Percy Jackson Mafia 2

[Grand Arbiter]

Concert last night into new appliances today.

Let’s see what I left pulled up to reply to, and what’s new to answer. Try to unload it in a single post…

Meter is? That stuff about the lenght of sentences in poetry?

Meter in this case refers to the rhythm of the poetic verse.

My only complaint is the

"A troubled man ‘twixt joys and sorrows.
An optimist who shall outlive his woes."

line feels like it misses meter.

I am generally willing to damn meter in exchange for rhyme. Trying to have words line up with music is the primary exception where I strive to adhere to meter.

Oh my god, I've been about to post so many times and then I have 5 new posts and new information to consider and then it happens again and again.

I self-edit so much it’s not funny, so I definitely know this pain.

Last-draft edit: Hell, I think I spent over an hour total on this post.

Grand Arbiter. Who is null. Not interested in killing him D1 since it's a while since he's played, and I kind of want him/Elenna/bladescape/Xihirli to be town so we can avenge our previous defeat together.

That would be very nice, though I think we went out with a decent enough bang.

Which in my ideal fantasy world makes wolfteam Batcathat/AV/flat_footed/Rogan as people mainly responsible for our being screwed over.

I don't think we live in my ideal fantasy world.

Alas, I highly doubt it.

On the other hand, if they are scumbuddies, Grand Arbiter's noted in previous games that he doesn't lie. He'll use wordplay and deceit, but not outright lie, and I've seen him admit to being scum to hold to this.

Haven’t broken this yet, don’t plan on it now.

Virtual medium makes it easy for anyone to lie, and I feel like doing so would cheapen a win for me.

Cape … child of Ceres.

Child of Demeter needs to claim immediately, the Romans already know who you are.

WTF.

Not Child of Demeter, just damned surprised my D1 vote landed on a Roman.

Good shot by the child of Hephaestus with gift of Fire.

Also, Grand Arbiter dropped a vote on Cao that could easily have been distancing and then did very little else in the day. GA, what do you think of the wagon on Rogan yesterday? Think there are any wolves on it besides just Cao?

Something felt fishy about Rogan’s posting, just not enough for me to want to peel off my initial poke for lynch. My gut has been terribly wrong before.

Didn’t want to swap to AV so they’d actually get to play.

I’m willing to bet at least one more Roman pushing Rogan, to balance out the town presence on the other leading wagon. 2 narrator confirmed townies on Cao’s wagon in Snow and Rogan, I know I’m town, and Bladescape feels town.

So I’ll aim to take a closer look at Batcathat, Zelphas, Elenna, Xumtiil in the morning.

Interesting that GA chose to start from the bottom of the list and not the top. Could be an excuse to vote his wolfbuddy for distance? FWIW I feel like bussing was a lot rarer in this community the last time GA played here.

Spoiler: Player List from gac

Show

1. BatCatHat
2. Bladescape
3. AvatarVecna
4. Snowblaze
5. Valmark
6. Elenna
7. JeenLeen
8. Xihirli
9. Zelpas
10. Grand Arbiter
11. Book Wombat
12. CaoimhinThe Cape
13. Xumtil
14. Rogan
15. Flatfooted

I decided to flip to counting up from the bottom after seeing the abundance of high-activity posters towards the top.

True, but my point was that even early D1 distancing votes were quite rare on this forum until maybe a year ago, so I don't know if that's something GA would have thought to do. Although I also have no idea if they were reading the games while they were gone, so maybe that doesn't matter.

I don’t think it’s something I’ve ever done, but my memory isn’t the best and I don’t feel like digging through the archives tonight to examine my wolf games to check. Similarly unsure I’d have the cajones to stick to voting a felllow wolf to end-of-day.

I can definitely recall many games, both sides, poking other low-activity players in turn early game rather than sticking with my initial participation poke-vote, though. Irl is the primary factor that broke this pattern, secondary being everybody speaking up at a cursory glance.

- - - Updated - - -

So I’ll aim to take a closer look at Batcathat, Zelphas, Elenna, Xumtiil in the morning.

In case **** hits the fan while appliances are being installed tomorrow, and because of the excessively loud party a block over that’s persisting past midnight , I’m going to drop a vote now.

I am getting the exact same gut-feeling for Elenna like I did for Rogan, so I’m going to interpret that as a town read.

Of the three others, leaning Xumtiil based on their conversation contribution. For their post count it doesn’t feel like they are actually contributing much. Zelphas seems like a low-post-count townie like myself, and Batcathat is very active so I expect they will get caught if they try to pull any BS.

I’ll reread the vote-based logic y’all are following to vote for Xumtiil in the morning when I have a clearer head to make sure I fully understand.

[AvatarVecna]

Since every living player has posted since flat_footed pushed for the Demeter claim, and the only person who's even come close to counterclaiming was bladescape as a goof and/or subtle claim attempt just in case the child of demeter didn't come forward, I've gone ahead and marked JeenLeen as confirmed town.

Spoiler: Day 1

Show

Post 2
AvatarVecna (1): Xumtiil

Post 3
AvatarVecna (2): Xumtiil, Snowblaze

Post 4
AvatarVecna (2): Xumtiil, Snowblaze
Xihirli (1): Batcathat

Post 7
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Xihirli (1): Batcathat

Post 8
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Xihirli (1): Batcathat
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed

Post 13
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Xihirli (1): Batcathat
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli

Post 16
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Xihirli (1): Batcathat
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

Post 35
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Xihirli (1): Batcathat
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark

Post 39
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat

Post 47
AvatarVecna (4): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat

Post 61
AvatarVecna (4): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Grand Arbiter

Post 66
AvatarVecna (4): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Grand Arbiter
flat_footed (1): Zelphas

Post 68
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
flat_footed (1): Zelphas

Post 91
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Snowblaze (1): bladescape

Post 104
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Rogan (1): bladescape

Post 105
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Rogan (1): bladescape

Post 127
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Rogan (2): bladescape, Batcathat

Post 129
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan (3): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas

Post 134
AvatarVecna (2 1): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan (4): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze

Post 135 pt 1
AvatarVecna (2 1): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Grand Arbiter, Elenna, Valmark
Rogan (4): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze

Post 135 pt 2
AvatarVecna (3 2): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan (4): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze

Post 143
AvatarVecna (3 2): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan (5): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape

Post 144
AvatarVecna (4 3): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan (5): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape

Post 146
AvatarVecna (4 3): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Grand Arbiter
Rogan (6): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna

Post 172
AvatarVecna (4 3): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Rogan
Rogan (6): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna

Post 173
AvatarVecna (4 3): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Grand Arbiter, Rogan, bladescape
Rogan (5): Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna

Post 179
AvatarVecna (4 3): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Grand Arbiter, Rogan, bladescape, Snowblaze
Rogan (4): Batcathat, Zelphas CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna

Post 212
AvatarVecna (3 2): AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Grand Arbiter, Rogan, bladescape, Snowblaze
Rogan (5): Batcathat, Zelphas CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, Xumtiil

[Batcathat]

Haven’t broken this yet, don’t plan on it now.

Virtual medium makes it easy for anyone to lie, and I feel like doing so would cheapen a win for me.

That is an interesting approach to these games. Since you're saying that you know you're town later in the same post, I suppose this would rule you out if true (lying about never lying would certainly be entertainingly meta).

Since every living player has posted since flat_footed pushed for the Demeter claim, and the only person who's even come close to counterclaiming was bladescape as a goof and/or subtle claim attempt just in case the child of demeter didn't come forward, I've gone ahead and marked JeenLeen as confirmed town.

Spoiler: Day 1

Show

Post 2
AvatarVecna (1): Xumtiil

Post 3
AvatarVecna (2): Xumtiil, Snowblaze

Post 4
AvatarVecna (2): Xumtiil, Snowblaze
Xihirli (1): Batcathat

Post 7
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Xihirli (1): Batcathat

Post 8
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Xihirli (1): Batcathat
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed

Post 13
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Xihirli (1): Batcathat
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli

Post 16
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Xihirli (1): Batcathat
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat

Post 35
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Xihirli (1): Batcathat
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark

Post 39
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat

Post 47
AvatarVecna (4): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat

Post 61
AvatarVecna (4): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Grand Arbiter

Post 66
AvatarVecna (4): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, Elenna, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Grand Arbiter
flat_footed (1): Zelphas

Post 68
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
flat_footed (1): Zelphas

Post 91
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Snowblaze (1): bladescape

Post 104
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): Valmark
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Rogan (1): bladescape

Post 105
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
Elenna (1): Batcathat
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Rogan (1): bladescape

Post 127
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
flat_footed (1): Zelphas
Rogan (2): bladescape, Batcathat

Post 129
AvatarVecna (3): Xumtiil, Snowblaze, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan (3): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas

Post 134
AvatarVecna (2 1): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (2): Valmark, JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan (4): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze

Post 135 pt 1
AvatarVecna (2 1): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Grand Arbiter, Elenna, Valmark
Rogan (4): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze

Post 135 pt 2
AvatarVecna (3 2): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan (4): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze

Post 143
AvatarVecna (3 2): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Xumtiil (1): Xihirli
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan (5): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape

Post 144
AvatarVecna (4 3): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Elenna
Rogan (5): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape

Post 146
AvatarVecna (4 3): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (1): Grand Arbiter
Rogan (6): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna

Post 172
AvatarVecna (4 3): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (2): Grand Arbiter, Rogan
Rogan (6): bladescape, Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna

Post 173
AvatarVecna (4 3): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (3): Grand Arbiter, Rogan, bladescape
Rogan (5): Batcathat, Zelphas, Snowblaze, CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna

Post 179
AvatarVecna (4 3): Xumtiil, AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Grand Arbiter, Rogan, bladescape, Snowblaze
Rogan (4): Batcathat, Zelphas CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna

Post 212
AvatarVecna (3 2): AvatarVecna, Valmark, Xihirli
Book Wombat (1): flat_footed
Zelphas (1): Book Wombat
Batcathat (1): JeenLeen
CaoimhinTheCape (4): Grand Arbiter, Rogan, bladescape, Snowblaze
Rogan (4): Batcathat, Zelphas CaoimhinTheCape, Elenna, Xumtiil

Good overview, thanks for making it. I think I had kind of forgotten Elenna moved her vote to Cao when she did, making the wagons 3-2. At the time, I suggested that it might be the wolves wanting a second town wagon, but with Cao's flip that was obviously not the case. In combination with Elenna's posts today feeling towny, I think I should probably move off her for now, even if I'm still suspicious (I'm again reminded of letting one really suspicious thing cloud my judgement on the whole).

So the question is to who? The arguments against Xum are certainly piling up but he's got plenty of votes already and a second wagon would be good for discussion if nothing else. The second largest wagon is me, and I'm not as fond of self-voting as AV is. The only one else with even a vote is GA, but unless someone can disprove that "never lies" claim (or suggest a way that "I know I'm town" can be sneaky wordplay), it seems unlikely that he'd start now.

Hmm. I suppose Xumtiil it is then, I don't really have a good enough case against anyone else to try and start a brand new wagon.

[Book Wombat]

Uhh, I guess Xumtiil untiil further notice?

[Xihirli]

This is going to be the sticking point for me, I think. Regardless of absolutely anything else that happened: right Cao gained three votes and Rogan lost two, Xumtiil publicly admitted not thinking Rogan would flip town. And then after the tie, and after a couple hours of tie when it looked like it wasn't going to continue moving, xum bit the bullet and saved AV and/or Cao by voting Rogan, who he thought was going to flip town?

...

Compared with the first quote in this post, now Xum says the reason he suspected Rogan is how the thread has shifted to save them, and he thinks the actual arguments about Rogan's behavior are overblown. That's...rather a different stance from the first quote. But then, in the first quote, barely anybody was trying to save Rogan. This post comes after Cao and Rogan got tied at 4 votes each, and now people "saving Rogan" is what makes Rogan suspicious, instead of the stuff Xum previously suspected him over but no longer suspects him over?

This is convincing to me and GA has chimed in. Fairly thoughtfully, I might add.
So I think Xumtiil is a Roman, but right now Xum has such a crazy lead that I want to go for Zelphas as well. See if the other Romans reveal themselves trying to save their buddy.

[Xumtiil]

Well, let me give you some further notice.

I was feeling pressured to change my "joke/meme" vote on AV. I picked Rogan, which was wrong.

I made up for it by shooting Caoimhin at night.

Claiming Child of Hephaestus - Fire (Greek, obviously - and yes, AV, theoretically I could have shot my own wolf buddy at night)

I still find it NAGL for AV to lie to everyone about mechanics such as vote counts - I don't believe this helped town at all.

[bladescape]

I believe Xum here.

Batcathat

[AvatarVecna]

Well, let me give you some further notice.

I was feeling pressured to change my "joke/meme" vote on AV. I picked Rogan, which was wrong.

I made up for it by shooting Caoimhin at night.

Claiming Child of Hephaestus - Fire (Greek, obviously - and yes, AV, theoretically I could have shot my own wolf buddy at night)

I still find it NAGL for AV to lie to everyone about mechanics such as vote counts - I don't believe this helped town at all.

Get off your high horse and stop putting words in my mouth. It's not my fault you look suspicious as hell. You're the one who saved a wolf, I just happen to be the one who pointed it out first.

And I'm gonna wait to move my vote until we have a lack of counterclaims.

[Batcathat]

I believe Xum here.

Batcathat

Yeah, I kinda do too. Fakeclaiming a role we almost certainly know exists and having killed a wolf seems very short-sighted. I could see doing it right before EoD and hoping no one would have time to counterclaim, but not really at this point.

Of course, the problem is who I'd vote for instead. I think my first pick would be BW or perhaps going back to Elenna, but either seems like a wasted vote at the moment. I think I'll just follow AV's lead and see if there's a counterclaim after all.

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Also, I think I'm kind of townreading Xi after that vote. Whether or not Xum's a wolf, if Xi didn't want to vote for him, it would've been very easy to justify voting for me (already has votes and being suspected) to build on a (second?) town wagon, instead of Zelphas.

[Xihirli]

Hmm. I wasn't voting for Xumtiil before, but that was under the assumption he'd die today, meaning I wasn't actually seeking the death of my target. I will move onto Batcathat in that case.

Also, I think I'm kind of townreading Xi after that vote. Whether or not Xum's a wolf, if Xi didn't want to vote for him, it would've been very easy to justify voting for me (already has votes and being suspected) to build on a (second?) town wagon, instead of Zelphas.

Oh, well I guess I blew my towncred with the person I think could be a Roman.

[Elenna]

Okay so Batcathat unless we get a counterclaim, which I don’t expect.

[Batcathat]

Okay so Batcathat unless we get a counterclaim, which I don’t expect.

While I can't supply that, I'm thinking that maybe I should claim myself. I'm not sure it'll help much, but it probably won't hurt either and at least town will have all the information when deciding who to lynch.

Namely, that I won't actually die if lynched (well, not the first time, anyway). I am the hard to kill Child of Ares, with my extra life so far intact. I realize this might not convince anyone not to vote me, since it's obviously a possible claim for a wolf, whether one that actually has the power or as a bluff (I think AV faked a claim like this in some game?), but you should know that if I'm lynched, the lynch will be wasted and the only thing we'll learn is that I used to have an extra life.

I feel like I typically just have the worst sense of timing when I claim, so I don't know if this was a good idea, but at least the cards are on the table.

[AvatarVecna]

Zelphas for the moment.

[Xumtiil]

Oh lmao.

I don't need to do anything, town has it covered.

Also yeah, Demeter child claim.

Also there's two more town that I'm pretty sure that clears.

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Obviously don't claim for the non-Demeter roles but anywayyyyyyy.

I'm still curious about this, Bladescape - you said there are two more town that were cleared by the flips. I assume this is without the Demeter claim, which two did you mean?

[AvatarVecna]

I'm still curious about this, Bladescape - you said there are two more town that were cleared by the flips. I assume this is without the Demeter claim, which two did you mean?

Baner at least. Is my thought anyway. Maybe the martyr ares?

Edit: Nah not the ares. Def baner tho.

[Valmark]

We had a lot of night chat last game, but unless that's become the common gameplay style while I've been gone the last year, I recommend against it this game. At least early this game.

I feel like it made sense in a mostly vanilla game, but seems riskier for Town this game.

I shutted up for the night, but wanted to say- I think the opposite. If Town has more powers, sharing information at night is good- assuming the shared information doesn't include stuff like 'hey I'm the [include town role wolves want murdered ASAP]'.

gac: Did Snow get her result (assuming she used her power and it worked properly) despite her death?

Snow: If the answer to the above is "yes", it might be a good idea to reveal your result in the deadchat if you haven't already, so a potential Child of Hades knows it.

Potential Child of Hades: If you do get the result from Snow, it might be best to not openly reveal it (at least not right away), so you don't paint a target on your own back. Plus the normal issue of early scry results killing discussion.

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I wonder what the odds are the Snow decided to check out the second biggest wagon only for them to die together? That'd be annoying.

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That should be "that Snow", obviously. Though now I kinda want to start calling her the Snow. Sounds pretty cool (pun not intended).

+1.

Me too, but now I'm curious to see if Xum's alternative interpretation is correct. Of course even blade's grammar is cryptic.



I was about to question why you singled me out (Yes, I realize the hypocrisy of accusing you of being too focused on me) but after a quick check it seems I was the only one on Rogan's wagon confirmed to be present between his claim and EoD, so that's reasonable.

I feel compelled to specify that I came in, saw Rogan's claim, went to check what would have been Rogan's Roman power, then went back to the end of the thread and gac3's announcement of the End of Day was there.

Wether I had the time to change votes I don't know, but just wanted to clarify that I was online in the last seconds before EoD.

Just to be absolutely sure... gac: does the presence of a Child of Ceres guarantee that there's a Child of Demeter? (It seems very odd that it wouldn't be the case, but I just want to make sure the wolves haven't found a very safe fake claim).

Something anybody could've asked, but still good asking.

It'd be hilarious to be a Demeter/Ceres child without a partner.

Post 173 was when you already had already unvoted yourself. I thought, and other people thought, that we had a three way tie, and it didn't look like you were choosing either one to vote for, so I decided to break it.
You chose to keep your unvoting secret, not let anyone know the correct vote counts (to the point that it was a point of confusion at EOD), which is squarely not in the best interest of town.

I realize that in retrospect my choice of Rogan over Caoimhin looks bad, but it was an honest mistake. Your behaviour was purposefully deceitful.

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The only non-scum reason I could think of for keeping vote counts hidden would be if you were a survivor.

Or a serial killer who handily killed a Roman for us, I guess.

AV explains it later on, but while tricking (or trying to) Town is definitely shady (and I also didn't like AV's move there) it can also be done to trick wolves so... Kind of a toss up, failing other clues for Roman!AV.

Why break it? The case on Cao was "waffle-wolf", the case on me was "AV is always sus", and the case on Rogan was "weird reactions". Those are all perfectly viable D1 wagons. Unless town!Xum was absolutely convinced it was Rogan and that AV/Cao were both definitely innocent, the townie move here is to leave the tie alone. Let somebody else break it, and then later if one of the D1 wagons flips scum, now we've got some really interesting analysis we can do. Tied wagons are wolf traps that can be used to catch wolves days later.

Understand - if Cao and I had died in the night, and both had flipped town, this conversation wouldn't be happening - your vote change wouldn't be scum evidence, because there weren't any scum wagons D1. But Cao has flipped wolf, and now everything is gonna get over-analyzed. And like it or not, your vote is the one that doomed Rogan and saved Cao.

You realize that townies are allowed to be deceitful, yeah?

The last time I pulled this exact move, it was also when I was voting for myself, in a situation that made it look like I was blatantly trying to fly under the radar. Basically all of town voted me, and the situation was weird enough that every single one of the wolves waffled on voting for me. That waffle got them suspected. By the end of the day, I'd silently crossed out my own vote, and where the wolves thought we were tied (with me reaching the tie value first), instead the wolf was leading, and so the wolf was lynched. This game the rest of town a day's worth of controversial interactions to manage. My actions tripped wolves up so hard that they all accidentally left footprints for us to find later, and they were convinced I was the day-baner, which gave the real day-baner cover forever. Earlier, I mentioned a strategy where a veteran, dangerous player would make wild, unexplained accusations, purely to get reactions out of people, to see if they act like caught wolves. That's just as deceptive a strategy, and I'll tell you what, it works more than it has any right to.

Townies lying in order to catch wolves is, in fact, generally good town strategy. It's tricky to pull off properly, but it shakes up the game.

I left my vote where it was (on nobody) for the same reason that Snow moved her vote: she created the appearance of a three-way tie. She didn't know it was only the appearance of one, but I helped sell the illusion by not "moving" my vote. I left my vote absent, because everybody thought there was a three-way tie on AV/Cao/Rogan. The best thing I could do with my vote would be to return it to being a three-way tie, except that would put my life in danger. And we already have the appearance of a three-way tie. And I was thinking about this exact "Xum/Cao scumbuddies?" the second you moved your vote.

This is why I asked you if you'd noticed my uncrossed vote - if you did, the case against you is even stronger. You claim you didn't.

This is why I made noises about switching my vote to Cao - I wanted to see if we could get reactions from somebody else.

This is why my last post before EoD is fingering you without fully explaining why. I already had these wagonomics in mind, I just hadn't spelled them out yet.

This is why bladescape was nodding along with my Xum suspicions. And bladescape nodding along is why I didn't make this post last night - I'm tentatively townreading bladescape, and since they clearly saw the same thing I did, that would mean there would be somebody around D2 to make the case against you, so I didn't need to do that in the night.

This is why I told people I would hint at my role N2. I know you're not my scumbuddy, but to anybody else's perspective, your move could be saving either me or Cao from getting lynched. My offering a role hint at a later date is me saying directly to the vig and/or SK "I know we both look bad, but check Cao first".

I'm not seeing anything pointing to "Valmark suspects AV" other than the vote.

EDIT: The flaw in my scum!Cao theory is honestly the BCH wagon. If scum!Valmark wanted towncred for making a three-way tie, he could've put that vote on BCH instead of Cao.

I like that entire explanation. And while one still needs to consider that tricking town is also a wolf's main job, failing to have any other evidence cancelling a vote is mostly a wash if there aren't meaningful consequences.

Also, while I already explained the why, I should probably specify that yeah, there was no suspicion at the time towards you, AV.

These posts together are NAGL. First one literally is BCH casting doubt on the alignment of the person who just sniped Cao. Yes, it's theoretically possible they are a serial killer of some neutral deity we're unaware of currently. That's a reasonable concern to have. Except then we get BCH, sight unseen, assuming innocence on the part of a Child Of Hades who we don't even know if they exist or not. either of these is a reasonable way to approach these, but they're back to back from the same person, and they don't match.

Ugh... Remind me what was NAGL?

Either way, I don't think those were mutually exclusive? Saying that either the vig or a serial killer did a good job doesn't stop you from suggesting a potential Child of Hades a course of action. Also because 'Child of Hades' immediately implies you're only referring to the Greek one, and presumably Town!Bat wouldn't try and give advice to Romans.

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Well, let me give you some further notice.

I was feeling pressured to change my "joke/meme" vote on AV. I picked Rogan, which was wrong.

I made up for it by shooting Caoimhin at night.

Claiming Child of Hephaestus - Fire (Greek, obviously - and yes, AV, theoretically I could have shot my own wolf buddy at night)

I still find it NAGL for AV to lie to everyone about mechanics such as vote counts - I don't believe this helped town at all.

While fake-claiming vig as a last ditch effort makes some sort of sense, I think it's unlikely enough based on what we know that Xum should be left alone at least for D2.

Yeah, I kinda do too. Fakeclaiming a role we almost certainly know exists and having killed a wolf seems very short-sighted. I could see doing it right before EoD and hoping no one would have time to counterclaim, but not really at this point.

Of course, the problem is who I'd vote for instead. I think my first pick would be BW or perhaps going back to Elenna, but either seems like a wasted vote at the moment. I think I'll just follow AV's lead and see if there's a counterclaim after all.

+1. There's a very small world where a Roman team with a way to protect themselves from the vig could make good use of fake-claiming vig if the Roman was going to die anyway, but I think it's not a possibility to bank on.

While I can't supply that, I'm thinking that maybe I should claim myself. I'm not sure it'll help much, but it probably won't hurt either and at least town will have all the information when deciding who to lynch.

Namely, that I won't actually die if lynched (well, not the first time, anyway). I am the hard to kill Child of Ares, with my extra life so far intact. I realize this might not convince anyone not to vote me, since it's obviously a possible claim for a wolf, whether one that actually has the power or as a bluff (I think AV faked a claim like this in some game?), but you should know that if I'm lynched, the lynch will be wasted and the only thing we'll learn is that I used to have an extra life.

I feel like I typically just have the worst sense of timing when I claim, so I don't know if this was a good idea, but at least the cards are on the table.

What was the case on Bat again? The lynch could be used to prove his role, but it wouldn't prove the alignment. If we can postpone crossing this bridge, it's probably smart.

Baner at least. Is my thought anyway. Maybe the martyr ares?

Edit: Nah not the ares. Def baner tho.

Wait why would the baner be town cleared?
Baner is the Poseidon child with Healing Waters right?

[JeenLeen]

In lieu of a counterclaim, I'm willing to believe Xumtiil. He seemed really suspicious last game, too, at times; and everything that happened could be a legit townie move that just looks *really* bad in light of flips.

I was already voting Batcathat, and am willing to stay there. Yeah, we don't learn a lot if he's sincere about his claim, but... maybe Xumtiil can finish him off tonight? Or hit someone else you think is suspicious and we lynch again.

If Batcathat is the Roman Ares/Mars, perhaps he did the kill last night and thus the 'penetrates banes' kill is on cooldown N2. If I were a wolf with some heat one me (as scum!Batcathat was D1), I'd use my powerful kill N1 to make sure it gets in at least once this game.
In other words, if a baner exists, their power is likely useful tonight.

---

I'm curious if there's a voider around, but I worry revealing if one was "drunk" last Night might help the wolves more than town at the moment.

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Wait why would the baner be town cleared?
Baner is the Poseidon child with Healing Waters right?

Yeah, baner could be wolf. Likely was RNG, not Poseidon, since we got a Ceres power in the wolves.

[Batcathat]

I was already voting Batcathat, and am willing to stay there. Yeah, we don't learn a lot if he's sincere about his claim, but... maybe Xumtiil can finish him off tonight? Or hit someone else you think is suspicious and we lynch again.

I realize my opinion on the matter likely won't be very trusted (and this is exactly the sort of wannabe-martyr behavior I tend to distrust myself), but if I'm lynched and people still think I'm wolfy it would probably best if Xum shot me (unless he's really sure about a wolf, of course). As much as I enjoy living, I suspect that would only lead to 48 hours of everyone voting me and not discussing much, with another dead townie as a bonus if Xum guesses incorrectly.

[AvatarVecna]

If baner was scum; they would've protected Cao. Nobody was more likely to get scried/vig'd except maybe me. Thus, if there is a baner, they're town.

[Xihirli]

If baner was scum; they would've protected Cao. Nobody was more likely to get scried/vig'd except maybe me. Thus, if there is a baner, they're town.

OR you're Roman. This doesn't rule that out.

[Book Wombat]

Unvoted, am confused.

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As in general state of mind, not specifically Xumtiil.

[AvatarVecna]

OR you're Roman. This doesn't rule that out.

I'm not, but those are empty words. Baner is my guess because it makes sense from my perspective. I'm looking forward to bladescape clarifying what they meant tho.

[gac3]

Just to be absolutely sure... gac: does the presence of a Child of Ceres guarantee that there's a Child of Demeter? (It seems very odd that it wouldn't be the case, but I just want to make sure the wolves haven't found a very safe fake claim).

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On one hand, it feels like the wolves would rather jump on the AV wagon (assuming AV is town) in that situation, though I suppose they might've figured that a wagon based on memes and meta reasons wouldn't stay until EoD. I think I need to reread how the votes went around that time.

Yes. One child of Demeter/Ceres guarantees 2.

[Batcathat]

Yes. One child of Demeter/Ceres guarantees 2.

Good to know. Though I kind wished I hadn't asked, since that was apparently the wolfiest thing since Little Red Riding Hood's grandma.

Anyhow, general question: if you couldn't vote for myself or Xum, who would you vote and why?

[AvatarVecna]

Good to know. Though I kind wished I hadn't asked, since that was apparently the wolfiest thing since Little Red Riding Hood's grandma.

Anyhow, general question: if you couldn't vote for myself or Xum, who would you vote and why?

I'm voting Zelphas. Process of elimination: there was at least one and possible two wolves between the two counterwagons to Cao. Let's say you discount my wagon cuz you think I'm scum too. That leaves the Rogan wagon: Cao, BCH, Xumtiil, Zelphas, and Elenna. Cao is dead, Xumtiil is (so far) uncounterclaimed vig, you've got a claim indicating your lynch will give us no info. That leaves Elenna and Zelphas, who I am mildly townleanong/scumleaning respectively. I suspect Valmark more than either of them, but it's still a weak suspicion, and in any case I don't think people are willing to go along with a Valmark wagon right now.

[gac3]

Good to know. Though I kind wished I hadn't asked, since that was apparently the wolfiest thing since Little Red Riding Hood's grandma.

Anyhow, general question: if you couldn't vote for myself or Xum, who would you vote and why?

I'm not answering that. But are there any other questions I need to catch up on? About 15 hours left in the day.

[Batcathat]

I'm voting Zelphas. Process of elimination: there was at least one and possible two wolves between the two counterwagons to Cao. Let's say you discount my wagon cuz you think I'm scum too. That leaves the Rogan wagon: Cao, BCH, Xumtiil, Zelphas, and Elenna. Cao is dead, Xumtiil is (so far) uncounterclaimed vig, you've got a claim indicating your lynch will give us no info. That leaves Elenna and Zelphas, who I am mildly townleanong/scumleaning respectively. I suspect Valmark more than either of them, but it's still a weak suspicion, and in any case I don't think people are willing to go along with a Valmark wagon right now.

I haven't really had an opinion either way on Zelphas but after a quick look at their posts and vote history there's nothing that towny, at least, so you could be onto something. Though I don't really understand your reasoning for discounting your own wagon. While it's possible some people think you're being wolfy (your interactions with Xum reminded me a little of your interactions with me in Love Letter, for some reason. So I'm a little nervous, but generally leaning town on you, in case you're curious) it seems odd to discount it for that reason.

How do you feel about BW by the way? With my flip-flopping on Elenna and Xum cleared until further notice, he's probably my strongest wolflean at the moment.

Could you expand on your suspicions against Valmark?

I'm not answering that. But are there any other questions I need to catch up on? About 15 hours left in the day.

Aw, it would've been interesting to get your insight on that. I don't think there are any other questions, none from me at any rate.

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Oh, and on account of not being myself or Xum, Zelphas sounds good for now.

[AvatarVecna]

I haven't really had an opinion either way on Zelphas but after a quick look at their posts and vote history there's nothing that towny, at least, so you could be onto something. Though I don't really understand your reasoning for discounting your own wagon. While it's possible some people think you're being wolfy (your interactions with Xum reminded me a little of your interactions with me in Love Letter, for some reason. So I'm a little nervous, but generally leaning town on you, in case you're curious) it seems odd to discount it for that reason.

I know full well that I am not scum, and therefore I know that my wagon was a viable alternative to Cao in the eyes of his scumbuddies. But while that's obvious to me, I understand that not everybody can see my alignment. When I say "I think Valmark might be scum who was pushing me as an alternate wagon to a scumbuddy" people can be sitting there like "mmmmm idk I think you're scum actually so the people on your wagon aren't scum". We don't have to have the alignment debate with Rogan's wagon - we know Rogan was town, and we know he was an alternate wagon to Cao. What do you think the odds are that Cao was the only wolf on Rogan's wagon? That not a single scumbuddy helped him along the way? The options are you, Xum, Elenna, and Zelphas. Two of your are claiming, one of your feels mildly towny to me, and one of you feels mildly scummy to me.

(I will also hedge that bet by mentioning that I recall a previous game with scum!Elenna, where her wolf game was immaculate except for like two posts right at the start of the game that were a little strange, and I caught her on those two posts. It's possible that she's like that in general as scum, and you're the one who caught her early this time. I can't say for sure though, cuz I still don't see the scumcase you see in her even after having it explained.)

How do you feel about BW by the way? With my flip-flopping on Elenna and Xum cleared until further notice, he's probably my strongest wolflean at the moment.

My thoughts on Book Wombat, flat_footed, Grand Arbiter, JeenLeen, and Zelphas are more or less all identical on contribution. Which is to say, they're lacking, and I don't really know how to read them because there's nothing to read, so I have to go off gamestate. JeenLeen is cleared on gamestate, and Zelphas is suspicious primarily for some weird vote movements. There's nothing to case, any suspicions are pure gut feeling, and finding a wolf in that group is largely gonna come down to blind luck now that the seer is dead.

Could you expand on your suspicions against Valmark?

In post #135 in this thread, there is an order of events I find fishy.

Spoiler: Town!Valmark

Show

1) Town!Valmark does a full vote count, and now knows who everybody is voting for. Current wagons are AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 3.

2) Town!Valmark wants to set up tied wagons, so he votes for Cao, pushing things to AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 3/Rogan 3.

3) Town!Valmark posts, and then notices that he has been ninja'd: Snowblaze is now voting for Rogan (where before, she was voting for AV).

4) Town!Valmark forgets that Snowblaze was voting AV previously (despite having literally 5 minutes ago done a vote count), and Valmark thinks the current wagons are AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 4 (Cao 3 if we count Valmark's vote). Since Valmark wants to create tied wagons for first place, he moves his vote from Cao to AV, creating new totals of AV 4/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 4.

That's one possibility. Here is my theory:

Spoiler: Scum!Valmark

Show

1) Scum!Valmark does a full vote count, and now knows who everybody is voting for. Current wagons are AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 3.

2) Scum!Valmark wants the towncred for setting up tied wagons, and is willing to bus Cao to accomplish that (possibly on the assumption that the AV or Rogan wagons will win instead, or that other scum will be able to make sure Cao doesn't get lynched). Valmark votes for Cao, pushing things to AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 3/Rogan 3.

3) Scum!Valmark posts, and then notices that he has been ninja'd: Snowblaze is now voting for Rogan (where before, she was voting for AV). This means the wagons were previously AV 2/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 4, and Valmark's vote has pushed Cao to 3 votes, but not into a tie.

4) Scum!Valmark though that bussing was worth it for the towncred of making a tie, but since he can't make a tie with his vote anyway, he moves his vote off of his scumbuddy, onto AV.

5) Scum!Valmark gets called out on the above weird behavior, and defense himself by claiming he forgot that Snow had been voting AV, even though Valmark had literally just done a votecount.

This scenario makes more sense to me, personally.

[Xumtiil]

I wouldn't be opposed to a Valmark wagon, as an alternative to the Batcathat wagon.
I mean, if BCH is scum but honest about his role, he's going to be hard to kill, but won't have any other powers. If he's town, we don't really want to kill him.

It's likely that the other wolves that are still alive have more dangerous/involved powers than "needs a double tap".

I need to read up on Zelphas to see if that's a better wagon than Valmark to counter the BCH wagon, but my gut says no.

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Valmark
Putting my vote where my mouth is.

[Valmark]

I know full well that I am not scum, and therefore I know that my wagon was a viable alternative to Cao in the eyes of his scumbuddies. But while that's obvious to me, I understand that not everybody can see my alignment. When I say "I think Valmark might be scum who was pushing me as an alternate wagon to a scumbuddy" people can be sitting there like "mmmmm idk I think you're scum actually so the people on your wagon aren't scum". We don't have to have the alignment debate with Rogan's wagon - we know Rogan was town, and we know he was an alternate wagon to Cao. What do you think the odds are that Cao was the only wolf on Rogan's wagon? That not a single scumbuddy helped him along the way? The options are you, Xum, Elenna, and Zelphas. Two of your are claiming, one of your feels mildly towny to me, and one of you feels mildly scummy to me.

(I will also hedge that bet by mentioning that I recall a previous game with scum!Elenna, where her wolf game was immaculate except for like two posts right at the start of the game that were a little strange, and I caught her on those two posts. It's possible that she's like that in general as scum, and you're the one who caught her early this time. I can't say for sure though, cuz I still don't see the scumcase you see in her even after having it explained.)



My thoughts on Book Wombat, flat_footed, Grand Arbiter, JeenLeen, and Zelphas are more or less all identical on contribution. Which is to say, they're lacking, and I don't really know how to read them because there's nothing to read, so I have to go off gamestate. JeenLeen is cleared on gamestate, and Zelphas is suspicious primarily for some weird vote movements. There's nothing to case, any suspicions are pure gut feeling, and finding a wolf in that group is largely gonna come down to blind luck now that the seer is dead.



In post #135 in this thread, there is an order of events I find fishy.

Spoiler: Town!Valmark

Show

1) Town!Valmark does a full vote count, and now knows who everybody is voting for. Current wagons are AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 3.

2) Town!Valmark wants to set up tied wagons, so he votes for Cao, pushing things to AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 3/Rogan 3.

3) Town!Valmark posts, and then notices that he has been ninja'd: Snowblaze is now voting for Rogan (where before, she was voting for AV).

4) Town!Valmark forgets that Snowblaze was voting AV previously (despite having literally 5 minutes ago done a vote count), and Valmark thinks the current wagons are AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 4 (Cao 3 if we count Valmark's vote). Since Valmark wants to create tied wagons for first place, he moves his vote from Cao to AV, creating new totals of AV 4/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 4.

That's one possibility. Here is my theory:

Spoiler: Scum!Valmark

Show

1) Scum!Valmark does a full vote count, and now knows who everybody is voting for. Current wagons are AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 3.

2) Scum!Valmark wants the towncred for setting up tied wagons, and is willing to bus Cao to accomplish that (possibly on the assumption that the AV or Rogan wagons will win instead, or that other scum will be able to make sure Cao doesn't get lynched). Valmark votes for Cao, pushing things to AV 3/BCH 2/Cao 3/Rogan 3.

3) Scum!Valmark posts, and then notices that he has been ninja'd: Snowblaze is now voting for Rogan (where before, she was voting for AV). This means the wagons were previously AV 2/BCH 2/Cao 2/Rogan 4, and Valmark's vote has pushed Cao to 3 votes, but not into a tie.

4) Scum!Valmark though that bussing was worth it for the towncred of making a tie, but since he can't make a tie with his vote anyway, he moves his vote off of his scumbuddy, onto AV.

5) Scum!Valmark gets called out on the above weird behavior, and defense himself by claiming he forgot that Snow had been voting AV, even though Valmark had literally just done a votecount.

This scenario makes more sense to me, personally.

For whatever it's worth, a small precisation: I didn't make a full vote count. I took the most recent vote count then looked at the players that had changed votes since then. If I had done a full one I would've known who was voting who (including AV's vote judging by the time, but can't know that for sure).