killed, she was the Evil Mastermind, town". (Villains were town in that game.)

I was the one who mentioned the AV being more likely to want cred thing. My logic was something along the lines of "if AV was a wolf who thought Caoimhin was going over, they would have actually pushed Cao to try and get more towncred instead of just leaving their vote there but not doing anything with it". Though, this being AV, that's not the most confident of reads.

Also I'm not saying gac3 is a wolf, I'm saying "I don't think your particular reason to townread gac3 is accurate".


@bladescape glad I can at least entertain you, if not read you.

@Elenna I think Taffimai has been towny independently of her Caoimhin vote, I'll get the quote in a minute.

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My townlean on Taffamai has become stronger. I really liked the post where she voted for Caoimhin. The tie thing seems like something town are much more likely to fix on than wolves. In fact I think I can remove her from my POE.

Taffimai townread reasoning.

[Captain Cap]

These two are arguments for why killing Cao offers a lot more information that snow, not going to argue that one way or another just providing context, but it does show a lean towards killing Cao purely on an information gained basis, which was a solid argument.

In the passage you quoted I'm literally saying there's basically no difference between the two wagons, and the set of people involved was pretty much coinciding: how did you get the bolded part is beyond me.

Why not? No flip is ever going to give insight on every player, especially in the first days, when there's not much to form strong opinions on. Besides, 50% of the player base is involved in some way or another in this matter, so it doesn't seem bad at all to me for Day 1.

If Snowblaze overtakes you, we can apply the same reasoning about intel gathering, so using this argument there's no reason to prefer one wagon over the other.

Here you pointed out that Cao was completely failing to provide a better option, which is 100% correct looking back, and was honestly pretty suspiscious. but You kind of just, drop this and never bring it up again desptie the fact that he never does resolve it in a satisfactory manner beyond claimimng to be trying to build wagons when he really wasn't..

I was simply saying what I said: that he didn't give good reasons to vote others in his place. There's no subtext in which I'm saying what he's doing is suspicious and he's leaning wolf. You're just making it up.

I'm including this because it's a good example fo your point: You were saying you were for both wagons and iffy on which was correct, and this does show that. My point however, wasn't that you weren't claiming that but that it seemed to be a weak claim and that you seemed to easily swayed for someone who didn't just claim to be a fence sitter, but claimed to be a fence sitter and then produced very strong arguments for Cao while presenting few to Snowblaze at all, which was weird considering where your vote eventually went.

"Easily swayed" = pressured by 3 people to take a stance because it would have been useful for town

About the arguments "against" Cao, see above

This bit, this bit right here, is where you say Cao has no arguments more compelling than Snows, and you were being pushed to make a vote so it makes sense you had to choose onje or the other, but I want it noted that up until this point you were presenting as equally suspiscious of both.

Did I use Cao's arguments to justify my vote on Snowblaze? I didn't: matter of fact, I went exactly against them, as he town read Snowblaze.

At this point a question arises: are you misunderstanding all my arguments on purpose?

Also Cap, I'm not saying your a wolf, I don't think this is conclusive, but it's something I think we need to look at. And it is raising my suspiscions, but I'm not sure on anything yet.

Are you saying I'm suspicious but that I'm not a wolf? That's a weird stance.

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Now, I absolutely look suspicious because he was a wolf, and I deserve to be investigated because I was so vehement in his defense. But if I was a wolf, wouldn't I have done what literallye everyone else did and at least pointed out other options and addressed flaws Cao had to make myself look more legitimate as a town? Especially as it became clear that Cao was dying.

Trying to appear an honest town fooled by a wolf is a decent option too.

[Snowblaze]

@Moonfly: your points make a lot of sense, but there's also this:

Spoiler: Caoimhin quote

Show

I gave a reads list a page ago. I said there were people I suspected (gac, Book, BCH) and voted gac, then Book. I am doing more in this game to go after leads than you. I've show how I'm trying to deal with them: Give answers and take a side, or you get voted.


Captain Cap, you're leaving your random vote out and only passively saying my lynch would help. You've given no indication as to what you think of other players and do not care between my lynch and Snow. You're not committing to anything and no matter who gets lynched today, we don't learn anything about you. Take a side, or get voted.

Which I really don't think a wolf says to their partner.

@Captain Cap: Moonfly's interpretation isn't unreasonable, in fact it's pretty close to my own. I just found a counter-argument and decided I didn't want to start tunneling you.

If you're town I get it, it's frustrating to be misunderstood, but not everyone who misunderstands you is a wolf.

[Captain Cap]

If you're town I get it, it's frustrating to be misunderstood, but not everyone who misunderstands you is a wolf.

I mean, take just the first quote, at the beginning of my previous post: he's literally getting the opposite of what I was saying. Wouldn't that seems a little intellectually dishonest?

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And I'd also like to remind that he was one of those pressuring for votes when Cao was the leading wagon, along side who we learned was a wolf.

[moonfly7]

Are you saying I'm suspicious but that I'm not a wolf? That's a weird stance.

I'm saying your suspicious but last time I jumped the gun on a wolf read I was very much wrong and I'm not going to make that mistake twice.

As for intentionally misunderstanding you: I think there are multiple interpretations to what you said and how you said it. I certainly believe mine to be right but if you meant them a different way I am no mind reader.

Also you completely ignored my point about not going after you specifically, you were one of multiple off the cuff posts where I called out random things I thought were suspicious but didn't have major evidence. I had several posts like that I can pull up if you would like.

I'm not piling on or chasing you specifically, I am and have been dropping multiple theories just so they can get out there specifically because I am unsure. I only provided a large and targeted response after you demanded evidence for my reasoning. I specifically said it wasn't conclusive and the whole original comment on you was in a post initially about 2 other players specifically mentioning that the interaction seemed more suspicious looking back.
I am not the only Or first person to mention it looked forced, but I am the one you responded to with the most vehemence, which I can only assume was because you've suspected me of being wolf for a bit(a fair suspicion) or because I had mentioned it much earlier. Honestly if you hadn't responded the way you did I wouldn't have put nearly as much energy into what is literally a hunch which still doesn't have a ton of hard evidence.

[Book Wombat]

*eats popcorn*

[Snowblaze]

I mean, take just the first quote, at the beginning of my previous post: he's literally getting the opposite of what I was saying. Wouldn't that seems a little intellectual dishonest?

Okay, in that case you do have a point. But if we allow for confbias on Moonfly's part the interpretation isn't altogether unreasonable.

How about this?
- a newbie wolf would likely be pretty hesitant to blatantly defend their partner as hard as Moonfly did without a strong case for town!Caoimhin
- some of the ideas Moonfly suggested earlier this phase were pretty controversial and unlikely to be popular, I can't really find a wolf motivation behind them.

@BW I'm jealous. I really wish I was a Survivor rn.

[moonfly7]

@Moonfly: your points make a lot of sense, but there's also this:

Spoiler: Caoimhin quote

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Which I really don't think a wolf says to their partner.

Fair enough, not like I have experience in the game to know. I don't think that's enough for me to discount my feelings on the interaction but I also wasn't wolf reading the man to begin with, so for now it doesn't matter.

I mean, take just the first quote, at the beginning of my previous post: he's literally getting the opposite of what I was saying. Wouldn't that seems a little intellectually dishonest?

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And I'd also like to remind that he was one of those pressuring for votes when Cao was the leading wagon, along side who we learned was a wolf.

Intellectually dishonest is a fun phrase I haven't heard in awhile.

I'd like to point out that Snow just said I covered points that had raised her suspicion, and it's a comment from Cao that stops her from going to far with it. So if I'm wildly misinterpreting then it clearly isn't just me whose doing so, maybe not on that specific part but clearly I wouldn't be alone in my confusion if your right.

[Captain Cap]

As for intentionally misunderstanding you: I think there are multiple interpretations to what you said and how you said it. I certainly believe mine to be right but if you meant them a different way I am no mind reader.

Can you tell me from what interpretation of this

we can apply the same reasoning about intel gathering, so using this argument there's no reason to prefer one wagon over the other

you get this?

These two are arguments for why killing Cao offers a lot more information that snow

Also you completely ignored my point about not going after you specifically, you were one of multiple off the cuff posts where I called out random things I thought were suspicious but didn't have major evidence. I had several posts like that I can pull up if you would like.

How is this relevant? I'm genuinely asking. Are you saying that because you're not focusing on me you're likely not a wolf?

I am not the only Or first person to mention it looked forced, but I am the one you responded to with the most vehemence, which I can only assume was because you've suspected me of being wolf for a bit(a fair suspicion) or because I had mentioned it much earlier.

The other reason I'm responding to you with more vehemence, it's because I didn't get from the others the impression they were deliberately misinterpreting my points.

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Intellectually dishonest is a fun phrase I haven't heard in awhile.

I like how it sounds.

[Rogan]

But I would like to know if Book Wombat has some more info about powers.

About my last minute vote, that post it was actually planned to be just for my "telegram" but since Caoimhin was nagging me to vote I just thought why not and moved my vote.


Not really? I do have an active (which isn't Fast or Slow) but it's pretty normal.

Hmmm... *ominous background music*

Back, only every time I'm about to hit reply a new wallpost shows up. Slow down, let me catch up!

@Rogan: my first point was a jokey reference to the game I ran, in which I began with: "End night zero. Snowblaze was killed, she was the Evil Mastermind, town". (Villains were town in that game.)

I was the one who mentioned the AV being more likely to want cred thing. My logic was something along the lines of "if AV was a wolf who thought Caoimhin was going over, they would have actually pushed Cao to try and get more towncred instead of just leaving their vote there but not doing anything with it". Though, this being AV, that's not the most confident of reads.

Also I'm not saying gac3 is a wolf, I'm saying "I don't think your particular reason to townread gac3 is accurate".

Sorry about that. I'll try to slow down.

Ah, any chance this flip is in a sig somewhere? It sounds familiar. Anyway, I understand the point now.

I Agree that AV is hard to read. Your argument was the strongest point in favor of AV not bussing I was remembering. I was wondering if there are other arguments for someone to be sure AV wasn't bussing this time.

And sorry, which argument for gac do you mean exactly? It's hard to tell without a quote.

Hmm... not a wall post, but still longer than expected. Sorry.

[Captain Cap]

How about this?
- a newbie wolf would likely be pretty hesitant to blatantly defend their partner as hard as Moonfly did without a strong case for town!Caoimhin
- some of the ideas Moonfly suggested earlier this phase were pretty controversial and unlikely to be popular, I can't really find a wolf motivation behind them.

I wouldn't swear to him being a wolf, that's for sure (and I mean this in a very practical sense), but I certainly find odd the way his arguments are presented.

[moonfly7]

- some of the ideas Moonfly suggested earlier this phase were pretty controversial and unlikely to be popular, I can't really find a wolf motivation behind them.

Which was the point of the statements to begin with. As I've said I'm unhappy with the way people are liberally using how they expect things to be and people to act based on past precedents as a basis for reasoning. Not that it isn't a useful tool but I think that if most people are doing it it helps to have someone pulling at the less likely more controversial strings in case it pulls up something useful.

Can you tell me from what interpretation of this

you get this?

This can be answered quite easily: I apparently did a massive goof and missed that part of the post. Not gonna lie that looks bad on me. Not sure it's enough for everything your putting into this, but it really does look suspicious as hell. Feel free to not believe the admittedly convenient "I missed that" explanation but it's the truth and it's all I can tell you.

How is this relevant? I'm genuinely asking. Are you saying that because you're not focusing on me you're likely not a wolf?

No, I'm not. I'm just telling it like it is. I am intentionally going back and looking through the more obscure and less likely options and broaching them because I feel like the investigation has stalled(although it is night so I guess that makes sense? No idea) and because I think we can't overlook anything. If you disagree that's fine but I think it's the best use of my time right now.

The other reason I'm responding to you with more vehemence, it's because I didn't get from the others the impression they were deliberately misinterpreting my points.

I can't control how you view what I say, I can only tell you how I see it. If that's how you interpreted what I said that's how you saw it and nothing I say will likely change that.

[Captain Cap]

I am intentionally going back and looking through the more obscure and less likely options and broaching them because I feel like the investigation has stalled(although it is night so I guess that makes sense? No idea) and because I think we can't overlook anything. If you disagree that's fine but I think it's the best use of my time right now.

I'm definitely not disagreeing with the idea per se, just be more careful to avoid oversights like the one above.

[Book Wombat]

Hmmm... *ominous background music*

*sweats*

I'll say what it's about coming Day. Maybe.

[Rogan]

*sweats*

I'll say what it's about coming Day. Maybe.

Deal. Maybe.

[moonfly7]

I wouldn't swear to him being a wolf, that's for sure (and I mean this in a very practical sense), but I certainly find odd the way his arguments are presented.

Ok, so I'm sure I did a horrible job of explaining it, but that is exactly what I'm saying about you. Everything is presented weird and felt off and I was reading that as stilted and forced. But unless your being stilted and forced now, I'm starting to think that's just how you write.

I'm definitely not disagreeing with the idea per se.

Your just questioning it as a defense against me being a wolf, which it isn't necessarily meant to be. But it feels like your reading my post as an intentional series of accusations against you, when I'm basically just providing evidence for a flimsy spitball, one of several of its kind. Most of which have been ignored by the people they were about, and your the only one who responded the way you did. But as above I think we might be giving each other similar vibes. That being said even if that is the case I don't think it should clear you from my "keep an eye on it" list or me from yours. You certainly have valid reasons to be suspicious, and I clearly feel I do as well.
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As for oversights like the one above, I'm probably going to make several more and likely so will others, this sucker is 15 pages long already and reading through everything is bound to lead to mistakes. But obviously I'll do my best to make sure I don't do it again.

[Metastachydium]

Which was the point of the statements to begin with. As I've said I'm unhappy with the way people are liberally using how they expect things to be and people to act based on past precedents as a basis for reasoning. Not that it isn't a useful tool but I think that if most people are doing it it helps to have someone pulling at the less likely more controversial strings in case it pulls up something useful.

A nice strategy that I wholeheartedly approve of! (Although there are some players, such as Xihirli or AV, whose actions are very difficult to properly parse without taking past precedent into account.)

This can be answered quite easily: I apparently did a massive goof and missed that part of the post. Not gonna lie that looks bad on me. Not sure it's enough for everything your putting into this, but it really does look suspicious as hell. Feel free to not believe the admittedly convenient "I missed that" explanation but it's the truth and it's all I can tell you.

A lie easily demonstrated to be a lie by a single click is a horrible lie. I believe you, for whatever that's worth.

[moonfly7]

(Although there are some players, such as Xihirli or AV, whose actions are very difficult to properly parse without taking past precedent into account.)

Agreed. But since I lack the knowledge to do so I'm more than happy to put on my conspiracy theorist hat, I must admit it's tin foil embrace is even more comforting than i remember it.

[Metastachydium]

Agreed. But since I lack the knowledge to do so I'm more than happy to put on my conspiracy theorist hat, I must admit it's tin foil embrace is even more comforting than i remember it.

My, but that's the beauty of such games! These are among the few contexts where such a headgear is a most becoming accessory!

[Rogan]

My, but that's the beauty of such games! These are among the few contexts where such a headgear is a most becoming accessory!

Like that?

[Metastachydium]

Like that?

Exactly like that! (Too bad it's too late to propose Our Reptilian Overlords as an option for my role, by the way.)

[moonfly7]

Exactly like that! (Too bad it's too late to propose Our Reptilian Overlords as an option for my role, by the way.)

Don't you dare bring the reptilians into this, they still haven't forgiven me for that faulty sun lamp fiasco.

[gac3]

I never did this so I'm going with my instinct. Probably doesn't matter at this point since votes are in.

Elenna

Why have we agreed on that? AV was a busser last game and the bus ran over me.

If it is relevant, I'm not sure why we agree because I'm not sure exactly why you think so but would you believe comments from Cape are the root of my reasons?

[Rogan]

Spoiler: Elenna day 1 ISO

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Voting Xihirli because she screwed me over in the first UPick game by being unkillable.
(Okay, we would have lost that game regardless, but still.)

Random vote, NAI.

I agree that Cao's vote doesn't make complete sense.

IMO, if you want to build wagons, it's better to have two or three larger wagons rather than several smaller two-vote wagons. Harder for wolves to hide that way if one of the wagons is a wolf.

But it sounds like you didn't think BCH was particularly wolfy either, right? Actually, was there a reason you picked BCH over any of the other players with 1 vote on them?

Yeah, CaoimhinTheCape, a small suspicion is better than my previous joke vote.

---


I could see that, but I can't imagine anyone having the power to tell when lies are made in the public thread, that sounds way too OP. I think the role you're referring to is something more like "once per night, make a statement in your QT and I'll tell you



Would they have had the power to mysteriously talk their way out of getting lynched even when they should clearly be lynched?


I don't know if I agree with Rogan's conclusion here - based on the victory condition, it does seem like there's likely to be anti-town neutrals, but that doesn't necessarily mean there's a serial killer. But this does kinda imply that Rogan has seen the town victory condition (or he's bluffing, or Unavenger posted the victory condition somewhere and I missed it).

So, town points to Rogan, I guess? I feel like clearing people based on "do they know the victory condition" is a bit sketchy rules-wise, though.


IMO Seers are much better used to check suspicious people, rather than to confirm the towniness of people, since it's more useful to know that someone is a wolf for sure than to know that someone is town for sure.
Plus, if a seer checks someone suspicious and finds out that they're town, then they know that a wolfy-looking person is actually town. That's more informative than knowing that a towny-looking person is town, since it lets you know that you need to rethink your suspicions, instead of just confirming what you already thought was right.

If it weren't for the above post about the victory condition, I'd be voting Rogan here.


At this point, do you think Cao is more likely to be a wolf than the average player? Or is this still your initial joke vote?

Pointing out Problems with Caos reasoning and voting there. Town points.

Mech guess and a joke about Snows alternative role. NAI

Talk about the victory condition and the serial killer. At first, I gave town points for this, but after the flip it could come from a wolf as well. (Which also means I lose town points from Elenna)

Opinion about good power usage. It's not bad advice in general, but maybe a bit missing a point. I was reading Cao as town, but other people disagreed. From their point of view, they would be checking a possible wolf, not confirming a Town read.
Elenna also opens up the possibility to vote me later. I can see her doing this as a wolf.

Asking for clarification how serious a vote for Cao is. Wolf!Elenna would want to know if Cao is really in danger. Town!Elenna would want some commitment. Not sure here, but I think it's slightly more likely to come from a wolf.

Yeah, this is why I don't pay attention to the view count. Sometimes it just does really weird things, even taking into account people who aren't logged in.

Also, I was able to post in my QT just now, without being logged in.

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Oh, nevermind. After making my test post, the "make a post" button in my QT disappeared. Weird.

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Also, it may or may not matter in this game, but sometimes it can be advantageous to be able to post in the QT without revealing your name, so that can be a reason to not log in.

QT mechanics. It was prompted (partly by me, no less) so I can't blame her. NAI.

AV's clearly the serial killer again, we should lynch them immediately.


Wait, why four kills? Fext didn't say they had a kill, they just said they had "tools" to find the serial killer.


...shush.

NAI, as far as I am concerned.

Oh, per cycle. My bad, I thought they were saying four kills per night.

NAI again.

Bladescape being annoyingly cryptic. Not that unusual for him. I'd like to know what these reasons are but I suspect he's not going to say.



I strongly suspect at least one of them is neutral. That being said, two people with what sounds like specifically anti-SK powers is a lot, given that SK it's already quite a hard role to win with. Probably the SK also has other strong powers (similar to last game when they were immune to all kills except the lynch). Even so, AV did win as SK last game, but that's just because AV's good - I felt like the balance last game was fine, the S!K certainly didn't need two other people countering them. Although AV didn't actually say that their kill only works on the SK. Maybe AV is targetting a larger group of people and their role just happens to specifically mention the SK.

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Oh, and my QT still isn't working.

Asking blades for reasons is understandable at surface level. But a gut feeling says, she might be afraid he really had reasons and wanted to know what she did wrong in order to avoid it later. Small scum lean.

SK killer talk. SK!Elenna might complain about two powers capable of hurting her here.

Is anyone else still having issues with their QT? I still can't post in mine. I've tried clearing cookies for quicktopic.com and refreshing the page.

Good point. I checked an older QT and I could post there.
Unavenger, I'm curious, are you able to post in my personal QT? Alternatively, could you maybe just send me a new QT? Sorry.

Technical stuff, I refuse to use this.

So, there have been some points for every alignment except true neutral.
For the moment, I think I can remove her from the list of possible SKs, but that's not a very confident read.

I could also see some amount of OMGUS in my read. But I end up with a slight wolf lean at the moment. I will check her night posts as well to see how they change this read.

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(My read was also influenced by gacs vote)

[Metastachydium]

So, there have been some points for every alignment except true neutral.
For the moment, I think I can remove her from the list of possible SKs, but that's not a very confident read.

Were everyone wondering why there are two roles with at least some anti-killer tools a serial killer, we would be swimming in serial killers (granted, that would explain why there are so many abilities meant to counter them, but y'know a faction of serial killers would really just be a bunch o' dogs by another name).

On a side note, I'm leaning more towards townreading her. I kind of liked her stance on the business with the Cape.

[moonfly7]

Were everyone wondering why there are two roles with at least some anti-killer tools a serial killer, we would be swimming in serial killers (granted, that would explain why there are so many abilities meant to counter them, but y'know a faction of serial killers would really just be a bunch o' dogs by another name).

On a side note, I'm leaning more towards townreading her. I kind of liked her stance on the business with the Cape.

I don't know, multiple serial killers could be their own thing so long as they needed to kill the other Serial killers to win.

[Supagoof]

I don't know, multiple serial killers could be their own thing so long as they needed to kill the other Serial killers to win.

... like the Highlander, there can be only one.

[gac3]

... like the Highlander, there can be only one.

I did randomly have an idea for a game where everyone was a serial killer and I didn't tell anyone. Made me wonder how long the game could go before people realized.

[moonfly7]

... like the Highlander, there can be only one.

Is that a hard written promise from the narrator or are we once again making assumptions based on past experiences and what it's been like before? I think using the existing precedent for knowledge is well and good, but information and how many of a role there is can change. I'd rather suspect it now and be wrong than be blindsided later on.

[Metastachydium]

I did randomly have an idea for a game where everyone was a serial killer and I didn't tell anyone. Made me wonder how long the game could go before people realized.

Much everyone (barring the Day 1 lynch) would have died during Night 1, so…