Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

[bladescape]

(Wait a second. Your kill didn't even work at Night 3?)

I mean I wasn't lying that I was too sick to enter anything. =P

But yes, even if I was well there would've been nothing because of my power.

[gac3]

Oh yes. But in general, as town I put my own survival lower than the good of town.
In PJ, I didn't kill Jeen, despite having strong hints for him to be out for my blood.
And here, I thought finding wolves was more important than possibly clearing me.
It never occurred to me that the drawback could be "only wrong results" until I was alive to get an impossible result. If I had suspected this day1,I might have really used it on myself.

It would definitely have changed the way day 2 played out.

Yeah. Your results literally had me just sitting there going...

If Rogan is honest AV is a wolf... But there is too much AV isn't a wolf evidence... Is AV tricking me? Is AV pulling an impossible scheme to trick me specifically?... It can't be... So Rogan is lying... But Rogan must be town... So why would Town Rogan lie... *Start over at the beginning*

I cannot remember ever being that level of confused in a Mafia game.

Also I don't think I ever openly said it because I wasn't sure if I was giving the right kind of points but major town points to Elenna for being the only one of my three suspects to not be like "clearly you are wrong and we're easily fooled" and actually first tried to see what my case/logic with the quote was.

Also, I would like to see the wolf chat, if they are willing to share.

[AvatarVecna]

Seconding that I'd like to read wolfchat.

[Snowblaze]

Seconding that I'd like to read wolfchat.

Caoimhin still hasn’t replied, but if they haven’t by tomorrow I’ll just share it anyway.

[Supagoof]

I think, Goof has some hints about his role.
I might be wrong.

Spoiler: My guess

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Legionary of Protection

You are correct!! I did move it, though it was there LONG before the game started as the first line in my sig. I imagine, somewhere on this earth, older forum members get a chuckle. Because the Legion will last, forever!

Here's the full deets on my role.
https://www.quicktopic.com/53/H/musVrp93G95bL
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Legionary of Protection, an ELITE BODYGUARD and a member of the TOWN. You win the game if you kill every hostile character or nothing can prevent this from happening, and at least one member of your team is alive.

You have ONE ability:

LegionÂ’s Protection (Protection Priority): Once per NIGHT you may choose a living player. If that player would die, instead you and each attacking player die (if you choose yourself, then if you are attacked, you and each attacking player die). You are reported as having been killed with their weapon. They are reported as having been bashed to death with a shield.
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And, for the first time in over a decade, I've won a game and survived!!! Seriously, I haven't survived a game in for-eh-veeeer! It's such a warm fuzzy. Though disappointing that I wasn't able to use my ability to get me some wolves, it was nice to have one that even if I went I felt I would have contributed.

Rogan, I may need to figure out a new method of ISO for you. The never ending responses was just, mind boggling. I love it though - always with the further and further analysis. You. Are. Amazing.

Snow - per usual - you played amazingly. You never really raised the pinging on my radar, in fact - it was only those who trusted the fact you didn't bus that caused me to have suspicion on you. Because I don't trust anything. Even the color coded AV is fully a townsperson narrator prover - had me sus, mostly because I feel the best games should always have that doubt that the person can be lying at anytime. The QT thing, that gave me the confidence in trusting you - though I just had to get you the confidence to trust in me.

Moonfly - sorry I never reached that level of trust with you. Rest assured in future games, I'll listen carefully to what you are laying down.

And Cao - I'm not sorry. Only because I missed day 1 and didn't contribute to your death. It would have been interesting to see what you did with the broadcasting role as a wolf. I would love to see that sometime again in the future.

[Rogan]

You are correct!! I did move it, though it was there LONG before the game started as the first line in my sig. I imagine, somewhere on this earth, older forum members get a chuckle. Because the Legion will last, forever!
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And, for the first time in over a decade, I've won a game and survived!!! Seriously, I haven't survived a game in for-eh-veeeer! It's such a warm fuzzy. Though disappointing that I wasn't able to use my ability to get me some wolves, it was nice to have one that even if I went I felt I would have contributed.

Rogan, I may need to figure out a new method of ISO for you. The never ending responses was just, mind boggling. I love it though - always with the further and further analysis. You. Are. Amazing.

Yeah, I remember the previous position from Love Letter. This was one reason I believed your power claim later on. I was a bit skeptical at first, since you were one of the few people who could be a wolf when I thought my power gave true results. I also have to admit I only really noticed the hint when you asked if anybody really looked at your Signature.

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I like to think that your protection was helpful at directing the wolf kills to a certain degree. It would have been even more powerful if the wolves had wanted to kill me for my power, but they knew I would not get true results, so I was in less danger than expected.

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I'm glad you liked my contributions. I'll still try to limit myself a bit next time. It was great fun, but I think I overwhelmed some players with the number of posts and guesses. It also made it easier to overlook certain theories and analysis.

I'll probably never will keep my mouth shut entirely, but that's fine. You need a bit of activity to get results.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Oh, and one important question for Cao: Did you know I would defend you as long as you don't attack me? Or was this just a happy little accident (which turned out not so happy, since it ended in w/w wagons).

I kinda hoped you would keep defending me, at the beginning I was trying to act genuinely townie and I definitely wouldn't have wolfread you Day 1. Later on it became about trying to paint you as another wolf once we knew I was dieing.

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Mafia Chat here

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This was not my best game. I didn't have much of a good reason for y'all not to lynch me Day One and with Snow's power being so much more important I figured bussing was a really good move for her.

I wasn't completely sure about gac being neutral but figured if I was just passing along our kill target he wouldn't get too much info on the team - whoever we were killing was about to end up dead. Then we changed targets from Elenna to AV, and AV didn't die. I think I also got excited about helping from beyond the grave and that clouded my judgement.

Also, going to point out something buried in the dead chat but my first pick for a role was Jake from State Farm - I had an idea for how it could work for Town but no idea for Wolf.

[Rogan]

I kinda hoped you would keep defending me, at the beginning I was trying to act genuinely townie and I definitely wouldn't have wolfread you Day 1. Later on it became about trying to paint you as another wolf once we knew I was dieing.

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Mafia Chat here

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This was not my best game. I didn't have much of a good reason for y'all not to lynch me Day One and with Snow's power being so much more important I figured bussing was a really good move for her.

I wasn't completely sure about gac being neutral but figured if I was just passing along our kill target he wouldn't get too much info on the team - whoever we were killing was about to end up dead. Then we changed targets from Elenna to AV, and AV didn't die. I think I also got excited about helping from beyond the grave and that clouded my judgement.

Also, going to point out something buried in the dead chat but my first pick for a role was Jake from State Farm - I had an idea for how it could work for Town but no idea for Wolf.

It worked at first. The bad side effect was, I immediately picked up Snow as my alternative target and stayed there the whole time, so you couldn't capitalize on it too much.
When I proposed another target shortly before the end of day, I was mostly interested to see if someone was willing to go there. I was not happy about you as the lynch target, but to be honest, you were a good target there.
I was not too worried about looking like a wolf. It made it more likely that I would survive the night instead of being targeted by the wolves. Okay, it could have provoked a Town vig, but in this case I would have something to joke about with Xihirli (this time I was the Seer killed night 1).

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Thanks for the link. Seems like you had a lot to talk in there. I'll probably won't read everything before I go to bed, but I will read a bit.

At least this is going to be the game where we don’t get each other killed. Well, unless some distancing goes horribly wrong.

Snow, this was oddly prophetic.

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In the end, your hints didn't change that much. I guess it would have been more dangerous without me misleading town so much day 2.
But I can understand your position. Dying day 1 must be annoying, especially in a game where so many things happened, and gac gave you a chance to keep participating.
I'm not sure if I had done the same, but I would be tempted.

[Elenna]

Yeah, I figured it was best for town to kill me. (I mean, technically it would be best for town if they left me alive and were all 100% convinced I was town, but that wasn't going to happen.)

Belated realization based on the deadchat that my being alive would have just given Snow one more known role name. So yeah, my death was definitely for the best.

By the way, why did wolves decide to proactively bring up the hints about not revealing role names? Did you just think it was obvious? I think it was mostly Cao and Bat who convinced everyone that role names were meaningful, IDK about anyone else but I probably wouldn't have noticed the hints if they hadn't said anything.

Saying the second part is not mechanically meaningful suggests that the first one is. But I'd lean toward there being multiple ways that the role names will play into the game. If it was all bad, then everyone could just not say their "proper role name" and it would be fine. I won't be saying mine though (which is a shame, I was looking forward to bringing more RP into these games)

If the whole "ominous presence" bit is something more than just flavor, it does seem probable that there's a serial killer or some other third party, presumably with powers and/or a wincon tied to people's identities.

- - - Updated - - -

But like... realistically I'm not going to be the deep wolf no-one ever suspects.

[Rogan]

Bat, the fact that I used double spaces was just an odd thing to happen. Only now I can see your chat.

[Elenna]

Also, I was correct in my N1 speculation that the Snowblaze wagon was started by non-wolves and wolves didn't intend for it to be the counterwagon! I just missed the rather important part where Snow was also a wolf...

[Batcathat]

Bat, the fact that I used double spaces was just an odd thing to happen. Only now I can see your chat.

Yeah, I figured. It was weird though, since you were the only one to do so consistently. It's kind of a shame we didn't get more use out of it as a code, especially since it's unlikely I dare use it again (well, unless I play a game with completely different players and/or years away from this one, I guess ).

[gac3]

OMG. Reading the wolf chat was a hoot for me. It was interesting to see the hints they picked up on and either did or didn't read enough into.

Also is it just me, or does gac3 seem to be too confident on AV not bussing? Think they might have mechanical proof?

It was just one in a long number of attempts to both tell town things in case I died before my reveal and also let wolves know I could see things.

I get it. I think.


gac3 can see inside QTs, can't they? They used my exact wording about Red Atlantic Cruise.

I'm really scared now.

This made all the confusion feel worth it. That I could end up putting such fear into the hearts of wolves.

gac3, if you're a neutral who can see messages in this QT, use the word "absolutely" in your next post.

(Also if that means you're the Serial Killer I'm down for a mutual non-destruction pact until we've killed more town.)

If you're town and can see messages in this QT the game is broken and I will be very annoyed at Unavenger.

I was really hoping "can see these messages" would be their assumption. However it got tricky because I wasn't lined up time wise with cape so I know I posted after this without absolutely. So I tried squeezing it into several posts to make i obvious. Funnily enough, when I was a coach my students teased me because of the flamboyancy and frequency with which I said "absolutely" so this had me dying.

One possible code (that I thought of in Craziest idea but never had any use for since I couldn't get any cult members) is to put an extra space between two words. It doesn't show up when you look at the post, but it shows up if you quote it (plus, it probably looks like a mistake to someone who does notice, as long as it's not used too much). Not sure if it's useful here, but I figured I'd mention it.

This was a good idea. Honestly, I wouldn't read into it normally. However I did also frequently would accidentally double space and decided to just leave them for kicks.

Also I'm slightly scared gac3 isn't actually on our side. But if that's the case I have no idea what they're doing.

Well yes. Do you have any idea how hard it is to try to convince wolves I'm on their side while also trying to filter through their intel for truth and also trying to help town. This was an exhausting yet fun role but to everyone, even myself my actions seemed to make no sense.

Okay, below are the messages I've found with double spaces (with the words before and after bolded). Since my brain is tired, perhaps you can help me figure out if I'm at least playing with a full deck here. If these are all the words you intended to mark, say "great", if I'm missing something, say "fine" and if I'm including something that shouldn't be there, say "bad". (The last too can obviously both be used if needed). Don't force it in if it doesn't work in your next post, better to wait then look bad.

"I had absolutely convinced myself of it when suddenly Xi dropped dead."
"If you don't, it's still absolutely true."
"Town?????. I thought you were neutral????"
"Either that or Fext is lying now and wasn't before and is just trying to cover their butt under pressure. Either they are scum or AV is the serial killer."

(It's entirely possible I'm making this more complicated than it has to be, but I'm finding it kinda fun).

Turns out I wasn't imagining seeing the thing about AV, I just wasn't going far enough back when I tried to double check. Adding two quotes:

"Absolutely I did. Well sort of. My power doesn't work on the exact day night cycle. "

"Absolutely. I was being asked a bout AV."

I bet this is around the time cape told me "I love my team, they are over analyzing everything" and my immediate thought was "Snow and Bat"... but then talked myself out of that specific pairing because it was less than real evidence and plenty of people might over analyze more than I actively knew. Also I agree with Cape and it also explains the "they get it now, you can stop" messages he was giving.

Also I feel really bad for gac3. They basically correctly caught me as a wolf, but no-one believes them because of the lie detector and “there’s no way Snowblaze is ever partners with Caoimhin”.

I feel bad for town in general with the lie detector. But not too bad!

I did. I really did. Oh well. We still caught you in the end but this will likely be one of the more memorable games for me personally.





Also.... I promised snow I would come back for this...

I already answered this? I said I thought we were guessing the most likely person to die. I thought Elenna might die. Then I changed my might to AV being a likely death candidate. I was t that far off on that guess.

- - - Updated - - -

You snowblaze, should reread some of my posts today. Do an ISO and see what you think.

Oh, right, I must have missed that at some point. Sorry. (I probably didn't take much of the thread in, it's too early in the morning.)

I already ISOed you, so I don't exactly feel like doing it again. General re-evaluation and working out which townreads I should keep and which I shouldn't are my priorities. I definitely won't just blindly write you off as "POE, can die" though.

Also I just realised AV is actually claiming to have been roleblocked. I was meming but now I'm genuinely paranoid.

Oh well. That's fine. I was hoping you'd get a specific reference I made in the night. But I'll explain it after the game I guess.

This exchange was before contact was established (I'm pretty sure) and all about me trying to be like "Snow, I know you are a wolf. If you doubt it, see what I've said." as obviously as I could without saying it. However, I didn't even see mention of it in the wolf chat so I guess it didn't work. Oh well. I said I'd explain it after the game.

[Snowblaze]

No, you saying that “I guess I’ll tell you in post game” genuinely was the thing that finally made me click. I was half-asleep when catching up and didn’t really twig on the other stuff. That’s when I posted the “oh, I get it” in wolfchat.

I didn’t reply because I at least managed to figure out that replying was as good as telling you I was a wolf. And that telling you I was a wolf wasn’t a good move.

Also I love how “overanalysing” = “Snowblaze and Batcathat”.

[Batcathat]

Also I love how “overanalysing” = “Snowblaze and Batcathat”.

We should make this our new thing. It's way better than "Keep killing each other".

[Snowblaze]

We should make this our new thing. It's way better than "Keep killing each other".

Agreed. Snowblaze and Batcathat, partners in overanalysis and definitely not any form of crime. I like it!

Sig updated with stats. I need to start winning again!

[Rogan]

Agreed. Snowblaze and Batcathat, partners in overanalysis and definitely not any form of crime. I like it!

Sig updated with stats. I need to start winning again!

Can we be partners next time as well? I propose too many theories and you sort out the bad ones?
On that notice, I think you were in all 4 games I played and each and every time, we were in opposing teams.

[Snowblaze]

Can we be partners next time as well? I propose too many theories and you sort out the bad ones?
On that notice, I think you were in all 4 games I played and each and every time, we were in opposing teams.

Sure, sounds good (inb4 Snowblaze/Batcathat/Rogan wolfteam).

And yup, we were. Looking forward to finally being on the same side!

[Rogan]

Sure, sounds good (inb4 Snowblaze/Batcathat/Rogan wolfteam).

And yup, we were. Looking forward to finally being on the same side!

Shhht! You were not supposed to warn them beforehand

Pseudo statistically, the chances are good. I mean, getting on different sides 5 times in a row? That really unlikely! (Unfortunately, the alignments are usually selected at random and therefore independent from the previous games, but hey... who cares?)

[Snowblaze]

...so apparently my brain has now decided that calculating the probability of being different alignments five games in a row is a productive use of my time.

Spoiler: Maths

Show

Let’s say for the sake of not destroying my brain that in any given game any given player has a 75% chance of being town and 25% of being a wolf.

Then the probability that I’m town and Rogan is a wolf is 3/4 x 1/4 which is 3/16 and the probability that I’m a wolf and Rogan is town is the same. So the probability of Rogan and I not sharing an alignment is 3/8.

And the probability of that happening in five games is 3/8 to the power of five which is... *reaches for calculator* 243/32768 or 0.74%. Pretty unlikely.

Right, now I can actually get on with important stuff.

[gac3]

Agreed. Snowblaze and Batcathat, partners in overanalysis and definitely not any form of crime. I like it!

Sig updated with stats. I need to start winning again!

Stop being a wolf and maybe you will win more.

[Rogan]

Stop being a wolf and maybe you will win more.

That's not fair. The last two games, she lost despite being town! And the game before these, she wasn't a wolf either (but Serial Killer is probably even worse).

[Snowblaze]

Yeah, I’m not even statistically a wolf. Statistically neutral since my return, I think.

(The SK one was my fault, I did pick it knowing victory was basically impossible.)

[Batcathat]

My latest four losses were as wolf, town, cult and neutral so I guess I can lose regardless of alignment. The fact that there are four of them also mean I've now lost more games than I've won. To maintain balance, I should really win next game, preferably as wolf or neutral (my wins are two town and one wolf).

[Rogan]

My latest four losses were as wolf, town, cult and neutral so I guess I can lose regardless of alignment. The fact that there are four of them also mean I've now lost more games than I've won. To maintain balance, I should really win next game, preferably as wolf or neutral (my wins are two town and one wolf).

How about a win as the sole cultist, who plays like a neutral serial killer?

[Batcathat]

How about a win as the sole cultist, who plays like a neutral serial killer?

While that would be cool, I've already tried the life of a sole cultist and I think I'd prefer some cult buddies next time. No wonder cult leaders get minions, it's lonely when you don't have anyone to listen to your doomsday sermons.

[Rogan]

While that would be cool, I've already tried the life of a sole cultist and I think I'd prefer some cult buddies next time. No wonder cult leaders get minions, it's lonely when you don't have anyone to listen to your doomsday sermons.

Ahh, yes. That's really a huge disadvantage. Maybe you could take advantage of Caos power and broadcast your speeches? Of course, you would still lack the admiration of your followers...

I guess, a regular wolf win would be better for you. Which means Snow and I have to join you, it's inevitable now.

Town, please forget this until the next game ends!

[gac3]

I'm hoping for a chance to be a wolf soon. Last time I was a wolf I nearly immediately outed myself to AV by accidentally suggesting that we do the exact plan they had just started.

[AvatarVecna]

Afterlife 2 is now recruiting.