Percy Jackson Mafia 2

[Batcathat]

I'll pull an AV and switch to voting myself out if I'm wrong, Batcathat.

Are you saying you'll vote yourself if I flip town or if gac says there's a chance a Demeterless Ceres? Either way, it seems like kind of an overreaction to being wrong.

And yeah, I'm not saying my suggestions is likely, but if I can get a definitive confirmation (and gac seems pretty generous with those) it's preferable to not getting one.

[Book Wombat]

Wait, both seers dead? Welp.

[Xihirli]

That's fine, we'll just do this the old-fashioned way. Everyone gather around this grenade, we can't miss the romans if we all die.

[flat_footed]

Are you saying you'll vote yourself if I flip town or if gac says there's a chance a Demeterless Ceres? Either way, it seems like kind of an overreaction to being wrong.

And yeah, I'm not saying my suggestions is likely, but if I can get a definitive confirmation (and gac seems pretty generous with those) it's preferable to not getting one.

Just if Demeter was childless, I'm not crazy. But Xi is acting rational this game, so I guess someone has to be!

[Batcathat]

Just if Demeter was childless, I'm not crazy. But Xi is acting rational this game, so I guess someone has to be!

Ah, let's hope she has kids then (unless you're both a wolf and a man of your word, I suppose).

Out of curiosity, did you write the second part before or after reading Xi's post advocating solving by mass suicide?

[AvatarVecna]

Just to be absolutely sure... gac: does the presence of a Child of Ceres guarantee that there's a Child of Demeter? (It seems very odd that it wouldn't be the case, but I just want to make sure the wolves haven't found a very safe fake claim).

- - - Updated - - -



On one hand, it feels like the wolves would rather jump on the AV wagon (assuming AV is town) in that situation, though I suppose they might've figured that a wagon based on memes and meta reasons wouldn't stay until EoD. I think I need to reread how the votes went around that time.

The Demeter/Ceres power sure reads to me like it's a guarantee you'll have a partner. I believe Jeen's claim, and I don't appreciate how you only voiced your disagreement with the "Demeter child should claim" until after said child claimed. Stinks of shade.

[Batcathat]

The Demeter/Ceres power sure reads to me like it's a guarantee you'll have a partner. I believe Jeen's claim, and I don't appreciate how you only voiced your disagreement with the "Demeter child should claim" until after said child claimed. Stinks of shade.

What? I never disagreed with that, I thought it was a good idea and I do think Jeen is town, I just wanted to make absolutely sure.

[AvatarVecna]

This is a post about vote counts at different times throughout the day. And I'll be using people's perceptions of the wagons, even though one of the wagons would be a vote light in reality for like half the day.

Anyway, interesting posts:

Spoiler: post 68

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AvatarVecna (4): AvatarVecna, Elenna, Snowblaze, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Grand Arbiter
Elenna (1): Batcathat
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

AvatarVecna (3): AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Elenna, Grand Arbiter
Elenna (1): Batcathat
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

Elenna moves off a large wagon on AV (almost guaranteed to not garner suspicion no matter how I flip) onto CaoimhinTheCape (a member of scumteam). Given how many other wagons there were to choose from, even if scum!Elenna had wanted to get a second viable wagon, they wouldn't do that to a scumbuddy for no reason. Of course, it's also pretty early in the day...

Spoiler: Post 105

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AvatarVecna (3): AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Elenna, Grand Arbiter
Elenna (1): Batcathat
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Rogan (1): bladescape
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

AvatarVecna (3): AvatarVecna, Snowblaze, Xumtiil
Batcathat (2): JeenLeen, Valmark
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Elenna, Grand Arbiter
Elenna (1): Batcathat
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Rogan (1): bladescape
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

The wagons are AV 3, Cao 2, everybody else 1. JeenLeen pushes BCH into being another 2. This is some subtle defense of a mason buddy without just fully saving them. Good move, I think.

Spoiler: Post 135

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AvatarVecna (2): AvatarVecna, Xumtiil
Batcathat (2): JeenLeen, Valmark
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Elenna, Grand Arbiter
Rogan (4): Batcathat, bladescape, Snowblaze, Zelphas
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

AvatarVecna (2): AvatarVecna, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Elenna, Grand Arbiter, Valmark
Rogan (4): Batcathat, bladescape, Snowblaze, Zelphas
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

AvatarVecna (3): AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Elenna, Grand Arbiter
Rogan (4): Batcathat, bladescape, Snowblaze, Zelphas
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

I'm unsure how to feel about this one. On the one hand, Valmark thought the vote was AV 3/Rogan 3/Cao 2, and voted Cao for wagonomics. On the other hand, when it was revealed the actual vote had been AV 2/Cao 2/Rogan 4 prior to Valmark's vote, Valmark switches from Cao to AV...even though it's 4/3/2 regardless. Valmark could've had just as much wagonomics without changing his Cao vote. I'd like other people's thoughts on how to view this one.

Spoiler: Post 146

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AvatarVecna (4): AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Elenna, Grand Arbiter
Rogan (5): Batcathat, bladescape, CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze, Zelphas
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

AvatarVecna (4): AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Grand Arbiter
Rogan (6): Batcathat, bladescape, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, Snowblaze, Zelphas
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

Elenna switches from Cao to Rogan, while calling out that she could've voted AV for wagonomics and is choosing not to. Could be that she's scumbuddies with Cao, and freaked out at how close Cao came to being lead wagon, so she hops onto the biggest wagon to give the best chance of Cao not getting close to lead again. But it could also just be a townie following their suspicions. I'd like people's thoughts on that.

Spoiler: Post 173

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AvatarVecna (4): AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Rogan
Rogan (6): Batcathat, bladescape, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, Snowblaze, Zelphas
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

AvatarVecna (4): AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (3): bladescape, Grand Arbiter, Rogan
Rogan (5): Batcathat, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, Snowblaze, Zelphas
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

bladescape puts Cao in position to get into a three-way tie. Very tentative towncred, weak only because it doesn't inherently tie up the wagons, and I could see scum!blade doing this.

Spoiler: Post 179

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AvatarVecna (4): AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (3): bladescape, Grand Arbiter, Rogan
Rogan (5): Batcathat, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, Snowblaze, Zelphas
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

AvatarVecna (4): AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (4): bladescape, Grand Arbiter, Rogan, Snowblaze
Rogan (4): Batcathat, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, Zelphas
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

If Cao had flipped and not Snowblaze, this is the post that would've locked Snow as town for me. This is Snow creating a triple tie with three controversial slots, and daring any of their scumbuddies to blink.

Spoiler: Post 212

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AvatarVecna (4): AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli, Xumtiil
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (4): bladescape, Grand Arbiter, Rogan, Snowblaze
Rogan (4): Batcathat, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, Zelphas
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

AvatarVecna (3): AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
CaoimhinTheCape (4): bladescape, Grand Arbiter, Rogan, Snowblaze
Rogan (5): Batcathat, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, Xumtiil, Zelphas
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

Xumtiil blinked.

Xumtiil

[Elenna]

Bussing is only a thing if you expect them to die that day. Voting for other wolves D1 with no expectation it will take off is typically low risk. Cape got a few votes, but I don’t recall a time when he was ever the lead wagon.

True, but my point was that even early D1 distancing votes were quite rare on this forum until maybe a year ago, so I don't know if that's something GA would have thought to do. Although I also have no idea if they were reading the games while they were gone, so maybe that doesn't matter.

I agree it's unlikely the wagon was strong enough that other wolves jumped on it. Rather, they probably were hoping another wagon would gain traction. I know I felt nervous about Cao getting the lynch, but I didn't want to claim D1 or give away a relationship that could be misread; I reckon wolves felt similarly... Big question is did the wolves help save Cao D1, or was it just town D1 randomness.

If I were a wolf in that position I think I'd try to avoid voting specifically to save Cao. It shouldn't have been necessary (and in fact it wasn't necessary), since it was early D1, only a 2-vote wagon, and the only reasoning was that Cao was inactive, which was no longer true shortly afterwards.

That being said... I looked at it again and the Rogan wagon did spring up shortly afterwards. It feels like longer, since there's like a page worth of posts in between, but actually Rogan started being a wagon only ~2 hours after my Caoimhin vote. Which definitely doesn't mean it was driven by wolves, but it's something to look at. While looking at the initial Rogan votes I noticed this:

Spoiler: Zelphas D1 vote for Rogan

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Okay, having skimmed through the explosion of posts that just occurred, for the moment I'm going to switch my vote to Rogan, so that we at least have a tie between them and AvatarVecna to keep us from only having one real wagon on Day 1. The whole questioning of "3 wolves/4wolves" from Rogan about Book Wombat is somewhat strange (as several people have already pointed out); it may just be paranoia from town, but its the most off-sounding note in the conversation so far, so it's a place to start.

Here was the vote count at the time:

AvatarVecna 3: Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
CaoimhinTheCape 2: Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan 2: bladescape, Batcathat
flat_footed 1: Zelphas
Zelphas 1: Book Wombat
Batcathat 2: JeenLeen, Valmark
Xumtiil 1: Xihirli
Book Wombat 1: flat_footed
Taffimai (not playing) 1: Rogan
Posted without voting: CaoimhinTheCape

So, AV may have been in the lead, but there were three other wagons only one vote behind, and one of the AV votes was a self-vote. Depending what you call a "real wagon" I'd have said there were either four real wagons or zero. Certainly I wouldn't have said AV was the only real wagon. An excuse to move his vote to put another wagon ahead of Cao, maybe?

Zelphas, any comments on that?

- - - Updated - - -

Just to be absolutely sure... gac: does the presence of a Child of Ceres guarantee that there's a Child of Demeter? (It seems very odd that it wouldn't be the case, but I just want to make sure the wolves haven't found a very safe fake claim).

FWIW although I think there are other reasons to scumread Bat at this point (not switching off Rogan, and the quote below), I don't think this question in itself is particularly suspicious. I had the same thought process when I saw Jeen's claim: "Oh, so Jeen is locktown - wait, is that actually true? Are there any possible side cases?" My initial reaction to anything that's "definitely true" in a werewolf game is generally to look for ways it might not be true, especially in an all PR game, so I understand Bat wanting to check this.

That being said,

But apparently we have Rogan/BCH as possible wagons now? So my thoughts on them:

Spoiler: Batcathat

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I don't like the initial focus on Elenna over the other people on the wagon, from this post:


Does this post mean that you don't think Xumtil and Snow aren't suspicious for their votes? Or just that Xum/Snow is not a wolf/wolf pair?

BCH eventually comes around to suspect Xum as well, though there's no mention of the AV vote.

Spoiler: Rogan

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My instinct is always that high posters feel more townie so Rogan initially had a vaguely town read for leading the town but...



Joke vote on someone not in the game is fine initially. But it has stuck around for an uncomfortable amount of time now.


Singling out Book to ask the real question to is weird. I get that Book is hard to read but it's still calling one person out when that information could be just as useful as a general question to everyone. Picking Elenna for a random question is a choice as well... Explained below but still. Drilling down on Book's "slip" new feels like there was more behind the choice of who to ask.


Later on we get a defense of Elenna (a possibility of a Rogan/Elenna team is gonna sit in the back of my mind now)



Don't like that argument. Bat was voting one of his reads and mentions others. Rogan technically is voting someone who is not among the top posters (Taff, the person not appearing in this game) but I don't see him pushing for activity/any reads himself. Even the line of questioning on Book Wombat apparently doesn't get any sort of vote.


Later in the thread there's some role analysis but that amounts to speculating what roles are in the game rather than chasing down leads. There's an explanation of reads there, but why not actually vote any of them or push them strongly?

Overall I think I want to vote: Rogan after catching up. His play so far appears townie on the surface but after looking closer I don't like it.

Bat was by no means a possible wagon at this point. There were 5 votes on Rogan, 3 on AV, 2 on Cao, and 1 on several other people including Bat. The most votes he'd had at any point was 2. Cao should have know that - he included a vote count in the same post as this quote came from. Nobody had even expressed much suspicion of Bat that I noticed, in fact Snow and bladescape had both recently said he was towny. This could be an excuse to distance from Bat by putting some shade on him.

[Xumtiil]

This is a post about vote counts at different times throughout the day. And I'll be using people's perceptions of the wagons, even though one of the wagons would be a vote light in reality for like half the day.

Timestamp.

In fact, making it a three way tie is giving AV the choice of two people to lynch, tbh.

Post 173 was when you already had already unvoted yourself. I thought, and other people thought, that we had a three way tie, and it didn't look like you were choosing either one to vote for, so I decided to break it.
You chose to keep your unvoting secret, not let anyone know the correct vote counts (to the point that it was a point of confusion at EOD), which is squarely not in the best interest of town.

I realize that in retrospect my choice of Rogan over Caoimhin looks bad, but it was an honest mistake. Your behaviour was purposefully deceitful.

- - - Updated - - -

The only non-scum reason I could think of for keeping vote counts hidden would be if you were a survivor.

Or a serial killer who handily killed a Roman for us, I guess.

[Elenna]

Thank you, AV, for doing wagonomics so I don't have to. Downside is, now I have yet another wall of text.

Spoiler: Post 135

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I'm unsure how to feel about this one. On the one hand, Valmark thought the vote was AV 3/Rogan 3/Cao 2, and voted Cao for wagonomics. On the other hand, when it was revealed the actual vote had been AV 2/Cao 2/Rogan 4 prior to Valmark's vote, Valmark switches from Cao to AV...even though it's 4/3/2 regardless. Valmark could've had just as much wagonomics without changing his Cao vote. I'd like other people's thoughts on how to view this one.

From what Valmark said, apparently he saw that Snow voted Rogan but didn't realize that Snow was originally voting you, so he thought the actual vote was AV 3/Cao 2/Rogan 4, in which case it made sense to tie up the top two wagons. Could be a lie to save Cao, of course, but it feels like a plausible explanation to me.

Spoiler: Post 146

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Elenna switches from Cao to Rogan, while calling out that she could've voted AV for wagonomics and is choosing not to. Could be that she's scumbuddies with Cao, and freaked out at how close Cao came to being lead wagon, so she hops onto the biggest wagon to give the best chance of Cao not getting close to lead again. But it could also just be a townie following their suspicions. I'd like people's thoughts on that.

Not sure if my thoughts are helpful at all, but for what it's worth, when I hopped on Cao it became AV 3/Cao 2. After that, there was one more vote on you, and a few more votes on Rogan - meaning Cao was *farther* from being lead wagon than when I voted - and then I switched to Rogan. If wolf!me had been willing to make that initial bussing vote in the first place, there was no reason for me to have freaked out later.

Spoiler: Post 212

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Xumtiil blinked.

Also an excellent point, I want an answer from Zelphas first but I wouldn't be opposed to a Xumtiil lynch today.

That's fine, we'll just do this the old-fashioned way. Everyone gather around this grenade, we can't miss the romans if we all die.

And gac gets to win too in that case!

[Zelphas]

That being said... I looked at it again and the Rogan wagon did spring up shortly afterwards. It feels like longer, since there's like a page worth of posts in between, but actually Rogan started being a wagon only ~2 hours after my Caoimhin vote. Which definitely doesn't mean it was driven by wolves, but it's something to look at. While looking at the initial Rogan votes I noticed this:

Spoiler: Zelphas D1 vote for Rogan

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Here was the vote count at the time:

So, AV may have been in the lead, but there were three other wagons only one vote behind, and one of the AV votes was a self-vote. Depending what you call a "real wagon" I'd have said there were either four real wagons or zero. Certainly I wouldn't have said AV was the only real wagon. An excuse to move his vote to put another wagon ahead of Cao, maybe?

Zelphas, any comments on that?

Okay, let's see if I can put my thoughts in order. From what I understand, a "wagon" could only be called such when there are at least three people voting for that person; otherwise, it's too small and scattered to truly be a wagon. I'm wondering now if that was a personal classification I had made up in my head rather than an unspoken rule; regardless, that's what I meant when I said that AvatarVecna had the only "real" wagon at that time.

I'm going to go through the thread again within the next 24 hours and solidify where I feel with people at the moment. Right now, I'm going to place a second vote on Xumtiil; AvatarVecna's wagonomics post makes sense to me, I think, though Avatar Vecna always sounds confident and self-assured enough in these games to be credible from what I've seen.

[AvatarVecna]

Post 173 was when you already had already unvoted yourself. I thought, and other people thought, that we had a three way tie, and it didn't look like you were choosing either one to vote for, so I decided to break it.

Why break it? The case on Cao was "waffle-wolf", the case on me was "AV is always sus", and the case on Rogan was "weird reactions". Those are all perfectly viable D1 wagons. Unless town!Xum was absolutely convinced it was Rogan and that AV/Cao were both definitely innocent, the townie move here is to leave the tie alone. Let somebody else break it, and then later if one of the D1 wagons flips scum, now we've got some really interesting analysis we can do. Tied wagons are wolf traps that can be used to catch wolves days later.

Understand - if Cao and I had died in the night, and both had flipped town, this conversation wouldn't be happening - your vote change wouldn't be scum evidence, because there weren't any scum wagons D1. But Cao has flipped wolf, and now everything is gonna get over-analyzed. And like it or not, your vote is the one that doomed Rogan and saved Cao.

You chose to keep your unvoting secret, not let anyone know the correct vote counts (to the point that it was a point of confusion at EOD), which is squarely not in the best interest of town.

I realize that in retrospect my choice of Rogan over Caoimhin looks bad, but it was an honest mistake. Your behaviour was purposefully deceitful.

The only non-scum reason I could think of for keeping vote counts hidden would be if you were a survivor.

Or a serial killer who handily killed a Roman for us, I guess.

You realize that townies are allowed to be deceitful, yeah?

The last time I pulled this exact move, it was also when I was voting for myself, in a situation that made it look like I was blatantly trying to fly under the radar. Basically all of town voted me, and the situation was weird enough that every single one of the wolves waffled on voting for me. That waffle got them suspected. By the end of the day, I'd silently crossed out my own vote, and where the wolves thought we were tied (with me reaching the tie value first), instead the wolf was leading, and so the wolf was lynched. This game the rest of town a day's worth of controversial interactions to manage. My actions tripped wolves up so hard that they all accidentally left footprints for us to find later, and they were convinced I was the day-baner, which gave the real day-baner cover forever. Earlier, I mentioned a strategy where a veteran, dangerous player would make wild, unexplained accusations, purely to get reactions out of people, to see if they act like caught wolves. That's just as deceptive a strategy, and I'll tell you what, it works more than it has any right to.

Townies lying in order to catch wolves is, in fact, generally good town strategy. It's tricky to pull off properly, but it shakes up the game.

I left my vote where it was (on nobody) for the same reason that Snow moved her vote: she created the appearance of a three-way tie. She didn't know it was only the appearance of one, but I helped sell the illusion by not "moving" my vote. I left my vote absent, because everybody thought there was a three-way tie on AV/Cao/Rogan. The best thing I could do with my vote would be to return it to being a three-way tie, except that would put my life in danger. And we already have the appearance of a three-way tie. And I was thinking about this exact "Xum/Cao scumbuddies?" the second you moved your vote.

This is why I asked you if you'd noticed my uncrossed vote - if you did, the case against you is even stronger. You claim you didn't.

This is why I made noises about switching my vote to Cao - I wanted to see if we could get reactions from somebody else.

This is why my last post before EoD is fingering you without fully explaining why. I already had these wagonomics in mind, I just hadn't spelled them out yet.

This is why bladescape was nodding along with my Xum suspicions. And bladescape nodding along is why I didn't make this post last night - I'm tentatively townreading bladescape, and since they clearly saw the same thing I did, that would mean there would be somebody around D2 to make the case against you, so I didn't need to do that in the night.

This is why I told people I would hint at my role N2. I know you're not my scumbuddy, but to anybody else's perspective, your move could be saving either me or Cao from getting lynched. My offering a role hint at a later date is me saying directly to the vig and/or SK "I know we both look bad, but check Cao first".

- - - Updated - - -

Thank you, AV, for doing wagonomics so I don't have to. Downside is, now I have yet another wall of text.

From what Valmark said, apparently he saw that Snow voted Rogan but didn't realize that Snow was originally voting you, so he thought the actual vote was AV 3/Cao 2/Rogan 4, in which case it made sense to tie up the top two wagons. Could be a lie to save Cao, of course, but it feels like a plausible explanation to me.

That's what he said after his Cao vote, but he definitely knew Snow had been voting me. Here's a quote, so that we're on the same page:

...hihirli? The laugh before the kill?

You're not helping me catch up to the thread for sure.






So, with the new votes added in it should be:
AvatarVecna 3: Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
CaoimhinTheCape 2: Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan 3: bladescape, BatCatHat, Zelphas
Zelphas 1: Book Wombat
Batcathat 2: JeenLeen, Valmark
Xumtiil 1: Xihirli
Book Wombat 1: flat_footed
Taffimai (not playing) 1: Rogan
Posted without voting: CaoimhinTheCape (have fun trying to catch up!)

Knowing this, I'mma shake things up by seeing what happens with CaoimhinTheCape forming a three-way fight. I will be awake and not busy come EoD, so I can always jump in to change things.

Unless asked, I'd like to refrain right now from expressing thoughts on who I want to see lynched. That might change how the three wagons are seen, knowing wether those on them plan to stick around or change (for example, if I wanted to get Rogan lynched then nobody would worry for AV and Cao right now).

Valmark does a full vote-count, and comes to the conclusion that the current gamestate is "AV 3/Cao 2/BCH 2/Rogan 3", and so he votes Cao to make a three-way tie.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh come on, Snow.

That makes Rogan the lead either way so... Uh... AvatarVecna for precisely the same reasons as before.

And here is Valmark realizing that Snow switched from AV to Rogan (Valmark just did a full vote-count, so he knows Snow was voting me). Valmark knows the score (including his vote) is currently "AV 2/Cao 3/BCH 2/Rogan 4", and that is the situation in which he switched his vote from Cao to AV, even though that means it's 2-2-3-4 either way. So why change his vote? My scum!theory here is that Valmark wanted to make a tie for wagonomics (so he looks more towny), but when he realized that a vote for a scumbuddy didn't actually create a three-way tie (and thus, didn't create any towncred for Valmark), he voted one of the other two-vote wagons instead, that way his scumbuddy was tied for third instead of solidly in second place.

This is a weak theory, but the move from Cao to AV is weird if he's town and was just doing wagonomics. It's possible town!Valmark felt strongly that I was scummier than Cao, and he only voted Cao in the first place for wagonomics, and then changed the vote to me when he realized his vote couldn't make a tie? But if that's what he was thinking in his head, I'm not seeing that in the thread. I'm not seeing anything pointing to "Valmark suspects AV" other than the vote.

EDIT: The flaw in my scum!Cao theory is honestly the BCH wagon. If scum!Valmark wanted towncred for making a three-way tie, he could've put that vote on BCH instead of Cao.

[Elenna]

That's what he said after his Cao vote, but he definitely knew Snow had been voting me.

I was writing a response to this, but actually I'd rather let Valmark answer it and see if his explanation of his thought process matches with what I think his thought process was. It does look more scummy now that you mention there was an actual votecount there, but IMO not as much as you think it does.

[AvatarVecna]

I was writing a response to this, but actually I'd rather let Valmark answer it and see if his explanation of his thought process matches with what I think his thought process was. It does look more scummy now that you mention there was an actual votecount there, but IMO not as much as you think it does.

Im willing to drop it until we get a Valmark reply.

[Elenna]

Okay, let's see if I can put my thoughts in order. From what I understand, a "wagon" could only be called such when there are at least three people voting for that person; otherwise, it's too small and scattered to truly be a wagon. I'm wondering now if that was a personal classification I had made up in my head rather than an unspoken rule; regardless, that's what I meant when I said that AvatarVecna had the only "real" wagon at that time.

Yeah, I think that's a classification you made up in your head (or possibly just a lie of course, if you're a wolf). Plus, one of the votes on AV at that point was a self-vote so I don't know if I'd even consider it a vote for the purposes of "is this a wagon".

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AV, while you're here, any thoughts on my Zelphas theory?

[AvatarVecna]

Yeah, I think that's a classification you made up in your head (or possibly just a lie of course, if you're a wolf). Plus, one of the votes on AV at that point was a self-vote so I don't know if I'd even consider it a vote for the purposes of "is this a wagon".

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AV, while you're here, any thoughts on my Zelphas theory?

I think it's plausible but I'm not necessarily convinced. I could see town!Z trying to get a tie going, and picking one of the three two-vote wagons to push, but I could also see scum!Z specifically doing that with a non-Cao wagon so that Cao is tied for third instead of second. Ultimately, it makes me want to ask Zelphas questions to gauge their answers more than it makes me want to immediately vote them (especially when I prefer my Xumtiil vote).

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Post 173 was when you already had already unvoted yourself. I thought, and other people thought, that we had a three way tie, and it didn't look like you were choosing either one to vote for, so I decided to break it.
You chose to keep your unvoting secret, not let anyone know the correct vote counts (to the point that it was a point of confusion at EOD), which is squarely not in the best interest of town.

I realize that in retrospect my choice of Rogan over Caoimhin looks bad, but it was an honest mistake. Your behaviour was purposefully deceitful.

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The only non-scum reason I could think of for keeping vote counts hidden would be if you were a survivor.

Or a serial killer who handily killed a Roman for us, I guess.

I've got more to say about this, but I'll start off with a question: if I'm lying scum, and I didn't move my vote specifically so that Rogan would get lynched instead of Cao (despite my empty words about voting Cao over Rogan), then who are my scumbuddies?

EDIT: In fact, I invite anybody to speculate on that question, because it's an important one to considering when deciding to vote Xumtiil or not. "Is AV scum trying to get Xumtiil mislynched, and if so, who are their scumbuddies?"

EDIT: Be sure to keep in mind that if I'm scum, I would've told my scumbuddies about crossing out my vote.

[Zelphas]

Yeah, I think that's a classification you made up in your head (or possibly just a lie of course, if you're a wolf). Plus, one of the votes on AV at that point was a self-vote so I don't know if I'd even consider it a vote for the purposes of "is this a wagon".

That's fair. I think in one of the games I was in, AvatarVecna legitimately voted themselves out, so I tend to assume that their self-vote is legitimate until it is rescinded. I figured tying two wagons would prompt more action than having one lead and two second-placers, but that might just be untrue.

[AvatarVecna]

That's fair. I think in one of the games I was in, AvatarVecna legitimately voted themselves out, so I tend to assume that their self-vote is legitimate until it is rescinded. I figured tying two wagons would prompt more action than having one lead and two second-placers, but that might just be untrue.

On the assumption that I am scum, who are my scumbuddies besides Cao?

On the assumption Xumtiil is scum, who are their scumbuddies besides Cao?

[Elenna]

I think it's plausible but I'm not necessarily convinced. I could see town!Z trying to get a tie going, and picking one of the three two-vote wagons to push, but I could also see scum!Z specifically doing that with a non-Cao wagon so that Cao is tied for third instead of second. Ultimately, it makes me want to ask Zelphas questions to gauge their answers more than it makes me want to immediately vote them (especially when I prefer my Xumtiil vote).

Yeah after seeing Zelphas' response I think that's where I'm landing too. Might come back to my suspicions on him later depending how the game goes, but for now I think I want to put a second vote on Batcathat instead. Partly for not switching off Rogan, and partly for the thing with Cao I mentioned above that could have been distancing.

For the record, I'm still pretty suspicious of Xumtiil, but I figure two 2-vote wagons is probably better for town than one 3-vote wagon and a bunch of single votes.

Current vote count:
Elenna (1): Batcathat
Grand Arbiter (1): Xihirli
Batcathat (2): flat_footed, Elenna
Xumtiil (2): AvatarVecna, Zelphas

EDIT for correction: as Jeen pointed out below, they’re also on Bat, so at the time of this post there were three votes on Bat.

[AvatarVecna]

Yeah after seeing Zelphas' response I think that's where I'm landing too. Might come back to my suspicions on him later depending how the game goes, but for now I think I want to put a second vote on Batcathat instead. Partly for not switching off Rogan, and partly for the thing with Cao I mentioned above that could have been distancing.

For the record, I'm still pretty suspicious of Xumtiil, but I figure two 2-vote wagons is probably better for town than one 3-vote wagon and a bunch of single votes.

Current vote count:
Elenna (1): Batcathat
Grand Arbiter (1): Xihirli
Batcathat (2): flat_footed, Elenna
Xumtiil (2): AvatarVecna, Zelphas

Certainly after yesterday, I'm not gonna get on anyone's case for tying things up.

[bladescape]

Xumtiil

I am sitting here amused by the number of people who give towncred to other players and then are like "Towncred for Blade, but I could see wolf!blade do this."

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They're not wrong, I'm just finding it hilarious.

[Zelphas]

On the assumption that I am scum, who are my scumbuddies besides Cao?

On the assumption Xumtiil is scum, who are their scumbuddies besides Cao?

If AvatarVecna is scum, I’d say that one of their scumbuddies could be Elenna; they’re playing off of each other well, and it keeps the focus out towards Xumtiil and Batcathat. I could also see bladescape being on their team. Both Elenna and bladescape feel too “obvious” of a choice, though, so I’m not sure on them.

If Xumtiil is scum, I think one of their scumbuddies would be Batcathat; Batcathat is doing a lot of talking and holding an unwavering focus on Elenna, which frees Xumtiil somewhat to make their own statements. I could also see Valmark being another scumbuddy here, though there isn’t really much to tie them together that I can find.

Of course, either one of these groups could have overlapping scumbuddies among the quieter people in the thread (flat_footed, Book Wombat, Grand Arbiter). Staying out of the spotlight doesn’t work forever, but it’s not a terrible strategy if another scumbuddy is able to take and hold the spotlight safely.

[bladescape]

This is why I asked you if you'd noticed my uncrossed vote - if you did, the case against you is even stronger. You claim you didn't.

This is why I made noises about switching my vote to Cao - I wanted to see if we could get reactions from somebody else.

This is why my last post before EoD is fingering you without fully explaining why. I already had these wagonomics in mind, I just hadn't spelled them out yet.

This is why bladescape was nodding along with my Xum suspicions. And bladescape nodding along is why I didn't make this post last night - I'm tentatively townreading bladescape, and since they clearly saw the same thing I did, that would mean there would be somebody around D2 to make the case against you, so I didn't need to do that in the night.

I'm going to match AV with the "I see AV seeing what I see and that makes me hesitantly inclined to think they're town".

Also btw yes:
Townies lying can absolutely help town. Just be careful with it because a bad lie can also hurt town.

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If AvatarVecna is scum, I’d say that one of their scumbuddies could be Elenna; they’re playing off of each other well, and it keeps the focus out towards Xumtiil and Batcathat. I could also see bladescape being on their team. Both Elenna and bladescape feel too “obvious” of a choice, though, so I’m not sure on them.

If Xumtiil is scum, I think one of their scumbuddies would be Batcathat; Batcathat is doing a lot of talking and holding an unwavering focus on Elenna, which frees Xumtiil somewhat to make their own statements. I could also see Valmark being another scumbuddy here, though there isn’t really much to tie them together that I can find.

Of course, either one of these groups could have overlapping scumbuddies among the quieter people in the thread (flat_footed, Book Wombat, Grand Arbiter). Staying out of the spotlight doesn’t work forever, but it’s not a terrible strategy if another scumbuddy is able to take and hold the spotlight safely.

I'm also going to tentatively townlean this post too.

Because that is exactly who I'm looking at if Xum flips red.

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Also ngl I was tempted to pretend I was claiming Demeter Twin when I saw someone ask about it, just for the kicks.

But no, I'm not.

[AvatarVecna]

If Xumtiil is scum, I think one of their scumbuddies would be Batcathat; Batcathat is doing a lot of talking and holding an unwavering focus on Elenna, which frees Xumtiil somewhat to make their own statements. I could also see Valmark being another scumbuddy here, though there isn’t really much to tie them together that I can find.

I'm also going to tentatively townlean this post too.

Because that is exactly who I'm looking at if Xum flips red.

This has been my thoughts as well (although it's weak scumleans on BCH/Valmark, they're still there, and previously-established so you know I'm not just latching on). Anyway, with three of us thinking about those two, I'm gonna go ahead and look over D1 again on the assumption scumteam was BCH/Cao/V/Xum, and see if anything looks like too weird as a wolf move.

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Well, that's not great but I suppose it could be worse. Good pick by the vig (or serial killer?).

Now that we know both Cao's and Rogan's alignment, hopefully we'll be able to make something out of the D1 votes. I have no idea right away, except that moving his vote to a wolf buddy in that situation seems like the kind of risky but potentially rewarding move a wolfy blade might do (no reason to think he actually did, though).

It's probably nothing, but I keep wondering if those notes have any greater meaning. In this case, it sounds like Snow's death happened because of Cao's somehow, but that's probably unlikely. So probably just flavor.

Hopefully someone has something more solid to go on, but for now I'm going to stay the course and vote Elenna.

gac: Did Snow get her result (assuming she used her power and it worked properly) despite her death?

Snow: If the answer to the above is "yes", it might be a good idea to reveal your result in the deadchat if you haven't already, so a potential Child of Hades knows it.

Potential Child of Hades: If you do get the result from Snow, it might be best to not openly reveal it (at least not right away), so you don't paint a target on your own back. Plus the normal issue of early scry results killing discussion.

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I wonder what the odds are the Snow decided to check out the second biggest wagon only for them to die together? That'd be annoying.

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That should be "that Snow", obviously. Though now I kinda want to start calling her the Snow. Sounds pretty cool (pun not intended).

These posts together are NAGL. First one literally is BCH casting doubt on the alignment of the person who just sniped Cao. Yes, it's theoretically possible they are a serial killer of some neutral deity we're unaware of currently. That's a reasonable concern to have. Except then we get BCH, sight unseen, assuming innocence on the part of a Child Of Hades who we don't even know if they exist or not. either of these is a reasonable way to approach these, but they're back to back from the same person, and they don't match.

[JeenLeen]

For the record, I'm still pretty suspicious of Xumtiil, but I figure two 2-vote wagons is probably better for town than one 3-vote wagon and a bunch of single votes.

Current vote count:
Elenna (1): Batcathat
Grand Arbiter (1): Xihirli
Batcathat (2): flat_footed, Elenna
Xumtiil (2): AvatarVecna, Zelphas

I also voted Batcathat, so 3 votes as of Elenna's post.
I'm guessing it's either an honest mistake or possibly purposefully townie lying to trick wolves into thinking the vote total is different than it is. But I think we learn more if the wolves react to the actual votes instead of having questions about if we know if they know who's in the lead. (In other words, not meaning forgetting my vote as any mark against Elenna.)

[AvatarVecna]

I also voted Batcathat, so 3 votes as of Elenna's post.
I'm guessing it's either an honest mistake or possibly purposefully townie lying to trick wolves into thinking the vote total is different than it is. But I think we learn more if the wolves react to the actual votes instead of having questions about if we know if they know who's in the lead. (In other words, not meaning forgetting my vote as any mark against Elenna.)

Yeah that only works when I do it.

[Elenna]

I also voted Batcathat, so 3 votes as of Elenna's post.
I'm guessing it's either an honest mistake or possibly purposefully townie lying to trick wolves into thinking the vote total is different than it is. But I think we learn more if the wolves react to the actual votes instead of having questions about if we know if they know who's in the lead. (In other words, not meaning forgetting my vote as any mark against Elenna.)

Oh, yeah, I just missed that.
this is why I don’t normally do vote counts

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In that case I might as well vote for the one I suspect more. Which is Xumtiil, probably, but Xum and Bat are both pretty equally wolfy to me.

[Valmark]

It's waaaay too late for me, but tomorrow I don't work and there were two addressing me (AV and Elenna, right?) specifically so I'd rather take the time to reply then (than?) make people wait on me for their thoughts.

So, with the new votes added in it should be:
AvatarVecna 3: Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
CaoimhinTheCape 2: Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan 3: bladescape, BatCatHat, Zelphas
Zelphas 1: Book Wombat
Batcathat 2: JeenLeen, Valmark
Xumtiil 1: Xihirli
Book Wombat 1: flat_footed
Taffimai (not playing) 1: Rogan
Posted without voting: CaoimhinTheCape (have fun trying to catch up!)

Knowing this, I'mma shake things up by seeing what happens with CaoimhinTheCape forming a three-way fight. I will be awake and not busy come EoD, so I can always jump in to change things.

Unless asked, I'd like to refrain right now from expressing thoughts on who I want to see lynched. That might change how the three wagons are seen, knowing wether those on them plan to stick around or change (for example, if I wanted to get Rogan lynched then nobody would worry for AV and Cao right now).

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Oh come on, Snow.

That makes Rogan the lead either way so... Uh... AvatarVecna for precisely the same reasons as before.

When I posted this I wanted to make a three way tie, but then noticed Snow moved on Rogan. What I didn't see, because I forgot to check, is that Snow moved off of AV. Because of that, I actually thought it was 3-3-4 and moved on AV to make a 4-4 tie. Homewever...

Wait, Snow was on AV, so whoever I'm voting goes to three and the other to two.

...

Yeah it can stay like that. No point to keep changing it if I'm not gonna commit before EoD.

Like I realized shortly later, that was completely pointless. At that point though there was nothing to gain in changing again as far as I could see.

[AvatarVecna]

I know Rogan likes to bluff as a wolf. The only game I've played with them was as w/w buddies. I'm biased in thinking they're wolfy, but my gut says this entire book wombat / Rogan is likely overblown. That said, there's no point in me jumping to Rogan to test my wolfy suspicions - he's already the lead wagon, and I don't have (m)any other reads yet. As much as I sympathize with AV, I'm not going to switch away from them since I really don't have any better currently. Hoping to see some activity from the inactive/low posters.

The vote is currently AV 4/Cao 1/Rogan 6. Xumtiil expresses more suspicion of Rogan than AV, but refuses to switch since it wouldn't really change the results all that much. The suspicion on Rogan is more or less the same as other people's suspicions: Rogan overreacted to both my "fool claim" and BW's "scumslip". To paraphrase:

"I'm biased in thinking Rogan is wolfy, so I know I should give them more benefit of the doubt, but I think Rogan's reaction to BW is overblown".

At least, that's how I'm parsing that sentence, because the alternative is "I think the reasons to suspect rogan are overblown, but there's no point in me testing my scum!Rogan theory since he's already getting lynched". The post only makes sense if Xum suspects Rogan.

This is understandable and NAI, in my opinion. But...

While you have a (marginal) point, I think it's more important to have a counter wagon, than it to be a really good one. Barring scum slips, there are no good D1 wagons, and having a wagon, a counter, and some more votes going around applying pressure is the best you can hope for. Considering how your wagon came to be, I'm expecting you to flip town, and honestly I'm also not thinking AV is genuinely a Roman, but I feel like AV a bit in a sense that the game only truly starts being interesting/solvable D2. All this conversation is nice, but without any irrefutable statements from the GodGac, everything is both innocent and suspicious.

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Quoting the section I'm replying to

"considering how your wagon came to be, I'm expecting you to flip town" (this directed at Rogan)

"I'm also not thinking AV is genuinely a Roman"

This is going to be the sticking point for me, I think. Regardless of absolutely anything else that happened: right Cao gained three votes and Rogan lost two, Xumtiil publicly admitted not thinking Rogan would flip town. And then after the tie, and after a couple hours of tie when it looked like it wasn't going to continue moving, xum bit the bullet and saved AV and/or Cao by voting Rogan, who he thought was going to flip town?

I feel like discussing about whether or not to discuss the strategy is a strategy.

Also, lynching on principle. There are very few good reasons to vote for anyone D1, and I have noticed I do suffer from D1 vote inertia. There needs to be a last ditch claim to save someone, only for that someone to kill me in a standoff all the way at the end.

Actually come to think of it, maybe Snow is the better wagon?

I'm willing to give a bit of credit. At time of this post, votes still hadn't swung Cao back into competitive territory, and Xumtiil was considering a vote change. It's possible Xum changed his mind about Rogan. The timing of that opinion change just looks extremely suspicious. It could be a coincidence, but I'd rather test that sooner than later.

That is fair, "they" referred to Rogan, and I'll re-read the thread, ISO some people and see if I can figure out somewhere my vote could be put to better use. AV at this point is capable of saving herself, and I don't see many people still hopping on to the AV wagon, more likely hopping off.

The thing about Rogan is that I'm flipflopping between them being wolfy and towny. There seems to be a lot of activity trying to save him, which is wolfy by itself, but the reasons why people started voting for him were overblown in my opinion.

Compared with the first quote in this post, now Xum says the reason he suspected Rogan is how the thread has shifted to save them, and he thinks the actual arguments about Rogan's behavior are overblown. That's...rather a different stance from the first quote. But then, in the first quote, barely anybody was trying to save Rogan. This post comes after Cao and Rogan got tied at 4 votes each, and now people "saving Rogan" is what makes Rogan suspicious, instead of the stuff Xum previously suspected him over but no longer suspects him over?

You're not keeping your story straight.