A Monster for Every Season: Summer 2
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  1. - Top - End - #151
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    You knew AV wasn't baned because...?
    You are right. I didn't know, per se. What I knew was that I didn't bane them; implied that I did; and the only person other than the Goof and myself who claimed to have a bane was the Wombat. I'd call that a safe bet.

    Or I would be banned?
    The Goof was instructed to bane you.

    Do you know something that makes you sure about other people's action?
    Nope. I started the game with one power. I only have two now because I received a temporary one from Moonfly.

    (Your emphasis on the words also sounds very similar to something I said as a wolf in Love Letter. But this might be coincidence)
    Good thing I'm not you, then.

  2. - Top - End - #152
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Living Players

    • AvatarVecna - locked town
    • Snowblaze - town or really aggressive at bus driving
    • Batcathat - might be scum
    • SupaGoof - he hinted at his role, was protecting me and is on the scum list (which is definitely false) so he is town
    • Taffimai - I keep forgetting her, so ??? Survivor
    • Moonfly7 - is gifting useful powers. Townie
    • BladeScape - locked town
    • Elenna - some scum points
    • Metastachydium - some scum points
    • Rogan - town


    We are looking for 3 wolves at maximum.
    Squinting a lot, I could see Snow, Bat, Taff, Elenna, Meta.
    So 4 of 10 players contain up to 3 wolves.
    Last edited by Rogan; 2021-10-24 at 02:38 PM. Reason: Taff shall Survive

  3. - Top - End - #153
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    RedKnightGirl

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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    * cough *

    extra characters
    78% of DM's started their first campaign in a tavern. If you're one of the 22% that didn't, copy and paste this into your signature.
    The cleric was walking through a forest when he heard a loud explosion. Upon investigation, he quickly uncovered the ruins of a large tower he couldn't remember seeing there before. He decided to search the rubble for anything worth looting. At that point, I told the wizard to start rolling to see if he would stabilise.
    Hi Gac! Sorry for lynching you :(

  4. - Top - End - #154
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by Taffimai View Post
    * cough *

    extra characters
    Ah, yes. Thanks. Did I mention I keep forgetting you?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Moon? Do you know if the kill you gifted will show your color or the color of the shooter?

    I assume the later, so Meta has an even better chance to show the true color.

    So I'll check Snow instead.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Batcathat for... no really good
    ...reasons.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  5. - Top - End - #155
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Ah, yes. Thanks. Did I mention I keep forgetting you?

    - - - Updated - - -

    Moon? Do you know if the kill you gifted will show your color or the color of the shooter?

    I assume the later, so Meta has an even better chance to show the true color.

    So I'll check Snow instead.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Batcathat for... no really good
    ...reasons.
    I'm going to assume that all townies have the same color?

    And yeah, it should be his color, my power but it's him doing it. And good news is he can't really use it for mafia stuff because if he does I will absolutely know it was him due to flavor text, and even with 2 town kills tonight he wouldn't kill enough of us to matter.

    So here's my own personal issue with this:
    Rogan and AV are assuming his answers are always false. I disagree. I think that the answer left out wombat ebcause of his weirdness, and that they interfered with each others powers. If we still kill based on the question I think we'll be killing 2 of the 3 remaining wolves.

    But there are glaring flaws with this theory, mostly that Wombat was in SK mode when the question was asked, and should have been deemed hostile on it. Still, I don't think your assertion that it's always wrong is 100% correct.

  6. - Top - End - #156
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    I'm going to assume that all townies have the same color?

    And yeah, it should be his color, my power but it's him doing it. And good news is he can't really use it for mafia stuff because if he does I will absolutely know it was him due to flavor text, and even with 2 town kills tonight he wouldn't kill enough of us to matter.

    So here's my own personal issue with this:
    Rogan and AV are assuming his answers are always false. I disagree. I think that the answer left out wombat ebcause of his weirdness, and that they interfered with each others powers. If we still kill based on the question I think we'll be killing 2 of the 3 remaining wolves.

    But there are glaring flaws with this theory, mostly that Wombat was in SK mode when the question was asked, and should have been deemed hostile on it. Still, I don't think your assertion that it's always wrong is 100% correct.
    Soo... you assume the mech locked neutral is in fact scum? That's... bold.
    If the answer to the question had been Book, AV and Goof, I would have been extremely disappointed by AV, but would have believed the answer.

    In order for the answer to be correct, Taff would have to be scum, Book would have to have registered as Survivor, since he was survivor when the question was asked (or something like that) and AV would need to have knowledge about Taff being Scum or she actually asked the question (to learn the identity of the killer) while being scum AND she did nothing to stop me from getting an answer. She even asked her scum buddy Goof to protect me.
    Alternative theory would be, goof was lying from the very beginning and has a power to mess with other powers of she knows the name. In this case, Goof had targeted me and was watched by Elenna. My result was changed to show two scum members and one nearly impossible target. AV suggest that my power gives the wrong result every time and by doing so protects the whole wolf team.
    Both theories are absurd, require the perfect powerset for scum and it would be against my read of AV after our fight.

    I'd rather believe that you and Snow are the scum team and you try to protect each other with the gifted scry explanation. In this case, Snow either didn't get a scry, or she used it on someone else.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  7. - Top - End - #157
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Soo... you assume the mech locked neutral is in fact scum? That's... bold.
    If the answer to the question had been Book, AV and Goof, I would have been extremely disappointed by AV, but would have believed the answer.

    In order for the answer to be correct, Taff would have to be scum, Book would have to have registered as Survivor, since he was survivor when the question was asked (or something like that) and AV would need to have knowledge about Taff being Scum or she actually asked the question (to learn the identity of the killer) while being scum AND she did nothing to stop me from getting an answer. She even asked her scum buddy Goof to protect me.
    Alternative theory would be, goof was lying from the very beginning and has a power to mess with other powers of she knows the name. In this case, Goof had targeted me and was watched by Elenna. My result was changed to show two scum members and one nearly impossible target. AV suggest that my power gives the wrong result every time and by doing so protects the whole wolf team.
    Both theories are absurd, require the perfect powerset for scum and it would be against my read of AV after our fight.

    I'd rather believe that you and Snow are the scum team and you try to protect each other with the gifted scry explanation. In this case, Snow either didn't get a scry, or she used it on someone else.
    Your missunderstanding what I'm saying here. And also I did mention that there were flaws with it, did I not? I just don't believe Unavenger would blatantly lie to you about your power that much. I think there's a weakness but not that big of one.

    And did I say I thought Taff was guilty? No, I didn't. I'm not 100% on it, but the text color is pretty good evidence that she isn't. And I don't suspect AV. In fact I've mentioned before, more than once, that I think that both of you using it together caused some kind of feedback loop. I do think that the ultimate question provided at least one correct answer. But I'm not certain hence why I haven't cast a vote yet. Don't go accusing me and even snow of something based on what is basically wild speculations on my part.

    All I'm really arguing is that I feel like were all being way to quick to believe that you only got false answers. Rather, I would bank on the idea that we recieved some, but not all, unreliable info. For the record I think some of it is true. I just don't think the issue is as simple as were making it, and it's bothering me that everyone is accepting said explanation so quickly.

    Also, I've been pointing out once or twice that we still don't know what snow's power is and that Snow could have been running around us from the start with that Cao vote. I'm not saying I think she was, but....I do think it's a possibility we need to consider? Maybe I'm being paranoid, but doesn't it feel convenient she used my power on someone who died? And that after we've killed Cao so easily literally n one else has been caught?

    Ok, wait, who originally asked the questions you checked? I just had the crasiest thought. WHat if, when your using a Wolves(and SK's?) question, you get a false answer?

    - - - Updated - - -

    We need to look at who asked your questions, that could be whats throwing us off. Or I could be very wrong. Obviously I'm throwing out crazy random Ideas. I'm not outright accusing snow obviously, but I feel like we've stagnated, we've got no idea whats going on anymore, we need to question everything and throw out wild theories for a minute, and maybe in the hundreds of pounds of crap, we'll find some golden truth.
    Last edited by moonfly7; 2021-10-24 at 05:01 PM.

  8. - Top - End - #158
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    Your missunderstanding what I'm saying here. And also I did mention that there were flaws with it, did I not? I just don't believe Unavenger would blatantly lie to you about your power that much. I think there's a weakness but not that big of one.

    And did I say I thought Taff was guilty? No, I didn't. I'm not 100% on it, but the text color is pretty good evidence that she isn't. And I don't suspect AV. In fact I've mentioned before, more than once, that I think that both of you using it together caused some kind of feedback loop. I do think that the ultimate question provided at least one correct answer. But I'm not certain hence why I haven't cast a vote yet. Don't go accusing me and even snow of something based on what is basically wild speculations on my part.

    All I'm really arguing is that I feel like were all being way to quick to believe that you only got false answers. Rather, I would bank on the idea that we recieved some, but not all, unreliable info. For the record I think some of it is true. I just don't think the issue is as simple as were making it, and it's bothering me that everyone is accepting said explanation so quickly.

    Also, I've been pointing out once or twice that we still don't know what snow's power is and that Snow could have been running around us from the start with that Cao vote. I'm not saying I think she was, but....I do think it's a possibility we need to consider? Maybe I'm being paranoid, but doesn't it feel convenient she used my power on someone who died? And that after we've killed Cao so easily literally n one else has been caught?

    Ok, wait, who originally asked the questions you checked? I just had the crasiest thought. WHat if, when your using a Wolves(and SK's?) question, you get a false answer?

    - - - Updated - - -

    We need to look at who asked your questions, that could be whats throwing us off. Or I could be very wrong. Obviously I'm throwing out crazy random Ideas. I'm not outright accusing snow obviously, but I feel like we've stagnated, we've got no idea whats going on anymore, we need to question everything and throw out wild theories for a minute, and maybe in the hundreds of pounds of crap, we'll find some golden truth.
    The result I had was AV, Goof, Taff. AV got Rogan, Goof, Taff.
    So in order to get two of 3 wolves by going by the question, either Taff or AV or myself would have to be scum.
    Unless you meant my first question when you said 2 of 3 wolves?

    I think, getting always false results is not very nice, but at least you can still use the power to gain some insights after you figured out how it worked. Getting in effect random results would mean the power is 100% useless. No, it's worse than useless. It would cause only confusion and could not help in any way.

    Your other theory is not possible either. Snow made the first statement/question. She could be scum, but it's unlikely. But the second question was asked by captain Cap. He is dead and definitely town.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  9. - Top - End - #159
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by Metastachydium View Post
    The funny thing is, I did recently (as in at dawn) acquire a one-shot power I'll have to use or lose next night. Somehow. It has nothing to do with my main power or my role, for that matter. It's also kinda creepy, but Unavenger confirmed that it's not an Evil thing.
    My main power, on the other hand is not a one-shot thing:
    This little bit here makes me want to give Meta some town points. I don't think mafia would think to add the bit about it not being evil. They'd just say they got it and it was creepy, maybe even hint that I could be evil because of it. Unless it somehow benefits them to not? I don't think it would've triggered a lynch on Meta, or made it any worse. I think he legitimately asked Unavenger and Unavenger told him it wasn't, and if he was Mafia he wouldn't have asked. Unless he thought I was the SK..... Obviously not even a clear, but I do think it's something.

    Also just wanted to say, Taff and Goof are on the initial list. If, for some ridiculous crazy reason, we only had 3 werewolves at the beggining, which I doubt so much, we would have all of our wolves in that batch right there. But obviously if we assume that all answers are incorrect, it doesn't work.

    Also, I know for a fact your ability isn't giving only lies. I'm not a hostile. And my name isn't on your list, if it were lying it would name all non-hostiles. Obviously you have no reason to believe me, but thats proof enough to me that your wrong about the ability. There has got to be something else going on with it. Unless you believe that everyone accept AV, Rogan, Goof, and Taff are wolves, and that would be a ridiculous number of wolves.

  10. - Top - End - #160
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    But you are right, things are too silent at the moment. If we were 100% correct, the wolves probably would surrender.

    So... if we have cleared someone without good reason, who would it be?
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  11. - Top - End - #161
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    The result I had was AV, Goof, Taff. AV got Rogan, Goof, Taff.
    So in order to get two of 3 wolves by going by the question, either Taff or AV or myself would have to be scum.
    Unless you meant my first question when you said 2 of 3 wolves?

    I think, getting always false results is not very nice, but at least you can still use the power to gain some insights after you figured out how it worked. Getting in effect random results would mean the power is 100% useless. No, it's worse than useless. It would cause only confusion and could not help in any way.

    Your other theory is not possible either. Snow made the first statement/question. She could be scum, but it's unlikely. But the second question was asked by captain Cap. He is dead and definitely town.
    I meant that each of your posts gave 2/3 wolves, with you and AV being innocent. I'm thinking using both abilities at once gave each others names somehow. And, if anything if I'm right about both of your names showing up via a "same power at once" kinda glitch thing(No I don't have any idea what the redacted wording would have to say for that to happen) then Cap being innocent and Snow being innocent only proves the theory more.
    But again I'm not married to the idea, just tossing out ideas wildly, that being said, what I am married to 100% is that it cannot just be as simple as false answers, if it were, everyone but you, AV, Taff, and goof would be non-hostile, and everyone else hostile.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    But you are right, things are too silent at the moment. If we were 100% correct, the wolves probably would surrender.

    So... if we have cleared someone without good reason, who would it be?
    I hate to say it, but maybe Snow? I-I don't think it's snow. I don't want to think it's snow. And she had no reason to stick up for me, although I would have called her out if she didn't, but still. But, Snow's only claim to innocence, at all, is the vote on Cao, and her being made the counter wagon. She's never been mechanically cleared, never been checked, and never offered a single hint of her powers that I can tell. So here's a question, beyond the gift I gave her, which by the way gave us no useful info, what can snow actually do? Do we have any idea?

    - - - Updated - - -

    BatCatHat hasn't been cleared but we also have 0 knowledge of what they can do, literally zilch. And we're only now questioning it and that obviously causes me concern.

    Personally, I think we should just Lynch Goof, and then see if they're mafia. If they aren't, the list was completely wrong. If they were, then your ability likely gives only 1 correct answer per thing. Goof was on this list, and the last one. But I do agree that Taff is mech cleared, and I really do believe in you and AV. I think AV being wolf works in no universe only because they were on one list and not the other. No matter how you slice the lists wrongness, and it is wrong we just don't know how, it looks really weird if they were mafia. I suppose she could have lied about getting Rogan, but again, I press X to doubt that. So I still think AV is town.

  12. - Top - End - #162
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    I meant that each of your posts gave 2/3 wolves, with you and AV being innocent. I'm thinking using both abilities at once gave each others names somehow. And, if anything if I'm right about both of your names showing up via a "same power at once" kinda glitch thing(No I don't have any idea what the redacted wording would have to say for that to happen) then Cap being innocent and Snow being innocent only proves the theory more.
    But again I'm not married to the idea, just tossing out ideas wildly, that being said, what I am married to 100% is that it cannot just be as simple as false answers, if it were, everyone but you, AV, Taff, and goof would be non-hostile, and everyone else hostile.

    - - - Updated - - -



    I hate to say it, but maybe Snow? I-I don't think it's snow. I don't want to think it's snow. And she had no reason to stick up for me, although I would have called her out if she didn't, but still. But, Snow's only claim to innocence, at all, is the vote on Cao, and her being made the counter wagon. She's never been mechanically cleared, never been checked, and never offered a single hint of her powers that I can tell. So here's a question, beyond the gift I gave her, which by the way gave us no useful info, what can snow actually do? Do we have any idea?
    That's not what I suggested. There are two possible fakes:

    1) we received true answers to the opposite of the question we asked. If this is true, then the answer we got is the only three pro town players, which is patently ridiculous. It would also require that a neutral be explicitly pro-town.

    2) we received fake answers to the question we asked. Thus, every name we received is not an anti-town role. This also explains the overlap: if this is how the question works, maximizing overlap gives us the least new information, makes even the fake answer not nearly as useful as hoped.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Moonfpy is doing a really good job convincing me to lynch somebody other than Elenna.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    That's not what I suggested. There are two possible fakes:

    1) we received true answers to the opposite of the question we asked. If this is true, then the answer we got is the only three pro town players, which is patently ridiculous. It would also require that a neutral be explicitly pro-town.

    2) we received fake answers to the question we asked. Thus, every name we received is not an anti-town role. This also explains the overlap: if this is how the question works, maximizing overlap gives us the least new information, makes even the fake answer not nearly as useful as hoped.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Moonfpy is doing a really good job convincing me to lynch somebody other than Elenna.
    I can't tell if this is you saying you want to lynch me, or if your agreeing with some of my assertions. Gonna assume your saying lynch but I hope not.

    Anyways I'm a bit sus on Elena too honestly.

    And in case it will help you understand why I'm acting erratic, I'm falling back on tinfoil hat mode because everyone seems to be grasping at straws anyways. At least this way, I'm grasping at new straws with every random idea I fly with, and I might unearth something useful.
    Last edited by moonfly7; 2021-10-24 at 05:40 PM.

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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    This little bit here makes me want to give Meta some town points. I don't think mafia would think to add the bit about it not being evil. They'd just say they got it and it was creepy, maybe even hint that I could be evil because of it. Unless it somehow benefits them to not? I don't think it would've triggered a lynch on Meta, or made it any worse. I think he legitimately asked Unavenger and Unavenger told him it wasn't, and if he was Mafia he wouldn't have asked. Unless he thought I was the SK..... Obviously not even a clear, but I do think it's something.

    Also just wanted to say, Taff and Goof are on the initial list. If, for some ridiculous crazy reason, we only had 3 werewolves at the beggining, which I doubt so much, we would have all of our wolves in that batch right there. But obviously if we assume that all answers are incorrect, it doesn't work.

    Also, I know for a fact your ability isn't giving only lies. I'm not a hostile. And my name isn't on your list, if it were lying it would name all non-hostiles. Obviously you have no reason to believe me, but thats proof enough to me that your wrong about the ability. There has got to be something else going on with it. Unless you believe that everyone accept AV, Rogan, Goof, and Taff are wolves, and that would be a ridiculous number of wolves.
    So here are the questions and answers, for reference. I even included the part about the first mistake in the first answer.

    Spoiler: Quotes
    Show

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan in QT
    Snow: "AvatarVecna/Captain Cap/Supagoof/gac3/Book Wombat/Xihirli/bladescape/Taffamai

    All wolves in that group?"

    ---

    Rogan, this statement is TRUE: "All living members of the Mafia are within AvatarVecna, Captain Cap, Supagoof, gac3, Book Wombat and Xihirli."

    ---

    Well, now I am paranoid again... The question included blades and Taffamai, but the answer leaves them out. This makes the answer even better for wolf hunting, but it's strange...
    Can you tell me if this was a mistake on your side?
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavengers Answer
    This was a mistake - I meant the entire list, not the partial list I stated. I don't know why I missed two of them out - I was rushing I guess.
    Quote Originally Posted by Captain Cap View Post

    Who are all the players in this game with an anti-town role?
    Quote Originally Posted by Answer
    AVATARVECNA, TAFFIMAI and SUPAGOOF are all of the players in the game with an anti-town role.


    I agree that Metas info about his detect evil power question for Unavenger is a point in his favor. Also a way to check hisalignment. So Meta should be save today. But he should get a kill under his belt to show his colors for sure.
    Maybe targeted at me, so every tinfoil argument about my guilt is removed. I wouldn't mind it.

    Now, my first question was "are all wolves in this group? " and I got the answer Yes, they are. The opposite of this is not guaranteed to be "No wolf is in this group", but it is possible. It surely is not "everyone not mentioned is a wolf"
    If this was the case, I think it would be game over by default.

    So, let's take a look at the first list again and remove the players who's alignment is known. We are left with
    AvatarVecna and Supagoof.

    It's nearly Impossible for AV to be scum.
    Goof might be, but according to Elenna, he was targeting me n2, like I asked him to do.

    So it seems likely that there are no wolves in this list. Which makes me paranoid about snow again... getting no wolf in a POE of half the players? Sure, things seemed reasonable, but Snow was universally town read after Cao flipped. So if it was a bus, it was well worth losing this one wolf.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I miss Book and his table... And Cao and his vote counts...

    Also, if Snow really is scum, I would have been right about her on Day 1, I only failed to build enough of a case for her guilt.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
    Show
    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  15. - Top - End - #165
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    So here are the questions and answers, for reference. I even included the part about the first mistake in the first answer.

    Spoiler: Quotes
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    I agree that Metas info about his detect evil power question for Unavenger is a point in his favor. Also a way to check hisalignment. So Meta should be save today. But he should get a kill under his belt to show his colors for sure.
    Maybe targeted at me, so every tinfoil argument about my guilt is removed. I wouldn't mind it.

    Now, my first question was "are all wolves in this group? " and I got the answer Yes, they are. The opposite of this is not guaranteed to be "No wolf is in this group", but it is possible. It surely is not "everyone not mentioned is a wolf"
    If this was the case, I think it would be game over by default.

    So, let's take a look at the first list again and remove the players who's alignment is known. We are left with
    AvatarVecna and Supagoof.

    It's nearly Impossible for AV to be scum.
    Goof might be, but according to Elenna, he was targeting me n2, like I asked him to do.

    So it seems likely that there are no wolves in this list. Which makes me paranoid about snow again... getting no wolf in a POE of half the players? Sure, things seemed reasonable, but Snow was universally town read after Cao flipped. So if it was a bus, it was well worth losing this one wolf.
    Unless Elena and Goof are both Mafia.

    And yeah, you see my tinfoil worries about snow now? It's a classic play: Pit two of your people against each other, one dies, the other is now a hero. And you know whats funny? We are wise to that ploy, I have seen people accuse nearly everyone but snow of bussing(and even vaguely snow once or twice, but never seriously, we're all too convinced she's innocent), and yet we haven't ever taken a hard stance to disbelieve the one who would've gained the most from a bus. And your right, shes given nearly zilch to the group in hard evidence besides that, beyond clearing me. And moreso, once again I'm gonna say it: It feels way to coincidental that she checked the only person who died last night.

    Only 1 person died last night, and out of all of her targets Snowblaze picked the one, single person who got ganked to check? It just feels weird.

    I-I think I might be starting to convince myself of this honestly. I'm still thinking voting Supagoofis the best choice but, I'm thinking maybe the crazy tinfoil hat Snow case has more merit than we thought? I could be wrong, and I'm likely signing my death warrant for even suggesting it, but you have to admit that it doesn't sound impossible. Snow has given us no new info really, and has no mech clear or ever explained her powers. I think I'd like an ability reveal right now, Snowblaze. If not, I'm changing my vote. I don't care if this sounds suspicious or even insane, I'm making that challenge and I am willing to die on this hill. If she won't give us anything to work with, my vote switches to snow.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Oh, and BTW, if I'm right about snow, she has info about one of our roles and powers she didn't have before. Courtesy of me, no less.
    Last edited by moonfly7; 2021-10-24 at 08:00 PM.

  16. - Top - End - #166
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    My thought right now: if meta kills somebody in the night using the power from moonfly, that allows us to check out an untrusted townie via the kill, but also allows us to check meta via the kill color. If I'm willing to consider basically all possibilities, then the only people cleared of being mafia are me, blade, rogan, and taffamai. That leaves 6 possible mafia members if I'm adding snow and goof to the list.

    Hypothetical situation:

    D3: starts 7-1-2, lynch supagoof (?), ends 6-1-2
    N3: starts 6-1-2, scum NK AV (town), blade NK Elenna (?), meta NK moon (?/?), ends ?-1-?.

    At this point in the hypothetical, we've checked four people on our list of six, one of whom is meta (who got checked by virtue of their kill color). If those are all townie results...well, that means there's only two possible scum left (in this case, snow and BCH), and we've only got two scum roles left to fill. The only real issue with this method is if there's three wolves left (but 4 scum and an SK feels a bit much? especially with how many kill powers have been floating around, including a full-time vigilante). Meta gets checked as long as there's new kill fluff with a color, regardless of what that color is. The only way that doesn't happen is if meta tries to kill somebody who's baned, or if meta doesn't use the power. But since the known banes are the dead supagoof and meta himself, surely those wouldn't get in the way of the kill. Heck, even if we lynch somebody besides goof, as long as goof is baning one of our locktown, it still shouldn't get in the way of meta's kill. Meta could get roleblocked perhaps...

    New hypothetical:

    D3: starts 6-1-3, lynch supagoof (?), ends 5-1-3
    N3: starts 5-1-3, scum NK AV (town), blade NK Elenna (?), meta NK moon (?/?), ends ?-1-?.

    At this point, we've hit four people in our list of six, in a game with three remaining mafia members. Unless somebody hits outside our list of six for some reason, there's no way we didn't hit at least one scum, making this (at worst) town/town/town/scum, and the game is 2-1-2 at this point.


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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by Supagoof View Post
    Um....no?

    Maybe you should flip your list and give it the scrutiny of "If they were a wolf..." and see what you come up with. That would be something to do. I mean, look at the ones not on it. If you've been wrong every time, and you have a list that "has a wolf on it", then to be right you would have to say inverse of that and proclaim "My list doesn't have a wolf on it".

    Where are we at with the blue count?
    Goof seems to be the true prophet here. I don't think a wolf would sabotage Wolf!Snows plan to mislead town to shoot in a nearly all wrong POE. So if Snow is wolf, Goof isn't.

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    For why I'm waiting: it's better if my role stays secret for as long as it can, for all of us. It's not superpowerful but I'm not jinxing it by spilling the beans earlier than necassary. And there hasn't been a good reason to out myself yet, since beyond a few off the cuff accusations and offhand threats no one's accused me really. If it gets bad, I'll clear myself.

    And I can answer your second question too:
    My role is the other illegal one. Noticed it halfway through the first day on accident. Then Unavanger fixed the issue.
    What exactly was fixed?

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    I will try out a technique by AV and try to paint every single statement into the most negative light possible.

    You don't want towns vig to shoot book, who is highly suspected of being scum. This way, you will have a good target for the lynch later. You only say reasons, which is an incredible vague way to hint that you have more info than the rest of us, it's impossible to search for contradictions like we did about Book.

    You also want to keep the town vig away from AV. Maybe you are the serial killer and want to kill her yourself, but you don't want a kill to be wasted. Or you want to keep her alive as a possible lynch target. This one only works if you expect her to be unable to work as a backup prophet, but you might know something about her. I wonder if a serial killer could have been told the identity of the wolves as a way to make them stronger? This way the killer could always keep the balance and prevent one side from gaining the upper hand.

    Your own defense is only "I know my alignment" which is incredibly easy to fake and can't be checked without using mech. You avoid giving other reasons since they would all prove you are not a wolf, but nothing stops you from being the killer.

    I don't know how to scum read your case for Bat, but there surely is a way. Maybe you wanted to avoid being wrong all the time?

    Supagoof could be a wolf, yet you defend him for having a protective power. In a world with multiple town aligned kills, wolves need protection just as much as town. You don't want us to hit a wolf just yet, you need them as an excuse for the game to keep going.

    You don't want us to suspect Taff just yet, since you could try to paint him as the killer later if things start to look bad for you.
    You don't want us to kill Book, but I would only repeat my first point here.

    Moonfly... Well, you say that you want to talk about your reasons later. That's not really helpful. Maybe you need to forge your argument first?

    Blades killed a townie. That's not really pro town. But the town color is hard to fake.

    Elenna and Meta (and me)... the reads about them are okay on it's own, but you keep mentioning my power could be wrong. That's setting up a lynch for me if I somehow survive the night!
    Maybe rereading this would help?

    Quote Originally Posted by Metastachydium View Post
    I think you made a couple of huge mistakes, but I mourn your loss nonetheless, Fext!
    Likewise, sorry Cap! We should have believed you.


    How come I'm apparently the only one without a kill power when some of us got two?


    Neutrals are bad news, not to mention "neutrals". Book Wombat must die, and so should Taffimai.
    I bid thee a safe and fruitful hunt, bladescape!
    Hmmm... While I was agreeing at this point, it seems very convenient now. But the only other targets that might be scum was Goof, if I remember right.





    Spoiler: A table, please do not flip
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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    Original Table here
    Player Name Status? Identity?/Alignment? Powers?
    AvatarVecna Alive ??? JoaT (each power is one-use)??
    Bane?? (Used, failed)
    Kill (need identity)??
    Dayvig (works only on Serial Killer, used, failed)
    Feedback power (only after 1 shot immunity?)
    Duplicate power (need exact name, used successfully)
    Captain Cap Dead The Pied Piper of Hamelin/Town Roleblock, vote manipulation effect
    Snowblaze Alive ??? ???
    Batcathat Alive ??? ???
    Supagoof Alive ??? Protection, Beast?? Used on Rogan n2, not triggered
    Taffimai Alive ???/Survivor?? Dayvig (last to vote, used)
    gac3 extra Dead, for real this time Melinda Gordon/Town Dead chat access
    Book Wombat Dead Mr Hyde/ Killer & Dr Jekyll / Survivor Kill&night immunity / block & -1 vote
    fext Dead Flying Pumpkin/Town Night 1 Kill Immunity
    Kill
    Fast kill (only activates against Mafia/Serial Killer, one use)
    moonfly7 Alive ??? Gifting powers (full scry, kill, ..)
    Xihirli Wanted: Dead or Alive Blue Angel/Town Roleblock
    Kill (only those previously roleblocked)
    bladescape Alive (Game Show Host??)/Town Kill
    Elenna Alive ???
    Metastachydium Alive ??? Permanent Night kill immunity for targets??
    CaoimhinTheCape Dead Cecil Palmer/Mafia Mafia Kill
    Dawn broadcast
    Rogan Alive ??? Prophecy, wrong results


    Please check and help me fill the gaps.
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  18. - Top - End - #168
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    My thought right now: if meta kills somebody in the night using the power from moonfly, that allows us to check out an untrusted townie via the kill, but also allows us to check meta via the kill color. If I'm willing to consider basically all possibilities, then the only people cleared of being mafia are me, blade, rogan, and taffamai. That leaves 6 possible mafia members if I'm adding snow and goof to the list.

    Hypothetical situation:

    D3: starts 7-1-2, lynch supagoof (?), ends 6-1-2
    N3: starts 6-1-2, scum NK AV (town), blade NK Elenna (?), meta NK moon (?/?), ends ?-1-?.

    At this point in the hypothetical, we've checked four people on our list of six, one of whom is meta (who got checked by virtue of their kill color). If those are all townie results...well, that means there's only two possible scum left (in this case, snow and BCH), and we've only got two scum roles left to fill. The only real issue with this method is if there's three wolves left (but 4 scum and an SK feels a bit much? especially with how many kill powers have been floating around, including a full-time vigilante). Meta gets checked as long as there's new kill fluff with a color, regardless of what that color is. The only way that doesn't happen is if meta tries to kill somebody who's baned, or if meta doesn't use the power. But since the known banes are the dead supagoof and meta himself, surely those wouldn't get in the way of the kill. Heck, even if we lynch somebody besides goof, as long as goof is baning one of our locktown, it still shouldn't get in the way of meta's kill. Meta could get roleblocked perhaps...

    New hypothetical:

    D3: starts 6-1-3, lynch supagoof (?), ends 5-1-3
    N3: starts 5-1-3, scum NK AV (town), blade NK Elenna (?), meta NK moon (?/?), ends ?-1-?.

    At this point, we've hit four people in our list of six, in a game with three remaining mafia members. Unless somebody hits outside our list of six for some reason, there's no way we didn't hit at least one scum, making this (at worst) town/town/town/scum, and the game is 2-1-2 at this point.
    I think your right in who you can trust. Everyone else, including me, sadly, is not Mech cleared and should be considered a possible hostile. Obviously, I hate the idea of dying. Especially when I have both a bane, and a Roleblock left to give, but I can't argue with the application of the very logic I'm preaching. It's a solid plan. Although it does nothing to check snow, sadly. But you can do that afterwards, I suppose.
    Also it doesn't check BCH, whom I think is worth a check as well, but again, beggars can't be choosers.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Goof seems to be the true prophet here. I don't think a wolf would sabotage Wolf!Snows plan to mislead town to shoot in a nearly all wrong POE. So if Snow is wolf, Goof isn't.



    What exactly was fixed?


    Maybe rereading this would help?



    Hmmm... While I was agreeing at this point, it seems very convenient now. But the only other targets that might be scum was Goof, if I remember right.





    Spoiler: A table, please do not flip
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    Player Name Status? Identity?/Alignment? Powers?
    AvatarVecna Alive ??? JoaT (each power is one-use)??
    Bane?? (Used, failed)
    Kill (need identity)??
    Dayvig (works only on Serial Killer, used, failed)
    Feedback power (only after 1 shot immunity?)
    Duplicate power (need exact name, used successfully)
    Captain Cap Dead The Pied Piper of Hamelin/Town Roleblock, vote manipulation effect
    Snowblaze Alive ??? ???
    Batcathat Alive ??? ???
    Supagoof Alive ??? Protection, Beast?? Used on Rogan n2, not triggered
    Taffimai Alive ???/Survivor?? Dayvig (last to vote, used)
    gac3 extra Dead, for real this time Melinda Gordon/Town Dead chat access
    Book Wombat Dead Mr Hyde/ Killer & Dr Jekyll / Survivor Kill&night immunity / block & -1 vote
    fext Dead Flying Pumpkin/Town Night 1 Kill Immunity
    Kill
    Fast kill (only activates against Mafia/Serial Killer, one use)
    moonfly7 Alive ??? Gifting powers (full scry, kill, ..)
    Xihirli Wanted: Dead or Alive Blue Angel/Town Roleblock
    Kill (only those previously roleblocked)
    bladescape Alive (Game Show Host??)/Town Kill
    Elenna Alive ???
    Metastachydium Alive ??? Permanent Night kill immunity for targets??
    CaoimhinTheCape Dead Cecil Palmer/Mafia Mafia Kill
    Dawn broadcast
    Rogan Alive ??? Prophecy, wrong results


    Please check and help me fill the gaps.
    Oh, thats easy to clarify, what was wrong I mean. He gave me random abilities to hand out at first. I ahd these things I could give out but I didn't know what they could actually do. I pointed out that that was specifically againstb his rules, and he then gave me a description of each ability.

  19. - Top - End - #169
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    I meant that each of your posts gave 2/3 wolves, with you and AV being innocent. I'm thinking using both abilities at once gave each others names somehow. And, if anything if I'm right about both of your names showing up via a "same power at once" kinda glitch thing(No I don't have any idea what the redacted wording would have to say for that to happen) then Cap being innocent and Snow being innocent only proves the theory more.
    But again I'm not married to the idea, just tossing out ideas wildly, that being said, what I am married to 100% is that it cannot just be as simple as false answers, if it were, everyone but you, AV, Taff, and goof would be non-hostile, and everyone else hostile.
    I wanna see if I'm understanding your theory correctly.

    You're proposing that when I received this answer...

    AvatarVecna, ROGAN, TAFFIMAI and SUPAGOOF are all of the players in the game with an anti-town role.
    ...that the results given are "FALSE, TRUE, AND TRUE"? And the only FALSE answer in the set is because Rogan was using the same power in the same way on the same night, and we gave each other pseudo-scry-interference? And that means that Supagoof is mafia and Taffimai is another anti-town neutral?

    This isn't a sarcastic question, I want to understand if this is what you're thinking right now.


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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Oh, and in the interest of full disclosure, I can also give someone a telegram ability. It lets them give like, one message that appears during the day.

    That and the other two I mentioned are my only remaining abilities.

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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    I think your right in who you can trust. Everyone else, including me, sadly, is not Mech cleared and should be considered a possible hostile. Obviously, I hate the idea of dying. Especially when I have both a bane, and a Roleblock left to give, but I can't argue with the application of the very logic I'm preaching. It's a solid plan. Although it does nothing to check snow, sadly. But you can do that afterwards, I suppose.
    Also it doesn't check BCH, whom I think is worth a check as well, but again, beggars can't be choosers.
    I mean, it kinda doesn't have to. The point is that if we follow this plan through without any extra deaths, then we've checked 4 of the 6 people. If we've found no scum, the remaining two must be scum. By checking 4 of them, we effectively check the last two as well. The wolves have to be somewhere. It's process of elimination. And in both my examples, town still has control of the lynch (unless the neutral sides against us).
    Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2021-10-24 at 06:53 PM.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Book Wombat View Post
    It's always AvatarVecna time.

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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I wanna see if I'm understanding your theory correctly.

    You're proposing that when I received this answer...



    ...that the results given are "FALSE, TRUE, AND TRUE"? And the only FALSE answer in the set is because Rogan was using the same power in the same way on the same night, and we gave each other pseudo-scry-interference? And that means that Supagoof is mafia and Taffimai is another anti-town neutral?

    This isn't a sarcastic question, I want to understand if this is what you're thinking right now.
    I'm....not married to that Idea. But that was what I was proposing at the time yes.

    My theory NOW though(which I stated after this one), is that it was False, False, True. Taff and Rogan are cleared, Goof is Mafia. Under the assumption that you only get one correct answer when you have multiple answers from one question. If you think about it, it keeps Rogans power useful but not OP. If he just asks true/false's, he would then always get correct answers, but trying the ultimate question would, according to this theory, only give him one Mafia Name.
    Last edited by moonfly7; 2021-10-24 at 07:00 PM.

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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    Oh, and in the interest of full disclosure, I can also give someone a telegram ability. It lets them give like, one message that appears during the day.

    That and the other two I mentioned are my only remaining abilities.
    Hm, what's the priority of your gift? I mean, when do you hand them out? Slow seems to be the most likely?
    Spoiler: I'm a seer
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    Quote Originally Posted by Unavenger View Post
    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    I mean, it kinda doesn't have to. The point is that if we follow this plan through without any extra deaths, then we've checked 4 of the 6 people. If we've found no scum, the remaining two must be scum. By checking 4 of them, we effectively check the last two as well. The wolves have to be somewhere. It's process of elimination. And in both my examples, town still has control of the lynch (unless the neutral sides against us).
    Oh I absolutely agree it doesn't have to, I was just saying. I think it's an absolutely solid plan, and I think we might as well go with it unless someone has a better idea. Kinda wish I wasn't the one targeted by my own stupid gifted ability, but, if it wins us the game it wins us the game.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Rogan View Post
    Hm, what's the priority of your gift? I mean, when do you hand them out? Slow seems to be the most likely?
    Wait, no I just checked! It doesn't matter if I die! I have fast priority! Ok, this makes it much better to kill me at night. Although, admittedly I could hand out all of my useful abilities if you waited one more night to kill me. But I doubt that will happen.

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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Unfortunately I have a headache and haven't been able to focus on this. Some random thoughts:

    Quote Originally Posted by Metastachydium View Post
    I was confident Rogan will be baned. I knew you weren't. I just trusted my bluff to work. (You might notice that the term I used was unlikely, rather than impossible).\
    Quote Originally Posted by Metastachydium View Post
    The Goof was instructed to bane you.
    And you were confident that Goof was town and would actually bane Rogan? When most people were suspicious of him?
    Makes me suspect Meta but probably we'd be better off checking them via kill colour. moonfly, have you confirmed with Unavenger that the kill will show Meta's kill colour and not yours?

    I agree that Rogan's power is more likely to be entirely false answers rather than partly false answers since the former is actually useful, unlike the latter.

    I'm also becoming paranoid about Snow. Especially since I know gac's RAC quote wasn't from me. Still not paranoid enough to actually vote her, though.

    I can't blame people for being suspicious of me (I'd be suspicious of me at this point if I didn't know I was town, if only by POE) but if anyone wants to daykill me please let me know so I can claim first. It won't be super helpful to town but it'll at least answer a couple questions you'll likely have after my flip.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    I'm....not married to that Idea. But that was what I was proposing at the time yes.

    My theory NOW though(which I stated after this one), is that it was False, False, True. Taff and Rogan are cleared, Goof is Mafia. Under the assumption that you only get one correct answer when you have multiple answers from one question. If you think about it, it keeps Rogans power useful but not OP. If he just asks true/false's, he would then always get correct answers, but trying the ultimate question would, according to this theory, only give him one Mafia Name.
    Hmm okay that's plausible. Although AV's illegal QT does seem like good reason to townread Goof.
    (Kinda feel bad using an illegal move to get a read on Goof but I can't un-know it now.)
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by moonfly7 View Post
    I'm....not married to that Idea. But that was what I was proposing at the time yes.
    Your first theory is definitely wrong, because the "vague interference if another person uses Rogan's power on the same night" theory doesn't explain why the first question was wrong too. If the N2 question was correct except for the AV answer (which was false due to interference), then the answer the first night should've been correct (since there was no interference). Except...the first question was if all the mafia members were in a group of 8 players. Of those 8, 2 are mech-cleared (blade/taff), one is basically cleared (me), and of the remaining 5, 4 of them are dead townies. The first night's question is only correct if the only remaining scum player is Supagoof. This requires that the game started with two mafia and half a serial killer, which...no. Not even with all these extra kill powers.

    My theory NOW though(which I stated after this oneO, is that it was False, False, True. Taff and Rogan are cleared, Goof is Mafia. Under the assumption that you only get one correct answer when you have multiple answers from one question. If you think about it, it keeps Rogans power useful but not OP. If he just asks true/false's, he would then always get correct answers, but trying the ultimate question would, according to this theory, only give him one Mafia Name.
    This theory is also false because rogan's N1 question was, in fact, a true/false question (namely, "does this list contain all mafia members"). For your theory to be correct, the wording on the redacted part of his power would have to be incredibly precise such that if he asks a binary yes/no question about a list of people, he will receive a 'yes' if there's one 'yes' person in the list, even if there's a 'yes' person outside the list.

    Occam's razor. Sure, it's entirely possible that the way Rogan's power is actually worded is some strange legalese that prevents him from ever gaining more information than a normal seer (on top of the limitation that he's only able to answer questions that other people asked in-thread). Or...Rogan's two limitations are 1) he's limited to answering questions asked in-thread, and 2) he receives only false answers. When he asked "are all mafia in this list", the answer was no, so he was told "yes". When he asked for the names of all anti-town roles, he received three names of people who are not anti-town roles. He didn't receive the names of every non-anti-town role in the game because that wouldn't look plausible and would ruin the point of lying to him about it, so he only got some of the names. That's it, no big mystery.

    That, on top of snow confirming goof's targeting, and on top of goof trying to keep me from accidentally suiciding by copying his bane, is why I'm not going to be convinced to lynch our baner unless a seer stands up and fingers him. If all you have is supposition that maybe Rogan's redacted power is written in a way where Supagoof is the only guilty person in either list, but no actual proof, all that's doing is making me more suspicious of you trying to get us to lynch our baner.


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  27. - Top - End - #177
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    That, on top of snow confirming goof's targeting, and on top of goof trying to keep me from accidentally suiciding by copying his bane, is why I'm not going to be convinced to lynch our baner unless a seer stands up and fingers him. If all you have is supposition that maybe Rogan's redacted power is written in a way where Supagoof is the only guilty person in either list, but no actual proof, all that's doing is making me more suspicious of you trying to get us to lynch our baner.
    That was me confirming goof's targeting. But yeah, I agree.
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  28. - Top - End - #178
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Hmm okay that's plausible. Although AV's illegal QT does seem like good reason to townread Goof.
    (Kinda feel bad using an illegal move to get a read on Goof but I can't un-know it now.)
    FWIW, I no longer have access to the QT, and the telling-off occurred via PMs, and I told Unavenger about it basically immediately. But yeah, it's kinda hard to un-know. >.<

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    That was me confirming goof's targeting. But yeah, I agree.
    Whoops! My apologies. I'm subconsciously giving snow credit she doesn't deserve, that probably means we should execute her.


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    It's always AvatarVecna time.

  29. - Top - End - #179
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by Elenna View Post
    Unfortunately I have a headache and haven't been able to focus on this. Some random thoughts:

    I'm also becoming paranoid about Snow. Especially since I know gac's RAC quote wasn't from me. Still not paranoid enough to actually vote her, though.

    I can't blame people for being suspicious of me (I'd be suspicious of me at this point if I didn't know I was town, if only by POE) but if anyone wants to daykill me please let me know so I can claim first. It won't be super helpful to town but it'll at least answer a couple questions you'll likely have after my flip.
    I hope your head will stop hurting soon.

    Who might have been addressed by the RAC quote again? AV was playing, but not as spy? Snow and Elenna? Who else?

    No need to fully claim just yet, but you said you were tracking Goof, right?
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    All the discussion of how weird the half-hour start is seems weirdly prescient, in retrospect.
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    Can I use my prediction of the half an hour being used to set up Factional chats as proof I am the Seer?
    Quote Originally Posted by rogue_alchemist View Post
    only IRL, not as in game proof, as we all know that recruitment threads don't count for making IG decisions


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  30. - Top - End - #180
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    Default Re: Upick 2 Thread 2: Revenge of the Upick

    Quote Originally Posted by AvatarVecna View Post
    Your first theory is definitely wrong, because the "vague interference if another person uses Rogan's power on the same night" theory doesn't explain why the first question was wrong too. If the N2 question was correct except for the AV answer (which was false due to interference), then the answer the first night should've been correct (since there was no interference). Except...the first question was if all the mafia members were in a group of 8 players. Of those 8, 2 are mech-cleared (blade/taff), one is basically cleared (me), and of the remaining 5, 4 of them are dead townies. The first night's question is only correct if the only remaining scum player is Supagoof. This requires that the game started with two mafia and half a serial killer, which...no. Not even with all these extra kill powers.



    This theory is also false because rogan's N1 question was, in fact, a true/false question (namely, "does this list contain all mafia members"). For your theory to be correct, the wording on the redacted part of his power would have to be incredibly precise such that if he asks a binary yes/no question about a list of people, he will receive a 'yes' if there's one 'yes' person in the list, even if there's a 'yes' person outside the list.

    Occam's razor. Sure, it's entirely possible that the way Rogan's power is actually worded is some strange legalese that prevents him from ever gaining more information than a normal seer (on top of the limitation that he's only able to answer questions that other people asked in-thread). Or...Rogan's two limitations are 1) he's limited to answering questions asked in-thread, and 2) he receives only false answers. When he asked "are all mafia in this list", the answer was no, so he was told "yes". When he asked for the names of all anti-town roles, he received three names of people who are not anti-town roles. He didn't receive the names of every non-anti-town role in the game because that wouldn't look plausible and would ruin the point of lying to him about it, so he only got some of the names. That's it, no big mystery.

    That, on top of snow confirming goof's targeting, and on top of goof trying to keep me from accidentally suiciding by copying his bane, is why I'm not going to be convinced to lynch our baner unless a seer stands up and fingers him. If all you have is supposition that maybe Rogan's redacted power is written in a way where Supagoof is the only guilty person in either list, but no actual proof, all that's doing is making me more suspicious of you trying to get us to lynch our baner.
    Quite frankly, I don't put near as much weight to goof at all. I'm not really for or against his death, it just happens to be the vote I think is the best option right now, until Snow gets a response up. Vote how you wish, I don't care which way you swing nor do I care enough about the Goof wagon to try to argue you around to it. All I'm going to say is that you should stick to the plan you came up with. It's solid, I can get off a new Bane gift even, if you want it. And also, if Meta is telling the truth we have a much more solid baner than goof out here, though I'm not sure on Meta's loyalties either.
    And if you wanna lynch someone other than goof on the first day for the plan, be my guest. So long as it isn't Metaschydium and me, since you aren't getting the double check if you do.

    As for my theories, your right and I hadn't thought about that. Ah well, they were still just spitballs. I still don't think the power works the way we've said it does. But I suppose it doesn't matter, and is a waste of energy to discuss. All that matters is that it's wrong in some way and can't be trusted.

    - - - Updated - - -

    Also once again, it is still possible Elena is lying about seeing Goofs work. Just saying it, we've had peopkle suspicious of both and now the only one coroborating Goofs story is her. But that could just be a coincidence, and I am still wearing my Tin Hat.
    Last edited by moonfly7; 2021-10-24 at 07:14 PM.

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