Dead of Winter Mafia

[Batcathat]

I still think it would be a good idea to try and get one of the wagons into a comfortable enough lead, so we can be (more or less) sure who'll be lynched and plan accordingly. Aside from making it easier to put together and follow a single plan, I think it would also eliminate some possible wolfy excuses ("Oh, I didn't see that change", "I had already submitted where I was going and then...", etc.).

So in the interest of that and with Taffimai being lead wagon I'm switching to her. I still suspect Xi (well, Rogan) more but Taff feels like an okay choice (even if I do feel bad about her getting lynched D1 twice in a row). Despite the situation being very similar to last game, something feels off about her behavior compared to that. Might be nothing, but might be wolfy.

[Snowblaze]

@Taffimai, what did you make of Lady Serpentine's post on Rogan?

You observed earlier that several people are differing from their usual activity patterns; why shouldn't bladescape fall into that? Especially since (iirc, will check) he wasn't voting for you as of that reads list.

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Also, out of those not voting for you, who are the wolves?

[Valmark]

You are though.

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Watch me get voted out because I'm active and doing things instead of being a cryptic bastard.

I'll be honest, I'm thinking of voting for you to try and avoid taff dying twice on D1. That and because that way my vote will be doing something.

You because Bat just made Xihirli's wagon not worth it.

[bladescape]

I'll be honest, I'm thinking of voting for you to try and avoid taff dying twice on D1. That and because that way my vote will be doing something.

You because Bat just made Xihirli's wagon not worth it.

Who would you like to have flip if you could absolutely pick one person right now?

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Snow, what's your Valmark read right now?

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There's a paranoid part of me that thinks BCH's last post could be w/w with Xi

[Supagoof]

Consolidating notes for simplicity. First, the PLAN

Currently it looks like this:
AV/BCH/blade/BW school
flat_footed/gac/Kish hospital
Lady Serpentine/Libro/Snowblaze/Supagoof library
Taffimai/Valmark/Xihirli grocery store.

@everyone else, please confirm whether you're okay with the plan.

I'll confirm I'm good with it. If/when Taff gets lynched, should I auto drop to the Grocery Store to ensure 3 there?

Now, the COUNT - edited from Snow's with BCH's change to Taffi wagon.
flat_footed 1: Xihirli
Rogan/Xihirli 2: Snowblaze, gac3
bladescape 3: flat_footed, Kish, Taffimai
Book Wombat 1: Book Wombat
Taffimai 5: AvatarVecna, Supagoof, bladescape, Lady Serpentine, Batcathat
Batcathat 1: Valmark
Kish 1: Libro

[Snowblaze]

If Valmark switches to bladescape I'll switch to Taffimai to save him, because I don't want him to die day one without good reasons.

And as for my read on him... somewhere between null and mildly wolfy. He hasn't done towny things yet, but I want to give him time because I don't think I would have townread him last game if I had been town.

[Batcathat]

There's a paranoid part of me that thinks BCH's last post could be w/w with Xi

I want to say that that's crazy with how much suspicions I've aired against Rogan/Xi, but with all the bussing I've seen (or done or have done upon me) the last couple of games, I guess I can see where you're coming from.

[Taffimai]

But, that being said, it does feel a bit like you're saying "don't lynch flat_footed for being more active!" and "do lynch Bladescape for being more active!", so can you unpack that some? I'm not sure why "X is more engaged this game" (which has slight correlation with being a wolf or a power role, and we all know which it'd be in this game, but is mostly a null read) is suspicious for one person but not another. Particularly as they both have the same reputation.

Edit: I do see what you're saying about the timing. But I got the impression that you're taking it as suspicious in general too? Might be wrong there.

I think it has to do with expectations. Last game after reading the Dead Chat, Flat-footed posted this:

Man, not even finished scrolling up and the number of people calling me out for staying quiet is very high. Guess I need to participate more often and earlier. Damn, ok. Message received.

He’s now doing exactly what he said he’d do, and his posts look normal. Rogan said this at the end of the game, and at the start we also had a deeper discussion about our posting habits (though that was mostly me ranting):

Next game, I'll play completely different, regardless of alignment!

He’s now posting different, and while I agree that his posts look sus, it could be him purposely trying to dominate the discussion less, or because he wasn’t feeling well. Either way, not enough to lynch him for imo.

This is Bladescape last game being explicitly asked to explain his reads:

Caoimhin vote crossed out. Thanks, Rogan!

bladescape, can you elaborate on your Taffimai townread if there's any more detail than what you already said?

(Also if bladescape and I are ever wolves together we'll just bus each other to death.)

We kinda already did this in our first game.

Taff townread:
I see post
I see thought process
I nod
I hum.
I read new post
I see thought process
I nod

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I would hardly say the read is definitive in any manner but

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Updated reads:
Rogan feels towny but my successful reads on them have been threadstate so I'm holding off for rn.

Cao is iffy.

Gac is iffy.

Book's lack of further input is definitely iffy.

I'd vote in Gac/Cao so far.

But I can also leave it where it is.

There is a glaring difference with how willing he is to go into detail this time. Sure, he might be trying to be a better townie, now, after... 14 years of playing? Or he might be bored like he says. But to me it felt more as being annoyed with either my vote for Lady Serpentine, or with my insistence that Rogan and Flat-footed are bad wagons.

For the people who will inevitably ask me why I'm so active compared to other games the answer is "It's hot and I'm bored and my gaming computer is in a place where the aircon doesn't properly get so I'll sweat to death if I try and game."

Also, then above felt like a wolf being pre-emptively defensive (especially as noone had pointed out his higher posting volume yet)

I'm not going to lie, I'm suddenly wondering if this is just the direct result of me playing the last few games super casually rather than Taffi being wolf.

Though I'm not nodding along with their posts this time which is part of my read.

...and this looks like hedging for when I inevitably flip town. Is this strong evidence of wolfing? Not by a long shot. And I am definitely not immune to the feeling that anyone who susses me must have nefarious motives. I mean, Supagoof misread my post and when he realised his mistake he just conveniently didn’t bother to remove his vote. AV is giving me ptsd by mimicking Snow last game: a random vote for Taffimai to start the game, but then she later develops a suspicion of me (and she didn’t even give a reason for it, though I’m sure by now she’d have no problem coming up with one).

Watch me get voted out because I'm active and doing things instead of being a cryptic bastard.

Did you and Snow swap accounts for this game? It would explain a lot...

@Taffimai, are you prepared to go along with the plan (if you're not lynched) , and if so will you change to grocery store?

If I am not lynched, I will go to the Police Station to shoot myself. I want town to win this time, and this would save tomorrow’s lynch. Nobody I'm paired with at any other location would want to go along with my suggestions anyway.

@Taffimai, what did you make of Lady Serpentine's post on Rogan?

You observed earlier that several people are differing from their usual activity patterns; why shouldn't bladescape fall into that? Especially since (iirc, will check) he wasn't voting for you as of that reads list.

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Also, out of those not voting for you, who are the wolves?

I already said I didn’t find her take on Rogan very convincing, it was a lot of “this is a bland general statement, which is wolfish”. I have nothing else to add. Other than that she’s growing on me, as has Valmark. See above for Bladescape.

You remember yourself pussyfooting up to “she’s a wolf” last time, right? Bladescape going “something’s off with Taffimai” “here’s a bunch of reads with her being the prime suspect” “ok now I’ll vote her” feels identical.

Out of those not voting for me? I have off feelings about you, Batcat, and Gac, and I do not like Libro’s inactivity for the same reason I never do. None stand out as definite wolves, and remember my early reads tend to be terrible. AV is setting off all of my wolf-alarms, which means she's probably town, and anyway I'm happy that she's participating Day 1 again.

[Snowblaze]

Consolidating notes for simplicity. First, the PLAN

I'll confirm I'm good with it. If/when Taff gets lynched, should I auto drop to the Grocery Store to ensure 3 there?

Yes please!

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Submitted action to go to the Library. If the Plan changes, please me know within the next three hours.

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...

I'm just going to say it even though I don't know if I believe it.

I think Taffimai's behaviour is very similar to her behaviour last game, and that implies she's town.

But I like the bladescape wagon even less.

And I don't have a confident wolfread I want to make into a wagon.

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Or maybe I'm wrong. I don't know.

I have no clue what I'm doing.

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Elaborate on why Lady Serpentine is growing on you, Taffimai?

(Also I really need to find a good way to abbreviate "Lady Serpentine".)

[Xihirli]

So I want to go to the grocery store? There's a lot of plans being thrown around there and I'm not sure which one is the one we're going with. Alphabetically sorted I go to the grocery store with Taffimai and Valmark, and then in the morning I tell you guys if one of them wasn't there?

I have a vote on Flat. Kinda still my placeholder D1 one, though. In lieu of a wolf read I like I propose we murder Flat_Footed because that's the name I picked before.

[Book Wombat]

WIS like wisdom, so you claim you want to go to school?

Rogan becoming the thing he swore to defeat.

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(Also I really need to find a good way to abbreviate "Lady Serpentine".)

Heh. Certain?

[AvatarVecna]

AV is giving me ptsd by mimicking Snow last game: a random vote for Taffimai to start the game, but then she later develops a suspicion of me (and she didn’t even give a reason for it, though I’m sure by now she’d have no problem coming up with one).

It's not exactly a strong suspicious, but it's based on activity. You're talking about post #56; at time of that post, you had three posts in-thread. I started a post with intent to push an inactive into being more active, and instead the most glaringly obvious thing was that your name was inexplicably not near the top of active posters, the way it usually is. It's not much, but it's more suspicion than I really have on anybody else.

I already said I didn’t find her take on Rogan very convincing, it was a lot of “this is a bland general statement, which is wolfish”. I have nothing else to add. Other than that she’s growing on me, as has Valmark. See above for Bladescape.

I don't necessarily disagree with you on this point, but I think it's a matter of perspective? Serp used to play more frequently back in the day, and community playstyle drifts over time.

I do not like Libro’s inactivity for the same reason I never do.

One of these days Libro is going to join a game I'm running, and I'm going to make him scum to force participation. It probably won't work.

[flat_footed]

(Also I really need to find a good way to abbreviate "Lady Serpentine".)

I'm calling her LaSer in my head.

I'm down to follow the groupthink for night locations and action. On mobile so it'll take me a bit to go back to that post, but I'm confirm both by PM and posting here my location and the relevant action to be taken.

[Lady Serpentine]

I'm calling her LaSer in my head, but C'nor would work just as well.

Actually I'd quite prefer that one not be used. I'm fine with it coming up to clarify "Hey, when would we have met?", but I changed off it for a reason.

The usual shortening I see is Ti, which I'm quite happy with.

[flat_footed]

Actually I'd quite prefer that one not be used. I'm fine with it coming up to clarify "Hey, when would we have met?", but I changed off it for a reason.

The usual shortening I see is Ti, which I'm quite happy with.

Cleared out, and Ti does sound better than LaSer.

[Lady Serpentine]

Yeah, I've been quite happy with it since a friend suggested it.

[Supagoof]

Ti it shall be to me. probably easier for me to write up a parody that way, which I normally do when talk gets too focused on game mechanics and not as much on the good time we all have playing together.

Taffi convinced me, and I know I'd probably respond the same way if I'm about to go out on a lynch. I like the passion for being in the game. So, switching my vote to Bladescape!. My reason for Taffi was just pure silliness at that point. I don't have a good read on Blades, never did, but I know his unyielding passion for Snow not being a wolf, and hers for him not being a wolf, has been their game behavior in most games. While this is not unusual behaviour - it has also resulted in games lost due to one of them being a wolf. And for that reason, I say break up the pair!

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New count
flat_footed 1: Xihirli
Rogan/Xihirli 2: Snowblaze, gac3
bladescape 4: flat_footed, Kish, Taffimai, Supagoof
Book Wombat 1: Book Wombat
Taffimai 4*: AvatarVecna, bladescape, Lady Serpentine, Batcathat
Batcathat 1: Valmark
Kish 1: Libro

*Reached the tie first.

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So I want to go to the grocery store? There's a lot of plans being thrown around there and I'm not sure which one is the one we're going with. Alphabetically sorted I go to the grocery store with Taffimai and Valmark, and then in the morning I tell you guys if one of them wasn't there?

I have a vote on Flat. Kinda still my placeholder D1 one, though. In lieu of a wolf read I like I propose we murder Flat_Footed because that's the name I picked before.

Oh crud, another reason to not want Taff dead. If she dies, I'll end up at the grocery store with Xi!

*Starts looking in inventory for armor plating for my back.*

[Taffimai]

Elaborate on why Lady Serpentine is growing on you, Taffimai?

I voted her because I was not liking the Flat-footed wagon, and looking at the three posts who voted for him I liked her "pressure vote" least. The whole of her first three posts look a lot like trying to appear busy without actually adding anything new to the discussion, a thing I find wolfish. And then it looked like she hadn't been paying enough attention to notice that Rogan had been swapped out and came up with an excuse. I also don't like her suggestion to delay empowering the School.

What changed is my realisation that the wolfy interaction between her, Bladescape and yourself (all taking turns voting Rogan, liking each other's reads, town reading each other) is about the same value as my Snow/Caoimhin/Ninja trio was last game. It's a reinforcement of mildly sus people interacting which makes me oversus them, if that makes sense.

It's not exactly a strong suspicious, but it's based on activity. You're talking about post #56; at time of that post, you had three posts in-thread. I started a post with intent to push an inactive into being more active, and instead the most glaringly obvious thing was that your name was inexplicably not near the top of active posters, the way it usually is. It's not much, but it's more suspicion than I really have on anybody else.

You were not wrong, I would usually have posted that morning or over my lunch break, but I slept late and as a result had other things to do over lunch.

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Oh crud, another reason to not want Taff dead. If she dies, I'll end up at the grocery store with Xi!

*Starts looking in inventory for armor plating for my back.*

Hide in front of Valmark, that way she'll end up behind him instead of you.

[Batcathat]

And then it looked like she hadn't been paying enough attention to notice that Rogan had been swapped out and came up with an excuse.

I can understand the rest of your arguments, but I don't really get this one. Genuinely missing the change (or misunderstanding when it'd happen) is possible for both townie and wolf and I don't really see why a wolf would fake it. Could you clarify?

Your suggestion about Snow, blade and Ti (first time I've seen a name shortened to the middle, I think) is kind of interesting though. I'll keep it in mind.

[AvatarVecna]

I can understand the rest of your arguments, but I don't really get this one. Genuinely missing the change (or misunderstanding when it'd happen) is possible for both townie and wolf and I don't really see why a wolf would fake it. Could you clarify?

There was a thing I did last game (and accused others of doing) where I pretend to be out-of-the-loop on mechanics and subtler points of the conversation. The idea behind it is that a wolf would be more engaged with the thread and is gonna reword their posts more, and that makes them less likely to make casual mistakes. Whereas a townie just posts and sometimes screws up on small stuff. Therefore, "screwing up small stuff" looks townie and is a decent wolf strat. The issue with using it is that if you (pretend to) miss big stuff, you look too casual to be helpful at best and "wolf trying too hard to look casual" at worst.

I don't personally agree with them in this instance, but I believe that's more or less where the argument is coming from.

Your suggestion about Snow, blade and Ti (first time I've seen a name shortened to the middle, I think) is kind of interesting though. I'll keep it in mind.

I'm sometimes called Vecna, but AV is much more common.

[Xihirli]

Taffi convinced me, and I know I'd probably respond the same way if I'm about to go out on a lynch. I like the passion for being in the game. So, switching my vote to Bladescape!. My reason for Taffi was just pure silliness at that point. I don't have a good read on Blades, never did, but I know his unyielding passion for Snow not being a wolf, and hers for him not being a wolf, has been their game behavior in most games. While this is not unusual behaviour - it has also resulted in games lost due to one of them being a wolf. And for that reason, I say break up the pair!

Yeah, I'll join a Bladescape counter-wagon. Let's go.

[Lady Serpentine]

Your suggestion about Snow, blade and Ti (first time I've seen a name shortened to the middle, I think) is kind of interesting though. I'll keep it in mind.

That friend likes to go with the shortest possible version of names for her nicknames.

[Xihirli]

And then it looked like she hadn't been paying enough attention to notice that Rogan had been swapped out and came up with an excuse. I also don't like her suggestion to delay empowering the School.

I will chime in on this to say that I have forgotten a few times that Rogan has been swapped out.

[Batcathat]

There was a thing I did last game (and accused others of doing) where I pretend to be out-of-the-loop on mechanics and subtler points of the conversation. The idea behind it is that a wolf would be more engaged with the thread and is gonna reword their posts more, and that makes them less likely to make casual mistakes. Whereas a townie just posts and sometimes screws up on small stuff. Therefore, "screwing up small stuff" looks townie and is a decent wolf strat. The issue with using it is that if you (pretend to) miss big stuff, you look too casual to be helpful at best and "wolf trying too hard to look casual" at worst.

I considered that, but didn't think it would fit. Looking like you haven't studied the powers in detail is one thing, looking like you didn't read a fairly obvious post is quite different. But fair enough, it's possible and even if it's not the case, it's an explanation for Taff's argument.

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That friend likes to go with the shortest possible version of names for her nicknames.

I don't think I've ever encountered anyone with a stratergy behind their nicknaming either. I think I like it.

[AvatarVecna]

Rogan/Xihirli (4): Snowblaze, gac, Batcathat, Lady Serpentine
Book Wombat (1): Book Wombat
Taffimai (3): AvatarVecna, Supagoof, bladescape
bladescape (1): flat_footed
Batcathat (1): Valmark
flat_footed (1): Rogan/Xihirli
bladescape (1): Kish
Lady Serpentine (1): Taffimai
Kish (1): Libro

What clown bastard threw this slap-dash votecount together??? Bladescape votes were split up and made the wagon look nonexistent! I'm gonna rectify this and then give them a piece of my mind!

Rogan/Xihirli (2): Snowblaze, gac3
Book Wombat (1): Book Wombat
Taffimai (4): AvatarVecna, bladescape, Lady Serpentine, Batcathat
bladescape (5): flat_footed, Kish, Taffimai, Supagoof, Rogan/Xihirli
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Kish (1): Libro

Also, while looking for all the votes, I found two things I wanna keep in mind. I'll share one of them, since I think it's funny:

Since "immediately ends the game" is apparently the thing people care about, let's talk about this instead then:

N1: 1 wolf to police station, 3 wolves to colony. Ends 7-4.
D2: Town can't decide which of four obvious wolves should be lynched. If town vote is even slightly split, wolves control the lynch. Ends 6-4.
N2: 4 wolves to police station. Ends 4-4 unless we get lucky with baner.

Oops.

In this situation, town's best strategy is to dogpile the police station to prevent two kills a night (and to force a town kill on a wolf), leaving wolves to control the bane, the library, and the grocery store during the night. Meanwhile, unless town can get ahead somehow, wolves control the lynch. With wolves lynching/baning/boosting and town NKing, it's like the teams have switched.

[Valmark]

First, bladescape. Then gotta reply to some quotes.

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Who would you like to have flip if you could absolutely pick one person right now?

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Snow, what's your Valmark read right now?

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There's a paranoid part of me that thinks BCH's last post could be w/w with Xi

Mmm... Probably you or Taff, so that I could vote the other one and know both alignments.

If Valmark switches to bladescape I'll switch to Taffimai to save him, because I don't want him to die day one without good reasons.

And as for my read on him... somewhere between null and mildly wolfy. He hasn't done towny things yet, but I want to give him time because I don't think I would have townread him last game if I had been town.

Oh yeah because Taffimai dying day one was absolutely fine last game for you :p

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Also where am I supposed to go then? Grocery store? Confirmed? I'm not gonna be around for EoD.

[Batcathat]

Assuming blade is lynched, what does that mean for The Plan (at this point I feel like it warrents capitalization)? Supagoof joins us at school?

I feel like the blade wagon kind of came out of nowhere. I should probably try to go back and reread some things. Right now I'm leaning town on him, but his behavior feels different from recent games that I'm not sure how much my instinct is worth (though for whatever it's worth, I was right last game about no wolf being that blatant).

[AvatarVecna]

Assuming blade is lynched, what does that mean for The Plan (at this point I feel like it warrents capitalization)? Supagoof joins us at school?

We keep it to alphabetical order, so wolves can't just take somebody from the middle and stick them in the school. For example.

So it would be...

AV/BCH/BW/flat_footed school
gac/Kish/Lady Serpentine hospital
Libro/Snowblaze/Supagoof library
Taffimai/Valmark/Xihirli grocery store.

(of course, this at least partially depends on Taff sticking to the plan and not going to the police station. So who knows what would happen.

I feel like the blade wagon kind of came out of nowhere. I should probably try to go back and reread some things. Right now I'm leaning town on him, but his behavior feels different from recent games that I'm not sure how much my instinct is worth (though for whatever it's worth, I was right last game about no wolf being that blatant).

You're not wrong. The blade wagon used to be ff's early-day vote, and one semi-serious vote from kish with no argument, and now four people have manifested on it with ~8 hours to EoD. This is easily the strongest case for lynching Taff, if I'm honest.

[Batcathat]

We keep it to alphabetical order, so wolves can't just take somebody from the middle and stick them in the school. For example.

While you have a point, the problem with doing it this way is that it requires flat to be online at the right time to change his destination when we know who's getting lynched. Which might not be an issue, but if it is, it can screw things up.

So I guess it comes down to which replacement method is less likely to screw us. I'm honestly not sure.

[AvatarVecna]

And short of the other 1-off voters showing up, or everybody on the Xi/Taff wagons joining one wagon, there's not much we can do about it. You and I are already on the biggest counterwagon.