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  1. - Top - End - #631
    Firbolg in the Playground
     
    Metastachydium's Avatar

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Do you mind if I add this to my sig?
    It's all yours!

  2. - Top - End - #632
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    ClericGuy

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    frown Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Metastachydium View Post
    It's all yours!


    I would have to remove my Seer claim, otherwise it would not fit.
    Maybe I should create an extended Sig and include this and some other quotes there...
    I'll think about it.
    Last edited by Rogan; 2021-10-20 at 10:12 AM.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions



  3. - Top - End - #633
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    Batcathat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post


    I would have to remove my Seer claim, otherwise it would not fit.
    Maybe I should create an extended Sig and include this and some other quotes there...
    I'll think about it.
    Just make sure you don't include any information that might end up accidentally helping the wolves, like a certain bibliophilic marsupial who shall remain nameless.

  4. - Top - End - #634
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    ClericGuy

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    Just make sure you don't include any information that might end up accidentally helping the wolves, like a certain bibliophilic marsupial who shall remain nameless.
    Oh come on... Do you really think someone would actually look there?

    Spoiler: Context
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    Last game, Book Wombat posted his role in his extended signature and I spotted it. This made Book our night target n2, killing a protective role. And my Wolfbuddy AvatarVecna used it to create a case against Bat, which made him pretty suspicious the rest of the game.

    Spoiler: Even more context
    Show
    I was not sure if I should actually use this info, so I asked the narrator first if this was legal and my team later if they wanted to use this info.


    - - - Updated - - -

    And done! One extended sig.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions



  5. - Top - End - #635
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    BlueWizardGirl

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Lol. I like the quote from me. Speaking of which, sorry for being unproductive today. I've had a long few days and I just want to curl up and rest for a while.

    Will hopefully be able to contribute usefully IRL tomorrow, but in the meantime I'll switch my vote to Supagoof. Because closer wagons mean more analysis later on.
    Last edited by Snowblaze; 2021-10-21 at 04:28 AM.
    I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
    Werewolf games won: 24
    Werewolf games lost: 14
    Games as town: 23.5
    Games as neutral: 5.5
    Games as wolf: 9
    Games narrated: 1
    Deaths: 17

    Extended Signature

  6. - Top - End - #636
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    bladescape's Avatar

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    I'm just here to watch everyone dance.

    Wait, that's not dancing?

    Damn.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I thought the gunshots was just the accompanying music.
    "Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"




    My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!

  7. - Top - End - #637
    Bugbear in the Playground
     
    ClericGuy

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    Lol. I like the quote from me. Speaking of which, sorry for being unproductive today. I've had a long few days and I just want to curl up and rest for a while.

    Will hopefully be able to contribute usefully IRL tomorrow, but in the meantime I'll switch my vote to Supagoof. Because closer wagons mean more analysis later on.
    Yeah, I like it as well. Okay, right now, the opposite would be better, but hey... I still have a good feeling for this game.

    I think you did enough on Day 1 so being quiet now is not going to hurt town. If nothing else, it will make it easier to see what the other players are doing.





    Vote Count
    Captain Cap (3): Rogan, Metastachydium, Batcathat
    Fext (2): Gac3, Elenna
    Supagoof (2): Taffimai, Snowblaze
    AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna




    Supagoof I expect some reasons for your vote. Self defense, while NAI in itself, won't do.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions



  8. - Top - End - #638
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Thoughts on yesterday wagons:

    People who voted CaohiminTheCape:
    AvatarVecna: placeholder vote on Cao that lasted to the end. Doesn't look like distancing to me, I would say not a wolf.
    Metastachydium: joke voting a companion doesn't seem a good idea. Not a wolf.
    bladescape: town vigilante.
    Snowblaze: definitely not a wolf.
    Batcathat: before they voted Cao, the situation wasn't too hopeless for him as he could still get Snowblaze in the lead with a self-preservation vote. Too risky for a distancing move, too clunky for a bussing attempt. Not a wolf.
    Taffimai: late day vote, while Cao was already the leading wagon. It might have been bussing, but nothing else about her says wolf.
    Book Wombat: the only claiming survivor.

    After these considerations, I think for today we should focus on Snowblaze's wagon:
    Captain Cap: I'm town (for a more detailed reason you shouldn't lynch me, at least not today, see below).
    Moonfly7: pressured for main wagons votes when Cao was on the chopping block, some clumsy mistakes make him look not particularly careful in his reads: perhaps he doesn't really care as long as a wolf isn't lynched? On the other hand, as others already pointed out, he quite went out on a limb to defend Cao, not very wise for a scumbuddy.
    Rogan: pressured for main wagons votes when Cao was on the chopping block, and when the day was nearly over (and Cao was still in the lead), suggested a possible wagon on gac3, but without starting it: maybe the Snowblaze's one didn't get enough traction for wolf!Rogan's taste, but he still didn't want to leave it without some assurance first? A desperate move to find a more appealing wagon?
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    If enough people feel like gac is suspicious, I would be willing to go there. Him being quiet means there won't be much info by flipping him, but if there is a shift in votes to make this lynch possible, it could be telling in itself.
    Moreover, by Snowblaze's initial hunch (that was correct at least regarding Cao's alignment), 2 wolves on the leading 3 wagons (Cao, Rogan, Xihirli) would have been a good reason for Cao to add a 4th one in the mix (and now we Xihirli was town).
    Quote Originally Posted by Snowblaze View Post
    I was thinking a wolf maybe wouldn't want to draw attention to themselves by voting for one of you/Xihirli - doing that without a good reason would look like exactly what you suggested. Also there's the possibility that Caoimhin is partnered with one of you/Xihirli and doesn't want to push a partner into the lead.
    Suspicions aside, with the claimed power he's a potential seer, if not better. I wouldn't touch him until we have a chance to test him.
    gac3: last vote on Snowblaze, perhaps a last attempt to save Cao? Also, I couldn't find even a little justification, just a plain vote. Then there are various points about things that shouldn't clear him and "soft" volunteering to be bladescape's target (when Xihirli was the leading option).
    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    I'm not sure I support the logic for giving me town points here. Because, yes I did try to avoid calling them out, but if I was a wolf, I probably wouldn't have mentioned it at all. Hard to say for sure. I haven't been a wolf in so so long.
    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    I want it pointed out that while I am not a wolf, I don't think Capes vote should clear me or even make me look better. If it's the vote I'm thinking of, it was for a reason that was incorrect and easily proven wrong. So if we were both wolves, it's an easy distancing move that could be used without having to give a real reason for moving the vote off me.
    Quote Originally Posted by gac3 View Post
    You can use it on me. Unless it will kill me. Can't guarantee it will be useful without more info but feel free.
    Honestly, they seem to me more an attempt to look good than anything.
    Nothing else really caught my eye: lot of posts and not much substance. Wolf lean.


    And now it's time for my proposal:

    Let me live another day to (try to) lynch me tomorrow
    (A plan that mix the distrust toward me and my powers to get something useful out of my potential death)

    My powers:
    Once per NIGHT you may choose a player: they are role blocked tonight (Fast Priority and other Roleblock Priority abilities cannot be blocked).

    Each time you role block a member of the Mafia or a Serial Killer, you get a passive -1 to your execution vote, but each time you role block a member of the Town or a Survivor you get a passive +1 to your execution vote. This is not recorded until it kills or saves you, and even then, the specific number is not given.
    I didn't use my power last night (I wasn't too confident about hitting a baddie, so I preferred to stay put), thus at the moment my vote count is +0.

    The idea:
    Tonight I attempt to roleblock someone. The next day comes and you get me to a certain number of votes. Once I reach the established number, it's the turn of my target (let's call them Bob). Thus two "tied" leading wagons.

    The possible outcomes:
    • I'm a lying bastard and I didn't target Bob. The vote count isn't altered. I die because my wagon was the first one to form. One less baddie around.
    • I die flipping town. You lost one of yours, but at least you learn something about Bob: they're town or they have a fast power.
    • I survive and a wolf or a serial killer dies. We did it, guys!
    • I survive and a townie dies. Welp, guess I'm a lying bastard and I should be killed at next opportunity.
    Last edited by Captain Cap; 2021-10-20 at 03:20 PM.

  9. - Top - End - #639
    Ogre in the Playground
     
    Chimera

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Definite Town:
    Bladescape
    Moonfly7(Of course myself on my own list)

    99% sure town:
    Rogan
    Snowblaze
    Elenna
    Avatar Vecna
    Bookwombat: Technically a neutral, but as someone said before, he’s nice enough he can be an honorary towny

    Unsure/no honest clue:
    Taffimai
    Gac3
    Supagoof, I am not 100% on why he’s a wagon
    BatCatHat

    Waffling with which roll:
    Fext, leaning town for now but still unsure
    CaptainCap, Not nearly enough evidence for a 100% confident wolf read, but enough that I’ll vote Cap for now
    Metaschydium, no hard evidence or much of a reason for it, but Meta feels a tad off and suspicious to me. Keep an eye out but otherwise I wouldn’t drop a vote
    Batcathat, mild wolf lean here but very very light, I’ve got less than a gut feeling on this one, more a mild bone nudge.



    Not super important, but I felt like posting why I put Elena in town, because the vibes felt right to me.
    Spoiler: Elena
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    I agree that Cao's vote doesn't make complete sense.

    IMO, if you want to build wagons, it's better to have two or three larger wagons rather than several smaller two-vote wagons. Harder for wolves to hide that way if one of the wagons is a wolf.

    But it sounds like you didn't think BCH was particularly wolfy either, right? Actually, was there a reason you picked BCH over any of the other players with 1 vote on them?

    Yeah, CaoimhinTheCape, a small suspicion is better than my previous joke vote.

    ---


    I could see that, but I can't imagine anyone having the power to tell when lies are made in the public thread, that sounds way too OP. I think the role you're referring to is something more like "once per night, make a statement in your QT and I'll tell you



    Would they have had the power to mysteriously talk their way out of getting lynched even when they should clearly be lynched?


    I don't know if I agree with Rogan's conclusion here - based on the victory condition, it does seem like there's likely to be anti-town neutrals, but that doesn't necessarily mean there's a serial killer. But this does kinda imply that Rogan has seen the town victory condition (or he's bluffing, or Unavenger posted the victory condition somewhere and I missed it).

    So, town points to Rogan, I guess? I feel like clearing people based on "do they know the victory condition" is a bit sketchy rules-wise, though.


    IMO Seers are much better used to check suspicious people, rather than to confirm the towniness of people, since it's more useful to know that someone is a wolf for sure than to know that someone is town for sure.
    Plus, if a seer checks someone suspicious and finds out that they're town, then they know that a wolfy-looking person is actually town. That's more informative than knowing that a towny-looking person is town, since it lets you know that you need to rethink your suspicions, instead of just confirming what you already thought was right.

    If it weren't for the above post about the victory condition, I'd be voting Rogan here.


    At this point, do you think Cao is more likely to be a wolf than the average player? Or is this still your initial joke vote?
    I got town vibes from this, not 100% why but it felt solid to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    I don't really like this, I get the temptation to use people's opinions to target if you have an investigative-type power, but it feels a bit like a wolf fishing for information to see who would be a good kill target. Same reason we generally avoid talking at night.
    This feels 100% like something someone on town who was legitimately concerned about an information leak would say. Good town points for Elena there.



    Spoiler: Captain Cap
    Show
    I'm not going to repost any evidence I've already dropped, and as I've said, I am not 100% on my Cap vote, I would say I'm maybe 65% on him being hostile, he's only getting the vote because as of right now I'm unsure of everyone else, and he did seem way to panicked over my earlier small post that blew up into something big, which I only mention because both of these posts:
    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    ...

    I have no idea what I was thinking when I said Captain Cap was a planned bus.

    I think I misremembered where his vote went.

    Because he made such a big deal about it.


    Quote Originally Posted by bladescape View Post
    Tbh to me, Cap is definitely the most suspicious from that whole sequence.


    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Spoiler: Vote Counts
    Show























    Going purely by the votes, Blades, Captain Cap and gac are suspicious. Checking the stated reasons for the votes should be done as well, but right now I don't have the time. I might come back to this later or someone else can do this for me.
    Happened around the same time as mine and didn't get near as big of a reaction, and note I got a bigger reaction than this before I explained my reasoning and Cap said that he thought I was purposefully misinterpreting it. Could be nothing, but I was out of the 2 the easiest to suspect because I hit harder than Blade and Rogan, both of whom also voted for Snow and probably should have recieved a response from cap, but if he sent one I didn't see it. He only responded to me, possibly because I was an easier target to paint as a wolf? Possible, or he was suspicious of me for the Existing valid reasons, which is why I can't 100% go on Captain Cap. He has my vote for now, but if there's a stronger argument later that I like I'll probably swap to that.


    _____Update______

    Caps suggestion is gonna take me some big think time, I'm not sure what to think of it. For now my votes gonna remain the same, but I have to say I appreciate the ingenuity of the suggestion, although the complexity of getting everyone to vote the way you want them too agree too sounds a tad to hard to pull off, but I'm willing to pull my vote off you and try it if other people agree to it.
    Last edited by moonfly7; 2021-10-20 at 09:49 PM.

  10. - Top - End - #640
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Apparently I missed Elenna voting Cao. Anyway, no particular suspicions about her. Looking back, doesn't feel like distancing or bussing.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    although the complexity of getting everyone to vote the way you want them too agree too sounds a tad to hard to pull off, but I'm willing to pull my vote off you and try it if other people agree to it.
    It actually might be a plus. Assuming today we agree, if tomorrow someone tries to tamper with the plan it would be an indication of something scummy.

  11. - Top - End - #641
    Ogre in the Playground
     
    Chimera

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Cap View Post
    Apparently I missed Elenna voting Cao. Anyway, no particular suspicions about her. Looking back, doesn't feel like distancing or bussing.

    - - - Updated - - -


    It actually might be a plus. Assuming today we agree, if tomorrow someone tries to tamper with the plan it would be an indication of something scummy.
    Fair enough. I'm game for the plan if you are, but I will say that depending on who dies the plan might have to be scrapped, especially if it the night events give more info.

  12. - Top - End - #642
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    Book Wombat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Cap View Post
    The possible outcomes:
    • I'm a lying bastard and I didn't target Bob. The vote count isn't altered. I die because my wagon was the first one to form. One less baddie around.
    • I die flipping town. You lost one of yours, but at least you learn something about Bob: they're town or they have a fast power.
    • I survive and a wolf or a serial killer dies. We did it, guys!
    • I survive and a townie dies. Welp, guess I'm a lying bastard and I should be killed at next opportunity.
    It doesn't matter if they have a Fast/Roleblock power or not, they still count as having been roleblocked.

    - - - Updated - - -

    List of Night 1 Actions (kind of):
    • Xihirli roleblocked AvatarVecna with fire (??)
    • AvatarVecna took no action with a Priority lower than 2 (??)
    • bladescape killed Xihirli with a crossbow (!)
    • UNKNOWN tried to kill AvatarVecna with a pistol (??)
    • AvatarVecna protected by means unknown from UNKNOWN (??)
    • AvatarVecna gained feedback by means unknown (??)
    • Rogan used a lie-detecting power on SOMETHING (??)
    • Captain Cap targeted NOBODY (??)
    • Survivor power was useless
    • Mafia kill failure (?)
    • Serial Killer failure (?)
    Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-10-20 at 12:32 PM.
    Fleeting dreams of paper wings.

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  13. - Top - End - #643
    Barbarian in the Playground
     
    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It doesn't matter if they have a Fast/Roleblock power or not, they still count as having been roleblocked.
    Really? That's even better.

  14. - Top - End - #644
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    Book Wombat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Cap View Post
    Really? That's even better.
    Powers with higher/same priority still activate while powers with a low priority are blocked.
    Fleeting dreams of paper wings.

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  15. - Top - End - #645
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    Supagoof's Avatar

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    All righty - it's been a busy day IRL, so it takes a bit to catch up from all the activity since I left yesterday. I think I'm there.

    Rogan wants ideas more then self defense, no worries. I'm still sus on Captain Cap - his behavior with day one votes was causing my senses to tingle. His confirmation on maths and analytics prove to me, enough, that he's not novice to the game. So I'm sticking with him.

    Fext - around at night, quiet during the day, everyone waiting to see what he'll say....hmmm. Still feeling sus on him.

    Taffimai - I get it, and I like it. Independent thought and conclusions that lead to not jumping on either the Cap or Fext wagon. I don't like that it's me, but pressure is always a good thing. Getting a townread.

    Which is why I'm also not surprised to see Snow jump second on it. That is her usual mode of operations.

    Lots of talk in signatures. Anyone paying attention? Close attention?

    Bookie continuing to be amusing as neutral, I can't vote him in this game at all I think.

    Rogan - coming to defense for people's MOs, is his usual MO in my experience. Of course, that experience had him as a wolf, so he still remains sus to me.

    Blades - nothing surprising and not surprising at the same time.

    AV - she's sitting back probably enjoying all the speculation on what her powers are. I don't quite buy into her as having the same powers as last game. (which I did skim a bit to understand her powers, I do need to do more depth to pull the threads from that game that are constantly being referenced in this game. Hey - do you all remember that one game....is a terrible basis in any new game BTW - just saying.)

    Others I've missed I'll get back to eventually.

    Oh, and I'm not sure how the lie detector thing works, but I'm town. And I'd be happy to state that in a stand alone post to make it easier (might be that it doesn't work when you use the words town/wolf in the same post?)

    An also, blockers and I should talk. I'd hate for you to trip over me. Would be a bad night if ya did.

    So yeah, sticking with Cap for now.
    Last edited by Supagoof; 2021-10-20 at 03:49 PM. Reason: Point change
    I'm usually late to the party, but it's a great time when I get there....
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    Legionary of Protection
    The Legion, endures....
    Quote Originally Posted by Lex-kat View Post
    It wasn't that easy. Supagoof's just that good.
    Quote Originally Posted by Shadow View Post
    This is LLD, which, I shouldn't have to tell you, will not bow to your math because it was DESIGNED to ruin it!
    Quote Originally Posted by Murska View Post
    Summary:
    Supagoof has won the game and withdrawn. He was Epic

  16. - Top - End - #646
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Gonna have to think about Cap's suggestion a bit more, but off the top of my head, some issues with it:
    • We'd have to pick tomorrow's lynch target tonight, giving one less day of discussion and analysis
    • We'd probably be losing a lot of discussion during the day when this plan is implemented. In past games, usually when there's an obvious lynch target most people just drop a vote and leave instead of providing analysis on other players.
    • If you turn out to be a wolf (and the target is a townie), you've delayed your lynch two days. With this many kills, we could be at or pretty close to endgame by that point.
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  17. - Top - End - #647
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    Book Wombat's Avatar

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Lots of talk in signatures. Anyone paying attention? Close attention?

    Bookie continuing to be amusing as neutral, I can't vote him in this game at all I think.
    1. *sweats*
    2. Hooray!
    But if only you knew the truth...
    Also going to add that to my extended signature if you don't mind.
    Last edited by Book Wombat; 2021-10-20 at 01:11 PM.
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  18. - Top - End - #648
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    His confirmation on maths and analytics prove to me, enough, that he's not novice to the game. So I'm sticking with him.
    So I guess you don't think it's worthy to wait and have the possibility to gain more from my death than you would get now.

  19. - Top - End - #649
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    ElfRogueGirl

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Oh and Cap, you put bladescape in your "voted for Caoimhin" list when he actually voted for Snow. Doesn't really matter though as he's pretty clearly the town vig (unless someone else steps forward and says they're the one who killed Xi).
    I'm Chaotic Good! Ish!

  20. - Top - End - #650
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    RedKnightGirl

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Not posting day 1 is not good for town, but not posting on the weekend is normal for Goof, as far as I know. So I agree with your general idea, but think Goof would merit an exception for the start.
    That's a fair point, but I'm not really seeing a rush of midweek activity either.

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    Supagoof, I am not 100% on why he’s a wagon
    In this game, people analyse other people's posts and voting patterns for signs of suspicious behaviour. Even in posts by townies, you're usually going to find something that seems off, because people make mistakes or just think differently. By not posting in the early game (while making sure not to get auto-lynched), you evade notice and, by the time you become active around day 3 or 4, most of the survivors will already have clearly formed suspicions about other players, making it less likely they'll vote for you.

    There is no reason to think Supagoof is a wolf, but as a long-term strategy, it is good husbandry to lynch a player with very low activity if you can afford to do so on day 2 or 3, so wolves in future games are less inclined to do this and town has a better chance of finding them. Of course this viewpoint is not universally supported, but detractors can speak up for themselves.
    78% of DM's started their first campaign in a tavern. If you're one of the 22% that didn't, copy and paste this into your signature.

  21. - Top - End - #651
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    Chimera

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Taffimai View Post
    That's a fair point, but I'm not really seeing a rush of midweek activity either.



    In this game, people analyse other people's posts and voting patterns for signs of suspicious behaviour. Even in posts by townies, you're usually going to find something that seems off, because people make mistakes or just think differently. By not posting in the early game (while making sure not to get auto-lynched), you evade notice and, by the time you become active around day 3 or 4, most of the survivors will already have clearly formed suspicions about other players, making it less likely they'll vote for you.

    There is no reason to think Supagoof is a wolf, but as a long-term strategy, it is good husbandry to lynch a player with very low activity if you can afford to do so on day 2 or 3, so wolves in future games are less inclined to do this and town has a better chance of finding them. Of course this viewpoint is not universally supported, but detractors can speak up for themselves.
    Personally I think goofs defense of consistently being slow to post on weekends should be taken into account. It certainly sounds legit to me.

  22. - Top - End - #652
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    We'd have to pick tomorrow's lynch target tonight, giving one less day of discussion and analysis
    You can always say, hell with it and let's do something else. There's always the option to bail out from the plan. But if I die today, you lose an option entirely.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    We'd probably be losing a lot of discussion during the day when this plan is implemented. In past games, usually when there's an obvious lynch target most people just drop a vote and leave instead of providing analysis on other players.
    This is a game in which everyone has a power, I'm sure there would still be much to discuss about, but anyway this is a reasonable counterpoint. I wonder if withdrawing information about my target for a certain period of time would help.
    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    If you turn out to be a wolf (and the target is a townie), you've delayed your lynch two days. With this many kills, we could be at or pretty close to endgame by that point.
    If I'm a wolf I die tomorrow and you could still get a wolf today.
    Last edited by Captain Cap; 2021-10-20 at 01:21 PM.

  23. - Top - End - #653
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    ClericGuy

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Cap View Post
    Thoughts on yesterday wagons:

    Spoiler: People who voted CaohiminTheCape:
    Show

    AvatarVecna: placeholder vote on Cao that lasted to the end. Doesn't look like distancing to me, I would say not a wolf.
    Metastachydium: joke voting a companion doesn't seem a good idea. Not a wolf.
    bladescape: town vigilante.
    Snowblaze: definitely not a wolf.
    Batcathat: before they voted Cao, the situation wasn't too hopeless for him as he could still get Snowblaze in the lead with a self-preservation vote. Too risky for a distancing move, too clunky for a bussing attempt. Not a wolf.
    Taffimai: late day vote, while Cao was already the leading wagon. It might have been bussing, but nothing else about her says wolf.
    Book Wombat: the only claiming survivor.

    (TL;DR: No wolves bussing)

    After these considerations, I think for today we should focus on Snowblaze's wagon:
    Captain Cap: I'm town (for a more detailed reason you shouldn't lynch me, at least not today, see below).
    Moonfly7: pressured for main wagons votes when Cao was on the chopping block, some clumsy mistakes make him look not particularly careful in his reads: perhaps he doesn't really care as long as a wolf isn't lynched? On the other hand, as others already pointed out, he quite went out on a limb to defend Cao, not very wise for a scumbuddy.
    Rogan: pressured for main wagons votes when Cao was on the chopping block, and when the day was nearly over (and Cao was still in the lead), suggested a possible wagon on gac3, but without starting it: maybe the Snowblaze's one didn't get enough traction for wolf!Rogan's taste, but he still didn't want to leave it without some assurance first? A desperate move to find a more appealing wagon?

    Moreover, by Snowblaze's initial hunch (that was correct at least regarding Cao's alignment), 2 wolves on the leading 3 wagons (Cao, Rogan, Xihirli) would have been a good reason for Cao to add a 4th one in the mix (and now we Xihirli was town).

    Suspicions aside, with the claimed power he's a potential seer, if not better. I wouldn't touch him until we have a chance to test him.
    gac3: last vote on Snowblaze, perhaps a last attempt to save Cao? Also, I couldn't find even a little justification, just a plain vote. Then there are various points about things that shouldn't clear him and "soft" volunteering to be bladescape's target (when Xihirli was the leading option).



    Honestly, they seem to me more an attempt to look good than anything.
    Nothing else really caught my eye: lot of posts and not much substance. Wolf lean.



    And now it's time for my proposal:

    Let me live another day to (try to) lynch me tomorrow
    (A plan that mix the distrust toward me and my powers to get something useful out of my potential death)

    My powers:

    I didn't use my power last night (I wasn't too confident about hitting a baddie, so I preferred to stay put), thus at the moment my vote count is +0.

    The idea:
    Tonight I attempt to roleblock someone. The next day comes and you get me to a certain number of votes. Once I reach the established number, it's the turn of my target (let's call them Bob). Thus two "tied" leading wagons.

    The possible outcomes:
    • I'm a lying bastard and I didn't target Bob. The vote count isn't altered. I die because my wagon was the first one to form. One less baddie around.
    • I die flipping town. You lost one of yours, but at least you learn something about Bob: they're town or they have a fast power.
    • I survive and a wolf or a serial killer dies. We did it, guys!
    • I survive and a townie dies. Welp, guess I'm a lying bastard and I should be killed at next opportunity.
    A somewhat complex Mech plan? That's exactly my cup of tea!

    But about the vote analysis first: I can agree about the Cao wagon, assuming we don't learn somebody was lying about some things.

    My reason for suggesting the gac wagon was simple, I didn't like the snow wagon that much (which I told you right at the beginning), but I didn't want to kill Cao either. Leaving snow would not have made much of a difference on its own, in fact it would have made the situation slightly worse, since two big wagons are better to analyze than multiple small. But if someone had agreed to my case on gac, it could have created a wagon with at least some chance of success. The vote movement would have been interesting, no matter about the result. Please remember, I was advocating to check Cao at night (and might have done so myself).

    You want to lynch gac now. Can you go back and read my day 1 case and give your opinion?

    Now, your plan.
    As far as I can tell, your power description is in line with the things you have said before. It does mention a survivor and a serial killer.
    (Which could mean there are more than 1?)

    If we compare it to Xihirli, your power seems to be a bit weaker, but not too significant. If you invented this yourself, you did a nice job.

    I could see your plan working. But if you are lying, you are a wolf that
    Won't die today
    Will be ignored tonight and can do whatever you want
    Might survive tomorrow as well (if you have another vote manipulation power than you claim)

    Depending on the exact execution of the plan, you could also choose which townie will die tomorrow. Another disadvantage.

    There is also the risk of a plan made in public: the wolves can run interference, even if you are a townie. For example, they could kill your target, so we either have to try again or kill you without additional advantages.

    I will have to think about this some more before I make my decision...

    About the fast or roleblock power, they might be a problem...
    Unavenger Can you tell us what happens when a Roleblocking Power with a rider effect targets a fast or roleblock power? If Xihirli was still alive, could she set someone on fire who had a fast power?
    Last edited by Rogan; 2021-10-20 at 01:24 PM.

  24. - Top - End - #654
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    RedKnightGirl

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Taffimai View Post
    That's a fair point, but I'm not really seeing a rush of midweek activity either.

    In this game, people analyse other people's posts and voting patterns for signs of suspicious behaviour. Even in posts by townies, you're usually going to find something that seems off, because people make mistakes or just think differently. By not posting in the early game (while making sure not to get auto-lynched), you evade notice and, by the time you become active around day 3 or 4, most of the survivors will already have clearly formed suspicions about other players, making it less likely they'll vote for you.

    There is no reason to think Supagoof is a wolf, but as a long-term strategy, it is good husbandry to lynch a player with very low activity if you can afford to do so on day 2 or 3, so wolves in future games are less inclined to do this and town has a better chance of finding them. Of course this viewpoint is not universally supported, but detractors can speak up for themselves.
    I got ninja'd, and then by the time I could write that down, I got ninja'd again. It no longer applies now.
    78% of DM's started their first campaign in a tavern. If you're one of the 22% that didn't, copy and paste this into your signature.

  25. - Top - End - #655
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    You want to lynch gac now. Can you go back and read my day 1 case and give your opinion?
    I'll look again at it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Will be ignored tonight and can do whatever you want
    Someone could still check me tonight.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Might survive tomorrow as well (if you have another vote manipulation power than you claim)
    That's reasonable. But town seems to have the means to take care of the baddies even at night, this would help a little.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Depending on the exact execution of the plan, you could also choose which townie will die tomorrow. Another disadvantage.
    Another reasonable problem. But if I choose someone particularly trustworthy or important, you'll always have the possibility to question me and decide to abandon the plan.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    There is also the risk of a plan made in public: the wolves can run interference, even if you are a townie. For example, they could kill your target, so we either have to try again or kill you without additional advantages.
    We could mitigate the problem by making a list from which I'll choose. Town would have some decisional power and the target would still be unknown. If someone messes up with the plan anyway, you would still have the option to lynch me or whatever you want to do with me, but still, you would have options.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    About the fast or roleblock power, they might be a problem...
    [B]Unavenger [B] Can you tell us what happens when a Roleblocking Power with a rider effect targets a fast or roleblock power? If Xihirli was still alive, could she set someone on fire who had a fast power?
    If Book Wombat is right, and they seemed quite sure, there shouldn't be a problem, but yeah, it would be better to wait for a response from Unavenger.

  26. - Top - End - #656
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    Metastachydium's Avatar

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    To the good Captain's plan, I'm gonna say a tentative no. Why would town have two voiders? The argument with the serial killer and survivor namedrops doesn't work either. Suppose you are the serial killer and some of your powers don't work on the survivor (which would make sense). BOOM! You know of them both.
    There's also what Elenna said: we would be wasting a day.

  27. - Top - End - #657
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    I'll try asking in my private chat too.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Metastachydium View Post
    Why would town have two voiders?
    In games like this, in which everyone has a power, it's quite normal to have multiple roles of the same or similar type.
    Quote Originally Posted by Metastachydium View Post
    Suppose you are the serial killer and some of your powers don't work on the survivor (which would make sense). BOOM! You know of them both.
    I don't really get this point, but in that case, if I target the Survivor with whatever harmful power, I wouldn't target town with it, so good for town I guess.
    Last edited by Captain Cap; 2021-10-20 at 01:44 PM.

  28. - Top - End - #658
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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Metastachydium View Post
    I'd like to hear about Fext first.



    Why?
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Oh, right. Must have mixed up something in my Notes. Sorry.
    Nitpick on your new POE: Is Meta really town, or only not mafia?

    Your Book / Cap theory is one I share. It's one of the reasons I am going after Cap at the moment. It will yield an additional bit of info.

    Fext can be town. But I think it would be a bit strange to have two townies with anti SK powers. Not impossible, but a bit strange. I also assume/guess they could have an SK kill immunity, but that's baseless speculation.

    AV claimed she survived a roleblock and a murder attempt, but should have died to two attacks. So either she can explicitly be killed by two kills per night, or she had the power to survive one night kill ever. Or her power let's her survive one specific type of kill. Or... many possibilities.

    I don't mind your downgrade for myself. I am still town and I am still convinced you are not a wolf (and saying I might suspect you if you survive the night was an attempt to protect you. Not sure if it worked or you live for some other reason, but that's not important right now)

    As far as I am concerned, I am perfectly fine with the wolves being in gac, Cap, Goof. Not completely confident, but there are very decent odds.

    Unless I miss something, your vote puts us at Fext: 2*
    Cap: 2

    A proper vote count will follow later.



    Didn't you say they were not a wolf before the end of night? So, you guessed and checked it later?
    Absolutely I did. Well sort of. My power doesn't work on the exact day night cycle.

  29. - Top - End - #659
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    SwashbucklerGuy

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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can you go back and read my day 1 case and give your opinion?
    You mention weak attacks and a general lack of in-depth opinions. I think it's pretty in line with my argument that he hasn't said very much, at least from a content point of view, despite the number of posts. His analysis seems mostly superficial.

  30. - Top - End - #660
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    Default Re: Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Just clarifying, this is about AV?
    Absolutely. I was being asked a bout AV.

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