Afterlife 2

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Alright, assuming this is it for me, hopefully the full details of my role will be shown (if I'm false Seer).

Assuming I'm a true Seer, get Goof tomorrow and I'd look at BW first (for lack of reason for voting me). SJ/Taff/Snow could be paired with Goof, as those are the votes that confirmed my wagon. flame seems better to me now, after moving. I'm happy to call Moon town.

EDIT: BW is wavering, but if I die, I stand by looking into BW.

If I get always incorrect results, Goof is good. Moonfly is the only wagon that could have been Wolf today, so Taff gets points for being on it early.

Since my claim, all Goof has said is "I know it's not me" which I don't like. So unless my role specifically says otherwise, go Goof tomorrow.

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Book, if you're undecided, I'd ask you to vote Goof but I have nothing to add that hasn't already been said. You're the kingmaker right now, so it's your call I suppose.

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Vote Count
moonfly7 (1): Supagoof
Supagoof (3): CaoimhinTheCape, moonfly7, flame12
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Book Wombat, Saint-Just, Taffimai, Snowblaze

[moonfly7]

I registered that you were suspicious of Caoimhin so I assumed you'd be willing to vote them. I wasn't aware that I was "repeatedly discrediting your only reason" at the time. I'll reread those interactions, probably tomorrow atp.

I don't vote people because of who they'll clear if they flip town, I vote people because I think they're wolves. I was more convinced on moonfly than Caoimhin night one but that changed towards being more suspicious of Caoimhin. Also quite a few people were suspicious of them earlier today so I wanted to see if the wagon would gain momentum.

The Caoimhin/BW thing could have been distancing, especially once Caoimhin focused more on Supagoof than BW. I was more unpairing them based on BW'S Caoimhin vote.

And *sigh* CaoimhinTheCape. I don't think I'm going to have confidence in any option here but I want to believe I haven't been completely wrong about everything. Very sorry if I am.

Going back to the first.
Supagoof.

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On second thoughts back to CaoimhinTheCape, I dunno.

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I am in confuuuuuusion.
N
G

C
R
A
Z
Y

Well, I'm pretty confident we've just doomed our seer. Unless of course Cao turns out to be the fool, but I was already suspicious of goof before his read, and I think it's pretty solid.

[AvatarVecna]

Supagoof: CaoimhinTheCape, Moonfly7
Moonfly7: Supagoof
CaoimhinTheCape: Saint-Just, flame12, Taffimai, Snowblaze, Book Wombat

End Of Day Two

"This one's a saboteur!"

"I am not, I'm a seer, a spiritualist! I'm in tune with the cosmos, and I've already found one of the people who killed us!"

"A hippie! Even worse!"

CaoimhinTheCape has been lynched. They were the Spiritualist.

You are the Spiritualist. Now that you're more in tune with the flow of the world than ever before, you're able to sniff out bad intentions like a bloodhound.

During the Night Phase, select one player. You learn whether they are a saboteur or not.

Night Two Ends In ~24 Hours

[Book Wombat]

Well damnit.

[flame12]

So given our spiritualist confirmed goof with their dying breath, we either have the bastard mechanic messing it up or we have one if our wolves.

[moonfly7]

Well, that's not good. I hope that by this point we can all agree to vote goof tomorrow?

[Taffimai]

Well, that's not good. I hope that by this point we can all agree to vote goof tomorrow?

Yes I'm afraid it's going to be a very uneventful day voting-wise. And five people pouring over Supagoof's 7 meagre posts in the hopes of ferretting out their partner... maybe a farewell song?

I'm going to bed.

[Snowblaze]

Welp, sorry. I'll try and make it up to you by finding Supagoof's partner.

Step one: reread the entire game with wolf!Supagoof in mind
Step two: analyse all interactions and vote movements
Step three: ???
Step four: catch wolves

[Supagoof]

Son of a...crud. I missed a lot of this. I would have changed my vote to myself, or at least got more information available to everyone.

So given our spiritualist confirmed goof with their dying breath, we either have the bastard mechanic messing it up or we have one if our wolves.

This, seriously this. I would have definitely let you all know that the bastard mechanics are at play here. I wonder if the mechanics are meant to keep us from pairing.

Here you are.

You am the Protectoriate. To the best of your knowledge, you were the only one shutting down the meltdown in the plant, you weren't getting any help to fix it. And yet, things went wrong you had nothing to stop it with. There is something else going on, and you need to save the others!

During the Night Phase, select one player (via PMing me). This is your vote for who will be the protected. At the end of the night; if that player is attacked, that person will be saved. Additionally, at the end of the night, the others will be informed on if the person you saved was protected or not.

You win if all saboteurs are eliminated, or if mechanical knowledge possessed by living non-saboteurs would make this inevitable.

So there's that.

Now that it's out there, c'mon wolves - let's play guess who I'm baning tonight! Will I hold my shield over at who you might attack? Would I hold it over myself? You may get a shot at me, just saying.

[Taffimai]

Nice try. I doubt AV put grammatical errors in her role descriptions though.

Son of a...crud. I missed a lot of this. I would have changed my vote to myself, or at least got more information available to everyone.

I'll admit I read a lot more into you leaving your vote on Moonfly than I apparently should have. Those last three votes from myself, Snow and Wombat were very late in the day, and you not even changing to save yourself is part of what convinced me to vote the way I did. On the off chance that that was your plan, well played.

[moonfly7]

Son of a...crud. I missed a lot of this. I would have changed my vote to myself, or at least got more information available to everyone.

This, seriously this. I would have definitely let you all know that the bastard mechanics are at play here. I wonder if the mechanics are meant to keep us from pairing.

Here you are.
So there's that.

Now that it's out there, c'mon wolves - let's play guess who I'm baning tonight! Will I hold my shield over at who you might attack? Would I hold it over myself? You may get a shot at me, just saying.

Not getting out of this that easily my friend, I honestly believe you failed to change your vote on accident, but I'm sticking to my guns on this one. I already suspected you because of that way to certain attack from before, and then a seer called you out. It's going to take more than an easily faked role right up for me to believe that. more accurately, it'll probably take you being nightkilled or you being lynched and flipping town to convince me.

[AvatarVecna]

End Of Night Two

That night, the investigators rejoiced, for they had located evidence convicting one of the workers posthumously. Of course, then the spirit was brutally exorcised.

moonfly7 was killed. They were a Lone Saboteur.

You are the Lone Saboteur. To the best of your knowledge, you were the only saboteur active in the plant, you weren't conspiring with anybody. And yet, things went wrong you had nothing to do with? There's something going on, and you need to find the others - not so you can have them exorcised, but so you can all cover for each other properly when these ghost-busters show up!

During the Night Phase, select one player (via PMing me). This is your vote for who will be the faction night-kill. At the end of the night, all votes will be counted; if anybody got a majority of votes, that person will be eliminated. Additionally, at the end of the night, you will be informed on if the person you voted for was a saboteur or not.

You win if all non-saboteurs are eliminated, or if mechanical knowledge possessed by living saboteurs would make this inevitable.

Day Three Ends In ~48 Hours

[Supagoof]

Curious.

Let's see what Saint-Justthinks on that, shall we?

[Taffimai]

As for the bastard mechanic:
Maybe the wolves are all working on their own, each with their own kill ability? That would mean it's likely only 2 wolves just because even 2 possible kills a night is a lot.
Like it not though, just spitballing.

I think we've found our bastard mechanic. But this on top of a seeer seems too harsh, so now I need to reevaluate the possibility of Caoimhin really being a fool.

Well, that's not good. I hope that by this point we can all agree to vote goof tomorrow?

Crap crap crap crap crap crap crap.

At least we've bought ourselves another mislynch.

[Book Wombat]

Back to the future Supagoof?

[Saint-Just]

First of all: AV, you magnificent bastard!

Ok, let's see. First a quote from the recruitment thread

Narrator confirmation of things will be limited, but the narrator will not lie to you; if you are told a thing by the narrator (such as a death reveal, or an answer on a power interaction), it will be the truth.

So purely on mechanical side there is no reason to assume that seer was fake, and therefore Supagoof is a wolf. Anyone construing worlds in which he isn't first must construe the world in which Caoimhin is not a true seer.

Now comes harder stuff: we must count on 3 wolves existing. In 2 wolves the game is already decided. I think all the wolves were Lone on day 1. Without that restriction the bastard mechanic wouldn't activate until one of the pair was killed which may be a whole game, which would make it not-a-bastard game. They may have established some means of private communications later. Would people in the local meta write PMs (like our bastardly host did in Upick 2) or most people don't do that? In any case with Supagoof out of equation it probably turns into normal 3/1 but with slightly more info than usual, because wolves had to establish themselves as wolves.

Now comes really hard stuff which may decide literally everything: I am too good of a wolfread

@Taffimai and everyone

Regarding the possibility of uncoordinated wolves: I read somewhere about an option where wolves must vote blindly and only if they have some sort of majority they can kill successfully; also included the option where unsuccessful attacks (wolf votes which failed to reach majority) were reported providing more info to both sides

I would prefer to do the explanation without pointing fingers at anyone, but that would just make my further deductions harder to accept. So, in chronological order

And to get some conversation going: what does everybody think the bastard mechanic is going to be this game? Before AV told us that we're not using QuickTopics I thought it would be a lone wolf because the "you can see wolf chat but not post in it" mechanic can't be done in Discord afaik. Right now I'm leaning towards "there are no wolves, you're all villagers" but that needs some sort of night voting mechanic because I don't think AV would do the very thing Rogan suggested in the recruitment thread (too obvious).

Talks about lone wolves, night votes

As for the bastard mechanic:
Maybe the wolves are all working on their own, each with their own kill ability? That would mean it's likely only 2 wolves just because even 2 possible kills a night is a lot.
Like it not though, just spitballing.

Talks about lone wolves

I'm taking that second quote completely out of context, but this combo is hilarious and I hope to see it sometime. Night one, BAM! half the players dead

Taffimai combines two quotes from moonfly and Sugapoof and answers with that.

And only after all of that I make my guess.

What's my explanation for my guess? Well, just that lucky guess based on extensive reading of stuff that has been done in the past. I was relatively new and was trying to discuss mechanics and banter. Seems like it was possible to guess too well, sadly.

Taffimai's actions can be explained as a town actions, but so can be mine.

[flame12]

Supagoof

Not sure who the partner could be but for now I'm confident in this vote, and that buys some time for more analysis.

[Snowblaze]

I wasn't completely wrong on everything! :D

...and I can't even claim any towncred now.

Oh well. Let's kill Supagoof. And hope there isn't a third wolf.

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Also if anyone needs more convincing than "the Seer we murdered said so" just look at his role PM and compare it to moonfly's.

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I need to throw my reads in the bin and start again, because unpairing analysis clearly isn't going to work.

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@AV am I right in assuming a 50/50 split of wolves' votes wouldn't count as a majority for anyone?

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Also I'm pretty sure the bastard mechanic includes a means for killing someone if wolves disagree. It's hard to believe wolves had a majority in favour of killing Libro night one.

[Saint-Just]

@AV am I right in assuming a 50/50 split of wolves' votes wouldn't count as a majority for anyone?

Before this day there was no option for 50/50 to occur. After this day there will be only one wolf.

Also I'm pretty sure the bastard mechanic includes a means for killing someone if wolves disagree. It's hard to believe wolves had a majority in favour of killing Libro night one.

It is possible that it is the same mechanic as town (random) but don't forget they have the same vote with which they both check and kill. Precise wording "if anybody got a majority of votes, that person will be eliminated. Additionally, at the end of the night, you will be informed on if the person you voted for was a saboteur or not." makes me think that it is a strict majority when there are three - they either get three reads day one or at least one kill. It's not too unlikely that they wanted to check Libro for wolfiness because connecting with him later would be harder.

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"Strict majority when there are three" means it is very, very likely that 2 out of 3 need to agree yo kill. I am not so sure that both need to agree to kill when there are two but it is till likely.

[Snowblaze]

Before this day there was no option for 50/50 to occur. After this day there will be only one wolf.

If the game started with two wolves there would be. Though that's a lot less likely now.

[Saint-Just]

We must count on the third wolf. It is mechanically impossible for three wolves not to exist, unless we have a SK or vigilante. The only way wolves could kill one of theirs (which I presume what actually happened) is that they both use their ability on the same person and then that person is killed, otherwise each read attempt would mean a chance of death for the wolf. It also means that two votes from two wolves is no kill and two reads, not one kill and one read, again, too dangerous. Note that the wolf role doesn't say anything like "killed unless that person is a saboteur". No, straight up majority -> killed.

I don't believe that there is a vigilante, 2 out of 10 already feels iffy on the "almost no power roles" front, and don't forget that for a vig kill to be the only one you need either wolves missing their nightkill (unlikely) or some sort of doc or bulletproof being in the game (even less likely). Or at least some wolves purposefully not voting (absolutely crazy gambit especially when they have no communication).

[Taffimai]

Well since everybody has posted and nobody has claimed to be the hero responsible for killing Moonfly, his death really was the result of enemy fire (I don't believe in a vig/SK either). That also means that Moonfly was not in communication with either of the other two, because then they would've outvoted the third one and he wouldn't have died. Therefore, Moonfly wanting to kill Supagoof means nothing.

I have suspicions about the third wolf, but we shouldn't discuss those till tomorrow. Make the wolf give us more information first.

[AvatarVecna]

I wasn't completely wrong on everything! :D

...and I can't even claim any towncred now.

Oh well. Let's kill Supagoof. And hope there isn't a third wolf.

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Also if anyone needs more convincing than "the Seer we murdered said so" just look at his role PM and compare it to moonfly's.

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I need to throw my reads in the bin and start again, because unpairing analysis clearly isn't going to work.

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@AV am I right in assuming a 50/50 split of wolves' votes wouldn't count as a majority for anyone?

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Also I'm pretty sure the bastard mechanic includes a means for killing someone if wolves disagree. It's hard to believe wolves had a majority in favour of killing Libro night one.

50/50 split would not count as majority, no.

[Snowblaze]

50/50 split would not count as majority, no.

Cool, thanks. That more or less proves there's three wolves.

[Supagoof]

Putting this out there....since I'm going bah-bye. Might be useful to my fellow Saboteurs

Wolves - I think if two of us find another, that may cause the kill at night to be for one found. I had found Moonfly night 1. I found another of you last night.

Either that - or someone has the ability to kill wolves.

And I suspect there are more of us that originally thought.

[AvatarVecna]

Saint-Just: Supagoof
Supagoof: Book Wombat, Saint-Just, flame12, Snowblaze, Taffimai

End Of Day Three

After what happened with the spiritualist's innocence, there was no question of who was going down, only how guilty they were. As it happened, this particular example of mob justice turned out to be properly aimed.

Supagoof was lynched. They were the Lone Saboteur.

Night Three Ends In ~24 Hours

[Saint-Just]

A show of hands, please. I believe Goof's implication of two more wolves to be nothing but a scum fearmongering. If there are two wolves now then the game can only be won by their mistakes, not by a perfect play on part of the town. So, anybody here believes in two more wolves?

Additionally: I read the Lone Saboteur role as requiring to kill ("select", not "you can select"), but maybe you can argue otherwise based on "majority of votes". The fact that it is mandatory to vote may or may not be useful.

[Snowblaze]

I really hope there aren't two wolves, because we're screwed if so. As such, working on the assumption that there's precisely one wolf left alive.

Which also confirms that there's some kind of kill which goes through if wolves don't have majority. (Admittedly I'm relying on the honesty of a dead wolf here, but I did suspect that anyway.)

So. What kind of kill would target Libro night one and moonfly night two?

[Saint-Just]

Which also confirms that there's some kind of kill which goes through if wolves don't have majority. (Admittedly I'm relying on the honesty of a dead wolf here, but I did suspect that anyway.)

So. What kind of kill would target Libro night one and moonfly night two?

Which also confirms that there's some kind of kill which goes through if wolves don't have majority. (Admittedly I'm relying on the honesty of a dead wolf here, but I did suspect that anyway.)

So. What kind of kill would target Libro night one and moonfly night two?

Highly unlikely. Again, I may have said it better, but (possibly) mandatory part is "cast the votes", the part about killing explicitly says "if", and when there is an "if" condition but not "else" condition then usually nothing happens when "if" condition is not satisfied. I already stated my position: Libro was a quite decent move: with one vote they know about Libro's wolfiness, with two they eliminate town (and while I doubt the possibility of killing a wolf was planned imagine what would happen if Night 1 only a wolf was killed: we would have tied our brains into pretzels imagining the possibilities). Or maybe wolves failed to communicate effectively, it works out either way. Moonfly meanwhile was most likely a slip outright: they either failed to read the roles thoroughly and thought wolves were immune to a nightkill, or again failed to coordinate (one vote on Moon would be quite sensible thing, especially if they were not sure who is who). I do not think sacrificing her intentionally this way instead of in a lynch would be useful.

[Saint-Just]

@AvatarVecna Is it possible that wolves received some information from you pre-day1 beyond what is contained within the role revealed to us?

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Also why it is a separate post?