Dead of Winter Mafia

[Batcathat]

Whatever division of people and locations we go for, we should probably decide pretty soon, so everyone has time to submit where they're going. If a townie gets busy and doesn't go where they're supposed to, it could make things really confusing.

Granted, I'm not sure how soon "soon" is. We should still be twentyish hours from EoD, if I understand it correctly. Leaving at least 10-12 hours for people to submit their actions seems sensible, I think.

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That would also let us focus on the lynch instead of night mechanics, which might be a good thing.

[Snowblaze]

Whatever division of people and locations we go for, we should probably decide pretty soon, so everyone has time to submit where they're going. If a townie gets busy and doesn't go where they're supposed to, it could make things really confusing.

Granted, I'm not sure how soon "soon" is. We should still be twentyish hours from EoD, if I understand it correctly. Leaving at least 10-12 hours for people to submit their actions seems sensible, I think.

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That would also let us focus on the lynch instead of night mechanics, which might be a good thing.

Agreed. I'm not too bothered about the specifics, just that we implement some version of this.

[flat_footed]

Can't trust any one person to divvy up the locations, so alphabetical seems to be a suitably random way if doing it.

We also need to select the scry/bane target.

[Batcathat]

Can't trust any one person to divvy up the locations, so alphabetical seems to be a suitably random way if doing it.

We also need to select the scry/bane target.

Maybe we just go with the person who gets the second most votes? So if the day ended right now, we'd lynch Xi and then scry Taff.

[Valmark]

Contrary to others I did not think Lady Serpentine's reading of Rogan's posts was all that convincing, and tbh voting for someone because their posts look off after you find out that they were too sick to be able to continue playing is a **** move. How about scrying Xihirli instead, so she gets a chance to play? I do find it very interesting though that it brought Bladescape out with reads to distract us when he's usually as closed as a mussel.

It'd be ****tier to ignore somebody's wolfiness because they're ill, though.

Not in a moral sense but in a tactical sense.

Why do you think my reads list was, to quote, "To distract you"?

That being said, I actually agree with voting off someone who just replaced in not being fun.

So.

Taffimai

I would also like the reply to that question.

Also I'm not clear on the reason to vote Taffimai right now.

[bladescape]

It'd be ****tier to ignore somebody's wolfiness because they're ill, though.

Not in a moral sense but in a tactical sense.


I would also like the reply to that question.

Also I'm not clear on the reason to vote Taffimai right now.

I'm voting Taff because:
1. Ego read
2. Their "distraction" argument regarding me is weird
3. So far I haven't had tbe same townish feeling I have had in previous games.
4. Threadstate feels like wolves are concerned which makes it likely that one of Taff/Xi is wolf and I want to put pressure on and see what pops.

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Anyone against Snow's idea of:

4 Seer
3 Doc
3 Boost
3 Wildcard

And then sort players alphabetically?

[Batcathat]

Anyone against Snow's idea of:

4 Seer
3 Doc
3 Boost
3 Wildcard

And then sort players alphabetically?

Sounds good to me. We can still get really unlucky (wouldn't it be funny if the wolves just happen to be in alphabetical order?) but I suspect that's the case with any plan at this point.

[AvatarVecna]

Anyone against Snow's idea of:

4 Seer
3 Doc
3 Boost
3 Wildcard

And then sort players alphabetically?

I'd prefer if Doc or Wildcard was moved to Watch, but I can live with this plan.

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Sounds good to me. We can still get really unlucky (wouldn't it be funny if the wolves just happen to be in alphabetical order?) but I suspect that's the case with any plan at this point.

Sshhhh you're not supposed to tell them the wolf team is me, you, blade, and BW. Keep quiet and we can be the seer group for the whole game.

[bladescape]

Ngl me and AV would be a scary wolf team

[AvatarVecna]

Sshhhh you're not supposed to tell them the wolf team is me, you, blade, and BW. Keep quiet and we can be the seer group for the whole game.

You know what I was joking, but while I think anything even remotely close to this would be highly unlikely, it's maybe not a bad idea to rotate who goes to what location. Like, even if all four of us are trustworthy, it would suck if the only people who know the scry results got picked off by a weird wolf play (like...idk NK, double-vig, and grocery gun).

EDIT: Just as a slight defense putting all our eggs in one basket.

[Book Wombat]

As for the distribution, couldn't we just use the forum dice-roller?

[Batcathat]

You know what I was joking, but while I think anything even remotely close to this would be highly unlikely, it's maybe not a bad idea to rotate who goes to what location. Like, even if all four of us are trustworthy, it would suck if the only people who know the scry results got picked off by a weird wolf play (like...idk NK, double-vig, and grocery gun).

Yeah, that's probably a good idea no matter how we divide ourselves.

EDIT: Just as a slight defense putting all our eggs in one basket.

As for the distribution, couldn't we just use the forum dice-roller?

That could work. It would take a little more organization than just going by the alphabet, but on the other hand it would rule out suspicions that the wolves could be pushing for that distribution knowing it'll suit them.

Does the dice roller work in this forum? Let's test: [roll]1d100[/roll]

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Hmm. So that's a "no" then.

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Also, I kind of screwed up the coding in my reply to AV (Did I also screw up the dice code?). To clarify:

You know what I was joking, but while I think anything even remotely close to this would be highly unlikely, it's maybe not a bad idea to rotate who goes to what location. Like, even if all four of us are trustworthy, it would suck if the only people who know the scry results got picked off by a weird wolf play (like...idk NK, double-vig, and grocery gun).

EDIT: Just as a slight defense putting all our eggs in one basket.

Yeah, that's probably a good idea no matter how we divide ourselves.

[Snowblaze]

Problem with agreeing to do this now is numbers change depending on which group the lynched person is in.

Let's do this, then.

@everyone:
if you are against the plan, reply to this post with an explanation of why not.
if you support this plan, reply to this post confirming your support and that you'll be considered an outed wolf if you don't follow it
if you think you won't be around before EOD, claim the location you're going to, which should be one of school/hospital/library/grocery store.

Currently it looks like this:
AV/BCH/blade/BW school
flat_footed/gac/Kish hospital
Lady Serpentine/Libro/Snowblaze/Supagoof library
Taffimai/Valmark/Xihirli grocery store.

I'm not altogether comfortable with that last group all being together if we do it that way. Think there's a chance of two wolves in there.

Reshuffle depending on who gets lynched, someone in the library shifts to the location of the lynchee and publicly declares such just before EOD. Which means at least one of that group needs to be online around EOD. It's almost certainly not going to be me. I should check time zones, though.

[AvatarVecna]

Problem with agreeing to do this now is numbers change depending on which group the lynched person is in.

Let's do this, then.

@everyone:
if you are against the plan, reply to this post with an explanation of why not.
if you support this plan, reply to this post confirming your support and that you'll be considered an outed wolf if you don't follow it
if you think you won't be around before EOD, claim the location you're going to, which should be one of school/hospital/library/grocery store.

Currently it looks like this:
AV/BCH/blade/BW school
flat_footed/gac/Kish hospital
Lady Serpentine/Libro/Snowblaze/Supagoof library
Taffimai/Valmark/Xihirli grocery store.

I'm not altogether comfortable with that last group all being together if we do it that way. Think there's a chance of two wolves in there.

Reshuffle depending on who gets lynched, someone in the library shifts to the location of the lynchee and publicly declares such just before EOD. Which means at least one of that group needs to be online around EOD. It's almost certainly not going to be me. I should check time zones, though.

I can live with this plan. I also don't mind if who goes where is assigned via forum dice roller either (beyond a vague reflexive aversion to just putting the game in the hands of the dice).

[Batcathat]

I'm not altogether comfortable with that last group all being together if we do it that way. Think there's a chance of two wolves in there.

I share this concern, but other than that I support the plan.

Reshuffle depending on who gets lynched, someone in the library shifts to the location of the lynchee and publicly declares such just before EOD. Which means at least one of that group needs to be online around EOD. It's almost certainly not going to be me. I should check time zones, though.

One option might be that enough people change their vote so we can know more or less for certain who's going to get lynched and plan accordingly. Considering how uncertain any D1 guesses tend to be, I would be okay with voting for someone who might not be my top suspect if it makes the plan work better. How does other people feel about that?

I probably won't be around for EoD either, I think it's 4 or 5 in the morning my time.

[Lady Serpentine]

I'm not especially thrilled with the Taffimai wagon, but Bladescape seems fairly townish to me at the moment, and I agree that the argument about contributing more to the game being a "distraction" is weird, especially as that's uh. Not how Bladescape plays as a wolf, historically, having been on a wolf team with him before. (A very successful one, too.)

Plus, there's the fact that she was trying to draw suspicion off the person I read as wolfiest, even besides the argument about not lynching immediately on grounds of a replacement. Which, I mean, that's totally an ego thing, because I could be wrong and that's why it just doesn't click with her. Or she could just be unimpressed even if I'm right. But I wouldn't be surprised if a wolf team facing down a lynch D1 tried to defend each other.

Also, if we're going to be using the library, I would like to suggest that the first night we use the library on itself. That way the next night we get to use it on itself and whatever we like, and permanently have a floating second boost if we find a situation where it's worth breaking the loop.

[Taffimai]

Why do you think my reads list was, to quote, "To distract you"?

I would also like the reply to that question.

This is a reads list:

Okay formal list of reads. Let me organise this list into the people who are in certain ways.

Towny:
Lady Serpentine - Last post was a solid response and her reasoning holds up. Level 1 townread but I feel it pretty strongly
Snowblaze - A few snap reads that match mine and basically the same progression on Lady slot makes me lean town.

Light Town:
Valmark - I remember Nodding to a few posts which is town indicative

Null:
Supagoof - Meh? I want to lean wolfy but the thing I want to do it for is null for Supa. Need more content
AvatarVecna - I have only successfully read wolf AV from gamestate and it's too early for that. Can be null until I get a handle on her position
gac3 - I remember none of his posts. Which means they're not sticking
Book Wombat - BW's D1 is a bit lacklustre as a whole, but that's not AI
Libro - Has Libro posted?

Light Wolf:
BatCatHat - Seems more overtly "paranoid" which I remember from our scum games together. That being said this is a wishy-washy read rn
Kish - Low posts but seemed oddly opportunistic in the reads put down. Probably the strongest of this batch
Flat_Footed - Seems reluctant to be forced from meta and I felt it was a little more wolfy of a reaction. Kinda weak but it's there.

Wolfy:
Taffimai - When Taff is town, so far, I've nodded with their posts and felt a vibe of how they play that matches my thought cadence. Have not felt that this game. Could be me confirmation Biasing because we vibed in 2 games, and that's a tiny sample size, but it definitely leans me wolf
Rogan/Xihirli - Reaction post and reads post were traditional wolfy in both an "Overexplainy" sense and a "Feels obliged to co-operate with town" sense. I feel kinda bad having this read because of the sub out but also it's there.

Obvious Wolf:
Bladescape - Just read this guy's posts, come on, obvious wolf.

...it is much more detailed and with more explanation than Bladescape usually produces Day 1. It comes at a time when I was vocally upsetting the status quo by arguing against both wagons at the time (Rogan/Xihirli and Flat-footed) and asking people to examine which of the people voting for them could be opportunistic wolves. It felt like an attempt to divert attention, "hey, look, let's consider lynching Taffimai instead of listening to her".

Guys, please give me a counterwagon that I actually want to vote for. You can choose from Lady Serpentine and anyone who's voting for me. I will self-vote if that could stop you from lynching the person who's sick or the person we all gave a hard time last game for not posting much, just because he's now posting more. I can't vouch for them being town, but they are awful wagons for today. Please let Flat-footed prove himself and scry Xihirli to see if Rogan's weird posts were because he wasn't feeling well or because he was actually a wolf. I'd also like to point out that Rogan has been a wolf before and he didn't give himself away like this.

You know what I was joking, but while I think anything even remotely close to this would be highly unlikely, it's maybe not a bad idea to rotate who goes to what location. Like, even if all four of us are trustworthy, it would suck if the only people who know the scry results got picked off by a weird wolf play (like...idk NK, double-vig, and grocery gun).

I agree that rotating who goes where is a smart idea. Let the person who scried town come up with a way to do it once you get one.

@everyone:
if you are against the plan, reply to this post with an explanation of why not.
if you support this plan, reply to this post confirming your support and that you'll be considered an outed wolf if you don't follow it
if you think you won't be around before EOD, claim the location you're going to, which should be one of school/hospital/library/grocery store.

Currently it looks like this:
AV/BCH/blade/BW school
flat_footed/gac/Kish hospital
Lady Serpentine/Libro/Snowblaze/Supagoof library
Taffimai/Valmark/Xihirli grocery store.

I think there are too many people going to the Library and not enough at the School. I'd like at least five people at the School, since it is the most important location. Two for the Library is plenty, as I'd already be happy with just one.

I also want to add that statistically, there is a higher chance that a random group of three will contain two wolves than that a group of two will contain two wolves.

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Also, if we're going to be using the library, I would like to suggest that the first night we use the library on itself. That way the next night we get to use it on itself and whatever we like, and permanently have a floating second boost if we find a situation where it's worth breaking the loop.

That's a bad idea because it delays the double scries by another night. No other place being boosted is worth that.

[Lady Serpentine]

It delays the double-scries by a night, but it also means that we get a permanent rotation of double-scries and the option to pivot to double-scry double bane some time in the future.

Also, yeah, like I said, I don't actually like any of these wagons. Even the one I'm voting for. The closest is the Rogan/Xihirli one, and that one - as you noted - has meta reasons to avoid it. They're not meta reasons I'm incredibly sympathetic to, having seen replacements get left alone waaaaaay too long when they were replacing a wolf for exactly those reasons, but since we have a reliable, open scry that we can all agree should go on her, that's an entirely viable solution. I'd love to see some alternatives too.

And to be clear, I don't think anyone actually wanted to lynch flat_footed? I know I was only voting in the hopes of getting some reads, at least, though I can't be certain about anyone else.

But, that being said, it does feel a bit like you're saying "don't lynch flat_footed for being more active!" and "do lynch Bladescape for being more active!", so can you unpack that some? I'm not sure why "X is more engaged this game" (which has slight correlation with being a wolf or a power role, and we all know which it'd be in this game, but is mostly a null read) is suspicious for one person but not another. Particularly as they both have the same reputation.

Edit: I do see what you're saying about the timing. But I got the impression that you're taking it as suspicious in general too? Might be wrong there.

[Snowblaze]

@Taffimai: the fourth person at the Library would be moved under my plan to the location of whoever's lynched. And the problem with five at the school is that it means two at some other location.

Also. A group of three containing two wolves is not as bad for town as a group of two containing two wolves. It forces wolves to murder the townie in the group.

I'm not actually sure who's voting for you rn, so vote count incoming.

[bladescape]

I'm not going to lie, I'm suddenly wondering if this is just the direct result of me playing the last few games super casually rather than Taffi being wolf.

Though I'm not nodding along with their posts this time which is part of my read.

[Valmark]

I'm voting Taff because:
1. Ego read
2. Their "distraction" argument regarding me is weird
3. So far I haven't had tbe same townish feeling I have had in previous games.
4. Threadstate feels like wolves are concerned which makes it likely that one of Taff/Xi is wolf and I want to put pressure on and see what pops.

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Anyone against Snow's idea of:

4 Seer
3 Doc
3 Boost
3 Wildcard

And then sort players alphabetically?

That makes sense aaaand nope, nothing against it.

Sounds good to me. We can still get really unlucky (wouldn't it be funny if the wolves just happen to be in alphabetical order?) but I suspect that's the case with any plan at this point.

Not only alphabetical, but also in a way that makes them land all in the same location.

Taffimai/Valmark/Xihirli grocery store.

I'm not altogether comfortable with that last group all being together if we do it that way. Think there's a chance of two wolves in there.

Reshuffle depending on who gets lynched, someone in the library shifts to the location of the lynchee and publicly declares such just before EOD. Which means at least one of that group needs to be online around EOD. It's almost certainly not going to be me. I should check time zones, though.

Hey, I like that team. Luv you taffi and Xi.

Also, if we're going to be using the library, I would like to suggest that the first night we use the library on itself. That way the next night we get to use it on itself and whatever we like, and permanently have a floating second boost if we find a situation where it's worth breaking the loop.

What I wonder is, do we actually want the ability to boost two buildings at once in exchange for not clearing two townie night 2?

But, that being said, it does feel a bit like you're saying "don't lynch flat_footed for being more active!" and "do lynch Bladescape for being more active!", so can you unpack that some? I'm not sure why "X is more engaged this game" (which has slight correlation with being a wolf or a power role, and we all know which it'd be in this game, but is mostly a null read) is suspicious for one person but not another. Particularly as they both have the same reputation.

Also curious about this.

I mostly don't wanna lynch taff on the basis that she was D1 lynched last game.

I'm not actually sure who's voting for you rn, so vote count incoming.

That'd be appreciated.

[bladescape]

I'd also like to point out that Rogan has been a wolf before and he didn't give himself away like this.

Every player is capable of giving themselves away in ways they haven't done before. I can wave all my historical accolades and all the times good players have said good things about me but that doesn't mean I can't make a stupid mistake as wolf.

"I'm better than this if I was actually a wolf" is something that actually gets used by wolves a lot. Albeit in this case you're saying it for Rogan but anyway.

I'm just pointing out that even the best players can make a mistake that gives them away.

(Actually have seen great players get away with dumb mistakes as wolf purely because town didn't think that player was capable of making a mistake like that as a wolf.)

[Valmark]

I'm not going to lie, I'm suddenly wondering if this is just the direct result of me playing the last few games super casually rather than Taffi being wolf.

Though I'm not nodding along with their posts this time which is part of my read.

I imagine you sitting at a desk with a pipe in your mouth silently humming as you look at everybody's posts.

Add a ship captain uniform for some reason.

[bladescape]

I imagine you sitting at a desk with a pipe in your mouth silently humming as you look at everybody's posts.

Add a ship captain uniform for some reason.

And here I could get a pipe and a trenchcoat at least.

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And here I could get a pipe and a trenchcoat at least.

*I thought I could get

[AvatarVecna]

(Actually have seen great players get away with dumb mistakes as wolf purely because town didn't think that player was capable of making a mistake like that as a wolf.)

except no cuz that would imply im a great player

[Snowblaze]

flat_footed 1: Xihirli
Rogan/Xihirli 3: Snowblaze, gac3, Batcathat
bladescape 3: flat_footed, Kish, Taffimai
Book Wombat 1: Book Wombat
Taffimai 4: AvatarVecna, Supagoof, bladescape, Lady Serpentine
Batcathat 1: Valmark
Kish 1: Libro

I think. Please correct me if I'm wrong somewhere. There you are, Taffimai, you have your counterwagon. Now I'd like it to go away, please.

I'm okay with the other wagons atm, second-guessing myself a lot on both but they're the closest things I have to wolfreads.

[bladescape]

except no cuz that would imply im a great player

You are though.

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Watch me get voted out because I'm active and doing things instead of being a cryptic bastard.

[Snowblaze]

Currently it looks like this:
AV/BCH/blade/BW school
flat_footed/gac/Kish hospital
Lady Serpentine/Libro/Snowblaze/Supagoof library
Taffimai/Valmark/Xihirli grocery store.

Libro claims to be going to the library. Kish also claims to be going to the library.

Valmark, AV, Batcathat and Snowblaze have all stated their support for the plan, and so will be going to where the list says unless a replacement list arrives.

Taffimai claims to be going to the Colony.

@Kish, would you be willing to switch to the hospital?

@Taffimai, are you prepared to go along with the plan (if you're not lynched) , and if so will you change to grocery store?

@everyone else, please confirm whether you're okay with the plan.

[AvatarVecna]

You are though.

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Watch me get voted out because I'm active and doing things instead of being a cryptic bastard.

"bladescape has a positive word/post ratio. They must die."

[Kish]

@Kish, would you be willing to switch to the hospital?

Sure. Hospital it is.