Afterlife 2

[Snowblaze]

flame, can you talk more about Caoimhin? Why did you initially townread them and how did you get to voting them from there, despite the claim?

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In general. It's mechanically optimal to kill Supagoof here. Caoimhin makes sense as a Seer, and that also explains a lot of the things I was wolfreading from them.

Actually I just remembered another question I meant to ask: why did you decide to produce that reads list night one?

But. My gut is screaming that Caoimhin is the wolf here. Because I want to be right, but also because I still think there are unexplained wolfy things, and because I can't really find a completely plausible Supagoof wolf world.

...confused and paranoid. As always.

[Saint-Just]

In general. It's mechanically optimal to kill Supagoof here.

Um, why? It seems that unless there are other power roles we still end up with 5/1 and no seer on a right choice and 4/2 and no true power claims on a wrong choice. The only question being which choice is right.

[Snowblaze]

Um, why? It seems that unless there are other power roles we still end up with 5/1 and no seer on a right choice and 4/2 and no true power claims on a wrong choice. The only question being which choice is right.

If we kill Caoimhin wrongly we've lost the Seer.

...but Caoimhin probably gets murdered by the wolves anyway if Supagoof is a wolf.

Eh. You have a point.

[Taffimai]

Spent the morning writing a long post with lots of quotes for Snow to answer to, but then there was the claim, so now I need to revise and I'm out of time I'll have to rush tonight to get it in before the end of the day. Sure wish we had 72 hours again.

Quickly though:
I read all AV's previous games. She loves messing with the seeer mechanic. All the earlier games always had seeer + fake seeer (fool) and if that's the case, someone should speak up to counterclaim please. Later games like Jellicle Cats and Afterlife 1 messed with the role in different ways, so I'm sure if Caoimhin is genuine, something will be up, I just don't know what.

I don't want to lynch the seeer, the normal thing to do is to lynch Supagoof. BUT given that Caoimhin might be a fool, Supagoof's flip will be NAI. Therefore, if there's a second claim, both are likely correct and we lynch Supagoof to find out which is which. If there's not, we lynch Caoimhin. Also this prevents the wolves from counterclaiming, because by doing so they save the seeer, and they can't risk there being three claims. Also exposes Caoimhin if he's a fake-claiming wolf.

[Saint-Just]

@Taffimai

I'm afraid I'm coming down with something, so may not be able to contribute as much as I did, but I have a question about previous games: would the fool be revealed in the flip to be a fool? Mafiascum wiki says they should, but obviously the general understanding of what is normal differs from place to place.

Also I should note that given what you say I should retract my statement "I am willing to bet my life and my victory on an absence of fake seer/fool mechanic".

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Just woke up, can answer some questions but then I'll be away for an hour or so.

In the case of 3 Wolves, we have to get it right here. I don't think we have 3, because MyLo after 1 miss seems to soon, but that's for you to decide.

@Caoimhin:
Why did you target Supagoof last night?
Were you planning to keep your results hidden and get Supagoof lynched without outing yourself, or to wait and see how the day played out but reveal before EOD?

Caoimhin, who do you think Supagoof's partner is?

It's exactly as I explained earlier. I didn't think Book/Goof/Libro would die overnight, so I wanted to pick one of them. Of those three, Supagoof had a bit of a wagon Day 1, so I figured learning his role would give me more information than the other two. Everyone else I could look back to their posts and scumhunt the normal way.

Yes, if I wasn't in trouble I didn't plan to out myself if Goof got lynched. Mafia may have caught on, but I would have taken out one of the Wolves and made them kill someone suspected by town.

Even if someone else died D2 instead I would have kept quiet, the plan was just before Day 3 begins, I would reference my posts saying "I'll look into Goof at Night" and then immediately after "Vote: Supagoof" in case I died. D3 I would have definitely claimed.

So, a guilty Supagoof means that I'd trust BW a bit (for marking their vote on Supagoof all Day) and reinforces my Saint-Just read. Also would change my mind about Taff (leaving her vote on Supagoof longer than I expected.

I'd trust BW for now, still feel good about SJ, and trust Taff more. Not locktown on anyone but SJ but enough for now. After the D2 that happened, I'll put Moonfly in this group, since they joined me on Goof when it wasn't super popular and their name was thrown out as a lynch.

As for anyone else, it'll depend on if votes move. Flame voting me after claiming Seer is not a good look, so I'd probably start there.

Actually I just remembered another question I meant to ask: why did you decide to produce that reads list night one?

Mostly cause you asked. I played D1 where I wouldn't be targeted with the Night 1 kill. The list was largely accurate, with a couple small switches. I was more confident in SJ as Town than Snow, but I gave you the top spot in case mafia followed up on that and killed you (sorry) that would obviously clear up any worry. The inactives got the low slots so it would make sense when I voted one of them instead of Moon/Taff and I wouldn't out myself as Seer.

Um, why? It seems that unless there are other power roles we still end up with 5/1 and no seer on a right choice and 4/2 and no true power claims on a wrong choice. The only question being which choice is right.

Assuming Town!Cao and accurate results, we lynch Goof and then I likely die at Night.
Or, we lynch Cao and then someone trusted by Town dies at Night. D3 you lynch Goof, after which another trusted person is killed N3.

If I were Wolf, those scenarios would be flipped. Basically, if I'm Town I soak up a Night kill for you or the Wolves risk keeping Seer in the game. I would argue the upside of trusting Seer is better, but I'm biased.

I have a question about previous games: would the fool be revealed in the flip to be a fool? Mafiascum wiki says they should, but obviously the general understanding of what is normal differs from place to place.

I know I'm not Taff, but I'm not sure if anything changing my results is revealed on death. My role PM gives no hints of my results being wrong.

---

I think most people have posted since my claim, so I'm not expecting any more seers to come up at this point.

My question for you guys is: if I'm a Wolf, who is my partner? I don't think anyone is considering a 1 Wolf game, so there would be someone out there that you'd pair with me. I'm seeing a lot that I would unpair from myself, but I'm kinda biased here.

Will be around again in an hour and a half.

[Saint-Just]

Also: would fool in AV version get inverse readings or truly random stuff, like a coin toss?

[Snowblaze]

Thanks Caoimhin.

- I get wanting to target Supagoof, that logic makes sense

- I didn't actually ask for a reads list. I observed that you weren't contributing as much as I expected. If you're a Seer trying to avoid getting yourself nightkilled it would make sense for you to be okay with mild suspicion.

- If you're town then trying to get me nightkilled is fine, it's basically what I've been doing all game.

- not outing yourself is a decent strategy, but... in that case why vote Supagoof? It was pretty predictable that I'd be hard wolfreading you for it if you didn't have a strong enough case, which probably makes the situation we're in now inevitable. Either you plan to announce today "hey, Supagoof is a wolf" or you keep your mouth shut and focus on other people. Focusing on Supagoof but not outing yourself doesn't fit.

Also I think moonfly is your partner, I've been pretty clear on that for a while. I'd unpair you from Supagoof (obviously), BW, SJ and maybe Taffimai.

Which is about the same as my list of unpairings from Supagoof. So SJ and BW are just town, and Taffimai probably is too. (Slightly paranoid there, though.)

So we have:
Saint-Just/Book Wombat/exactly one of Caoimhin/Supagoof
Taffimai

flame12
moonfly7

Exactly one of Caoimhin/Supagoof

And since I'm also unpairing Supagoof/moonfly that means that it's either:
Supagoof/flame
Caoimhin/moonfly
Caoimhin/flame

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Wait, no, Taffimai never actually voted Caoimhin so I can't rule that team out either. Eh, she's been reasonably towny independently of that so I don't think that's a point of immediate concern.

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Does anyone think any of those unpairings are invalid?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

- not outing yourself is a decent strategy, but... in that case why vote Supagoof? It was pretty predictable that I'd be hard wolfreading you for it if you didn't have a strong enough case, which probably makes the situation we're in now inevitable. Either you plan to announce today "hey, Supagoof is a wolf" or you keep your mouth shut and focus on other people. Focusing on Supagoof but not outing yourself doesn't fit.

...

Caoimhin/flame

Does anyone think any of those unpairings are invalid?

I figured you would be Wolfreading me, but you were also very focused on Moon. Other people had minor suspicions of me but I didn't think it would be enough to form a wagon on me. Honestly, before BW's vote for no reason, I don't think I was a viable wagon and I would have made it through the Day.

Voting for Supagoof was to give a baseline for myself (and later, town) to judge everyone based on. I had a Wolf result and anyone who joined me on the wagon before the Seer claim I could comfortably call Town. Any other wagons could be judged based on that and if/when I died there would be a clear indication of my N1 results.



Again, biased source, but if Wolf!Cao claims Seer, why does Wolf!Flame vote against me?

EDIT: More specifically, how does flame work as a Wolf with both myself and Supagoof?

[moonfly7]

Thanks Caoimhin.

- I get wanting to target Supagoof, that logic makes sense

- I didn't actually ask for a reads list. I observed that you weren't contributing as much as I expected. If you're a Seer trying to avoid getting yourself nightkilled it would make sense for you to be okay with mild suspicion.

- If you're town then trying to get me nightkilled is fine, it's basically what I've been doing all game.

- not outing yourself is a decent strategy, but... in that case why vote Supagoof? It was pretty predictable that I'd be hard wolfreading you for it if you didn't have a strong enough case, which probably makes the situation we're in now inevitable. Either you plan to announce today "hey, Supagoof is a wolf" or you keep your mouth shut and focus on other people. Focusing on Supagoof but not outing yourself doesn't fit.

Also I think moonfly is your partner, I've been pretty clear on that for a while. I'd unpair you from Supagoof (obviously), BW, SJ and maybe Taffimai.

Which is about the same as my list of unpairings from Supagoof. So SJ and BW are just town, and Taffimai probably is too. (Slightly paranoid there, though.)

So we have:
Saint-Just/Book Wombat/exactly one of Caoimhin/Supagoof
Taffimai

flame12
moonfly7

Exactly one of Caoimhin/Supagoof

And since I'm also unpairing Supagoof/moonfly that means that it's either:
Supagoof/flame
Caoimhin/moonfly
Caoimhin/flame

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Wait, no, Taffimai never actually voted Caoimhin so I can't rule that team out either. Eh, she's been reasonably towny independently of that so I don't think that's a point of immediate concern.

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Does anyone think any of those unpairings are invalid?

The unpairings are pretty solid, I think they work.

Personally with this situation I would say we should try and save our possible seer. As others have said: if we Lynch the wrong person here, we lose 2 townies. One from our misslynch, one in night kill. And then we need to kill the Wolf next day. And that's for either being wolf.

If Cao is a wolf and we Lynch Goof, we loose 2 town members. But if Goof is a wolf and we Lynch Cao, we'll loose our seer and an additional towny. Either way if we're wrong we loose 2 people. But if we vote goof we at least avoid the chance of losing our seer and a Towny. Taking any suspicions out for a second: both have even odds of being wolf. Of the two of them, Caos death has the potential to hurt us more if he's telling the truth. With a 50/50 shot between them, I think the smart move would be voting goof.

But of course, no one is going to listen to that because Snow seems dead set on painting me and Cao as partners. Still asking for posts from yesterday that show that because I didn't notice anything like that going on, but I guess it doesn't really matter.

[Supagoof]

See, the thing to me is, I'm just a townie. So Caoihmhin's attack on me means
A. He's a fool
B. He's a wolf who's going down the drain and lying to get the lynch off himself with the next viable target.
C. I'm lying.

Well, I am not lying. I think it's option 2 more than anything. I do believe Caoihmhin got this idea from Snow's post day 1.

Actually I do now have a guess for the bastard mechanic: there are no power roles at all, and wolves know this so can safely fakeclaim PRs.

[Snowblaze]

@moonfly:

I'm not dead sure the team is you/Caoimhin. I think it's most likely but you'll notice I unvoted Caoimhin. I'm absolutely down to consider counter arguments.

SJ made a good point that if we kill Supagoof today then Caoimhin probably dies tonight so we're not going to get more useful results.

We shouldn't take suspicions out of this. We should vote whoever we think is a wolf.

And if you agree with my unpairings then there's only one possible team given town!Caoimhin (Supagoof/flame) and honestly who cares about killing the Seer if it gives us the exact team?

Got RL stuff to do, will find the Caoimhin soft-defending you quote later.

[flame12]

The unpairings are pretty solid, I think they work.

Personally with this situation I would say we should try and save our possible seer. As others have said: if we Lynch the wrong person here, we lose 2 townies. One from our misslynch, one in night kill. And then we need to kill the Wolf next day. And that's for either being wolf.

If Cao is a wolf and we Lynch Goof, we loose 2 town members. But if Goof is a wolf and we Lynch Cao, we'll loose our seer and an additional towny. Either way if we're wrong we loose 2 people. But if we vote goof we at least avoid the chance of losing our seer and a Towny. Taking any suspicions out for a second: both have even odds of being wolf. Of the two of them, Caos death has the potential to hurt us more if he's telling the truth. With a 50/50 shot between them, I think the smart move would be voting goof.

But of course, no one is going to listen to that because Snow seems dead set on painting me and Cao as partners. Still asking for posts from yesterday that show that because I didn't notice anything like that going on, but I guess it doesn't really matter.

The partners thing is almost exclusively from Cao painting you as extremely town in their own posts, but as seer with a clear wolf I would also be trying to make a normal townie less of a target if only to get rid of the guaranteed wolf.

The way I read Cao we have three options, they are a wolf and need to die, they are the seer and we need to vote goof, they are the fool/screwed by the bastard mechanic, in which case not voting them makes sense but keeping the bad info coming in potentially bites us down the road. The problem is I can't tell if it's my own bias about wolves always claiming roles that's making my gut yell wolf about him. That being said, and having gone over it again, a 2/3 reason to jot vote someone is something I shouldn't ignore on a barely founded hunch. Moving to no vote. for now. Won't be able to check back for about an hour or two and won't be able to check after that till after days end.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

And if you agree with my unpairings then there's only one possible team given town!Caoimhin (Supagoof/flame) and honestly who cares about killing the Seer if it gives us the exact team?

Where did you rule out Goof/Taff?

Also, for everyone who is not Snowblaze, there's always the chance of Goof/Snow (less likely, I think Snow's posts have looked like Town considering all possibilities today but still there).

See, the thing to me is, I'm just a townie. So Caoihmhin's attack on me means
A. He's a fool
B. He's a wolf who's going down the drain and lying to get the lynch off himself with the next viable target.
C. I'm lying.

Well, I am not lying. I think it's option 2 more than anything. I do believe Caoihmhin got this idea from Snow's post day 1.

Option 2 implies I put myself in this drain/in trouble by pushing against Supagoof for... some reason?

The next viable target is Moonfly - Snow and SJ both voiced suspicions of Moon Day 1 and with this early D2 quote from Snow:

Sorry for not getting to your question last night. I think Caoimhin and Moonfly do have partner equity - I forgot to mention this in my wall but Caoimhin also soft-defended Moonfly when I first accused them. If Moonfly is town then Caoimhin is also still wolfy, but the thing is that their agenda for wanting to kill Supagoof/BW today makes most sense from a wolf if they have a partner in you/Moonfly. Otherwise why can't they just sit back and let us lynch you/Moonfly and then win?

If it's Wolf!Cao and Town!Moon, my strategy for Day 2 is entirely different. Even if I throw suspicion on Goof, getting through a safe lynch is more important and I look better for it. I back down after you show up saying it was for pressure and I'm happy, then I settle into the Moon wagon.

Supagoof is my best target only if it is Cao/Moon, but even then I would be a Wolf making my Wolf partner incredibly obvious.

---

Vote Count
moonfly7 (2): Taffimai, Supagoof
Supagoof (2): CaoimhinTheCape, moonfly7
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Book Wombat, Saint-Just, flame12
Not Voting: Snowblaze

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Updated vote count:

Vote Count
moonfly7 (2): Taffimai, Supagoof
Supagoof (2): CaoimhinTheCape, moonfly7
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Book Wombat, Saint-Just
Not Voting: Snowblaze, flame12

[moonfly7]

The partners thing is almost exclusively from Cao painting you as extremely town in their own posts, but as seer with a clear wolf I would also be trying to make a normal townie less of a target if only to get rid of the guaranteed wolf.

The way I read Cao we have three options, they are a wolf and need to die, they are the seer and we need to vote goof, they are the fool/screwed by the bastard mechanic, in which case not voting them makes sense but keeping the bad info coming in potentially bites us down the road. The problem is I can't tell if it's my own bias about wolves always claiming roles that's making my gut yell wolf about him. That being said, and having gone over it again, a 2/3 reason to jot vote someone is something I shouldn't ignore on a barely founded hunch. Moving to no vote. for now. Won't be able to check back for about an hour or two and won't be able to check after that till after days end.

Thanks for the clarification there flame.

Where did you rule out Goof/Taff?

Also, for everyone who is not Snowblaze, there's always the chance of Goof/Snow (less likely, I think Snow's posts have looked like Town considering all possibilities today but still there).




Option 2 implies I put myself in this drain/in trouble by pushing against Supagoof for... some reason?

The next viable target is Moonfly - Snow and SJ both voiced suspicions of Moon Day 1 and with this early D2 quote from Snow:



If it's Wolf!Cao and Town!Moon, my strategy for Day 2 is entirely different. Even if I throw suspicion on Goof, getting through a safe lynch is more important and I look better for it. I back down after you show up saying it was for pressure and I'm happy, then I settle into the Moon wagon.

Supagoof is my best target only if it is Cao/Moon, but even then I would be a Wolf making my Wolf partner incredibly obvious.

---

Vote Count
moonfly7 (2): Taffimai, Supagoof
Supagoof (2): CaoimhinTheCape, moonfly7
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Book Wombat, Saint-Just, flame12
Not Voting: Snowblaze

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Updated vote count:

Vote Count
moonfly7 (2): Taffimai, Supagoof
Supagoof (2): CaoimhinTheCape, moonfly7
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Book Wombat, Saint-Just
Not Voting: Snowblaze, flame12

Not liking the 3 way tie as close as we are to the vote count. Things are going to get dicey.

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Also goof is seeming pretty suspicious of Cao, saying he thinks Cao is definitley option 2, IE wolf, but his vote is still on me. Arguing one way while voting another isn't exactly going to help his case.

[Snowblaze]

Supagoof/Taffimai is kind of half-possible imo. Probably haven't made that very clear, but my reason for unpairing them is Taffimai's Supagoof vote day one and not switching despite wanting moonfly/gac wagons.

...I need to try and turn my thoughts on why you'd do this as a wolf into something coherent. I'm doubting myself again.

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Not sure I agree with people feeling pressured to produce content on page 1, but given that nearly everyone has posted, I'm not sure the votes on AV help all that much.

Relevant Caoimhin quote, moonfly.

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Again, biased source, but if Wolf!Cao claims Seer, why does Wolf!Flame vote against me?

EDIT: More specifically, how does flame work as a Wolf with both myself and Supagoof?

Sorry for missing this earlier. I had that because I don't have a strong reason to unpair flame with either of you. That is actually a good point for why you might not be partnered with flame...

...now my gut is telling me you could be town. But I still don't want to vote Supagoof.

I just don't know.

[moonfly7]

Supagoof/Taffimai is kind of half-possible imo. Probably haven't made that very clear, but my reason for unpairing them is Taffimai's Supagoof vote day one and not switching despite wanting moonfly/gac wagons.

...I need to try and turn my thoughts on why you'd do this as a wolf into something coherent. I'm doubting myself again.

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Relevant Caoimhin quote, moonfly.

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Sorry for missing this earlier. I had that because I don't have a strong reason to unpair flame with either of you. That is actually a good point for why you might not be partnered with flame...

...now my gut is telling me you could be town. But I still don't want to vote Supagoof.

I just don't know.

That's the quote? Him saying he doesn't like pushing for content and then adding that the AV votes don't really help? That's what made you think we could be partnered wolves?

I give you that by day 2 Cao has actively said he doesn't see me as a lynch right now, and if your comments had started because of that it would make sense. But the fact that you felt that way day 1 because of that comment is kind of ridiculous. In the same statement that he vaguely defends me, he also actively says that the AV posting doesn't help. Something both myself and Gac had participated in.
A single vague comment about not liking post pressuring is what made you decide that if there was a wolf team it was probably us?

I get that stuff has happened since then that might influence that opinion. But still man, the thing that sparked it was pretty flimsy.

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Also, people need to really start trying to Know soon, we've got about 6 hours till votes are counted. If we want to get anything from today we're going to need to break the tie at some point.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

...now my gut is telling me you could be town. But I still don't want to vote Supagoof.

I just don't know.

Alright, let's work through the options. We're at 8 total players, with the splits being:

7/1
Super unlikely. We have plenty of room for error but I don't think we start 1v9.

6/2
That's the scenario I would bet on, especially if the bastard mechanic is related to my power.

5/3
We're at MyLo and we need to get it now. If the bastard mechanic messes with my results, we've already lost. I could see this if the bastard mechanic hampers their ability to kill.

---

1a) Lynch Wolf!Cao
There's one less Wolf. Moonfly is very likely the partner, based on unpairings. If there is somehow 3 Wolves, you deal with that when the time comes.

Obviously good for town, probably game.

1b) Lynch Town!Cao
I flip Spiritualist and you can take my Night Action to investigate Goof as what I genuinely did, but there's no guarantee of knowing if the bastard element relates to my results. Townie dies at Night, Goof is lynched tomorrow. Depending on if I'm a reliable Seer, Town gets 1 Wolf or probably loses.

Somewhat useful for town if my accuracy is revealed, terrible if I don't get accurate results and that's not obvious from my flip.

2a) Lynch Wolf!Goof
There's one less Wolf. I'm revealed as a True Seer (accurate results) and very likely die at Night. Probably start looking into Flame, but it's back to a normal game.

Good for Town.

2b) Lynch Town!Goof
We lose a Townie now and one at Night. I guaranteed make it through the Night and am lynched tomorrow. Wolf!Cao means you have the likely team of Cao/Moon, Town!Cao is basically a loss.

Nothing lost if I'm Wolf, game over with mislynch here and tomorrow.

3a) Lynch Wolf!Moonfly
Lose a Wolf, likely look to me as the lynch tomorrow. I deliver you a new result and either flip Wolf (for either a win or down to 1 Wolf) or Town (with 2 Seer results given).

Extra Seer result is nice, I suppose? But depending on my flip, you don't know if the results are necessarily accurate.

3b) Lynch Town!Moonfly
Lose town. Possibly lose me as Seer overnight, follow up with a Goof vote tomorrow.

Lose the Seer and have a mislynch before getting a Wolf. Once again have the problem of my results possibly being accurate.

4) Lynch No One
Lose a Townie overnight. I probably make it through until tomorrow to get us right back to the same place we are now, minus one town. Target of the NK just induces WIFOM.

We make the same decision with one less player. Extra Seer result, if we can trust it/you can trust me.

5) Lynch Anyone Else
We lynch based on scumhunting, but I don't see how we can easily pick a new target in a few hours. If my results are accurate, we're ignoring 1 Wolf in [SupaGoof/Cao] and have bad odds. We have the same dilemma come tomorrow, down 1 or 2 Townies.

Nah, not this.

---

Knowing the bastard mechanic is key, and we won't know what it is. If it's related to how the Mafia can kill (based on a weird Libro kill) then my instinct is that there's 3 Mafia to make up for that. If it's related to my investigations, then there's probably 2 Mafia but a mislynch of me and Goof brings us down to 2/2 (factoring in a kill each night).

---

TL;DR Lynching outside of Cao/Goof/Moon almost never works. Lynching No One loses us a Townie and gets us another Seer result. But if you want another Seer result, you're basically saying you trust me anyway. I don't see Moon lynch as any more helpful than me or Goof.

From a Neutral standpoint, I can't logic out a best solution. From my standpoint, lynching Goof lets us know if the bastard mechanic is related to my powers or not.

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Quick Addition - if I am a Town!Fool (wrong results) then the best late move is to No Lynch. But by doing that you're betting both myself and Supagoof are Town, and assuming that the bastard mechanic is related to me. We do the opposite of whatever info I get at Night if I survive, based on a who lot of assumptions.

[Snowblaze]

@moonfly yeah, that one piece of evidence isn't exactly concrete proof. But my case wasn't based on thinking you were partners, I wolfread both of you individually and that just made things fit together.

[moonfly7]

@moonfly yeah, that one piece of evidence isn't exactly concrete proof. But my case wasn't based on thinking you were partners, I wolfread both of you individually and that just made things fit together.

Fair enough. Thanks for clarifying.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Day Two Ends In ~48 Hours

[/B]

Just doing a timecheck, by my count we have 2 hours left.

If anyone has a big brain play to suggests, I might go for it. But right now the best move for me is lynching Goof to see if I'm Seer or Fool.

[flame12]

Last time i can guarantee I'll be able to post before time is up. Gonna say something strange, but I think based off Caos reads above, best vote order is goof and then me depending on if anything new shows up. I'm town, but I'm not a power role, so taking me out at least means we don't accidentally kill any hidden roles helping us out. Better a normal townie rather than a healer or something. Gives a better final day if Caos right.

Supagoof

[Taffimai]

So I’ve redone my post from this morning. Had to cut out the part where I ask Caoimhin to vote Moonfly with me, arguing that if Moonfly is town, it clears me from the allegation that I was protecting them, it would clear Caoimhin from Snow’s accusation because the two to her seemed necessarily linked (see below), and it would clear my suspicions (then) of a Snow/Moonfly partnership based on the fact that Snow strongly suspected Moonfly yet chose to vote Caoimhin instead, then tried to get me off of Moonfly as well.

Spoiler: Posts I’m referencing below

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Ok I have one question I don't want to leave till tomorrow: <snip> does Caoimhin as wolf only make sense to you when paired with Moonfly?

Mainly though, Caoimhin. He pressured me to get off of Supagoof without trying to particularly convince me to vote Gac. It irked me at the time that apparently, a Gac-Moonfly tie was better to him than a Gac-Supagoof tie, which looks very much like a buddy-buddy thing to me. I rejected it at the time because I'm aware of being biased. I'm biased because Caoimhin has suspected me a lot and it feels personal. I mean, I voted for his choice and still he's seeing me as prime lynch material rather than apologising. On top of that, I know I'm biased against players with a particular play style. I suspected Mr. Popo in Love Letter, and Rogan last game. Players who come in strong with the suspicions will just always look wolf to me.

So I need to know: if Moonfly is town, could I be right? Why not?

Sorry for not getting to your question last night. I think Caoimhin and Moonfly do have partner equity - I forgot to mention this in my wall but Caoimhin also soft-defended Moonfly when I first accused them. If Moonfly is town then Caoimhin is also still wolfy, but the thing is that their agenda for wanting to kill Supagoof/BW today makes most sense from a wolf if they have a partner in you/Moonfly. Otherwise why can't they just sit back and let us lynch you/Moonfly and then win?

...yeah, based on that I don't think I'm immediately going after Caoimhin on a Moonfly townflip. Unless I think you/Caoimhin is the team which atm I don't.

I don't really agree with your point on Caoimhin, Taffimai. While I definitely would have liked you to vote Moonfly yesterday that post was just intended to point out a contradiction between your logic and actions.

moonfly7/x
I've talked about Caoimhin as a moonfly partner already. Very much plausible.

Taffimai requires bussing, but I can construct a plausible world in which she sees that I'm going after the exact team late day one/early night one and decides to bus because a chance of solo endgaming is better than looking like moonfly's partner and being lynched for such. She's probably setting up to go after Caoimhin tomorrow after a moonfly flip, and then hope the towncred gets her through LyLo.

Would it help if I tried a bit harder to put my Moonfly suspicion into words?

The first quote was the one I mentioned originally. No-one was saying anything about "hey, moonfly, why aren't you making an actual vote yet?" so the unprompted remark suggests that moonfly is worried about looking suspicious.

The second was the one I called hedgy about gac. Looking at it when I'm actually awake and functioning it isn't as bad as I first thought, but it still says "I have no opinion on gac" and then "I might vote gac because I don't like their explanation" which is a contradiction.

My only other point was the meta one about them being different to UPick. I don't want to find quotes for that because it's a pain but I will if you really want me to.

It's hardly perfect but it's better than nothing given the quiet day one we had.

Can I get a better idea of your reads? I know you think one of me/Caoimhin is a wolf, but there's (probably) more than one wolf, so who do you think the other one is/others are? Do you think Caoimhin could be trying to defend a partner in moonfly/Taffimai with their focus on the inactives?

The gazebo thing is entertaining, thanks for linking it.

CaoimhinTheCape because they just reminded me I haven’t voted yet and I want to see where it goes.

(Taffimai, you have permission to vote Caoimhin without me killing you with fire for not voting moonfly. That was mostly exaggeration anyway.)

Unlikely wolf pairs
Supagoof/CaoimhinTheCape
Supagoof/Book Wombat
Supagoof/Saint-Just
Supagoof/moonfly7
CaoimhinTheCape/Book Wombat

Off a fairly-surface-level read, since as predicted my motivation is running out. Looks good for Supagoof!

Some stuff bolded for emphasis.

Recap: Snow last night declared that the wolves were Moonfly and Caoimhin. I ask whether she still thinks Caoimhin is a wolf if Moonfly flips town, because I suspect Caoimhin/Supagoof. She answers no, unless I'm the third wolf. She accuses me of only asking that to set up a Caoimhin mislynch tomorrow. She doubles down on her Moonfly accusations. Then, she votes Caoimhin instead, and invites me to do the same. She then explicitly uncouples Caoimhin and Supagoof, my only reason for suspecting Caoimhin.

It is clear that Snow was correct about uncoupling Caoimhin and Supagoof, but the whole thing is making my head spin.

@Snow Why did you think I would want to vote Caoimhin after you repeatedly discredited my only reason for suspecting him at the time? Why did you not vote Moonfly, which would've cleared Caoimhin and me both? Less accusatory: knowing your S/C uncoupling was correct, could you explain why you uncoupled Caoimhin and Wombat? What tells you Caoimhin's suspicions against Wombat weren't just distancing?

@Caoimhin Assuming you're town and knowing that you're probably going to die either to the lynch or tonight, who do you think is Supagoof's partner? Wombat? Snow? Me? Anybody else?

@Everybody else I want your feedback on the following pairings:

Caoimhin/Snow This means her behaviour today was distancing gone wrong, and she's now sitting on her vote to see whether Moonfly or Supagoof have the better chance to get her partner off.
Moonfly/Snow This requires her to have been bussing yesterday after setting up the successful Gac wagon as a distancing manoeuvre and explains why she wanted me off of Moonfly before that gained traction.
Supagoof/Snow She started the wagon on Caoimhin after he voted Supagoof but before he backed it up with his claim, then probably unvoted after to avoid exactly this.

For the record there are several other good pairings out there that I'm willing to believe in (including Supagoof/Wombat and Caoimhin/Wombat), but Snow covered those in her posts and you've had time to consider them. Snow does not necessarily have to be a wolf to me, but there's enough here that the possibility needs to be discussed.

Now let's see if this is within posting limits... Also this thread has moved a LOT since I started and now I still haven't covered everything I wanted to

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Forgot to put my vote where my mouth is, there have been no other claims, so I want to test that Caoimhin isn't fake claiming.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

@Caoimhin Assuming you're town and knowing that you're probably going to die either to the lynch or tonight, who do you think is Supagoof's partner? Wombat? Snow? Me? Anybody else?

@Everybody else I want your feedback on the following pairings:

Caoimhin/Snow This means her behaviour today was distancing gone wrong, and she's now sitting on her vote to see whether Moonfly or Supagoof have the better chance to get her partner off.
Moonfly/Snow This requires her to have been bussing yesterday after setting up the successful Gac wagon as a distancing manoeuvre and explains why she wanted me off of Moonfly before that gained traction.
Supagoof/Snow She started the wagon on Caoimhin after he voted Supagoof but before he backed it up with his claim, then probably unvoted after to avoid exactly this.

Until a few minutes ago, I would have said it was Supagoof/flame. flame's recent vote on Supagoof changes things, but that could be bussing now that the tide has turned.

Book Wombat - maybe. Voting me without giving much of a reason could be Supagoof's partner taking out a threat.
moonfly7 - no. Has stayed on Goof all day. Could be a good bussing play but I doubt it.
Saint-Just - D1 makes this unlikely. SJ still votes me over Supagoof, but I find that reasonable.
Snowblaze - had Snow stayed on me, yes. Snow's posts today seem genuine Town trying to figure it out. If she's just putting on a show while others decide she's doing a good job.
Taffimai - maybe? Your Day 1 makes me feel like it's not you.

Overall: flame or Book >>>>>> Taff >> Snow >> SJ >>>>>> Moon
I strongly prefer flame or Book to any of the others. Middle group involves some distancing. Moon feels extremely unlikely.


Moon/Snow is a weird one that I don't really see. It's not likely enough to concern me right now and frankly if that's the Wolf pair good for them.

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Vote Count
moonfly7 (2): Taffimai, Supagoof
Supagoof (3): CaoimhinTheCape, moonfly7, flame12
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Book Wombat, Saint-Just
Not Voting: Snowblaze

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Vote Count
moonfly7 (1): Supagoof
Supagoof (3): CaoimhinTheCape, moonfly7, flame12
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Book Wombat, Saint-Just, Taffimai
Not Voting: Snowblaze

[Taffimai]

@Taffimai

I'm afraid I'm coming down with something, so may not be able to contribute as much as I did, but I have a question about previous games: would the fool be revealed in the flip to be a fool? Mafiascum wiki says they should, but obviously the general understanding of what is normal differs from place to place.

Also I should note that given what you say I should retract my statement "I am willing to bet my life and my victory on an absence of fake seer/fool mechanic".

In AV's previous games, they were only revealed after both were dead. So the fool would reveal as seeer until the actual seeer died and then people were told which was which.

Also: would fool in AV version get inverse readings or truly random stuff, like a coin toss?

Both have happened on these forums, but I don’t remember clearly whether the random one was in one of AV’s games.

Sorry for ignoring these for so long, btw.

[moonfly7]

When does day 2 end?

[AvatarVecna]

When does day 2 end?

Realistically, anytime between "right now" and "~5 hours from now" depending on when I can be bothered to end it. I don't tend to be as consistent about the End Of Phase as some other narrators.

[Snowblaze]

@Snow Why did you think I would want to vote Caoimhin after you repeatedly discredited my only reason for suspecting him at the time? Why did you not vote Moonfly, which would've cleared Caoimhin and me both? Less accusatory: knowing your S/C uncoupling was correct, could you explain why you uncoupled Caoimhin and Wombat? What tells you Caoimhin's suspicions against Wombat weren't just distancing?

I registered that you were suspicious of Caoimhin so I assumed you'd be willing to vote them. I wasn't aware that I was "repeatedly discrediting your only reason" at the time. I'll reread those interactions, probably tomorrow atp.

I don't vote people because of who they'll clear if they flip town, I vote people because I think they're wolves. I was more convinced on moonfly than Caoimhin night one but that changed towards being more suspicious of Caoimhin. Also quite a few people were suspicious of them earlier today so I wanted to see if the wagon would gain momentum.

The Caoimhin/BW thing could have been distancing, especially once Caoimhin focused more on Supagoof than BW. I was more unpairing them based on BW'S Caoimhin vote.

And *sigh* CaoimhinTheCape. I don't think I'm going to have confidence in any option here but I want to believe I haven't been completely wrong about everything. Very sorry if I am.

[Taffimai]

Both have happened on these forums, but I don’t remember clearly whether the random one was in one of AV’s games.

@Saint-Just Found it, it was AV's Shadowrun Edition.

Loyal

You're a clever one...but not as clever as you think. The assassins know your methods, and have hired someone to mess with your methods of gathering information.

You are told you are the Streetwise runner.

During the night phase, you may select one player to investigate; your investigation will return a randomly determined loyalty role that is presented as if it was true. Investigating the same player additional times does not result in contradictory information: if you re-select a player for investigation, you will receive the same result you receive the first time. If you investigate the Streetwise runner, you will always see them as the Clueless.

[Book Wombat]

Going back to the first.
Supagoof.

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On second thoughts back to CaoimhinTheCape, I dunno.

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I am in confuuuuuusion.
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