Percy Jackson Mafia 2

[Snowblaze]

AFAICT the counterwagon was purely "Cao has done a bit of waffling". That's barely a case at all. And it doesn't help that, when I asked for a reason to vote Cao with 12 minutes to go, it took you 9 minutes to press a single button to bring up your post analyzing Cao. Your wallpost, which itself was quoting a Cao wallpost. That was not exactly helpful for making a decision on lynching Cao over Rogan.

I was phoneposting and multitasking at the time.

Also I never said there was any kind of a good case on Caoimhin beyond "not Rogan".

Open-ended question directed at noone in particular: if you were scum, who are your top three choices for the NK right now?

I don't know. There aren't really any consensus townreads, so... I guess bladescape on general principle/BCH for being active and not really suspected/I get pretty stuck on the third. I'd feel mean killing you and presumably I'm not an option in this hypothetical scenario... maybe Jeen? No-one's really suspecting them and it's denying town information.

Though obviously it depends who my partners are.

Actually, the Xs have given me another general question: if wolves were around at EOD, would you expect them to switch off Rogan for the towncred or stay on the wagon to get a decently powerful role killed?

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For some reason I thought there were more people around at EOD. It was just me/AV/BCH and I couldn't have switched to save Rogan. Valmark posted just before the claim and just after EOD.

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I think the best I can come up with right now is you, with the very scientific reasoning of generally seeming like your townself. Maybe AV, but that's pure gut feeling at the moment, and my gut is kind of an idiot.

Let's play WIFOM: does wolf!BCH townread me the game after I correctly cased them for (among other things) townreading me?

(Agreed on AV. My gut says they're town but I have miscleared wolf!AV based on gut multiple times.)

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BCH, you've said a lot about how you might be tunneling Elenna and doing what you did to me in Wilder West, but you haven't really given much thought to "what if I'm wrong?" Who's wolfy other than Elenna, and why?

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EOD vote count, for reference:
Rogan 5: Batcathat, Zelphas, Elenna, CaoimhinTheCape, Xumtiil
CaoimhinTheCape4: Grand Arbiter, Rogan, Snowblaze, bladescape
AvatarVecna 2: Valmark, Xihirli
Batcathat 1: JeenLeen
Book Wombat 1: flat_footed
Zelphas 1: Book Wombat
Not voting: AvatarVecna

[AvatarVecna]

Actually, the Xs have given me another general question: if wolves were around at EOD, would you expect them to switch off Rogan for the towncred or stay on the wagon to get a decently powerful role killed?

Scum!AV couldn't care less about his roleclaim tbh. "Parent seer" narrows down powers but says literally nothing about alignment, barring the very specific exception of scrying neutrals. Alive or dead doesn't make too much difference, mechanically speaking. One person has a bit more info than they used to by end-game, if Rogan had lived a long time. The main reason scum!AV would refuse to switch is just pure activity. Rogan has contributed to, and provoked more, conversation than any other player so far. That trend was gonna continue. Town lives or dies on participation.

[Snowblaze]

Agreed with the consensus that there are 1-2 wolves on the Rogan wagon. Going to actually look into the off-wagon people since no-one seems to know what to make of them.

We have the quiet people, GA/flat_footed/Book Wombat. All solidly null.

Jeen is Fine(TM); they're consistent with previous town meta but I can't actually townread them for it until we've got more content.

bladescape is... towny but still in his wolfrange, I think.

AV is. I can't read AV. Gut says town, gut is unreliable.

Xihirli... trying to read Xihirli is inherently WIFOMy. If I squint hard enough I can arrive at a vague wolflean, confidence non-existent.

Which leaves Valmark. Who I feel like I need to ISO, I can't remember much that he's done. Eh, will get to it at some point, can't be bothered rn. (I kind of want to wolfread him for an extremely bad reason.)

[Batcathat]

Open-ended question directed at noone in particular: if you were scum, who are your top three choices for the NK right now?

Hard to say. Maybe you, Snow and... either blade or Jeen.

Actually, the Xs have given me another general question: if wolves were around at EOD, would you expect them to switch off Rogan for the towncred or stay on the wagon to get a decently powerful role killed?

Tough to say. If Cao's a wolf, they almost certainly wouldn't, since just switching off from Rogan would give Cao a 50 percent chance of dying and moving your vote to someone other than Cao might still not look very towny, since Rogan's still likely to get lynched. If Cao's not a wolf... I don't know. I could see letting Rogan live for the towncred regardless of his role, but if they're switching to Cao and he flips town, they might look suspicious over that instead, especially since a living Rogan wouldn't really be able to prove his powers or alignment. I think I would've stayed on Rogan as a wolf.

Let's play WIFOM: does wolf!BCH townread me the game after I correctly cased them for (among other things) townreading me?

Maybe? I do like "townreading" townies when I'm a wolf, to pocket them at best or at least create confusion after I flip. But yeah, doing it to you specifically after last game is probably less likely. Or maybe that is why I would do it?

BCH, you've said a lot about how you might be tunneling Elenna and doing what you did to me in Wilder West, but you haven't really given much thought to "what if I'm wrong?" Who's wolfy other than Elenna, and why?

I don't really have any other strong wolfreads. Maybe Xum, but that's still based mainly on possibly feigning ignorance and the lack of content that you pointed out. I was kind of townreadning blade since he agreed with me on Rogan and Elenna, but if they're both town, he might not be. I still don't really agree with Rogan's interpretation of BW's "slip", but I suppose it's possible (and that "oops, I made a towny list" still looks a little shady) so he's another option.

[AvatarVecna]

Hard to say. Maybe you, Snow and... either blade or Jeen.



Tough to say. If Cao's a wolf, they almost certainly wouldn't, since just switching off from Rogan would give Cao a 50 percent chance of dying and moving your vote to someone other than Cao might still not look very towny, since Rogan's still likely to get lynched. If Cao's not a wolf... I don't know. I could see letting Rogan live for the towncred regardless of his role, but if they're switching to Cao and he flips town, they might look suspicious over that instead, especially since a living Rogan wouldn't really be able to prove his powers or alignment. I think I would've stayed on Rogan as a wolf.



Maybe? I do like "townreading" townies when I'm a wolf, to pocket them at best or at least create confusion after I flip. But yeah, doing it to you specifically after last game is probably less likely. Or maybe that is why I would do it?



I don't really have any other strong wolfreads. Maybe Xum, but that's still based mainly on possibly feigning ignorance and the lack of content that you pointed out. I was kind of townreadning blade since he agreed with me on Rogan and Elenna, but if they're both town, he might not be. I still don't really agree with Rogan's interpretation of BW's "slip", but I suppose it's possible (and that "oops, I made a towny list" still looks a little shady) so he's another option.

Honestly that was always the most suspicious thing in the BW post, and yet we got caught up on the scumteam size as if anything other than 4 could possibly happen. If you're a villager, and you go about answering a question as a villager, and then you realize the question was like "if you were a wolf...", you don't just keep writing your post and explain that you answered it incorrectly the first time, you tactically deploy the backspace key and rethink things.

[Batcathat]

Honestly that was always the most suspicious thing in the BW post, and yet we got caught up on the scumteam size as if anything other than 4 could possibly happen. If you're a villager, and you go about answering a question as a villager, and then you realize the question was like "if you were a wolf...", you don't just keep writing your post and explain that you answered it incorrectly the first time, you tactically deploy the backspace key and rethink things.

Can I preemptively vote to lynch you for that headline?

[AvatarVecna]

Can I preemptively vote to lynch you for that headline?

You can do whatever you like. I tell you what though: if I live to see N2, I'll make a youtube title like that, which links to a video hinting at my role.

EDIT: Of course, you could just kill me to learn it...but if you don't kill me, you can learn somebody else for sure, and maybe also learn mine.

[bladescape]

bladescape is... towny but still in his wolfrange, I think.

The is a reason my Bio for Champs was effectively "I'm always in my wolfrange" =P

[gac3]

Day ends in less than 10 minutes but we will see how quickly I'm able to end it. My car decided to stop working on the highway. So while I wait for my dad to come try to help me, I'll try to get everything ready to go. Just be patient if it takes me a little long.

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End of Night. I'll send out the private messages now. No posting until I do the forum post though.

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You wake up the next morning to find two more bodies.

Cape is found covered in burns. This is extra tragic as you find what a plant lover they were. Less tragic when you realize they were a traitorous Roman and a child of Ceres..

Snowblaze was also found but they had a note. "You take one of ours and we take one of yours. Too bad they couldn't see this one coming." They were a child of Apollo with the gift of prophecy.

Day 2 begins. Let me know if you expected a result and didn't get it.

[Xihirli]

ISO on Cape incoming.

[flat_footed]

Wow, ok. Child of Demeter needs to claim immediately, the Romans already know who you are.

[Batcathat]

Well, that's not great but I suppose it could be worse. Good pick by the vig (or serial killer?).

Now that we know both Cao's and Rogan's alignment, hopefully we'll be able to make something out of the D1 votes. I have no idea right away, except that moving his vote to a wolf buddy in that situation seems like the kind of risky but potentially rewarding move a wolfy blade might do (no reason to think he actually did, though).

It's probably nothing, but I keep wondering if those notes have any greater meaning. In this case, it sounds like Snow's death happened because of Cao's somehow, but that's probably unlikely. So probably just flavor.

Hopefully someone has something more solid to go on, but for now I'm going to stay the course and vote Elenna.

[Xihirli]

There's only two posts from Cape... and one of them got him killed.

Hi. I wasn't online yesterday so just catching up now, but at least I only missed about 24 hours. When does Day 1 end? I should be able to catch up in the next few hours?

Null. No way to guess wolf-buddies off of this or anything.

Huh. So in my Latin class in high school, I was taught that they didn't have the letter K and that C was always a hard sound.

Look at him leaping to the defense of Latin. I think this is true though.

We can always look back at the poem for you in Love Letter.



Oh my god, I've been about to post so many times and then I have 5 new posts and new information to consider and then it happens again and again.

An explanation of why he mostly just has one long post, I suppose.

Reading through the thread, there isn't anyone that strikes me as an obvious Wolf but that's standard for Day 1. I'm not a fan of the AV wagon, mostly cause it feels like a given that a) AV has said they aren't super active Day 1, b) often self votes, and c) I feel like AV is popular to vote just because? (I don't actually have numbers on how often AV gets votes). The first two posts of the game immediately create that wagon and it's not unreasonable to assume that AV won't spend too much time defending themselves Day 1 and/or a self vote would show up there to boost the wagon. So possibly scum picking an "easy" target or one that at least won't be questioned too much.

Null without wifom. "I think there are some wolves on the AV wagon" there sure could be. Assuming 2 townie wagons going up against each other the wolves were probably fine killing AV or Rogan up until the claim came.

I don't like that Rogan's vote is still on Taff rather than moving it to someone else, but he gets a pass for now for being so active and pushing discussion but another way to do that is move votes to pressure people.

All the other votes being split is... kinda interesting. No one seems willing to push a second wagon to rival AV Aside from Elenna moving to vote me I guess.

This one... feels weird. Don't know what my gut's saying. Obviously Cape's a wolf, we know that already. I'm just trying to find out what Cape said that got him killed.

I swear, every time I have a thought I refresh the thread and have to catch up on a bunch of new posts. My vague reads:
AvatarVecna - no reason to call them a Wolf yet and I don't love the wagon that popped up on AV so quickly and how it's been stuck as the leading wagon this whole time. I feel like Wolf!AV would have buddies to bail them out? Picking someone to vote for out of that wagon would probably be good. that most recent vote is obviously sketchy, I should vote for AV
Elenna - putting a 3rd vote on AV... the fact that it's the 3rd vote doesn't seem too bad to me, it turns out wagoning is important but as I mentioned above, all of the votes on AV left a sour taste in my mouth. Elenna moving to make a second wagon feels good to me though, rather than make yet another one vote wagon that we have so many of.
Snowblaze - apparently has exams and is catching up. No opinion right now but I don't love the 1, 2 punch of her and Xum starting the game by both voting AV.
Xumtil - someone I want to follow up on. A lot of posts that I'll analyze more later, but I have a gut feeling that I just don't trust Xum atm.

I don't think Cape thought of themselves as under suspicion when writing this. Miiiiinor suspicion on Elenna just from Cape town-reading her. Just a tiny lil bit.

But apparently we have Rogan/BCH as possible wagons now? So my thoughts on them:

Spoiler: Batcathat

Show

I don't like the initial focus on Elenna over the other people on the wagon, from this post:


Does this post mean that you don't think Xumtil and Snow aren't suspicious for their votes? Or just that Xum/Snow is not a wolf/wolf pair?

BCH eventually comes around to suspect Xum as well, though there's no mention of the AV vote.

Again, a weird amount of focus on "suspecting Elenna makes you suspicious" and such. Naturally, just as likely that the Cape knows who's town and thinks maybe he can get towncred if Elenna flips Greek down the line. So I'm not voting Elenna at the moment.

Spoiler: Rogan

Show

My instinct is always that high posters feel more townie so Rogan initially had a vaguely town read for leading the town but...



Joke vote on someone not in the game is fine initially. But it has stuck around for an uncomfortable amount of time now.


Singling out Book to ask the real question to is weird. I get that Book is hard to read but it's still calling one person out when that information could be just as useful as a general question to everyone. Picking Elenna for a random question is a choice as well... Explained below but still. Drilling down on Book's "slip" new feels like there was more behind the choice of who to ask.


Later on we get a defense of Elenna (a possibility of a Rogan/Elenna team is gonna sit in the back of my mind now)



Don't like that argument. Bat was voting one of his reads and mentions others. Rogan technically is voting someone who is not among the top posters (Taff, the person not appearing in this game) but I don't see him pushing for activity/any reads himself. Even the line of questioning on Book Wombat apparently doesn't get any sort of vote.


Later in the thread there's some role analysis but that amounts to speculating what roles are in the game rather than chasing down leads. There's an explanation of reads there, but why not actually vote any of them or push them strongly?

Overall I think I want to vote: Rogan after catching up. His play so far appears townie on the surface but after looking closer I don't like it.

I think this is what got Cape killed. Maybe it's just "hindsight's 20/20" but this one definitely feels to me like instead of looking for suspicious behavior you're just naming the things Rogan's done and adding "and that's suspicious" after. Especially the singling people out thing. That's a risk Roman!Rogan didn't have to take that called a lot of attention to him and sparked discussion in a way that, frankly, a general question WOULDN'T. General questions will get responses from the people who would have been talkative anyway. Targeted questions are more likely to get information and discussion out of players who would otherwise have been quiet.

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Vote Count

AvatarVecna (3): Xumtil, AvatarVecna, Valmark
Taffimai (1): Rogan
Book Wombat (1): Flatfooted
Xumtil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
BatCatHat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan (5): Bladescape, BatCatHat, Zelpas, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape

Null, vote count.

Also, Grand Arbiter dropped a vote on Cao that could easily have been distancing and then did very little else in the day. GA, what do you think of the wagon on Rogan yesterday? Think there are any wolves on it besides just Cao?

[Batcathat]

gac: Did Snow get her result (assuming she used her power and it worked properly) despite her death?

Snow: If the answer to the above is "yes", it might be a good idea to reveal your result in the deadchat if you haven't already, so a potential Child of Hades knows it.

Potential Child of Hades: If you do get the result from Snow, it might be best to not openly reveal it (at least not right away), so you don't paint a target on your own back. Plus the normal issue of early scry results killing discussion.

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I wonder what the odds are the Snow decided to check out the second biggest wagon only for them to die together? That'd be annoying.

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That should be "that Snow", obviously. Though now I kinda want to start calling her the Snow. Sounds pretty cool (pun not intended).

[AvatarVecna]

I need to sleep for a bit but I'm also going to second the recommendation that the child of Demeter claim. Literally no reason not to at this point.

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Also tentative towncred for Xi. Cao analysis has me nodding.

[bladescape]

Oh lmao.

I don't need to do anything, town has it covered.

Also yeah, Demeter child claim.

Also there's two more town that I'm pretty sure that clears.

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Obviously don't claim for the non-Demeter roles but anywayyyyyyy.

[gac3]

gac: Did Snow get her result (assuming she used her power and it worked properly) despite her death?

Snow: If the answer to the above is "yes", it might be a good idea to reveal your result in the deadchat if you haven't already, so a potential Child of Hades knows it.

Potential Child of Hades: If you do get the result from Snow, it might be best to not openly reveal it (at least not right away), so you don't paint a target on your own back. Plus the normal issue of early scry results killing discussion.

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I wonder what the odds are the Snow decided to check out the second biggest wagon only for them to die together? That'd be annoying.

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That should be "that Snow", obviously. Though now I kinda want to start calling her the Snow. Sounds pretty cool (pun not intended).

Yes. Snow got their result.

Also in response to the pink part.... Or it's the most romantic/poetic thing ever.

[Xumtiil]

Also yeah, Demeter child claim.

Are you saying you're the other twin, or are you saying that they should claim. The sentence is confusing to me.

Also, not the twin. Re-reading everything, but am a bit busy today.

[flat_footed]

Are you saying you're the other twin, or are you saying that they should claim. The sentence is confusing to me.

Also, not the twin. Re-reading everything, but am a bit busy today.

I took it as Blade agreeing with the claim recommendation, I don't think he'd play chicken with claiming two games in a row...

Pretty sure.

I'm ok with an Elenna vs. GA wagon for today. A distancing vote on Cao makes sense, hiding in the larger wagons makes sense.

[Elenna]

Hey look AV, a vig did something helpful to town for a change.

Just off the top of my head, towncred to bladescape, I felt like his Caoimhin vote was the point where it started being an actual possibility as a wagon. Still within his wolf range, though.
Gonna have to look at the other Caoimhin votes again.

There's only two posts from Cape... and one of them got him killed.

I like the wolfbuddy analysis. I'm not convinced that "why did the vig decide to kill Cape" is a useful question to look into, though - for one thing, the answer could just be "he was a major wagon and therefore a good source of information and they felt bad killing AV N1".

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Also for the record, I'm not the other child of Demeter, and I agree that they should claim.

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Oh, and obviously Bat not switching off Rogan after his claim looks worse now, although admittedly it's still true that I might have done the same thing in his place.

[Batcathat]

I took it as Blade agreeing with the claim recommendation, I don't think he'd play chicken with claiming two games in a row...

Pretty sure.

Me too, but now I'm curious to see if Xum's alternative interpretation is correct. Of course even blade's grammar is cryptic.

Oh, and obviously Bat not switching off Rogan after his claim looks worse now, although admittedly it's still true that I might have done the same thing in his place.

I was about to question why you singled me out (Yes, I realize the hypocrisy of accusing you of being too focused on me) but after a quick check it seems I was the only one on Rogan's wagon confirmed to be present between his claim and EoD, so that's reasonable.

[Elenna]

Not done rereading D1 yet but I might have to stop and come back to it later.

I'd forgotten that we had a small Caoimhin wagon at the start of the day as well, when GA and I poked him so it was AV 3, Cao 2. Unfortunately as far as I can tell wolves didn't make any sort of concerted effort to combat it. Which makes sense, since the basis of the wagon was pretty much just "Cao is inactive and we need another wagon" and then Cao stopped being inactive. Also it was pretty early D1 so the wolves probably figured it would go away.

CaoimhinThe Cape, as the first inactive player going up from the bottom of the list.

Interesting that GA chose to start from the bottom of the list and not the top. Could be an excuse to vote his wolfbuddy for distance? FWIW I feel like bussing was a lot rarer in this community the last time GA played here.

[Valmark]

Still at work, just wanted to support the idea that the Demeter child should claim (since that only benefits Town, I strongly doubt there's something like a Neutral out to get the Demeter child).

Also should we really try to figure out what got Cao targeted? I can't help but think it would help the Romans lay low if any (if I recall correctly someone was analyzing exactly that upthread).

[Xihirli]

Not done rereading D1 yet but I might have to stop and come back to it later.

I'd forgotten that we had a small Caoimhin wagon at the start of the day as well, when GA and I poked him so it was AV 3, Cao 2. Unfortunately as far as I can tell wolves didn't make any sort of concerted effort to combat it. Which makes sense, since the basis of the wagon was pretty much just "Cao is inactive and we need another wagon" and then Cao stopped being inactive. Also it was pretty early D1 so the wolves probably figured it would go away.


Interesting that GA chose to start from the bottom of the list and not the top. Could be an excuse to vote his wolfbuddy for distance? FWIW I feel like bussing was a lot rarer in this community the last time GA played here.

Bussing is only a thing if you expect them to die that day. Voting for other wolves D1 with no expectation it will take off is typically low risk. Cape got a few votes, but I don’t recall a time when he was ever the lead wagon.

[JeenLeen]

Wow, ok. Child of Demeter needs to claim immediately, the Romans already know who you are.

Good point. I'm the other Child of Demeter. Or well, only actually of Demeter, but I was the one with Cao.

Not sure who I'm most suspicious of, but I won't be online much this Day (busy weekend), so I'll start with Batcathat.
Though maybe some of his posts mean different with Cao flipped wolf. I did tell Cao I was most supsicious of Batcathat, but he didn't comment. He didn't give me any reads on anybody.

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I'd forgotten that we had a small Caoimhin wagon at the start of the day as well, when GA and I poked him so it was AV 3, Cao 2. Unfortunately as far as I can tell wolves didn't make any sort of concerted effort to combat it. Which makes sense, since the basis of the wagon was pretty much just "Cao is inactive and we need another wagon" and then Cao stopped being inactive. Also it was pretty early D1 so the wolves probably figured it would go away.


Interesting that GA chose to start from the bottom of the list and not the top. Could be an excuse to vote his wolfbuddy for distance? FWIW I feel like bussing was a lot rarer in this community the last time GA played here.

Still at work, just wanted to support the idea that the Demeter child should claim (since that only benefits Town, I strongly doubt there's something like a Neutral out to get the Demeter child).

Also should we really try to figure out what got Cao targeted? I can't help but think it would help the Romans lay low if any (if I recall correctly someone was analyzing exactly that upthread).

Bussing is only a thing if you expect them to die that day. Voting for other wolves D1 with no expectation it will take off is typically low risk. Cape got a few votes, but I don’t recall a time when he was ever the lead wagon.

With how the Cao wagon went, I'm willing to give anyone who voted Cao some towncred. Maybe not Grand Arbiter, but it seems a risky move with how volatile D1 seems to start a random wagon on a scumbuddy mid-Day.

I agree it's unlikely the wagon was strong enough that other wolves jumped on it. Rather, they probably were hoping another wagon would gain traction. I know I felt nervous about Cao getting the lynch, but I didn't want to claim D1 or give away a relationship that could be misread; I reckon wolves felt similarly... Big question is did the wolves help save Cao D1, or was it just town D1 randomness.

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Clarification: there was one point there I at least thought AV had 3 votes and Cao was next in line with 2. And since one was a self-vote, that felt like Cao was in the heading.
I don't think it lasted long, though.

[Batcathat]

Just to be absolutely sure... gac: does the presence of a Child of Ceres guarantee that there's a Child of Demeter? (It seems very odd that it wouldn't be the case, but I just want to make sure the wolves haven't found a very safe fake claim).

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I agree it's unlikely the wagon was strong enough that other wolves jumped on it. Rather, they probably were hoping another wagon would gain traction. I know I felt nervous about Cao getting the lynch, but I didn't want to claim D1 or give away a relationship that could be misread; I reckon wolves felt similarly... Big question is did the wolves help save Cao D1, or was it just town D1 randomness.

On one hand, it feels like the wolves would rather jump on the AV wagon (assuming AV is town) in that situation, though I suppose they might've figured that a wagon based on memes and meta reasons wouldn't stay until EoD. I think I need to reread how the votes went around that time.

[flat_footed]

Just to be absolutely sure... gac: does the presence of a Child of Ceres guarantee that there's a Child of Demeter? (It seems very odd that it wouldn't be the case, but I just want to make sure the wolves haven't found a very safe fake claim).

Not a fan of asking this, seems like more of an attempt to seem towny than honestly needing an answer from gac.

[Batcathat]

Also should we really try to figure out what got Cao targeted? I can't help but think it would help the Romans lay low if any (if I recall correctly someone was analyzing exactly that upthread).

Yeah, I kinda agree with this. I'm not sure it'll help the wolves much, but I also don't see any reason it could help town knowing why the vig picked who they did. If it turns out that Cao was killed by a serial killer it might be more interesting, I guess.

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Not a fan of asking this, seems like more of an attempt to seem towny than honestly needing an answer from gac.

Why? It's probably not very likely, but if I can be 100 percent sure Jeen is town instead of 98 percent sure, I'd prefer it.

[JeenLeen]

I read over the D1 posts, mostly looking at vote movements but rereading some discussion, and here's my thoughts in light of flips:

In general, Batcathat and Xumtiil said some stuff that reads a bit suspicious to me. Nothing concrete... but last game I pegged wolf!Batcathat on little, but also though town!Xumtiil ws a wolf due to similar reasonings, so I don't trust these a ton.

Slight wolflean on AV. Mostly, seems odd she crossed out her self-vote. Also just seems how a wolf!AV would cover as a disinterested-likely-gonna-die-anyway townie!AV.
Slight townlean on Xihirli, Grand Arbiter.
Strong townlean on Elenna. Both for how heat was directed to her, and she put a 2nd vote on Cao. That doesn't seem like something a wolf would do without a strong counterwagon. (That her vote changing to Rogan later maybe made it so Rogan died instead of Cao looks iffy, but I still don't see a wolf doing that 2nd Cao vote.)
Strong townlean on bladescape. Good townie actions, and last vote on Cao.

Slight wolflean on flat_footed and townlead on Zelphas, but hard to put a lot of weight to why. Gut feeling in light of how they commented.

If Batcathat flips wolf, weak towncred to Valmark and strong for Elenna.
Some stuff made me feel towncred to AV if Batcathat flips wolf, but... a wolf!AV says bold things, so too much WIFOM to really put info to AV's alignment based on Batcathat's flip.
On the other hand for Valmark:

Knowing this, I'mma shake things up by seeing what happens with CaoimhinTheCape forming a three-way fight. I will be awake and not busy come EoD, so I can always jump in to change things.

Unless asked, I'd like to refrain right now from expressing thoughts on who I want to see lynched. That might change how the three wagons are seen, knowing wether those on them plan to stick around or change (for example, if I wanted to get Rogan lynched then nobody would worry for AV and Cao right now).

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Oh come on, Snow.

That makes Rogan the lead either way so... Uh... AvatarVecna for precisely the same reasons as before.

This makes me suspect Valmark as a wolf a wee bit.
On the other hand, seems way too risky to vote a buddy -- was it by accident? -- then move a vote that quickly. But it's quick enough it might not catch anyone's notice and look innocent. So I guess it looks towny since it's such a bad wolf move? WIFOM spiral commences.

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Not a fan of asking this, seems like more of an attempt to seem towny than honestly needing an answer from gac.

Okay, I'll move flat_footed from wolflean to neutral. Especially if Batcathat flips wolf.

[flat_footed]

Why? It's probably not very likely, but if I can be 100 percent sure Jeen is town instead of 98 percent sure, I'd prefer it.

Gac already stated he's trying to boost the wolves this game. Despite how crazy it would be to have a lone townie without the other twin, putting a named wolf in that situation makes even less sense.

I'll pull an AV and switch to voting myself out if I'm wrong, Batcathat.