Who will live, who will die?

[corydeburd]

The Oracle's reference to Xykon being scary is a statement that (OOTS567) Roy still would have died if he had faced him while standing on the ground instead of in the air ...

Re-reading this strip was interesting. In the second section, panel 8, the oracle says "and as for the elf..." referring to the deaths caused (in some way) by Belkar. This seems to imply that V will die. While the Oracle says he "wasn't buying" his own theories, all the people listed in more detail (Roy, Miko, Miko's Horse, then later the Oracle himself) were indeed dead. Whether Belkar can be said to have caused their deaths doesn't matter of course.

Of course, we don't get the full explanation. It could be "Belkar made V stay out in the sun too long causing them to get skin cancer 500 years later" or "V morally 'died' by selling their soul." But those would be much larger stretches than the previous explanations.

[hroþila]

Miko's horse wasn't dead though. In my opinion, something like "part of the elf died when they did X and it's somehow your fault" or something equally ridiculous would fit the progression of implausibility perfectly well.

[Metastachydium]

Yup. Windstriker merely got stuck on an Outer Plane for (probably quite) a while. That's nothing we haven't seen happening to V, in fact.

[JonahFalcon]

Redcloak has an appointment with MitD's stomach.

Spoiler

Show

MitD is programmed to eat Redcloak if he tries anything funny.

[corydeburd]

Yup. Windstriker merely got stuck on an Outer Plane for (probably quite) a while. That's nothing we haven't seen happening to V, in fact.

I think Windstriker will be unable to return to the mortal plane without a new summoner (does that even happen?), whereas it's not the case for V.

If V makes it to the end, I won't complain that the prophecy failed, but I think usually the Oracle's remarks have a better track record. Not just the green text ones, the regular speech bubbles are pretty accurate as well.

Edit: a number of the Oracle's prophecies / remarks actually have a tendency of coming true in multiple ways. e.g. "pair of family reunions" or Belkar-caused deaths. So it would be fitting if the remark about V had multiple elements of truth, too.

[Metastachydium]

Spoiler

Show

Redcloak has an appointment with MitD's stomach. MitD is programmed to eat Redcloak if he tries anything funny.

Swallow Whole is not an automatic death sentence, especially for a (properly equipped) high level character (with access to magic). The Gibbering Orb, for instance, is a CR 27 epic monster. Its "stomach" deals a mere 4d8+3d10 points of damage a round and roughly half of it will be effortlessly handled by a cheap magical trinket or simply casting Resist Energy.

I think Windstriker will be unable to return to the mortal plane without a new summoner (does that even happen?), whereas it's not the case for V.

Special mounts are not summoned but, rather, called. Further, as specific beings that reside on an Outer Plane, by RAW, they should be legitimate targets for Gate.

[corydeburd]

Special mounts are not summoned but, rather, called. Further, as specific beings that reside on an Outer Plane, by RAW, they should be legitimate targets for Gate.

For sure. And, similarly, Roy could be recalled with raise dead. So I'm thinking that's the rough bar for Oracle remarks. I'd argue Windstriker meets that bar (high-level spell to bring him back) whereas V does not (was just out for ~23 minutes and not even their body).

[hroþila]

For sure. And, similarly, Roy could be recalled with raise dead. So I'm thinking that's the rough bar for Oracle remarks. I'd argue Windstriker meets that bar (high-level spell to bring him back) whereas V does not (was just out for ~23 minutes and not even their body).

Windstriker doesn't meet the bar no matter how hard it is to bring him back because he's alive. That's the whole point of the Oracle putting forth increasingly convoluted and unconvincing arguments - the first one (Roy) was at least somewhat arguable and it only got more ridiculous from there. So V not even being stuck somewhere else is not a problem because the Oracle was making stuff up. That's the joke.

[Peelee]

Windstriker doesn't meet the bar no matter how hard it is to bring him back because he's alive. That's the whole point of the Oracle putting forth increasingly convoluted and unconvincing arguments - the first one (Roy) was at least somewhat arguable and it only got more ridiculous from there. So V not even being stuck somewhere else is not a problem because the Oracle was making stuff up. That's the joke.

Yeah.

Well, technically, the joke was more that Belkar was the one the Oracle would kill so all the other stuff the Oracle said was him trying to avoid his fate (which he knew wouldn't work, but hey, it's free to try). But that's a minor quibble, you're still hitting the nail on the head.

[corydeburd]

Windstriker doesn't meet the bar no matter how hard it is to bring him back because he's alive. That's the whole point of the Oracle putting forth increasingly convoluted and unconvincing arguments - the first one (Roy) was at least somewhat arguable and it only got more ridiculous from there. So V not even being stuck somewhere else is not a problem because the Oracle was making stuff up. That's the joke.

We'll have to see!

For my money, the ridiculous aspect was only the causality. Sure, Belkar had some role in how Miko died, but at that point everyone causes the death of everyone so the statement is meaningless. Similarly, if V dies, Belkar won't have to be particularly to blame.

But there wasn't much debating that Roy/Miko/Oracle (soon) were dead (and Windstriker's material condition changed). So for the purposes THIS thread (death only) I'd say the Oracle's remarks were pretty spot on!

[Kish]

Yeah.

Well, technically, the joke was more that Belkar was the one the Oracle would kill

And thus is Belkar's ultimate fate revealed.

[Peelee]

And thus is Belkar's ultimate fate revealed.

On the one hand, whoops. On the other, that's hilarious and I'm not going to change it.

The Oracle certainly does have means, motive, and opportunity, after all!

[The MunchKING]

Swallow Whole is not an automatic death sentence, especially for a (properly equipped) high level character (with access to magic). The Gibbering Orb, for instance, is a CR 27 epic monster. Its "stomach" deals a mere 4d8+3d10 points of damage a round and roughly half of it will be effortlessly handled by a cheap magical trinket or simply casting Resist Energy.

Also Suggestion lasts like a day, tops.

[SlashDash]

Miko's horse wasn't dead though. In my opinion, something like "part of the elf died when they did X and it's somehow your fault" or something equally ridiculous would fit the progression of implausibility perfectly well.

He went more and more absurd with his theories. So whatever he was going to say about V would be even more of a stretch. I'd easily guess that it would be something like trying to connect Belkar's action to V selling their soul to the IFCC but likely something even more absurd than that.

[SlashDash]

As for this thread's original purpose -

Belkar - 100% Dead. Yes, the author can find ways around the prophecy, but that's not it. This is pretty much a classic situation in a lot of stories. Belkar is an evil person who did so much bad stuff that there is no way for him to redeem himself. If the guy who just killed a gnome to get his cart gets to keep on going adventuring it will be absurd. Belkar dying is pretty much the only solution and an expected result. And it would hardly surprise me if Belkar's death (however it may be) would be analogous in some way to Kraggor.

Roy - 100% alive. It's Roy's story. He is the main character. The others are supporting. He'll save the day, get to listen to his dad telling him he is proud of him and continue doing good things. He has a girlfriend and all of that. They'll be together.

Elan & Haley - 100% alive. Elan gets a happy ending and it can't possibly be without Haley. I'd also say that most likely, unless the story ends with the party keeping adventuring, than they'll go back to help Ian overthrow Tarquin or maybe Haley ends up making the thieves guild a better place? (Or both at the same time?)

Durkon - 100% alive. He'll go back and help raise his kid. All he wanted was a chance to go back home and his exile is already cancelled.

V - 95% Alive. The 5% is only slightly off for a similar issue with Belkar. But V is a different story because her story was personal. We also saw them looking at their mate's picture, so very likely they'll end the story looking for some way of making amends to all the dragons and giving up adventuring and settling with their mate again. V giving up adventuring and stopping their quest for more power would be a fitting end.

Team Evil:

Xykon - 100% Dead. He is the main antagonist of the story. Anything less than final death for him is already absurd. Redcloak and the whole replaced Phylactery pretty much spells that.

Red Cloak 60% Dead. Redcloak could go either way, but I'm slightly leaning more towards dead. Part of it is again, the same issue with Belkar. He did so many awful things, it would be hard to just let him run around. Gobtopia is obviously going to be sticking around. The goblins do deserve equality. But Jirix seems like an established leader. Plus the whole part about Redcloak never meeting the Dark One makes me think that his ending will finally be of him being with his beloved deity.
He'll help the good guys, but likely to die right after.

Monster in the Dark - 100% alive obviously. He is the one we know hasn't done anything wrong and in fact helped the good guys several times. He'll probably end up with OChul.

[Rinazina]

It must be said that there is possibly an inevitable kill sequence: Xykon must die before RedClock.

(or: Xykon must go out of play permanently in a way that never allows him to return)

Because RedClock has his own phylactery and could destroy it if it were appropriate.

If, on the other hand, RedClock died before Xykon did, it would be quite bizarre for Xykon to regenerate where RedClock left his phylactery, but regardless of the weirdness, we'd have the BEBG that has to be defeated twice or more. Maybe it's boring enough that it doesn't happen?

But also true that if Xykon was destroyed in the 'normal' way and then regenerated in RedClock's pockets, we'd have a problem among Team Evil that maybe RedClock wouldn't want to have to deal with. What will he do then?

Stay tuned!

[KorvinStarmast]

It must be said that there is possibly an inevitable kill sequence: Xykon must die before RedClock.

You didn't do this just once, you did it multiple times. Why do you refer to the wearer of the Crimson Mantle - shortened to Red Cloak/Redcloak, which refers to a red piece of clothing - as RedClock, which refers to a red timepiece. Is there a clever play on words that I am not grasping?

Xykon must go out of play permanently in a way that never allows him to return

Of course. The whole fake phylactery sub-arc is all about setting that up.

[Rinazina]

You didn't do this just once, you did it multiple times. Why do you refer to the wearer of the Crimson Mantle - shortened to Red Cloak/Redcloak, which refers to a red piece of clothing - as RedClock, which refers to a red timepiece. Is there a clever play on words that I am not grasping?

no, OPS! it was a typo

Cloak/Clock, in my mind, they are pronounced in the same way, so my fingers wrote them in the same way. I only wonder how many other typos like this I' making right now... I've to write in English everyday... but not event deepl.com or grammar.ly can fix errors like this

I'll avoid this mistake in the future, not by learning the differences between Clock and Cloak, but by referring to that goblin bearing of the Crimson Mantle as Wrong-Eye.

Thanks for pointing it out, KorvinStarmast, and let's hope that Goblin death-chances is 120% so I can avoid making this mistake once again.

also if, I'm afraid, Xykon would call the next bearer of the crimson mantle RedCloak anyway, so has not to learn a new name.

Of course. The whole fake phylactery sub-arc is all about setting that up.

What are the chances of Xykon having one or more clones in temporal stasis, magic jar, contingency, and a combo that allows him to return alive immediately as soon as his phylactery is destroyed?

[PLD]

Nobody has mentioned Sabine?

I give her a 20% chance of living.

The Archfiends however I give 50% chance of surviving, defeated but not destroyed.

[KorvinStarmast]

no, OPS! it was a typo

No worries. Usually a typo is just one here and there, and that's why I thought there might be a play on words going on that I didn't catch. I used to type JRR Tolkien's name as JRR Tolkein with some frequency and not notice it.

What are the chances of Xykon having one or more clones in temporal stasis, magic jar, contingency, and a combo that allows him to return alive immediately as soon as his phylactery is destroyed?

In that special fortress of his up in that plane? Likely enough not to bet against it. No quataloos are wagered.

[Xihirli]

I used to type JRR Tolkien's name as JRR Tolkein with some frequency and not notice it.

That’s why I write his name as JR²T to be safe.

[Peelee]

That’s why I write his name as JR²T to be safe.

But that only works out if R=2, otherwise R² and 2R are discrete functions.

Besides, repition is the best teacher, so the ideal way to write it is Jolkien Rolkien Rolkien Tolkien.

[Ruck]

This reminds me of my claim that the "R.R." in "George R.R. Martin" stands for "Robble Robble."

Also, I'm reminded of the classic (read: very old) SSI RPG Phantasie and its mini-boss J.R. Trollkin.

[Xihirli]

But that only works out if R=2, otherwise R² and 2R are discrete functions.

Incorrect. In a function JRRT, no matter what value R is equal to it is expressed as R². You could only use 2R if R were 2 or 0.

Just like xx is x TIMES x, not x PLUS x.

[pearl jam]

Incorrect. In a function JRRT, no matter what value R is equal to it is expressed as R². You could only use 2R if R were 2 or 0.

Just like xx is x TIMES x, not x PLUS x.

I think Peelee's point is JRR is 2R, not R² because you have 2 R's, not R R's, unless R is 2.

[brian 333]

Who would have thought that an internet forum discussion could ever devolve into a discussion of pseudomath?

Besides, the correct expression is John + Ronald + Reuel + Tolkien. The names are additive, not multiplicative. ( Could you imagine John * Ronald? There must be millions of them. However, Reuel, as we know, is a decimal, which brings us back to dozens, and Tolkien, also a fraction, might result in JRR being a rational person... number.

In any case, the correct formula is J+R₁+R₂+ TOLKIEN.

[Crimsonmantle]

You didn't do this just once, you did it multiple times. Why do you refer to the wearer of the Crimson Mantle - shortened to Red Cloak/Redcloak, which refers to a red piece of clothing - as RedClock, which refers to a red timepiece. Is there a clever play on words that I am not grasping?
Of course. The whole fake phylactery sub-arc is all about setting that up.

Clock is also dated slang for face, so this was clearly a daltonism joke. (/Death of the Author.)

[Xihirli]

I still say JR²T because that’s what people actually called him.

[KorvinStarmast]

Clock is also dated slang for face, so this was clearly a daltonism joke. (/Death of the Author.)

But his face is green.

I still say JR²T because that’s what people actually called him.

Which people actually called him that? The Inklings?

[Fyraltari]

But his face is green.

Red-green is the most common form of daltonism (more commonly known as "colorblindness").