Afterlife 2

[gac3]

Hmm... According to the vote count I'm in the lead. That's fine. But there is also two other wagons near me and flame came in so why not move to one of those. AV

[Taffimai]

Time for the evening catchup!

Having analysed flame's post to death I haven't reached any kind of satisfactory conclusion other than that gac isn't their partner.

Actually I missed this the first time around, but what tells you they're not distancing (or pulling a Snowblaze like in the last game)?

Maybe the wolves are all working on their own, each with their own kill ability?

this game only has wolf role(s),

I'm taking that second quote completely out of context, but this combo is hilarious and I hope to see it sometime. Night one, BAM! half the players dead

I don't think the game is wolfless. It seems like it would just be a matter of time before we figured that out and then we just... decide to stop? idk, I don't see AV going that route.

You forget that a wolfless game is the scenario that was discussed in the recruitment thread, I just added the bit about a night-vote mechanic instead of the narrator choosing the kills. I hope you're right about AV not being likely to run it, but I didn't pull the idea out of nowhere.

Also Taff, you went from "I'm leaning toward there are no wolves, you're all villagers" to "I don't think there's less than two" really fast. I don't know that it's a slip but wanted to note it.

I think you're seeing a connection between two things that aren't related. "When should we lynch the narrator" looks at what the realistic expectations are for this game, and with ten players imo that's 2-3 wolves. "What could be the bastard mechanic" is speculation about an abnormal scenario that I nonetheless think might happen, and "no wolves" is the one I picked. It was meant more to start conversation than to state a firm opinion on the game, and well... mission accomplished!

So, I don't see it being 3 Wolves. If it were, that meants Day 1 is 7v3, worst case is Day 2 at 5v3 which is mislynch or lose. On Day 2? I'm not buying that. <snip>

That was actually my idea - that there are two mafia members who either don't know each other or who can't communicate for some reason (maybe one is alive and one is dead)? I don't think there will be 2 kills at Night but I could see no communication between two mafia members, especially if QT isn't reliable.

Actually, if you're right about the idea that the wolves don't know each other, I think three wolves is more likely, because it's harder for them to win when they can't coordinate their voting. In a way it's worse than being a serial killer, because they risk involuntarily lynching their buddies, or giving themselves away by being too scared to vote. (more below)

To be fair, I don't think there's much reason to vote for anyone yet. gac's "wagon" is basically because why not and no one has moved to make a counterwagon yey (unless we count the votes for Supagoof or actually want to lynch AV).

This is very true. On the one hand, Day 1 isn't even halfway. On the other, I think it increases the chances that you're right about the wolves not being able to communicate: if they don't know who their buddie(s) is/are, they can't try to protect them, they'll just vote for anyone who's not themselves. Which is bad news because there won't be voting patterns or odd defenses to spot or analyse. Which, in turn, is a good argument for there being only two wolves... Circular reasoning achieved!

More internal pressure that they're putting on themselves. I do that a lot as a wolf, thinking "I can't just fluff post, I need to look like I'm solving".

Actually I think that if several people speak out against voting for the narrator, and you're one of the people voting for the narrator, you might feel compelled to respond in some way. I know I don't have to explain to Gac what I meant by voting for myself in tribute to the host, but if one of the newer players had commented, I'd have gone looking for the oldest quote I could find. This is the game where people analyse your every typo for hidden motives, after all.

Why do I get the distinct feeling that voting for AV is like attempting to lynch the Gazebo?

More like casting magic missile on the darkness

Tomorrow we're leaving on holiday, and I'm going to spend most of the day driving, then unpacking and improvising dinner. I'll see you all in ~20 hours or so!

[Snowblaze]

Hmm... According to the vote count I'm in the lead. That's fine. But there is also two other wagons near me and flame came in so why not move to one of those. AV

...why are you voting for the narrator over the actual player?

- - - Updated - - -

Like. Do you actually think that lynching the narrator is a pro-town move? And if so... why?

Also @Taffimai
- flame is new so I imagine they wouldn't want to bus in their first ever post
- it's kind of like the reasoning I used to clear Meta last game after the Caoimhin flip (yes, I know I was a wolf last game. Doesn't mean I wasn't using valid reasoning to clear people.) "I know this is going to make me look suspicious" isn't something people typically say when bussing a partner.

[flame12]

...why are you voting for the narrator over the actual player?

- - - Updated - - -

Like. Do you actually think that lynching the narrator is a pro-town move? And if so... why?

Also @Taffimai
- flame is new so I imagine they wouldn't want to bus in their first ever post
- it's kind of like the reasoning I used to clear Meta last game after the Caoimhin flip (yes, I know I was a wolf last game. Doesn't mean I wasn't using valid reasoning to clear people.) "I know this is going to make me look suspicious" isn't something people typically say when bussing a partner.

I'd also like to know the reason for all the early attempts to target our narrator? And yeah first pbp Ww/mafia game. As for the looking suspicious comment, most of my irl group who play this have a tendency as wolves to simply flip accusations back on people, which i realized I was doing as I was typing last time.

[Saint-Just]

@Snowblaze

I accept any unambiguous in the context alterations of my nick, including SJ

@Taffimai and everyone

Regarding the possibility of uncoordinated wolves: I read somewhere about an option where wolves must vote blindly and only if they have some sort of majority they can kill successfully; also included the option where unsuccessful attacks (wolf votes which failed to reach majority) were reported providing more info to both sides

[gac3]

...why are you voting for the narrator over the actual player?

- - - Updated - - -

Like. Do you actually think that lynching the narrator is a pro-town move? And if so... why?

Also @Taffimai
- flame is new so I imagine they wouldn't want to bus in their first ever post
- it's kind of like the reasoning I used to clear Meta last game after the Caoimhin flip (yes, I know I was a wolf last game. Doesn't mean I wasn't using valid reasoning to clear people.) "I know this is going to make me look suspicious" isn't something people typically say when bussing a partner.

I mean... It only puts us at a tie but I'm more curious about trying to lynch the narrator to see what happens out of curiosity than lynching someone who seems to only be a wagon so that I wouldn't be the only one.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm also not overly concerned specifically with keeping myself alive at the moment? Like I'm not saying I want to die but I'd be as fine a mislynch as any. It would be better to get a wolf but I don't have any overt wolf suspicions yet.

[Snowblaze]

What will happen if we lynch AV is that we'll get some snarky flavour text and no information that gets us any closer to killing wolves tomorrow. And do bear in mind that if there are three wolves tomorrow is MyLo. (Hopefully there aren't, but we have to consider it.) oh right, not killing anyone means there's nine alive day two so it's 6-3.

Lynching you or Supagoof will at least give us useful information even if you flip town.

- - - Updated - - -

So what I'm getting is that you're making a self-preservation vote... on the narrator... while claiming that you're not interested in self-preservation... and you just want to see what happens if we lynch AV.

That thought process makes No Sense.

But I don't know how to read you, and you're not the kind of person whose thought processes I can typically easily understand.

I'm willing to vote Moonfly with you, if you like. Then we have a wagon with an actual reason, if you call my point an actual reason.

[moonfly7]

I'd also like to know the reason for all the early attempts to target our narrator? And yeah first pbp Ww/mafia game. As for the looking suspicious comment, most of my irl group who play this have a tendency as wolves to simply flip accusations back on people, which i realized I was doing as I was typing last time.

What will happen if we lynch AV is that we'll get some snarky flavour text and no information that gets us any closer to killing wolves tomorrow. And do bear in mind that if there are three wolves tomorrow is MyLo. (Hopefully there aren't, but we have to consider it.) oh right, not killing anyone means there's nine alive day two so it's 6-3.

Lynching you or Supagoof will at least give us useful information even if you flip town.

- - - Updated - - -

So what I'm getting is that you're making a self-preservation vote... on the narrator... while claiming that you're not interested in self-preservation... and you just want to see what happens if we lynch AV.

That thought process makes No Sense.

But I don't know how to read you, and you're not the kind of person whose thought processes I can typically easily understand.

I'm willing to vote Moonfly with you, if you like. Then we have a wagon with an actual reason, if you call my point an actual reason.

My AV vote is purely a joke, based on the running "it's always avatarvecna time" joke that gets tossed around. And the only reason I pointed out that it was a joke at first was because the moment a second person voted for it, I knew somebody was gonna start taking the joke as an attempt to distract from progress. And as before, my actual vote is going in when I get some evidence for reads.

[Snowblaze]

My AV vote is purely a joke, based on the running "it's always avatarvecna time" joke that gets tossed around. And the only reason I pointed out that it was a joke at first was because the moment a second person voted for it, I knew somebody was gonna start taking the joke as an attempt to distract from progress. And as before, my actual vote is going in when I get some evidence for reads.

What do you make of gac3's AV vote and explanation?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I think you're seeing a connection between two things that aren't related. "When should we lynch the narrator" looks at what the realistic expectations are for this game, and with ten players imo that's 2-3 wolves. "What could be the bastard mechanic" is speculation about an abnormal scenario that I nonetheless think might happen, and "no wolves" is the one I picked. It was meant more to start conversation than to state a firm opinion on the game, and well... mission accomplished!

OK, I can see that explanation.

I'd also like to know the reason for all the early attempts to target our narrator? And yeah first pbp Ww/mafia game.

There was the possibility that the narrator is in the game (the bastard rule that was mentioned), mostly joked about in the recruitment thread. It's possible, but I don't think that is the case.

---

Vote Count
Supagoof (2): Book Wombat, Taffimai
AvatarVecna (3): moonfly7, Saint-Just, gac3
gac3 (3): CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze, flame12
Snowblaze (1): Supagoof
Not Voting: Libro

[moonfly7]

What do you make of gac3's AV vote and explanation?

I mean, I don't like it. I have this feeling that the bastard mechanic is going to be something that deals with us and not the narrator. But that's just my gut, but I do trust it. It was right last time and I ignored it, so I'm going with it this time. That being said, I don't have any real feelings about what gac said.
The only thing I can say about it is that I don't like the idea of wasting a lynch, day 1 Lynch's are seldom accurate but often provide info even if we kill a towny. If we actually lynch the narrator, I firmly believe nothing will happen and we will lose that day 1 info. Then day 2 will start and all we'll have to go on is whatever night 1 brings.
Oh and No Vote for now.

- - - Updated - - -

If nothing else catches my eye I might drop a vote on Gac3 just because I didn't like that explanation, but other than that I'm going to wait on any hard voting.

[Saint-Just]

Ok, I am making a serious vote now.

Supagoof

I have no real reads on players themselves, but if I try to analyze which wagon has the higher probability of being pushed by the (organized) wolves - presuming they are organized - I say that gac3's wagon seems more like it. Votes on Supagoof seem less pushy. That doesn't mean that I read gac3 as a wolf. Finally if neither wagon is wolf-led (because wolves can't organize or because they purposefully stand aside) then Supagoof is still no less likely (and no more) than gac3.

[gac3]

What will happen if we lynch AV is that we'll get some snarky flavour text and no information that gets us any closer to killing wolves tomorrow. And do bear in mind that if there are three wolves tomorrow is MyLo. (Hopefully there aren't, but we have to consider it.) oh right, not killing anyone means there's nine alive day two so it's 6-3.

Lynching you or Supagoof will at least give us useful information even if you flip town.

- - - Updated - - -

So what I'm getting is that you're making a self-preservation vote... on the narrator... while claiming that you're not interested in self-preservation... and you just want to see what happens if we lynch AV.

That thought process makes No Sense.

But I don't know how to read you, and you're not the kind of person whose thought processes I can typically easily understand.

I'm willing to vote Moonfly with you, if you like. Then we have a wagon with an actual reason, if you call my point an actual reason.

I am a mystery I guess. The tendency for people to not understand my logic makes me super curious/excited about the next time I get to be a wolf. To see if it benefits me there, where it usually gets me in trouble as town. We will have to see when the time comes.

But sure. Moonfly seems better than SupaGoof.

[moonfly7]

Eh, might as well vote Gac3. He's the only person im suspicious of, and he did just vote me kinda out of nowhere.

[gac3]

Eh, might as well vote Gac3. He's the only person im suspicious of, and he did just vote me kinda out of nowhere.

I wouldn't say out of nowhere? But fair. I voted you because Snow had more valid suspicions of you than I have seen anyone show of SupaGoof.

[Snowblaze]

Eh, gac basically voted for you because I asked them to.

Speaking of which, I should put my vote where my mouth is on moonfly7.

And I'm going to be busy IRL this weekend, but I should be able to at least check in before EOD if chaos happens.

[moonfly7]

Eh, gac basically voted for you because I asked them to.

Speaking of which, I should put my vote where my mouth is on moonfly7.

And I'm going to be busy IRL this weekend, but I should be able to at least check in before EOD if chaos happens.

Fair enough then. It's got as much evidence as any other day 1 vote. Although I do believe that your whole point was that I responded like a wolf worried I wasn't contributing, but I do that as Town!Moon, so it's really not the best grounds for a wagon.

But then again, neither is anything else we have this day one so *shrug* watcha gonna do?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Just checking in before deadline (2.5 hours I believe). Still no thoughts. I don't see smoking guns, but the recent votes are interesting.

Moonfly moves to no vote, with the quote.

The only thing I can say about it is that I don't like the idea of wasting a lynch, day 1 Lynch's are seldom accurate but often provide info even if we kill a towny. If we actually lynch the narrator, I firmly believe nothing will happen and we will lose that day 1 info. Then day 2 will start and all we'll have to go on is whatever night 1 brings.
Oh and No Vote for now.

- - - Updated - - -

If nothing else catches my eye I might drop a vote on Gac3 just because I didn't like that explanation, but other than that I'm going to wait on any hard voting.

Saying he doesn't want to waste the lynch but also moving to vote no one. I don't like the AV vote but it gives more information than a No Lynch, since we find out if the Narrator is involved at all. The gac3 vote might happen, but we are close to deadline.

Saint-Just moves to Supagoof, tying it as the leading wagon. Ties are random this game, so this has an impact if things stayed gac/supagoof.

gac3 votes moonfly when a vote on Supagoof would fly so that gac is saved. gac really doesn't seem to care about dying, which has been obvious through most of the day and makes me want to lean town or confident wolf.

Moonfly goes to gac3 as promised. If he didn't, I would have found it suspect.

Snowblaze goes to moon, again as expected.

---

I'll only be on mobile, in case I need to move my vote, but I kinda want to stay on gac to keep it at a tie. I'm curious to see if there are any last minute saves, or if there's a last minute switch.

Wish Libro was around to give an opinion, or to see if Supagoof comes back to place a vote down where it'll impact stuff (though Supagoof isn't often around on weekends).

---

Vote Count
Supagoof (3): Book Wombat, Taffimai, Saint-Just
gac3 (3): CaoimhinTheCape, flame12, moonfly7
Snowblaze (1): Supagoof
moonfly7 (2): gac3, Snowblaze
Not Voting: Libro

[Taffimai]

Spoiler: Vote History (tell me if I missed one like last time)

Show

Wombat			Supagoof 1
Moonfly			AV 1
Caoimhin		Gac 1
Taffimai		Taffimai 1
Gac			Flame 1
Saint			AV 2
Snow			Gac 2
Flame			Gac 3
Taffimai		Supagoof 2		Taffimai 0
Supagoof		Snowblaze
Gac			AV 3			Flame 0
Moonfly 		No Vote			AV 2
Saint			Supagoof 3		AV 1
Gac			Moonfly 1		AV 0
Moonfly			Gac 4
Snow			Moonfly 2		Gac 3

There were no posts yesterday (or today) that I particularly wanted to reply to, so I decided to try my hand at one of those reads lists I've seen others do. I'd welcome feedback if you think my reasoning is faulty.

Spoiler: Suspicions

Show

I've grouped people based on how willing I am to vote for them, so this is not a "most to least suspicion" ranking.

Book Wombat
Reasons they might be a wolf	Last game Wombat joked around a lot and had one of the highest posting rates, and was told that it looked like someone really excited to play a wolf (and he ended up being a serial killer). Now his behaviour is the exact opposite, which could be deliberate.
Reasons why they might be town	Low activity alone does not a wolf tell make.
Do I want to vote them?	Not today, but tomorrow or Day 3, definitely.
Libro
Reasons they might be a wolf	An experienced player who has been away for a while, might be laying low (haven't gone back to check whether Libro is also one of those "I'm never around on Day 1" types).
Reasons why they might be town	I got the impression from the recruitment thread that they were still debating whether or not to sign up, so might not know they're supposed to be here, especially since villagers didn't get a PM this game (not a fan of that, btw).
Do I want to vote them?	As Wombat, but as they might autolynch and we'll then get Emmy or Rogan, I'm fine with waiting a bit longer.
Saint-Just
Reasons they might be a wolf	None yet, but I haven't really looked too closely because new player.
Reasons why they might be town	Active, responsive, makes good points.
Do I want to vote them?	Not anytime soon (even if they weren't new)
Flame
Reasons they might be a wolf	Only two posts, lampshaded OMGUS
Reasons why they might be town	Both posts looked perfectly normal to me.
Do I want to vote them?	Not anytime soon (even if they weren't new)
Snowblaze
Reasons they might be a wolf	The interaction with Gac to vote Moonfly together looked like something they might have discussed in advance. People like to say that "Snow always looks town, even as a wolf", but for me it's more the other way around that Snow has an air of calculated indecision even when town.
Reasons why they might be town	Very vocal about suspicions which helps to draw others' attention to them. Interacts a lot, definitely not trying to lay low.
Do I want to vote them?	Not atm. I'd vote off someone inactive before someone useful who looks mildly wolfish unless it's LyLo.
Caomhin
Reasons they might be a wolf	Seems to be trying a bit too hard to find something, anything suspicious. Wolves do this in order to drive the attention towards townies. His interactions with me gave me the distinct impression that had Gac and Caoimhin been wolf-buddies, I'd have been his pick for a counter-wagon and the only reason I'm not is that they're not.
Reasons why they might be town	Trying to find wolves is what a townie is supposed to do, and sussing them for that and no other reason is weak. Also, being open about your suspicions allows people to respond, which prevents mislynches and promotes conversation.
Do I want to vote them?	See Snow. I'm also fairly sure that Snow and Caoimhin are not wolves together, their posts are too similar in style yet uncoordinated.
Gac
Reasons they might be a wolf	I want to vote Taff for the self vote but is that worth a wagon? I mean... Probably not yet... flame12 what say you "I want to vote you but I don't want to be the one to start a wagon, I'll just try to get an inexperienced player to do it for me so I can safely join it later without getting blamed when you flip town"
Reasons why they might be town	Hmm... According to the vote count I'm in the lead. That's fine. But there is also two other wagons near me and flame came in so why not move to one of those. AV This very much gave me the impression of someone who's not really paying attention, only looked at the vote count and the picked "the other wagon" while forgetting that AV is the narrator. I'd expect a wolf to be more on the ball than that and to avoid the attention that voting newbie then narrator inevitably attracts.
Do I want to vote them?	Yes, why not. However the main reason he looks wolf to me is very similar to the bogus one Snow gave for voting Caoimhin last time, and as I said then I think it's flimsy.
Moonfly
Reasons they might be a wolf	Wanting to wait with a vote till others have shown their hand is shifty, and shows they might want to be able to pick between wagons in case one of them is a buddy. A wolf would get annoyed for attracting attention with something they think is innocuous (like Caoimhin last time).
Reasons why they might be town	Their posts came off more annoyed than anything else to me, sort of "Everybody else is random/joke voting, why are you picking on me?" and moreso when their promise to vote properly later failed to appease Snow.
Do I want to vote them?	Also yes.
Supagoof
Reasons they might be a wolf	As he said, posting Day 1 is atypical behaviour. I've got nothing better.
Reasons why they might be town	It's atypical behaviour I'd like to encourage, posts look perfectly normal.
Do I want to vote them?	When I voted for Supagoof it was because I wanted to create a second wagon (and the one for Gac was also started randomly). Now that I am voting for him, I'm only going to change that for a reason. If Moonfly gets another vote I'll push one of them up to four.

Sorry for the **** table, but I don't know how to fix it and I don't have time to mess around with it.

So there you have it. All in all I think the two wagons should be Moonfly and Gac today, since they're the two players that are somewhat under suspicion, but I need some time to decide between my own leaning that out of those two, I'd rather believe Gac as a wolf than Moonfly, and Saint-Just's very good point that Gac's wagon feels more coordinated (unless the wolves are exactly Gac and Snow, but eh). In the mean time, I'm happy to leave my vote where it is because you never know, the RNG might have gotten lucky. See you later!

P.S. AV, I couldn't find anything about an auto-lynch mechanic in the recruitment thread, do we have one?
Edit: we do, that's what the alternates are for. Realised this while filling out the table, forgot to remove this line.

[Snowblaze]

As promised, checking in. Taffimai can have town points for her reads list, mostly because I want to actually have a townread. But yeah, I imagine she'd have less motivation to post that as a wolf as there's no expectation for town!her to do it.

"Calculated indecision" sounds pretty accurate as a description of my play. Though ftr I am utterly incapable of flying under the radar as any alignment. I've tried, and it ended with surviving three murder attempts in the same night and promptly being outed as SK the next day.

...though having said that, you're saying the wagons should be gac and Moonfly but you're voting for Supagoof meaning he has more votes than Moonfly and is tied with gac.

Town points retracted.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Kinda confused about your stance taff. It sounds like moonfly and gac are your top two suspects, but your vote is making it a coin flip between gac and supagoof?

If you'd rather moon over supagoof, why not move it?

[Taffimai]

Kinda confused about your stance taff. It sounds like moonfly and gac are your top two suspects, but your vote is making it a coin flip between gac and supagoof?

If you'd rather moon over supagoof, why not move it?

My top two suspects who I still would only give less than even odds of being a wolf are still not people I really want to vote for. I am in the same position as last time on Day 1, where I think we don't have any decent proof yet and are absolutely going to mislynch. If I move to Moonfly, I'm creating another 3v3 tie that's imo just as good as the current one. If I vote Gac, I'm basically deciding the lynch because 4/2/2 would require too much last minute vote shifting to change.

...actually, sure. Gac just to check whether Snow was bussing again.

[Snowblaze]

I'd like it if someone on the gac wagon could switch to Moonfly for the tie.

If not, pre-flip analysis!

If gac flips wolf I'd say Saint-Just is the only one who was actually trying to form a counter wagon (other than, you know, me) so becomes suspicious. Beyond that *shrug* I don't really know. I was kind of toying with a gac/Supagoof w/w world which would explain the reluctance to vote for an actual player counterwagon.

If gac flips town I will continue suspecting Moonfly, and possibly Taffimai as well since I think recent movements have been quite partner-y.

But... we don't have much to go on in that case and there's a decent chance I just get murdered for being the most active player.

[Saint-Just]

Gac, please answer if you can before the end of day. You can possibly help us if you are a villager

Taffimai's analysis uses this quote

Hmm... According to the vote count I'm in the lead. That's fine. But there is also two other wagons near me and flame came in so why not move to one of those. AV

to conclude you weren't paying attention and forgot that AV is the narrator this game. Is it true, or did you do that for another reason?

- - - Updated - - -

If gac flips wolf I'd say Saint-Just is the only one who was actually trying to form a counter wagon (other than, you know, me) so becomes suspicious.

I acknowledge that I should be treated as driving Supagoof wagon (or at least as finding a parade and getting out in front of it) but you have started two wagons. There are possible pro-town reasons for that but I don't like it.

[Snowblaze]

Should be sleeping but I want to see the flip, and there's stuff to reply to. Also it's now a thing that I'm posting in an Afterlife game when I should be busy or asleep.

The point isn't that you're suspicious for driving a wagon, the point is that if gac flips wolf then you're suspicious for starting a counterwagon to them. By the same logic I would be suspicious if Supagoof flipped wolf. Driving wagons is NAI (Not Alignment Indicative) until we know which alignment those wagons are and/or which alignment their counters were.

Also I'm interested in why you chose that specific thing to ask gac and how your opinion of them will change depending on the answer, but you probably don't want to talk about that until they're dead or have replied. So a note in case I forget tomorrow because I'm sleep-deprived!

[Taffimai]

I'd like it if someone on the gac wagon could switch to Moonfly for the tie.

If not, pre-flip analysis!

If gac flips wolf I'd say Saint-Just is the only one who was actually trying to form a counter wagon (other than, you know, me) so becomes suspicious. Beyond that *shrug* I don't really know. I was kind of toying with a gac/Supagoof w/w world which would explain the reluctance to vote for an actual player counterwagon.

If gac flips town I will continue suspecting Moonfly, and possibly Taffimai as well since I think recent movements have been quite partner-y.

I promise if Gac flips town I'll vote Moonfly with you tomorrow.

there's a decent chance I just get murdered for being the most active player.

This, however, is absolutely true. If Gac's a wolf, there's nothing you can do that will keep me from voting you tomorrow for suspected bussing. Someone else might try by, idk, confessing? but not you.

[Saint-Just]

The point isn't that you're suspicious for driving a wagon, the point is that if gac flips wolf then you're suspicious for starting a counterwagon to them. By the same logic I would be suspicious if Supagoof flipped wolf. Driving wagons is NAI (Not Alignment Indicative) until we know which alignment those wagons are and/or which alignment their counters were.

I get the stuff about counter-wagons, but starting multiple wagons, and especially switching away from successful one could be indicative. To put it most charitably, you made yourself hard to read on the first-order evidence regardless of gac's allegiance: you started the wagon for him but also started a counter-wagon. And that in turn makes second-order reasoning by induction harder.

Though I suppose we shouldn't start pointing fingers at specific persons before day 2.

[Snowblaze]

Since I don't have any townreads, let's talk about reasons to wolfread people.

Moonfly - that post I mentioned earlier, plus I thought their gac read was pretty hedgy.

gac - thought processes make no sense, thinking voting for the narrator is a good move.

Taffimai - weird logic around deciding her vote, in the end voting gac "to see whether I'm bussing" which feels like the kind of excuse a wolf uses when they don't have good reasons.

Saint-Just - their last post is "yeah, I did this thing but you did it too and I don't like it for reasons I'm not actually going to define even though there are understandable reasons for town to do it" (paraphrasing to make my point clearer).

Caoimhin - they've felt... kind of lacking? Like, they're posting but not actually trying to get the game moving? That thing about recent votes also felt IIOA-y.

Which I believe covers everyone except the one with no posts, the one with limited posts which aren't particularly AI, the one with two posts and the one I can't even remember *checks back* oh, Wombat, who also hasn't done anything AI.

Yay.

If I have time and energy tomorrow afternoon I'll try and work through which of those reasons have the most merit, hopefully with the benefit of additional info from the flip.

- - - Updated - - -

I get the stuff about counter-wagons, but starting multiple wagons, and especially switching away from successful one could be indicative. To put it most charitably, you made yourself hard to read on the first-order evidence regardless of gac's allegiance: you started the wagon for him but also started a counter-wagon. And that in turn makes second-order reasoning by induction harder.

Though I suppose we shouldn't start pointing fingers at specific persons before day 2.

Making myself hard to read doesn't equal being suspicious unless you're implying that my strategy as a wolf is "start multiple wagons to make myself hard to read". Which isn't something I'd ever use as a wolf strategy.

[gac3]

Gac, please answer if you can before the end of day. You can possibly help us if you are a villager

Taffimai's analysis uses this quote



to conclude you weren't paying attention and forgot that AV is the narrator this game. Is it true, or did you do that for another reason?

This is untrue. I knew AV was narrator. Again. My options for self preservation vote were AV and SupaGoof. Well I know that I am a vanilla townie. Maybe all townies are. I don't know what SupaGoof is but they haven't given me reason to think they are a wolf yet. Their wagon was based on "gac shouldn't be the only wagon". So I voted the narrator because I wasn't overly concerned with if I died because town would only lose my mind which isn't as adept as others at traditional wolf hunting and I was also curious what would happen if we killed the narrator, (probably nothing.)

[Snowblaze]

Can I get a legacy reads/thoughts list before your death?

Also I am going to sleep now. Rest in peace.