OOTS #1247 - The Discussion Thread

[Oromin]

What is the definition you're using? I'm thinking of minerals such as halite, selenite, limestone, and iceland spar, which I wouldn't consider ceramics by the common (i.e. non-technical) use of the word.

Bear in mind that class was 6 years ago and ceramics are probably the hardest of the 3 main material groups to define, but...

I'm going to go with "A solid substance possessing short range order defined by ionic and/or covalent bonds."

I realize that's very broad and includes a number of very reactive substances, but I was trying to be really general without getting too technical. Especially since most rocks are silicates anyway.

[Carl]

I completely agree that she doesn't think Xykon doesn't want to destroy the gate. She basically says that, so we don't need to argue about that.

Your remaining point is that a later group of adventurers who seeks to displace him would be less likely to destroy the gate in the conflict than the order would. I see no reason for that assumption. If anything a later group would be more likely because they wouldn't know how dangerous the gate is it - just as likely they would see the gate as the source of Xykon's power so seek to deliberately destroy it.

But that's if Xykon doesn't destroy it straight away. While I agree with you that Xykon does not want the gate destroyed, any attempt to use the Snarl to control the world (as Xykon plans to do) will end in its release. Now Serini doesn't know that, but it seems obvious that that must at least be a risk.



No, Serini doesn't ask the paladins any questions about Xykon or about what he knows about the gate. Now that you mention that does seem silly of her - she could have questioned the paladins without giving away any more of her own secrets than she chose to anyway. I have a hard time believing that she didn't even see a chance that some people who had actually fought Xykon before might have some useful information about him.



Her goal obviously isn't to turn the gate over to Xykon. She clearly thinks that not attacking him directly is the lowest danger to the gate - and that is where I think she is wrong, for the reasons given in my previous post.



No I don't think you have covered this adequately at all.

How do you think she imagines that Xykon would use the Snarl to take over the world? What possible way could Xykon harness the most powerful primal force in the universe without risking it getting free? It should be obvious to her that there is at least a risk. As much as Xykon genuinely doesn't want to release the snarl and destroy the world, any fiddling with the gate or Snarl by him is super risky.

As for future adventurers, as I mentioned above, they would probably be higher risk of destroying the gate than the Order. At least the Order knows that they should target Xykon and not the gate. A future group might simply go straight for destroying the gate and ignore Xykon, given that it would be the source of his power.



How does that suggest that she thinks Xykon can be stopped? So Serini thinks that O-Chul trying to stop Xykon would mean he does things that he think necessary, but Serini would rather he didn't do. I don;t get how that relates to Serini's confidence in her defences.

Serini pretty much confirms she thinks that her defences will fail when she says 'existing was nice' when she kidnapped the paladins. Take that together with her spending a whole page talking about how Xykon winning wouldn't be so bad in a relative sense, and not sparing a single speech bubble to mention her defences, and I find it hard to believe she thinks her defences will prevail.



Yeah, the whole 'double standards' argument seems to revolve around pointing out that the Order sometimes does annoying/smug/evil/stupid (or whatever) things too. But I think just about everyone knows the Order sometimes does bad or stupid things. There's only a double standard if people are saying Serini is doing wrong, but denying that the Order does.

1. The gate is completely usless to Xykon unless he makes sure everyone knows about it and exactly how dangerous it is. She probably also doesn't expect him to stay at the north pole after he wins. It would kind of defeat the whole point of ruling the world. Why go to all that trouble if your not going to get to enjoy it.

2. Again she probably assumes she knows the answers. I doubt she's done all this without some investigating of what he's upto, she's probably just got bad info there somehow, (if i had to guess she was able to scry on them at Dorukan's place for a while before Xykon worked out cloister and overheard bits and pieces), but thats just one of the risks. She probably doesn't think the paladins do know anything more. Remember their oaths forbid them from searching that stuff out and i suspect she has a better grasp of paladins thank Girriad did.

3. Erm he isn't going to break the gate in his attempt to take over the world with it, that would defeat the whole point of capturing it. Remember Serreni clearly doesn't have perfect knowledge, she likely doesn't know he might do it out of sheer boredem for the fun of it. It's not like it's consistent with his actions vis a vis the gate to date. And no matter what happens there's a risk to the gate. She can't, (short of a plan to beat Xykon without him getting anywhere near the gate, which she clearly doesn't think is workable), guarantee absolutely nothing bad will happen. But she cna arrange matters to make it as likely as possible nothing will happen and/or make it so that world survives longer with her interference before the gate gets broken than it would without.

As the order themselves have discussed a few times, there are no guarantees in any of this, all any of them can do is come up with and execute the plan that has the best odds of success for their respective goals.

The fact that Dorukan put a self-destruct button on his Gate suggests that it's a valid concern, one that the paladins also considered a possibility. The entire theory hinges on the fact that the Gates diffuse its power and thus make it potentially controllable by mortals. And it doesn't even have to be that complicated, being able to point it at something that isn't you is an immensely powerful weapon. If I open a portal above your head that leads to an active volcano, I'm not doing much controlling but you'll be dead either way. Xykon himself thinks that he won't need that much control over it to use it for world domination during SoD.



He literally said that he might do it if he gets really bored.

Um no the gates have zero to do with making it potentially possibble to control the snarl. They don;t (directly interact with it at all. They're just plugs in the holes of it's prison, (or prison bars in it's windows if you prefer). All they need to do vis a vis the snarl itself is resist it's attacks, and divine magic can do that (to a limited extent), so it's within reason a set of mortals could construct somthing on par with a divine spellcaster in the mix and physical objects from their world that are creations of multiple gods.

Also she never said she's against stopping Xykon at all. She specifically notes she let them take a whole bunch of shots, (at least 2 we know of), whilst she watched, but now it's for all the marbles she's not willing to risk anything happening to the gate either deliberately or accidentally, (if she was able to scry on the trial for example she'd know that Durokons gate was destroyed entirely by accident). She even admits that the world under Xykon probably isn't going to be the nicest place, (though the fact she thinks it might be better for some monster races strongly suggests strongly she doesn't realise how much his alliance with Redcloak is a thing of connivance rather than a partnership). She not generally speaking in favor of him running the world. But if thats the lowest risk option it's the one she'll go with.

She's not perfect and even if she somehow survived this, (she clearly doesn't think he will), she isn't going to be around forever, she can't guarantee the gate will be 100% perfectly safe in perpetuity. But she can do what she can now to try to minimise the risks to it. That doesn't mean she cna make all risks go away, even in the short term.

Are you seriously, (bearing in mind hr lack of knowledge about the godsmoot), saying that Xykon getting into a big climactic fight with the Order and the paladins, winning, taking over the world and getting knocked off later doesn't represent a bigger risk than Xykon winning without a fight, taking over the world, and getting knocked off later? Seriously? Because those are the only ways it's going to play out in her mind, she's made that clear.

[Metastachydium]

1. The gate is completely usless to Xykon unless he makes sure everyone knows about it and exactly how dangerous it is. She probably also doesn't expect him to stay at the north pole after he wins. It would kind of defeat the whole point of ruling the world. Why go to all that trouble if your not going to get to enjoy it.

Nope. The Gate is completely useless to Xykon unless he can demonstrate that it isn't. He thinks the Ritual lets him control the Snarl and demonstrating that would mean unleashing the Snarl and erasing chunks of the world from existence forever at least once or twice assuming no one ever resists him after that.

[Liquor Box]

It doesn't. The conversation suggests almost nothing at all about Serini's confidence in her defences.

Ok, I thought you meant that passage you quoted hinted that she was confident in her defences. But now I think that you were just saying it supported your view that the entire discussion with the paladins was in the context a hypothetical. Is that right?

What were the reasons again to think Serini thinks she has no chance to protect the gate from Xykon? IIRC, that inference was just being made from:

• Team Evil is still in Monster Hollow
• Serini doesn't tout her chances when conversing with the paladins
• Reading the conversation with the paladins as an explicit admission she thinks there's no chance

From me, that's not quite it. First, I'm not saying she thinks she has no chance. I just think she thinks he will probably penetrate her defences, so her plan isn't just to rely on her defences but to allow him to take the gate when and if they fail.

The reasons I think she has little confidence in her defences:

• Serini's comment in 1189 that existing "was fun while it lasted" which doesn't suggest she thinks her defences will protect the gate.
• Serini spends an entire conversation (39 speech bubbles from her) talking about why she doesn't want to let the paladins attack Xykon. In all that conversation, she never says "I've got this covered" which strikes me as the strongest point she had if it were true, and the obvious thing to say if it were true. It's not an explicit admission, but I think it's odd that she didn't mention that she is confident in her defences if she was.

To counter those two points, I don't think we have seen any evidence which suggests she is confident in her defences.

Yeah. You can both have a plan and still be pessimistic about its chances, even if you think it's your best option.

Being realistic is not the same as being defeatist. Thinking the world could end soon when this is the last gate and all the other 4 have been destroyed, is not defeatism, is just not being blind fool. She could have the best plan in the world and still think that.

But if she was defeatist, she wouldn't be doing anything.

Agree with both of these. I think that Serini has more than one contingency plan. But she is pessimistic about the chances of her primary plan of her defences holding. She is not being a blind fool, but instead being realistic that her defences will probably fall.

I don't think anyone is criticising Serini for being a defeatist. I think people are just saying that her pessimistic/realistic attitude suggests that she is aware of the reality that he defences probably wont hold. It's to her credit that she realises that.

[Carl]

Nope. The Gate is completely useless to Xykon unless he can demonstrate that it isn't. He thinks the Ritual lets him control the Snarl and demonstrating that would mean unleashing the Snarl and erasing chunks of the world from existence forever at least once or twice assuming no one ever resists him after that.

We know he can't re-seal it, Serreni knows it too or he'd have stuck around at Lirrians gate originally. If he can actually let it out and the bottle it back up he doesn't need to find an intact gate, any rift will do. Your point is an actual issue with his actual plan, (as he thinks it is). Most likely he was relying on either the gods or the sapphire guard coming out and going "yeah that would be super bad", though now he can just throw some random people into the rift in gobbotopia as a way to show what will happen if he breaks it. hell even if he'd captured Lirrian's gate it was a huge complication as it would make the gate effectively a one shot weapon, thats no good to Xykon's goal.

Point is if he can't re-seal it he's got to have a way to make his threat work that doesn't involve opening it up. Or his whole plan doesn't work, and Serreni can work that out. She might have her own idea about what it is, but the reality is she doesn't need to know what it is, just know that it's a core assumption of making his plan work.

[danielxcutter]

The theory is that you can control the Snarl, not just smash the Gate as a one-shot weapon that destroys the world. The Gates are restraining bolts that let mortals control the Snarl in that scenario, not the lid on the snake jar.

[Carl]

The theory is that you can control the Snarl, not just smash the Gate as a one-shot weapon that destroys the world. The Gates are restraining bolts that let mortals control the Snarl in that scenario, not the lid on the snake jar.

That's your theory, it's not backed up by anything on page, nor would it make sense. How is somthing made by mortals, (who are themselves at best a 3 quiddity thing), supposed to control somthing that multiple gods with 3 quidditties combined between them can't. The gates where created as plugs, nothing more nothing less, thats their sole purpose.

[danielxcutter]

That’s the premise that the entire bloody comic has been running on for the last four books, so yeah that’s what people probably thought? And if Xykon taking control over the Gate would result in the Snarl getting loose, why the hell would Serini be letting him?

[Liquor Box]

1. The gate is completely usless to Xykon unless he makes sure everyone knows about it and exactly how dangerous it is. She probably also doesn't expect him to stay at the north pole after he wins. It would kind of defeat the whole point of ruling the world. Why go to all that trouble if your not going to get to enjoy it.

3. Erm he isn't going to break the gate in his attempt to take over the world with it, that would defeat the whole point of capturing it. Remember Serreni clearly doesn't have perfect knowledge, she likely doesn't know he might do it out of sheer boredem for the fun of it. It's not like it's consistent with his actions vis a vis the gate to date. And no matter what happens there's a risk to the gate.

I don't think we are understanding each other very well on these two points. I have no idea what you mean when you say that the gate is useless to Xykon unless everyone knows about it. What exactly do you think (or do you think Serini might predict) that Xykon do with the gate if he got it. How do you think he would use it to rule the world.

I think the most obvious methods for him to use it would be to try and control the Snarl through some sort of magic (perhaps like binding a demon) - releasing it on those who oppose him. I don't think he wants to destroy the gate, I think he wants to open it. So two points, the first about Xykon accidently destroying the gate himself, and the second about another group targeting him and destroyign the gate on purpose or in the conflict.

• I think this approach is inherently risky. It is risky when casters do it to less powerful beings. So even if Xykon doesn't want to destroy the gate or release the Snarl, I think Serini should foresee that there would be a high risk of him doing so by accident.
• In my view this approach makes the gate a target if Xykon is there or not. A lot harder if he is there, because they'd have to overcome one of the powerful characters in the universe to destroy his gate.

But happy for you to set out what you think Serini sees Xykon as doing when he gets the gate, and we could discuss that.

She can't, (short of a plan to beat Xykon without him getting anywhere near the gate, which she clearly doesn't think is workable), guarantee absolutely nothing bad will happen. But she cna arrange matters to make it as likely as possible nothing will happen and/or make it so that world survives longer with her interference before the gate gets broken than it would without.

You are right, she can't guarantee that nothing bad will happen, so she should either try and arrange things to reduce the chances of something bad happening, or stay out of it. Instead she is interfering in a way that makes the destruction of the world more likely.

You have yourself identified the best way to protect that gate - to take your best shot at him before he gets to the gate, which is exactly what the Order wants to do. If they win, then mission accomplished and the immediate threat to the gate is removed. If they lose (as she seems to expect), then she's back to square one - her defences are probably intact, and if they fall Xykon will likely seize the gate.

2. Again she probably assumes she knows the answers. I doubt she's done all this without some investigating of what he's upto, she's probably just got bad info there somehow, (if i had to guess she was able to scry on them at Dorukan's place for a while before Xykon worked out cloister and overheard bits and pieces), but thats just one of the risks. She probably doesn't think the paladins do know anything more. Remember their oaths forbid them from searching that stuff out and i suspect she has a better grasp of paladins thank Girriad did.

I feel like I'm being drawn into a strand of the argument that I am not particularly invested in here.

But I think you have outlined the criticism of her in the bolded sentences - she assumes she has all the answers. She doesn't, and she's being silly to assume she does when she could have asked people who might have additional knowledge with no risk.

[Carl]

That’s the premise that the entire bloody comic has been running on for the last four books, so yeah that’s what people probably thought? And if Xykon taking control over the Gate would result in the Snarl getting loose, why the hell would Serini be letting him?

Um no it hasn't. The entire point has been for Xykon to seize a gate. He then believes it can be used in some way to take over the world, now i will admit having double checked my copy of SoD Xykon at least initially believed the gates could be used to control the snarl, but it dosen't follow that Serreni knows thats his goal (though see my pint below about what serreni knows).

I don't think we are understanding each other very well on these two points. I have no idea what you mean when you say that the gate is useless to Xykon unless everyone knows about it. What exactly do you think (or do you think Serini might predict) that Xykon do with the gate if he got it. How do you think he would use it to rule the world.

I think the most obvious methods for him to use it would be to try and control the Snarl through some sort of magic (perhaps like binding a demon) - releasing it on those who oppose him. I don't think he wants to destroy the gate, I think he wants to open it. So two points, the first about Xykon accidently destroying the gate himself, and the second about another group targeting him and destroyign the gate on purpose or in the conflict.

• I think this approach is inherently risky. It is risky when casters do it to less powerful beings. So even if Xykon doesn't want to destroy the gate or release the Snarl, I think Serini should foresee that there would be a high risk of him doing so by accident.
• In my view this approach makes the gate a target if Xykon is there or not. A lot harder if he is there, because they'd have to overcome one of the powerful characters in the universe to destroy his gate.

But happy for you to set out what you think Serini sees Xykon as doing when he gets the gate, and we could discuss that.


You are right, she can't guarantee that nothing bad will happen, so she should either try and arrange things to reduce the chances of something bad happening, or stay out of it. Instead she is interfering in a way that makes the destruction of the world more likely.

You have yourself identified the best way to protect that gate - to take your best shot at him before he gets to the gate, which is exactly what the Order wants to do. If they win, then mission accomplished and the immediate threat to the gate is removed. If they lose (as she seems to expect), then she's back to square one - her defences are probably intact, and if they fall Xykon will likely seize the gate.

Serreni is a scribbler. She knows enough about the snarl to know it can't be controlled. Also if all he anted to do was try to throw a basic mind whammy on it he doesn't need the gate for that. rememebr any thinking she's doing and interpreting on info she's getting is going to be made in the context of what she knows about the gates and the snarls. Which at this point is certainly more than anyone else alive. Yes she may be missing the info on the world in the rifts, (and that is a maybe). But beyond that in terms of info about the gates she certainly knows as much as anyone else alive, and possibly more than they do.

Remember she thinks Xykon is going to win no matter what anyone currently in play does. So unless she's confident he is in fact going to get the world blown up opposing him only increases the risk whilst not opposing him has no effect on the risk.

But I think you have outlined the criticism of her in the bolded sentences - she assumes she has all the answers. She doesn't, and she's being silly to assume she does when she could have asked people who might have additional knowledge with no risk.

There's at least two risks i can see:

1. She reveals her presence and if she can't talk them down that means they could decide to attack her right then and there if they realise she won't help. She's a rouge, Haley had a whole sequence in Greysky about how rouges are not a solo stand up fight class. Thats a situation that results in her being taken out. That derails any ability on her part to control the risks around the fight with Xykon. It's the same reason/s Roy didn't want Durkon to talk to Redcloak as a first move.

2. She's a high level rouge but she's not infallible, they could flat out lie to her. And if they're opposed strongly enough to letting Xykon win, (and she acknowledges they might be), she can't afford to risk them convincing ehr to do somting via those lies that creates a bigger danger.

And all of that assumes they could in fact know anything thats relevant to her decision making. We have no evidence either way that she has any reason to think they do.


Let me try to run through all the logic for you that i think Serreni is following. Anything that i consider speculation on my parts i'll bracket and do in italics.


1. She's done her assessment of Xykons power vs The Order + Paladins and dosen't think they have a hope. She states this outright. (This may be absed on the MitD however, he's the wild card, but i don't think anyone can blame her for getting that wrong. He is following around and seemingly helping Xykon).

2. That means any attempt to stop him just increases the risks to the gate. She clearly is unaware of the godsmoot as she doesn't think Xykon getting the gate = automatic world destruction.

3. She knows a great deal about the gates, the snarl, she clearly watched at least Soon's gate blow up. (She may also have seen other events in the Azure City Throne room, and may have knowledge of events at Girriad's gate). That means she has a fair source of info to figure out what he could do, (my assumption has been she knows he can't control the snarl).

4. Both because of events around Soon's gate being blown up and the fact that he moved on after Lirian's gate got toasted she has no reason to believe a broken seal is of any use to him, regardless of whatever details she may or may not know of his plans. That means if he gets the gate it's not guaranteed to go horribly wrong. Also see point one. If it is going to go horribly wrong in Xykon's hands, (i don't think she thinks it will, but she's probably thought this step through anyway), thats going to happen whatever she does.

5. She has access to a wide variety of info and is dealing with a group of heroes who she can't rule out from being willing to attack her to get her out of the way and who depending on her assessment of their objectives may be willing to lie to her. She could try to find out if they do know something she doesn't. But she's got to balance the risks with doing that against the risks of them being able to screw things up. Unless she's really sure they have somthing or really sure they can't mess it up it's not worth the risk. So far there's been no indication she has reason to believe they know anything she doesn't. (And there's only two things they might know that she doesn't, the planet in the rifts, and the godsmoot, and thats only happening because of the dark ones plan, and no one but a few goblins, and the gods knew that till Durkon found out from Thor.) Thats why i called the orders extra knowledge "Unknown, Unknowns" earlier, she not only doesn't know the information, she doesn't know she doesn't know, she has no reason to believe such unknown information is even out there to know. There's a reason in both real life and fiction Unknown, unknowns tends to get people hard.

[Seward]

Rocks are principally composite mixtures of mineral species. And all minerals are ceramic materials by the definition I learned. (Unless you wanted to call native metal a mineral I guess). I feel like calling a ceramic/ceramic composite a ceramic is fair? At least when discussing chemical properties? Certainly I wouldn't just call the bulk of the mass inclusions.

I tended to work with corundum, which, with impurities, is the crystal structure of a lot of gemstones and is both extremely hard and extremely resistant to chemicals. That's a ceramic (Alumina). Most other things we classify as ceramics have similar properties, if not as durable as corundum in most cases (lightweight, high heat tolerance and hardness, low chemical reactivity)

When I think of the word "rock" that includes everything from sedimentary structures like limestone or sandstone which are basically composites of small bits of stuff compacted, some of which is organic, som mineral (not so much as earth, but similar), ignious rocks like Granite or Basalt - these vary in reactivity ranging from something like Obsidian, a glass-like structure which isn't very reactive at all, to something like Rhyolite, which reacts to a lot of stuff but rate varies based on things like temperature (eg in hot spring) or age (older rhyolite is more vulnerable than younger) and metamorphic, like slate (reactive if exposed to water+air+heat, not so much if underground) or marble (not very reactive).

Basically...a lot of rocks are reactive under various conditions, sometimes any condition. A lot aren't. It depends on molecular structure. In nature ceramic structures like alumina tend to be inclusions in the same way metallic structures like iron tend to be inclusions. Not always. You sometimes get a rare large crystal, but usually it's smaller embedded in other stuff.

All that said though, I agree that the fact the rock is likely to be dirty (and dirt is largely organic) is a better explanation for the fizzing in the comic strip than speculating that it is a rock that is chemically active with that particular substance. On average, a dry rock at room temperature isn't that reactive. OTOH, as others have pointed out, the presence of stalactites might indicate sedimentary rocks and certainly indicates some moisture...so YYMV.

(of course the actual reason is Rich thought it would look cool if it fizzed...)

[Ruck]

Don't strawman me, Ruck. It's unbecoming. Serini has every reason not to trust the Order and I said that much quite a number of times. She deserves being punched in the face for being a bloody hypocrite and being smug about that.

Well, "hypocrite" is a new charge, so you'll have to explain that one to me. "Smug," again, I haven't been convinced and I don't think anyone's really tried. (Other than calling her attitude "unearned," which as I already outlined seems preposterous to me.) At worst I see "sarcastic old lady."

I think too much has been made of the "everything will be fine later" part of the argument. It's not actually an essential component of her decision.

Serini seems to think there are 3 options.

1). Stop Xykon
2). Xykon wins
3). Destroy the gate

She doesn't believe the first one is possible and prefers the second one to the third one. She doesn't think teaming up with the Order and the paladins makes option 1 more likely. She is concerned that they might pick option 3 to avoid option 2.

If option one is off the table because it can't be done then she may as well take option 3 off the table so it can't be done either.

Yeah, I think this is a pretty succinct summary. Which is why I don't get when people say Serini is being "irrational"-- based on what she knows, there is a pretty clear and logical throughline to her decision-making process, as outlined by this post.

I think Peelee or Carl has said more or less anything else I was going to say.

[Liquor Box]

Serreni is a scribbler. She knows enough about the snarl to know it can't be controlled. Also if all he anted to do was try to throw a basic mind whammy on it he doesn't need the gate for that. rememebr any thinking she's doing and interpreting on info she's getting is going to be made in the context of what she knows about the gates and the snarls. Which at this point is certainly more than anyone else alive. Yes she may be missing the info on the world in the rifts, (and that is a maybe). But beyond that in terms of info about the gates she certainly knows as much as anyone else alive, and possibly more than they do.

Remember she thinks Xykon is going to win no matter what anyone currently in play does. So unless she's confident he is in fact going to get the world blown up opposing him only increases the risk whilst not opposing him has no effect on the risk.

Serini obviously does think that Xykon will use the Snarl to rule the world. So I'll ask again, how would Serini think that Xykon intends to do that.

There's at least two risks i can see:

1. She reveals her presence and if she can't talk them down that means they could decide to attack her right then and there if they realise she won't help. She's a rouge, Haley had a whole sequence in Greysky about how rouges are not a solo stand up fight class. Thats a situation that results in her being taken out. That derails any ability on her part to control the risks around the fight with Xykon. It's the same reason/s Roy didn't want Durkon to talk to Redcloak as a first move.

2. She's a high level rouge but she's not infallible, they could flat out lie to her. And if they're opposed strongly enough to letting Xykon win, (and she acknowledges they might be), she can't afford to risk them convincing ehr to do somting via those lies that creates a bigger danger.

And all of that assumes they could in fact know anything thats relevant to her decision making. We have no evidence either way that she has any reason to think they do.

1. The paladins are already aware of her presence, so she could have questioned them.

2. It wouldn't be hard to test if they are lying by asking them questions that she already knows the answer to.

3. She doesn't have to know that the have useful information. She only has to know that it's possible. And that is obvious.

Let me try to run through all the logic for you that i think Serreni is following. Anything that i consider speculation on my parts i'll bracket and do in italics.


1. She's done her assessment of Xykons power vs The Order + Paladins and dosen't think they have a hope. She states this outright. (This may be absed on the MitD however, he's the wild card, but i don't think anyone can blame her for getting that wrong. He is following around and seemingly helping Xykon).

Well she only says it about the paladins, but let's presume she meant the order as well.

We can blame her for getting it wrong. If she can see what's happened at the gates she'd know that the Order has already defeated Xykon at one, and the paladins almost did at another. She also underestimated the Order in her attempt to ambush them - despite being really unlucky with their save rolls, the Order overcame her.

2. That means any attempt to stop him just increases the risks to the gate. She clearly is unaware of the godsmoot as she doesn't think Xykon getting the gate = automatic world destruction.

Nope. They try and fail and it doesn't increase the risk to the gate. They try and succeed and it solves the problem.

3. She knows a great deal about the gates, the snarl, she clearly watched at least Soon's gate blow up. (She may also have seen other events in the Azure City Throne room, and may have knowledge of events at Girriad's gate). That means she has a fair source of info to figure out what he could do, (my assumption has been she knows he can't control the snarl).

If she knows he can't control the Snarl then the risk is even greater.. Because it means when he tries to control it he will fail and it will get loose.

4. Both because of events around Soon's gate being blown up and the fact that he moved on after Lirian's gate got toasted she has no reason to believe a broken seal is of any use to him, regardless of whatever details she may or may not know of his plans. That means if he gets the gate it's not guaranteed to go horribly wrong. Also see point one. If it is going to go horribly wrong in Xykon's hands, (i don't think she thinks it will, but she's probably thought this step through anyway), thats going to happen whatever she does.

I think I said three posts ago that I agree Xykon doesn't intend to destroy the gate. The risk isn't that he deliberately destroys the gate, it's that he tries to control the snarl (or something similar) and ends up releasing it.

I think too much has been made of the "everything will be fine later" part of the argument. It's not actually an essential component of her decision.

Serini seems to think there are 3 options.

1). Stop Xykon
2). Xykon wins
3). Destroy the gate

She doesn't believe the first one is possible and prefers the second one to the third one. She doesn't think teaming up with the Order and the paladins makes option 1 more likely. She is concerned that they might pick option 3 to avoid option 2.

If option one is off the table because it can't be done then she may as well take option 3 off the table so it can't be done either.

So one of the essential elements of her decision is thinking option one is not possible. You are right, if the Order had zero chance of success there's little point them attacking Xykon. But what basis does she have to think they have zero chance of defeating Xykon?

I don't think it's a strong defence of her decision to say "well she assumed X", when X is unsupported, and in fact contrary to the evidence that she may have (them defeating Xykon at Dorukan's gate).

[Hurkyl]

To remark on something a few comments have brushed against... hasn't The Giant explained that it's literally impossible to use the gates to open up rifts elsewhere on the Prime Material Plane?

Of course, if that's true we don't know whether Serini is aware of that. But we don't she doesn't either. shrug.

[danielxcutter]

Serini says she thinks letting Xykon rule the world is preferable to it being destroyed. Shojo said that the Guard suspects that the Gates might actually diffuse the energy of the Snarl enough for it to be controllable. Xykon himself thinks that even if he can't control it much, he'd only need to use it once or twice for it to work. Dorukan put a self-destruction rune on his Gate. We know the Ritual is capable of manipulating the Gates to a sufficient degree that TDO can move it. I don't see how "mortals can't do anything with the Snarl because it's OP" makes any sense.

Xykon doesn't need to be able to make the Snarl dance the can-can and whistle One-Winged Angel to take over the world. He just needs to, say, open a portal that lets the Snarl reach out and can be closed quickly enough for there still be a world to rule afterwards.

[Hurkyl]

We know the Ritual is capable of manipulating the Gates to a sufficient degree that TDO can move it.

To create a path to the outer planes, yes, but just that. Or something like that; I don't remember the exact scope, just that, as I recall, Giant was making a point that it couldn't be used to direct the Snarl elsewhere on the Prime Material.

[Oromin]

So one of the essential elements of her decision is thinking option one is not possible. You are right, if the Order had zero chance of success there's little point them attacking Xykon. But what basis does she have to think they have zero chance of defeating Xykon?

I don't think it's a strong defence of her decision to say "well she assumed X", when X is unsupported, and in fact contrary to the evidence that she may have (them defeating Xykon at Dorukan's gate).

I don't think it's unsupported. How well it's supported depends on what exactly she knows. It could be as simple as "All 3 of the gates you were defending (I don't count Lirian's) are now destroyed. Good job." to as complex as "You can't replicate the circumstances at Dorukan's Gate and failed to destroy Xykon outright anyway. You were largely ineffectual at the battle for Azure City. You are personally responsible for killing the Draketooth's and were forced to destroy the gate before Xykon even showed up."

I mean, if she actually knew everything familicide alone would be enough to refuse to work with them.

For what it's worth she probably does have a good handle on what Team Evil is capable of. They've been dungeon diving in her backyard for over a week.

[danielxcutter]

To create a path to the outer planes, yes, but just that. Or something like that; I don't remember the exact scope, just that, as I recall, Giant was making a point that it couldn't be used to direct the Snarl elsewhere on the Prime Material.

With the Ritual. Even if such a thing really is impossible, the only thing that matters here is that both Xykon and Serini think so.

[Hurkyl]

It could be as simple as "All 3 of the gates you were defending (I don't count Lirian's) are now destroyed. Good job."

I do wonder at that point how much "you" refers to Soon's legacy specifically, versus broadly referring to all of the Scribblers.

Recall that the whole reason the other Scribblers broke up, at least, as the story is handed down to us through the Sapphire Guard, was that they each believed their respective specialties were the only way to keep the gates safe and were about to come to blows over it before Serini defused the situation by suggesting they each take one for themselves to defend as they saw fit.

[Metastachydium]

We know he can't re-seal it, Serreni knows it too or he'd have stuck around at Lirrians gate originally. If he can actually let it out and the bottle it back up he doesn't need to find an intact gate, any rift will do. Your point is an actual issue with his actual plan, (as he thinks it is). Most likely he was relying on either the gods or the sapphire guard coming out and going "yeah that would be super bad", though now he can just throw some random people into the rift in gobbotopia as a way to show what will happen if he breaks it. hell even if he'd captured Lirrian's gate it was a huge complication as it would make the gate effectively a one shot weapon, thats no good to Xykon's goal.

Point is if he can't re-seal it he's got to have a way to make his threat work that doesn't involve opening it up. Or his whole plan doesn't work, and Serreni can work that out. She might have her own idea about what it is, but the reality is she doesn't need to know what it is, just know that it's a core assumption of making his plan work.

Nope again. Read SoD. Xykon thinks the Ritual allows him to control the Snarl. If Serini believes he can get to rule the world through capturing the Gate, she must believe that he's capable of doing that too. Otherwise the Gate would not help Xykon at all.

Well, "hypocrite" is a new charge, so you'll have to explain that one to me.

Serini pontificates about how she's the only one who's not a danger to the Gate(s), when her idiotic negligence (an alternative spelling of The Life and Times of Serini Toormuck, Halfling Rogue) is at least indirectly responsible for the destruction of all Gates thus far and certainly caused Dorukan's death.
Serini certainly has a place and function in the story and an important one at that: she's the ultimate catalyst of the plot. If she was not carrying around the location of the Gates as if there were no tomorrow, Team Evil never finds them and the Order (who were looking for Xykon, not the Gates) never stumbles upon them, but that doesn't make what she did less dumb.

"Smug," again, I haven't been convinced and I don't think anyone's really tried. (Other than calling her attitude "unearned," which as I already outlined seems preposterous to me.) At worst I see "sarcastic old lady.

If you have the impression that what essentially boils down to "you are all stupid children; stand still while the fantastic Auntie Serini easily dispatches you" is not smugness, I don't know what is. But you do you.

[Ruck]

Serini pontificates about how she's the only one who's not a danger to the Gate(s), when her idiotic negligence (an alternative spelling of The Life and Times of Serini Toormuck, Halfling Rogue) is at least indirectly responsible for the destruction of all Gates thus far and certainly caused Dorukan's death.
Serini certainly has a place and function in the story and an important one at that: she's the ultimate catalyst of the plot. If she was not carrying around the location of the Gates as if there were no tomorrow, Team Evil never finds them and the Order (who were looking for Xykon, not the Gates) never stumbles upon them, but that doesn't make what she did less dumb.

This one is more complicated than it appears, in part because we're missing an important piece of information: How did Xykon find out Serini's diary had the information he was looking for? Who's responsible for that?

In her defense, although I'm mixed on it myself, the locations of the Gates probably couldn't be entirely lost to history just in case they needed to be repaired, and the code the locations were written in was only decipherable by working backwards from a known location. I'm not sure how readily foreseeable it was that someone would have an interest in the gates, would find out the location of the gates were kept in her diary, would be powerful enough to ambush her and straight-up take it, and would also be capable of decoding it.

I'm still not sure her actions and outlook are hypocritical, given the circumstances and actions taken were so different-- and specific to keeping gates standing, she has done her job; the Order and the paladins didn't do theirs.

In any case, I don't see what it would change if this was hypocritical or if she acknowledged that. "You screwed up, I screwed up, so let's work together"? I don't think that would make a lot of sense from her point of view, or rationally speaking. It might make sense on some morality-play level, but it doesn't strike me as a decision based in the character's motivations and goals. If anything, "I made a mistake and put the gates at risk; I'm not going to take any more chances" makes a lot more sense.

If you have the impression that what essentially boils down to "you are all stupid children; stand still while the fantastic Auntie Serini easily dispatches you" is not smugness, I don't know what is. But you do you.

I have the impression you are essentially boiling down Serini to that, indeed. I think that is more likely the source of our disagreement.

I do wonder at that point how much "you" refers to Soon's legacy specifically, versus broadly referring to all of the Scribblers.

Recall that the whole reason the other Scribblers broke up, at least, as the story is handed down to us through the Sapphire Guard, was that they each believed their respective specialties were the only way to keep the gates safe and were about to come to blows over it before Serini defused the situation by suggesting they each take one for themselves to defend as they saw fit.

It's a reason we got in the retelling, but from even the portion of the story we know, it's probably not the whole reason-- it seems like Kraagor's death set whatever simmering tensions existed among the Scribble to boiling.

[Liquor Box]

I don't think it's unsupported. How well it's supported depends on what exactly she knows. It could be as simple as "All 3 of the gates you were defending (I don't count Lirian's) are now destroyed. Good job." to as complex as "You can't replicate the circumstances at Dorukan's Gate and failed to destroy Xykon outright anyway. You were largely ineffectual at the battle for Azure City. You are personally responsible for killing the Draketooth's and were forced to destroy the gate before Xykon even showed up."

I mean, if she actually knew everything familicide alone would be enough to refuse to work with them.

For what it's worth she probably does have a good handle on what Team Evil is capable of. They've been dungeon diving in her backyard for over a week.

None of the things you mentioned support a conclusion that the Order winning is not possible. Your mielage may vary on whether it would support a conclusion that the winning is not probable, but not that it is not possible that they would win.

To address the four specific points you make:

First, you point out that the Order are 0/3 in defending gates. That's true, although it's not really indicative of their ability to defeat Xykon, instead twice they destroyed gates in circumstances that aren't really replicated here. But if Serini just knew about those outcomes being 0/3 might suggest that them winning is improbable, but it does not support a conclusion that it's impossible. Indeed, a toss of a coin is 50/50, but it's not unusual to get three tails in a row.

Second, you point out that the Order killing Xykon at Dorukan's gate was in circumstances that can't be replicated here. At best their defeat of Xykon proves they can defeat him. At worst it doesn't prove anything either way. It certainly doesn't support a conclusion that it's not possible for them to defeat him.

Third you mention familicide. Although she might side-eye them for casting that spell, it certainly doesn't prove they can't defeat Xykon. If anything, that they can cast a spell that could defeat such powerful foes as the ancient black dragon, and Draketooth (who is epic level) suggests they would be able to defeat another epic character like Xykon.

Fourth, you point out that she probably knows what team evil is capable of. That may be true, but she certainly doesn't think they are unbeatable, because she thinks some future adventurers might defeat him (in the future when he'll be even more powerful). And we can see from the current fight that she doesn't know much about the Order - she was surprised by Hayley's quick thinking, she referred to them by their race (she called V 'the elf') rather than by name, she thought Hayley was leader, and she was surprised by Hayley's evasion skill. Indeed, at one point she hints that she knows them only from their constant sendings. Even if she has observed them before there's nothing that indicates she knows them well enough to say they don't have a chance against Xykon.


Again, the trouble is that for the chain of logic you laid out to work, them winning would have to be not possible. If it was merely the case that the result was doubt, then it would be worth giving them a shot. But for Serini to conclude it was not possible, she'd have to know something we don't.

[danielxcutter]

There was no real reason for her to write the coordinates in her diary and then carry them around with her. She could just have left that at home and used a Greater Teleport scroll to get back if she needed it in a hurry.

[Liquor Box]

There was no real reason for her to write the coordinates in her diary and then carry them around with her. She could just have left that at home and used a Greater Teleport scroll to get back if she needed it in a hurry.

Or not write them down. How hard is it to remember a a few double digit numbers. It's no different from remembering your street number, or your phone number.

I think that Serini is just as responsible for the destruction of Soon's gate as O-Chul is. Neither destroyed the gate, but both arguable made a poor decision for understandable reasons which contributed to its destruction.

[danielxcutter]

I don't think O-Chul really factored much into the destruction of the Gate after Soon and the ghost-martyrs came close to destroying Xykon for good. If he hadn't been right in front of the throne, Miko probably would have taken a weapon from another one of the paladins and used that.

[Hurkyl]

I don't think O-Chul really factored much into the destruction of the Gate after Soon and the ghost-martyrs came close to destroying Xykon for good. If he hadn't been right in front of the throne, Miko probably would have taken a weapon from another one of the paladins and used that.

It's not about the weapon, it's about getting the idea to destroy the sapphire in the first place. That whole scene reads to me like "The gods have given me a chance to finish what O-Chul started", rather than coming to the idea on her own.

[Oromin]

None of the things you mentioned support a conclusion that the Order winning is not possible. Your mielage may vary on whether it would support a conclusion that the winning is not probable, but not that it is not possible that they would win.

You and I are going to have to agree to disagree then. It's logically impossible to prove a negative so that just doesn't seem like a reasonable standard to me.

Or not write them down. How hard is it to remember a a few double digit numbers. It's no different from remembering your street number, or your phone number

The gates have to be defended forever. Serini isn't immortal. Oral history gets garbled over generations. As far as the Scribblers knew there would still need to be gate guardians a thousand years from now.

[danielxcutter]

It's not about the weapon, it's about getting the idea to destroy the sapphire in the first place. That whole scene reads to me like "The gods have given me a chance to finish what O-Chul started", rather than coming to the idea on her own.

Why is that on O-Chul specifically? The Guard as a whole, maybe, but I didn't get the impression that only O-Chul thought of that.

[Hurkyl]

Why is that on O-Chul specifically?

Because he's frozen in the act of destroying the sapphire.

And this reading -- that she's seeing a cue to action rather than a cue to think up something on her own -- is strengthened by the way Miko has been looking for signs from the Twelve Gods about what she should do.

[Liquor Box]

You and I are going to have to agree to disagree then. It's logically impossible to prove a negative so that just doesn't seem like a reasonable standard to me.

Well it was you who set the standard of it not being possible, not me. I don't think we require proof here either, just a good reason to believe it's not possible - at the moment we are not even close to that. But happy to agree to disagree.

The gates have to be defended forever. Serini isn't immortal. Oral history gets garbled over generations. As far as the Scribblers knew there would still need to be gate guardians a thousand years from now.

i've never heard of an oral tradition about the location of a place becoming garbled, except for maybe handreds years after the significance of that place ended.