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  1. - Top - End - #91
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by pendell View Post
    Point of order, the international space station is not "our" space station. It is a joint venture between the US, Canada, the EU, Japan, and the Russian Federation.
    With the vast majority of the cost being covered by the United States, crewed mostly by US astronauts (we have had more crew on the ISS than nearly all other nations combined. The only other country that even comes close is Russia), and we're the ones who banned China from participation.

    Yes, it is an international venture, but if someone wants to have a measuring contest its not out of hand to claim that as one of our accomplishments.
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  2. - Top - End - #92
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    I don't care who sent it, I care about what and more importantly who gets to space (to orbit at minimum, I'm not counting tourists who might as well be under weather balloons).
    If the tourism doesn't count, then the suborbital weapon shots definitely don't count.

    I'd put some exploration value on reliably sustaining people in space, though. Yeah, it probably shouldn't count as much as a space station mission or putting stuff into orbit...and counting higher orbits as worth more than lower orbits is reasonable, because it requires a lot more work to get them there. Mass to LEO is a decentish point of standardization, because anything that can deliver x pounds to Mars can deliver many times that to LEO.

    Quote Originally Posted by pendell View Post
    Point of order, the international space station is not "our" space station. It is a joint venture between the US, Canada, the EU, Japan, and the Russian Federation. I know there are specifically Russian modules, built and launched by them, just as there are modules and astronauts from the other players. I know that recent world events have called the arrangement into question, with the Russians threatening to stop resupplying or transferring western astronauts to/from orbit with their Progress rockets, forcing us to rely solely on the SpaceX missions. That threat seems to have died away for the moment, perhaps because all players realize they have more to lose by such an action than to gain.
    That is certainly true, and with the loss of the shuttle, USG contributions to the ISS dropped off, relying on other partners or SpaceX. That's a good argument for replacing the shuttle.

    Composition of the ISS is eight US modules, six Russian modules, two Japanese modules, and one European module. All of them are valuable, but say, the EU module would not make a good station on its own, whereas the ISS would be completely fine with the loss of the modules. Only the US and Russia possess the ability to make a functional, albeit smaller station out of their own modules. Splitting would definitely hinder a lot of the science, though. I don't think the astronauts on any side want to do that, it's purely other considerations.

    If one divided it up by nation that lifted a component to space, it is far more one sided, with only a handful of missions being non US. The EU's module, for instance, was lifted via US Shuttle. For larger components, a lot of rockets simply don't have the space in the fairing for a payload of that size. That's one of the big reasons to be excited for the SpaceX Starship. It's got the largest fairing space yet, so it allows us to construct larger modules.

    The ISS is the best station around, but we'll eventually need a successor, I think. At least some gravity seems necessary for a long stay, so we'll probably need it to have some spin if we want people to live there longer term. Astronauts have to work pretty hard to maintain condition adequately for even a short ISS stay.
    Last edited by Tyndmyr; 2022-04-29 at 09:09 AM.

  3. - Top - End - #93
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    That is certainly true, and with the loss of the shuttle, USG contributions to the ISS dropped off, relying on other partners or SpaceX. That's a good argument for replacing the shuttle.
    Given that SpaceX provides the same services as the shuttle, for less money (including their profit) than it cost to fly a space shuttle, that really isnt a good argument for "replacing" the shuttle.

    You can do the shuttle better... but that's going to have to compete with a certian project in Texas. Better to just charter flights to space like the rest of the goverment charters commercial flights around the world.

  4. - Top - End - #94
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by Rakaydos View Post
    Given that SpaceX provides the same services as the shuttle, for less money (including their profit) than it cost to fly a space shuttle, that really isnt a good argument for "replacing" the shuttle.

    You can do the shuttle better... but that's going to have to compete with a certian project in Texas. Better to just charter flights to space like the rest of the goverment charters commercial flights around the world.
    Imean, the shuttle was originally designed to do better, and then ran into the "too many cooks in the kichten" problem. And I'm going to leave the details at that, but it was supposed to be much better than it was.

    Also, the shuttle replica at USSRC is currently down for cleaning/maintenance so I get it make jokes about Huntsville crime and shuttle theft. Not related to anything, but it tickles me.
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  5. - Top - End - #95
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by Rakaydos View Post
    Given that SpaceX provides the same services as the shuttle, for less money (including their profit) than it cost to fly a space shuttle, that really isnt a good argument for "replacing" the shuttle.

    You can do the shuttle better... but that's going to have to compete with a certian project in Texas. Better to just charter flights to space like the rest of the goverment charters commercial flights around the world.
    SpaceX absolutely does do better, but it's still sole source. Yeah, we were sole source back when only shuttles were really doing missions, too. When everything got grounded after Columbia, this caused a lot of problems because of resupply issues. If a similar thing happens with SpaceX, we might see a repeat of that. Better to have a few options on the table.

    This isn't so much an argument for specifically the USG doing it, as it is for more replacement options in general. The "too many cooks in the kitchen" problem might well recur with a USG shuttle replacement, and in any case, NASA does not enjoy the funding it used to.

  6. - Top - End - #96
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    SpaceX absolutely does do better, but it's still sole source. Yeah, we were sole source back when only shuttles were really doing missions, too. When everything got grounded after Columbia, this caused a lot of problems because of resupply issues. If a similar thing happens with SpaceX, we might see a repeat of that. Better to have a few options on the table.

    This isn't so much an argument for specifically the USG doing it, as it is for more replacement options in general. The "too many cooks in the kitchen" problem might well recur with a USG shuttle replacement, and in any case, NASA does not enjoy the funding it used to.
    Before SpaceX, we heavily used Russian launch vehicles to get into space. Soyuz rockets still work fine if we need.
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  7. - Top - End - #97
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by Peelee View Post
    Yes, it is an international venture, but if someone wants to have a measuring contest its not out of hand to claim that as one of our accomplishments.
    What I was and am saying is that there shouldn't be measuring contests in space. Space colonisation is about humans in space, and eventually it should be about all humans in space being their own nation to start with, if they have any national allegiance at all, which they probably shouldn't and wouldn't have.
    The end of what Son? The story? There is no end. There's just the point where the storytellers stop talking.

  8. - Top - End - #98
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    What I was and am saying is that there shouldn't be measuring contests in space. Space colonisation is about humans in space, and eventually it should be about all humans in space being their own nation to start with, if they have any national allegiance at all, which they probably shouldn't and wouldn't have.
    On the contrary, I would expect a national consciousness to form due to shared interest; those living in space would face challenges which those on earth simply don't; unique environmental challenges would result in unique culture, unique customs, and would probably result in a demand for self government. To put this in terrestrial terms, it isn't a brilliant idea for civilians living in Anchorage to have all their rules set by people living in Honolulu.

    Then, too, there's the simple fact of gravity. People born in lunar or orbital gravity probably *can't* come down to Earth and take their seats in a governing body. Likewise, if governing the Moon or an L5 satellite means eventual loss of conditioning for earth-gravity, politicians from earth will be extremely reluctant to make that trip. They'll either exile their no-hopers to permanently live in space -- which will not make the orbital people happy -- or else the Terran administration will be short-term, a series of revolving-door executives who are for the most part ceremonial while the real work is done by long-service deputies born in space.

    Barring artificial gravity or some other method of allowing humans to permanently transition between orbital space and earth without long-term ill effects, autonomy, probably independence, is all but certain for the people living there. It's just not going to be feasible for a Terran-based government to govern them effectively.

    Although perhaps autonomy is more likely than independence; unless and until we can find some way to be self-sufficient in space Earth has a lock on things like water, oxygen, and food needed by the orbital peoples. In historic terms, this is called a hydraulic empire. Historically, water empires were among the most absolute despotisms because the governing authorities had a monopoly on water, and could simply turn it off if anyone was rebellious. This meant rebellion was nearly impossible, and the resulting state was near-absolute in its authority.

    Still, it seems unlikely that the orbital people would submit to any kind of despotism for long. For one thing, the gravity issue means the earth-based government can't govern effectively. For another, both the moon and LEO are on the top of a gravity well. It's easier to drop stuff like rocks down on Earth than it is to lift weapons back up the gravity well without being intercepted.

    So: The earthlings can't effectively govern orbit but can literally strangle orbit with an embargo. The orbitals can conduct terror bombings but they'll never have the ability to *conquer* earth. Again, the gravity would weaken them. Also, they would never, ever have the numbers.

    This implies some sort of detente between mutually autonomous states; neither has the power to conquer the other but equally each has something the other needs. This implies periods of peace interspersed with the occasional turf-dispute war and maybe the occasional decades long period when one dominates the other. But ultimately the stable outcome must be mutual interdependence and autonomy between separate peoples. Not unity either through brotherly love or military conquest.

    For this discussion I am indebted to The Man Who Pulled Down the Sky , by John Barnes, and The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress , by. R.A. Heinlein. Both put a lot of thought into this sort of thing. Yeah, Heinlein's a nut but when he's talking space and not politics he's well worth listening to.

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
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  9. - Top - End - #99
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    What I was and am saying is that there shouldn't be measuring contests in space. Space colonisation is about humans in space, and eventually it should be about all humans in space being their own nation to start with, if they have any national allegiance at all, which they probably shouldn't and wouldn't have.
    Oh, I completely agree. But since suhc a measuring contest was introduced in this thread with regards to China, I felt it at least somewhat pertinent as to that.
    Quote Originally Posted by pendell View Post
    [lots]
    Science fiction writers, for the most part, have not experienced the Overview Effect, which by all accounts is quite powerful. I am far more interested in what people who have experienced this feel about the future of space travel and colonization.
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  10. - Top - End - #100
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by pendell View Post
    On the contrary, I would expect a national consciousness to form due to shared interest; those living in space would face challenges which those on earth simply don't; unique environmental challenges would result in unique culture, unique customs, and would probably result in a demand for self government. To put this in terrestrial terms, it isn't a brilliant idea for civilians living in Anchorage to have all their rules set by people living in Honolulu.
    Undeniably true, but this will take a long time to get the permanent numbers up in space. Especially with modern communications, you would expect the people to feel loyalty to their homeland- clearly people living in orbit will need some autonomy. And let me just leave this disclaimer here: "This is all speculation. I don't claim any special insight into the future."

    Barring artificial gravity or some other method of allowing humans to permanently transition between orbital space and earth without long-term ill effects, autonomy, probably independence, is all but certain for the people living there. It's just not going to be feasible for a Terran-based government to govern them effectively.
    Have you ever heard of spin gravity? Designs for this type of station have existed for a long time, and are still being proposed. Once you get much beyond the ISS level of space station, you can generate artificial gravity via spin, so there's no split between "people who live in gravity" and "people who don't." There's differences, clearly, but not some sort of fundamental bar to immigration from one to the other.

    Still, it seems unlikely that the orbital people would submit to any kind of despotism for long. For one thing, the gravity issue means the earth-based government can't govern effectively. For another, both the moon and LEO are on the top of a gravity well. It's easier to drop stuff like rocks down on Earth than it is to lift weapons back up the gravity well without being intercepted.
    Okay, everything you said is true, but, you fail to consider two factors.
    1. If you are seriously colonizing orbit, you have a way to get stuff and people up there quickly and cost-effectively.
    2. The earth is very large.

    In space, every single gram counts, and mass is your primary limitation on what you can do. Earth doesn't have that problem. Being on the right side of a gravity well is nice, but it's not the sort of overwhelming advantage that the resource capacity of the Earth is, compared with the orbital infrastructure in the short to medium term. You can mass-driver tungsten rods from orbit, but most of the velocity is coming from the "mass driver" part of that equation, not the "from orbit" part. And earth has a lot more tungsten than you do. (not even counting the human and institutional capital in earth's militaries that orbit won't have for a long time)

    So: The earthlings can't effectively govern orbit but can literally strangle orbit with an embargo. The orbitals can conduct terror bombings but they'll never have the ability to *conquer* earth. Again, the gravity would weaken them. Also, they would never, ever have the numbers.

    This implies some sort of detente between mutually autonomous states; neither has the power to conquer the other but equally each has something the other needs. This implies periods of peace interspersed with the occasional turf-dispute war and maybe the occasional decades long period when one dominates the other. But ultimately the stable outcome must be mutual interdependence and autonomy between separate peoples. Not unity either through brotherly love or military conquest.
    If we accept your premises, (space colonists cannot immigrate to earth, earth cannot govern space) in the long term, the orbital people crush earth. Why? Because in the long term, you don't colonize planets or the orbits of planets. You colonize the Sun. There a two questions you must ask, to weather or not you want to colonize the sun:
    1. Do you care at all about capturing more of the sun's output?
    2. Can you put 1 mirror in orbit around the sun?

    Once you have the capacity to begin producing power satellites, (mirrors direct light to power satellites, satellites produce energy) and have sufficient automation, you can begin the process of capturing 100% of the Sun's output - thermodynamics limiting, of course.

    You can use that power to make magnetic fields that can draw the plasma (ionized gas) from the sun and turn that into something useful. You destroy the entirety of Mercury in this process as raw materials, as this is a Big ProjectTM.

    This is project that takes centuries, but it is in the nature of life, and humanity, to grow, and expand. If, in the long term there is some sort of fundamental split between people who live on Earth and the people who live in space, I highly doubt that the people in space will meekly stay in their habitats, not growing or expanding or trying to claim the resources that are up there.

    The Dyson sphere. I am proposing the Dyson Swarm Variant.

    The sun outputs ~10^9 times as much energy as Earth receives. This is the same problem that orbit had trying to fight earth in the previous example, reversed. All that is required is the proper application of overwhelming force.

  11. - Top - End - #101
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by Peelee View Post
    Science fiction writers, for the most part, have not experienced the Overview Effect, which by all accounts is quite powerful. I am far more interested in what people who have experienced this feel about the future of space travel and colonization.
    There are a couple different points I want to make to this.

    1) I'm not counting on a single psychological event, however powerful, to overcome however many ages there have been of human biology/evolution/adaptation.

    Ants farm , Keep livestock , pillage each other for resources , even enslave other ants . All of these have some sometimes-really-sad echoes with the human past.

    Yet there are ant colonies in space. Do they behave differently? Not really . Environmental adaptation to changed conditions yes. Change the basic biology imperative or the ground fact that it's easier to make a living by plundering others than by wresting a living from nature itself, no.

    The closest parallel I can think of is when the Europeans discovered there were whole continents of which they were previously unaware. It did not turn them into pacifists or give them a consciousness of being 'all one people'. If anything, globalization sparked even greater rivalries than they did before , as British and French et al squared off over their rivalries in India and North America just as they had in Europe.

    2) We may find the Overview effect is somewhat overstated because the sample is biased. As of this date there have been some 562 people in space since Yuri Gagarin in 1961, some six decades ago. That's a fraction so much smaller than the seven-plus-billion people on earth I'm not even going to bother to calculate it. It's a number so small we can still list them individually by name! And that fraction has been carefully curated, selected for skills, fitness, education and mental aptitude. There's never been a felony crime in space, nor a murder, not even any obvious theft.

    Is that really an effect of space, or is it an effect of the kinds of people we've been putting into space to avoid just those bad behaviors?

    And once we start putting ordinary people into space, are they going to live up to this standard or regress to the mean?

    I'm betting on the second. Jeff Bezos has been to space. Yet his terrestrial employees still are confronted with devices that control every minute of their work day and track time they're logged out as "time off task", with penalties if its too long.

    Do I see a person like this having a change of heart just because his serfs-in-all-but-name are moved to orbit instead of terrestrial warehouses? I do not.

    You're a lawyer by profession, right? There's never been a need for a lawyer in space. Never a personal injury , never a divorce, never a criminal proceeding. But if emigration to space ever becomes a possibility and you go, I'd strongly advise keeping your license current . I think we'll be needing your skills.

    3) Related to that, I would argue you don't need to go into space to experience the Overview effect. I grew up looking at pictures of that big, blue ball in encyclopedias, seen on my tv, and been to the big theater at the Smithsonian where they show The Dream Is Alive . I grew up watching Star Trek. I grew up more full of the idea of humans as being united by a single government far more than I grew up animated by the nationalism of my own country.

    That was my upbringing in the 1970s and early 1980s, space conscious and with pictures of the earth in my room just as if it was a family. That upbringing wasn't exactly uncommon in America in that time period.

    :Waves vaguely at the past half century due to forum rules:

    I don't see any obvious way that the Overview window has had such an effect as you suggest. Made a renewed interest in ecology and renewables, yes. Made a generation of billionaires crazy for space such as Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos , yes. But ... well, those billionaires are still what they are. Still hungry for status, still competing with each other, still grinding little people into the dirt. Just on a different stage.


    4) There's another fundamental point I think is being missed: The "Overview effect" is supposed to trigger a realization that we're all in this together because we all live on this big, beautiful ball. But for someone born in orbit or space, that is not true. They AREN'T in this with us because they ARE different. And if gravity has the effect it does , they are cut off from the people on that blue globe with no realistic hope of ever joining them. Far from a symbol of unity, having that big, blue planet looming overhead with its teeming billions may prove to be a symbol of oppression rather than a symbol of hope and unity.

    I think that moving permanently to orbit or space such as the moon will result in permanent, long-term physiological effects which will give humans yet one more reason for rivalry, along with skin color, hair color, skull shape, jawline, occupation, religion, membership in a rival bureaucracy (the feud between Army and Navy is legendary -- and not just in one country), or favorite fandom (Star Wars fans vs. Star Trek fans, Tolkien fans vs. Game of Thrones fans). If you've ever seen toxic fandom, humans who agree on almost everything , who are different from their parent cultures, still find ways to make differences and hate each other. Even over who is the best Star Trek captain (clearly Picard, but I digress).

    Humans are incredibly good at finding ways to set up their own little tree clubhouses and locking out other humans as strangers. I don't see them suddenly losing that inventiveness in space.

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
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  12. - Top - End - #102
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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Ants are not capable of abstract thought. This is a rather major difference between humans and ants. I would not expect ants to even understand what was happening, much less experience a cognitive shift.

    Further, some people are simply wired differently. Yes, we have a very small sample size, but the overview effect seems to have the same shift in all who experience it, despite those people running the gamut across myriad demographic spectrums. I would argue that simply being a billionaire already requires a previous cognitive shift that allows them to exploit people on such a massive scale, and probably interferes with how normal people experience the overview effect. That's just my opinion, of course.

    That all being said, I still put zero stock in what science fiction authors might think about interplanetary politics, despite their impressive credentials in.....? Interesting stories are great. I love reading and watching sci-fi. I don't for a second think anyone involved will have even the slightest idea of what to expect if and when we actually get a moonar or martian colony.
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    Concerning the Overview Effect, more than one American astronaut or former astronaut has been convicted of felonies committed on the ground. (I am aware of two.)

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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by Peelee View Post
    That all being said, I still put zero stock in what science fiction authors might think about interplanetary politics, despite their impressive credentials in.....? Interesting stories are great. I love reading and watching sci-fi. I don't for a second think anyone involved will have even the slightest idea of what to expect if and when we actually get a moonar or martian colony.
    That is true. But if we have to go on the evidence we have, I'm more convinced by the thousands of years humanity have spent dividing into tribes and squabbling with each other than a handful accounts of the Overview effect (especially in the long run. Life-changing revelation today might not seem that important tomorrow).

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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidSh View Post
    Concerning the Overview Effect, more than one American astronaut or former astronaut has been convicted of felonies committed on the ground. (I am aware of two.)
    Are you under the impression that the overview effect was supposed to turn people into paragons of goodness?
    Quote Originally Posted by Batcathat View Post
    That is true. But if we have to go on the evidence we have, I'm more convinced by the thousands of years humanity have spent dividing into tribes and squabbling with each other than a handful accounts of the Overview effect (especially in the long run. Life-changing revelation today might not seem that important tomorrow).
    That's fair. I may just be wildly optimistic.
    Last edited by Peelee; 2022-04-30 at 12:50 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Peelee View Post
    Are you under the impression that the overview effect was supposed to turn people into paragons of goodness?
    Why, I suppose I am. Do you care to enlighten me otherwise?

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    Default Re: Sell the SLS/Artemis/Orion program to me

    Quote Originally Posted by Peelee View Post
    Before SpaceX, we heavily used Russian launch vehicles to get into space. Soyuz rockets still work fine if we need.
    While specific discussions of the difficulties of those are probably outside the scope of this forum, I think it is safe to say that they are not an accessible option at this time. In the future...who knows? Lots of stuff needs to shake out, but I don't think we can rely on their consistent availability for a good while at least.

    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    What I was and am saying is that there shouldn't be measuring contests in space. Space colonisation is about humans in space, and eventually it should be about all humans in space being their own nation to start with, if they have any national allegiance at all, which they probably shouldn't and wouldn't have.
    Oh, sure. Colonies often end up eventually becoming their own country. I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually get to some sort of Expanse like scenario with different factions, effectively nations and nation-like groups with substantial independence. A lot of that is just distance. If you're a several month trip away, you end up having to make decisions locally.

    That's some distance away, though. Right now, most spaceflight is, in practice, satellites, almost all of which are orbiting earth and serving needs for people here. Thus, spaceflight remains very earth-centric. I'd love for us to get to that sci-fi world, but we have a lot to do before we make that leap.

    Quote Originally Posted by Argis13 View Post
    Have you ever heard of spin gravity? Designs for this type of station have existed for a long time, and are still being proposed. Once you get much beyond the ISS level of space station, you can generate artificial gravity via spin, so there's no split between "people who live in gravity" and "people who don't." There's differences, clearly, but not some sort of fundamental bar to immigration from one to the other.
    I do hope we build such a station. It's possible to do it even within the limits of Starship-sized fairing spaces by attaching a counterweight to a station by a cable and spinning it up. This is mechanically more complex than a non-orbiting station, and it makes docking, etc more challenging, but I think it's something we probably need to start working on.

    That's one of those big barriers to orbital colonization. So long as folks have the muscle atrophy issue even with fairly routine workouts, it's a big obstacle to living there.

    Quote Originally Posted by Peelee View Post
    That all being said, I still put zero stock in what science fiction authors might think about interplanetary politics, despite their impressive credentials in.....? Interesting stories are great. I love reading and watching sci-fi. I don't for a second think anyone involved will have even the slightest idea of what to expect if and when we actually get a moonar or martian colony.
    I don't think anyone's arguing that Dune or the like is specifically predictive, merely that conflict is fairly likely. It's existed in all contexts, predicting the end of it is the sort of prediction that has happened a great many times and has always disappointed. It'd be great if it happened, but it is a very unlikely prediction, and expecting humans to keep being, well, human, is a pretty likely bet.

    I have no doubt that one gets a sense of scale and the fragility of humanity by such a perspective, but a similar sensation can be experienced by looking out over the vastness of the ocean, and ocean-goers are not inherently peaceful. Even if one argues that the scale is greater, the mechanism by which this would be achieved seems unclear.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    Oh, sure. Colonies often end up eventually becoming their own country. I wouldn't be surprised if we eventually get to some sort of Expanse like scenario with different factions, effectively nations and nation-like groups with substantial independence. A lot of that is just distance. If you're a several month trip away, you end up having to make decisions locally.

    That's some distance away, though. Right now, most spaceflight is, in practice, satellites, almost all of which are orbiting earth and serving needs for people here. Thus, spaceflight remains very earth-centric. I'd love for us to get to that sci-fi world, but we have a lot to do before we make that leap.

    I do hope we build such a station. It's possible to do it even within the limits of Starship-sized fairing spaces by attaching a counterweight to a station by a cable and spinning it up. This is mechanically more complex than a non-orbiting station, and it makes docking, etc more challenging, but I think it's something we probably need to start working on.

    That's one of those big barriers to orbital colonization. So long as folks have the muscle atrophy issue even with fairly routine workouts, it's a big obstacle to living there.
    I would say it's long past the time for that. The Apollo Program was 50 years ago. So far, we've sunk Skylab and are about to sink the ISS, space colonisation shouldn't be science fiction at this point, but it still is. Space: 1999 was a TV series in the 1970s. We still aren't anywhere near that advanced in space colonisation.

    I don't think anyone's arguing that Dune or the like is specifically predictive, merely that conflict is fairly likely. It's existed in all contexts, predicting the end of it is the sort of prediction that has happened a great many times and has always disappointed. It'd be great if it happened, but it is a very unlikely prediction, and expecting humans to keep being, well, human, is a pretty likely bet.
    Sure, evolution and natural selection is what it is, there will always be competition, but we ought to be in space in a much bigger way than we are by now. By the time we get to the far side of the galaxy, the people on one side won't be able to breed with those on the other side, but they'll all be earth-life (supposing we don't meet aliens, which is an unknown).
    The end of what Son? The story? There is no end. There's just the point where the storytellers stop talking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    I would say it's long past the time for that. The Apollo Program was 50 years ago. So far, we've sunk Skylab and are about to sink the ISS, space colonisation shouldn't be science fiction at this point, but it still is. Space: 1999 was a TV series in the 1970s. We still aren't anywhere near that advanced in space colonisation.
    Yeah, USG space exploration has definitely turned away from colonization. Robotic probes and stuff have taken its place. This is cool, and is of some use of course, but our best hope for colonization probably lies with SpaceX and competitors. Currently, the roster of competitors is pretty thin, with the best of them having a mere handful of launches, but they are all aiming for bigger and better things.

    Heck, if you have the large pile of money, you can actually commission a Mars flight from SpaceX right now. I do not have a pile of money that large, but this is the first time in history that this has been a sort of practical option for anyone.

    It is kind of sad that we went to the moon, and then...stopped. But at least there's now hope for a resumption of it.

    Sure, evolution and natural selection is what it is, there will always be competition, but we ought to be in space in a much bigger way than we are by now. By the time we get to the far side of the galaxy, the people on one side won't be able to breed with those on the other side, but they'll all be earth-life (supposing we don't meet aliens, which is an unknown).
    Presuming we started on earth, of course. Panspermia still gets tossed about from time to time. Dunno that it can be proven in any real way, but I suppose some uncertainty is likely to persist about our ultimate origins.

    Not really disagreeing about the nature of exploration, just rambling.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    Presuming we started on earth, of course. Panspermia still gets tossed about from time to time. Dunno that it can be proven in any real way, but I suppose some uncertainty is likely to persist about our ultimate origins.
    It's pretty much proved that life on Earth started with blue-green algae. If you want to argue that blue-greens came from space you need a way for them to survive re-entry, or is that entry? They are very simple, everything complex is native to Earth.
    The end of what Son? The story? There is no end. There's just the point where the storytellers stop talking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    I would say it's long past the time for that. The Apollo Program was 50 years ago. So far, we've sunk Skylab and are about to sink the ISS, space colonisation shouldn't be science fiction at this point, but it still is. Space: 1999 was a TV series in the 1970s. We still aren't anywhere near that advanced in space colonisation.
    We also should have hoverboards and flying cars long time ago among other inventions. Thing is, just like with fusion power plants the old estimations of the future did not account for how complicated some of the tasks are. More often than not, writers creating those SF series did not even bother with specific estimates - they wanted something for their story, so they put it in. On the other hand, we had many completely unforeseen advancements that are far beyond what old SF writers or futurologists predicted.

    Right now most of technological progress is driven by the economy - if it is profitable, there will be money invested in it. So far, space colonization is not going anywhere for two reasons:
    1. We still did not figure out how to keep people safe and healthy out there for longer periods of time. And this is not a single problem - there are loads of serious issues with it.
    2. Investments would need to be huge and possible gains very unsure and in a too long time to consider, if there are better options available.

    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    It is kind of sad that we went to the moon, and then...stopped. But at least there's now hope for a resumption of it.
    Moon exploration and the whole space race was a political game of one-upmanship between USA and USSR. Once that political drive went away it stopped as there was no more reason to funnel piles of money into it.

    For scientific purposes probes are far better and - more importantly - cheaper. So we did a lot of stuff like landing probes on different planets, moons and comets. Sending missions beyond the solar system (thanks to a very favorable alignment of planets), others close to the sun... We also greatly increased our capabilities of observing the universe remotely with ever-better telescopes and recently we even started detecting gravity waves. Since scientific funds are always scarce, cost-efficiency is always a top priority. So there is not much going on with human missions. Now private ventures are in the space game, so things are changing again as rich people have different priorities and are again in a game of one-upmanship with each other (remember the race between space companies to go to space?) and/or trying make a name for themselves in history. Let's see where it leads us.
    Last edited by Radar; 2022-05-03 at 05:14 AM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    It's pretty much proved that life on Earth started with blue-green algae. If you want to argue that blue-greens came from space you need a way for them to survive re-entry, or is that entry? They are very simple, everything complex is native to Earth.
    Yeah, panspermia isn't about advanced life travelling so much as very, very primitive live travelling. Less exciting that little green men, I suppose.

    Some lifeforms are hardy enough to survive space, and depending on the location, could survive atmospheric entry aboard a comet or meteorite. We've demonstrated that you can get RNA strands via UV radiation bombardment, and space has a fair bit of that, so that seems as if it would be quite common. The Rosetta mission was supposed to support or debunk it, and the results gathered appear to support it.

    Now granted, RNA strands are...more of a precursor to life rather than life, depending on where you draw that line. *Extremely* primitive. So, you could reasonably say that we all came from space, sort of.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tyndmyr View Post
    So, you could reasonably say that we all came from space, sort of.
    We are all made of star dust.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Torath View Post
    We are all made of star dust.
    We are stardust
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    Yeah, but it ain't magic.
    The end of what Son? The story? There is no end. There's just the point where the storytellers stop talking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Radar View Post
    Since scientific funds are always scarce, cost-efficiency is always a top priority.
    Find a really good military application that can't be duplicated with ground tech & watch the money roll in. Better & smaller satellites for example.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    Yeah, but it ain't magic.
    I'd say that it's even better than magic - it's observable, tangible, real whether we clap our hands or not. We are totally made from stuff that exploded from giant stars billions of years ago and it is an amazing fact. Figuring out a mystery does not make it any less beautiful.

    This is just a short rant on how I find the world around us unspeakably fascinating.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Radar View Post
    I'd say that it's even better than magic - it's observable, tangible, real whether we clap our hands or not. We are totally made from stuff that exploded from giant stars billions of years ago and it is an amazing fact. Figuring out a mystery does not make it any less beautiful.

    This is just a short rant on how I find the world around us unspeakably fascinating.
    I'm thinking of magic as science we haven't thought of yet, which is even better.
    The end of what Son? The story? There is no end. There's just the point where the storytellers stop talking.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    I'm thinking of magic as science we haven't thought of yet, which is even better.
    Actually, if you go far enough back , magic and science were the same thing . Here's a short youtube video on the subject.

    There was a time before the scientific method when "doing cool stuff" was simply a bag of tricks passed down. And, before there was such a thing as a modern university, people didn't publish their findings openly for everyone to build on. Instead, they'd hide them away in their own temples or secret societies, which would be taught to initiates as 'secret arts'. You've heard of the Egyptian magicians? One of their tricks was the world's oldest battery .

    So there's a lot of overlap between what we today think of as two distinct disciplines: "Magic" and "science". Before the scientific method, no one knew for sure why these things did what they did; there wasn't a theory of electromagnetism or some such, so "spirits did it" could be as plausible a story as any.

    That continued up into the renaissance; Isaac Newton studied the occult as well as gravity, and John Dee , remember as an occultist, was also a mathematician and an astronomer.

    Much of our pursuit of knowledge has been all about digging into these old magic tricks, creating a theory to find out why they work, then confirming them by experiment. Sifting out the nonsense from the stuff that's really valuable. Alchemy becomes chemistry, astrology becomes astronomy, shamanic intervention gives way to observational diagnosis and treatment.

    So old-school "magic" is really just the old word for "knowledge", or "wisdom", from which we get our word "wizard". Since that time we have been separating the disciplines out into the study of the supernatural (religion) and the study of practical effects which are the outcome of natural laws ( natural magic => science).

    You might say science is magic that works.

    Respectfully,

    Brian P.
    Last edited by pendell; 2022-05-03 at 08:00 PM.
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    Quote Originally Posted by halfeye View Post
    Yeah, but it ain't magic.
    Well, first we make people fly, then we use a bunch of complicated enchantments to trick rocks into thinking. Then we travel between worlds.

    All spaceflight is basically magic. It just happens to have a fairly consistent ruleset.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Peelee View Post
    With the vast majority of the cost being covered by the United States, crewed mostly by US astronauts (we have had more crew on the ISS than nearly all other nations combined. The only other country that even comes close is Russia), and we're the ones who banned China from participation.

    Yes, it is an international venture, but if someone wants to have a measuring contest its not out of hand to claim that as one of our accomplishments.
    At least currently those astronauts get placed there by Russian spacescrafts from a Russian base(the US despecrated their human space program after the space race.)
    The closest I get to clear and consise:
    Quote Originally Posted by Justanotherhero View Post
    Interesting read! Thanks for the post!

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