Yu-Gi-Oh! GX: Werewolf!

[AvatarVecna]

*awakens*
*lays up in self-dug grave*
*gravestone still has no death date*
*watch says D2*
*sets effort gauge to 50% ass*

I think Tania is either a vanilla wolf or a neutral role - if she's in the game. Could be that she's the name of the wolf one of town players turns into after Nightshroud dies. However! The opening post indeed mentions exactly thirteen characters, which means it cannot possibly be correct without invalidating Amnael's Lead Compass ability. My guess is there are unfilled roles in the flavour text, and the wolves know which. My money's on Nightshroud (who I'll bet will be doing the faction kills for the wolves and is played by "always-a-wolf" Xihirli - this conjecture based purely on Nightshroud's description being the coolest) and Alexis (a very good fake claim for the devil, because she targets but has a very good reason for never getting results from said targeting). Alternatively, more characters might still make an appearance later.

Probably the strongest indication to me that the flavor text isn't a list of all the roles in the game is that if it were accurate, we'd be at 7-6, with one of those six (Tania) being a cannical Shadow Rider who isn't even listed as a possible role in the recruitment thread role list. It's clearly fluff. We've not yet had a death that wasn't in that post, but I'm still pretty confident it's at least a little bit wrong.

I don't get why you call Alexis a wrench in every plan. Her night action is voluntary on the side of the wolf - who would be giving up the wolf team's hold on the dead chat (without Nightshroud we can keep helping in the hopes that the tombkeeper is in the game) as well as the replacement wolf since "winning" is not the same as "being destroyed". That's a terrible trade for a townie who has no way to actively help town and who will die with her brother anyways. Add to that the fact that we sign up to play much more than to win and I honestly can't see many players screw over their team like that. But Saint-Just called her disruptive in the recruitment thread as well, so perhaps there's something I'm not seeing? Can you give me an example of a plan that doesn't work because of a possible Alexis?

Her power is worse than useless, an active liability to town. At absolute best, Nightshroud isn't in the game at all, and Alexis (if present) is a vanillager. If both are in the game, and town kills Nightshroud, not only does Alexis die as well, but another townie gets shifted to wolf team. So if Nightshroud gets an offer in the night to survive the game, it's either an easy "yes" because wolves are screwed (and town + 1 wolf win the game), or an easy "no" because wolves just learned they can kill one townie and alignment-screw another by just...claiming to be a wolf and getting lynched. A game where Nightshroud and Alexis both exist is a game where trying to kill Nightshroud reduces town numbers by 2 and wolf numbers by 0. That's an easy choice, and it makes Alexis' alternate win condition basically guaranteed to never happen if we played through the game a hundred times.

Third time's a charm!
bladescape, you won't escape!
Or will, probably more likely.

I'm probably just paranoid but I can easily read this white-text as w/w reading for BW/blade.

Wow, I did not expect the game to start so soon. I'll probably be pretty busy for most of today, so let's say Taffmai just to have something out there.

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Make that Taffimai. I've literally never noticed that "i" before.

If it makes you feel better, most people seem to spell it TAFFIMAL from what I can tell so.

I disagree about Nightshroud/Alexis not being in the game - it seems like this is a unique pair of roles and if I was running, I'd be hesitant to cut something like that.

Agreed.

Alexis + Nightshroud would be very balanced in favor of wolves, so probably fewer wolves than usual if that's the case.

Just Nightshroud probably means both deadchat readers are in the game. I think giving only one team that advantage is kinda mean.

Just Alexis would be hilarious as she's essentially a vanillager without Nightshroud in the game.

I also like that Val is new! Welcome new player Val! I'm sure this will be an exciting experience for you, being unaccustomed to Mafia and such games.


Sarcasm aside, an actually welcome to Seandiggersby. Hope you enjoy the game!

Supagoof is old crowd. We're all new to them.

Book Wombat

Just making this official.

My reads are sporadic and my effort low.

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Also Taff gets browny points for being posts that I read and nod to.

So I will not be voting there unless something drastically changes.

Distancing?

Batcathat 1: Rogan
Snowblaze 1: CaoimhinTheCape
Valmark 1: Taffimai
bladescape 1: Book Wombat
Book Wombat 1: bladescape
Taffimai 2: Batcathat, Snowblaze
AvatarVecna 1: AvatarVecna

(Assuming the non-crossed-out votes from before official start count.)

I was going to start a wagon, but it turns out I'm already on the only one we have. Since I'm also lacking marvellous insights, I'll stay where I am until I get some.

smh Cao isnt even dead yet and you're stealing his job

FOS on SupaGoof for me always (including as I type this (I'm too lazy to check)) forgetting if it's SupaGoof or sugapoof and then trying to butter me up with comments that I'm choosing to interpret as blatant compliments

Batcathat because I'm curious to know if votes prior to the main phase starting count. Bat has posted twice since the start but not voted since the start. Also had at least one vote before the start but none after. So in a sense of evidence (yet), I lean into experimentation

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Ah I see... Snow blaze chose to count as if all votes so far count. Innocent assumption or wolf plot to deprive some of us of votes by helping us think those votes counted? Idk but I've missed this and have had too much chocolate... So paranoia unfold!

A neat question. Haven't been paying enough attention to know if it's been answered tho.

Yay, something's happening!

I... don't really get how voting for BCH will help you test whether all votes count. Having said that, there's a much easier test: @Xihirli do votes cast before the official start of the game count?

And it's definitely an innocent assumption. (What do you mean, "I don't believe you"?)

As always, don't like the "but maybe I could be a wolf certainly you couldn't believe me if I said I wasn't" kinda lines in posts.

I assumed the preemptive votes would count, but I suppose you might be right. So let's make my Taffimai vote really official.

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Is it just me or does gac's arguments for voting me read a little weird? It's hard to be unbiased since it's about me, so I won't change my own vote, but I'd love to hear what other people think about it.

You're not wrong that it's weird, but the weirdness is that he mentioned it at all. Best thing to do would've been to ask about it privately, not say anything publicly, and see if you ever switch your vote after day starts. If you don't, that's points against you because the only way you'd not change your vote on D1 is if you were doing it on purpose as part of a scheme.

Publicly proclaiming "Im watching you in case this is your scheme" theoretically gives you an opportunity to abandon the scheme and make gac3 look weird for suspecting it, without him ever getting a chance to see if he was right.

I'll eventually be wrong on this but...

Snow is town I think.

This feels less certain than I recalls blade's leans being in previous games.

I'm not going to doubt on Snow because I have so far called her correctly in every single game we've played. That includes when she was wolf and I was town.

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Yes this is what we call an ego read.

Yes this will bite me some day.

This reads like you know you're wrong and you're trying to soften the blow for after Snow gets mislynched because "well I was bound to be wrong about Snow eventually".

I got some bad vibes from Taff and AV.

AVs stance about the game start seems contradictory, she definitely payed some attention to the game since the beginning but refused to vote since it would not change things and take too much energy. But her first vote was the usual self vote, which doesn't change a thing either.

There is nothing contradictory about "I don't want to waste time I don't have to on this game" and "just kill me already". I basically refused to play until D2 on the off-chance I get immediately murdered cuz I didn't feel like putting in the effort unless it seemed there was a concerted effort to keep me alive.

But AV always looks suspicious... and I don't really want to vote there, since she was the narrator last game (and still got killed). I also don't really see a reason for wolf AV to act this way.

...really? Really.

You can't think of a reason AV would be quiet D1 as a wolf.

I mean, if for no other reason, it worked out pretty well for us last time.

Some wise person (I think it was Elenna) once (in UPick2, if I recall correctly) said, its would be a bad move to use a night action to verify someone as town if you think they are town.
So how would you suggest to test snow (unless telling us your method would allow her to fool you)?

I'll go ahead and second Elenna with a clarification: if you're already fairly sure about somebody's alignment from analysis, don't use mech to confirm them. If you have a way to mech-confirm alignments, use it on the people you have no freaking clue what side they're on. The exception to this would be on people you've got a read on, but you're not confident in that read and you know you can't afford to be wrong. Those people are also worth scrying.

Ah, okay. I think, this game was from before my active time here.
@AV You were the Alpha in the last Yu-Gi-Oh! game. Did you get to pick your team?

Not that I recall, no. At least in the time I've been active on this site, Alpha Wolves getting to pick their teams has been super-rare. Uusually, they're just seer-proof wolves. I wish that particular aspect of the Alpha was used more often, but I can kinda understand why it's a balance issue.

Hmmm? Using a vig shot on a likely lynch target seems very useful. The person in question would die anyway, but you get the flip faster. And nobody can blame you for your target choice.
The other good option might be a silent person. Someone who won't be missed much, but won't be lynched either.

And no, we don't know for sure. But there is a vig in the role description, so there is a chance.

Oh, some random thought I had... if there is a kill that might be a Serial Killer, I'd suspect AV. Her unmotivated play so far might be a sign of having low chances to win, like a SK would have.

Nah. I don't play SK boring.

This is not great, in that 2/5 possible werewolf characters would survive a vigilante night kill, one permanently.

Three. Nightshroud dying doesn't reduce the number of remaining wolves because then a random villager joins the wolf team. Three of the five wolves are (effectively) vig-proof. Camela can get shot if shot twice in a row, but then the vig is risking they're shooting Chumley instead of Camela. Heck, shooting Nightshroud could get Chumley switched to scumteam, making for another layer of vig protection. All this makes vigilante even more of an anti-town role than it usually is. If I were vig, I just straight up wouldn't shoot anybody unless I knew for a fact they were one of the two wolf roles vulnerable to vig shots.

Hmmm... I'll need to check your math and analysis but I did have an idea. If it's truly a 2/3 chance the big hit a wolf with the only exception being if they hit chumley... Nevermind that's a bad plan...
My idea had been: if chumley didn't lose a life, they speak up. They would still be safe from a death. Then the big could tell us who they targeted. But that only works if we have a vig. If we don't have a vig that's pointless.

The alternative would be to give chumley and option to speak up if they did lose a life. Then if they don't, then the vig speaks up. If they did lose a life then the vig is still hidden.

But all of those ideas are half complete and depend on having both a vig and chumley, neither of which is confirmed.

Alternatively we could just open up the suggestion that the big hit the same person tonight. However that has issues as well.

So maybe we should tell the vig to just say who they targeted? If it's a 2/3s chance of being a wolf then we have a solid lynch target idea? What do you guys think? I'm not sure it's a good idea or not. Though if the vig decides it's a good idea, they can out themselves even if everyone else thinks it's a bad idea. Opinions?

This is not my recommendation, just my thoughts after reading your odds. If the vig does announce themselves then I think they should wait until halfway through the day. That way even if we all have a target to switch to, there is a good bit of discussion happening first.

Chumley has a free life against card effects (NKs) but not against battle (lynches). If a chumley that has a life left speaks up, wolves never target Chumley, making Chumley a vanillager. The whole point of Chumley's power is getting wolves to waste a kill on them.

[Snowblaze]

Well ****. They've essentially become a targeted Beast that also has other powers.

Welp. Let's hope there is no Don Zaloog.

In other news, you didn't answer my question yesterday so have a new one: who should we kill, if not you?

[AvatarVecna]

...wait a minute.

Camula – Vampire: You are an actual vampire. It’s not quite clear how that happened. Since when are vampires real in Yu-Gi-Oh!? Whatever.
Book of Life
The first time you would be Destroyed (by battle or card effect), you are not Destroyed.
Illusion Gate
On your Main Phase 2: Target 2 Players. Any card effect, other than your own, that targets either Player until the next Endphase instead targets the other.

We've confirmed this game doesn't have vote counts, so it'll be harder to check if somebody is Don Zaloog. That being said: card effects are NKs, while battles are lynches. Camula is the only person in the game who can survive a lynch (unless Winged Kuriboh has died), and only gets to survive one lynch.

@Vigilante if somebody survives a lynch, and Winged Kuriboh hasn't died, don't shoot them. I know it's tempting, because now Camula is vulnerable to Vig shots and you know 100% who she is, but don't shoot them. She still has Illusion Gate, and will know that you know she's vulnerable scum. She knows you want to shoot her, and will basically be forced to Illusion Gate herself with another townie. I'd advise against shooting random townies on the assumption they'll be the IG target, btw. That's essentially just random guessing, don't do that. Just let it go, shoot somebody else you really really think might be a vulnerable scum, and just trust that town will lynch her again tomorrow.

[bladescape]

AV, just pointing out that my Rogan read and some of my other reads were more confident. Idk why you're cherry-picking my one poke about being 'not confident'.

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Valmark to start

[AvatarVecna]

AV, just pointing out that my Rogan read and some of my other reads were more confident. Idk why you're cherry-picking my one poke about being 'not confident'.

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Valmark to start

Your post is literally "I have no reason to ever doubt my Snowblaze reads, but wouldn't it be awful if this was the one time I was wrong".

EDIT: I'm cherry-picking it because it's the one where you're acting squirrelly, even as you call out exactly why you have no reason to be squirrelly.

[Xihirli]

Just woke up so can't say much, though I'll ask one thing- if Rogan used their power, which resolves in the Standby Phase, but was presumably killed before it since Shadow Riders' power resolve in the End Phase, will the power work? Or was it nullified?

Sprry if it was already asked and I just don't remember.

Assuming no other power interactions, Bonding – H₂O will resolve just fine if Bastion Misawa dies the end or standby phase after performing targeting.

EDIT: Rulings/rules not always consistent. I am adapting, after all, Yu-Gi-Oh.

[Valmark]

Welp. Let's hope there is no Don Zaloog.

In other news, you didn't answer my question yesterday so have a new one: who should we kill, if not you?

Wait, what question yesterday?

On one side, yes let's hope. On the other, I take issue with introducing a character that isn't actually there then :p

...I actually don't have a good reply to who should be killed. I mean- I don't think there's much you can gain from lynching me, but I also don't currently have anybody I suspect. Lynching a more active user feels like it could backfire, while a less active user (are there this time around?) is bound to give even less information.

So uh... Better me then another Townie, but a pointless mislynch?

Unless you can see my death be useful, in which case I'd rather be the one lynched.

[Snowblaze]

@Valmark
@Batcathat

Thoughts on the current wagons?

That question yesterday.

Inactives... Seandiggersby, AV was until today. Wombat and to a lesser extent Supagoof, but that's normal for them. I think that's it.

If you don't know who we should kill, do you have any people you think we shouldn't kill?

[Supagoof]

Wanders in. Does quick summary.

Rogan was killed. Townie - Strategist role.
3 points at Valmark. - Curious, logic is...?
1 at AV by Gac. This appears to have awakened the sleeping giant.

Who doesn't like a little pressure? Adding to the AV pile for getting a second option there. Note, this is not in anyway based on reads - this is to get a second wagon going.

The 3 points to Valmark is highly curious, given how fast they were to popup. I'm hoping there's more logic then "Be towny or else". Cao/Snow/Blades can you provide the why? I'm not saying that Val isn't a wolf (could be for all I know). I just find the quick pile-on for day two to be .... coordinated, which seems wolfish to me.

Point Count
Valmark 3 - (CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze, Bladescape)
AstraVecna 2 - (Gac3, Supagoof)
No vote yet 6 - (AvatarVecna, BatCatHat, Book Wombat, JNinja, Seandiggersby, Valmark)

[Snowblaze]

There's sort of more logic. Valmark hasn't done anything wolfy, just an absence of towny things. Thing is, I'm pretty good at reading Valmark (in the same way bladescape is at reading me) and generally how I tell when he's a wolf is an absence of towny things.

(I'm probably wording this badly, but there's an old wallpost I'll find that explains it better.)

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Spoiler: past!me's explanation

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I’m going to actually try trusting my instincts instead of kicking myself for not trusting them later on. Valmark.

Aventine raises a good point, I’m not inspired by any of his reasons for voting AV. And... I guess something just feels missing? It’s hard to put into words.

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May as well at least try to explain my suspicions. I just... don't feel like this is town!Valmark at all, and I know what town!Valmark looks like by now. I've repeatedly tunneled him, after all, but this just isn't the same.

Town!Valmark is... I guess you could say chaotic. He functions on instincts and gut reactions, he'll comment on anything and everything that catches his eye, he's not afraid of what people will think, he's not worried about little details like "consistency" and "sensible logic".

This Valmark isn't like that. Every move is justified, he makes perfect sense, objectively there's no reason to suspect him, but there's... like I said earlier, something missing, some kind of... some kind of spark, I suppose? It feels... kind of empty, as if he's just going through the motions.

Does that make sense? Can you see where I'm coming from? I hate feeling like this, I'm not normally an instinctive player, I function better with reads you can set out nicely and neatly and clarify and debate, not this half-formed mess I have at the moment...

...although my read on Valmark in Jellicle Ball was perfectly logical and sensible. And he was town then.

And Valmark was a wolf that game.

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Also: this thread now has as many posts as the game that quote came from did in total. Though that's probably because the lack of QTs means all the discussion is in thread.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

The 3 points to Valmark is highly curious, given how fast they were to popup. I'm hoping there's more logic then "Be towny or else". Cao/Snow/Blades can you provide the why? I'm not saying that Val isn't a wolf (could be for all I know). I just find the quick pile-on for day two to be .... coordinated, which seems wolfish to me.

Valmark needs attention too. My issue with Val is that I have no idea what his reads are. Going through a reread his random vote on gac stuck through the whole day but he didn't push for that lynch too much. There was some interaction with Taff (post #127 is the main one I’m looking at) that disagreed with her reasoning. But I don't see much of an opinion on any other player, and that to me reads as someone not willing to commit to reads until they see where town is headed.

From my perspective, Valmark could easily be a Wolf who is posting enough to blend in but being careful not to ruffle any feathers. The main opinions from Val during Day 1 were criticism of Taffimai (who was on track to be lynched) and a very early vote for gac (who ended up being the second choice for wagon). There was also some back and forth between Val and I, though that conversation didn't give me a good idea of Val's opinion of me.

Val's most recent post doesn't convince me he's town either - having no suspects after (what I thought was) a surprisingly talkative Day 1 seems weird especially when there's the low hanging fruit of "pressure vote someone who posted less".

[Valmark]

That question yesterday.

Inactives... Seandiggersby, AV was until today. Wombat and to a lesser extent Supagoof, but that's normal for them. I think that's it.

If you don't know who we should kill, do you have any people you think we shouldn't kill?

Oh, that's easy. Assuming they haven't done anything to make you suspicious, JNinja shouldn't be lynched as they joined late- AV coasted by on the first day and got busy on the second, so I say not lynch her before she gets the chance to do something.

I would also avoid lynching gac3 without suspicion, as they've been decently involved- everybody else's fair game, yeah. Nobody jumped to the eye in a particular way.

Wanders in. Does quick summary.

Rogan was killed. Townie - Strategist role.
3 points at Valmark. - Curious, logic is...?
1 at AV by Gac. This appears to have awakened the sleeping giant.

Who doesn't like a little pressure? Adding to the AV pile for getting a second option there. Note, this is not in anyway based on reads - this is to get a second wagon going.

The 3 points to Valmark is highly curious, given how fast they were to popup. I'm hoping there's more logic then "Be towny or else". Cao/Snow/Blades can you provide the why? I'm not saying that Val isn't a wolf (could be for all I know). I just find the quick pile-on for day two to be .... coordinated, which seems wolfish to me.

Point Count
Valmark 3 - (CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze, Bladescape)
AstraVecna 2 - (Gac3, Supagoof)
No vote yet 6 - (AvatarVecna, BatCatHat, Book Wombat, JNinja, Seandiggersby, Valmark)

Don't recall about Caoimhin, but Snow expressed the wish to vote for me on the basis that she'd usually be convinced of my towniness by now. It's... Not a particularly strong reason, but since the last time the reason to lynch me (and I was a wolf) was that everything I said makes sense it can kind of be understood?

I recall blade expressing doubt on the post I made in response to Taffimai where I explained how the discussion between her and Snow looked- I theorically look wolf because I made a post where it looks like I say 'I could see either side being right'. Which... Is not entirely wrong, though I don't get how that feels wolf.

Checking, Caoimhin is alarmed by the fact that I haven't been expressing judgement of people. Which is theorically understandable- as a wolf, I could be trying to coast by and join on the most-widely shared wagon. I kind of disagree as I didn't do that the day earlier, but that also could be seen as me not being invested in anything.
Personally I do think it'd have been pointless to move my vote as the only thing it could do was make Taffimai get lynched even harder. But eh.

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There's sort of more logic. Valmark hasn't done anything wolfy, just an absence of towny things. Thing is, I'm pretty good at reading Valmark (in the same way bladescape is at reading me) and generally how I tell when he's a wolf is an absence of towny things.

(I'm probably wording this badly, but there's an old wallpost I'll find that explains it better.)

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Spoiler: past!me's explanation

Show

And Valmark was a wolf that game.

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Also: this thread now has as many posts as the game that quote came from did in total. Though that's probably because the lack of QTs means all the discussion is in thread.

I mean, 'Towny things' seem to include trying to get Seers and Masons lynched (in my defense, I had reasons that seemed good at the time) so I dunno how do I convince you to read me as Town that way.

[Batcathat]

As advertised, my ISO on Snow (partly because I'm a little suspicious, partly because I feel a lot of people are leaning town on her so a critical view point might be good, I'll try to be extra suspicious for that reason ).

Spoiler: ISO on Snowblaze

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Present, town and OMGUSing CaoimhinTheCape.

I need to actually read the setup and the OP now.

The issue of her lampshading shady behavior has already been brought up. I'm leaning towards it not being inherently wolfy, I tend to do things like that myself even when town and I'm pretty sure I've seen Snow do it before.

I knew there were reasons I should read stuff before posting. I just saw other people voting and assumed that meant the game had started.

Also *makes mental note to ask something once we're officially playing*.

Right. Question. @Batcathat, why is the start of a game so stressful?

Also I've realised it's a bit unfair for me to be voting Caoimhin after I got them killed in the last two games. So Taffimai for not putting me out of my misery in Afterlife.

At the time, I suspected Snow's question to me might be in preparation for trying to get me lynched, but nothing really came of it so probably not (or my reply wasn't good enough fodder or Taff proved to be a more promising target).

I had forgotten that Snow voted Taff even before Taff started suspecting her. Not sure what to make of it. Doesn't look great now but considering I was voting Taff myself at that point with about as much reason, I can't really say it's that wolfy.

Batcathat 1: Rogan
Snowblaze 1: CaoimhinTheCape
Valmark 1: Taffimai
bladescape 1: Book Wombat
Book Wombat 1: bladescape
Taffimai 2: Batcathat, Snowblaze
AvatarVecna 1: AvatarVecna

(Assuming the non-crossed-out votes from before official start count.)

I was going to start a wagon, but it turns out I'm already on the only one we have. Since I'm also lacking marvellous insights, I'll stay where I am until I get some.

Counting votes could be a way so provide content and seem helpful for a wolf, especially since our typical counter was still around. I seem to remember some earlier game where Snow counted votes, but not after until Cao was dead, I think. I might be reading too much into it (well, I probably am) but I don't like it.

Yay, something's happening!

I... don't really get how voting for BCH will help you test whether all votes count. Having said that, there's a much easier test: @Xihirli do votes cast before the official start of the game count?

And it's definitely an innocent assumption. (What do you mean, "I don't believe you"?)

More lampshading of suspicious behavior. I agree about gac's tactic but that's a pretty reasonable reaction regardless of anyone's alignment.

What do you make of me changing to vote for you?

Also I don't really get what you mean by that last bit.

Also also, hi new person and new old partner-in-backstabbing-each-other!

That wasn't what I meant with that "last bit", I meant your question to Sean. As written it's saying "are you okay with yourself" which doesn't make much sense.

Yeah, gac's logic makes No Sense. At least that's normal for them.

Reading the OP will help you understand some of the mechanics talk earlier on, and also mean you don't have to scramble to read it when the inevitable claims and chaos happen. But then again, I only skimmed it and haven't taken much in. Maybe I should fix that.

@Valmark, why would you want to frontstab anyone? It's no fun that way!

That would make sense, yeah.

...and now I'm annoyed I didn't figure that out myself.

Eh, technically you townread SK!me in Craziest Idea. But I'll let you off that one since you were a wolf and I was townsiding way too hard.

Also I think SJ is currently lead wagon, @Rogan. Supagoof, Taffimai and gac are voting for him iirc.

...actually that's a reason to be suspicious of Taffimai.

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I recommend stabbing with a poisoned dagger, Valmark. And then retreating to a safe distance.

The comment about Taff doesn't look great in hindsight, but hardly impossibly as coming from a townie.

I'm not going mad.

And because "starting a counterwagon without admitting to doing so, with pretty weak reasoning".

Caoimhin vote crossed out. Thanks, Rogan!

bladescape, can you elaborate on your Taffimai townread if there's any more detail than what you already said?

(Also if bladescape and I are ever wolves together we'll just bus each other to death.)

I've reached the inevitable stage of confusion and paranoia. What fun.

Xihirli didn't explicitly say she wanted the wolves to confirm. The below quote

Spoiler: Quote

Show

could kind of be seen as implying that, but I don't think it's a valid reason to townread SJ. I do agree with not wagoning him just for being inactive, though.

...that being said, if he's a wolf then there's a good chance one of Rogan/Caoimhin is a partner.

Yeah, I... don't really get Taffimai's suspicions of me. If my being hyper-self-aware is just a character trait then it's not suspicious.

I think I'm now officially wolfreading her.

This makes me think of a game (Love Letter, I think) where I was super paranoid about Snow and having her as my strongest wolfread for a while. Snow's reaction was basically "Nevermind BCH, he's just being paranoid". Snow was town then and here's a rather different reaction to a similar situation. Obviously this is some high-level conjecture but I don't like it.

I'm a bit ill, so if I become completely incoherent then that's why.

I don't think SJ does that as a wolf unless he's exactly Nightshroud, which is unlikely enough that I feel okay clearing him.

I don't think other players should care more about how they look. And "lampshading suspicious actions makes you look less suspicious" ... kind of true under certain circumstances. But then again I don't think OMGUS as an opening post when there's nothing to go on is that suspicious (yes, I am biased).

That kind of ties into one of my main concerns about Taffimai, which is that she's criticising the way I play without actually explaining why it makes me a wolf.

That being said... there's the Seer read thing. Which I think isn't the kind of route a wolf is likely to go down.

I don't really have any better options, though. I'm not voting SJ, and I don't particularly want to murder gac for weird logic lacking clear wolf motivation. I'm considering Caoimhin but I have a tendency to wolfread their early game regardless of alignment so I'll give them time.

Not doing the 3/3 thing due to feeling awful, but there should be enough content to work with here anyway.

This could explain the above difference in reaction, I suppose.

The reasoning about SJ makes sense, even if I don't buy into it completely, but if Snow or Ninja flips wolf, it's probably a good idea to take a closer look at the other.

Morning all, and Merry Christmas/Happy Holidays/*insert seasonal greeting of choice here*! I'm feeling better but probably won't do too much wolf-hunting on Christmas Day.

Rogan, I think Taffimai is a wolf. My confidence is low but not completely non-existent, which is better than anything else I have.

Welcome, JNinja!

Funny, "confidence is low but not completely non-existent" is sort of how I feel about my suspicions against Snow.

Last time when I was suspicious of you it was endgame and there were lots of things to ask questions about and go back over. This time it's day one, and not much has happened. Yes, I know last game I was trying to get things moving a bit more, but I haven't really got properly into this game because I've been ill and it's been Christmas.

Fortunately, both of those are no longer problems. It is definitely a good idea for both of us to focus on things other than each other, though... so question time!

@Taffimai:

What are your reads on Rogan and Caoimhin?

Who do you want to kill today? (Other than your Seer read, and possibly me.)

Give me... two townreads, with brief explanation.

(Feel free to combine these with the 3/3 if it helps you to not repeat yourself.)

@Valmark
@Batcathat

Thoughts on the current wagons?

@whoever's still voting JNinja

Do you think there's a reasonable chance SJ quits like that as a wolf? If so, why? If not, why are you still voting for the slot?

I need to reread the thread to figure out if there's more questions. Also in need of a vote count.

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Rogan (1): Book Wombat
AvatarVecna (1): AvatarVecna
Taffimai (5): Snowblaze, Sean, Rogan, CaoimhinTheCape, gac3
JNinja (2): Supagoof, Taffimai
gac3 (3): Valmark, BatCatHat, bladescape
Not voting: JNinja

I did not realise Taffimai had five votes already.

Snow's usually good at driving the conversation and asking questions, but that's true regardless of her alignment.

I don't love the comment about not keeping track of the votes on Taff but that's about as bullet-proof as balsa wood when it comes to suspicions.

Day ends today at 4pm New York Time.

Also it's only a tie if Taffimai is exactly Don Zaloog, and unless I've missed something I don't see any evidence that she is.

The way I see it, I think a wolf would be much less likely to abandon their team, especially by actively asking to be lynched.

(Also I only just thought of this but the line about not knowing how to use their power is towny. A wolf would be less likely to think of that given they have the option of asking their partners in wolfchat.)

Welp, sorry Taffimai. I'll kill a wolf to make up for it.

...hopefully.

Anyway: bladescape's last wolf game was the first Afterlife iirc. The tie rules thing is plausible, but I agree with JNinja that I don't think testing it is too important, just because it distracts attention from finding and killing wolves.

ISO is short for "isolation" and means looking at all a player's posts to try and figure out their alignment. Takes a very long time!

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Why do I get the feeling I'm one of those people?

Reads list time, I think.

Town
JNinja - see my previous points on SJ's quitting

Rogan - vague gut things. Not seeing what I'd expect from wolf!Rogan.

Batcathat - basically what Taffimai said about their being different to UPick. Showing towny paranoia rather than wolfy hedging.

Would be town if I wasn't paranoid
bladescape, predictably. He's in line with what I expect from town!him but I've learnt the hard way that I can't meta-read bladescape.

Null
Book Wombat - remains himself.

AvatarVecna - is probably just extremely burnt out.

Seandiggersby - eh, I can see where bladescape is coming from here but. I'm probably not going to feel comfortable killing him based on one post. Hopefully he shows up and contributes.

Supagoof - I'm going to be triple-guessing this one to death after last Afterlife. I vaguely didn't like his opening post but *insert disclaimer about early day one reads here*

gac3 - ...yeah, I have basically no clue how to read gac. There've been bits I like, bits I don't and bits that make absolutely No Sense. My gut says town, but I don't trust my gut on this one.

Maybe wolves?
CaoimhinTheCape - another one I've been second-guessing a lot, but there was one post that felt like an anti-Taffimai agenda which looks worse given the flip. I think if they're town I figure it out eventually.

Valmark - yet to do anything that I can townread him for. And generally if he hasn't by a certain point it means he's a wolf. I don't think we're at that certain point yet, but I'm definitely considering "do something towny or else".

I feel reasonably confident on the townreads but everything else is just jumping at shadows and scrabbling around in the darkness. I'll try and find some certainty tomorrow, assuming I'm alive.

The list feels pretty towny, mostly because unless Ninja's a wolf (and I'm leaning towards "no" on that) Snow didn't include any wolves among her top townreads, which seems odd coming from a wolf.

Problems with gac's strategy:
- Chumley might not be informed if they were targeted
- the vig might have shot Rogan (either wolves shot Chumley or both shot the same player)
- Camula might have vortexed the vig shot onto a wolf (unlikely, admittedly)
- vig might have not shot anyone, whether out of choice or inactivity

I feel like there should be a plan similar to gac's that works, but I need more time to think through it.

Anyway, Valmark, be towny or else.

I don't really see where the focus on Valmark is coming from. It's certainly possible he's a wolf but it feels unlike Snow to zero in on someone like this without more evidence than "not doing anything towny". @Snow: Perhaps I'm missing something?

Welp. Let's hope there is no Don Zaloog.

In other news, you didn't answer my question yesterday so have a new one: who should we kill, if not you?

That question yesterday.

Inactives... Seandiggersby, AV was until today. Wombat and to a lesser extent Supagoof, but that's normal for them. I think that's it.

If you don't know who we should kill, do you have any people you think we shouldn't kill?

There's sort of more logic. Valmark hasn't done anything wolfy, just an absence of towny things. Thing is, I'm pretty good at reading Valmark (in the same way bladescape is at reading me) and generally how I tell when he's a wolf is an absence of towny things.

(I'm probably wording this badly, but there's an old wallpost I'll find that explains it better.)

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Spoiler: past!me's explanation

Show

And Valmark was a wolf that game.

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Also: this thread now has as many posts as the game that quote came from did in total. Though that's probably because the lack of QTs means all the discussion is in thread.

If this is a wolf trick, it's a pretty clever one. I'll have to think on it.

All in all, nothing conclusive either way but there are enough little things to make me remain suspicious. I'll probably ISO Valmark next, hopefully that'll make me confident enough to vote on one of them.

[gac3]

Agh. Being vig is hard. Seems a good chance Bat is a wolf based on them still being alive. Decided to just say it.

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Sorry forgot. Bat

[Valmark]

Agh. Being vig is hard. Seems a good chance Bat is a wolf based on them still being alive. Decided to just say it.

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Sorry forgot. Bat

...to be clear, are you saying you are the vig, you tried killing BatCatHat, and they survived?

[gac3]

...to be clear, are you saying you are the vig, you tried killing BatCatHat, and they survived?

Yes. More characters.

[Batcathat]

Agh. Being vig is hard. Seems a good chance Bat is a wolf based on them still being alive. Decided to just say it.

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Sorry forgot. Bat

I'm not sure whether this is the right move, but considering it seems likely that people will either think I'm a wolf or figure out who I am anyway, I might as well claim.

I'm Jaden Yuki. I used my power on myself N1, which I guess protected me from gac's power since they activate the same phase.

So yeah, that's me.

[Valmark]

Yes. More characters.

Mmm... Statistically, Batcathat is more likely to survive through somebody else's power or by being a wolf (or both). I will put a tentative vote on them- I'll take it off if it turns out they were defended by somebody else... Or if there's another good reason.

[gac3]

I'm not sure whether this is the right move, but considering it seems likely that people will either think I'm a wolf or figure out who I am anyway, I might as well claim.

I'm Jaden Yuki. I used my power on myself N1, which I guess protected me from gac's power since they activate the same phase.

So yeah, that's me.

Drats. Someone told me that wouldn't work so I assumed that wasn't an option.

[Batcathat]

I don't love that we seem to have outed both the vig and the baner in like two minutes. Hopefully town having the information will make up for the wolves having it.

[Valmark]

I'm not sure whether this is the right move, but considering it seems likely that people will either think I'm a wolf or figure out who I am anyway, I might as well claim.

I'm Jaden Yuki. I used my power on myself N1, which I guess protected me from gac's power since they activate the same phase.

So yeah, that's me.

Ah. I had forgotten about a baner protecting themselves.

Mmm... I will unvote. There should be time to vote again if someone counterclaims.

Drats. Someone told me that wouldn't work so I assumed that wasn't an option.

Who did?

[Batcathat]

Drats. Someone told me that wouldn't work so I assumed that wasn't an option.

Either someone stopped you some other way (which I guess is possible, but seems unlikely) or you were told incorrectly. Do you remember who said it? Might be a misunderstanding, might be a wolfy plot.

[Valmark]

Either someone stopped you some other way (which I guess is possible, but seems unlikely) or you were told incorrectly. Do you remember who said it? Might be a misunderstanding, might be a wolfy plot.

And where? As far as I know, only wolves have a private chat and also a kill.

[gac3]

I have a long post of power role analysis. Sorry because I know this won't help you with your reading of me but power role analysis is the part of this game I am good at, whereas reading people ... not so much.



Who could stop a vigilante kill? Chumley (villager) and Camula (vampire) both have extra lives, the first being protection only from card effects (so we can accidentally lynch Chumley first try but not Camula ... yeah, wolves have advantages in this game). So either of those characters would live. Also Kagemaru (alpha wolf) is permanently immune to card effects. This is not great, in that 2/5 possible werewolf characters would survive a vigilante night kill, one permanently. We know the sacrificial lamb has not died yet, so no one could have gained an extra life from that. Also, I debated whether or not to point this out to the wolves, but I think this is important for villagers to know. Jaden’s Baner power could not have done anything last night, as it technically prevents targeting from Standby to Standby. Targeting by either wolves or villagers occurs in the Main Phase 2 (night), so whoever Jaden banes one night is actually protected the following night instead (since the targeting he prevents has already happened before Standby, when powers resolve).
Results of this:
1. There might be a vigilante but they have unluckily chosen one of 3 protected characters or the wolf kill OR are inactive/chose not to kill tonight. OR the wolves unluckily chose the 1 protected villager (I'd expect some different flavor text though). Or Zane just isn’t in play.
2. There is not much point discussing Baner strategies (when we are at a stage we have revealed our card identities) because your plans won’t take effect until a whole round after you discuss them. So stay hidden, stay safe.

If there is a vigilante out there though, and you tried to kill someone last night, there’s a 2/3 chance it was a wolf, so that’s exciting. Only a 1/3 chance that if you try the same person again with your vigilante prowess you will succeed at killing a wolf though.

Another question: Who did Rogan mark with the H20 Bonding? I would assume he marked someone before he died, given he was active online during the night phase. It won’t be super helpful since he can’t tell us except through gravekeeper (and if that link exists we should keep it and not paint a target on their back by revealing), but someone might be trailing water soon. The helpfulness of this depends on whether only their target is notified by a puddle, or whether all of us get told in flavor text, though. However, if we do all get told, the only people who can possibly target more than one person a round are wolves (Camula, Don Zaloog, or Amnael if alpha is dead)

Also, having been analyzing power roles, I am CONCERNED that Don Zaloog has access to Cthonian Blast. And since that was the only dead role last Main Phase 2, that’s definitely what he would have chosen to use.
@Xihirli would Don Zaloog’s power be able to leave ongoing effects like that even if he picked a different character the next round?

Ah. I had forgotten about a baner protecting themselves.

Mmm... I will unvote. There should be time to vote again if someone counterclaims.


Who did?

Either someone stopped you some other way (which I guess is possible, but seems unlikely) or you were told incorrectly. Do you remember who said it? Might be a misunderstanding, might be a wolfy plot.

Relevant quote provided

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Bright side: nothing stops bat from continuing to target themselves as far as I can tell. Down side: if that happens wolves will know who not to shoot.

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Also, at least they can't redirect me without knowing my target.

[Batcathat]

Relevant quote provided

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Bright side: nothing stops bat from continuing to target themselves as far as I can tell. Down side: if that happens wolves will know who not to shoot.

They also have searing flame that can kill me anyway. If I'm lucky, they used it N1 (though unless they had some reason to think Rogan was protected that seems unlikely).

[gac3]

They also have searing flame that can kill me anyway. If I'm lucky, they used it N1 (though unless they had some reason to think Rogan was protected that seems unlikely).

Dang... Thats a powerful ability.

[Valmark]

Relevant quote provided

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Bright side: nothing stops bat from continuing to target themselves as far as I can tell. Down side: if that happens wolves will know who not to shoot.

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Also, at least they can't redirect me without knowing my target.

Oh, I see. Yeah re-reading it, Jaden could just bane themselves- their kill resolves together with the vig kill.

Batcathat wouldn't have been able to protect themselves against a wolf kill though, as their kill would have worked before that phase- which means that @Batcathat you should probably not say anything from now on about who you're gonna bane.

I mean, that was always a good rule of thumb, but even more so in this game.

[gac3]

They also have searing flame that can kill me anyway. If I'm lucky, they used it N1 (though unless they had some reason to think Rogan was protected that seems unlikely).

Welp... This would have gone differently if you were a wolf. I'd be much more pleased with the result. I'm still hoping for a counter claim.

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Oh, I see. Yeah re-reading it, Jaden could just bane themselves- their kill resolves together with the vig kill.

Batcathat wouldn't have been able to protect themselves against a wolf kill though, as their kill would have worked before that phase- which means that @Batcathat you should probably not say anything from now on about who you're gonna bane.

I mean, that was always a good rule of thumb, but even more so in this game.

Agreed with this.


Is there a difference between a "card effect" and an "ability"

[Batcathat]

Oh, I see. Yeah re-reading it, Jaden could just bane themselves- their kill resolves together with the vig kill.

Batcathat wouldn't have been able to protect themselves against a wolf kill though, as their kill would have worked before that phase- which means that @Batcathat you should probably not say anything from now on about who you're gonna bane.

I mean, that was always a good rule of thumb, but even more so in this game.

Indeed, and judging by Xi's answer about Rogan's power use, it sounds like my protection will survive even if I don't (though I should reread the rules and Xi's reply to be sure). I suppose I better put some thought into who to give my potential final gift to (assuming they target me N2, gac is also a good wolf target).

[gac3]

Indeed, and judging by Xi's answer about Rogan's power use, it sounds like my protection will survive even if I don't (though I should reread the rules and Xi's reply to be sure). I suppose I better put some thought into who to give my potential final gift to (assuming they target me N2, gac is also a good wolf target).

Idk. Part of why I outed myself is because there could be as many as four wolves who can get around my power. One is immune to affects, one gets a new wolf made, one has an extra life, and of the vortexes is there, they could vortex a fourth wolf so unless I hit the right townie, i wouldnt hit the wolf. I'm more of a danger to town than I am to wolves in this game.