Yu-Gi-Oh! GX: Werewolf!

[Rogan]

Hi, friends (and werewolves in our midst)! I haven't played by post before, but I have played in-person basic Mafia and one-night werewolf, and I followed the Love Letter Mafia game a couple months ago. Wow you guys are in-depth with your readings of each others' readings! I was going to just follow this game too but then a spot opened up so I thought I might as well try playing. I have read the whole thread but only passively so I don't have a vote yet and I don't like voting random. Tomorrow (or technically today, depending on time zone) is Christmas, so we'll see when I get time to get a better read. Merry Christmas!!!

Welcome to the game!
I hope you will like forum mafia, which is quite a bit different from live play. But since you have read Love Letter, you know that much.
If you have questions which might help you come to a read, feel free to ask them.
I intend to check this thread from time to time so I can react to questions or big reveals, but otherwise I won't do much and instead spend some time with the family.

I'll personally go after anyone who tries to push JNinja/SJ slot over today.

Also Merry Christmas from the future.

Have fun y'all nerds.

That's something I can get behind. Doesn't chance anything, since I'm already on Taffi.

Morning all, and Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays/*insert seasonal greeting of choice here*! I'm feeling better but probably won't do too much wolf-hunting on Christmas Day.

Rogan, I think Taffimai is a wolf. My confidence is low but not completely non-existent, which is better than anything else I have.

Welcome, JNinja!

Merry Christmas /Seasonal Greetings to all of you from my side as well!

Snow, I'm glad you are feeling better.
Thanks for the answer about Taffi. I guess, low confidence is natural for day 1. Especially at this time of the year, where the general energy for the game is low.

[Taffimai]

I am really sorry, most likely I would not be able to participate meaningfully. IRL things have become very difficult. Especially in such a power-heavy game I wouldn't be able to track everything to a sufficient standard; I also have no idea how to use my power meaningfully (I've counted on studying it after the game started, but I have no options now). I propose lynching me, though if I survive I will try my best, though it's unlikely to be any good.

Saint-Just

Take care, and don't worry about it, RL happens to all of us. Hope to see you again in one of the next games!

Hi, friends (and werewolves in our midst)! I haven't played by post before, but I have played in-person basic Mafia and one-night werewolf, and I followed the Love Letter Mafia game a couple months ago. Wow you guys are in-depth with your readings of each others' readings! I was going to just follow this game too but then a spot opened up so I thought I might as well try playing. I have read the whole thread but only passively so I don't have a vote yet and I don't like voting random. Tomorrow (or technically today, depending on time zone) is Christmas, so we'll see when I get time to get a better read. Merry Christmas!!!

Welcome! If you do get the time, it would really help me if you could go through the thread and find 3 statements that you agree with, and 3 that you disagree with, with maybe some comments please?

That kind of ties into one of my main concerns about Taffimai, which is that she's criticising the way I play without actually explaining why it makes me a wolf.

That would be because I am neither voting for you nor advocating for you to be lynched today. To me your first post looks like stepping out in front of the crowd going “Look at me, I’m doing a sus thing! But I’m telling you it’s a sus thing so I can’t possibly be a wolf, right? Right?” But I’m aware that I have a bias when it comes to you (and you have done similar things before), so I asked for a second opinion. Batcat’s opinion boils down to “meh”, and after that this should have been a non-event that died a lonely death at the back of my mind, but other people have kept poking at it.

Spoiler: The entire conversation, isolated

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Present, town and OMGUSing CaoimhinTheCape.

I need to actually read the setup and the OP now.

Also I've realised it's a bit unfair for me to be voting Caoimhin after I got them killed in the last two games. So Taffimai for not putting me out of my misery in Afterlife.

@Batcat Can I have your opinion on Snow's Caoimhin vote? I don't like it. She has this thing with "I'm going to do something many people think is sus and I'll point it out that it's sus while I'm at it" and I really wish she would stop doing that. On the one hand, there were plenty of other random votes possible so why. On the other hand I was expecting her to vote for me (right down to the formulation of her reasoning for it) so maybe the only reason it's pinging me is that it's subverting my expectations.

Tough to say. I didn't think it was suspicious but then I've never been great at reading Snow. Worth keeping in mind, I suppose.

What do you make of me changing to vote for you?

Also I don't really get what you mean by that last bit.

I originally had a theory that you always meant to vote me but because Batcat did you didn't want to create a wagon with your random vote and had to come up with something on the fly, but that's nonsense because he came after you. Now I'm thinking pressure?

Assuming "that last bit" is this: "the only reason it's pinging me is that it's subverting my expectations". For example, Valmark always votes the first person on the list who hasn't been voted for. He did, which confirms my expectations so that post feels good. Your first post felt off. "Pinging" is a term I've picked up from reading Mafia Universe.

I know this wasn't directed at me, but Bladescape did a random vote/OMGUS on Book immediately before, just didn't call it such. Do you find that one suspicious too? Or just Snow's, since she called it what it was?

No. Personally I think OMGUS is only mildly wolfy, and even less so at the start of the game when you're giving nonsense reasons anyway and your vote is still expected to move. What bothers me about Snow's post is that Snow is hyper-aware of whether her actions look town or wolf. You can see this in her reason for voting me:

And because "starting a counterwagon without admitting to doing so, with pretty weak reasoning".

In her mind 1) all players should always be aware of and care about whether their actions look town or not (because that's how she is herself) and 2) calling out your own suspicious actions somehow makes them better. I strongly disagree with both of those. Wolves care more about looking town than townies do, so lampshading your own actions looks to me like a wolf actively trying to look town. I have come to accept that extreme self-awareness is just a character trait for Snow, but it annoys me. She could've voted anywhere else, but instead she knowingly creates this ambiguity. I don't like it.

About Snow...
I promise I will think about your words again if you die and turn out to be a villager. But right now I tend to think you are a wolf. Besides, independently of that, some people with more experience have read Snow as a villager.
Right now, my impression is, you are a wolf trying to throw some shade at her. It's easy to be paranoid about snow, after all.

Yeah, I... don't really get Taffimai's suspicions of me. If my being hyper-self-aware is just a character trait then it's not suspicious.

I think I'm now officially wolfreading her.

About Snow...

Snow made a post (or a couple) I don't like. She's not my top wolf read. The problem is that my top wolf read is my top wolf read for the same reason I suspected Caoimhin last time, and this game I have no interest in getting the seeer killed.

Is your concern about Taffi a "I don't like this style" or a "This looks like a wolf"?

Rogan, I think Taffimai is a wolf. My confidence is low but not completely non-existent, which is better than anything else I have.

Reread that, pretend it’s two different people, and ask yourself: who’s throwing shade at who here? I would be a hypocrite if I claimed I don’t have a wolf lean on you now, but that’s not because of your opening post. It’s because last game when you were suspicious of me, you engaged with me, asking a lot of probing questions both of me and all the others. Now your posts are all light-hearted jokes or statements about me – and me alone. If you’re not a wolf, then you’re tunnelling hard which seems like a bad overreaction to someone criticising a single one of your posts. I can get some lingering resentment over last game, but still.

Counter to that is that too many others are town reading you to all be fellow wolves, and that I’m seeing more potential wolves than is reasonable for a game this size, so some if not all of them must be wrong.

Updated reads:
Rogan feels towny but my successful reads on them have been threadstate so I'm holding off for rn.

Cao is iffy.

Gac is iffy.

Book's lack of further input is definitely iffy.

I'd vote in Gac/Cao so far.

But I can also leave it where it is.

Also not doing the 3/3 thing.

But I will answer questions that don't require me to comb the thread if ya got em.

This response brought to you by Blade's lazy and procrastinating side.

Ok then Mr. Lazypants, you get to help me get Gac out of the sorting pile. Other than self-preservation, why would I want to vote Gac over Caomhin? To help you, here are all of Gac's posts, without quote tags, so you can quote my post and just highlight the bits that make you hum instead of nodding.

Spoiler

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#26
FOS on SupaGoof for me always (including as I type this (I'm too lazy to check)) forgetting if it's SupaGoof or sugapoof and then trying to butter me up with comments that I'm choosing to interpret as blatant compliments

Batcathat because I'm curious to know if votes prior to the main phase starting count. Bat has posted twice since the start but not voted since the start. Also had at least one vote before the start but none after. So in a sense of evidence (yet), I lean into experimentation

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Ah I see... Snow blaze chose to count as if all votes so far count. Innocent assumption or wolf plot to deprive some of us of votes by helping us think those votes counted? Idk but I've missed this and have had too much chocolate... So paranoia unfold!

#28

Yay, something's happening!

I... don't really get how voting for BCH will help you test whether all votes count. Having said that, there's a much easier test: @Xihirli do votes cast before the official start of the game count?

And it's definitely an innocent assumption. (What do you mean, "I don't believe you"?)

It won't. But also making a big enough stink about it could help people be motivated to recast their votes and get around your potentially evil (or totally innocent) plan!

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I'll revisit my vote once I've read all comments. You know I'm not quick to want to genuinely accuse people day one.

#40

I assumed the preemptive votes would count, but I suppose you might be right. So let's make my Taffimai vote really official.

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Is it just me or does gac's arguments for voting me read a little weird? It's hard to be unbiased since it's about me, so I won't change my own vote, but I'd love to hear what other people think about it.

I'm somewhat biased but I also thought it was a little weird. But idk. I only follow his logic about 60% of the time.

Yes. The reason it's weird is that he's creating a schrödinger's wagon with the pre-start votes while ignoring that until you revoted me we already had one. #alsobiased

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Meaning that the reason given is just fluff.

Also yeah. It was a weak reason which is mainly fluff because I don't have a reason to vote anyone yet.

There isn't really much to go on yet so I'll just randomly vote for someone... Taffimai

If not for the fact that I have never heard of you and therefore assume you are new, I would be voting for you based on that choice. However you have one day of benefit of the doubt because of being new.


Need to be look again and see if I can pick a real vote.

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Also quick, people who read, will I have a better understanding of what's going on if I read the opening post?

Also I should Google my character since I'm unfamiliar with any non Yugi Motto part of the franchise

#45

I'll eventually be wrong on this but...

Snow is town I think.

I'm also leaning that way but also there's that voice inside saying "Just because Snow looks town, doesn't mean they shouldn't be killed. You can't trust them." But I usually tell that part of me to shut up and only occasionally regret it

Also I think down to move my vote to Saint-Just who if I read the last vote for them right is one of if not the only person not to post yet? Better temporary vote than BCH anyways. Will cross that one out later

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Yeah, gac's logic makes No Sense. At least that's normal for them.

Part of me is like "my logic always makes sense". Then I remember this one time I did some fancy math problem and got the right answer really fast. My teacher was impressed and asked me to explain to the class how I solved it. When I explained they looked at me dumbfounded because I had read the problem wrong and therefore nothing I did made any sense and they couldn't figure out how I had gotten the right answer. That is how I sometimes feel in these games.

#52

Eh, technically you townread SK!me in Craziest Idea. But I'll let you off that one since you were a wolf and I was townsiding way too hard.

Also I think SJ is currently lead wagon, @Rogan. Supagoof, Taffimai and gac are voting for him iirc.

...actually that's a reason to be suspicious of Taffimai.

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I recommend stabbing with a poisoned dagger, Valmark. And then retreating to a safe distance.

Wait, why does this make Taff suspicious?.... I now have a theory but want to check.

Also oh man. Three of us are on Saint? I thought I made two.

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Wait do we have autolynch rules? I'll check

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I skimmed and didn't see any. Anyone know what happens if someone doesn't show up?

#76
Catching up now.

Because from the back you don't see the look on their faces!


Arguably true about Snow, but still if someone looks town it's possibly better to test them out in a way different from votes.

I would say that voting for someone who isn't around at the beginning doesn't yeld much information.

I lost track of how many times the logic I thought perfectly sensible either got me lynched or very nearly got me lynched.

To be fair, I'm not voting Snow but I do have ideas for how to test them. They are dumb though and I'm not sure they will work. I'll let you know after.

(huge post I'm not quoting entirely - Taffimai)

@The players of the first match: Do you remember what kind of roles were left out there?

I remember that either Joey or Kaiba was left out for the logic of "They will think I wouldn't leave this person out so bye bye to that role"

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I'm not going mad.

And because "starting a counterwagon without admitting to doing so, with pretty weak reasoning".

I didn't realize Rogan had been voting. Will revote once I catch up but I crossed out my Saint vote because i saw they showed up.

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I lost things in my previous multi-quote that I had intended to say:



I think I got that impression from a game here (don't remember which one) where Lex-Kat was "an alpha but also had beast powers" and she got to pick her team then, unless my memory is playing tricks on me.



FoS on Gac for making me think he was Rogan by talking in third person and using the same avatar.

Agreed. He is very suspicious.

#78

You know me, I like to be helpful. Especially when I'm a wolf and being helpful does not hurt me, but makes others like me.

I noticed a minor error / problem in my count.
gac, I have two votes from you.
You can see them in the Quotes for Votes spoiler in the post a bit above. on the previous page.

Vote Count:
bladescape(1?): (Book Wombat, before official start)
AvatarVecna(1): AvatarVecna
Taffimai (3): Snowblaze, Seandiggersby, Rogan
Snowblaze(1): CaoimhinTheCape
Book Wombat (1): bladescape
Batcathat(1?): (gac3, not crossed out)
Saint-Just (3): Supagoof, Taffimai, gac3
gac3 (2): Valmark, Batcathat

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I think, Saint is a wagon for not being active yet? Thats not a very good reason. Especially since I think Xi told us she would like to get confirmation from the wolves. Saint wasn't online, therefore Saint is propably town.
This point is a bit Meta, but hey...

So... Goof, Taffi, Gac? Care to change your votes?

I just realized that I thought this was a post from Saint when I skimmed. But also it's a pressure vote. Which they still haven't shown up at all. So its still better to mislynch an inactive townie than to mislynch an active townie.

#80

I know this wasn't directed at me, but Bladescape did a random vote/OMGUS on Book immediately before, just didn't call it such. Do you find that one suspicious too? Or just Snow's, since she called it what it was?




I don't see what's wrong with Sean voting for Taff?

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Gonna move my vote away from Snow, but not sure where. Normally I'd advocate for for voting someone who hasn't posted much (Saint-Just in this case) but it's also the holidays. Being busy in real life is more than reasonable now, so I don't think low posters are necessarily wolves trying to hide.

gac is an option, but their vote reasoning for BCH doesn't seem like a mafia move to me? No one was in danger yet and it would be just as fine to random vote with little explanation.

Gonna move to vote: Taffimai for now, so that my vote is somewhere that matters more.

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(For anyone who doesn't know, OMGUS stands for "Oh My God, yoU Suck" and just means voting the person who voted for you with no other reason.)

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Vote Count:
bladescape (1?): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Taffimai (4): Snowblaze, Sean, Rogan, CaoimhinTheCape
Book Wombat (1): bladescape
BatCatHat (1): gac3
Saint-Just (3): Supagoof, Taffimai, gac3
gac3 (2): Valmark, BatCatHat

Sean was suspicious because they joined the biggest wagon by "randomly voting" and on an experienced player I'd be accusing them of not being random.

Also, is there a reason Taff is suspicious?

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We kinda already did this in our first game.

Taff townread:
I see post
I see thought process
I nod
I hum.
I read new post
I see thought process
I nod

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I would hardly say the read is definitive in any manner but

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Updated reads:
Rogan feels towny but my successful reads on them have been threadstate so I'm holding off for rn.

Cao is iffy.

Gac is iffy.

Book's lack of further input is definitely iffy.

I'd vote in Gac/Cao so far.

But I can also leave it where it is.

"I see thought process" is a completely unfair standard for which to base someones townieness on. I say this strictly because I cannot remember the last time someone followed my thought process.

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Thanks for the answer to my question. Unfortunately, I don't know anything about any Char, so it would not help me figuring things out.

Sorry, but are you mixing up names here?

When I said Rogan, I meant Rogan. When I said saint, I had been skimming before I actually started reading and responding and attributed a certain post to saint. That was not the case though.

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General note: If it wasn't Christmas, I'd be paranoid about AV right now due to not having seen posts that I would have expected to by now. But given many jobs and personal lives get busier for some people during this time, it might be that.

#82
See, the suspicions of Taff (from what I've noticed) seem to center around them starting a wagon without realizing it for a weak reason. That would be wolfy except one thing. I know there is logic for whether or not town benefits from lynching someone who hasn't said anything, but the real question is, what would wolves gain from it? If the idea is that its wolfy because they acted like they weren't starting a wagon when they did, then I don't see why wolves would care about a wagon on Saint, rather than someone like me (who is easy to justify votes for), Snow (who has a dangerous reputation), Book (who shows up just enough to potentially cause problems for wolves) or really anyone else. Saint doesn't seem like a high value target. ((Also I chose my examples based on potential wolf justifications for picking them. I am not trying to imply an active town read on any of them.))

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Ninja'd. Will read the new post and may change my stance.

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The first thing is very much true.

About Taffi:





This post looks very much like a wolf's perspective in my mind. It points out how accepting the deal hurts wolves and how they would not do this. But that's the problem. Even under ideal circumstances (deal accepted), Alexis is not a good role for town.

That's my initial reason for the vote, but I don't think she is acting good under pressure either. I strongly disagree about her current vote and the reasoning for it.



I was the first one to vote in general (for BCH) but it was before the official start.
As I said above, I didn't like some things from Taffi, but it didn't seem good enough to push the leading wagon even more. But then Snow corrected me and told me about some shifting votes, so I placed my vote where my mouth was before so things actually matter.

I hope this clears every confusion about my votes.

I voiced some concerns about AV before, but I don't think missing activity is among them. What kind of post would you expect?

Who is Alexis's brother? I didn't see any role when I skimmed through that seemed to have the same last name. The Truesdale ones have the same last name but I don't even known how her power works because idk who her brother is. Will weigh in after investigating that.

As for AV:
Its one of those things that my subconscious knows better than I do. I'm not sure I can explain it but I'll try. I have played with AV alot (I mean, we all have) but we usually chat privately a lot when there is open quick topics. On top of them being fairly active, they also are on a similar active schedule to me. So I know about when to expect posts from them. As for what they would say exactly, I can't be sure but I know there have been things that I would expect them to have thoughts on that fell during their normal activity window. Also due to being familiar with their activity window, I've noticed that when they don't seem to be following it, its normally either a sign of a wolf AV or an elaborate Town AV plot with lots of private lies. So since it's definitely not the second, I would already be more suspicious, except its two days before christmas. But if this was like June, I'd probably have a vote on them.

#88

I read this, and I immediately refreshed the page to see if you'd go so far as to change your avatar to his new one as well
Which, btw, if very much appreciated Rogan!


@everyone since we're heading into what I expect to be a long period with low activity (but it's more aimed at the people who have weighed in only a little or not at all so I can try to get rid of some of my null reads): I know that it's hard to give wolf/town reads this early on, but could you go through the thread and find 3 statements that you agree with, and 3 that you disagree with, with maybe some comments please?

Lol i didn't even realize Rogan changed. There are. A few people who I identify by their avatar but mostly I try to ignore it.

Spoiler

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It's Nightshroud, one of the wolves.

Ah yes. I assumed from context that it had to be a wolf. I'll double check after posting but Night Shroud sounded like a role that having a townie that could get rid of them by sacrificing their self might be a useful tool. I need to reread their role.

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I guess it depends. Is the destruction=townie power a one time thing? Or is it like each time. I guess it has to be a one time thing right?

#90
Crap. I need to pick someone to vote for.

I just don't know who. It's one of those where nobody stands out except maybe Taff, who I'm starting to understand the logic behind voting them. But voting Taff doesn't add anything at this point since they are currently two above the next highest wagon (if I'm remembering votes right... Actually, am I at 3 votes yet). So I could try to get a competing wagon to draw out more info but my one vote won't do much for that on top of, I don't have a good candidate for a competing wagon. The stress almost makes me want to self vote but I'll think of something. We still have time.

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I'll also look to add 3 agrees and disagrees but probably not until the night of Christmas Eve

#97

Okay, Rogan is town.

Gac3

Could use more pressure rn since no one wants to poke Book with me.

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FTR I refuse to take a stance on SJ but also voting out the person who hasn't shown up around Christmas time is a real feels bad.

Let the blighter at least post.

Or get subbed out I guess.

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Also not doing the 3/3 thing.

But I will answer questions that don't require me to comb the thread if ya got em.

This response brought to you by Blade's lazy and procrastinating side.

Why is Rogan town? I'd like to hear your logic because I missed any big things and Book voted Rogan like two posts beneath this.

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So... Now the top wagons are 3/3/4.

What are tie rules? I really don't want to vote saint now after what they've said. So I might vote Taff... Need to check the OP for vote manipulation powers since that was mentioned.

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Found the vote manipulation power... Interesting... So of that's Taff then voting for them probably wouldn't even save me. If that's not them then Taff is currently up for lynch. So if I die with Taff in the lead, then we lynch Taff tomorrow. Interesting.

#102

Spam that’s no longer there

What? I'm confused what is happening. Are you even playing? I don't see a James on the list.

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I'm a bit ill, so if I become completely incoherent then that's why.

I don't think SJ does that as a wolf unless he's exactly Nightshroud, which is unlikely enough that I feel okay clearing him.

I don't think other players should care more about how they look. And "lampshading suspicious actions makes you look less suspicious" ... kind of true under certain circumstances. But then again I don't think OMGUS as an opening post when there's nothing to go on is that suspicious (yes, I am biased).

That kind of ties into one of my main concerns about Taffimai, which is that she's criticising the way I play without actually explaining why it makes me a wolf.

That being said... there's the Seer read thing. Which I think isn't the kind of route a wolf is likely to go down.

I don't really have any better options, though. I'm not voting SJ, and I don't particularly want to murder gac for weird logic lacking clear wolf motivation. I'm considering Caoimhin but I have a tendency to wolfread their early game regardless of alignment so I'll give them time.

Not doing the 3/3 thing due to feeling awful, but there should be enough content to work with here anyway.

Honestly, the best part of looking Wolfy most of the time, is i gave up a long time ago on caring if what I'm about to say will "look Wolfy"

#111
Not fully caught up but I do have thoughts on Saint Just. Pretty confident they aren't a wolf. Saint's attitude of "I'll do my best if you don't kill me today" is not the attitude you take in that moment as a wolf. That's what you would say privately in the wolf chat, not publically self voting to get yourself out of the game and mess up your other wolves. So replaced or not, they are likely town.

#112

(huge post I'm not quoting entirely - Taffimai)

About voting Taffi, if I recall correctly, the power is "reduce count by two" and the rule for ties is random? Not sure about the last thing...
@Xihirli: Can you give us info about the handling of ties?
So why do you, gac, think it would not save you? Unless votes change again, Taff having 2 votes more than you would turn into a tie, so a 50/50 chance instead of a guaranteed outcome. For bonus points, it would out Taffi regardless of the outcome.
From a Town!Gac perspective, this should be a better outcome, right?

Hmmm... I was working until told otherwise under the assumption of "first person to reach that total dies" because I was thinking that was Xi's usual default but I'm thinking of someone else. So yeah, that makes it feel like the vote could matter.Taff

#115

I might be wrong. Okay, seems like I am wrong:



Your vote still seems to be useful there but it might kill you anyway. In fact I'm really curious about a tie now!

I'm also really curious...

[Valmark]

Rereading those quotes (and the other posts) where did Snow do something suspicious/ claim to have done something suspicious?

[Taffimai]

Rereading those quotes (and the other posts) where did Snow do something suspicious/ claim to have done something suspicious?

I assume you meant to ask Snow where in the quotes I did suspicious things? If not I don't understand your question. What I find suspicious is that her behaviour last game, where she was town and I was a wolf, was completely different from how she's acting now. It has nothing to do with what I quoted.


@Gac I've looked at AV's profile and she's been active several times since her last post here. Does that change your opinion?

[Valmark]

I assume you meant to ask Snow where in the quotes I did suspicious things? If not I don't understand your question. What I find suspicious is that her behaviour last game, where she was town and I was a wolf, was completely different from how she's acting now. It has nothing to do with what I quoted.


@Gac I've looked at AV's profile and she's been active several times since her last post here. Does that change your opinion?

I was referring to when you said that Snowblaze did something suspicious and called it out as such, which I don't see in the posts.

Or did you mean that she tipically does it and this time she didn't?

[Taffimai]

I was referring to when you said that Snowblaze did something suspicious and called it out as such, which I don't see in the posts.

Or did you mean that she tipically does it and this time she didn't?

Ah, I get it. Many players think that revenge voting (OMGUS) is a wolf thing to do. I tend to disagree with that notion, especially during the random voting stage of the game.

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So my problem with her first post is that calling yourself out like that is an ostentatious and confusing thing to do.

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And then people kept beating the dead horse which made me repeat it over and over which made her feel attacked.

[Valmark]

Ah, I get it. Many players think that revenge voting (OMGUS) is a wolf thing to do. I tend to disagree with that notion, especially during the random voting stage of the game.

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So my problem with her first post is that calling yourself out like that is an ostentatious and confusing thing to do.

Ah, I see- I was looking at it under the impression that Snow had called out herself as suspicious, rather then the reasoning being suspicious.

Eh, I don't really agree- it's not particularly different from any other reason for a random vote (imo). I will say that, reading the specific quotes you presented, it kinda looks like you were trying to throw shade on Snow and then she kinda turned around and cast her shadow (pun intended).

First you asked BCH about an opinion on Snow's vote, criticizing her a little bit but also mentioning you could be a bit biased. Then she asked you what you thought about her voting you to which you replied possibly pressure.

Snow later voted for you apparently with no real reason, then got a reason which is... Somewhat pertinent. It's true that there's no real reason to put light on the fact that your vote tecnically starts a counter-wagon, but it's also true that we don't know wether it was on purpose and wether you decided to say nothing.

It's then that you make a more sizable post regarding Snow where you criticize her reason to vote you (or so it looks to me). That looks weird as it feels like you're expressing doubt about her for something that is simply her way of playing (something Rogan as well picked up on, though they could be in cahoots).

Lastly, you expressed that Snow isn't your main suspect but don't want to vote for them- and while understandable (as you previously suspected the Seer for the same reasons) it does feel weird, and you're willfully 'protecting' this person that pings wolf to you by voting away from them.

It is a confusing behavior, and it does look like you're focusing on Snow for different reasons from the ones stated. Just like Snow could be but may be dissimulating them better.

[Rogan]

That would be because I am neither voting for you nor advocating for you to be lynched today. To me your first post looks like stepping out in front of the crowd going “Look at me, I’m doing a sus thing! But I’m telling you it’s a sus thing so I can’t possibly be a wolf, right? Right?” But I’m aware that I have a bias when it comes to you (and you have done similar things before), so I asked for a second opinion. Batcat’s opinion boils down to “meh”, and after that this should have been a non-event that died a lonely death at the back of my mind, but other people have kept poking at it.

<Quotes>

Reread that, pretend it’s two different people, and ask yourself: who’s throwing shade at who here? I would be a hypocrite if I claimed I don’t have a wolf lean on you now, but that’s not because of your opening post. It’s because last game when you were suspicious of me, you engaged with me, asking a lot of probing questions both of me and all the others. Now your posts are all light-hearted jokes or statements about me – and me alone. If you’re not a wolf, then you’re tunnelling hard which seems like a bad overreaction to someone criticising a single one of your posts. I can get some lingering resentment over last game, but still.

Counter to that is that too many others are town reading you to all be fellow wolves, and that IÂ’m seeing more potential wolves than is reasonable for a game this size, so some if not all of them must be wrong.

Traffic, I really don't think your argument is valid...
I don't think the OMGUS vote was a wolfy thing to do, especially not during this situation. You now say you don't think it's suspicious either. I don't remember anybody saying the vote was suspicious.
But you place it in a context of "Snow is very aware of her actions and how they look. She will call things out as suspicious in her own posts to show she knows they are suspicious, which a wolf would not do because if a wolf knows something will make them a suspect, they would stop doing that thing altogether "

Using this context in conjunction with the first vote implies that her first vote was a bad thing, without explicitly saying so. To make it worse, you use "many think that's suspicious" which makes it seem like a reasonable interpretation.
That's what I mean when I say, I think you want to throw shade on her. You don't explicitly call her a wolf, but you point out traits of her and paint them in a negative light. This creates a feeling of "Snow is evil" , but if you are called out on it, you can easily backtrack and say, no, you never called her a wolf, it's all a big misunderstanding.

I was reading the thread again, not limited to the quotes you gave us. I think, you are painting a bad light on snow again. She did interact with other people in non- joking ways as well. See for example her post where she voted for you. It starts with a question for someone else. You snipped this, which is fine for showing her interactions with you. But since you later accuse her of only focusing on you, it gets a bad taste...
The big difference between Snow and you in my mind is, Snow started off as a random vote for you, but she came to a wolf read later and actually calls it this way, including her reasons. She is very much in the open about her intention of killing you.
You on the other hand are less direct. You paint her in a bad light but avoid saying "I think she is a wolf since she is doing this thing". If someone had jumped on your half-accusing first post, you could have pushed more into this direction. You said yourself you were hoping to drop it quietly after you didn't get support, but instead multiple other people started paying attention to your post and you had to answer. You accidently put yourself in a situation where you got to be the center of attention (instead of being able to carefully poke at multiple people and see if you could get something to stick, which wolf!you would have wanted).

I also get the impression that you are trying to focus the current attention at one small thing, hoping you can show how small it is and by doing so getting rid of suspicion.
But your first poke against snow is not the reason for the wagon on you. I told you why I started to get suspicious, but didn't want to vote you, since I thought you were firmly in the lead. Snow corrected me and noticed you created a counter wagon. It's not clear if you intend to do so in order to avoid being in the lead, but it's possible; the votes shifting like that could be a wolf plot. See UPick, where Snow getting votes was interpreted as a wolf move to save Cao (when in fact the wolves could not risk losing Snow).
Another thing is the choice of your counter wagon. As explained by me and mostly agreed by you, SJ (Ninja now) is more likely to be town. You still stayed there and refused to move. On its own, I might accept that you have different priorities, limiting the risk of losing a good townie instead of an inactive townie. But it's another drop in the bucket of concerning things about you. They simply add up and that's the real problem.

Tl;Dr:

I don't think snow is tunneling.
It's not about a single post, there are multiple things that don't look good.

---

Please give me 3 posts you agree with and 3 you disagree. Please try to include non snow posts.

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Oh, you mentioned being hypocrite:

Yes. The reason it's weird is that he's creating a schrödinger's wagon with the pre-start votes while ignoring that until you revoted me we already had one. #alsobiased

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Meaning that the reason given is just fluff.

You seem very aware of the votes and how they shift. You use this awareness to criticize gac, saying he should have known this as well. So you are annoyed if Snow is calling things as they are, but if someone isn't aware of things or not admiting them, it's bad as well.

[Snowblaze]

It’s because last game when you were suspicious of me, you engaged with me, asking a lot of probing questions both of me and all the others. Now your posts are all light-hearted jokes or statements about me – and me alone. If you’re not a wolf, then you’re tunnelling hard which seems like a bad overreaction to someone criticising a single one of your posts. I can get some lingering resentment over last game, but still.

Last time when I was suspicious of you it was endgame and there were lots of things to ask questions about and go back over. This time it's day one, and not much has happened. Yes, I know last game I was trying to get things moving a bit more, but I haven't really got properly into this game because I've been ill and it's been Christmas.

Fortunately, both of those are no longer problems. It is definitely a good idea for both of us to focus on things other than each other, though... so question time!

@Taffimai:

What are your reads on Rogan and Caoimhin?

Who do you want to kill today? (Other than your Seer read, and possibly me.)

Give me... two townreads, with brief explanation.

(Feel free to combine these with the 3/3 if it helps you to not repeat yourself.)

@Valmark
@Batcathat

Thoughts on the current wagons?

@whoever's still voting JNinja

Do you think there's a reasonable chance SJ quits like that as a wolf? If so, why? If not, why are you still voting for the slot?

I need to reread the thread to figure out if there's more questions. Also in need of a vote count.

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Rogan (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Taffimai (5): Snowblaze, Sean, Rogan, CaoimhinTheCape, gac3
JNinja (2): Supagoof, Taffimai
gac3 (3): Valmark, BatCatHat, bladescape
Not voting: JNinja

I did not realise Taffimai had five votes already.

[gac3]

1. Is the day not over yet? I thought Xi said it would end today.

2. I would appreciate it if people didn't move their votes off of me. If you want to vote for me then that's your decision. But I'm too curious what would happen if me and Taff tied (them getting a 5 and me at 3) so unless someone is actively trying to save Taff, my curiosity is worth the risk to me.

[Snowblaze]

1. Is the day not over yet? I thought Xi said it would end today.

2. I would appreciate it if people didn't move their votes off of me. If you want to vote for me then that's your decision. But I'm too curious what would happen if me and Taff tied (them getting a 5 and me at 3) so unless someone is actively trying to save Taff, my curiosity is worth the risk to me.

Day ends today at 4pm New York Time.

Also it's only a tie if Taffimai is exactly Don Zaloog, and unless I've missed something I don't see any evidence that she is.

[Batcathat]

@Valmark
@Batcathat

Thoughts on the current wagons?

True to my track record, I'm kind of all over the place. I'll try to sum up my thoughts, though there's not really anything new.

gac3: His early posts were odd enough that he's still one of my strongest wolf reads, but I liked his later posts better and especially his interactions with Taff seem strange if he's a wolf and she's not. But as I suggested earlier, it's certainly possible that he's either a wolf feeling sure enough that Taff will get lynched that he can afford defending her to build future cred or that they're both wolves (if one of them flips wolf, we should probably take a closer look at their interactions).

Taffimai: I'm going back and forth on her. My original vote on her was more less random but as others have pointed out, there have been some possibly wolfy logic from her (I should probably ISO Snow to try and figure out if Taff's reading of her posts seem reasonable, though I'm not sure I'll have time before EoD) though I don't think it's as damning as suggested (I'm all too familiar with getting paranoid about Snow for no reason ). In short, I probably won't vote her but I won't try save her either.

SJ/JNinja: I wasn't much in favor of voting someone for being inactive (it's a lesser loss at a mislynch but we don't really learn anything at all either) and not of voting their hopefully more active replacement either. That said, I don't think the circumstances of SJ's exit really says much about their alignment, so Ninja should be treated as anyone else (that is, viewed with great suspicion until proven otherwise. ).

[gac3]

Day ends today at 4pm New York Time.

Also it's only a tie if Taffimai is exactly Don Zaloog, and unless I've missed something I don't see any evidence that she is.

This is part of why I'm interested. I'd be slightly more worried if we were actually tied, which I left the option for. The curiosity is only worth it since I feel here is a greater than 50% chance I won't be killed. In this situation, if I die, I have a solid chance of taking a wolf out with me. Meanwhile if we were tied for real and both die as a result, we might lose two townies.

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That's why I requested no change unless people are trying to save Taff. If the people voting Taff and Me are fine with Taff dying then either Taff dies or I die or Taff and i die. Any situation where I die though, we also found a wolf. So if we want to change targets (even if that target is to me) then that's fine. But right now either the person who is already going to be lynched is lynched or we learn the tie rules.

[Snowblaze]

SJ/JNinja: I wasn't much in favor of voting someone for being inactive (it's a lesser loss at a mislynch but we don't really learn anything at all either) and not of voting their hopefully more active replacement either. That said, I don't think the circumstances of SJ's exit really says much about their alignment, so Ninja should be treated as anyone else (that is, viewed with great suspicion until proven otherwise. ).

The way I see it, I think a wolf would be much less likely to abandon their team, especially by actively asking to be lynched.

(Also I only just thought of this but the line about not knowing how to use their power is towny. A wolf would be less likely to think of that given they have the option of asking their partners in wolfchat.)

[JNinja]

Finally reached the bottom of the posts, and ready to play, yay! Here's my agreements and disagreements so far:

Like most people, I agree that yeah, it’s not nice to kill someone for being inactive over Christmas :)
Agree with Valmark that Snow’s first post didn’t look like she was calling herself out for being sus. When I was going back and rereading to catch up, I wondered whether something had gotten edited out, because all she said was “Present, town and OMGUSing CaoimhinTheCape” but when Taff quoted her that’s exactly what she quoted. Snow was revenge voting, but I disagree that that is a werewolf sign (though with my inexperience I don’t have proof of that). At no evidence that’s one step up from a randvote and better than rolling a D12, I guess (at least more fun). So this is also agreeing with Valmark. This is a while back, but I’m not sure what to think about Sean’s “random” vote on the top wagon. Either it was truly a random vote and Sean was paying no attention to game state (which is possible), or it was trying to sneak in and join a wagon without calling attention to the fact. Given that everyone jumped on him for it that seems a clumsy move for a wolf. So I’m uncertain.
I disagree with Taff’s thinking that a seer (or other power role) is trying to hide as a wolf. The wolves all know who one another are – they have a Discord server, remember? There literally isn’t a point to trying to convince the wolves you are on their team. Apparently the last game was fully blind alignment-wise, even for the wolves, but in most Mafia games hiding as a wolf makes absolutely no point. So I also disagree with Caoimhin, who said that he saw her reasoning for last game and that “We're all power roles this game so it's possible that it's an important power trying to hide.” Hiding in that way is VERY VERY POINTLESS especially because it seems like it would draw suspicion for that reason.

The thread and vote count seem to be leaning towards Taff for multiple reasons. My agreements and disagreements above also lean in that direction. So I’d vote Taff, but I am sympathetic to gac's quest for information. Though, to be fair, we aren’t likely to learn anything for certain. If Taff dies, she wasn’t Don Zaloog. If no one dies, either Taff is Don Zaloog and the tie rules mean no one dies, or Taff is Camula (extra life). But either way, Taff then is confirmed wolf and gets lynched next turn. If they both die, then I guess we’ll learn unequivocally.

So then, I shall poke the Seandiggersby, as he is unlikely to die. Happy @gac?

[Taffimai]

I unvoted Saint-Just shortly after he posted, just like I said I would, and nobody has noticed. I'd expect people who are suspicious of me to at the very least check. Doing what you say you're going to do is NAI, but saying you're going to do something without following through would usually be a wolf tell.

Town, I need you to wake up, because I'm going to need you to win this for me. Remember: townies investigate, wolves just sling mud. Other things you should have picked up on is the lack of a credible counterwagon and the complete lack of posting so close to EoD. This may sound more bitter than I want it to. I still love... most of you


I wasn't sure I was going to do this, because my previous post took hours to make and has had no effect at all, and I was very disappointed last game that only two people commented on my reads, with Caoimhin completely misreading what I was trying to say in there, but I know I will regret it if I don't do this. And hey, if it turns out that I am phenomenally wrong, then at least no one will ever push me for reads on Day 1 ever again.


The people I will be rooting for
I think these are townies, but if they're wolves then they are welcome to the win.

Spoiler: Batcat: not slinking

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Random vote for the person with the most votes isn't a great look (and it does sort of make me want to withdraw my own vote, since I'm not really suspicious enough of Taff for her to be the only plausable wagon).

Mistrusting a wagon that pops up too fast or that becomes serious too quickly is a very healthy trait because it's usually the result of wolf action.

Although I'm still not sure about Taff (and I have a slight suspicion that she might be trying to pocket me) I feel like we should have more options

Of all the reasons I've seen to be suspicious of me, this is far and away the best one, and it is a good, pro-town attitude.

To clarify, my issue wasn't with the vote as such but with it being presented as random. While it's certainly possible for a genuinely random vote to happen to be on the lead wagon, it did give me some wolfy vibes. But yeah, it's not exactly a strong argument, especially with new player. I just thought it was worth pointing out.

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gac's later posts feel more towny, but I'm not sure who I'd vote for instead if I moved off him (I feel like the hipster of voting for Taff, abandoning it as it becomes popular). I should probably just reread everything from scratch and try to see if my various vibes are based on anything but my questionable gut.

Another post that stands out to me as being very clearly town.

One caveat: I did not suspect Batcat in Upick2 at all. However, his behaviour in the two games is day and night.

Spoiler: Gac: get out of my head

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I didn't realize Rogan had been voting. Will revote once I catch up but I crossed out my Saint vote because i saw they showed up.

If you're a wolf and your pressure vote is causing unwanted attention, then this entire elaborate reading-fail is not what you do to justify un-voting, because all it does is attract more attention.

Sean was suspicious because they joined the biggest wagon by "randomly voting" and on an experienced player I'd be accusing them of not being random.


"I see thought process" is a completely unfair standard for which to base someones townieness on. I say this strictly because I cannot remember the last time someone followed my thought process.


General note: If it wasn't Christmas, I'd be paranoid about AV right now due to not having seen posts that I would have expected to by now. But given many jobs and personal lives get busier for some people during this time, it might be that.

See, the suspicions of Taff (from what I've noticed) seem to center around them starting a wagon without realizing it for a weak reason. That would be wolfy except one thing. I know there is logic for whether or not town benefits from lynching someone who hasn't said anything, but the real question is, what would wolves gain from it? [ B]If the idea is that its wolfy because they acted like they weren't starting a wagon when they did, then I don't see why wolves would care about a wagon on Saint[/B], rather than someone like me (who is easy to justify votes for), Snow (who has a dangerous reputation), Book (who shows up just enough to potentially cause problems for wolves) or really anyone else. Saint doesn't seem like a high value target. ((Also I chose my examples based on potential wolf justifications for picking them. I am not trying to imply an active town read on any of them.))

These posts show very solid pro-town reasoning. If a wolf wanted to garner towncred by defending the townie that was being lynched, I don't think they'd come with this particular argument.

I also really like the thought process by which he later decided to vote for me. Saying you'll try to do the 3+3 thing but then never doing it would, outside of holiday season, score you some serious wolf points though.

Spoiler: Bladescape: nodding along ;)

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Nothing Bladescape has posted has stood out to me as being particularly odd. And Rogan is right, his posting here is entirely in line with how he plays as town.

Spoiler: Wombat: is Wombat

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If Wombat were a wolf, he could have gotten away with not posting anything until the end of the day, and if he wanted to post mid-day anyway, my guess is that, even if indeed he has no time, he would have made a joke rather than calling it a random vote. The only way I can see his post being a wolf post is if he was specifically coached to do the random vote because it would look more authentic. Basically, I wouldn't look here again unless Snow, Bladescape or AV flip wolf.

The reason he's not higher on my townreads is that a random vote that just so happens to land on someone who wasn't being voted for at all seems very convenient.

Spoiler: Valmark: welcome back

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Arguably true about Snow, but still if someone looks town it's possibly better to test them out in a way different from votes.

I would say that voting for someone who isn't around at the beginning doesn't yeld much information.

I agree with his point about not voting for Snow/active players who look town, for the sole reason that they've been successful wolves in the past. He further defends his point very consistently (not quoted), and I don't think a wolf would've bothered defending such a pro-town stance so strongly.

His stance on the inactives I disagree with, but his tone is still giving me very strong town vibes here.

Many other things he has said could have been either from town or wolf.

I've found it a bit conspicuous that, right after I call out Snow for not interacting with me, he starts pointedly interacting with me. However, I really appreciate the effort to make sense of what I said even though I've failed to explain it clearly. Our conversation felt to me like we were talking next to each other, not like a wolf purposely misunderstanding me to confuse onlookers.

Sean
This was going to be my null reads, but my only null read is Sean.


Slight wolf-leans
I will still be rooting for these people because I think they're probably not wolves, but I have causes for concern.

Spoiler: Supagoof: the proto-Snow

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Allright, game on.

Not that my opinion has changed.

AvatarVecna - While this would be smart - AV has massive brownie points for narration in last game. Get's a pass until they sus...
BatCatHat - Usually a good choice, but I've target BCH for first points before. And I was right, but what are the odds that happens again.
Bladescape - "Escape" is literally in his name. Lol - too entertaining
Gac3 - The clue master. Figuring out what Gac hides is always fun, no sense in throwing that out the door.
BookWombat - Bookie always bring some sunshine into games that have gotten too serious. Best to keep him around.
CaoimhinTheCape - I owe Cao a debt. As in, I got a seer mislynch to happen to him. I will be in his debt for that delightful memory.
Rogan - Lawful Rogan - guys a paladin. More then once though, he's stood up for me on my extended weekends away from the forum.
Saint-Just - Only played with SJ once, last game. Perhaps give him the joy of being a senseless bandwagon day 1?
Seandiggersby - New guy. Don't want to scare new players away by killing them day 1.
Snowblaze - Snow. If she's a wolf, they'll likely kill her before town does. Bus-master extraordinaire that she is.
Taffimal - Good player, have done 2 games with Taffi. Her analysis each time enabled a win for my team. Starting to think she's a good luck charm.
Valmark - Another new guy. Same as before, don't want to scare new guys away.


Not so random point at Saint-Just.. See logic above. And also cause I'm too lazy to rewrite any new logic.

Aah, the other first post that pinged me. He's buttering people up, and that could be an early sign of wolfing. However, it could also just be an elaborate jokey way to justify voting Saint-Just, which I've developed more and more understanding for as the day went on.

Without more to go on, though, he's just going to sit here at the slightest of wolf leans.

Spoiler: AV: MIA

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It's clear that she was irritated with how the game started, probably both because she expected recruitment to last until after Christmas, and because so many of us ignored Xihirli's request.

Still, not checking in at all when she's been active elsewhere is NAGL.

Spoiler: Saint-Ninja: too convenient

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Saint-Just's posts are 100% genuine, I don't doubt that. But just like Ninja's, they're just NAI. I checked his profile myself, and he really hadn't been online for nearly two weeks, so "a wolf would not abandon his team like this" is just nonsense. RL has no bearing on which team you end up on.

My wolf lean is meta: either Xihirli missed the fact that one of the townies had not shown up, or she noticed that he had been offline, discussed it with the wolves, and they agreed to start the game while she looked for a replacement. The speed with which she had a replacement ready after Saint-Just's farewell makes me think the second scenario is much more likely (and note that the other game Ninja was interested in, was narrated by Caoimhin, so he may very well have suggested her).

Too. Many. Wolves.
If you're a narrator and you rand these four specific people as wolves, you should reroll. I also think four wolves is one too many for this game.

Spoiler: Rogan: wishful thinking

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His reasons for voting for me are weak. It is one thing to be a villager and make a mistake, but to be this stubbornly wrong and to not give the arguments from the one you're lynching fair consideration is not going to lead town to victory.

Spoiler: Snow: that's a lovely fur coat

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I really don't have much to add to what I've said about Snow. She feels different to me from last game, her reasons for voting me are far-fetched, and she pussyfooted towards the actual accusation so she could quickly retract it if her accusations didn't gain traction.

Just like Rogan, she's a vocal player who isn't doing town any services here.

Spoiler: Caoimhin: too friendly by far

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More so than Snow, Caoimhin sticks out to me because he doesn't look like he's looking for wolves. All his speculation is about meta things, and his reads list is not only unprompted (like I did last game), but also non-committal. He has no wolf reads at all, but calls me a wolf "by default". He manages to find reasons to neutral/town-read everybody but for me he claims he has found none. And yet, his reason for voting for me is once again non-committal:

Gonna move to vote: Taffimai for now, so that my vote is somewhere that matters more.

I also found it very telling that when he talks about the people who defended me, he says they should be looked at again if I flip wolf, but when he talks about the people who are pushing me (Rogan and Snow), there is no similar thought for when I flip town.

He got in trouble last game for being too in-your-face, and now he's overcompensating. I went back and compared with his behaviour in Afterlife on the first day, just to be sure.

Spoiler: Bladescape: the spicy hot read

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Yes, he's on here twice. No, he's not necessarily the person I referred to as possibly an important role for town. He is explicitly at the bottom of the list so the wolves know who that really is.

My "Bladescape could be a wolf" revelation came from the thought experiment: "where would I be voting right now if I were a wolf". If anyone here could be a wolf trying to score towncred from the mislynch, it's Bladescape, and he works as a partner for all three of the others I'm suspicious of.
Rogan and Bladescape are townreading each other, Snow made that flippantly-dismissive remark about the possibility of them being wolves together:

(Also if bladescape and I are ever wolves together we'll just bus each other to death.)

and this:

Cao is iffy.

Gac is iffy.

Book's lack of further input is definitely iffy.

I'd vote in Gac/Cao so far.

could very well be distancing in that he calls both Gac and Caoimhin iffy without any explanation, and then goes with Gac, without explaining why:

Okay, Rogan is town.

Gac3

Could use more pressure rn since no one wants to poke Book with me.

Also not doing the 3/3 thing.

But I will answer questions that don't require me to comb the thread if ya got em.

This response brought to you by Blade's lazy and procrastinating side.

A lot of people haven't done my 3v3 thing, only Bladescape felt the need to explain why. Promising to answer questions and then still not explaining why he picked Gac over Caoimhin is a very wolfy thing in my opinion.

As I've said, I think he's town, but there's always that shadow of a doubt.

Let's think about possible wolf teams. If I had to pick one right now, I'd say Snow, Caoimhin and Saint-Just/Ninja. It's the one that makes the most sense to me, based on today's events.

As I've mentioned, Bladescape works with any of the other three, but it's more of a dark horse.

Snow and Rogan? This is the obvious dream team, not just because they are two such vocal players and would make effective wolves together, but more because I just like the idea that they're wolves significantly more than that these players would lynch me for such frivolous reasons #verybiased

Any possessed Player will keep the same powers regardless of their side.

I feel that this is a strong reason to think Nightshroud is not in the game: if I had gained town's trust and then turned into a wolf, it would have pretty much meant game over, unless I was the only one left. In that sense, it's a good thing for town that I'm dying now.

Good luck guys, I'll be in the dead chat with pom-poms!

[Rogan]

I unvoted Saint-Just shortly after he posted, just like I said I would, and nobody has noticed. I'd expect people who are suspicious of me to at the very least check. Doing what you say you're going to do is NAI, but saying you're going to do something without following through would usually be a wolf tell.

Town, I need you to wake up, because I'm going to need you to win this for me. Remember: townies investigate, wolves just sling mud. Other things you should have picked up on is the lack of a credible counterwagon and the complete lack of posting so close to EoD. This may sound more bitter than I want it to. I still love... most of you

<Snip>

Good luck guys, I'll be in the dead chat with pom-poms!

Sorry for not noticing your unvote. For the next game, I would strongly suggest to make a new post with a red "unvote" or similar. Otherwise it's very easy to miss. And it's harder to analyze the game status, since you can't go by post order, but have to check all the timestamps as well.
This is especially important, since it's around Christmas, so many (if not all) players won't be doing much.


You are in a bad position. You look like a wolf to me for multiple reasons. You didn't manage to calm my suspension, instead they grew.
Maybe I'm in a tunnel, but if this is what's happening, I'm not the only one. Sorry if this kills you, but be assured: your death will give us information and we will use them.

I'm glad for your read list, but for my side, it's too late to change things. I don't trust you, so I will have to check and double check if I can follow your reasoning. There is not enough time left for this.
To make it worse, if you are what I assume you are, the list will be full of poison. I'll have to be extra careful when going over it.

If I'm right, I kind of assume we will meet again in the dead chat soon.

Perhaps give me one more hint, while you are still here: assume I have a harmful power... should I target your wolf leans or search in the too many wolf pile.

[Xihirli]

End of Main Phase One

Narration and battle phase to follow

[gac3]

Finally reached the bottom of the posts, and ready to play, yay! Here's my agreements and disagreements so far:

Like most people, I agree that yeah, it’s not nice to kill someone for being inactive over Christmas :)
Agree with Valmark that Snow’s first post didn’t look like she was calling herself out for being sus. When I was going back and rereading to catch up, I wondered whether something had gotten edited out, because all she said was “Present, town and OMGUSing CaoimhinTheCape” but when Taff quoted her that’s exactly what she quoted. Snow was revenge voting, but I disagree that that is a werewolf sign (though with my inexperience I don’t have proof of that). At no evidence that’s one step up from a randvote and better than rolling a D12, I guess (at least more fun). So this is also agreeing with Valmark. This is a while back, but I’m not sure what to think about Sean’s “random” vote on the top wagon. Either it was truly a random vote and Sean was paying no attention to game state (which is possible), or it was trying to sneak in and join a wagon without calling attention to the fact. Given that everyone jumped on him for it that seems a clumsy move for a wolf. So I’m uncertain.
I disagree with Taff’s thinking that a seer (or other power role) is trying to hide as a wolf. The wolves all know who one another are – they have a Discord server, remember? There literally isn’t a point to trying to convince the wolves you are on their team. Apparently the last game was fully blind alignment-wise, even for the wolves, but in most Mafia games hiding as a wolf makes absolutely no point. So I also disagree with Caoimhin, who said that he saw her reasoning for last game and that “We're all power roles this game so it's possible that it's an important power trying to hide.” Hiding in that way is VERY VERY POINTLESS especially because it seems like it would draw suspicion for that reason.

The thread and vote count seem to be leaning towards Taff for multiple reasons. My agreements and disagreements above also lean in that direction. So I’d vote Taff, but I am sympathetic to gac's quest for information. Though, to be fair, we aren’t likely to learn anything for certain. If Taff dies, she wasn’t Don Zaloog. If no one dies, either Taff is Don Zaloog and the tie rules mean no one dies, or Taff is Camula (extra life). But either way, Taff then is confirmed wolf and gets lynched next turn. If they both die, then I guess we’ll learn unequivocally.

So then, I shall poke the Seandiggersby, as he is unlikely to die. Happy @gac?

Lol me? I mean. Yeah. I guess

[Xihirli]

Turn One: Battle Phase

"That scrub," Chazz Princeton said to himself for maybe the sixth time that night as he wandered out to get some alone time.
"Shepherd's got Jaden right up next to the likes of me and Zayne... all because of a few lucky duels? I'm the Chazz!"
"Oh, hey there, Chazz!"
"What? Who are you? Where's your shirt?"
"Good questions all 'round there. I am the one! The only! The original! Don Zaloog!"
Chazz blinked. "Am I supposed to know who that is?"
"I'm the one who's gonna take your spirit key. And not knowing what's comin'... oh, that's gonna cost ya a lot in this match!"
"That may be... but I'm rich!" Chazz's duel disk fired up. "Duel!"

Alexis had followed the smoke... and noted that it was rising from the volcano. Frankly, that was cause for alarm. She ran to go see if it was erupting.
Luckily, it wasn't... the smoke was coming from a burning kite...
"Now now, what do I see?
Is that a spirit key smiling at me?"
Alexis gasped as she looked up at the masked individual grinning down at her. He leapt from a stone spire and landed inches from the lava. He rose and walked right toward her.
"Guess I'll shake that duelist as hard as I can...
And down will come the key... right into my hands."
"Who are you?"
"You can call me Nightshroud... and then you can leave your key right there and walk away, save yourself the pain of loss!"
"Not likely, Shadow Rider!" Alexis's duel disk came out and she inserted her deck into the proper slot. "Duel!"

Bastion was in his dorm room, deep into researching defense point quantum mechanics when his door exploded. Before him was a wild, muscled woman. Gasping, he shot out of his seat, duel disk ready. "You! You're here for my key!"
Tania laughed. "Oh, that thing? Kagemura wants that. No, Bastion... I'm here for you. Duel!"

Jaden had fallen asleep in class, and was gently being awoken by his professor, Lyman Banner.
"Jaden..."
"Guh... normal summon!" Jaden woke up, doing the 'random answer' trope.
"Jaden," Banner said. "I was wondering if you'd like to have a duel."
"What? Me and you?"
"If we're going to protect our keys, we'll have to improve! Just a practice match."
Jaden grinned. "Well, sure, Banner. You know I'd never turn down a duel."
Banner laughed. "Yes, Jaden... yes I do."

At the edge of the lake, Crowler and Zayne were both talking... well, Crowler was talking.
"And I'll be able to get the whole dorm duel vests, after this spirit key thing blows over. Then we can start thinking about getting rid of that house of slackers, Slifer Red..."
Zayne wasn't listening, he was watching the boat come closer... and the vampire on it smiling at him.

"I'll go first!" Chazz announced. "I... draw!"
He grinned at his luck. Perfect. If I set Masked Dragon Face-down, I can summon Armed Dragon Level 3 from my deck when he attacks it. And with Armed Dragon Level 7 in my hand, I can tribute summon it if I activate Fires of Doomsday in my opponent's endphase. Armed Dragon Level 3 will tribute itself for Armed Dragon Level 5 and I'll have two powerful monsters to clean house with.
"Alright, scrub! I'll set a monster in defense mode! Then I'll turn it over to you with one more face-down! Ready to watch me Chazz It Up!?"
"Sure thing, Chazz. I'll normal summon the man, the myth, the legend!" Don Zaloog put a card down and moved to stand on his own field. "Don Zaloog!"
"You're... you're a card!?"
"Geez, what do they even teach in card game school these days?" Don Zalooga activated a spell.
"And by discarding a card, I can activate Dark Core, banishing your monster!"
"What?" Chazz watched the face-down Masked Dragon vanish.
Don Zaloog went to battle, meaning he just walked up to Chazz and punched him in the face, knocking him on the ground.
"And when I deal battle damage to you, you discard one random card!" Don Zaloog snatched a card out of Chazz's hand.
"But... armed dragon level seven..."
"Oh, did I get a good one?" Don Zaloog tore it in half.
"Oh well, I guess you'll just have to do without."
But Chazz could not. In short order, Don Zaloog had ripped every card out of his hand and landed the finishing blow, knocking him down.
"Thanks for the key, kid. Don't worry, I'm sure some paradmedics will come to this random forest eventually." And Don Zaloog walked away, spinning the key he'd just taken.


Taffimai has been destroyed in battle. She was Chazz Princeton.

Spoiler: Roles/Players

Show

Player	Role	Side
AvatarVecna
BatCatHat
Bladescape
Gac3
BookWombat
CaoimhinTheCape
Rogan
JNinja
Seandiggersby
Snowblaze
Supagoof
Taffimal	Chazz Princeton	Duel Academy
Valmark

Turn One: Main Phase 2

Player powers are declared at this phase. It will last... probably 24 hours.

- - - Updated - - -

M2 actions can be sent in PMs or alternate ways of contacting me which I have sent with your role PMs.

[Rogan]

Turn One: Battle Phase

Spoiler: Fluff

Show

"That scrub," Chazz Princeton said to himself for maybe the sixth time that night as he wandered out to get some alone time.
"Shepherd's got Jaden right up next to the likes of me and Zayne... all because of a few lucky duels? I'm the Chazz!"
"Oh, hey there, Chazz!"
"What? Who are you? Where's your shirt?"
"Good questions all 'round there. I am the one! The only! The original! Don Zaloog!"
Chazz blinked. "Am I supposed to know who that is?"
"I'm the one who's gonna take your spirit key. And not knowing what's comin'... oh, that's gonna cost ya a lot in this match!"
"That may be... but I'm rich!" Chazz's duel disk fired up. "Duel!"

Alexis had followed the smoke... and noted that it was rising from the volcano. Frankly, that was cause for alarm. She ran to go see if it was erupting.
Luckily, it wasn't... the smoke was coming from a burning kite...
"Now now, what do I see?
Is that a spirit key smiling at me?"
Alexis gasped as she looked up at the masked individual grinning down at her. He leapt from a stone spire and landed inches from the lava. He rose and walked right toward her.
"Guess I'll shake that duelist as hard as I can...
And down will come the key... right into my hands."
"Who are you?"
"You can call me Nightshroud... and then you can leave your key right there and walk away, save yourself the pain of loss!"
"Not likely, Shadow Rider!" Alexis's duel disk came out and she inserted her deck into the proper slot. "Duel!"

Bastion was in his dorm room, deep into researching defense point quantum mechanics when his door exploded. Before him was a wild, muscled woman. Gasping, he shot out of his seat, duel disk ready. "You! You're here for my key!"
Tania laughed. "Oh, that thing? Kagemura wants that. No, Bastion... I'm here for you. Duel!"

Jaden had fallen asleep in class, and was gently being awoken by his professor, Lyman Banner.
"Jaden..."
"Guh... normal summon!" Jaden woke up, doing the 'random answer' trope.
"Jaden," Banner said. "I was wondering if you'd like to have a duel."
"What? Me and you?"
"If we're going to protect our keys, we'll have to improve! Just a practice match."
Jaden grinned. "Well, sure, Banner. You know I'd never turn down a duel."
Banner laughed. "Yes, Jaden... yes I do."

At the edge of the lake, Crowler and Zayne were both talking... well, Crowler was talking.
"And I'll be able to get the whole dorm duel vests, after this spirit key thing blows over. Then we can start thinking about getting rid of that house of slackers, Slifer Red..."
Zayne wasn't listening, he was watching the boat come closer... and the vampire on it smiling at him.

"I'll go first!" Chazz announced. "I... draw!"
He grinned at his luck. Perfect. If I set Masked Dragon Face-down, I can summon Armed Dragon Level 3 from my deck when he attacks it. And with Armed Dragon Level 7 in my hand, I can tribute summon it if I activate Fires of Doomsday in my opponent's endphase. Armed Dragon Level 3 will tribute itself for Armed Dragon Level 5 and I'll have two powerful monsters to clean house with.
"Alright, scrub! I'll set a monster in defense mode! Then I'll turn it over to you with one more face-down! Ready to watch me Chazz It Up!?"
"Sure thing, Chazz. I'll normal summon the man, the myth, the legend!" Don Zaloog put a card down and moved to stand on his own field. "Don Zaloog!"
"You're... you're a card!?"
"Geez, what do they even teach in card game school these days?" Don Zalooga activated a spell.
"And by discarding a card, I can activate Dark Core, banishing your monster!"
"What?" Chazz watched the face-down Masked Dragon vanish.
Don Zaloog went to battle, meaning he just walked up to Chazz and punched him in the face, knocking him on the ground.
"And when I deal battle damage to you, you discard one random card!" Don Zaloog snatched a card out of Chazz's hand.
"But... armed dragon level seven..."
"Oh, did I get a good one?" Don Zaloog tore it in half.
"Oh well, I guess you'll just have to do without."
But Chazz could not. In short order, Don Zaloog had ripped every card out of his hand and landed the finishing blow, knocking him down.
"Thanks for the key, kid. Don't worry, I'm sure some paradmedics will come to this random forest eventually." And Don Zaloog walked away, spinning the key he'd just taken.

Taffimai has been destroyed in battle. She was Chazz Princeton.

Spoiler: Roles/Players

Show

Player	Role	Side
AvatarVecna
BatCatHat
Bladescape
Gac3
BookWombat
CaoimhinTheCape
Rogan
JNinja
Seandiggersby
Snowblaze
Supagoof
Taffimal	Chazz Princeton	Duel Academy
Valmark

Turn One: Main Phase 2

Player powers are declared at this phase. It will last... probably 24 hours.

Xi, nice fluff text. I might try to pick it apart, but not right now...

About Taffi (oh .... )
So I was wrong... The bright side is, I don't need to look out for the poison in Taffis posts. The bad side... I need to check Snow again. Preferably during the night, just in case I will die before tomorrow. But ahhh... so few time! RL is still busy with some family meetings.

Snowblaze, Sean, Rogan, CaoimhinTheCape, gac3

These are, if Snows last count are correct, the people voting for Taffi.
Snow still feels like town. I know I am town.
So Sean, Cao or gac.

I had to push gac a bit till he voted that way. My reason was a possible Donni!Taffi.
Wolf!Gac would have known Taffi was town, so he might have wanted to stay off her wagon, but he couldn't ignore my idea either. On the other hand, Taffi had him in her top tier.
Sean is a problem. He is silent and voted for Taffi for no reason. Null read from her side.
Cao... I need to reread Cao as well. Taffi had him in the too many wolves tier, so she might have been right there.

I don't think these three are all the wolves, it seems by far too risky to put all eggs in the same basket. So there needs to be someone else.

[gac3]

Need to catch up on some longer posts but interesting. Not a good lynch but better than the seer or doctor.

- - - Updated - - -

Will try to get more descriptive reads out but:

Strong town leans:
Sj/ninja: i just don't see that playing out that way as a wolf.

Town Leans:
Rogan: more vibe and their discussion.

Would be town leans if not for paranoia:
Snow blaze

Would be wolf leans if not for... Them:
Book Wombat: book is acting like the typical wombat. I never have enough to read them

Suspicious people:
AV: I'm not liking this absence. Maybe it's part of their recent burn out on top of the holidays... But either way, an inactive AV is better than an active wolf AV but not by much.

I know that's not everyone. That's my off the top of the head, not having gone back to analyze yet.

[Batcathat]

Not sure if I'm happy about having been right about Taff or not, now I kinda feel I have to ISO the people with the most posts. (Though at least the pace of this game mean it's not really that much to go through, I'm most being Christmas lazy).

[bladescape]

Gac/Sean/Valmark

Recovering from Christmas but I am pretty sure there's one in there.

Taff was good but got caught by "People sussing me is sus"ism hence putting most of her wagon in the sus list.

Sean is new but might be failing from the pressure making them not post.

AV is always possible but I wanna see more from them first.

Valmark was just inciting between people earlier, playing a "I could see either side" post that just felt wolfier than wolfington.

Gac's takes just feel weird. It's possible this is just thought process clash as he has pointed this out before. But also thread position was wolfy.

I need to re-read like everyone because I have barely read this thread.

(I am sorry for not getting to your question Taff. Effort not good during Christmas.)

[gac3]

Gac/Sean/Valmark

Recovering from Christmas but I am pretty sure there's one in there.

Taff was good but got caught by "People sussing me is sus"ism hence putting most of her wagon in the sus list.

Sean is new but might be failing from the pressure making them not post.

AV is always possible but I wanna see more from them first.

Valmark was just inciting between people earlier, playing a "I could see either side" post that just felt wolfier than wolfington.

Gac's takes just feel weird. It's possible this is just thought process clash as he has pointed this out before. But also thread position was wolfy.

I need to re-read like everyone because I have barely read this thread.

(I am sorry for not getting to your question Taff. Effort not good during Christmas.)

I'm confused why Sean is listed with me and Valmark.

- - - Updated - - -

I will say I actually am realizing that I have a few people I'm paranoid about but I have no idea why. Like my brain is like "I think they might be a wolf" and when I go "why", it's like "i dont have to explain myself to you!" So idk

[Rogan]

I think blades behaviour is in line for his town game. I might be biased, as allways, by seeing his town read on me. But I don't think so.
Now, I have a hard time remembering a wolf blades... Could someone remind me of the last match where blades was evil? Just to be sure...

---

I should not be here at this time... I'll try to change it. Good night.
Oh, and could somebody please remind me to shut up if I start to post too much (again)..? Having no posts is bad, but having too many posts is not great either.

Quoting this because the question about blades wolf match was not answered, as far as I know.

The lower part still applies as well...

In Yu-Gi-Oh! Ties in battle result in either nothing or both dying, depending on whether the one being attacked is in defense or attack position.

And that's all the explanation you'll get.

I think this is a good thing to discuss during the night, since it won't really help the wolves picking their power use.

So... when reading the fluff, it occurred to me that we (as town) are the defenders while the bad guys are attacking us.
Could this mean that a tie between two townie would result in no kill, while a tie with a wolf will result in both killed?
Or, slightly less town sided, that a tie between players of the same alignment will result in no kill, while another tie will result in deaths?

It might be worth to test this hypothesis and if necessary (and I stay alive), I would volunteer to be one of the tied players.

But since settling up a tie requires cooperation by all players, it would be important to get more input. So...
@Everyone: I want your input!
Please answer these questions:
Do you think this tie rules are possible? If no, why?
Do you think testing them is a good move? Why/ Why not?

Getting an answer to the question of "who should be tied" should probably wait till the next day (main phase 1? I can't remember how the phases were named here...).

[JNinja]

Now I remember why Mafia is stressful ...

So... when reading the fluff, it occurred to me that we (as town) are the defenders while the bad guys are attacking us.
Could this mean that a tie between two townie would result in no kill, while a tie with a wolf will result in both killed?
Or, slightly less town sided, that a tie between players of the same alignment will result in no kill, while another tie will result in deaths?

[...]

Do you think this tie rules are possible? If no, why?
Do you think testing them is a good move? Why/ Why not?

Are those rules possible? I mean, yes, anything is possible. Technically in Yu-Gi-Oh the state of the tie is already only looking at the defender's status though, in which case labeling someone as attacker or defender is superfluous. So of those two options the second is probably more likely (and more balanced). Another possibility could be whether the tied people are voting for (attacking) one another or not. The system you proposed does seem simpler and easier to work with though.

As for whether testing them is worth it ... I do like information. But I don't think it's worth spending a couple rounds that we should be finding wolves just testing rules. We would not know exactly how it works after only one round - especially if both survive and we thus don't get information on their alignments, or if it is based on something we aren't taking into account. And if it doesn't work how we expect, we run the risk of accidentally killing off two villagers at once. All this to gain information on ... I guess what happens late game and if wolves can successfully stall with even numbers? I'm not sure how this information actually helps us (particularly how it helps Town at all more than the Wolves), please explain if you think it does. So I think we should not make the tie rules our priority, we'll find out when we find out. What are usual tie rules in these games, both die? That's how One-Night-Werewolf works.

Also, now that I don't have the pressure of reading everything and getting a vote in before 4pm, can someone explain some of these acronyms to me please? I understand NAI (Not An Indicator), EoD (End of Day), and you explained OMGUS. But what are FoS and ISO (I can tell from context this is an in-depth read on someone but what does it stand for)?

[gac3]

I don't think it likely that the rules are "town counts as defense position". That might just be me though. Otherwise we could literally tell everyone to vote themselves and town would win. I don't see a way that should be happening. My ideas for what it means revolves around who the tied people are voting for.

For instance: If me and Taff were tied and voting for eachother, I think we would both have died. However maybe defense position would have been that Taff wasn't voting for me. They wouldn't be attacking me and therefore I would die because they were in defense position. Or neither would die? Whatever happens when a monster attacks a defense position monster.

- - - Updated - - -

Now I remember why Mafia is stressful ...



Are those rules possible? I mean, yes, anything is possible. Technically in Yu-Gi-Oh the state of the tie is already only looking at the defender's status though, in which case labeling someone as attacker or defender is superfluous. So of those two options the second is probably more likely (and more balanced). Another possibility could be whether the tied people are voting for (attacking) one another or not. The system you proposed does seem simpler and easier to work with though.

As for whether testing them is worth it ... I do like information. But I don't think it's worth spending a couple rounds that we should be finding wolves just testing rules. We would not know exactly how it works after only one round - especially if both survive and we thus don't get information on their alignments, or if it is based on something we aren't taking into account. And if it doesn't work how we expect, we run the risk of accidentally killing off two villagers at once. All this to gain information on ... I guess what happens late game and if wolves can successfully stall with even numbers? I'm not sure how this information actually helps us (particularly how it helps Town at all more than the Wolves), please explain if you think it does. So I think we should not make the tie rules our priority, we'll find out when we find out. What are usual tie rules in these games, both die? That's how One-Night-Werewolf works.

Also, now that I don't have the pressure of reading everything and getting a vote in before 4pm, can someone explain some of these acronyms to me please? I understand NAI (Not An Indicator), EoD (End of Day), and you explained OMGUS. But what are FoS and ISO (I can tell from context this is an in-depth read on someone but what does it stand for)?

Finger of Suspicion (Basically saying someone is suspicious but not enough to get your vote)

I have no idea about ISO but you have the gist of what it means.

- - - Updated - - -

I had a bunch of text typed out trying to analyze the fluff text for end of day. I was breaking it down with theories and had listed out every role mentioned in the text. But then I realized something and deleted everything before the realization.

***INSERT REALIZATION***

Actually looking back, at Rogan's first post, every name on my list is on their list. Ever name on their list is on my list. One exception being I didn't find mention of the mysterious old man. Outside of that one number discrepancy though, the lists also both contain the correct number of people for the game. I will also confirm that my role is among the listed though based on what was said about them in the fluff text, I don't think it likely that the fluff text is supposed to tell us anything about who is who, even if its supposed to tell us who is in the game.

The problem is, working off this theory worries me for a few reasons:
1. This leaves two roles whose power and alignment we know nothing about. I'm claiming this is worrisome, not that it is reason to disbelieve the theory.
2. That's four wolves mentioned. So we should probably work under the assumption there are four until given reason to think otherwise. I figure, even if there are only three, we don't lose anything from thinking there may be four.
3. This is the only observation that might invalidate the theory that this list of names is full and complete with all roles in use. It kind of makes Banner's power to start with knowledge of four roles not in use severely weaker right? I know there is no reason to assume that we are perfectly right on this list per se but if it is correct, then it's not like they would be safe to claim a role they were given. Maybe their power is a hint to them that the list is accurate by saying "these four aren't in use, they also aren't in fluff posts"

For clarity the list of 13 people is.
Professor Shepherd – Seer
Professor Crowler – Fool
Zane Truesdale - Vigilant
Alexis Rhodes - Wrench in every plan
Jaden Yuki - Baner
Bastion Misawa - Marker
Chazz Princeton – Beast of some kind

Nightshroud – Ghost
(Lyman Banner) Amnael – Devil
Camula – hard to kill Vortexer
Don Zaloog – dead chat / lower votes

Tania
Old Man (The only one not on my list)

[Snowblaze]

Welp, sorry Taffimai. I'll kill a wolf to make up for it.

...hopefully.

Anyway: bladescape's last wolf game was the first Afterlife iirc. The tie rules thing is plausible, but I agree with JNinja that I don't think testing it is too important, just because it distracts attention from finding and killing wolves.

ISO is short for "isolation" and means looking at all a player's posts to try and figure out their alignment. Takes a very long time!

- - - Updated - - -

I will say I actually am realizing that I have a few people I'm paranoid about but I have no idea why. Like my brain is like "I think they might be a wolf" and when I go "why", it's like "i dont have to explain myself to you!" So idk

Why do I get the feeling I'm one of those people?

[gac3]

Welp, sorry Taffimai. I'll kill a wolf to make up for it.

...hopefully.

Anyway: bladescape's last wolf game was the first Afterlife iirc. The tie rules thing is plausible, but I agree with JNinja that I don't think testing it is too important, just because it distracts attention from finding and killing wolves.

ISO is short for "isolation" and means looking at all a player's posts to try and figure out their alignment. Takes a very long time!

- - - Updated - - -


Why do I get the feeling I'm one of those people?

Because you are paranoid. If any of them turn out to flip as wolves, I'll let you know my whole specific list. But until then all I've got is my "instinct" rather than any real reason