Mysterium Mafia

[bladescape]

Also I'm not going to lie.

I was tempted to move off book.

Then I remembered how he accidentally killed me on D1 last game =P

[Snowblaze]

Also I'm not going to lie.

I was tempted to move off book.

Then I remembered how he accidentally killed me on D1 last game =P

Who would you have voted instead?

[AvatarVecna]

Right. I have questions.

- gac, I did in fact mean the votes on 3SC.

- Apogee, what do you now think of your premise?

- bladescape, thoughts on Rogan?

- AV, why did you FoS Xihirli instead of actually voting her?

Also I counterclaim Seer.

(Feel free to wait until day phase to answer these if you prefer.)

I didn't realize how close we were to EoD.

[gac3]

Right. I have questions.

- gac, I did in fact mean the votes on 3SC.

Also I counterclaim Seer.

(Feel free to wait until day phase to answer these if you prefer.)

- That... Actually makes a lot more sense. I will get back to you on the answer though. I'll look more closely and see. Instinct though, it was more "I don't understand" than anything though since Book was the other wagon and died, that makes the votes inherently less suspicious as a whole I think.

Also crap, I need to catch up. We have two seer claims?

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Oh. I see. I got you. I'm hip. I'm game. I'm cool. Actually no. I'm still confused but I almost have a theory.

[bladescape]

Who would you have voted instead?

Was considering didn't come to a conclusion before I decided that I was going to be petty.

[AvatarVecna]

I think I wanna go ahead and claim Mason. Guess who my buddy is.

[3SecondCultist]

I don't understand the Seer and Mason claims. Are there different roles within Town?

[Xihirli]

I’ll claim Baner while we’re at it. Throw Devil in there somewhere as well.

[gac3]

I don't understand the Seer and Mason claims. Are there different roles within Town?

I explain later vanillager... Maybe... I'm only 35% sure I understand why we have decided to claim.

I'll claim Necromancer.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I don't understand the Seer and Mason claims. Are there different roles within Town?

I think it's all just for fun? But after your stunt day 1, you're absolutely Tanner.

[3SecondCultist]

I think it's all just for fun? But after your stunt day 1, you're absolutely Tanner.

Guilty as charged, cutie.

[AvatarVecna]

Clarifying, since it's getting late. I'm not sure how I feel about a game where (even more so than usual) town's power lies in their ability to analyze incomplete and possibly malicious information, but I very much know how to feel about somebody who sees that setup and wants me gone.

[gac3]

Clarifying, since it's getting late. I'm not sure how I feel about a game where (even more so than usual) town's power lies in their ability to analyze incomplete and possibly malicious information, but I very much know how to feel about somebody who sees that setup and wants me gone.

*Note, check who AV is talking about.*

Another reason I didn't vote Xi. I'm still town reading them and since the available visions are limited anyways, I'd rather have the players I trust most helping make sense of them than helping send them. Though my opinion on. Xi's self voting argument may change once we see these visions and I see how easy/hard they seem to be to analyze.

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Do you think the 3SC votes are wolfy?

Well not really? Not saying the people can't be wolves but four people voted that wagon and there was only one competing wagon. Since we know said competing wagon was a townie, I don't see any reason to assume this wagon was wolf motivated or anything. People on it could be wolves but I don't think the suddenness of the wagon or the votes themselves are wolf indicative.

[AvatarVecna]

*Note, check who AV is talking about.*

Another reason I didn't vote Xi. I'm still town reading them and since the available visions are limited anyways, I'd rather have the players I trust most helping make sense of them than helping send them. Though my opinion on. Xi's self voting argument may change once we see these visions and I see how easy/hard they seem to be to analyze.

It's not a matter of who you trust more. Regardless of whether a wolf or townie had gotten lynched, there'd be at least one person sending bad visions from the afterlife (Bat or Elenna, whichever is scumteaming). Xihirli's point was that, if we're going to lynch a townie anyway, we may as well lynch a townie who we think we could interpret messages from. It's not about "I trust AV more than others", it's about "I understand AV more than I understand others". Because Xi can't ask me what I mean by sending this vision or that vision, and in fact can't know for certain that I'm personally responsible for sending any vision. What can maybe help the interpretation process is "I know AV well enough that I think town!AV would've chosen to send this particular image for this particular purpose, and that's why I know I should lynch Snowblaze". But if our example six-image vision is anything to go by, I'm not sure I could trust myself to say "i know why Xi sent these pictures", even if I knew for a fact that Xi was 1) town and 2) the only person who sent pictures. And I would only know one of those for a fact. Not knowing which person sent which pictures makes trying to rig the picture-sending process an exercise in futility.

Additionally, Xihirli knowing that I might've chosen to send a picture doesn't necessarily help her with figuring out why I sent that picture, because she doesn't know what my other options were - and that's if she knows for a fact which images were even sent by me, which she couldn't.

The only real way we have of rigging the interpretation process in our favor is to have the people who are best at interpreting vague nonsense into cogent theory on the "living" side of the equation. No matter who is sending images, it's gonna be vague nonsense. What we need is somebody who is good at interpreting vague nonsense. That's me (to a slight degree), but honestly if I were picking one person who's demonstrated the ability to 4D chess their way into solving a puzzle despite having vague, sometimes contradictory, and even maliciously-designed information...it's Xihirli.

I do not trust that Xihirli wanted me off the board of interpreters. I do not trust that Xihirli tried to remove herself from the board of interpreters.

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but honestly if I were picking one person who's demonstrated the ability to 4D chess their way into solving a puzzle despite having vague, sometimes contradictory, and even maliciously-designed information...it's Xihirli.

Also Xihirli Wins, just because they were the only person on town's side that made us feel like they really appreciated the game by putting in consistent effort and thought into it. And for being right basically all the time, even about things they thought they were lying about or were amazing leaps of logic from what little information they had at the time.

This game was a mind****. Everybody had a power, and it flipped on its head when they died, but nobody was told that's what was happening, and nobody knew which player had died, only which rolename had died, but dying didn't mean you stopped participating in the game. Xihirli was getting berries and citrus fruits for scry results and figured it out despite the game's very premise was not only designed around denying town information, but actively misinforming them. And Xi figured it out.

[gac3]

It's not a matter of who you trust more. Regardless of whether a wolf or townie had gotten lynched, there'd be at least one person sending bad visions from the afterlife (Bat or Elenna, whichever is scumteaming). Xihirli's point was that, if we're going to lynch a townie anyway, we may as well lynch a townie who we think we could interpret messages from. It's not about "I trust AV more than others", it's about "I understand AV more than I understand others". Because Xi can't ask me what I mean by sending this vision or that vision, and in fact can't know for certain that I'm personally responsible for sending any vision. What can maybe help the interpretation process is "I know AV well enough that I think town!AV would've chosen to send this particular image for this particular purpose, and that's why I know I should lynch Snowblaze". But if our example six-image vision is anything to go by, I'm not sure I could trust myself to say "i know why Xi sent these pictures", even if I knew for a fact that Xi was 1) town and 2) the only person who sent pictures. And I would only know one of those for a fact. Not knowing which person sent which pictures makes trying to rig the picture-sending process an exercise in futility.

Additionally, Xihirli knowing that I might've chosen to send a picture doesn't necessarily help her with figuring out why I sent that picture, because she doesn't know what my other options were - and that's if she knows for a fact which images were even sent by me, which she couldn't.

The only real way we have of rigging the interpretation process in our favor is to have the people who are best at interpreting vague nonsense into cogent theory on the "living" side of the equation. No matter who is sending images, it's gonna be vague nonsense. What we need is somebody who is good at interpreting vague nonsense. That's me (to a slight degree), but honestly if I were picking one person who's demonstrated the ability to 4D chess their way into solving a puzzle despite having vague, sometimes contradictory, and even maliciously-designed information...it's Xihirli.

I do not trust that Xihirli wanted me off the board of interpreters. I do not trust that Xihirli tried to remove herself from the board of interpreters.

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This game was a mind****. Everybody had a power, and it flipped on its head when they died, but nobody was told that's what was happening, and nobody knew which player had died, only which rolename had died, but dying didn't mean you stopped participating in the game. Xihirli was getting berries and citrus fruits for scry results and figured it out despite the game's very premise was not only designed around denying town information, but actively misinforming them. And Xi figured it out.

No I get you. When I said trust though (at least in this instance) it wasn't about town or wolf as much as "trust them to help make sense of things". For instance town or not, despite being a good player, I didn't trust book to help with the visions on the living end, the way I do with a potentially town Xi.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I forgot about phase change... gimme 5

[AvatarVecna]

Also, "35%" mmmm I think that percentage should really be higher.

[gac3]

Also, "35%" mmmm I think that percentage should really be higher.

Assuming that was referencing me, I always under state my confidence percentages. I could see something happen and go "I'm 70% sure this happened"

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Over 50 means I'm more confident than doubtful.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

3rd August, 1922

I am pleased to say that we all seem to have seen images as the sun began to rise. Everyone seems to have seen the same scenes, now it is up to us to make sense of them..

In worse news, it seems that the Mafia continues to attack those they deem a threat. Rogan did not wake up this morning. Once more, we look to those with us to find the guilty.


CaoimhinTheCape

Rogan was Town.

Day 2 Begins! It will last until Friday, August 3rd, 10:00 PM EST (~48 hours from now)

[gac3]

Okay... Before I analyze these pictures to death:

Was the thing about tie votes just leftover?

Second to get a vote out there on someone less active until I come up with a real reason Apogee

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Ninja'd on the first thing.

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Also, for some reason I thought it was going to be 6 images.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Okay... Before I analyze these pictures to death:

Was the thing about tie votes just leftover?

---

Also, for some reason I thought it was going to be 6 images.

Haha, I copy/pasted from the end of Day 1 and left the tie votes thing in. That wasn't relevant.

Each group of ghosts (Town and Mafia) can send 0-3 images. So minimum of 0 images each morning, maximum of 6. I can not confirm how many came from either group.

[gac3]

Haha, I copy/pasted from the end of Day 1 and left the tie votes thing in. That wasn't relevant.

Each group of ghosts (Town and Mafia) can send 0-3 images. So minimum of 0 images each morning, maximum of 6. I can not confirm how many came from either group.

Ah! That makes sense.

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Okay. I need some big brains. Part of me is like "what if it's hint towards our names" and then the best I got was water for Kracken? If that's a farm house in the sand maybe farmer? Though that wouldn't help for people like me? How could a picture hint towards my name when it's just my initials? So maybe they relate to posts we've made? I'll try to look and see if that holds up.

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I'll probably check that later since I start work in a couple minutes.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Interesting. So we know that between 1-3 of these are decoys. A few themes that immediately spring to mind are vehicles (3) and the sky (3). Two also feature animals. One features what looks like a field (Bink), but that could easily be obfuscation. Any thoughts on these themes?

It feels more likely that town would send multiple visions, since there are multiple wolves to hint towards, and that wolves would want to focus visions on getting someone voted out unfairly... but then again, wolves would want to obfuscate and town might want to focus on the strongest available evidence. Hm.

[flat_footed]

AvatarVecna
flat_footed
bladescape
Xihirli
FarmerBink
3SecondCultist
Apogee1
gac3
Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze

Interesting that there are only 4 pictures. If I was sending messages, I would try to point at one player in particular with however many messages made sense. My initial reads line up pretty well with gac3, Farmer and Kraken are the two that spring to mind.

FarmerBink

[gac3]

Interesting. So we know that between 1-3 of these are decoys. A few themes that immediately spring to mind are vehicles (3) and the sky (3). Two also feature animals. One features what looks like a field (Bink), but that could easily be obfuscation. Any thoughts on these themes?

It feels more likely that town would send multiple visions, since there are multiple wolves to hint towards, and that wolves would want to focus visions on getting someone voted out unfairly... but then again, wolves would want to obfuscate and town might want to focus on the strongest available evidence. Hm.

You say that, but I'm still struggling to understand what town knows and how it could translate into these pictures.

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To clarify I meant what "dead town knows"

[Let'sGetKraken]

AvatarVecna
flat_footed
bladescape
Xihirli
FarmerBink
3SecondCultist
Apogee1
gac3
Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze

Interesting that there are only 4 pictures. If I was sending messages, I would try to point at one player in particular with however many messages made sense. My initial reads line up pretty well with gac3, Farmer and Kraken are the two that spring to mind.

FarmerBink

True! There is a strong water-themed vision. I own mysterium though and roughly 40% of the cards have water on them in some capacity, so there's going to be some inevitable collateral there. Won't deny that I should be on the list though!

Going to refrain from voting until a few others have had a chance to chime in. Forgot that flat_footed was here, there's a strong enough vehicle theme that I'm starting there until otherwise convinced.

Also, if anyone has characters in their sig, might be worth seeing if they match up well against any of the visions?

Edit: to Gac3 - Doesn't dead town know who the wolves are? I thought that was the whole point of the visions.

[bladescape]

Snowblaze

Why did you rand wolf?

Also AV, Xi is 95% town. Stop.

[AvatarVecna]

Snowblaze

Why did you rand wolf?

Also AV, Xi is 95% town. Stop.

Should've made me.

[bladescape]

Should've made me.

Wut.

Also I literally called out Rogan was gonna be the nightkill amusingly enough

[Snowblaze]

Snowblaze

Why did you rand wolf?

Also AV, Xi is 95% town. Stop.

...I didn't.

Also I may or may not have had a vague half-formed wolfread on Rogan that I was planning to talk about today, so... lolme, I guess?

Anyway. Reads. (This is before paying serious attention to the visions.)

awkward silence

Okay, I have no reads in which I have any confidence. I'll work on that. But first, visions!

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First image: flame, water, sky, bicycle, house, field, blue, yellow, burning house
Second image: balloon, sky, figure in black who kind of reminds me of a wizard, blue, red
Third image: river, fishing, carriage, bridge, white horse, figure pushing the carriage looks witchy, grey-green-yellow haze
Fourth image: lion, woman in white looking through telescope, airship, field, men below holding... life-ring (what do you call those things), oar and paper of some sort, yellow, brown

And we know that at least one image is real and one fake.

...great.

Yeah, these are about as subjective as I thought.

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Two fields makes Farmerbink the most obvious candidate. If the witches and wizards are an actual theme then I'm the one with a wizard for an avatar so... that might explain why bladescape wolfreads me?

Not really seeing how you get from "vehicles" to "flat_footed", Kraken. Please explain.

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Also I didn't mention that there are camels in the last image. On the unlikely chance camels are relevant to anything.

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Okay. I'm not getting anywhere with visions, so... normal solving,I guess.

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Time to ask even more questions!

flat, does "my initial reads line up pretty well with gac3" mean you wolfread them, and if so why?

gac, talk about your theory about the claims stuff.

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Also, flat, you need to bold your vote.

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I can find reasons to wolfread Farmerbink if I squint hard enough but then I have to wonder "am I just forcing a wolfread because the visions point to him" and that leads to constantly second-guessing myself.

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I'm just scrolling through the thread and barely reading anything, let alone parsing anything.

Going to take a break, get answers to my questions and turn things over in my head.