Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

[Elenna]

AV using my power for town cred could be possible. But Cao told gac AV would be targeted at night 1, something AV confirmed.
AV could not know what Cao did in the dead chat, so this would be a hell of a lie.

Oh right, I hadn't realized it but yes, that should clear AV. Especially since now we know for sure that "shot with a pistol" is a wolf kill.

[Rogan]

Oh right, I hadn't realized it but yes, that should clear AV. Especially since now we know for sure that "shot with a pistol" is a wolf kill.

I think, gac made an amazing move with his limited power. Gac, if you are reading this: I'm proud of you!

I will also remind you that Gac gave us the RAC quote, which probably means either Elenna or Snow is scum. Or perhaps even both, if they are team Busdriver? Seems unlikely, but is it actually impossible?

[moonfly7]

I think, gac made an amazing move with his limited power. Gac, if you are reading this: I'm proud of you!

I will also remind you that Gac gave us the RAC quote, which probably means either Elenna or Snow is scum. Or perhaps even both, if they are team Busdriver? Seems unlikely, but is it actually impossible?

Yeah, Props to Gac, and apologies to AV for the mistake on my end, I wasn't doing fact checks because, like I said, it wasn't really an accusation just seeing if there were holes there. Which there were not.

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We got about 22 minutes till end of day ladies and gentleman, Blade, you might wann get that vote off of wombat.

[AvatarVecna]

Seeing as I'm in a "devil's advocate" mood...

Yeah, AV clearly did actually use that power.

I was thinking that wolf!AV might have actually used your power, to get towncred. But I don't really think AV is a wolf. I'm just being paranoid, and with Snow's claim AV is the least cleared person among the list of cleared people.

1) All of my powers would work equally well as a member of the scumteam - in fact, they'd work better. I'd know which suspicious people are just wolves instead of having to guess which of a half-dozen weirdos is the SK. Getting my role-block kill would be much easier if there's a scum roleblocker I could coordinate with, and my copy power is basically explicitly useless unless I know exactly how a person's power works...which is a crippling restriction for a townie, but is actually pretty reasonable for a scumbuddy.

2) A wolf would (probably?) understand how rogan's N1 question and answer match up, and would therefore understand how to fake an answer to the N2 question. This allows scum!AV to get some towncred while still using a night power to actually help scumteam.

Oh right, I hadn't realized it but yes, that should clear AV. Especially since now we know for sure that "shot with a pistol" is a wolf kill.

Cao has access to wolfchat. gac/cao have access to deadchat. gac/wolves have access to main thread. We already know that Cao was feeding gac info N1, specifically to signal to the scumbuddies in code so that they knew gac could see either wolfchat or at least deadchat and cao was cooperating. The theoretical order of events would be that scumteam is trying to kill Elenna, gac posts "elenna" in purple, then "avatarvecna" in purple, then posts a specific line from wolfchat spoken by me specifically. I see that, put two and two together, and realize cao is feeding gac info from scumchat. We see the two names in purple as being really weird choices for a N1 vig kill, and so we do a little test:

"cao, tell gac to spam a password to get our attention. tell him [absolutely] if you want us to pretend to kill AV, and tell him [completely] if you want us to just kill elenna. whichever one helps you get on his good side, up to you"

gac spams absolutely, so the scumteam skips the N1 kill entirely, so that I can immediately pop up in the morning, claim that my passive self-bane ability blocked a kill with the mafia fluff (fluff no one else could know except the scumteam), and tada! Instant towncred.

It's...a little convoluted? But it's feasible, as far as the kind of thing I might do.

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The strongest argument in favor of me being town is purely meta: I wouldn't be trying this hard if I had to fool everybody again. Like...last game, did y'all see how my activity plummeted the second Popo was dead? It wiped me out for awhile, and I wasn't gonna be in good shape for the early game this time 'round, and early game is really important for scumteam. I'd be a liability, making things worse if I tried, so may as well not try. What changed things is that I saw one thing I wanted to comment on (the weird triangle of defense D1 between elenna, rogan, and cao) when I went to do elenna's very short D1/N1 ISO. And then rogan dropped a bomb and a fire got lit in me that just about burned me all the way out again. It's exhausting.

[moonfly7]

Seeing as I'm in a "devil's advocate" mood...



1) All of my powers would work equally well as a member of the scumteam - in fact, they'd work better. I'd know which suspicious people are just wolves instead of having to guess which of a half-dozen weirdos is the SK. Getting my role-block kill would be much easier if there's a scum roleblocker I could coordinate with, and my copy power is basically explicitly useless unless I know exactly how a person's power works...which is a crippling restriction for a townie, but is actually pretty reasonable for a scumbuddy.

2) A wolf would (probably?) understand how rogan's N1 question and answer match up, and would therefore understand how to fake an answer to the N2 question. This allows scum!AV to get some towncred while still using a night power to actually help scumteam.



Cao has access to wolfchat. gac/cao have access to deadchat. gac/wolves have access to main thread. We already know that Cao was feeding gac info N1, specifically to signal to the scumbuddies in code so that they knew gac could see either wolfchat or at least deadchat and cao was cooperating. The theoretical order of events would be that scumteam is trying to kill Elenna, gac posts "elenna" in purple, then "avatarvecna" in purple, then posts a specific line from wolfchat spoken by me specifically. I see that, put two and two together, and realize cao is feeding gac info from scumchat. We see the two names in purple as being really weird choices for a N1 vig kill, and so we do a little test:

"cao, tell gac to spam a password to get our attention. tell him [absolutely] if you want us to pretend to kill AV, and tell him [completely] if you want us to just kill elenna. whichever one helps you get on his good side, up to you"

gac spams absolutely, so the scumteam skips the N1 kill entirely, so that I can immediately pop up in the morning, claim that my passive self-bane ability blocked a kill with the mafia fluff (fluff no one else could know except the scumteam), and tada! Instant towncred.

It's...a little convoluted? But it's feasible, as far as the kind of thing I might do.

True enough, But I like to think everybody has made beter judgement calls than that. But we don't exactly have a great track record do we? Ah well, if you are mafia and pulled that off, then you deserve the win.

[Elenna]

Okay, I can maaaaybe see that as a convoluted explanation for the nightkill. But how would wolf!AV know to put Taffimai as the third person in the list from the Ultimate Question, and not any other non-wolf?

[AvatarVecna]

Okay, I can maaaaybe see that as a convoluted explanation for the nightkill. But how would wolf!AV know to put Taffimai as the third person in the list from the Ultimate Question, and not any other non-wolf?

That, I'm not really sure of, since I'm not actually a wolf. My vague handwavey explanation in that post is that the wolves saw rogan's question and answer for N1, they figured out how rogan's power answers questions, and they faked it...believably...somehow.

EDIT: This basically requires that the scumteam is exactly precisely AV/goof, and that Taff is another half-survivor/half-SK.

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Like, under the assumption of this wolf!AV world, rogan's questions receive true answers only, and the redacted part is literally just "[redacted]" so Unavenger can make rogan think there's more to the power. The first question was answered honestly, with all mafia among the 8 (AV and Goof), and the second question caught all three anti-town roles in the game (AV, Goof, and Taff). This requires scumteam to have figured out somehow that taff isn't just a survivor, but if they'd figured that out, wolf!AV knows exactly what names rogan is gonna get, and decides to answer with basically identical answers that allow wolf!AV to convince Rogan that his questions only receive incorrect answers.

[Rogan]

I'm sorry to say this, but while I could see AV pulling the whole dead chat deception, I don't see Cao being able to initiate it.

And and AV could only instruct Cao once she knows what's going on.

By the way... either Elenna is a wolf and Cao gave her name to deflect suspicion, or Elenna really was the first night kill target for the wolves.

[Batcathat]

Looks like this is it. Not quite handsome, charming and loveable enough, it seems. Ain't that just typical?

Good luck, have fun and may you live in interesting times.

[Unavenger]

DAY 3 END

Please wait for the votes to be counted.

[moonfly7]

Looks like this is it. Not quite handsome, charming and loveable enough, it seems. Ain't that just typical?

Good luck, have fun and may you live in interesting times.

After 2020 my Bludgeoning feline friend, that is very much a threat.

[Unavenger]

AvatarVecna voted BATCATHAT
Snowblaze voted BATCATHAT
Batcathat FAILED TO VOTE BECAUSE THE TARGET OF THE VOTE IS DEAD
SupaGoof voted BATCATHAT
Taffimai voted TAFFIMAI
Moonfly7 voted BATCATHAT
BladeScape FAILED TO VOTE BECAUSE THE TARGET OF THE VOTE IS DEAD
Elenna voted BATCATHAT
Metastachydium voted BATCATHAT
Rogan voted ELENNA

Batcathat recieved 6 votes.
Taffimai recieved 1 vote.
Elenna recieved 3 votes.
2 players failed to vote because the target of the vote is dead.

Batcathat died today. They were executed. Batcathat's role was The Machine.

Batcathat, you are The Machine, a NAME SEER, ABILITY CHECKER, MOTION DETECTOR and member of the MAFIA. You win the game if you kill every hostile character or nothing can prevent this from happening, and at least one member of your team is alive.

You have TWO abilities.

ICE-9 (Kill Priority): Once per NIGHT, if no other member of the MAFIA uses their kill ability, you may choose a living player: they die. They are reported as having been killed by a virus.

Person of Interest (Investigation Priority): Once per NIGHT, choose a living player and any type of ability which it is unambiguous whether an ability counts or not (such as “Any passive ability” or “any ability which is capable of killing”). You are told the following information:

The character’s name.
“Relevant” if they have an ability of the specified type or “Irrelevant” if they don’t.
“Perpetrator” if they used an ability that night OR the preceding day or both, “Victim” if they were the target of an ability in that time, “Neither” if neither and “Both” if both.

NIGHT 3 START

This phase will end at 21:00 GMT, 27/10/2021.

[AvatarVecna]

7-1-1 or 6-1-2 now, depending on how many scum we started with. It's good to know we're not in one of the worst-case scenarios where we miss a whole bunch before getting a hit. Now we've got some breathing room!

[Rogan]

At least one hostile with a gun left.

It might be worth guessing role names to see if a pistol fits.

[moonfly7]

At least one hostile with a gun left.

It might be worth guessing role names to see if a pistol fits.

Well, it absolutely makes no sense for it to be me, at least. As my description is not at all close to firearms.

[Rogan]

AvatarVecna - locked town
Snowblaze - Busdriver?
SupaGoof - town lean. I have a guess for the role. A gun doesn't really fit.
Taffimai - Neutral, possible guess on role name
Moonfly7 - strong town lean. Scary deals don't fit a regular gun.
BladeScape - locked town
Elenna - possible wolf, but there are good arguments against it. No idea about the role.
Metastachydium - possible wolf with two kill powers. We will find out tomorrow morning.
Rogan - Why would a Prophet carry a gun?


So... if Snow is scum, she wants to see how many townies die tonight and her alignment proving power is her surrender, including a great Song?

[moonfly7]

We just need snows clear and Meta and Blade to actually kill. Although meta is looking mighty suspicious now, since bat tried to clear him. But it could also be solid truth meant to throw us off. He also tried to clear Elena too, so coin flip there. The only people he didn't clear were me and Goof.

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If there's only one wolf left I don't think they can actually win at this point. We have at least one kill power every night, and even if Meta is lying they can't risk killing Blade because it gives them away regardless. Unless it's someone we'd never suspect like Rogan or AV, the only real reason a single Mafia wouldn't just give up at this point us if they're immune to night kills or have some truly ridiculous abilities. Or if they're a roleblocker. In which case we need to use both our kills tonight on an actual suspect.

The only other reason they would have to not give up is if there are 2 if them, and not one.

[Rogan]

AvatarVecna - Looks threatening.
Snowblaze - Provides her Alignment
SupaGoof - Protect AV.
Taffimai - Survives? Hopefully....
Moonfly7 - Hands out a Block to either AV or Rogan
BladeScape - shoots a bolt at someone.
Elenna - Checks Snow, so she can't be blocked to prevent the use of her power.
Metastachydium - Protects Rogan and kills... someone?
Rogan - Asks some kind of question.

Rogan is town this game.

Would be a fun question to ask, but not helpful.

But I have another idea.

[Elenna]

Still waiting for Snow's answer about whether her clear will happen immediately.

Most likely won't matter but who do people think I should target tonight? The OP says there are no vortexers so I don't think there's any harm in publically discussing it.

[moonfly7]

AvatarVecna - Looks threatening.
Snowblaze - Provides her Alignment
SupaGoof - Protect AV.
Taffimai - Survives? Hopefully....
Moonfly7 - Hands out a Block to either AV or Rogan
BladeScape - shoots a bolt at someone.
Elenna - Checks Snow, so she can't be blocked to prevent the use of her power.
Metastachydium - Protects Rogan and kills... someone?
Rogan - Asks some kind of question.



Would be a fun question to ask, but not helpful.

But I have another idea.

I believe Meta called dibs on shooting Elena. Leaving Blade to choose between me and Goof as a target.

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Still waiting for Snow's answer about whether her clear will happen immediately.

Most likely won't matter but who do people think I should target tonight? The OP says there are no vortexers so I don't think there's any harm in publically discussing it.

You mean if Meta doesn't gank you? Any of the people on our list who don't get called out for a kill by blade.
I would personally suggest checking Snow.

[Elenna]

I'm down to target Snow.

We just need snows clear and Meta and Blade to actually kill. Although meta is looking mighty suspicious now, since bat tried to clear him. But it could also be solid truth meant to throw us off. He also tried to clear Elena too, so coin flip there. The only people he didn't clear were me and Goof.

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If there's only one wolf left I don't think they can actually win at this point. We have at least one kill power every night, and even if Meta is lying they can't risk killing Blade because it gives them away regardless. Unless it's someone we'd never suspect like Rogan or AV, the only real reason a single Mafia wouldn't just give up at this point us if they're immune to night kills or have some truly ridiculous abilities. Or if they're a roleblocker. In which case we need to use both our kills tonight on an actual suspect.

The only other reason they would have to not give up is if there are 2 if them, and not one.

Bat said Meta was 100% clear while they only said I had used a power last night, which basically doesn't clear me at all. I wouldn't call it a coin flip.

I should really ISO bat but aaaah so many pages.

[moonfly7]

I'm down to target Snow.


Bat said Meta was 100% clear while they only said I had used a power last night, which basically doesn't clear me at all. I wouldn't call it a coin flip.

I should really ISO bat but aaaah so many pages.

I didn't mean each of you was equal. I meant a coin flip whether you were guilty or not. I know that sentence was confusing though.

Either way the plan has never been to kill meta tonight.

[Elenna]

I didn't mean each of you was equal. I meant a coin flip whether you were guilty or not. I know that sentence was confusing though.

Either way the plan has never been to kill meta tonight.

Yeah true.

If someone is going to shoot Goof I'd rather it be Meta and not blade, in case Goof actually does have some beast-type power I'd rather lose Meta than blade.

[AvatarVecna]

Aaaaaaaaa I'm gonna have to multi ISO at least three players again aren't I? Or I can just trust the plan and do nothing...

[Rogan]

I'm down to target Snow.


Bat said Meta was 100% clear while they only said I had used a power last night, which basically doesn't clear me at all. I wouldn't call it a coin flip.

I should really ISO bat but aaaah so many pages.

Elenna also got my alignment right (no surprise) and knew Goof targeted me. Elenna is not guaranteed to be town, but it seems more likely by now.

Blades, I suggest you shoot Metastachydium.

I also assume, if Meta is hostile, he will kill Moon with her own power to humiliate him and kill Elenna, because dibs.

I might be wrong, especially if there is another wolf. Or if Meta is innocent. But hey... we will see what happens.

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A Goof / Elenna team could be possible, but it would mean my power is useless instead of useful after you know the twist.

[moonfly7]

Aaaaaaaaa I'm gonna have to multi ISO at least three players again aren't I? Or I can just trust the plan and do nothing...

Well, the plan is solid except for the part Elena mentioned with blade killing goof. I do agree that if someone does kill goof, it needs to be meta.

That being said, I obviously still think we shouldn't gank me, but only because I don't wanna have to wait a whole other 48 hours for us to win this game. If we kill Elena and Goof, Meta will either be killed or cleared, especially if we make Meta kill Goof. That's 3 dead and cleared. Then Snow is the only one left. If the game continues, snow is mafia and should just self lynch. If it's over, then it's over.

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Elenna also got my alignment right (no surprise) and knew Goof targeted me. Elenna is not guaranteed to be town, but it seems more likely by now.

Blades, I suggest you shoot Metastachydium.

I also assume, if Meta is hostile, he will kill Moon with her own power to humiliate her and kill Elenna, because dibs.

I might be wrong, especially if there is another wolf. Or if Meta is innocent. But hey... we will see what happens.

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A Goof / Elenna team could be possible, but it would mean my power is useless instead of useful after you know the twist.

And once again I will point out that I'm a dude.

[Rogan]

Well, the plan is solid except for the part Elena mentioned with blade killing goof. I do agree that if someone does kill goof, it needs to be meta.

That being said, I obviously still think we shouldn't gank me, but only because I don't wanna have to wait a whole other 48 hours for us to win this game. If we kill Elena and Goof, Meta will either be killed or cleared, especially if we make Meta kill Goof. That's 3 dead and cleared. Then Snow is the only one left. If the game continues, snow is mafia and should just self lynch. If it's over, then it's over.

And once again I will point out that I'm a dude.

Can scum please kill me...?

I will also point out that Goof, if he is telling the truth, won't kill by getting killed by default.

He can protect someone. If this person is targeted by a kill, goof will die instead and take the attacker down with him.

So setting someone at Goof, hoping the beast will get active, only works if we assume Goof is self targeting or lying.

[Taffimai]

Blades, I suggest you shoot Metastachydium.

I like this "guess Blades' new colour" game. I'm going with Metastachydium.

[Rogan]

No proper ISO, but some posts and my thoughts.

That does seem likely, based on the last Upick. Though I suppose that might just as well make it less likely, in case Unavenger want to keep us guessing.

If the whole "ominous presence" bit is something more than just flavor, it does seem probable that there's a serial killer or some other third party, presumably with powers and/or a wincon tied to people's identities.

Talk about the number of wolves. He also says wolf's don't have a power connected to identity. A scum slip or trying to put town at ease?

Seems iffy to give any town points based on knowing the wincon, presumably the wolves' is phrased the same way so guessing it wouldn't exactly be a big risk.

Why do you figure a specific neutral wincon would be less likely here than in any other game?

Shading Elenna.

Yeah, this is pretty much where I'm at too. I'm not sure I quite understand the case against Cao, but I can't see any better ones and him flipping should indeed give us something more to go on.



I didn't really mean that I doubted it much, just not ruling out the possibility that it didn't (I don't know about Unavenger, but if I ran I game I'd probably be open to making some unfounded warning just to see people freak out about it ). But I do agree that it most likely did have some reason behind, whether in relation to a serial killer, some wolf power or some other hostile role.

He mentioned the wolves now. It makes me feel like he left them out at first since they really don't have a power about roles, but I won't bet on this.

I've been postponing making a new vote all day, hoping something would make it easier, but it seems unlikely at this point. There are some things speaking against both Snow and Cao, it's all rather vague but I suppose that's to be expected D1. Out of the two, I feel like Snow is pushing the discussion in a more constructive way, while CaoimhinTheCape's words seem more fluff than substance (yes, I realize that's kinda hypocritical coming from me).

This seems partly honest. Possible Wolf Wolf wagons, and he didn't want to hit either target until he had to.

As advertised, here's my ISO on Rogan. I was going to wait until D2 to post it but I figured there's a small but not non-existent chance I'll get killed and I really doubt anything in here will help the wolves.

...

Rogan does seem very sure about the number of wolves, but I'm reading it more as overly confident townie than wolf, I think.

...

Could be seen as backing off a little from Snow, in case she flips town. Then again, I'd probably be more suspicious of someone who was completely confident in a D1 vote, so probably fairly neutral.

...

I suppose it could be a wolf worried about an inactive buddy, but probably just concern/curiosity. Though if Rogan flips wolf, maybe we should take a closer look at Supagoof?

...

Very quick to change opinion on Snow after the flip. Understandable, I guess, but going from top suspect to town lock? Hmm.


It's kinda funny that Rogan gave this advice but probably ended up talking the most at night. Not suspicious or anything (I think?), just funny.

...

I agree about gac's oddly confident statement. Might be worth keeping in mind if gac or Rogan flips wolf.


Could be more prepping for another try to lynch Snow, but I don't know. The paranoia feels kinda genuine, though I've been fooled by Rogan seeming genuine before.

Overall, a slight wolflean on Rogan. No massive red flags but a few things that looked iffy and while being wrong D1 is understandable (I was so sure about my vote on Jeen last game) defending Cao isn't a great look in retrospect. That said, I haven't looked this close at anyone else yet this game, so I can't quite rule out me just wanting to find a wolf (and/or being subconsciously salty after the last game ).

Lots of talk about how I look scummy, but this is to be expected.
Number of wolves... I'm not sure if I am right or wrong about the numbers and I don't know how to read Bats comments. Expecting 4 in total might be sensible.
Mentioned Snow, might be meant to strengthen his case on me if Snow gets checked as wolf.
I don't know how to read the Goof comment.
Snow again. See above.
Yeah... sorry about being verbose.
Wolves signaling they noticed gacs knowledge of their targets. Good for Elenna!
And Snow again, for a third time. Very scummy.

I also wonder if the wolves cooperated at wiring this ISO? Check it after the game.

I was pretty comfortable with my vote on Cap, but now there seems to be a lot of options. Given my earlier suspicions, I'm tempted to go back to Rogan, but if he is honest (and it does seem like a risky bluff for a wolf), that power could be very useful for town. I didn't really have a lean on gac either way earlier but now it seems kinda likely that he's either a wolf or being played by one. Need time to think.

Hey! You are stealing my line! (As a wolf, I said I was comfortable with my vote on a townie).
Shading me while saying I should live. They knew my power was very wrong.

The seer(s?) likely don't think it's worth it to share their results, if they didn't find wolves. This is kinda TWTBW with asking for seers to reveal themselves.

Hinting at being a Seer with a worthless result. Elenna, I like you!

So, anyone want to claim to have been roleblocked last night? (Disclaimer: anyone so claiming may be lynched).

I am a member of the town. Though I’d like to hope that’s obvious even without lie detection.

I didn’t get any results I feel like claiming today (no comment on whether I got results I don’t feel like claiming today) and the sum total of my thoughts is “welp, two people in my POE flipped town, I need to re-evaluate”.

Yes, bladescape, we can be town clears together. Though I’m not sure when we ever were before.

gac3, please can you explain your Elenna scumread, and how you went from “AV didn’t bus” to having them as one of your two suspects last night?

Will be afk for most of this morning, but hopefully this afternoon I’ll have some thoughts on where I’ve been going wrong.

Searching for Roleblocker?
Non committed talk about her power.
Pocketing Blades? While laughing silently since they are not in a team?
Asking gac about the hints he dropped. Wolves noticed!
Admitting she might be wrong, since the pool of false targets was decreased too much in the night?

---

I'll go to bed now, good night.

[Supagoof]

Doing from mobile, but tonight I'm going to bane.....