Percy Jackson Mafia 2

[Valmark]

Yeah, I suppose that's true. And I do agree that even a confirmed baner isn't completely guaranteed to be town, while Cao seems like the natural target for a wolf baner, I could see a selfish baner protecting themselves instead. Though that's probably pretty unlikely, so if you're lying, it's probably about your entire role.

I do think something feels off about your claim, even if I can't really put my finger on it. So I think I'll keep my vote where it is for now and try to silence the voice in my head screaming that I'm making the same mistake all over again.

It may be that I didn't specify what I did N1? It's what you usually do especially while claiming a role like mine.

But you wouldn't be able to trust me either way since if I targeted someone and say who that tells the Romans a free target, so I'm bound to either lie or make it very WIFOM-y.

[Batcathat]

One hour to go (I think). I'm a little concerned that no one else has even reacted to Valmark's claim, whether or not they believe it.

[AvatarVecna]

Spoiler: Batcathat ISO

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I'm considering changing my vote to Xum for attempting to murder my eyes with that abomination of a color.

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Ooh, the color of abomination is rather pretty, on the other hand.

Null

This reminds me of that weird era of early computer games when the graphics were like 90 percent pink and cyan.

Null

Just so you don't feel left out (and because I'm naturally suspicious of people trying to steer the conversation. And of people in general), you get one question in return: Why did you pick those three to prod with questions?

Also, if it turns out that you're both a wolf and being sincere with that bonus, remind me to congratulate you after the game for a cool (if unnecessarily risky for no reason) move.

NAI.

To be fair to the Romans, wasn't a least some of the fire departments basically a way to scam people out of their property? Which I guess isn't really a defense of Roman, now that I think about it.

And whatever you feel about the Latin language and the Roman numerals, that Latin alphabet is pretty handy. (Okay, so they did steal parts of it, I think, but still).

Null.

Probably a solid 5 (yeah, I'm going straight for the middle of the road, what a shock, eh?). As you kind of mentioned yourself, it seems like more of a Snow move than one of yours, though I could see a towny you making it. I'm also aware that I think I tend to townread you too much, so deducting at least like one point to compensate for that.

I'll say this: I think BCH got serious quicker than other people did. I can appreciate that, but I'm also not sure whether that's more common for town or scum. I'd appreciate feedback from longer-term players on this matter, like bladescape and Grand Arbiter.

Maybe it's Xi's self-loathing over being Roman that's coming out as the least proportional anger of letter sounds imaginable?

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Goddamn Greek (or... Roman?) ninjas.

About as solid a theory as can exist at this point in the game, and I can't say I disagree. There was vehemence in the recruitment thread, but I don't remember this much of it.

As fun as psychoanalyzing Xi's feelings for Rome is, I'm gonna switch to Elenna. A wagon appearing that quickly makes me nervous and while Xum and Snow probably voted independent of each other, judging by the time, Elenna voted AV who already had two votes (out of four votes total, one which was on the non-playing Taff) which seems like a weird move to make for meta/joke reasons. Yes, the first votes of D1 are rarely based on much and lynching AV is a natural reaction to last game, but with no suspicions against anyone else, it's enough for me.

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I wonder how long it'll be before Taff goes crazy over following a game but not being able to talk to people about it?

NAI.

Yeah, you could very well be right about that. Though if I was a wolf and was served a chance to get (a towny) AV lynched D1 on a silver platter, I might be tempted to take it even if it's obvious.

This strikes me as TMI. BCH is casting suspicion on Elenna for pulling a move that a wolf would pull if they knew I was town. But it's only particularly suspicious of Elenna if you yourself already know AV is town - otherwise it just looks like a typical AV wagon. Heck, I went back to check, and the previous PJ game literally started with two votes on me as well (I'm sure I did something the previous game to deserve it).

No idea. The first D1 votes rarely stick, but there's not a lot of options right now (or rather, there are too many options, since there's no real wagon besides AV) and... well, it's AV, who always runs a risk of getting lynched on general principle, a risk that's probably doubled after the last game.

If you had to vote for someone (actually in the game) right now, who and why?

BCH gets pushed on the Elenna suspicion, and backs off a little bit. "Oh its early game so I dont actually expect those votes to stick, so don't take my theories about them too seriously".

Yeah, my evil plan was to create yet another one vote wagon. I'm clever like that.



Fair enough, even if I still think it looks kinda shady (though I think it'd look even worse if it wasn't specifically about AV ).



AV self-voting because they don't want to be a wolf yet again? AV self-voting because they're annoyed they're a wagon already? AV self-voting just to screw with my head? I think I'm too tired to even try answering that right now. The color name is a nice touch though.

Casting shade on my motivations for self-voting, even though that's basically my first signature move (with my second being whining about always dying early, of course).

Same here. If anyone's curious but can't be bothered, here's a spoiler.

And with that, I should really go to sleep two hours ago.

Null.

Probably a slight wolflean on Rogan. Partly because of him defending Elenna (of course, he also kind of has a point), partly because he seems a little trigger-happy about not-quite-accusing me (of course, it's hard to tell how reasonable his suggestions seems to someone who isn't me), partly because the whole fool discussion with AV just seems weird (of course, weird doesn't always mean wolfy and I can't really see any wolfy reasons in this case).

As you can probably tell from the built-in counterpoints, it's not exactly a strong case even all together.

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Good luck on the exams, by the way. You're doing way better about staying away-ish from the game than I expected, so that's probably a good sign.

Waffle-wolf, and it's lampshaded as such. My only hesitancy in auto-scumleaning this is because BCH has a big problem committing to reads as any alignment, IME. We actually got into an argument in dead chat about how high standards for clearing people really need to be.

It's worth noting that even this barely active version of yourself still have more posts than like half the players.

Not sure what to think of the switch. As always, changing something that's been pointed out as suspicious won't win any trust with me. But on the other hand, starting with a less serious vote and then switching after a while is classic D1 behavior. I could see a world where Elenna switches from AV to Cao both to look less suspicious and create another town wagon (in this scenario, both AV and Cao are town. Not sure how likely that actually is) but at this point I think I'm starting to tunnel on Elenna.

Regardless on Elenna's alignment and motive, I'm generally skeptical of wagons on inactive players, since they're a complete shot in the dark and even if it hits a wolf, there's not a lot to learn from it.

Reading this post from the assumption that BCH is town, the "not sure how likely it is AV and Cao are both town" definitely feels like waffle-wolf. Scum!BCH knows Cao is guilty, but doesn't wanna just flat-out call Cao town, even as a hypothetical, so it gets couched in clarifications.

Also, if BCH flips scum, guarantee there's at least one wolf in the inactives.

In addition to that, I feel like active townies are more likely to go after each other than less active people. Probably because it's easier to find something suspicious in fifteen posts than in two, not to mention that active posters are more on each other's radar than the less active ones. Which may very well play a part in my suspicions against you and Elenna, of course.



Yeah, it's absolutely a weak case (though non-existent seems harsh) and if you have a better one against someone else, I'm all ears.



Not much. I don't have a lot of trust in my ability to read BW and with only two posts to go on...? That said, I mostly agree with Elenna's possible interpretations of BW's list, though I think I'm landing on some very slight wolfpoints, "Oh, I'm so towny I accidentally made a town team instead of a wolf team" just looks so suspicious (but maybe that's why it's actually towny? ).

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Oh, and I don't think I've noticed whatever you're talking about in regards to BW.

Immediately after pointing out why aiming for low-activity players is just guess-work, BCH points out that high-activity players tend to gun for each other just because the influx of material makes it easier to arrive at conclusions. BCH agrees their case on Elenna is weak, and yet it's the single most persistent thing in their posts going forward, well into D2.

Yeah, "Would a wolf be this obvious?" is definitely an argument in favor of Elenna being town, maybe BW too. Though its worth keeping in mind that what is obvious is pretty subjective. Like last game, when I thought Xum's slip about having a power role was so obvious I didn't think twice about commenting on it, but some people had missed it.

Being calm is easy enough to fake in a PBP game, so I don't give too much weight to reactions like that (I even have an example specifically involving Elenna, when flat accused her of being a cultist in WoP, she naturally got nervous in the wolfchat, but played it cool in the thread).



That is interesting. I'm leaning towards it being a misunderstanding rather than a slip, but it absolutely could be the latter. Four wolves seems like a lot for the number of players, but it's possible, especially since gac mentioned wanting to make the game less townsided.

"4 wolves feels like a lot" no it doesn't. That would be pretty standard for a game this size. You should know this.

Ah, sorry. The potentially too obvious part of the case against BW was meant to be the "Oops, I made a town team" part, not the part you discovered.

And speaking of potential cases of wolves playing up their ignorance to look towny, now I kinda suspect Xum over that. I already miss having him as the only one I didn't suspect among the top posters (I don't suspect AV for any particular reason, just my baseline level of never trusting them completely).

I'm trying to avoid just auto-reading stuff as scummy in this ISO, and this is a point where I could easily see townies bringing up this point as well. I could see scum doing it as well (casting shade on someone they know isn't scum), but that's not the only easy explanation here.

I think the idea is that Rogan asked for specifically three powers and BW answered with four. But yeah, even compared to my "case" against Elenna, I don't think it's a very strong one (together with the accidental(?) towniness of the first list, it's a little stronger but BW wouldn't be my first choice for the lynch at the moment).

Once again, BCH downplaying the strength of their own Elenna case, despite how hard they've clung to it. Actions speak louder than words.

I agree with her about the possible interpretations, but disagree about which one is more likely.



Right now it's probably a draw between Elenna and you. Elenna for the previously stated reasons and you for previously stated reasons plus I can see blade's point about the BW question. Still not a strong case against either of you, but several things that don't feeel quite right (which is what Snow said about me last game and she was right on the money. ).

When pushed for answers, references what they've previously said without anything new to add to it. Of course, this isn't all that far into the day, but still.

I think that's just Rogan assuming that Elenna will still be my first pick for the lynch.

Isn't she? You've stated her case is weak, but that the case on Rogan is even weaker, and that you think the Elenna case is reminding you of Snow's case on you from a previous game where you turned out to be scum. By all accounts, your strongest (indeed, apparently only) suspicion seems to be on Elenna at this point. Rogan was accurately reading the situation.

On a unrelated note, what the hell happened to the activity level all of a sudden? I think we've posted more the last hour than the day before it.

The culprit you seek lives in the mirror.

Since I don't seem to get a lot of support on Elenna, I might as well switch to Rogan. With some luck, his flip might shed a little light on Elenna (and BW) too.

NAI. The elenna wagon wasn't happening, so BCH switched to a wagon with some heft behind it.

No, I don't think their votes on AV are anywhere near as suspicious as Elenna's. Xum was the first to vote and Snow voted at practically the same time, so I'm assuming Snow hadn't seen Xum's vote. Now, it's not impossible for Snow to have made her vote knowing of Xum's, either by the two of them colluding (if that was an intentional play by two wolves, they certainly went into the game swinging) or Snow seeing Xum's vote and posting hers very quickly.

Basically, putting the first vote on someone (and especially AV, especially after last game) doesn't look particularly wolfy to me, putting the third vote (especially when there are so few votes in total) is looking considerably more so.

Of course, none of this means that Snow and Xum can't be wolves, I just don't think their AV votes are hinting at that.

This is a lot of words but I don't feel it's saying too much. "Early D1 votes aren't sus untless they make a wagon". Not exactly a shocking statement.

I know the feeling. When I die in these games I'm usually disappointed but also a little bit relieved that I can finally relax.



Yeah, that burst of activity ended as quickly as it began. Not sure how to interpret it. It could be that Rogan is town and doesn't have any buddies to defend him, but I think it's just as likely that the wolves either have given up on saving him or (perhaps more likely) are hoping it'll turn around on its own before they do something that might raise suspicions.



It's probably referring to my comment about Xum misunderstanding how the wolves' powers work, which I thought might be a wolf feigning ignorance to look towny. I still think it's a possibility, but I can't say I have any serious suspicions against Xum at this time.

On a unrelated note, AV's post got me thinking about what games I've enjoyed the most and I realized that of the three that first came to mind (Love Letter, Words of Power and Upick 2, in no particular order) I didn't win a single one, which is kinda funny. That's not to say I can't be bothered by a loss, I'm still annoyed with myself over the original Percy Jackson.

Null.

That is a good point. He might be a wolf who has found that sweet spot between being on everyone's radar and looking like you're trying to hide. Not cause for alarm, but worth keeping in mind.

I don't love the idea of the lynch being decided by random chance, but unless someone has a good (by D1 standards) against AV or Cao, I don't think I'll be switching.

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That should be "a good case", obviously.

NAI.

Heh, "geek God".

Nice color choice, by the way.

Null.

Depends on the options. I'd be fine with lynching Xum over AV or Cao, but Rogan (or Elenna) would still be my first choice.

Weirdly, I feel like this is town-leaning. Townies tend to tunnel more IME than wolves, who tend to waffle. Doesn't change that the initial suspicion of Elenna feels scummy.

Someone switching things around at the last minute can be interesting, even if the possibility is kinda stressing me out a little. But I don't like the possibility that it's entirely decided by chance, mostly because I prefer keeping the random element to a minimum in games and prefer to win — or lose — based on the skill and decisions of those involved. In this particular case, I'm extra concerned due to the people involved. I'd be more okay if the tie was between, say, you and Elenna.

NAI.

I think Xum did basically the same thing last game though, didn't he? Of course, it would be kinda clever to establish doing something like that as town, just so you do it as a wolf.



I think it was about using the color of fools in particular.

Other than that, I mostly agree with your conclusions. There's not a lot there.

NAI.

I'm afraid that's basically it. It's D1, vague feelings and overanalyzed behavior is all we have. I am kinda curious about what you think my motives might be, but there's nothing more to it.

NAI.

My case (if it could even be called that) is just what I've previously stated. Voting AV for allegedly joke/meta reasons when there was already two votes on them (out of three valid votes in total) seems shady to me. I get making a whatever first vote before getting serious, but I still don't like it.

I should probably ISO Elenna myself, to see if I can find anything else, now that I think about it.

NAI.

Isn't hedginess basically NAI for me at this point? I should have the ISO done before EoD but it might be a few hours more, I can't use all my time at work for this game.



Yeah, that's certainly a possibility, though I wouldn't rule out either of you being a wolf without the other. Are you just curious or are you building to something?

Lampshading the waffle. I appreciate questioning the motive behind the question though.

Yeah, I get that. That's part of why I was fine switching my vote to you, I think the one thing is a pretty good reason to suspect her but the situation does sort of remind me of when I found Snow making a random vote so suspicious I let it overshadow her overall towniness.



I'm not sure I understand your reasoning. Why wouldn't a wolf think of accusing townies of being w/w?

I think Rogan gives a good response to this, and it's a definite point against BCH. Town is more likely to suspect w/w than wolves are to make a false w/w accusation. That's not to say it doesn't happen, it's just more natural for town to suspect it than for wolves to concoct such a false accusation.

Yeah, that's reasonable. One upside of me starting to obsess over Elenna and Rogan is that it kept me from overanalyzing that note.

NAI.

Sounds good. I should probably return the favor at some point, you feel towny enough that I just kind of assume that you are, but that's a dangerous attitude.

And speaking of ISOs...

Spoiler: ISO on Elenna

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I think I've said all I can say about this already. I do think it's a red flag, even if I can understand why not everyone would agree.





I wonder if AV knew what they started when they mentioned that word color thing in the pregame chat?





Like I said earlier, I disagree a little about the conclusion on BW, but there's nothing wolfy about the reasoning, I think. Not sure I agree with Snow about it looking actively towny, but maybe I'm just having some tunneling bias.



I've commented on this already. A lot of interpretation obviously depends on Cao's alignment. Creating another wagon is good for town (especially since AV's was basically nothing), but it could easily be a wolf trying to create competing town wagons.



Finally a meatier post, but I'm not sure what to make of it. I'm definately going back to it when/if Rogan flips, regardless if it is as wolf or town.

I didn't really find anything new, so I think my opinion on Elenna is more or less the same. I realize I might giving to much weight to her AV vote and letting it color my opinion on the rest, but I feel it's good enough for a D1 case.

Also, I thought the forum had eaten this post. Praise Zeus for the autosave function.

I don't recall Elenna's ISO striking me as all that controversial. Honestly the most suspicious thing she's done so far is her incessant (and incorrect) defense of Valmark D2. If Valmark were to flip scum, I'd definitely be eyeing Elenna more skeptically.

Good to know, I thought there was about two hours left when you wrote this. Stupid time zones.

Null.

Also, I'm kinda curious about what qualifies as "reasonable time" at your job. EoD is 7 am your time, right?

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Aimed at gac, obviously. Darn ninjas.

Null.

Good point. I guess a parent scry might even be more useful to wolves than town, since they'd be more interested in what powers people might have than their alignment.



If that's the case, what's the point of Apollo's wolf power?

Scrying as a Child of Apollo only seems useful if other wolves don't scry as having a Greek parent. Or am I missing something?

A useful question, at least.

I really need to make a habit of rereading the recruitment thread when the game starts, this wouldn't be the first time I've forgotten something that was said there.

Null.

Well, that sucks. Sorry Rogan.

The vote count doesn't quite match what I have in my sheet, but I might've forgotten to keep it updated. Will double-check. Either way, it's nothing that would change the result.

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Yeah, I had AV, Xi and BW, but like I said I might've missed something.

Red flag. Scum points for BCH.

Even with AV having removed their selfvote, my sheet and the vote count don't quite make sense. Figuring that out might be a fun night time activity for me, but I'm guessing user error is more likely than someone screwing with the votes.

Null.

Okay, I think I figured it out (to no one's surprise, it turned out it was my fault), for some reason I had mixed up BW and Valmark when entering Valmark's votes on Cao and AV, which screwed everything up.

With that comedy of errors out of the way, we resume our regularly schedualed wolf hunting.

Null.

Not really. Like I said to Rogan, while them being w/w was a possibility (and Rogan's defense of Elenna was one of the reasons I started suspecting him), my reasons for suspecting Elenna doesn't really have anything to do with Rogan. (Incidentally, Elenna is also my answer to your question about likeliest wolf on the Rogan wagon, but I'll have to think on the other ones).

NAI.

What do you mean? As I think I've made quite clear, I'm definately suspicious of Elenna too (and has been since before I started suspecting Rogan).

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Are you asking if Rogan's defense itself made me more suspicious of Elenna? I don't think it did, though if Rogan had flipped wolf I would likely have reevaluated that stand, obviously.

NAI.

I think the best I can come up with right now is you, with the very scientific reasoning of generally seeming like your townself. Maybe AV, but that's pure gut feeling at the moment, and my gut is kind of an idiot.



I'm fine with keeping the night talk to a minimum if that's the consensus (it seems to kinda vary from game to game), I'll be busy for part of the night anyway.

NAI.

Hard to say. Maybe you, Snow and... either blade or Jeen.



Tough to say. If Cao's a wolf, they almost certainly wouldn't, since just switching off from Rogan would give Cao a 50 percent chance of dying and moving your vote to someone other than Cao might still not look very towny, since Rogan's still likely to get lynched. If Cao's not a wolf... I don't know. I could see letting Rogan live for the towncred regardless of his role, but if they're switching to Cao and he flips town, they might look suspicious over that instead, especially since a living Rogan wouldn't really be able to prove his powers or alignment. I think I would've stayed on Rogan as a wolf.



Maybe? I do like "townreading" townies when I'm a wolf, to pocket them at best or at least create confusion after I flip. But yeah, doing it to you specifically after last game is probably less likely. Or maybe that is why I would do it?



I don't really have any other strong wolfreads. Maybe Xum, but that's still based mainly on possibly feigning ignorance and the lack of content that you pointed out. I was kind of townreadning blade since he agreed with me on Rogan and Elenna, but if they're both town, he might not be. I still don't really agree with Rogan's interpretation of BW's "slip", but I suppose it's possible (and that "oops, I made a towny list" still looks a little shady) so he's another option.

I can't honestly say I expected anybody to answer such a bad-faith question. It doesn't help that this post gives the appearance that BCH has thought about how scum!BCH would act if Cao was scum, but now how scum!BCH would act if Cao was town. That part was "idk" and then improv.

Can I preemptively vote to lynch you for that headline?

Null.

Well, that's not great but I suppose it could be worse. Good pick by the vig (or serial killer?).

Now that we know both Cao's and Rogan's alignment, hopefully we'll be able to make something out of the D1 votes. I have no idea right away, except that moving his vote to a wolf buddy in that situation seems like the kind of risky but potentially rewarding move a wolfy blade might do (no reason to think he actually did, though).

It's probably nothing, but I keep wondering if those notes have any greater meaning. In this case, it sounds like Snow's death happened because of Cao's somehow, but that's probably unlikely. So probably just flavor.

Hopefully someone has something more solid to go on, but for now I'm going to stay the course and vote Elenna.

The most active person in the thread (someone with objectively more time for this than most people) leaves the heavy lifting of "figure out what that means" to other people. I could (and frequently do, unfortunately) see this often in townies, although it's rarely so explicit as "I know what needs doing, but I'm not going to do it myself". It feels scummy, but I don't know if that's just my bitterness talking. I feel like I keep digging to see if there's a case on somebody, when nobody else is trying half as hard publicly to find anything or kickstart discussions, and then I've gotta start over because of a claim. I feel like I just get pushback from people, not competing theories.

gac: Did Snow get her result (assuming she used her power and it worked properly) despite her death?

Snow: If the answer to the above is "yes", it might be a good idea to reveal your result in the deadchat if you haven't already, so a potential Child of Hades knows it.

Potential Child of Hades: If you do get the result from Snow, it might be best to not openly reveal it (at least not right away), so you don't paint a target on your own back. Plus the normal issue of early scry results killing discussion.

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I wonder what the odds are the Snow decided to check out the second biggest wagon only for them to die together? That'd be annoying.

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That should be "that Snow", obviously. Though now I kinda want to start calling her the Snow. Sounds pretty cool (pun not intended).

I've said my piece on this. I don't like that it looks like BCH is casting shade on the person who just killed a wolf, and then immediately turned around giving benefit of the doubt to a role we don't even have evidence suggesting they exist yet. but that might just be me overreacting.

Me too, but now I'm curious to see if Xum's alternative interpretation is correct. Of course even blade's grammar is cryptic.



I was about to question why you singled me out (Yes, I realize the hypocrisy of accusing you of being too focused on me) but after a quick check it seems I was the only one on Rogan's wagon confirmed to be present between his claim and EoD, so that's reasonable.

NAI.

Just to be absolutely sure... gac: does the presence of a Child of Ceres guarantee that there's a Child of Demeter? (It seems very odd that it wouldn't be the case, but I just want to make sure the wolves haven't found a very safe fake claim).

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On one hand, it feels like the wolves would rather jump on the AV wagon (assuming AV is town) in that situation, though I suppose they might've figured that a wagon based on memes and meta reasons wouldn't stay until EoD. I think I need to reread how the votes went around that time.

I appreciate that the question was asked. NAI though.

Yeah, I kinda agree with this. I'm not sure it'll help the wolves much, but I also don't see any reason it could help town knowing why the vig picked who they did. If it turns out that Cao was killed by a serial killer it might be more interesting, I guess.

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Why? It's probably not very likely, but if I can be 100 percent sure Jeen is town instead of 98 percent sure, I'd prefer it.

I was previously just sarcastic when this point was brought up, but I'll make it more clear: more discussion is better for town's ability to arrive at the truth. Are you worried the kill came from a serial killer? Are you wondering if the scum!vig got misdirected somehow? Well you know one way we're definitely not going to find out until after the game? By never talking about it. That's not to say that talking about it will definitely result in us puzzling it out. But not talking about it guarantees that we won't. Additionally, seeing different people share their thoughts on what this-or-that person was targeted by the wolves, or the vig, or whoever, gives us insight into their state of mind and opinion, which can be picked apart for inconsistencies or oddities.

Are you saying you'll vote yourself if I flip town or if gac says there's a chance a Demeterless Ceres? Either way, it seems like kind of an overreaction to being wrong.

And yeah, I'm not saying my suggestions is likely, but if I can get a definitive confirmation (and gac seems pretty generous with those) it's preferable to not getting one.

This response feels towny to me, honestly. Just the right touch of exasperation.

Ah, let's hope she has kids then (unless you're both a wolf and a man of your word, I suppose).

Out of curiosity, did you write the second part before or after reading Xi's post advocating solving by mass suicide?

Null.

What? I never disagreed with that, I thought it was a good idea and I do think Jeen is town, I just wanted to make absolutely sure.

It's possible I overreacted, I just don't like how the "question the validity of the child of demeter" only started once somebody had claimed. It really looks like you kept this "concern" quiet until a claim emerged, and then you immediately started shading it.

That is an interesting approach to these games. Since you're saying that you know you're town later in the same post, I suppose this would rule you out if true (lying about never lying would certainly be entertainingly meta).



Good overview, thanks for making it. I think I had kind of forgotten Elenna moved her vote to Cao when she did, making the wagons 3-2. At the time, I suggested that it might be the wolves wanting a second town wagon, but with Cao's flip that was obviously not the case. In combination with Elenna's posts today feeling towny, I think I should probably move off her for now, even if I'm still suspicious (I'm again reminded of letting one really suspicious thing cloud my judgement on the whole).

So the question is to who? The arguments against Xum are certainly piling up but he's got plenty of votes already and a second wagon would be good for discussion if nothing else. The second largest wagon is me, and I'm not as fond of self-voting as AV is. The only one else with even a vote is GA, but unless someone can disprove that "never lies" claim (or suggest a way that "I know I'm town" can be sneaky wordplay), it seems unlikely that he'd start now.

Hmm. I suppose Xumtiil it is then, I don't really have a good enough case against anyone else to try and start a brand new wagon.

Towny for thinking about wagonomics.

Yeah, I kinda do too. Fakeclaiming a role we almost certainly know exists and having killed a wolf seems very short-sighted. I could see doing it right before EoD and hoping no one would have time to counterclaim, but not really at this point.

Of course, the problem is who I'd vote for instead. I think my first pick would be BW or perhaps going back to Elenna, but either seems like a wasted vote at the moment. I think I'll just follow AV's lead and see if there's a counterclaim after all.

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Also, I think I'm kind of townreading Xi after that vote. Whether or not Xum's a wolf, if Xi didn't want to vote for him, it would've been very easy to justify voting for me (already has votes and being suspected) to build on a (second?) town wagon, instead of Zelphas.

Note to self: ISO Xihirli.

While I can't supply that, I'm thinking that maybe I should claim myself. I'm not sure it'll help much, but it probably won't hurt either and at least town will have all the information when deciding who to lynch.

Namely, that I won't actually die if lynched (well, not the first time, anyway). I am the hard to kill Child of Ares, with my extra life so far intact. I realize this might not convince anyone not to vote me, since it's obviously a possible claim for a wolf, whether one that actually has the power or as a bluff (I think AV faked a claim like this in some game?), but you should know that if I'm lynched, the lynch will be wasted and the only thing we'll learn is that I used to have an extra life.

I feel like I typically just have the worst sense of timing when I claim, so I don't know if this was a good idea, but at least the cards are on the table.

It's a very...frustrating claim, I'll tell you what. Half the reason I've been putting off this ISO is to avoid having to eye that particular bottle of wine. However, I've arrived at a conclusion I feel solid on.

This power wastes a kill. There are two situations where the bonus life is good for town: when it blocks a vig kill on a townie, and when it blocks a wolf kill on a townie. Blocking a lynch is blocking town info gathering, especially now that both seers are dead. Blocking a vig kill wastes a vig kill, but it was already being wasted, and it's possible the blocked kill won't get publicly mentioned and give the game away to wolves. But most usefully, this can block a wolf kill. Wasting a wolf kill is what you want to do with this power. And you can't do that if you claim.

The townie way to handle this power is to make them pry that claim from your cold dead hands. If it looks like you're gonna get lynched, you don't claim, because then you stick the whole of town in WIFOM paralysis. You throw out theories like there's no tomorrow, to make people believe there isn't one for you. Refuse to claim and push solid counterwagons. Hint at your role being powerful and useful, but refuse to specify. Because if wolves ever realize you're the Hard To Kill Townie, they'll just let you live to end-game. Why bother wasting a kill on you when they can use the end-of-game wrap up to kill you trivially?

All that in mind, I think with how active you've been, you've put a lot of thought into things, and especially would've thought on the strategy to using your power. And I don't think town!BCH would've claimed this, not honestly. This is either a lie, or a grave mistake. And I'm inclined to scumread you for it.

I realize my opinion on the matter likely won't be very trusted (and this is exactly the sort of wannabe-martyr behavior I tend to distrust myself), but if I'm lynched and people still think I'm wolfy it would probably best if Xum shot me (unless he's really sure about a wolf, of course). As much as I enjoy living, I suspect that would only lead to 48 hours of everyone voting me and not discussing much, with another dead townie as a bonus if Xum guesses incorrectly.

NAI.

Good to know. Though I kind wished I hadn't asked, since that was apparently the wolfiest thing since Little Red Riding Hood's grandma.

Anyhow, general question: if you couldn't vote for myself or Xum, who would you vote and why?

I haven't really had an opinion either way on Zelphas but after a quick look at their posts and vote history there's nothing that towny, at least, so you could be onto something. Though I don't really understand your reasoning for discounting your own wagon. While it's possible some people think you're being wolfy (your interactions with Xum reminded me a little of your interactions with me in Love Letter, for some reason. So I'm a little nervous, but generally leaning town on you, in case you're curious) it seems odd to discount it for that reason.

How do you feel about BW by the way? With my flip-flopping on Elenna and Xum cleared until further notice, he's probably my strongest wolflean at the moment.

Could you expand on your suspicions against Valmark?



Aw, it would've been interesting to get your insight on that. I don't think there are any other questions, none from me at any rate.

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Oh, and on account of not being myself or Xum, Zelphas sounds good for now.

After ISOing Zelphas, I'm surprised you didn't see anything particularly towny. My read was based on impressions of the thread as a whole, not posts.

In addition to that, I believe blade is still voting me too? I have myself at five votes, though I haven't double checked.

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Didn't you say you'd prefer voting Valmark over Zelphas and only didn't because a Valmark wagon was less likely?

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Oh, nevermind, I see you had blade voting for me, it was my sheet that was messed up again. I should stop posting right after waking up.

Townie points for calling me out on a perceived inconsistency.

Now I'm feeling split between Zelphas and Valmark. Zelphas doesn't really make me lean one way or the other, though I suppose the lack of solid content could be a wolfsign in itself. With Valmark, there are a few things that feels pretty towny (even if I suspect I'm a little biased by things like actually agreeing with me about asking about Demeter/Ceres) but also a few that's pretty wolfy. I think the behavior around Rogan's flip that AV pointed out looks especially bad.

I would be willing to vote either of them (especially if the alternative is saying good bye to my extra life), but if I'm not sure who'd my first pick would be.

NAI.

With me not being able to make up my mind, I might as well trust AV and vote Valmark. The chance of AV being wrong is probably lower than me being wrong on my own (the chance of AV being a wolf is higher than me being one, but still not that high, I hope).

NAI.

Gah, why do people I want to lynch keep claiming town roles?

With Rogan, I kept my vote where it was despite the claim and that turned out to be the wrong call. So I kinda want to trust you. On the other hand, if the wolves know that role isn't in play (thanks to a Child of Minerva, for example) that's a pretty safe claim that can't be easily tested (well, I suppose we could have Xum shoot you and telling you to protect yourself).

Waffle.

Sorely tempted to move my vote here. I definitely think BCH needs to be checked, sooner than later.

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One hour to go (I think). I'm a little concerned that no one else has even reacted to Valmark's claim, whether or not they believe it.

I've been busy. You talk a lot.

[Batcathat]

The most active person in the thread (someone with objectively more time for this than most people) leaves the heavy lifting of "figure out what that means" to other people. I could (and frequently do, unfortunately) see this often in townies, although it's rarely so explicit as "I know what needs doing, but I'm not going to do it myself". It feels scummy, but I don't know if that's just my bitterness talking. I feel like I keep digging to see if there's a case on somebody, when nobody else is trying half as hard publicly to find anything or kickstart discussions, and then I've gotta start over because of a claim. I feel like I just get pushback from people, not competing theories.

That's a fair complaint, regardless of your (or mine) alignment. I felt I was lacking in experience rather than in time, but I could still have made more of an effort.

It's a very...frustrating claim, I'll tell you what. Half the reason I've been putting off this ISO is to avoid having to eye that particular bottle of wine. However, I've arrived at a conclusion I feel solid on.

This power wastes a kill. There are two situations where the bonus life is good for town: when it blocks a vig kill on a townie, and when it blocks a wolf kill on a townie. Blocking a lynch is blocking town info gathering, especially now that both seers are dead. Blocking a vig kill wastes a vig kill, but it was already being wasted, and it's possible the blocked kill won't get publicly mentioned and give the game away to wolves. But most usefully, this can block a wolf kill. Wasting a wolf kill is what you want to do with this power. And you can't do that if you claim.

The townie way to handle this power is to make them pry that claim from your cold dead hands. If it looks like you're gonna get lynched, you don't claim, because then you stick the whole of town in WIFOM paralysis. You throw out theories like there's no tomorrow, to make people believe there isn't one for you. Refuse to claim and push solid counterwagons. Hint at your role being powerful and useful, but refuse to specify. Because if wolves ever realize you're the Hard To Kill Townie, they'll just let you live to end-game. Why bother wasting a kill on you when they can use the end-of-game wrap up to kill you trivially?

All that in mind, I think with how active you've been, you've put a lot of thought into things, and especially would've thought on the strategy to using your power. And I don't think town!BCH would've claimed this, not honestly. This is either a lie, or a grave mistake. And I'm inclined to scumread you for it.

I suppose I can appreciate you thinking I'm smarter than I am. My reasoning – whether correct or not – was that if I didn't claim, I was very likely to be lynched, with town learning barely anything from it and in the worst case scenario (me being lynched but not NK'd afterwards) the same thing would happen all over again the next day, presumably reducing discussion to a crawl.

I've been busy. You talk a lot.

Says the one person with more posts. I also noticed that Rogan is still number three, despite his early death. He was very chatty.

[Grand Arbiter]

With the uncountered role claims thus far, I’m not sure anybody feels like a good target today.

Batcathat (3): flat_footed, Elenna, Grand Arbiter
Xumtiil (1): Grand Arbiter
Zelphas (2): bladescape, Valmark
Valmark (5): Xumtiil, Zelphas, Xihirli, Batcathat, AV

That said I don’t want to be responsible for shooting the baner or the vig, Zelphas reads like low-activity town and BCH’s claim is one I could see being a wolf. My vote shouldn’t change the end-of day result unless there is a vote-manipulation power in play, so I feel like checking for that.

[AvatarVecna]

With the uncountered role claims thus far, I’m not sure anybody feels like a good target today.

Batcathat (3): flat_footed, Elenna, Grand Arbiter
Xumtiil (1): Grand Arbiter
Zelphas (2): bladescape, Valmark
Valmark (5): Xumtiil, Zelphas, Xihirli, Batcathat, AV

That said I don’t want to be responsible for shooting the baner or the vig, Zelphas reads like low-activity town and BCH’s claim is one I could see being a wolf. My vote shouldn’t change the end-of day result unless there is a vote-manipulation power in play, so I feel like checking for that.

I agree that this is valuable, but it's something we'll be able to see regardless of if the wagons are tied or not - gac will tell us who is voting on which wagon, and what the total votes are. With that in mind, I think I'm gonna tie things up; I'm fine checking either of them cuz I suspect scum, but BCH's claim risks the least if they're telling the truth. Batcathat.

[Valmark]

BatCatHat. I'm sorry, but I'd rather take away one of your lives (which means you'll keep playing) then lose my only one.

[Batcathat]

I agree that this is valuable, but it's something we'll be able to see regardless of if the wagons are tied or not - gac will tell us who is voting on which wagon, and what the total votes are. With that in mind, I think I'm gonna tie things up; I'm fine checking either of them cuz I suspect scum, but BCH's claim risks the least if they're telling the truth. Batcathat.

Are you tieing it up though? Isn't Jeen still on me? (Though as much as I've screwed up my record keeping this game, I could be wrong).

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BatCatHat. I'm sorry, but I'd rather take away one of your lives (which means you'll keep playing) then lose my only one.

Well, that should seal it regardless of the above. I suppose I can look forward to a short but sweet career as a vanillager.

[AvatarVecna]

Are you tieing it up though? Isn't Jeen still on me? (Though as much as I've screwed up my record keeping this game, I could be wrong).

Ffs not again. I really need to read people's vote counts closer.

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Not that it matters, it seems. I'm comfortable with my vote where it is.

[gac3]

Day end. Please hold

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Votes:
Bat: 6 (AV, Val, Elenna, Jeen, grand Arbiter, flat)
Valmark: 4 (bat, Xum, xi, zelphas)
Zelphas: 1 (blade)

You all debate throughout the day and finally decide to go after Batcathat. There is an attack. Bat falls. The reaper rises. As the reaper comes for their soul though, bat gets up and walks away. The last thing you hear is the hiss of the reaper. "No. Come back here. Only real cats are supposed to have nine lives."

- - - Updated - - -

Night begins. It will end in 24 hours.

[Batcathat]

Well, that's part of my claim proven, at least. I don't supposed that changed anyone's mind on my wolfiness?

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Also, I think I got the most unnecessary feedback ever on Discord: "You have lost a life"

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I wonder if we should read anything into the fact that gac changed the Grim Reaper's line from red to grey?

[AvatarVecna]

Well, that's part of my claim proven, at least. I don't supposed that changed anyone's mind on my wolfiness?

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Also, I think I got the most unnecessary feedback ever on Discord: "You have lost a life"

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I wonder if we should read anything into the fact that gac changed the Grim Reaper's line from red to grey?

I don't regret my decision, if that's what you're asking. It was the better claim to test.

I'll admit to having ulterior motives. I'll even specify what they are before night ends.

[Valmark]

Ffs not again. I really need to read people's vote counts closer.

You see the irony? XD

(I think the term "irony" applies anyway)

I wonder if we should read anything into the fact that gac changed the Grim Reaper's line from red to grey?

Clearly, the Grim Reaper is above our petty (to it) squabbles.

[Batcathat]

I don't regret my decision, if that's what you're asking. It was the better claim to test.

I'll admit to having ulterior motives. I'll even specify what they are before night ends.

Sounds interesting. But no, what I was asking was mainly if a majority is planning on voting me again tomorrow, in which case Xum should just put me out of my misery. (Conveniently giving me some extra free time right before I'm supposed to start recruitment for my game, so it's not all bad. ).

[Valmark]

I'll admit to having ulterior motives. I'll even specify what they are before night ends.

I'd tell you to be careful about revealing stuff in the night, but uh... I think you're more aware about it than I am.

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Sounds interesting. But no, what I was asking was mainly if a majority is planning on voting me again tomorrow, in which case Xum should just put me out of my misery. (Conveniently giving me some extra free time right before I'm supposed to start recruitment for my game, so it's not all bad. ).

I didn't want to vote you until you became my only alternative, I sure don't want to vote you now.

I'm not sure proposing the vig shot on yourself is a good idea though. On one side I agree with the fact that it might waste Town's Day if many come in thinking of lynching you, but on the other... It is wasting a Vig-controlled kill on a Townie (assuming you are one).

The flip side to the second option is that a Vig-controlled kill is worst then a Town-controlled lynch (usually), so it would be the lesser of the two evils.

(Note: Xum definitely shouldn't weigh in on this. Even if the Romans can't take anything he says as truthful).

[AvatarVecna]

I've even promised a hint at my role. By the end of the night, anyway.

[Batcathat]

I didn't want to vote you until you became my only alternative, I sure don't want to vote you now.

I'm not sure proposing the vig shot on yourself is a good idea though. On one side I agree with the fact that it might waste Town's Day if many come in thinking of lynching you, but on the other... It is wasting a Vig-controlled kill on a Townie (assuming you are one).

The flip side to the second option is that a Vig-controlled kill is worst then a Town-controlled lynch (usually), so it would be the lesser of the two evils.

(Note: Xum definitely shouldn't weigh in on this. Even if the Romans can't take anything he says as truthful).

It's a weird feeling to see someone argue against someone killing me and finding them suspicious over it.

Not that you're entirely wrong, of course. Obviously a vig killing a townie isn't ideal, but if the alternative is leaving me as lynch bait (and possibly killing some other townie), it might be the better alternative.

[Xumtiil]

(Note: Xum definitely shouldn't weigh in on this. Even if the Romans can't take anything he says as truthful).

Because you told me not to do something, I'm going to do exactly that.

My target for tonight will be Gac. Find him very suspicious, refused to give a read on me, and kept posting after he was killed.

[AvatarVecna]

Because you told me not to do something, I'm going to do exactly that.

My target for tonight will be Gac. Find him very suspicious, refused to give a read on me, and kept posting after he was killed.

the best part is that I can't tell if you're kidding or not, due to how the last game ended. That's great, perfect answer.

[JeenLeen]

Day's almost over, and I haven't been online for the last couple pages.

Did Valmark claim? I'm trying to figure out why the wagons shifted, and I'm confused.

If AV's scum, wonder if she's trying to save Batcathat, but I haven't had time to read the last couple pages of stuff to know what's going on.

[AvatarVecna]

Day's almost over, and I haven't been online for the last couple pages.

Did Valmark claim? I'm trying to figure out why the wagons shifted, and I'm confused.

If AV's scum, wonder if she's trying to save Batcathat, but I haven't had time to read the last couple pages of stuff to know what's going on.

...save BCH by piling onto their wagon? What?

[JeenLeen]

Oh, Day did end already. I missed gac's end-of-day post.
@gac3: would you add a BOLD or SIZE=3 to your posts for day/night phase starting? Not to make narration more troublesome, but it'd definitely help me find the phase shifts.

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...save BCH by piling onto their wagon? What?

Sorry; from one post I read, I thought you were going after someone else, and didn't see your (final?) vote land on Batcathat.

[AvatarVecna]

Oh, Day did end already. I missed gac's end-of-day post.
@gac3: would you add a BOLD or SIZE=3 to your posts for day/night phase starting? Not to make narration more troublesome, but it'd definitely help me find the phase shifts.

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Sorry; from one post I read, I thought you were going after someone else, and didn't see your (final?) vote land on Batcathat.

It was quite an interesting EoD, wasn't it?

[Elenna]

Sounds interesting. But no, what I was asking was mainly if a majority is planning on voting me again tomorrow, in which case Xum should just put me out of my misery. (Conveniently giving me some extra free time right before I'm supposed to start recruitment for my game, so it's not all bad. ).

That’s my current plan if Xum doesn’t vig kill you, yes. Although I’ll probably try to look for other suspects first, for the sake of discussion.

(Note: Xum definitely shouldn't weigh in on this. Even if the Romans can't take anything he says as truthful).

FWIW I don’t see any powers that would help the wolves if they knew who the vig kill was going to be (except baner, of course, but even aside from your claim we’ve established that the baner is most likely either town or nonexistent). And there’s a chance that saying who the vig kill will be could help other townies who want to aim at someone who’s not going to just die and flip anyways.
But I could definitely be missing something, it’s Xum’s decision.

[Valmark]

Because you told me not to do something, I'm going to do exactly that.

My target for tonight will be Gac. Find him very suspicious, refused to give a read on me, and kept posting after he was killed.

Oh no they know now, what will we do?

...save BCH by piling onto their wagon? What?

Help a man once, he'll be safe for a day. Kill a man, he'll be safe for eternity.

That’s my current plan if Xum doesn’t vig kill you, yes. Although I’ll probably try to look for other suspects first, for the sake of discussion.

FWIW I don’t see any powers that would help the wolves if they knew who the vig kill was going to be (except baner, of course, but even aside from your claim we’ve established that the baner is most likely either town or nonexistent). And there’s a chance that saying who the vig kill will be could help other townies who want to aim at someone who’s not going to just die and flip anyways.
But I could definitely be missing something, it’s Xum’s decision.

It applies both ways I think though, if we assume the wolves have powers to target people with (I'm not sure there's a party composition that let's them have a completely passive power set. If there is, it'd be unlikely).

Mostly the same reason we don't talk about anything at night really.

[Elenna]

It applies both ways I think though, if we assume the wolves have powers to target people with (I'm not sure there's a party composition that let's them have a completely passive power set. If there is, it'd be unlikely).

Mostly the same reason we don't talk about anything at night really.

True, but my feeling is that town is a lot more likely to want to target within the pool of people Xum might be targeting, while wolves would usually prefer to target people who are generally townread (and therefore bad vig targets).

[JeenLeen]

Beyond Batcathat claiming (and proven) Hard to Kill, Xumtiil claiming vig, and Valmark claiming baner... any explicit claims I've missed?

Not asking folk to state stuff hinted or implied, but I'm skimming while busy at work and wanting to make sure I'm on top of things should I survive to Day.
I still need to reread and see how all the votes moved late Day... but I'll wait to expend that effort if I'm still alive.

[Elenna]

FWIW I don’t see any powers that would help the wolves if they knew who the vig kill was going to be (except baner, of course, but even aside from your claim we’ve established that the baner is most likely either town or nonexistent). And there’s a chance that saying who the vig kill will be could help other townies who want to aim at someone who’s not going to just die and flip anyways.
But I could definitely be missing something, it’s Xum’s decision.

Nevermind, yeah, I missed something and Xum shouldn’t claim his target.

[JeenLeen]

Nevermind, yeah, I missed something and Xum shouldn’t claim his target.

It's annoying when you think of a mechanical thing that'd be nice to ask, but you don't want to ask in case it's a niche case/unlikely interaction the wolves haven't thought of.

I feel that way after rereading the Roles today. Though it also made me just really hope at least one power isn't in play, ideally at all but especially not for the wolves.

[Xumtiil]

I feel that way after rereading the Roles today. Though it also made me just really hope at least one power isn't in play, ideally at all but especially not for the wolves.

Oh yeah. The one where the thing might happen, maybe. Very bad. I saw that one too.