Dead of Winter Mafia

[Xihirli]

Okay, please make your partners not horribly murder me and not vote for me to be lynched for the rest of the game. Thank you very much!

Sure. Snowblaze, try not to target yourself with the NK, Snowblaze asked me to make sure you don’t.

[Book Wombat]

First things first, Xihirli.
Second, suspicious scrollholder? Simply sad, super secret seer slayer substitute sending student spy?
Apologies about alliteration attack.
Quadruple confirming that all those who should have been at School were there, and no one else.

Any questions people want me answering other than my reads? Because I don't really have any.

[Supagoof]

So much to read through before I even get a post in today. Slow down with the assumptions people.

...I just wanna do things properly since Xi has fakeclaimed devil as town before. @Supagoof, can you confirm if Xi was at the grocery store with you?

Xi was not at the grocery store. It was just Valmark and me. During this night, it occurred to me the big glaring hole in the whole plan. With the police station unattended, and us pairing off in 3's at the other spots of which the gas station was un-attended, basically gave the wolves a roam the town free pass. They take their most likely to get scried/lynched tomorrow, have them not show at the location, head to the police station unnoticed, and easy instant second kill for them.

What I do find more interesting then this gap, is the framing up of a potential who else with it. I'll dive into that in a bit. Let me answer some of AV's questions, since they have so many of me.

Post 61: Supagoof avoids answering a question I just asked of him specifically

You say avoids, I didn't see it. Which should of become apparent when I asked Taffi why she had suggested killing someone in post #82.

Post 167: Supagoof switches from Taffimai to bladescape, tying both for the lead wagon

Right, cause I was finding more suspicion in the bladescape/snow pairing.

3) I expected Libro to never reply to my question. Supagoof basically immediately replied to the thread, but didn't address that he'd been asked about it at all.

Again, didn't really see it. I saw you poke me, didn't occur to me you were explicitly asking for what my tactic would be if I were a wolf. Which I question - why ask that question at all? It just gives them good ideas.

5) Batcathat pushed Rogan into the lead once, and removed Rogan from the lead once.

So Bch is pinging my most likely another wolf radar. Because Bch was the first to cast the suspicious narration on me with this post.

Yeah, that's certainly possible. I'm just thinking that a possible wolf plan (assuming Xi, Goof and BW are all wolves) would be to have Xi go to the Police station (that they picked her specifically was probably because she was the most likely scry and/or lynch target), they kill Valmark and if Xi isn't scried, they plan on having Goof confirm that she was with him, but when BW relayed the scry result, Xi started acting like she basically was on a suicide mission, in order to protect Goof.

(Yeah, I figured your post had basically outed Xihirli already).

And you know from me I get bit overly defensive when being accused of or even paired with wrongly.

As for the grocery store results - we each got NPCs. Valmark got Rod, which you can tell from the morning opening, Rod got killed when Valmark got killed. I have another NPC. Since today's lynch should be an over-resounding VOTE XIHIRILI my extra point means nothing, but the wolves knowing I have it will mean I'm a likely target tonight.

So my action tonight will be a "I'm going to the police station and voting No Kill". If anything, to prevent another wolf controlled vig shot.

[Book Wombat]

Wait, no one was at the Gas Station? What?

[Batcathat]

So Bch is pinging my most likely another wolf radar. Because Bch was the first to cast the suspicious narration on me with this post.

So your suggestion is that the wolves framed you and just in case town missed the very obvious signs pointing to you being a possible wolf, had one of their own point it out? (And very quickly to boot, why not give a townie the chance to take the blame for you being mislynched?)

Yes, it is possible that the wolves just decided to sacrifice Xi. But if they had a spy in the school, which seems very likely, they knew there was only a 25 percent chance that Xi would be scried (with the most likely result being us clearing a now dead townie). Sure, after Rogan's D1 Xi would still be a likely suspect even without a scry but it was hardly a sure thing. If I was a wolf, I would probably pick the small risk of a wolf being outed in exchange for a town death rather than said wolf being almost certainly outed in exchange for a town death and possibly making another townie look suspicious.

[AvatarVecna]

Again, didn't really see it. I saw you poke me, didn't occur to me you were explicitly asking for what my tactic would be if I were a wolf. Which I question - why ask that question at all? It just gives them good ideas.

You're right. We should all shut up and not discuss strategies, that way wolves will be helpless and have no ideas on how to do things.

Us theorizing in public about mechanical strategies isn't going to prevent wolves from thinking through their own strategies, so the difference between "discuss in public" and "don't" is how much the average townie is thinking about those things. Thinking about wolf strategies leads to thinking about counter-strategies, and the more people we have talking about that, the more people we have poking holes in this plan or that plan, the more likely we are to arrive at optimal strategies. Case in point: until we started talking through what we would do as wolves, we didn't quite realize how blitzy this game was gonna be. Whether the wolves knew that was an option before is irrelevant; if they didn't know, and we didn't know, we're risking them realizing it any second by not discussing it, whereas by discussing it we might be informing them of the possibility, but we're also putting public thought into counterstrategies to minimize the chances of the worst-case scenarios.

Additionally, in most games, but in particular in short blitzy games like this one might very well be, relying on mech for everything is a fool's plan - even at double scries (or a triple scry from a lucky grocery trip), it would take too long to get all the scries we need to be sure of who all needs to die. Despite the highly mechanical nature of the game, one result of those mechanics is that town is going to live or die on analysis. And that's kinda hard to do when there's four or five players who basically aren't playing. The reason I pinged you, Kish, and Libro, was in the hopes that by getting an answer from you, I might get a peek inside your mind - use that answer to see how you're thinking, see if you're thinking how I would think, or how I would expect you to think. I can pick apart your answer. Maybe it turns out you thought of a wolf strat the rest of us didn't really consider, and it turns out to be dangerous enough that we need to plan for it. Or maybe you're a wolf and your answer might seem off to me, and I can dig into why you think this or that would be a good move for wolves. If you don't answer questions, don't give insight into your thought processes, don't put forth your own theories on alignments or strategies, then we have nothing to work with, and we have to rely on mech or the good graces of the wolves to have a chance at learning your alignment.

If the three of you are all townies who just aren't participating, town's in a much worse position than if you did. And the frustrating part is, if you're all wolves, you're probably going to win by not playing, because everybody but me is allergic to going after low-activity players until it's too late and it's LYLO and nobody has any clue what you're thinking.

So answer a hypothetical. Give a read list and some reasons. Make wild accusations you don't even believe to get a reaction. Poetry with hidden clues hinting at your leans. Anything. Please don't leave us where our only chance is to scry you or lynch you to find out. We only get so many of either, and we want to use them properly.

[Snowblaze]

Sure. Snowblaze, try not to target yourself with the NK, Snowblaze asked me to make sure you don’t.

Except that I'm 100% cleared by virtue of Rogan being a wolf.

Wombat, thoughts on the new edition of the Plan (4 school/3 police/3 library)? And if pairings/unpairings don't count as reads, that too. Supagoof, both of those would also be appreciated.

Also I'm now concerned by how much I'm agreeing with AV this game. (Not in a way that says anything about alignment.) Seconding everything in their last post.

NPCs are a convenient(TM) thing to claim to have got from the grocery store.

...actually, I need to check something flavoury.

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Thought so. Two NPCs died last night, so the NPC death wasn't necessarily caused by Valmark getting one. I'm assuming it's the [redacted] from the OP.

Not sure what this actually means for Supagoof's alignment, though.

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Also the only reason I'm allergic to killing inactives is that they have a bad habit of flipping town and leaving us no better off than we were.

[Xihirli]

Poetry with hidden clues hinting at your leans.

A baby’s cradle with no baby in it,
A baby’s grave where autumn leaves drop sere;
The sweet soul gathered home to Paradise,
The body waiting here.

[AvatarVecna]

Except that I'm 100% cleared by virtue of Rogan being a wolf.

Wombat, thoughts on the new edition of the Plan (4 school/3 police/3 library)? And if pairings/unpairings don't count as reads, that too. Supagoof, both of those would also be appreciated.

Also I'm now concerned by how much I'm agreeing with AV this game. (Not in a way that says anything about alignment.) Seconding everything in their last post.

NPCs are a convenient(TM) thing to claim to have got from the grocery store.

...actually, I need to check something flavoury.

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Thought so. Two NPCs died last night, so the NPC death wasn't necessarily caused by Valmark getting one. I'm assuming it's the [redacted] from the OP.

Not sure what this actually means for Supagoof's alignment, though.

- - - Updated - - -

Also the only reason I'm allergic to killing inactives is that they have a bad habit of flipping town and leaving us no better off than we were.

1) I'm not understanding why Xi being wolf 100% clears you? Walk me through it, or point to a post that does so.

2) You're not wrong - statistically speaking, "Libro is quiet" is not alignment indicative, and killing an inactive ends up wasting a lynch on somebody who wasn't a threat. People are just more likely to be town than scum. But nothing short of fakeclaiming his role to him or threats to his life can get him participating, and even that doesn't always work. And I feel like an ******* for bringing this up so often cuz HURR DURR BAD WRONG FUN but like...it's frustrating to play with, no matter what side they're on and no matter what side I'm on.

I wasn't joking when I said my nightmare was being in LYLO with inactive players. It's like the only reason I'm glad to be guaranteed to die before LYLO as town.

[Xihirli]

I wasn't joking when I said my nightmare was being in LYLO with inactive players. It's like the only reason I'm glad to be guaranteed to die before LYLO as town.

Yet you're still alive now. Interesting.

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1) I'm not understanding why Xi being wolf 100% clears you? Walk me through it, or point to a post that does so.

Nope, makes sense to me. Snowblaze is 100% clear and not-a-wolf. And I should know!

[Lady Serpentine]

Libro in particular seems unlikely to be more active, given the comment he made in the Library was "If my low post rate isn’t common knowledge by now, idk when it will be. The fact that it irks AV amuses me to no end."

I'd be open to the idea of culling the inactive people tomorrow - presumably starting with him, since Kish has at least not actively indicated he doesn't intend on being more so - if we don't have anything notably stronger to go on. At worst, a mislynch on them harms town less than a mislynch on someone actually participating.

[AvatarVecna]

It's not surprising to hear that it's basically intentional griefing.

[Supagoof]

Spoiler: AVs post spoilered for ease of scrolling

Show

You're right. We should all shut up and not discuss strategies, that way wolves will be helpless and have no ideas on how to do things.

Us theorizing in public about mechanical strategies isn't going to prevent wolves from thinking through their own strategies, so the difference between "discuss in public" and "don't" is how much the average townie is thinking about those things. Thinking about wolf strategies leads to thinking about counter-strategies, and the more people we have talking about that, the more people we have poking holes in this plan or that plan, the more likely we are to arrive at optimal strategies. Case in point: until we started talking through what we would do as wolves, we didn't quite realize how blitzy this game was gonna be. Whether the wolves knew that was an option before is irrelevant; if they didn't know, and we didn't know, we're risking them realizing it any second by not discussing it, whereas by discussing it we might be informing them of the possibility, but we're also putting public thought into counterstrategies to minimize the chances of the worst-case scenarios.

Additionally, in most games, but in particular in short blitzy games like this one might very well be, relying on mech for everything is a fool's plan - even at double scries (or a triple scry from a lucky grocery trip), it would take too long to get all the scries we need to be sure of who all needs to die. Despite the highly mechanical nature of the game, one result of those mechanics is that town is going to live or die on analysis. And that's kinda hard to do when there's four or five players who basically aren't playing. The reason I pinged you, Kish, and Libro, was in the hopes that by getting an answer from you, I might get a peek inside your mind - use that answer to see how you're thinking, see if you're thinking how I would think, or how I would expect you to think. I can pick apart your answer. Maybe it turns out you thought of a wolf strat the rest of us didn't really consider, and it turns out to be dangerous enough that we need to plan for it. Or maybe you're a wolf and your answer might seem off to me, and I can dig into why you think this or that would be a good move for wolves. If you don't answer questions, don't give insight into your thought processes, don't put forth your own theories on alignments or strategies, then we have nothing to work with, and we have to rely on mech or the good graces of the wolves to have a chance at learning your alignment.

If the three of you are all townies who just aren't participating, town's in a much worse position than if you did. And the frustrating part is, if you're all wolves, you're probably going to win by not playing, because everybody but me is allergic to going after low-activity players until it's too late and it's LYLO and nobody has any clue what you're thinking.

So answer a hypothetical. Give a read list and some reasons. Make wild accusations you don't even believe to get a reaction. Poetry with hidden clues hinting at your leans. Anything. Please don't leave us where our only chance is to scry you or lynch you to find out. We only get so many of either, and we want to use them properly.

Fair,

I have been trained in my professional career that bad data is worse then no data, so I'm not willing to throw someone under a bus with wild accusations.

I think that Xi taking the wolf sacrifice play, kill Valmark and leave Goof in a bad light is a convenience.

So my reads, from town to wolf...

Towny...
Lady Serpentine - I'm getting good vibes on Ti being town!. Just seeing her more involved then not in the conversations.

AvatarVecna - Going through all permutation, drawing conclusions. I can't compete with AVs level of thinking on things. Only a little sus due to their heightened intelligence not picking up on the possible "Leave the police station open ripe for the picking method". Also, because I didn't think of it until after day's end either, I can't fault them for that.

Book Wombat - Confirms that everyone was at the school. Which everyone else who was there did. No other info given, possible mole in the whole probability/attended path? That logic also means any of the other could also be in the mole role as well.

Sus...
Kish - No analysis, not much to read other then general agreement of "Good plan, announce where you are going" - 4 posts.

Libro - No enough info. - 2 posts.

Bladescape - suspicions on him have everything to do with the wagons yesterday, and not his actions. The late change from Blades to Taffi again has me wondering if it's wolf save or just...I don't know.

Snowblaze - History shows I can't trust her. I can't even trust my reads on her. But hasn't given a reason this game that history is repeating itself. Except for the unwillingness to vote on a Blades wagon.

Likely wolf...
Flat_Footed - This

Ok, throwing out a theory until we get confirmation from the other rooms:

One of the two rooms with a kill had two wolves and 1 town. Killing the townie masked the missing player. That would put suspicion onto Kish/flat_footed or Supagoof/Xihirli. I know I'm town, so I'll paint suspicion onto Xi and Goof. In the case of wolf!Xi and wolf!Goof hopefully there was a scry of Xi to confirm wolf. If that was the case, I'll immediately throw heavy suspicion onto Goof.

has me pinging him likely as wolf!. For the same reason he threw paint at me, I have it back on him.

BatCatHat - And in following that same logic. Bch is pinging high on the radar.

Xihirli - was going to be #1 suspect even before scry results were announced. However, I came in late this day, so that point is moot.

Anyway, that's my total analysis so far.

[Batcathat]

Likely wolf...
Flat_Footed - This
has me pinging him likely as wolf!. For the same reason he threw paint at me, I have it back on him.

BatCatHat - And in following that same logic. Bch is pinging high on the radar.

So not just one wolf but two decided to try and throw suspicions against you instead of at least giving town a chance to discover the potential framing? Meaning that the wolves' master plan left one wolf outed and two wolves looking quite shady after you flip town. I've seen better plans.

[Xihirli]

I dunno that's an alright plan I think. Refuge in audacity "why would we do something that stupid" going for it.

[Supagoof]

Except that I'm 100% cleared by virtue of Rogan being a wolf.

Wombat, thoughts on the new edition of the Plan (4 school/3 police/3 library)? And if pairings/unpairings don't count as reads, that too. Supagoof, both of those would also be appreciated.

Also I'm now concerned by how much I'm agreeing with AV this game. (Not in a way that says anything about alignment.) Seconding everything in their last post.

NPCs are a convenient(TM) thing to claim to have got from the grocery store.

...actually, I need to check something flavoury.

- - - Updated - - -

Thought so. Two NPCs died last night, so the NPC death wasn't necessarily caused by Valmark getting one. I'm assuming it's the [redacted] from the OP.

Not sure what this actually means for Supagoof's alignment, though.

- - - Updated - - -

Also the only reason I'm allergic to killing inactives is that they have a bad habit of flipping town and leaving us no better off than we were.

Val and I chatted about the whole "Can a wolf kill NPCs thing last night, after we got our respective NPCs. We were worried that them targeting "Rod" or the one assigned to me, would cause us who are attached to lose our life. Cao confirmed this was not the case, only the NPC would die.

I'm not sure how Sparky got killed. If that was just flavor since the number of players dropped, or if the wolves have an extra "kill an NPC" action. It does mean that someone (either on wolf team or Cao) has a cruel spirit to kill a dog, especially the night after Taffi gets lynched. I expect Taffi next game to go all John Wick on the person responsible....

Yeah, nothing is convenient about last night for me.

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So not just one wolf but two decided to try and throw suspicions against you instead of at least giving town a chance to discover the potential framing? Meaning that the wolves' master plan left one wolf outed and two wolves looking quite shady after you flip town. I've seen better plans.

I was asked what my perspective is....

Same as the bad logic in wolf!Xi = town!Snowblaze. I don't buy it.

[flat_footed]

So answer a hypothetical. Give a read list and some reasons. Make wild accusations you don't even believe to get a reaction. Poetry with hidden clues hinting at your leans. Anything. Please don't leave us where our only chance is to scry you or lynch you to find out. We only get so many of either, and we want to use them properly.

I've been running the numbers on if no lynch without a proven wolf helps town more or helps the wolves more. You asked for crazy, and someone has to fill in for Xi when she's gone. Catching a wolf this early definitely helped since my math did not initially account for two town deaths night 1.

Likely wolf...
Flat_Footed - This
has me pinging him likely as wolf!. For the same reason he threw paint at me, I have it back on him.

So... basically you're rubber and I'm glue? I'm not afraid to offer up ideas and theories regardless to try and help town figure this out. All you did was literally take what I said and paraphrase it back at me.

[Batcathat]

I was asked what my perspective is....

Sure, but even if you're town, suspecting everyone suspecting you isn't the only choice. You said the wolves might be trying to frame you. Maybe you're right, but why would that make everyone supposedly believing in the framing a wolf?

Same as the bad logic in wolf!Xi = town!Snowblaze. I don't buy it.

I do agree with this, at least until Snow explains it more.

[AvatarVecna]

I've been running the numbers on if no lynch without a proven wolf helps town more or helps the wolves more. You asked for crazy, and someone has to fill in for Xi when she's gone. Catching a wolf this early definitely helped since my math did not initially account for two town deaths night 1.

You'd have to make one hell of an argument for it. "How about we just don't kill anybody and hope we can scry the wolves before they kill us" isn't a great plan in the vast majority of games.

[Xihirli]

You'd have to make one hell of an argument for it. "How about we just don't kill anybody and hope we can scry the wolves before they kill us" isn't a great plan in the vast majority of games.

I like it! It's got guts. Here, let's get going. No lynch

[bladescape]

People: Why didn't blade die?
Also people: blade is sus for d1 wagonomics

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Gonna spend some time today reading over things but there's not actually a lot of possible wolf teams.

Also whoever was expressing doubt about npcs in Grocery needs to reread the narration. It explicitly has Rod dying "With" Valmark which means Grocery was npc for all.

[Supagoof]

So... basically you're rubber and I'm glue? I'm not afraid to offer up ideas and theories regardless to try and help town figure this out. All you did was literally take what I said and paraphrase it back at me.

I'm all for other theories, science demands it. I changed my vote twice yesterday because of no good evidence.

So I'll post a longer theory for discussion....

Why did none of us see the 3 to 4 per site, leaving both the police station and the gas station watching of the police station wide open? I mean, I blindly accepted the plan proposed by Snow, didn't even occur to me the giant "wolves slide through" gap it did night 1. I'm having trouble believing none of us caught that. It did, unfortunately became glaringly obvious to Val and I, when Xi didn't show up. Hence why, when day started, seeing posts like FFs and Bchs so early in the day, pinged my radar, also because only those in areas where the wolves didn't show up or to those who are wolves does it become just as glaringly obvious. And as I write/think on this, the FF/Kish pairing for 2 wolves who offed the 3rd at their station (gac3), makes me place Bch less into wolf, and Kish more into wolf. FF/Kish confirming each others actions is more credible to town! then the 1 survivor of the grocery store. For all I know, all 3 could have gone to the police station to ensure they controlled the extra night to kill off Gac, and to kill off either Val or Goof (thinking Val got killed because I had "less reads" at this point, easier to convince others to point at me). Leave a lone person standing alone in the wind while the other two get cred.

I'm think Bch is less wolfy, because he openly accepted what FF proposed first. Bch - what lead you to the earlier conclusion that I grouped you and FF together with?

I'm never 100% certain on anything beside me own role. Those who are, know something that I don't. Placing a 100% claim on something as accepted fact = bad guidance down a path. Snowblaze - please show the reasoning why wolf!Xi = 100% town!Snowblaze should be accepted by all.

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I said yesterday that going to the grocery store with Xihirli was going to get me stabbed. Congrats Xi, you managed to do that by not even showing up there.

[flat_footed]

You'd have to make one hell of an argument for it. "How about we just don't kill anybody and hope we can scry the wolves before they kill us" isn't a great plan in the vast majority of games.

Disclaimer that this is all on mobile, I make no apologies. Read at your own risk.

Agreed, and honestly I'm not too much a fan of bringing it up since it's normally suicide for town. Essentially, it's all about getting double scries each night and giving town enough time to go through the roster. Police station, school, library need to be staffed and in a way to protect town with numbers and limit wolves stepping out for a second night kill. I'll add in the obvious that the best solution is to vote out a wolf, but I'd like to consider a few proposals. If the numbers truly are 7/4 right now, and 7/3 when Xi bites it, the two scries will give the following scenarios:

2 Town
Two people we know we can trust, depending on the night kills missing them. Having the targets be selected randomly is huge here, since wolf presence can't automatically gun down the confirmed townies or have the suspected wolves know their time is up. Every wolf kill of a townie not scried improves our chances, as the number of confirmed townies goes up.

1 Town/1 Wolf
Easy peasy lynch the following day, congrats all around for the confirmed friendly.

2 Wolves
The gold standard. Wolf lynch the next day and a night kill for the other.

Basing the following on double scries, double wolf kills.

Lynching as normal:
We'd be at 5/3 starting Day 3. A mislynch here and the wolves have a chance to go for broke Night 3 and start Day 4 at 2/3.

The game ends when all the Werewolves have been eliminated or there is no way to prevent the Werewolves from outnumbering the Village.

Wolf victory does not happen at parity, so if we get to a phase at even standing we still have a chance.

Voting No Lynch without a wolf scry or second night kill:

Day 3 starts 5/3 with up to two confirmed townies. 5(2)/3

Night 4 Wolves kill both confirmed townies leaving us at 3(2)/3 after two scries hit townies and not wolves.

Day 4 goes no lynch.

Night 4 likely produces a wolf victory but town does have a chance to vig a wolf, albeit a small one.

Now, let's say we can prevent the police station from being used, but still no wolf scries.

Lynching as normal:

Day 3 starts 6(2)/3

Night 3 starts 5(2)/3

Day 4 starts 4(2)/3

Night 4 is 3(2)/3 and a fight to the end.

Voting no lynch:

Day 3 starts 6(2)/3

Night 3 stays 6(2)/3

Day 4 starts 5(3)/3

Night 4 stays 5(3)/3

Day 5 starts 4(4)/3, with an outted wolf.

And yes, I know there are contingencies that may come up and claims regarding wolf actions that do not align with town, but we can discuss that as well. This is just a loose framework to a ****ty idea. Any scries on a wolf increase our odds considerably, so I wanted to avoid that easy way out as if town sucks at choosing targets. And I've been typing this out for too long so please let me know any math errors.

[Batcathat]

I'm think Bch is less wolfy, because he openly accepted what FF proposed first. Bch - what lead you to the earlier conclusion that I grouped you and FF together with?

What conclusion do you mean? My suspicions against you? If so, I explained that pretty well at the time, I think:

While that's possible, maybe the reason Xi is acting like she never intended to look towny is to hide the fact that a wolf buddy was supposed to confirm her nightly whereabouts, until they found out she was scried.

Yeah, that's certainly possible. I'm just thinking that a possible wolf plan (assuming Xi, Goof and BW are all wolves) would be to have Xi go to the Police station (that they picked her specifically was probably because she was the most likely scry and/or lynch target), they kill Valmark and if Xi isn't scried, they plan on having Goof confirm that she was with him, but when BW relayed the scry result, Xi started acting like she basically was on a suicide mission, in order to protect Goof.

[Xihirli]

I said yesterday that going to the grocery store with Xihirli was going to get me stabbed. Congrats Xi, you managed to do that by not even showing up there.

Of course I went to the grocery store. How ELSE could I have murdered Valmark?

[flat_footed]

I'm all for other theories, science demands it. I changed my vote twice yesterday because of no good evidence.

So I'll post a longer theory for discussion....

Why did none of us see the 3 to 4 per site, leaving both the police station and the gas station watching of the police station wide open? I mean, I blindly accepted the plan proposed by Snow, didn't even occur to me the giant "wolves slide through" gap it did night 1. I'm having trouble believing none of us caught that. It did, unfortunately became glaringly obvious to Val and I, when Xi didn't show up. Hence why, when day started, seeing posts like FFs and Bchs so early in the day, pinged my radar, also because only those in areas where the wolves didn't show up or to those who are wolves does it become just as glaringly obvious. And as I write/think on this, the FF/Kish pairing for 2 wolves who offed the 3rd at their station (gac3), makes me place Bch less into wolf, and Kish more into wolf. FF/Kish confirming each others actions is more credible to town! then the 1 survivor of the grocery store. For all I know, all 3 could have gone to the police station to ensure they controlled the extra night to kill off Gac, and to kill off either Val or Goof (thinking Val got killed because I had "less reads" at this point, easier to convince others to point at me). Leave a lone person standing alone in the wind while the other two get cred.

I'm think Bch is less wolfy, because he openly accepted what FF proposed first. Bch - what lead you to the earlier conclusion that I grouped you and FF together with?

I'm never 100% certain on anything beside me own role. Those who are, know something that I don't. Placing a 100% claim on something as accepted fact = bad guidance down a path. Snowblaze - please show the reasoning why wolf!Xi = 100% town!Snowblaze should be accepted by all.

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I said yesterday that going to the grocery store with Xihirli was going to get me stabbed. Congrats Xi, you managed to do that by not even showing up there.

The prevailing logic, at least for me, was that anyone bucking the plan would have immediate suspicion on them. Which worked, but since Xi knew she was being scried already, she could kill with impunity on her way out. Hindsight 20/20 and all that.

[AvatarVecna]

Why did none of us see the 3 to 4 per site, leaving both the police station and the gas station watching of the police station wide open? I mean, I blindly accepted the plan proposed by Snow, didn't even occur to me the giant "wolves slide through" gap it did night 1. I'm having trouble believing none of us caught that.

It's not something that was unknown, it's just that town ended up taking other priorities. Early D1 I was skeptical of how useful the hospital would even be, and was pretty vocal about how either camping the police station or watching the police station was the way forward. Even then, though, I thought the Hospital was more dependable than the Grocery Store, as can be seen in my plan, which came a good deal of time before Snow's more popular plan.

AV/BCH/Blade/Xi: Library (Scry)
BW/ff/gac: Hospital (Bane)
Kish/Serp/Libro: Gas Station (Watch)
Snow/Goof/Val: Library (Boost)

...and if I had to drop one location for even more people per place, I would drop the hospital...

I mean, I kinda would prefer if we just didn't go to the hospital since I have limited faith in baners at the best of times. The above is more me compromising with what others seem to want. If I were assigning teams as I pleased, I'd prefer a team go to the grocery store, for a 3/16 chance at another scry. something like this.

[there shouldve been a plan here that's along the lines of "swap hospital for grocery store" but it seems I didn't write it in at the time.]

Alternatively, a 5/4/4 split would also be fine, depending on how people feel. Gives us fewer locations, but makes it basically impossible for wolves to do anything but watch the results. Probably ditch grocery in that setup, so it looks something like...

AV/BCH/Blade/BW/Xi: Library (Scry)
ff/gac/Kish/Serp: Gas Station (Watch)
Libro/Snow/Goof/Val: Library (Boost)

At some point during the day, the plan that became popular was school/hospital/library/grocery store. I think the idea behind it was that town knows who went to the right locations because other people will report about it in the morning, and so we'll know if anybody abandoned their post without the need for watchers. The issue there is that it makes it hard to account for a double kill, or two wolves in one location who can fake it. Oh well. In any case, ultimately town decided that random power was better than watcher, and because we had decent odds of catching traitors without watcher anyway, I didn't feel it was worth throwing a fit over.

[Kish]

First, Xihirli, obviously.

Second, I suggest scrying flat_footed and either bladescape, Libro, or AV tonight, pretty much in descending order of preference.

Whether I'll be more active, I...promise nothing...but probably will be as this is the last day I essentially get home right before now because of working overtime.

I do promise not to go out of my way to annoy anyone by not posting.

[Xihirli]

And I promise to become a taxi driver for the unclean ocelots!

[Grand Arbiter]

First off, way to go out with style Xi. Hats off.

Second

Poetry

None of that planned, but I am going to speak my mind as I go along here.

"If my low post rate isn’t common knowledge by now, idk when it will be. The fact that it irks AV amuses me to no end."

Starting with expounding upon this. It amuses me because it feels like you think I’ll just pull a high post/participation rate out of my ass. It amuses me because the alternative is to be sad or pissed, and idk which is worse (if I don’t end up a mix of the two).

Way back when I started I was in high school, with a lot of free time. I could while away the hours composing good writing, or letting it flow. The games I played where I got to go have a blast with RP have been some of my favorites. Forum Wars 2, Phantom of the Opera, and norman250’s brotherhood ww come to mind. They were like the old games I went through, where everybody was having fun and it was more than just voting for the lynch/scheming night actions. Sorta like a good whodunit.

Last few years, college/pandemic/work/other hobbies have eaten more and more of my free time. I kept joining hoping to have another good game (and the narrators have always been fantastic). Nostalgia I suppose. It just feels like everything has shifted into becoming a logic puzzle sitting on a barrel of analysis. I’ve never done the long line of analysis posts you seem to be expecting. That’s not me.

It's not surprising to hear that it's basically intentional griefing.

If I was intentionally griefing it’d be plain as day, full stop. I’ve made poor choices, pleasemayIneverbeVigilanteagain, but I try to play it out for the win.

Furthermore I don’t mess around like that in any of my computer games, and would certainly not do so here. Not these boards.

Please don't leave us where our only chance is to scry you or lynch you to find out. We only get so many of either, and we want to use them properly.

I won’t be leaving y’all in a lurch about my identity. That can be narrator resolved.

I should’ve just swung by and said hi to everyone rather than try to play. Especially since I’m still dealing with having buried my grandmother last week. I’m a wreck held together by 6ft of metaphorical duct tape with a smile stapled on. No need to share condolences, just take a moment for the people you love irl, please.

So to friends old and new, I bid thee all adieu. Best wishes for a safe & happy 2022. Maybe I’ll join another next year, maybe I’ll keep on lurking.