Afterlife 3

[Xumtiil]

Tell me you know this is going to flip town without telling me you know they'll flip town.

Xumtiil

It was more a "voting for someone in after-time when day is supposed to already be over is not a good look", but I see where you're coming from. It's not like my vote pushed him over the edge, it was already 3 votes vs 2 for book when I voted (if I counted correctly). I could have not voted instead, which I think is more wolf than putting my foot vote where my mouth is.

[Snowblaze]

Finally found something to disagree with bladescape on. I can vaguely see where you're coming from if I squint hard enough, but I'm not killing the uncounterclaimed Seer.

The only way it makes sense for wolves to have a bane is to protect themselves from kills or scries. Xumtiil is the only claimant to either of those roles, therefore he's town and telling the truth.

[bladescape]

I'm not gonna lie, my vote is half a joke because I don't think it matters and I still am moderately sure FF flips red?

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Ah, Snow is your partner.

I see what's happening here.

It was all a lie, all a horrible elaborate lie!

(This is satire if it doesn't come through properly.)

[Xumtiil]

Elenna

Might as well put my foot where my mouth is.

I figured, hence the throwback.

[bladescape]

I figured, hence the throwback.

Damn, I didn't even pick that up.

And I'm supposed to be good at this meme game.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Votes

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Book Wombat: gac3, flat_footed
flat_footed: JeenLeen, Book Wombat, Xumtiil
Xumtiil: bladescape

End Of Day Three

Another day, another ghostbusting. After searching this ones home, they found evidence he was moonlighting as a mime to entertain others. Everybody knows mimes are evil incarnate.

flat_footed was lynched. They were a member of the Ghost Mafia.

You are members of the Ghost Mafia, the scumteam. You win when the only people left alive are members of the Ghost Mafia. You have access to a number of powers, and can communicate privately via a Discord Chat.

Every night phase, each living wolf may use any one of the following powers:

BANE
Select one person. That person cannot be affected by powers tonight, and cannot be lynched tomorrow. This can be prevented by a void, even if you bane yourself. You cannot bane the same person two nights in a row.

KILL
Select one person. That person will die tonight, barring interference. This power may only be used once per night.

SCRY
Select one person. You learn their alignment, role name, and any powers they have.

VOID
Select one person. That person's powers do not work tonight. This takes precedent over banes.

Night Three Ends In ~24 Hours

[Xumtiil]

Woop Woop, one left?

[AvatarVecna]

Percy Jackson Mafia 2 is recruiting.

[bladescape]

One more means there's no blocks if they wanna kill.

[Xumtiil]

The accountant adjusts his glasses.

"This is excellent. I knew there had been irregularities, but I must say, I didn't think they would stoop so low as to blame the innocent janitor for it. Miniature giant cat cages, indeed. Now, I do not believe there were only two of them - the paperwork seems to indicate a third was in cahoots. I'll have to go through all the purchases and expenses again - it'll take me all night, but fortunately, I'm dead."

[Snowblaze]

Okay, cool. Last wolf is in bladescape/Wombat, then. Xumtiil, would be great if you could scry one of those (personal preference for bladescape). I'm going to enjoy the fact my role is actually useful for once.

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I feel like a wolf!bladescape would make sure his partner had a better fakeclaim than flat's, but then again could have just been flat going ahead on his own without consulting a partner.

[Book Wombat]

Oh hey, I'm still not-alive!

[JeenLeen]

Mathematically, we can't have 4 wolves or they would have won already, right?
It's seem incredibly biased against Town if there were (especially if no town vig), but I haven't done the day-by-day counts to determine it.

I want to give some analysis, but also really don't want the wolves to help the wolves aim. And I honesty don't feel like lying to misdirect their aim. Well, I do feel like doing it for fun, but I like how I haven't really had to lie this game and it'd be neat to keep up with it for once.

[Snowblaze]

Eh. Theoretically four wolves would mean we were in 5:4 LyLo day two and 4:3 LyLo day three. So it's not impossible, though agreed it would be pretty unfair on us. But I'm not that worried since I have a POE of two anyway and I don't see a world where that's wrong.

Anyway, legacy, since I expect to die (insert WIFOM over my protection target here): one of bladescape/BW (or both, if there's two wolves). Hopefully you'll have a scry result to tell you which one. If not... my instinct rn is to vote bladescape but I wouldn't have the confidence to actually do it without an awful lot of analysis to back that up. But just kill one and then if you end up in F3 don't let the other persuade you to not kill them.

[bladescape]

You really think I hand you both my partners on a platter like that?

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I do like mindgames but spoonfeeding town my partners is not among them.

Especially when FF was never going over without me.

Btw you should be protecting Xum every time tonight. Seer result is more important than trying to wifom wolves.

Legit if Xum dies I'm wagoning you idc.

[Snowblaze]

Eh. I don't think it's impossible. Not sure how improbable it is, is the problem. Having not done that large amount of analysis yet and hoping I won't have to, I can't make a final judgement.

No comment until day phase if I live to see it on the protection thing.

[Xumtiil]

If there are legit 2 more wolves, they could still voidkill me, so don't (necessarily) go full ham on Snow if I die.

[bladescape]

If there are legit 2 more wolves then I wouldn't have bussed like I did because 4 wolves is easier to control

[JeenLeen]

Is it worth talking? Do I actually fear being killed this Night? Or do I just like talking to appear smart?
If this helps the wolves aim, do I mind? Would I be aiming them where I want?

Spoiler: talking

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Book Wombat (1): Book Wombat
Snowblaze (2): bladescape, JeenLeen albeit bladescape tried vote Elenna
bladescape (3): Elenna, Xihirli, Batcathat
Elenna (4): Taffimai, Xumtiil, flat_footed, Snowblaze

Elenna lynched. Some suspicions due to last-minute shuffle, but nothing solid in itself. But this did save Snowblaze... but it left plenty of suspicion on Snowblaze and bladescape.
Taffimai NKed. Seems relatively safe kill not giving much info to Town.

Batcathat (4): bladescape, JeenLeen, Snowblaze, Xihirli
bladescape (2): Xumtiil, Batcathat

Pretty sure bladescape and Batcathat not on the same team. Didn't look just like distancing or bussing.
Snowblaze gave an iffy enough reason to vote Batcathat that she could have joined a counterwagon if it made sense to, but Xihirli giving a 4th vote made it pointless for a wolf!Snowblaze to do so.

Batcathat (WOLF) lynched.
Xihirli NKed. Power role. Some info to gleam, but it's confusing to be sure exactly what info should be gleamed.

Book Wombat: gac3, flat_footed
flat_footed: JeenLeen, Book Wombat, Xumtiil
Xumtiil: bladescape

flat_footed (WOLF) lynched.
The only way I think there's two wolves left is if one of them is Book Wombat. Otherwise Book Wombat would've gotten the lynch instead of flat_footed.
I don't see bladescape as a wolf here, even though he jumped off the flat_footed wagon for dubious reasons.

---

Thoughts on likelihood a person is a wolf

If bladescape was a wolf, he would've voted Book Wombat D3 to give flat_footed a chance. Also had a decent chance of getting rid of seer!Xumtiil given how the Town was going, and that seems something odd to waste if I'm a wolf. On the other hand, I can see the lynches as "necessary" distancing to lead the Town. Just an odd way for a wolf to lead the Town (unless there were 4 wolves and the final two are Snowblaze and bladescape). Not saying I believe that idea, but thinking if there's literally *any* way it could make sense for bladescape to be a wolf given vote patterns.

If Book Wombat was a wolf... I mean, maybe bus flat_footed since the duo was against each other, but I think he'd have been more active in the earlier game (at least voting) if wolf. But I'd want at least one of bladescape/Snowblaze dead first before going after Book Wombat.
Xumtiil seems Town now.

No mechanical/analysis reason to think gac3 Town or Wolf, but real life excuses have me believe town.
I want to withhold my thoughts on Snowblaze until Day. Don't want to influence any targeting on her. I mean, it is pretty close to Day already (3ish hours til?), but I won't be awake when Day starts and (while I reckon the wolves will kill a power role) it's possible they'll hit me.
It should be pretty clear what my view is, but I want to leave it in the sets of text above instead of writing it explicitly in hopes that it's late enough whenever the wolf reads this that they won't have time to react to it.

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Thoughts on what it means based on who dies
keeping in mind some WIFOM because they might know we know that it looks like this, or I could be forgetting some part of info that's crucial

If bladescape dies, most heat to Snowblaze as he seems the most suspicious of her. Seems odd for wolves to kill him and leave power roles alive.
If Book Wombat or gac3 die, no real info gained.
If JeenLeen dies... I think heat to bladescape or Snowblaze as I am one of the ones who get iffy about them and might be persuadable to vote them.
If Xumtiil dies, Snowblaze is incredibly suspicious. Seems hard to believe she baned them N2 and thus couldn't N3. I'd really like to hear her excuse.
If Snowblazes dies, she's vindicated. Most heat to bladescape or Book Wombat. I say go with the plan she proposed to kill them in order, barring any info from Xumtiil to guide us.
Caveat: if Xumtiil gives a reading that leads to a mislynch, lynch her next.
Caveat 2: killing Snowblaze or Xumtiil makes the most sense for the wolves to limit town power, but maybe they're afraid of missing a NK and so are doing a safer kill and risking the seer finding them.

I suppose I like the idea of bladescape or Snowblaze being a wolf and playing a masterful game so far.

[AvatarVecna]

End Of Night Three

In the night, the ghostbusters located more evidence against yet another saboteur. Was there no end to the treachery?! It seems this one had been moonlighting as a cop using a halloween mask. Stolen valor is no joke, so it's into the ghost box for eternity! Yeah, that's a fair punishment.

bladescape was killed. They were a Vanillager.

Day Four Ends In ~48 Hours

[gac3]

Why would they choose bladescape?

Book Wombat

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Book Wombat

[Snowblaze]

Well. That was not expected. Sorry for tinfoiling you so much, bladescape. Most likely explanation is that wolf wanted to stop him being cleared by scry, I guess.

Which I guess means my POE is down to one person, Book Wombat.

[Xumtiil]

I can confirm, Bladescape was town. So far my successful scries are 2 for 2 on the people that got night killed.

Book Wombat

... Are my scries actually killing people? There has been at least one night where I was blocked and there still was a night kill, so I guess not... But that nightkill was also someone that targeted me, so I dunno. Let's hope game is over with Book.

[JeenLeen]

An odd choice for a night-kill.
Snowblaze.

Several things just don't quite add up. Both Batcathat and Snowblaze sorta set me up for possible heat D1. Snowblaze's voting patterns could be a wolf. And some banter between her and bladescape looks more incriminating now that he's flipped Town.
On the other hand, I could see Snowblaze being town. Killing Book Wombat kills a townie almost confirmed Town, likely to get scried by the seer and be confirmed Town, and whose death gives little info, and whose death might incriminate town!Snowblaze... so the wolves have some good reason to pick Book Wombat.

I am cool with Book Wombat being lynched today, but I figure I'll at least provide another place to layer votes.

I can confirm, Bladescape was town. So far my successful scries are 2 for 2 on the people that got night killed.

Book Wombat

... Are my scries actually killing people? There has been at least one night where I was blocked and there still was a night kill, so I guess not... But that nightkill was also someone that targeted me, so I dunno. Let's hope game is over with Book.

One game -- I think the cruise ship serial killer one -- I was half-convinced I was actually the serial killer because the person I checked happened to be the person who got killed. I was told (and actually was) Neutral, but it had me rather paranoid.

The bladescape death makes me want to be suspicious of Xumtiil -- killing someone and saying you scried them is a good alibi -- but last Day makes me fairly sure Xumtiil is Town.

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And bold... Snowblaze

[Book Wombat]

Ha. Ahaha. AHAHAHAHAHA. You got me... not. Do you like my Arraka impression?

I am cool with Book Wombat being lynched today, but I figure I'll at least provide another place to layer votes.

I'm not so cool with it so I'll go with Snowblaze too.

[JeenLeen]

Has everyone voted?
If there's no discussion to be had, and AV is cool with it, would everyone be cool with a 24-hour Day today?
Not sure if answers to this would be useful for analysis or not, since (presumably) the person up for lynch wants time for folk to change their mind and the person not-dying is happy with the current votecount.

---

In case anyone wants to discuss analysis, my last post in the Night was sincere. The only falseness was putting a touch more likelihood of bladescape-as-wolf than I actually believed. My main wolf reads are Snowblaze and Book Wombat (some suspicious stuff each), then gac3 (no reason to think either way), then Xumtiil (good reason to think is Town, but it'd be down to just the two of us at this point).
bladescape flipping Town, and his suspiciousness towards Snowblaze late last Day, gives me a little more reason to suspect her. But, like, not a lot of reason. But there's not a lot of reason to suspect Book Wombat either; just more than some others.

I do find it neat that there's legitimate reasons to think everyone currently in play is Town, except the game not being over proves another wol. Both Snowblaze and Book Wombat voted for and were opposed wagons to wolves at some point, gac3 sorta has reasons to lean Town, and Xumtiil seer status seems legit and vote patterns steady Town.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm willing to shorten days if all living players are okay with that. Reply to this post with your vote on the matter, please.

[Snowblaze]

I'm willing to shorten days if all living players are okay with that. Reply to this post with your vote on the matter, please.

I'm guessing "fine with a short day as long as I'm not lead wagon" isn't a valid vote, so I'm fine with a short day full stop.

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- yes, BCH and I both sort-of-suspected you night one, but I don't really see think wolves have a motivation to make you a lynch target when we already have one in bladescape.

- I guess me not voting flat yesterday is kind of suspicious, but I was only around for an hour or two while the flat wagon existed. I was initially just confused by his claim and figured my vote wouldn't matter anyway. ftr if it had mattered I would have voted flat.

- don't really see how the banter point is incriminating.

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Also I don't see where bladescape was suspicious of me late D3, unless this counts:

I'm not gonna lie, my vote is half a joke because I don't think it matters and I still am moderately sure FF flips red?

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Ah, Snow is your partner.

I see what's happening here.

It was all a lie, all a horrible elaborate lie!

(This is satire if it doesn't come through properly.)

Which the last line strongly implies it doesn't. I do remember bladescape saying I could be a wolf... N2, I think? and that he'd vote me if Xumtiil died last night, but those aren't the entire thing.

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Spoiler: me voting BCH

Show

Batcathat. For more information and also because I've got to the point where I think bladescape is town. Mostly because we've been agreeing on more or less every read - I've now got to a decent-confidence townlean on Jeen and have been toying with the idea that Xumtiil has partner equity with bladescape.

Not really a fan of Xihirli calling my BCH case flimsy while at the same time ignoring that that isn't the only aspect of my case and that it's more specific than just "had a townread and so voted the counterwagon". The former part may be partly my fault for not making everything clear. (Also, bold your bladescape vote please!)

Also Jeen, the reason for a town!bladescape to not confirm/deny whether he's the baner is because that information would benefit wolves pretty substantially, knowing whether they have to play around two protections or just one and whether bladescape is a priority nightkill target. Well, that and because he's a cryptic bastard.

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Batcathat 3: bladescape, JeenLeen, Snowblaze
bladescape 3: Xumtiil, Batcathat, Xihirli
No posts: flat_footed, gac3, Book Wombat

Add to my arguments for why bladescape is town and BCH is wolf that everyone I wolfread to some extent is voting bladescape.

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Last game, BCH hard wolfread town!me to the point of shooting me when I'd been the counterwagon to a wolf and played a large part in getting said wolf killed.

This game, BCH townread me. I hadn't done anything that's even remotely in the "kill wolves" level of towncred. In fact I'd say all except one of my posts prior to that townread are very much the sort of thing wolf!me would be posting.

Are those two descriptions likely to belong to a player of the same alignment in both games? I don't think so.

The other major point I've made against BCH is that their Xumtiil ISO is almost pure hedge. And yes, BCH is a player who hedges regardless of alignment, but to that extreme in an ISO... let me pull the relevant quote so you can compare and contrast.

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Cult!BCH from Words of Power. The Elenna ISO there is hedgy in almost exactly the same way as the Xumtiil one this game.

(Also note Elenna was BCH's partner that game, hence why I think Xumtiil is a plausible BCH partner this game.)

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Beyond that I don't really have anything concrete unless I ISO-case them, which I'm not going to do because I need to relax and unwind for a while.

But I normally identify town!BCH by a kind of towny paranoia, and that's... not present this game. At all. And there isn't really a sense that they really *care* about who the wolves are or that most of their reads are uncertain.

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I don't really have much of an argument for town!bladescape beyond:

- a wolf would be more concerned with survival and less with cryptic bastardry

- it's a bad move for a wolf to bus here so unless I'm wrong on BCH he's town

- vague gut feeling

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tl;dr Batcathat is more likely to be a wolf than bladescape and we should kill them.

Snowblaze gave an iffy enough reason to vote Batcathat that she could have joined a counterwagon if it made sense to

That is... not what happened. If you just look at the first few lines of my post I can kind of see where you'd get that impression, but I then proceeded to present several reasons to wolfread BCH which I clearly believed in and wasn't going to change from.

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I was trying to argue that wolf!me wouldn't have killed bladescape but then I realised there's actually a decent chance I do in fact make that kill.

I didn't, though.

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Also I'm the only claimant of a role that (in my highly biased opinion) it's pretty likely town has in this game.

[Xumtiil]

I'm not going to switch my vote right now and am ok with an early day.

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I'm willing to shorten days if all living players are okay with that. Reply to this post with your vote on the matter, please.

Now doing as asked - I'm ok with this.

[JeenLeen]

Book Wombat
For the sake of
1) I have misunderstood bladescape several times this game, so willing to believe I misunderstood what I thought was him wolf-reading Snowblaze
2) Snowblaze's comments make sense
3) if everyone but Book Wombat voted Book Wombat, more likely end day early

Obviously, for Day end early.

If Book Wombat flips Town, let's kill Snowblaze next Day.
Snowblaze, please protect yourself or Xumtiil.
Xumtiil, please scry gac3 or Snowblaze.
Or do whatever seems best to y'all, but that's what I recommend.

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2) Snowblaze's comments make sense

I'm guessing "fine with a short day as long as I'm not lead wagon" isn't a valid vote, so I'm fine with a short day full stop.

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- yes, BCH and I both sort-of-suspected you night one, but I don't really see think wolves have a motivation to make you a lynch target when we already have one in bladescape.

- I guess me not voting flat yesterday is kind of suspicious, but I was only around for an hour or two while the flat wagon existed. I was initially just confused by his claim and figured my vote wouldn't matter anyway. ftr if it had mattered I would have voted flat.

- don't really see how the banter point is incriminating.

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Also I don't see where bladescape was suspicious of me late D3, unless this counts:

Which the last line strongly implies it doesn't. I do remember bladescape saying I could be a wolf... N2, I think? and that he'd vote me if Xumtiil died last night, but those aren't the entire thing.

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Spoiler: me voting BCH

Show

That is... not what happened. If you just look at the first few lines of my post I can kind of see where you'd get that impression, but I then proceeded to present several reasons to wolfread BCH which I clearly believed in and wasn't going to change from.

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I was trying to argue that wolf!me wouldn't have killed bladescape but then I realised there's actually a decent chance I do in fact make that kill.

I didn't, though.

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Also I'm the only claimant of a role that (in my highly biased opinion) it's pretty likely town has in this game.

Statements Snowblaze made that make sense / persuaded me.
But in argument of killing her next Day if Book Wombat flips Town: I could see these statements as a wolf defending themselves. It's a good argument, but if Book Wombat is Town and we don't have a seer find a wolf, I think it looks iffy enough. I'm still willing to think wolf!Snowblaze might've claimed Baner and just gotten lucky no real Baner exist.