Upick 2: Electric Boogaloo

[Rogan]

Yes, that's absolutely what I was implying. This poisoned dagger is clearly my holy symbol.

So you are a cleric of Loki?

I'm thinking that when it comes to numbers we should just assume that there are +1 werewolves than what we think. If we all agree there are 4, we need to vote like there are 5, if we think 5 vote like 6, etc.

An overabundance of caution in that regard won't hurt us nearly as much as it will help.

If there are 5 or 6 wolves, I will eat my own hat (but not my bat or cat). I could see 4, but I don't really think so. 3 wolves, 2 neutrals. This would be my guess. There might be another neutral, but if this is the case, they will have to have more complicated victory condition than the usual survive or kill all.

[Metastachydium]

If there are 5 or 6 wolves, I will eat my own hat (but not my bat or cat). I could see 4, but I don't really think so. 3 wolves, 2 neutrals. This would be my guess. There might be another neutral, but if this is the case, they will have to have more complicated victory condition than the usual survive or kill all.

Such confidence! Suspicious!
More seriously, 3 wolves and a serial killer are potentially worse than 4 wolves, since that's already two kills per night. Throw in a misguided vigilante, and our numbers might start to dwindle faster than what would feel comfortable.

[moonfly7]

So you are a cleric of Loki?



If there are 5 or 6 wolves, I will eat my own hat (but not my bat or cat). I could see 4, but I don't really think so. 3 wolves, 2 neutrals. This would be my guess. There might be another neutral, but if this is the case, they will have to have more complicated victory condition than the usual survive or kill all.

I meant 5 or 6 hostile in general, but my point was that it was an unreasonable amount, but it's a better idea to expect that many and be wrong than be blindsided by just 1 extra. Lets say we expect 5 and there's only 3 and a serial killer. We're gonna be better off than if we expected 3 and we missed a wolf or killer.

[Snowblaze]

In a way it doesn't really matter that much, at this stage of the game. Hunting wolves is the same whether you're looking for three or four of them.

And there hasn't really been much of that going on yet.

...yeah, should probably do something about it. Can people please give a wolfread? Even if you have to squint sideways to see something as suspicious. It would be great if you could vote them as well.

[Rogan]

...yeah, should probably do something about it. Can people please give a wolfread? Even if you have to squint sideways to see something as suspicious. It would be great if you could vote them as well.

Well, if you insist... I will give you my reads. They are very weak, since I am better at mech and I don't have much mech to go by ...

I have some minor town points for Gac3 and Cao. They had a chance to put me at 3 votes but didn't. Both had a weak but valid reason to vote for me. They didn't, so if they want to misslynch me, they are subtle about it. I guess those points will only get relevant when one of us three flips or gets a Seer result.

For Wolf reads, I had the worst impression by you, Snow. Your positioning about Cao seems slightly off. But I am really not comfortable about this case and would not have gone there again if you hadn't asked for it.

[Batcathat]

...yeah, should probably do something about it. Can people please give a wolfread? Even if you have to squint sideways to see something as suspicious. It would be great if you could vote them as well.

There's not really a lot to go on. The only thing that seem kinda odd is how convinced Rogan is about the number of wolves, though I'm not sure it makes sense for a wolf to push it that hard, so it might just be lingering distrust from last game. Even if my vote wasn't already conveniently on Rogan, it probably wouldn't be enough to move it.

I'll try to read through everything again later today, hopefully I might have something a little less unfounded by then.

[Metastachydium]

I have some minor town points for Gac3 and Cao. They had a chance to put me at 3 votes but didn't. Both had a weak but valid reason to vote for me.

You don't make a really compelling argument there, do you know that? This only proves anything if you are town and we have no reason to believe that at this point.

[Snowblaze]

bladescape (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (2): Taffimai, Elenna
Batcathat (2): Moonfly7, CaoimhinTheCape
Snowblaze (1): Rogan
Taffimai (1): gac3
Not Voting: Supagoof, Fext, bladescape

For reference, until Caoimhin shows up again.

Meta, it’s usual to make reads under the assumption that you’re town. It doesn’t need to be a compelling argument at this stage. Also please answer my question!

[Rogan]

You don't make a really compelling argument there, do you know that? This only proves anything if you are town and we have no reason to believe that at this point.

I guess those points will only get relevant when one of us three flips or gets a Seer result.

I know and acknowledged this. It might even come back to bite me in the ass, but that's a risk I am willing to take. Worst case, one of them is a wolf and gets some town cred if / when I flip.

[bladescape]

No, why?

*more characters*

Mmm.

Just.

Your position in thread feels weird.

Normally I see where you're going.

Maybe too early.

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Rogan is town this game.

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You don't make a really compelling argument there, do you know that? This only proves anything if you are town and we have no reason to believe that at this point.

If no one says what they think about other people how do we find out which ones ARE town?

And maybe they die and show as town during the night, if they say what they think we can review that.

Information is always a +.

[Snowblaze]

Mmm.

Just.

Your position in thread feels weird.

Normally I see where you're going.

Maybe too early.

...yeah, that’s fair. I haven’t exactly been bleeding towniness yet.

Don’t worry, I’ll do something that makes zero sense for wolf!me at some point. That or get myself nightkilled.

[Metastachydium]

Meta, it’s usual to make reads under the assumption that you’re town.

Which makes sense, but isn't really useful.

Also please answer my question!

As Rogan said above and below, it's a bit too early to say anything definitive. At any rate, I'm comfortable staying on The Cape for now. If he turns out to be one of the dogs, I'll probably recommend going after Rogan.

I know and acknowledged this. It might even come back to bite me in the ass, but that's a risk I am willing to take. Worst case, one of them is a wolf and gets some town cred if / when I flip.

That's why I suggest that we kill them first!

If no one says what they think about other people how do we find out which ones ARE town?

And maybe they die and show as town during the night, if they say what they think we can review that.

Information is always a +.

Fair.

[Snowblaze]

Yeah, I’m starting to townread Rogan too.

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Which makes sense, but isn't really useful.



As Rogan said above and below, it's a bit too early to say anything definitive. At any rate, I'm comfortable staying on The Cape for now. If he turns out to be one of the dogs, I'll probably recommend going after Rogan.

Dogs meaning wolves, I guess?

[Book Wombat]

Which makes sense, but isn't really useful.

On Day 1 basically nothing is "useful" until later unless someone slips up badly.

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Also, no definitive reads from me. I may like reading books but I'm rather bad at reading people.

[Metastachydium]

Dogs meaning wolves, I guess?

Don't mind me, I'm trying to be "poetic" here.
(In other words, yes.)

Yeah, I’m starting to townread Rogan too.

Why?

[Snowblaze]

Don't mind me, I'm trying to be "poetic" here.
(In other words, yes.)



Why?

Gut, mostly. He feels different to his wolf games. I can’t really point to anything specific, I’m afraid.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

CaoimhinTheCape - I’m curious about why you’re creating a fourth two-vote wagon instead of pushing someone up to three votes.

(Also I feel like breaking the tie. And it’s the closest thing to a wolfread I can find.)

It's only page 2 and none of the people at two votes did anything I thought was too wolfy. Didn't want to vote someone completely new (since that doesn't help much) but I didn't have any particular reason to push one of the others up to three.

And thank you for the response. I guess we can agree that Caos vote is a reason to pay attention to him. I wouldn't have voted there, but it's still somewhat early day 1, so there is not much to go by.
I hope Cao himself will give some explanation as well.

I mean, I will try to always have a vote out rather than not vote. Not sure why you wouldn't have voted: isn't putting out a random vote the townie thing to do?

I'm not very familiar with the other meta, but I'd think self-preservation is always a concern. In fact, I'd hate to die on the very first day.

I mean, self-preservation is somewhat of a concern but people tend not to be as worried early Day 1 as things can change a lot.

But you're right, it would be terrible to die on the first day of a UPick Mafia game (looks at the Day 1 lynch last game).



On the topic of how many Wolves, I'd think 3 or 4 sounds right. My instinct would be either 4, or 3 with an SK. Either of those scenarios probably have at least one Neutral around to make things interesting.

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As for some quick reads: Rogan seems town to me, Meta seems town (but then again, I haven't played with them before so who knows). If I'd have to pick a third, Book's posts seem more helpful than not, so maybe Book.

Slight suspicion against gac and blade for posting here and not throwing down a vote. (possibly waiting to see what wagon gains traction and vote there?) AV might be in that group for just having a couple jokey posts but it's AV, they'll be back with a lot of info/longer posts soon enough, so neutral.

Don't like Snow's case against me but I don't know if that's an OMGUS reaction so I don't wanna accuse until I have more time to think.

I'll move to bladescape to get a vote out of him.

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Vote Count:

BladeScape (2): Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape
AvatarVecna (1): Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (2): Taffimai, Elenna
Batcathat (1): Moonfly7
Snowblaze (1): Rogan

Not Voting: SupaGoof, gac3, Fext, BladeScape

[Snowblaze]

gac3 is voting for Taffimai. You missed that in your first vote count as well.

Elaborate on the Meta read?

[Rogan]

...yeah, thatÂ’s fair. I havenÂ’t exactly been bleeding towniness yet.

DonÂ’t worry, IÂ’ll do something that makes zero sense for wolf!me at some point. That or get myself nightkilled.

So we can hope for a Child of Ariadne claim soon?
But yeah, you are only my top suspect because there is so few to go about. I hope there will be something better to check later.
For what is worth, you also get some town points for encouraging discussion. I probably would check you tonight if I were a Seer, just to be sure.

That's why I suggest that we kill them first!

I'd rather lynch someone else and use non-lethal ways to check them. Seers, Lie detectors, other night powers or plain day observation.
I mean, best case, I am right and we three are town.

Do you suspect Gac3? If yes, why?

Also, no definitive reads from me. I may like reading books but I'm rather bad at reading people.

What about reading Wombats?

It's only page 2 and none of the people at two votes did anything I thought was too wolfy. Didn't want to vote someone completely new (since that doesn't help much) but I didn't have any particular reason to push one of the others up to three.



I mean, I will try to always have a vote out rather than not vote. Not sure why you wouldn't have voted: isn't putting out a random vote the townie thing to do?

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Vote Count:

BladeScape (2): Book Wombat, CaoimhinTheCape
AvatarVecna (1): Captain Cap
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Metastachydium, AvatarVecna, Snowblaze
Rogan (2): Batcathat, Xihirli
Xihirli (2): Taffimai, Elenna
Batcathat (1): Moonfly7
Snowblaze (1): Rogan

Not Voting: SupaGoof, gac3, Fext, BladeScape

Your logic for the vote seems fine. But I am biased, since I am one of the two vote candidates you could have picked.
Having a vote out is good. Having some reason for the vote is even better. But I don't think the reason to vote for you is good.

gac3 is voting for Taffimai. You missed that in your first vote count as well.

Gac voted (one post?) after the first vote count.

[Metastachydium]

I'd rather lynch someone else and use non-lethal ways to check them. Seers, Lie detectors, other night powers or plain day observation.
I mean, best case, I am right and we three are town.

Best case, you are lying and we have all the wolves!
Anyhow, I'm not married to the idea of killing Caoimhin (or at least I think I can file for a quick divorce at this point), so if you want to convince me that it should rather be Snow (can I call you Snow?), I'm listening.

Do you suspect Gac3? If yes, why?

Not sure. What I don't like, is this:

Yes, true. But it's early in the process and I have only seen one other comment that has stood out to me but I'm not sure if it's just me being biased about the comment. So it's what I have so far.

So, there's potential information out there, but it is withheld. For some vague reason.

[Snowblaze]

So we can hope for a Child of Ariadne claim soon?

Well, actually... you know when I mentioned my second pick was mostly a meme? Yeah. It was Child of Ariadne. So I could have been one.

And yes, Meta, you may call me Snow.

[Rogan]

Best case, you are lying and we have all the wolves!
Anyhow, I'm not married to the idea of killing Caoimhin (or at least I think I can file for a quick divorce at this point), so if you want to convince me that it should rather be Snow (can I call you Snow?), I'm listening.



Not sure. What I don't like, is this:



So, there's potential information out there, but it is withheld. For some vague reason.

If you think you got all wolves day 1, you are wrong much more often than right. But that's something you know, right?
About snow:

Spoiler: Relevant quotes for Snows vote

Show

CaoimhinTheCape - I’m curious about why you’re creating a fourth two-vote wagon instead of pushing someone up to three votes.

(Also I feel like breaking the tie. And it’s the closest thing to a wolfread I can find.)

Do you care to explain why not breaking the tie is a sight wolfread?
Cao was tied as well. Wouldn't a wolf be more likely to vote for one of the other wagons? Both to push a misslynch and to save himself?

*shrug* I was thinking a wolf maybe wouldn't want to draw attention to themselves by voting for one of you/Xihirli - doing that without a good reason would look like exactly what you suggested. Also there's the possibility that Caoimhin is partnered with one of you/Xihirli and doesn't want to push a partner into the lead.

Wolf!Snow would want to have a townie in the lead. Assuming Cao and Xi (and me) are all town, Snow would not care who gets into the lead, but she would like to have time more pressure. Maybe get a claim out of this, while still having an alternative misslynch ready. When Cao didn't vote for a two vote wagon, Snow did so herself. As a wolf, she doesn't need to be afraid of lynching a teammate, so she can be more bold about pushing wagons.

This would be the case for wolf snow, in rough terms. It's certainly possible, but not clear cut. I am looking forward to see other opinions about this situation.

About Gac3... Well, I am assuming his vague post was directed my way, since he said something about being biased. I might be wrong here, so...
Gac3 Can you tell us what you noticed and why you were vague?

Well, actually... you know when I mentioned my second pick was mostly a meme? Yeah. It was Child of Ariadne. So I could have been one.

[Book Wombat]

If you think you got all wolves day 1, you are wrong much more often than right. But that's something you know, right?

Once I randomly voted for both "cult" members on Day 1 (everyone had two votes), lost that game though sadly.

[Metastachydium]

If you think you got all wolves day 1, you are wrong much more often than right. But that's something you know, right?

Sure thing. But one can hope, ain't that so?

About snow:
Wolf!Snow would want to have a townie in the lead. Assuming Cao and Xi (and me) are all town, Snow would not care who gets into the lead, but she would like to have time more pressure. Maybe get a claim out of this, while still having an alternative misslynch ready. When Cao didn't vote for a two vote wagon, Snow did so herself. As a wolf, she doesn't need to be afraid of lynching a teammate, so she can be more bold about pushing wagons.

This would be the case for wolf snow, in rough terms. It's certainly possible, but not clear cut. I am looking forward to see other opinions about this situation.

Eh, at some point, someone is bound to break those ties, and done as early as that generates discussion without dooming anyone.

[Taffimai]

I was running Afterlife!

...with murderous glee, I'm sure!

I must have mixed it up with one of the less-recent games I read, as I'm absolutely sure I was 0/4 after the last one.

I've thought about it and I'm not going to roleplay my second pick, because I did also like that concept and might want to keep it for Upick 3.

If no one says what they think about other people how do we find out which ones ARE town?

And maybe they die and show as town during the night, if they say what they think we can review that.

Information is always a +.

As a counterpoint: in a game with a lot of players, which already has the potential to get the thread moving faster than people can keep up with, it benefits the wolves more if we all start throwing our gut feelings out, because it a) gives them something to build on to create suspicion against innocents without being held accountable and b) the more noise there is, the more difficult it is to find the actually useful information as it allows wolf slip-ups to go unnoticed. Based on my "successrate" with the previous games I've read, I guarantee you that my feelings at this point are not worth having, and will only go to embarrass me later.

Which is not to say nobody should post their suspicions at all, obviously, because that would get boring.

[Fext]

hello! nice to meet you all

[Rogan]

hello! nice to meet you all

Hello. It's nice to have you here. Did you get a chance to read the thread so far or do you need some time to catch up?

[Fext]

skimmed most of it but I'm afraid I haven't really drawn any conclusions

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Am I just stupid or is my QuickTime topic locked?

I was gonna ask a few questions like Unavenger said but I seem to be unable to do so

[Rogan]

Okay, that's fine. There is not much to go by at this point. But that's typical for day 1.
Did you pay mafia before? On this site or somewhere else? I don't know you, but I am new-ish to the mafia community here, so that might explain things.

[Book Wombat]

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