Afterlife 2

[AvatarVecna]

Recruitment thread

Player List:

1. Book Wombat
2. CaoimhinTheCape
3. flame12
4. gac3
5. Libro
6. moonfly7
7. Saint-Just
8. Snowblaze
9. Supagoof
10. Taffimai

Backup:

1. EmmyNecromancer
2. Rogan

Don't post until I declare D1 has started.

[AvatarVecna]

If you did not receive a PM, you are a vanillager. If you are on village team, you win when all scum are eliminated, as normal.

Day 1 Ends In ~72 Hours

[Book Wombat]

Number nine, the Supagoof!

[moonfly7]

Well, it is always AvatarVecna time.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Well, let's start off with a vote for gac3

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Vote Count
Supagoof (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): moonfly7
gac3 (1): CaoimhinTheCape
Not Voting: flame12, gac3, Libro, Saint-Just, Snowblaze, Supagoof, Taffimai

[Taffimai]

Taffimai, in honour of our delightful host, and because I'm not a survivor this game WOOP WOOP WOOP!

[gac3]

I want to vote Taff for the self vote but is that worth a wagon? I mean... Probably not yet... flame12 what say you

[Saint-Just]

If you did not receive a PM, you are a vanillager.

Well, that's just lazy. It's AvatarVecna time then.

(Ok, I'll make a normal vote, I promise. Later. Maybe. Probably).

[Snowblaze]

Slow start to the game... gac3 for a wagon that's not the narrator.

[flame12]

Slow start to the game... gac3 for a wagon that's not the narrator.

I feel like I might look suspicious throwing my vote back at gac3, but I agree with your reasoning, so doing it anyways.

[Taffimai]

I agree that the right time to lynch the narrator is when the game hasn't ended after flipping three wolves or six villagers, but we need a second wagon that isn't Gac (and I think Flame is new?) so I'll try Supagoof to see how that takes off.

And to get some conversation going: what does everybody think the bastard mechanic is going to be this game? Before AV told us that we're not using QuickTopics I thought it would be a lone wolf because the "you can see wolf chat but not post in it" mechanic can't be done in Discord afaik. Right now I'm leaning towards "there are no wolves, you're all villagers" but that needs some sort of night voting mechanic because I don't think AV would do the very thing Rogan suggested in the recruitment thread (too obvious).

[Snowblaze]

Do I detect the influence of my speculation in UPick wolfchat?

Seriously: I've given basically no thought to what the bastard mechanic could be. There's way too many possibilities and it'll probably become clear after a few flips.

Also why do you think there are three wolves?

Having analysed flame's post to death I haven't reached any kind of satisfactory conclusion other than that gac isn't their partner.

- - - Updated - - -

If they're a wolf, obviously.

[Saint-Just]

Also why do you think there are three wolves?

My thoughts as someone who likes to analyze in explicit terms everything but who has no experience with PbP Mafia (though I have read a lot of games on this forum and two outside of it in preparation):

Reasonable worst-case scenario. Planning for three werewolves when there are two will result in loss of efficiency and some heightened paranoia which is going to lose some fraction M of all games with only two werewolves above and beyond what would be lost in games planning for two, yet planning for two werewolves when there are three will result in much higher fraction N lost. The precise answer on whether it is better to consider higher or lower number from the beginning depends not only on ratio M to N but also on ratio of high-wolf games to low-wolf games; yet in this case I think probability of three wolves is not so low as not to be considered.

[Snowblaze]

Yeah, I can see that and largely agree with it (yay, more overanalysis buddies!). I was more curious about why Taffimai assumed there were three wolves because I thought there was a slight chance of her knowing that there were three wolves because she was one of them, so I thought I'd poke it and see if anything happened.

[Taffimai]

Do I detect the influence of my speculation in UPick wolfchat?

Actually I couldn't remember exactly where I read it, but I did read that wolfchat so yes, probably.

Also why do you think there are three wolves?

I don't, I was talking about the edge cases where I'd want to lynch the narrator. I don't think there are four wolves, so if we lynch three and the game doesn't end, something's up. Similarly, I don't think there are less than two (although technically a serial killer game would be possible, but in my experience you very rarely win 1 v 9 anyway so that wouldn't be very challenging), therefore if we see six people flip as villagers without lynching a single wolf (which would mean 2 v 2 left) and the game still hasn't ended, I'd be more inclined to suspect AV than that there'd be only a single wolf.

So in short, the correct AvatarVecna time is Day 4.

[Saint-Just]

I was more curious about why Taffimai assumed there were three wolves because I thought there was a slight chance of her knowing that there were three wolves because she was one of them, so I thought I'd poke it and see if anything happened.

Sorry, I still haven't internalized how much this relies on knowing nods. I know it is a standard tactic but I wrote my post without thinking about it. I'll try to do better.

[Taffimai]

And before you ask, no, I also don't know for sure that there isn't a vig/sk to provide a second night kill or a baner/voider which would upset that Day 4 calculation, but I don't think so. "Bastard mode: I made it seem in the recruitment thread like there wouldn't be many power roles, but there are!" seems unlikely.

[moonfly7]

I'll change my vote to an actual when I feel like there's someone good to vote for. Other least halfway decent.
As for the bastard mechanic:
Maybe the wolves are all working on their own, each with their own kill ability? That would mean it's likely only 2 wolves just because even 2 possible kills a night is a lot.
Like it not though, just spitballing.

[Snowblaze]

That's fine, Saint-Just. Takes some getting used to.

Actually I do now have a guess for the bastard mechanic: there are no power roles at all, and wolves know this so can safely fakeclaim PRs.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

And to get some conversation going: what does everybody think the bastard mechanic is going to be this game? Before AV told us that we're not using QuickTopics I thought it would be a lone wolf because the "you can see wolf chat but not post in it" mechanic can't be done in Discord afaik. Right now I'm leaning towards "there are no wolves, you're all villagers" but that needs some sort of night voting mechanic because I don't think AV would do the very thing Rogan suggested in the recruitment thread (too obvious).

I don't think the game is wolfless. It seems like it would just be a matter of time before we figured that out and then we just... decide to stop? idk, I don't see AV going that route.

My thoughts as someone who likes to analyze in explicit terms everything but who has no experience with PbP Mafia (though I have read a lot of games on this forum and two outside of it in preparation):

Reasonable worst-case scenario. Planning for three werewolves when there are two will result in loss of efficiency and some heightened paranoia which is going to lose some fraction M of all games with only two werewolves above and beyond what would be lost in games planning for two, yet planning for two werewolves when there are three will result in much higher fraction N lost. The precise answer on whether it is better to consider higher or lower number from the beginning depends not only on ratio M to N but also on ratio of high-wolf games to low-wolf games; yet in this case I think probability of three wolves is not so low as not to be considered.

I was more curious about why Taffimai assumed there were three wolves because I thought there was a slight chance of her knowing that there were three wolves because she was one of them

I don't, I was talking about the edge cases where I'd want to lynch the narrator. I don't think there are four wolves, so if we lynch three and the game doesn't end, something's up. Similarly, I don't think there are less than two

So, I don't see it being 3 Wolves. If it were, that meants Day 1 is 7v3, worst case is Day 2 at 5v3 which is mislynch or lose. On Day 2? I'm not buying that.

Also Taff, you went from "I'm leaning toward there are no wolves, you're all villagers" to "I don't think there's less than two" really fast. I don't know that it's a slip but wanted to note it.

Sorry, I still haven't internalized how much this relies on knowing nods. I know it is a standard tactic but I wrote my post without thinking about it. I'll try to do better.

Any conversation is good, don't think you did anything wrong there/need to do better for what you said.

I'll change my vote to an actual when I feel like there's someone good to vote for. Other least halfway decent.
As for the bastard mechanic:
Maybe the wolves are all working on their own, each with their own kill ability? That would mean it's likely only 2 wolves just because even 2 possible kills a night is a lot.
Like it not though, just spitballing.

That was actually my idea - that there are two mafia members who either don't know each other or who can't communicate for some reason (maybe one is alive and one is dead)? I don't think there will be 2 kills at Night but I could see no communication between two mafia members, especially if QT isn't reliable.

Actually I do now have a guess for the bastard mechanic: there are no power roles at all, and wolves know this so can safely fakeclaim PRs.

I mean, that's possible? I don't see this group relying on power roles anyway, but that would be really bad if Wolves could claim and just lead around town.

---

Vote Count
Supagoof (2): Book Wombat, Taffimai
AvatarVecna (2): moonfly7, Saint-Just
gac3 (3): CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze, flame12
flame12 (1): gac3
Not Voting: Libro, Supagoof

- - - Updated - - -

And immediately after I hit submit, I thought of something else. What if Mafia can't kill at night but have powers to make up for that?

[Supagoof]

Hey, I'm actually here for the first day. I shouldn't point that out, that's not my usual behavior. Then again, this game didn't start late on a Friday, for me.

Anyway, going to start the usual suspecting of Snowblaze. Why?

Lol. Now everyone is going to know RAC as "that game Snowblaze talked about in UPick wolfchat" rather than "that game where there were spies and Xihirli betrayed everyone".

At least the legends live on, even if twisted into new forms.

Your name shall be legen...wait for it...

....dary. Legendary!

So if we lynch her now, her legend will still live on.

That's it, I got nothing else.

- - - Updated - - -

Someone who's been here awhile, catch me up and maybe help define something.

Bastard mechanic - I assume this stems from a mechanic that makes players want to scream "You Bastard!". Are there games that could be referenced or maybe a short version of the ones used we could reference?

Like, I see Moonfly pointed out a possible one with the wolves not know each other, but are there others? Or is this definition the only one?

[Book Wombat]

Bastard mechanic - I assume this stems from a mechanic that makes players want to scream "You Bastard!". Are there games that could be referenced or maybe a short version of the ones used we could reference?

Like, I see Moonfly pointed out a possible one with the wolves not know each other, but are there others? Or is this definition the only one?

The bastard mechanic last Afterlife was that the Seers didn't find out their target's role, they gained access to their QuickTopic and therefore all other QTs they had access to if I remember correctly.

[Snowblaze]

Hi Supagoof. I’ll try not to mislynch you this time.

I don’t really think “dying day one” is a great addition to my legend, though. (Also votes need to be bold in this game.)

The way I’d probably define “bastard” is “subverting our expectations of how a game usually works”. So yeah, wolves not knowing who each other are, or there not being any wolves. Since it’s come up recently, Red Atlantic Cruise contained multiple bastard mechanics. I’d probably also say “powers that don’t work or do something the user isn’t told about” but given that there aren’t many powers in this game that’s not really relevant.

[Supagoof]

Thanks. *poof* you're bolded now.

Ok, so then that makes some more sense in my head. I was curious of how Moon got to a specific bastard mechanic, but as AV specified this game only has wolf role(s), it makes a bit more sense. It makes them a bit sus on my radar still. Same for Saint Just in similar reasons. It's a just that it feels like they "know" something, y'know?

As for dying day 1, true - there are worse things, like getting run over by a steamroller. Seeing as stat wise though, I've only managed to be in the win/alive of 1 of the 4 games since I returned, I'd like try to get that stat to 2. Let some of those who've been around get booted early here.

[Snowblaze]

Well, you’re still beating my win record since I returned!

Also it took me a while to realise that you’re talking about specifically “lynch the narrator” with Moonfly and Saint-Just’s (incidentally, can I call you SJ? I think the hyphen makes me want to abbreviate your name.) guesses for the bastard mechanic.

I don’t think that’s particularly AI given the narrator is, well, AV. Though noting I have a slight wolflean on Moonfly. Give me a minute to get the quote.

- - - Updated - - -

I'll change my vote to an actual when I feel like there's someone good to vote for. Other least halfway decent.

Saying this unprompted makes me think they feel like they’re under pressure to produce content and look like they’re doing things.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Saying this unprompted makes me think they feel like they’re under pressure to produce content and look like they’re doing things.

Not sure I agree with people feeling pressured to produce content on page 1, but given that nearly everyone has posted, I'm not sure the votes on AV help all that much.

To be fair, I don't think there's much reason to vote for anyone yet. gac's "wagon" is basically because why not and no one has moved to make a counterwagon yey (unless we count the votes for Supagoof or actually want to lynch AV).

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Vote Count
Supagoof (2): Book Wombat, Taffimai
AvatarVecna (2): moonfly7, Saint-Just
gac3 (3): CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze, flame12
flame12 (1): gac3
Snowblaze (1): Supagoof
Not Voting: Libro

[Snowblaze]

Not sure I agree with people feeling pressured to produce content on page 1, but given that nearly everyone has posted, I'm not sure the votes on AV help all that much.

More internal pressure that they're putting on themselves. I do that a lot as a wolf, thinking "I can't just fluff post, I need to look like I'm solving".

But yeah,*insert disclaimer about early day one reads here*

[AvatarVecna]

More internal pressure that they're putting on themselves. I do that a lot as a wolf, thinking "I can't just fluff post, I need to look like I'm solving".

But yeah,*insert disclaimer about early day one reads here*

One of the hidden benefits of a narrator!wolf setup: a complete lack of self-pressure for the sake of appearances.

[Snowblaze]

One of the hidden benefits of a narrator!wolf setup: a complete lack of self-pressure for the sake of appearances.

Must... resist... urge... to... vote... AV...

[Supagoof]

Why do I get the distinct feeling that voting for AV is like attempting to lynch the Gazebo?