Afterlife 2

[Book Wombat]

Wombat if you read this please stay silent, I'd much rather have a substitute thanks.

Not getting rid of me that easily.
This week was really busy, maybe next week will be better.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Vote: Supagoof

Shooting multiple birds with one vote. So, a guilty Supagoof means that I'd trust BW a bit (for marking their vote on Supagoof all Day) and reinforces my Saint-Just read. Also would change my mind about Taff (leaving her vote on Supagoof longer than I expected. On that note...

Mainly though, Caoimhin. He pressured me to get off of Supagoof without trying to particularly convince me to vote Gac. It irked me at the time that apparently, a Gac-Moonfly tie was better to him than a Gac-Supagoof tie, which looks very much like a buddy-buddy thing to me.

The exchange below is what Taff referred to in her last post.

So there you have it. All in all I think the two wagons should be Moonfly and Gac today, since they're the two players that are somewhat under suspicion, but I need some time to decide between my own leaning that out of those two, I'd rather believe Gac as a wolf than Moonfly, and Saint-Just's very good point that Gac's wagon feels more coordinated (unless the wolves are exactly Gac and Snow, but eh). In the mean time, I'm happy to leave my vote where it is because you never know, the RNG might have gotten lucky. See you later!

...though having said that, you're saying the wagons should be gac and Moonfly but you're voting for Supagoof meaning he has more votes than Moonfly and is tied with gac.

Kinda confused about your stance taff. It sounds like moonfly and gac are your top two suspects, but your vote is making it a coin flip between gac and supagoof?

If you'd rather moon over supagoof, why not move it?

Your post indicated that the Gac/Moonfly wagon was better to you, while you continued to vote Supagoof. That's what I was asking about and why I pressured you to move your vote to match your words.

---

Are we gonna talk about the weird Libro kill? Cause I don't see any reason for Mafia to shoot at Libro? Is the bastard mechanic against them?

Also, Book Womabt, if you're still around, a quick readlist would be nice.

---

Vote Count
moonfly7 (1): Taffimai
Supagoof (1): CaoimhinTheCape
No Votes: Book Wombat, Saint-Just, flame12, moonfly7, Supagoof, gac3, Snowblaze

[Saint-Just]

1) night discussion definitely can hurt the town's chances, like Taffimai noted. Providing live updates on "who we're gonna lynch tomorrow" allows wolves to optimize their order.

2) Why Libro, of all things? Presuming there are normal wolves what reason would they have to kill Libro? Were they afraid of power roles or what? Are wolves sure that they will not be lynched in time so they can pick whoever is not under suspicion? Or it is a bastard mechanic, so should not be viewed the same way as generic wolfkill?

3) ok, there is a relevant quote by Caoimihin: "I don't see Book, Goof, or Libro dying tonight". Except if that was the reason for killing Libro then it's either wolves trying to frame someone, or wolves trying to make on of them look like they were targeted for a frame. It feels like that problem "you know the dice is biased, but you don't know which way; what are the odds of rolling 6?"

4) For me there are two obvious groups to target. Note that "groups" does not necessary mean "pairs" - I am very sure that if all four were eliminated then the town would win, but we do not have four lynches. So I need to refine my targeting somehow.

First group would be "voting but flying low" - BW and Supagoof. I'll see what will change during the day, but BW starting the wagon is a weak evidence that only one of them is wolf - proper distancing should have been motivated better than "number nine".

Second group would be "people responsible for gac wagon". In order of priority that would be Snowblaze, Caomihin, and flame.

I want to preface the further analysis by admitting that it is easier to find numerous faults in an active player's behaviour, and the proper amount of compensation (how much silence should be penalized as not to make the role too attractive to wolves) is hard to gauge.

Snowblaze definitely was driving the gac wagon, even her second wagon resulted in Moonfly moving onto the gac wagon (and for the target of organized wagon that move was so predictable that Snowblaze should have seen it, also the reason why I am not including Moonfly). She is trying to eliminate Moonfly based mostly on "the gut feeling". And I disagree with the idea that knowingly making things harder to analyze is NAI. It is not worth much, but ideally townies should "not only be honest but also seem honest". It is a weak evidence, but probably some evidence, unless I am completely screwing things up by misjudging proper local meta.

Caomihin started the wagon, and in fact before Snowblaze singled him out I was reasonably sure that Snow/Cao is on the same side, regardless of what that side is. Now it seems significantly less likely. Is Snowblaze an aggressive townie and Caomihin optimally midrange wolf? Is Showblaze a manipulative wolf and Caomhin just doing his job? I need others' opinions.

Flame I mention here for completeness, voting without having Moonfly's excuse of being targeted by gac. No real reading.

I will wait for now and hopefully previously inactive players will chime in.

[flame12]

Only reason I can see for targeting Libro is to kill an inactive player. Not sure how that helps the mafia though? Unless they assume we will vote another townie tonight with the current discussions and didn't want to disrupt the argument directly?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

@Saint-Just

I can see the evidence for max 1 wolf between Supagoof/BW and would agree with that. Do you think the wagon from yesterday makes Goof look more or less like a wolf, if anything?

Similarly, I can see how you're thinking Snow and I aren't both Wolf. But what makes you think we're not Town/Town?


@Flame

The argument can be made that mafia are happy with their place in the town and didn't want Libro getting replaced to rock the boat. That ends up as WIFOM (Wine In Front Of Me) arguments, but that may be the reason for the kill.

Do you have any ideas of who would be good to lynch? Or anyone you trust enough to consider town?

[flame12]

I'll need to do a proper read list tomorrow after work, but for now I'd say the only one I fully trust as town is Snow. Not sure who I'd vote for right now, but without further evidence I wouldn't vote Cao or Saint for lynch. I'll try to get out a response or two tomorrow during work though.

[Snowblaze]

Oh good, you aren't dead

(snip)

So I need to know: if Moonfly is town, could I be right? Why not?

Well... I'm actually not so pleased by still being alive. Because I was very sure I was going to die last night, and now I'm paranoid. Wolves left me alive for a reason.

What is that reason? I can think of a few:
a) wolves have reason to suspect there's a protective role who could target me and are trying to prevent their kill being blocked

b) the bastard mechanic is something to do with the nightkill and means wolves can't kill who they want to

c) I'm right and wolves think a dead me is more likely to be followed than a living me who could still be a wolf.

d) I'm wrong and if I don't re-evaluate today I'm about to single-handedly lose the game for town.

...I really, really hope it's not d). But I can't just not consider it as a world. So my job for today is to explore town!Moonfly worlds and see if any of them make as much sense as the one I already built.

(Also given that I'm not being nightkilled Libro is actually a decent alternative. The other options are all newbies or viable mislynches.)

Sorry for not getting to your question last night. I think Caoimhin and Moonfly do have partner equity - I forgot to mention this in my wall but Caoimhin also soft-defended Moonfly when I first accused them. If Moonfly is town then Caoimhin is also still wolfy, but the thing is that their agenda for wanting to kill Supagoof/BW today makes most sense from a wolf if they have a partner in you/Moonfly. Otherwise why can't they just sit back and let us lynch you/Moonfly and then win?

...yeah, based on that I don't think I'm immediately going after Caoimhin on a Moonfly townflip. Unless I think you/Caoimhin is the team which atm I don't.

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Saint-Just, are you not including Moonfly as a suspect specifically because you think I could be a wolf pushing town!moonfly or am I misinterpreting your post? What's your read on Moonfly independently of me?

flame, it would be great if you could elaborate on all of those reads when you have time.

Caoimhin, what does a Supagoof town flip tell us?

More to come, but I'm busy IRL (rest? What rest?) so it'll have to wait until later today.

[Taffimai]

[B][COLOR="#FF0000"]The exchange below is what Taff referred to in her last post.

I notice that you've conveniently included Snow's post, which on the surface looks a lot like yours, but it isn't. If Snow wanted Gac dead or Supagoof protected, she wouldn't have left the Gac wagon. If she wanted to save Gac, she could've voted Supagoof. Snow's only possible motive for her post was to lynch Moonfly. You just wanted me to move for the sake of moving (for info or to save Supagoof, I'll leave in the middle).

[Are we gonna talk about the weird Libro kill? Cause I don't see any reason for Mafia to shoot at Libro? Is the bastard mechanic against them?

I wasn't expecting Libro, but I don't find it surprising. Supagoof or Moonfly would've been surprising, because that gives us info, Libro doesn't. Last game was basically won because town could set it up so that the wolves would have to provide info with their kill or waste it.

...actually, there is one thing of note. A non-acive got murdered, and both Flame and Book Wombat posted probably shortly after reading. To me that looks like mild worry over being the next victim, which a low-lying wolf wouldn't have. Minor town points to both.

Well... I'm actually not so pleased by still being alive. Because I was very sure I was going to die last night, and now I'm paranoid. Wolves left me alive for a reason.

If you're still alive on Day 3, you're the easiest mislynch ever. "She looks really town but we haven't found any wolves yet, let's lynch Snow as a Hail Mary". You know a lot of players would go for that on LyLo.

[Snowblaze]

I don't really agree with your point on Caoimhin, Taffimai. While I definitely would have liked you to vote Moonfly yesterday that post was just intended to point out a contradiction between your logic and actions.

And... yeah. That is actually a good reason I'm still alive. And I don't know if I can actually clear myself in a way everyone will believe this game.

Should be able to at least make a start on grinding out some solving. Planning to go through every possible pairing and figure out how plausible it is, but I may run out of motivation.

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moonfly7/x
I've talked about Caoimhin as a moonfly partner already. Very much plausible.

Taffimai requires bussing, but I can construct a plausible world in which she sees that I'm going after the exact team late day one/early night one and decides to bus because a chance of solo endgaming is better than looking like moonfly's partner and being lynched for such. She's probably setting up to go after Caoimhin tomorrow after a moonfly flip, and then hope the towncred gets her through LyLo.

Conclusion: plausible. Let her bus if that's what she's doing, but don't give her too much towncred for it if moonfly does flip wolf.

Saint-Just iirc has had pretty minimal interactions with moonfly, despite both being fairly active. Didn't vote them yesterday, but neither did anyone not confirmed town from my PoV so *shrug*. Conclusion: no conclusion. Their response to my specifically asking them about moonfly should at least tell me something.

flame, Wombat and Supagoof have been too inactive for any of them to interact with moonfly so far.

...yeah, I've realised the problem with this analysis: lack of activity and information. Eh, we'll get there.

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moonfly, if you're town I really need to be able to figure that out today. It would be great if you could give some sort of reads list with explanation, or just your top suspects with reasons.

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Spoiler: Book Wombat quotes

Show

Number nine, the Supagoof!

Not getting rid of me that easily.
This week was really busy, maybe next week will be better.

Not actually an ISO because I can't find anything to comment on. More just a note so I can go back over this later if my efforts to get myself nightkilled fail.

Utterly null, needless to say.

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Spoiler: Supagoof quotes/ISO

Show

Hey, I'm actually here for the first day. I shouldn't point that out, that's not my usual behavior. Then again, this game didn't start late on a Friday, for me.

Anyway, going to start the usual suspecting of Snowblaze. Why?



....dary. Legendary!

So if we lynch her now, her legend will still live on.

That's it, I got nothing else.

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Someone who's been here awhile, catch me up and maybe help define something.

Bastard mechanic - I assume this stems from a mechanic that makes players want to scream "You Bastard!". Are there games that could be referenced or maybe a short version of the ones used we could reference?

Like, I see Moonfly pointed out a possible one with the wolves not know each other, but are there others? Or is this definition the only one?

Guessing he planned to vote me pregame and it's therefore NAI. Mechanics talk is also NAI, if I squint maybe slightly towny for "not asking in wolfchat" but I don't really believe or like that read.

Thanks. *poof* you're bolded now.

Ok, so then that makes some more sense in my head. I was curious of how Moon got to a specific bastard mechanic, but as AV specified this game only has wolf role(s), it makes a bit more sense. It makes them a bit sus on my radar still. Same for Saint Just in similar reasons. It's a just that it feels like they "know" something, y'know?

As for dying day 1, true - there are worse things, like getting run over by a steamroller. Seeing as stat wise though, I've only managed to be in the win/alive of 1 of the 4 games since I returned, I'd like try to get that stat to 2. Let some of those who've been around get booted early here.

Suspicions of Moonfly and SJ noted. Note: look into bastard mechanic talk to see if anything looks like TMI. The post itself is NAI.

Why do I get the distinct feeling that voting for AV is like attempting to lynch the Gazebo?

It probably is, even though I don't know who/what the Gazebo is. NAI.

Conclusion: null. Maybe the thinnest of townleans but I'm probably wanting him to be town more than actually thinking he is.

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ISOs are much easier when it's low posters. Back in a few hours, hopefully.

[Saint-Just]

Saint-Just, are you not including Moonfly as a suspect specifically because you think I could be a wolf pushing town!moonfly or am I misinterpreting your post? What's your read on Moonfly independently of me?

Not quite, I am not including him because it is a predictable behaviour for the target of your wagon. Bonus points for organizing it openly, "I'll vote Moon if you'll vote Moon". This is not dependent on you being a wolf (ok, some players would have allowed themselves to be mislynched, but that doesn't seem to be a universal strategy). Moon's behaviour could be explained by him being a wolf or by him being a villager, and we need to look for behaviour more likely for a wolf than a villager, otherwise it's wine all the way down.

My read on Moonfly is "hell if I know". As I said I read wolfishness in your and Caomihin's behaviour, but you accusing Caomihin at this stage seems a bit weird for a wolf, so probably only one of you is a wolf. I have no reads on BW or Supagoof but think that eliminating one of them is more useful than eliminating Moonfly.

@Saint-Just
I can see the evidence for max 1 wolf between Supagoof/BW and would agree with that. Do you think the wagon from yesterday makes Goof look more or less like a wolf, if anything?

NAI. Taffimai/BW cooperation is unlikely, and if Taffimai is town (likely) then I presume she acted on no more information than I did

Similarly, I can see how you're thinking Snow and I aren't both Wolf. But what makes you think we're not Town/Town?

I said before why Snowblaze definitely deserves some wolfpoints, but if I am wrong and she is town (let's ignore SK, for the moment, because that's definitely would be too much) them I would agree with her reasoning against you.

It probably is, even though I don't know who/what the Gazebo is. NAI.

It's a gazebo, Snowblaze



Finally, assuming bastard stuff is not interfering, what would be the result of 2v2 if wolves are correctly identified? Town needs to win two coinflips? Town needs to win one coinflip to get a draw otherwise loses? Straight up draw?

[Snowblaze]

Would it help if I tried a bit harder to put my Moonfly suspicion into words?

Spoiler: moonfly quotes

Show

I'll change my vote to an actual when I feel like there's someone good to vote for. Other least halfway decent.
As for the bastard mechanic:
Maybe the wolves are all working on their own, each with their own kill ability? That would mean it's likely only 2 wolves just because even 2 possible kills a night is a lot.
Like it not though, just spitballing.

I mean, I don't like it. I have this feeling that the bastard mechanic is going to be something that deals with us and not the narrator. But that's just my gut, but I do trust it. It was right last time and I ignored it, so I'm going with it this time. That being said, I don't have any real feelings about what gac said.
The only thing I can say about it is that I don't like the idea of wasting a lynch, day 1 Lynch's are seldom accurate but often provide info even if we kill a towny. If we actually lynch the narrator, I firmly believe nothing will happen and we will lose that day 1 info. Then day 2 will start and all we'll have to go on is whatever night 1 brings.
Oh and No Vote for now.

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If nothing else catches my eye I might drop a vote on Gac3 just because I didn't like that explanation, but other than that I'm going to wait on any hard voting.

The first quote was the one I mentioned originally. No-one was saying anything about "hey, moonfly, why aren't you making an actual vote yet?" so the unprompted remark suggests that moonfly is worried about looking suspicious.

The second was the one I called hedgy about gac. Looking at it when I'm actually awake and functioning it isn't as bad as I first thought, but it still says "I have no opinion on gac" and then "I might vote gac because I don't like their explanation" which is a contradiction.

My only other point was the meta one about them being different to UPick. I don't want to find quotes for that because it's a pain but I will if you really want me to.

It's hardly perfect but it's better than nothing given the quiet day one we had.

Can I get a better idea of your reads? I know you think one of me/Caoimhin is a wolf, but there's (probably) more than one wolf, so who do you think the other one is/others are? Do you think Caoimhin could be trying to defend a partner in moonfly/Taffimai with their focus on the inactives?

The gazebo thing is entertaining, thanks for linking it.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Caoimhin, what does a Supagoof town flip tell us?

Given the game we're playing, you're right, I should go over that possibility.

• Taff's move from Supagoof to gac means that she moved from town to town. More importantly, she moved from Supagoof to a Townie who already claimed Vanilla. I'd guess wolves would prefer trying to hit a power role.
• BW loses any Town points I've given, since the only reason to read BW as town is if Goof flips Wolf.
• Doesn't change my mind about SJ, just adding this for completeness.
• Wolves didn't have to worry about Day 1 wagons and could hang back and let things happen. Slight town points for active people/people who moved votes.

So, I've now given Taff town points if Goof flips Town or Wolf, so I kinda just trust Taff more in general.

---

I notice that you've conveniently included Snow's post, which on the surface looks a lot like yours, but it isn't. If Snow wanted Gac dead or Supagoof protected, she wouldn't have left the Gac wagon. If she wanted to save Gac, she could've voted Supagoof. Snow's only possible motive for her post was to lynch Moonfly. You just wanted me to move for the sake of moving (for info or to save Supagoof, I'll leave in the middle).

I thought you should move because you said the two wagons should be gac/Moon but your vote kept the wagons gac/Goof. The motive of my post was to learn about you and why you didn't follow through on your claim of wanting gac/Moon as top wagons.

I see how you could read me as wanting to protect Goof. But to my eyes, you're saying "I want gac/Moon as the top wagons" but then not doing anything to put Moon in danger is a red flag and I wanted to call that out.

---

Thanks for the explanation of the case against Moon, Snow, the recap is definitely useful. I don't hate the wagon, but I'm not sure enough on it to join.

As for my current reads:
Saint-Just, Snowblaze feel Town to me.
Taffimai is now a slight town read.
Book Wombat, flame12, moonfly7, will depend on their reads/additional posts.
Supagoof should give reads too, but I'm leaning Wolf.

---

Vote Count
moonfly7 (1): Taffimai
Supagoof (1): CaoimhinTheCape
No Votes: Book Wombat, Saint-Just, flame12, moonfly7, Snowblaze
No Posts: Supagoof

[Snowblaze]

Why is Supagoof a wolf? Are you pressure-voting him to get him to produce content, voting for him because you think he’s a wolf and should die, or some combination of the two?

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Also CaoimhinTheCape because they just reminded me I haven’t voted yet and I want to see where it goes.

(Taffimai, you have permission to vote Caoimhin without me killing you with fire for not voting moonfly. That was mostly exaggeration anyway.)

[Supagoof]

Wow, come back from the weekend, and find that Caoimhin has painted a target on me with like, no evidence. Super scum read from my point of view. I mean, it's public knowledge that I'm not around on the weekends, and here I find a few posts from him just bashing on me, again - with no evidence. Do you normally attack people who aren't around Cao?

Assuming one kill each Night, we'll be at eight Players to start Day 2 and six players to start Day 3. If we're not paying attention to Goof/Book, they can post once or twice to join a wagon and avoid autolynch. If either is maf and they can quietly jump in to vote a townie, why wouldn't they?

Do you want to enter Day 3 with three players who have been posting, Libro's assumed replacement, and two players who we have no info on?

Maybe the best way is to pick one of Goof/BW and one of Moon/Taff to pressure as our two wagons. But I don't want to leave them alone.

I'll give you more posts, no problem. I was definitely asking about the mechanics, because if I could get someone to explain them - that might help me understand where scum reads come from. I highly suspect Moonfly for providing the specific one, for a few reasons.

1. If the game has roles other then wolf (which AV indicated there were not) then someone putting possible mechanics out there would either be scum or hero to town.
2. The were a few mechanics suggested, though not obviously. I get a feeling there may be a hero or two out there, which is a great bastard mechanic favored to town. I'm not going to detail into that anymore, cause I'd rather have those I suspect as hero's stay safe.
3. The other mechanic that is just pinging everything in my radar is Moonfly's. It seems to be specifically wolf in nature, and therefore make him suspect as wolf, as my question on that is "Why would Moonfly know a wolf related mechanic?" This put's Moon high on my sus list.

Now, Book flying under the radar....that appears to still be happening. I ain't going to fly under the radar, but I ain't going to be shot down with shady logic either.

Alright, some reads I promised.

Snowblaze questioned most players throughout the day, doing good work for Day 1 scumhunting.
Saint-Just has some mechanic talk, and the reasoning for voting Supagoof over gac feels like Town. Yeah, no, I like this.
flame12 threw a lampshade on their vote for gac. My instinct is mafia wouldn't do this, but flame is new so I'm putting too much stock in that. Asked a question about the AV votes. Would like more, but not top of my list (or bottom, as it were).
Taffimai a good amount of activity, appreciate the reads list. There was a little weirdness of wanting Moon/gac as competing wagons, but not moving to either. Now that gac flipped town, Taff moving away from Goof/not onto Moon could be mafia protecting a buddy/ensuring a town lynch.
moonfly7 discusses what the mechanic may be, votes AV then gac. Becomes a wagon for wording on one of his posts. And is apparently a possible wagon for tomorrow? I don't see that great a reason to vote moon right now, but nothing to push him up to town.
Libro is inactive. Whether he shows up or is replaced, we've missed out on a Day of activity regardless of whether Libro shows or someone steps in. I don't like giving people a pass, but lynching Libro gives us nothing but a flip.
Supagoof a couple posts, but mostly asks meta things (comment about lynching AV, bastard mechanic). Also, no info.
Book Wombat had an initial vote and then explained something about last game. No info.

Obviously I think your reads are off, or perhaps you intentionally want to cast shade with them. The quote you took from Saint Just's about me isn't a target at me, yet you are using it as a basis for targeting me, and during a time I'm known to not be around. You know from history with me that I do get overprotective and will defend myself, as I'm doing now, and the timing of your attack is really setting me off. Do you normally go kick people while they away?

Mainly though, Caoimhin. He pressured me to get off of Supagoof without trying to particularly convince me to vote Gac. It irked me at the time that apparently, a Gac-Moonfly tie was better to him than a Gac-Supagoof tie, which looks very much like a buddy-buddy thing to me. I rejected it at the time because I'm aware of being biased. I'm biased because Caoimhin has suspected me a lot and it feels personal. I mean, I voted for his choice and still he's seeing me as prime lynch material rather than apologising. On top of that, I know I'm biased against players with a particular play style. I suspected Mr. Popo in Love Letter, and Rogan last game. Players who come in strong with the suspicions will just always look wolf to me.

So I need to know: if Moonfly is town, could I be right? Why not?

Taff, you are making some great points here. I feel that players who have come in strong for the last games I've been in have been doing such to hide in plain sight. Snow, in Upick. Rogan/AV in Love Letter. Caoimhin has been pressuring sublty, so he may be trying to do this as well. It (aside from him having a focus on me) is just pinging my radar.

3) ok, there is a relevant quote by Caoimihin: "I don't see Book, Goof, or Libro dying tonight". Except if that was the reason for killing Libro then it's either wolves trying to frame someone, or wolves trying to make on of them look like they were targeted for a frame. It feels like that problem "you know the dice is biased, but you don't know which way; what are the odds of rolling 6?"

This. I agree with this. He basically lays out the path he wants us to walk down, and then "Poof", the dice are cast.

I mean, why would the wolves target Libro, an inactive? I can't wrap my head around that. But I can wrap my head around the thought of "List 3 players, kill one, say the other two are wolves." being a total scum move.

So - my sus list.

Snowblaze Did not overreact to being targeted by me yesterday, even helped point out for me to correct it, pretty chill. Helping with the scum reads.
flame12Now I don't have a read on flame12. But I haven't seen anything scum-esque on him.
Taffimai The cipher talk raises my eyebrows quite a bit. Taff being convinced to change wagons is also something I'd expect.
Book WombatDon't have a read, but he's around. He is flying under the radar.
Saint-Just The post Cape is using to leverage his attack on me I didn't read that I was under suspicion in this post at all, so I'm inclined to believe Saint-Just is town.
CaoimhinTheCapeMostly for the shade he casts on players who aren't around.
moonfly7The bastard mechanic talk just pings my radar so hard. I mean, the only one directly suggested dealing with the wolves...

So, Moonfly7 is my pick.

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Vote count
-----------------------------------
Moonfly7 (2) : Taffimai, Supagoof
Supagoof (1): CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Snowblaze

Not voted:
------------------------
Book Wombat
Flame12
Moonfly7
Saint-Just

[Snowblaze]

Hi Supagoof. Nice to see we’re agreeing on stuff.

One thing I did notice is that you have SJ coloured/ordered as null but say you think they’re town - explain?

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Unlikely wolf pairs
Supagoof/CaoimhinTheCape
Supagoof/Book Wombat
Supagoof/Saint-Just
Supagoof/moonfly7
CaoimhinTheCape/Book Wombat

Off a fairly-surface-level read, since as predicted my motivation is running out. Looks good for Supagoof!

[Supagoof]

Hi Supagoof. Nice to see we’re agreeing on stuff.

One thing I did notice is that you have SJ coloured/ordered as null but say you think they’re town - explain?

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Unlikely wolf pairs
Supagoof/CaoimhinTheCape
Supagoof/Book Wombat
Supagoof/Saint-Just
Supagoof/moonfly7
CaoimhinTheCape/Book Wombat

Off a fairly-surface-level read, since as predicted my motivation is running out. Looks good for Supagoof!

Thank you. That feels weird, that you and I are in agreement.

3 reasons he's coloured that way....
One - I'm lazy and stole Cape's list to make my own, then re-ordered it based on my gut and thoughts. I had SJ higher (green) but moved him lower for reason two.
Two - I'm getting a possible Caoimhin/Saint-Just pairing, but only because Cape was using SJ's post to throw shade on me. Doesn't make SJ not town, but it did bring him down into the neutrals.
Three - I consider neutrals as town based on the simplicity of this game. AV never mentioned neutrals, and I can't see any bastard mechanic where silently having them is a bastard move.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Why is Supagoof a wolf? Are you pressure-voting him to get him to produce content, voting for him because you think he’s a wolf and should die, or some combination of the two?

A combo. I want content from Goof and a vote is the way to do it. I already said I wanted to vote either Book or Goof and based on last Night, I figure Goof is the best place to start. We had the sort of wagon on Goof Day 1 so I figured that would be a good place to start.

Wow, come back from the weekend, and find that Caoimhin has painted a target on me with like, no evidence. Super scum read from my point of view. I mean, it's public knowledge that I'm not around on the weekends, and here I find a few posts from him just bashing on me, again - with no evidence. Do you normally attack people who aren't around Cao?

Obviously I think your reads are off, or perhaps you intentionally want to cast shade with them. The quote you took from Saint Just's about me isn't a target at me, yet you are using it as a basis for targeting me, and during a time I'm known to not be around. You know from history with me that I do get overprotective and will defend myself, as I'm doing now, and the timing of your attack is really setting me off. Do you normally go kick people while they away?

Taff, you are making some great points here. I feel that players who have come in strong for the last games I've been in have been doing such to hide in plain sight. Snow, in Upick. Rogan/AV in Love Letter. Caoimhin has been pressuring sublty, so he may be trying to do this as well. It (aside from him having a focus on me) is just pinging my radar.

First, sorry. I crossed a line attacking you for not being around to post when I knew you're not active on the weekend. Your first post is promising (a lot more that BW's post today) but when 3/10 players were not around Day 1 I got overly worried about going far into the game without info.

The reasons I've given for coming down hard on you are to get your reads/prompt activity and the D1 Wagon on you means that we get more from your flip or other people's reactions to wagoning you again. You've given your reads, so that's good. That said, I want to keep my vote on you for now. Particularly until the people not voting share more of their thoughts on the game and their reads.

I understand if you don't want to go into too much detail, but can you define how you use "Hero" in your post?

I am going to hard defend myself against Taff's last complaint against me.

So there you have it. All in all I think the two wagons should be Moonfly and Gac today, since they're the two players that are somewhat under suspicion, but I need some time to decide between my own leaning that out of those two, I'd rather believe Gac as a wolf than Moonfly, and Saint-Just's very good point that Gac's wagon feels more coordinated (unless the wolves are exactly Gac and Snow, but eh). In the mean time, I'm happy to leave my vote where it is because you never know, the RNG might have gotten lucky.

Kinda confused about your stance taff. It sounds like moonfly and gac are your top two suspects, but your vote is making it a coin flip between gac and supagoof?

If you'd rather moon over supagoof, why not move it?

Taff says that she thinks the wagons should be Moon/gac but does not do anything to make the wagons Moon/gac. That felt weird to me and I stand behind pointing that out.

---

Vote Count
moonfly7 (2): Taffimai, Supagoof
Supagoof (1): CaoimhinTheCape
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Snowblaze
No Votes: Book Wombat, Saint-Just, flame12, moonfly7

[Snowblaze]

Supagoof should give reads too, but I'm leaning Wolf.

You’ve given plenty of reasons for wanting to pressure-wagon Supagoof but none for why you think Supagoof is a wolf.

Why do you think Supagoof is a wolf?

[Saint-Just]

This. I agree with this. He basically lays out the path he wants us to walk down, and then "Poof", the dice are cast.

I mean, why would the wolves target Libro, an inactive? I can't wrap my head around that. But I can wrap my head around the thought of "List 3 players, kill one, say the other two are wolves." being a total scum move.

I see why the phrase "I do not see those people dying tonight" by itself may be seen as a scum move; but when that prediction is falsified that on the surface indicates that the person who said that was not on the need-to-know list. Next we of course conclude that wolves will do such thing to provide an alibi to one of their own, next that they will do so to frame a non-wolf and then it's WIFOM. That is why I said about biased dice - Caomihin's phrase means that he is either more likely to be a wolf or less likely, it's not NAI, but I am unsure in which direction.

[Book Wombat]

No read list as I cannot read people well. Really, read through the four pages again and zilch.
Shouldn't use my first vote on Day 1 in any game for reads, it's random.
Voting CaoimhinTheCape for no good reasons. Also no bad ones.
Now I shall disappear again for an unknown amount of time.

[Supagoof]

First, sorry. I crossed a line attacking you for not being around to post when I knew you're not active on the weekend. Your first post is promising (a lot more that BW's post today) but when 3/10 players were not around Day 1 I got overly worried about going far into the game without info.

The reasons I've given for coming down hard on you are to get your reads/prompt activity and the D1 Wagon on you means that we get more from your flip or other people's reactions to wagoning you again. You've given your reads, so that's good. That said, I want to keep my vote on you for now. Particularly until the people not voting share more of their thoughts on the game and their reads.

I understand if you don't want to go into too much detail, but can you define how you use "Hero" in your post?

I forgive you. [hug] It felt as though you were painting a very specific picture, and I don't know how Book feels on it, but you did use our names 7+ times together and just doing that you are creating an artificial pairing, which makes me wonder why. Sure, I had one of the alternative bandwagons day 1, but I don't know why that was. And Book didn't have any votes day 1.

As for hero defined. A baner/seer/etc....

[moonfly7]

Would it help if I tried a bit harder to put my Moonfly suspicion into words?

Spoiler: moonfly quotes

Show

The first quote was the one I mentioned originally. No-one was saying anything about "hey, moonfly, why aren't you making an actual vote yet?" so the unprompted remark suggests that moonfly is worried about looking suspicious.

The second was the one I called hedgy about gac. Looking at it when I'm actually awake and functioning it isn't as bad as I first thought, but it still says "I have no opinion on gac" and then "I might vote gac because I don't like their explanation" which is a contradiction.

My only other point was the meta one about them being different to UPick. I don't want to find quotes for that because it's a pain but I will if you really want me to.

It's hardly perfect but it's better than nothing given the quiet day one we had.

Can I get a better idea of your reads? I know you think one of me/Caoimhin is a wolf, but there's (probably) more than one wolf, so who do you think the other one is/others are? Do you think Caoimhin could be trying to defend a partner in moonfly/Taffimai with their focus on the inactives?

The gazebo thing is entertaining, thanks for linking it.

The pre-posting was just me being me Snow, I get paranoid, as shown by game one, and reflexively cover my own tuckus.
As for the gac post, I see I worded it poorly. It's supposed to be me saying "I don't think there's a lot of evidence for gac, but I think wasting a lynch day 1 is worse than a misslynch, so if push comes to shove I'll vote gac" and then realising that wasn't clear, I posted the addendum. Which I admit can be read as contradictory, in his sight.

As for my game change, mostly a lack of energy I'm guessing, the first game was at the beginning of college. This game is happening right before finals. Big difference for me, participation wise.

Thank you. That feels weird, that you and I are in agreement.

3 reasons he's coloured that way....
One - I'm lazy and stole Cape's list to make my own, then re-ordered it based on my gut and thoughts. I had SJ higher (green) but moved him lower for reason two.
Two - I'm getting a possible Caoimhin/Saint-Just pairing, but only because Cape was using SJ's post to throw shade on me. Doesn't make SJ not town, but it did bring him down into the neutrals.
Three - I consider neutrals as town based on the simplicity of this game. AV never mentioned neutrals, and I can't see any bastard mechanic where silently having them is a bastard move.

As requested, I'll start my reads. Beginning with supaGoof. From the last game I know goof can be firey at times, but this time he came out of left field swinging with more bizarre confidence than Snow had when accusing me, and Snow is the one who started my wagon and at least had solid reasoning.

He actively throws out more evidence on a SJ Cao pairing than on me, only saying that I'm Sus, while at least saying the cao used SJs post against him. Admittedly Goofs argument there isn't really very strong, but it's more of a throwaway line anyways. But my point is that there's more evidence and thought in that short piece than in the entirety of his post on me.


On to Cao:
Cao only had one majority suspicious thing for me: he said his Goof vote was just to make him vote or post, but goof has posted and Cao hasn't changed.
Also to address the "cao defending me thing, I must be oblivious because I didn't ever notice that. Not trying to deny it just legitimately must have missed it. Anyone mind posting quotes of that?

So that's also why he gets my vote, he seems to be acting off to me, and way more confident than I'd expect with the evidence available.

Snowblaze: this is the last one for now. I'll do more when I can. My only thing that's really suspicious about snow is that she voted someone other than me after telling Taff "vote for moon with me next time" but changing your mind isn't really much of a crime, just a note I wanted to make.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

You’ve given plenty of reasons for wanting to pressure-wagon Supagoof but none for why you think Supagoof is a wolf.

Why do you think Supagoof is a wolf?

So that's also why he gets my vote, he seems to be acting off to me, and way more confident than I'd expect with the evidence available.

Moonfly's description is very accurate. I really need to check myself though, since this is a bastard game I can't assume I'll be able to always sniff out whoever has bad intentions.

As for hero defined. A baner/seer/etc....

Thanks, that makes sense. Just wanted to See if there was a specific role called "hero" that I hadn't heard of and you were talking about, or if it was just a power role in general.

Voting CaoimhinTheCape for no good reasons. Also no bad ones.

Uhhh. Book. Like. This quote is very weird to me. If you don't trust me I understand, but saying there's no good or bad reason for the vote? I feel like I've done enough to warrant more of an opinion than that.



By my count, we have 20 hours or so until deadline? I'd really like to see where SJ and flame decide to put their votes. I don't want to move, but I will if it saves me.

There still should be plenty of time for discussion before then, but it's been a while to still have no vote out.

---

Vote Count
moonfly7 (2): Taffimai, Supagoof
Supagoof (2): CaoimhinTheCape, moonfly7
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Snowblaze, Book Wombat
No Votes: Saint-Just, flame12

[Saint-Just]

Ok, things definitely not going how I expected. I thought that of my top 4 Supagoof would be the only viable target, and my read of him has not changed significantly, but I see the opportunity on a higher-priority target

CaomihinTheCape

And with two other people on my top 4 starting that wagon we get the opportunity to move forward either way.

No read list as I cannot read people well. Really, read through the four pages again and zilch.
Shouldn't use my first vote on Day 1 in any game for reads, it's random.
Voting CaoimhinTheCape for no good reasons. Also no bad ones.
Now I shall disappear again for an unknown amount of time.

Also, this? This was just plain rude.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Alright, well, so much for being coy about it.

My role is the Spiritualist, who can investigate someone each night and learn if they are a Saboteur. I investigated Supagoof last night and they turned up Saboteur. I took a hard stance against Goof cause of my result, and I wanted to see where people voted before claiming invest.

I hinted at it last night and then followed up with a vote when I got the guilty. Basically said it in one of my Night posts.

I'll take a look at Goof tonight, since there was something of a wagon on him Day 1. We'll see if there's anything we would learn from knowing Goof's alignment and how that reflects on others.

The problem is the bastard mechanic. It can be something that screws with my results and Goof is innocent, or the bastard mechanic is something else and I actually hit a bad guy.


Thoughts are appreciated.

---

Vote Count
moonfly7 (2): Taffimai, Supagoof
Supagoof (2): CaoimhinTheCape, moonfly7
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Snowblaze, Book Wombat, Saint-Just
No Votes: flame12

[Saint-Just]

If in standard someone claimed the seer at 6/2 would it be a normal play to follow through on that claim? I think yes, because even with a wolf fakeclaiming it will result in 3/1 two days later, but I hope for more opinions.

Of course there is a bastard stuff to be concerned about, but unless someone else is claiming seer I am willing to bet my life and my victory on an absence of fake seer/fool mechanic

[flame12]

Realized while typing this out that I don't have a lot to say that hasn't already been said by multiple people, but having gone through all four pages

Book Wombat: Haven't really interacted with them enough to say one way or the other
CaoimhinTheCape: Was fairly certain they were either town or a very bold wolf. Went back and reread all their posts very thoroughly after that last revelation, focusing on the unedited ones which had to be in their initial form, and they either set up a seer play very well over the last day, or actually are the seer. However, based on the wording in that last post it feels more like a desperation play to get one more round of town deaths in.
moonfly7: Not sure how to read this. Based on their posts in a vacuum, I read townie, but with everything else in play? Theres just enough overlap with what Cao is doing to make me suspicious.
Saint-Just: Feel like I can trust them for now, both because of the info they have brought and because they are still calling out people on shaky voting even when they share votes.
Snowblaze: I trust them as town thanks to all the analysis feeling right, none of it feels off in any of the posts. Could be they are just analyzing as if town while being wolf, but its providing us too much good intel for that to feel right.
Supagoof: Came back from Cao's accusation quite strongly, but others are saying its fairly normal play for goof, so not sure how much to read into that. Its partially balanced in their favor though from the reads they gave in their return post.
Taffimai: Mostly a neutral reading for the game, but they've been quite helpful as a new player for helping me catch up on how others reacted in previous games, so at the very least some townie points for helping the new people catch up

All that being said, I don't feel I really contributed much, but should still get my vote in before time runs out, as I won't be able to post too much between now and end of day 2 at this point. Going with my gut and the logic of the two people I feel are most townie so far, that being Snow and Saint,
CaoimhinTheCape

[moonfly7]

Moonfly's description is very accurate. I really need to check myself though, since this is a bastard game I can't assume I'll be able to always sniff out whoever has bad intentions.



Thanks, that makes sense. Just wanted to See if there was a specific role called "hero" that I hadn't heard of and you were talking about, or if it was just a power role in general.



Uhhh. Book. Like. This quote is very weird to me. If you don't trust me I understand, but saying there's no good or bad reason for the vote? I feel like I've done enough to warrant more of an opinion than that.



By my count, we have 20 hours or so until deadline? I'd really like to see where SJ and flame decide to put their votes. I don't want to move, but I will if it saves me.

There still should be plenty of time for discussion before then, but it's been a while to still have no vote out.

---

Vote Count
moonfly7 (2): Taffimai, Supagoof
Supagoof (2): CaoimhinTheCape, moonfly7
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Snowblaze, Book Wombat
No Votes: Saint-Just, flame12

Well, that, thats quite a claim. I certianly still think that Goof is coming off strange, but maybe it's just bias on my part for how hard he came after me right out of the gate? I dunno. I'm not sure if Cao is telling the truth or not, I'd like to think he is, but I was fooled by wanting to believe him last game. Still, it might explain why he's been after Goof.
I'm not changing my vote, because I legitimately think that opening volley on me made no sense, and everything afterwards lacked substance. Still, if Cao gets lynched, and it's looking like he might, we should plan on who to vote for depending on how he flips. If Cao flips scum, I'm suspicious. we've agreed on the goof wagon, and suspicions of us working together as scum partners have been tossed around. So if he dies and flips scum I'm a legitimate vote. But if Cao flips town, we need to go hard on Goof immediatly, especially if his death read says he is what he claims.

But obviously, the preffered method here is getting Goof and not Cao. Because I 1, actually think we've got reasons to suspect goof, and 2, Cao could very well be our Seer.

No read list as I cannot read people well. Really, read through the four pages again and zilch.
Shouldn't use my first vote on Day 1 in any game for reads, it's random.
Voting CaoimhinTheCape for no good reasons. Also no bad ones.
Now I shall disappear again for an unknown amount of time.

I know it's been said, but this comment by book rubs me all kinds of the wrong ways. when he voted there were plenty of solid arguments for other people, and he dropped a vote on Cao, which quickly grew into the leading wagon. Quite honestly at that point my own wagon and goofs looked better, and instead he said that Cao's "didn't look good or bad" and voted for him. Not really anything concrete, but definitley something to keep an eye on him for.

[Saint-Just]

Assuming we're not screwed up by the bastard mechanic in both cases we can get 3/1 on day 4. Not a good position to be but not the worst. So the question is just "what is more likely to net us 5/1 next day"? I don't think we should rely on existence of other power roles, unless there is a claim.

[Snowblaze]

flame, do bear in mind that SJ and I both voted Caoimhin before the Seer claim and might well change our minds as a result of it.

...I don't know whether I have. I'm second-guessing myself again and again. Because I want the claim to be fake. I want my wolfreads to be accurate and to not be the blundering idiot who just outed the Seer. Unvoting for now but will always vote between Caoimhin/Supagoof before EOD.

Also I have to say this: there's a chance there are three wolves, so today is MyLo and we can't just kill both claims because if we pick wrong we lose.

@Saint-Just
@Taffimai
Do you think the claim is real? Who should we kill today?

@Caoimhin:
Why did you target Supagoof last night?
Were you planning to keep your results hidden and get Supagoof lynched without outing yourself, or to wait and see how the day played out but reveal before EOD?

- - - Updated - - -

Okay. Time to explore wolf!Supagoof worlds.

Caoimhin is obviously locktown in those situations. I also unpaired Supagoof with SJ, BW and moonfly. If I trust those, that leaves:

flame12
Taffimai

And even Taffimai as a Supagoof partner is a stretch. I need to go see if there's any significant flame/Supagoof interactions, but I doubt it. Caoimhin, who do you think Supagoof's partner is?

screams into the abyss