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Thread: Mysterium Mafia
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2022-08-07, 09:29 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
Last time I played with wolf apogee he bussed pretty much since D1. Obviously this is anecdotal and I don't have a HUGE amount of experience with Apogee, but I remember thinking the Gac vote as a prime bus position.
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2022-08-07, 09:29 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2013
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- Texas, again!
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
Oi. Well, at the end of that hour and a half I feel very much that you've "wifom"ed me. I'm at least as hopelessly confused as I was before.
-I have a moderate town read on Bladescape, largely because I've been swayed by the arguments made in his favor.
-I have a moderate town read on Apogee because of the arguments he made on his own behalf, and the way gac3/Xihi went down (though the degree of accuracy still smells of actual foreknowledge). (In addition, I'm grumpy over AV's read, so that may color Apogee town for me rn)
-I have a minor wolf read on AltarVecna, I think because I'm grumpy over his pairing of me with gac3. I don't know how much I trust my own read there.
And I've got basically nothing everywhere else, so vote tally time! (now with improved who-voted-in-what-order technology!)
3SecondCultist: Snowblaze (1), 3SecondCltist (5-self)
Apogee1: Bladescape (2), AltarVecna (3)
Bladescape: Apogee1 (4),
AltarVecna: FarmerBink (6),
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I'm not even really upset that 3Sec threw shade at me, though it makes me want to throw shade back...
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Fine. Given that I don't want to appear to be pairing with really anyone, and I'm still salty,AltarVecnaLast edited by Farmerbink; 2022-08-08 at 01:54 PM.
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2022-08-07, 09:32 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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- Australia
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
Also purely from threadstate we live in either:
1. Apogee is mafia
2. AV or Snowblaze have snowed me.
Because I hold that Kraken is just town. I hold Farmerbink is on my townish lean as well, and FF needs a partner. (I'm ignoring 3SC for now)"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2022-08-07, 09:33 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2013
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- Texas, again!
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
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2022-08-07, 09:34 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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- Australia
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
If that pocket image IS for me because Bink is wolf and I'm pocketed then I must say it is very apt.
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to be fair I had a strongish scumlean on Snow, until she went in on Gac.
Is it possible Snow hard-bussed a partner to get me to reverse my read?
Sure. She's done it before."Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2022-08-07, 09:35 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2013
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- Texas, again!
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
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2022-08-07, 09:36 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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- Australia
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2022-08-07, 10:21 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
Okay wait now this is just a lie lmao.
I double checked and d1 I had 2/11 people on my wolf list who were fellow wolves, 1 of who "I realized I was wrong on" overnight because I'd forgotten they were on my team earlier in the day
And d2 of the 16 players I tried to get killed, one was an outed wolf, one was the lost wolf I had no idea was on my team, two were actual distances (not busses, only one of those I actually wanted dead) and the other 12 were villagers so
Take this with a grain of salt cause like, you can tell from the numbers I'm throwing around here the games were rather different buttttt yeah blade is just spewing what he thinks he needs to say to get me killed.
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2022-08-07, 11:53 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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- Australia
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
Uh.
I'm not gonna lie, I wasn't even thinking about Anni.
Mostly because that game just assumes you're gonna bus anyway and has too many players to think clearly about.
Also I checked back and Apogee was bussed not bussing so I'm wrong there too.
Have to think about this.
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To clarify the game I was thinking of was Afterlife, when Xi and I won after Apogee was bussed D1.Last edited by bladescape; 2022-08-07 at 11:55 PM.
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2022-08-08, 12:48 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
Have a couple of hours before disappearing,
so...
virtual hugs
I'd recommend asking for a replacement over just letting yourself die, if Caoimhin can find anyone.
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I'm not overly convinced by Apogee's argument for wolf!bladescape. The association is pretty clear even without knowing your MU avatar (which ftr I vaguely half-remember from reading Champs last year) and AV is right in that it would be a pretty big coincidence for wolves to get the moon image straight after.
(Kraken, since you've played Mysterium before: how common are images featuring the moon?)
Plus I think there are some pretty good arguments for town!bladescape. I've made a few of them myself and I think I know what AV is talking about with their point two.
(Shut up, tinfoil voice.)I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2022-08-08, 01:03 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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- Australia
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2022-08-08, 01:05 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
I had Xihirli as second on my "most likely nightkills" list after myself, so I don't think it's that weird. No offence, but neither you nor AV had done that much solvy stuff up until D3 and you did both vote the counterwagon to the flipped wolf.
(Xihirli because she's consensus town, voted a wolf and is definitely a potential threat.)
Also we don't know that gac discussed nightkill options with wolfchat before dying. Which if they didn't could imply someone who hasn't played here enough to know how scary you/AV can be... which quite neatly fits the current POE. (Okay, maybe not Apogee to the same extent as 3SC and Farmerbink, but.)
And yes, I know there is the "one of you/AV is a wolf" world. If it's you I'm pretty thoroughly pocketed rn, and if it's AV... I have to actually try and read AV.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2022-08-08, 01:07 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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- Australia
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"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2022-08-08, 01:24 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
Farmerbink's reaction to pressure is giving me gut pings. I don't think he did similar last game. Will check that.
I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2022-08-08, 01:34 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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- Australia
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2022-08-08, 01:40 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2022-08-08, 01:44 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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- Australia
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2022-08-08, 01:50 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
Actually on rereading AV's analysis I'm kind of talking myself into a Farmerbink wolfread. It fits with how gac played the Kraken/Farmerbink thing. Going to reread D2 myself to check.
I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2022-08-08, 01:50 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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- Australia
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
Last edited by bladescape; 2022-08-08 at 05:47 PM.
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2022-08-08, 02:08 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
Speaking as part of the gac wagon: no, we did not get lucky. The images didn't particularly point to them, but who needs visions from beyond when you have good old-fashioned analysis?
And... I don't really get the next part. I can understand the reasoning for not wanting to vote Kraken (I think; should check context) but how does that relate to whether or not the images pointed to gac?
Also the inaccurate timeline thing is itself inaccurate, as I pointed out earlier.
Also also: being right is not necessarily towny. Being wrong is not necessarily wolfy. I don't think Apogee should be town purely for being right on gac and Xihirli, and wanting competing wagons isn't wolfy when gac was clearly screwed at that point so AV had no chance of actually saving them.
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blink
I was just about to ask you why you townread Farmerbink, so...
Eh. I guess I'll join the adventure since my vote isn't doing much on 3SC.Farmerbink.
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Though if people think the case is invalid/don't agree with AV's or my logic, please say so. I don't want this to become "AV, Snow and blade all said this and they're good at this game so they must be right" because then if we're wrong we're no better off than we were.Last edited by Snowblaze; 2022-08-08 at 05:57 PM.
I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2022-08-08, 02:15 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Apr 2011
- Location
- Australia
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2022-08-08, 02:16 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
narrows eyes
Farmerbink here: "Snow and flat are trustworthy for trying to get me killed"
Farmerbink in the present: "AV is suspicious for trying to get me killed".
Explain.
(Need to go back and see quoted thing to get context for the vote switch.)
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Okay, logic for the Kraken -> Apogee vote switch makes sense, surface-level at least.
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Right, probably won't be back until after my disappearance now. I'll try and check in sometime this evening to make a final decision on who I want dead.
aorn it's "one of Apogee/3SC/Farmerbink with a slight preference for the latter pending his responses to my questions/case-ish-thing".
If I don't check in, it's because I don't have a reliable internet signal in which case sorry, I hope getting gac killed is sufficient contribution to make up for it and good luck finding the remaining wolves.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2022-08-08, 07:10 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2013
- Location
- Canada
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
There is so much analysis going on right now and everyone is making some pretty compelling arguments. I have absolutely no idea what is conjecture at this point - there are at least three different narratives and they're all certainly prolific if nothing else.
I don't think there are that many moon cards - definitely not enough to send multiple per round unless deadtown/wolves were really lucky. I am actively avoiding checking the deck that I own because that seems way too much like metagaming.
The only person I think is hard cleared for town at this point is Snowblaze, since starting and perpetuating a bus on another wolf when there is zero heat on either of them seems like such a wildly terrible play with comparatively little upside so early. Even by WIFOM standards (amazing reference, btw) that seems terrible.
So I'm voting FarmerBink, Snow was right last time.
Edit: most people seem to be doing so, but I also think we should remove Cultist from the discussion here for IRL purposes. Once they drop we can discuss their role, or once they're replaced we can maybe analyze their voting, but for now in respect for the stuff IRL I think we should put a pause on that.Last edited by Let'sGetKraken; 2022-08-08 at 07:43 AM.
Loser of Total War: Rise of Kingdoms
as
The Astral Collective
Winner of Total War: Hanrui 3
as
The Four Courts of Hanrui/The Equinox League
Plausible Victor of Total War: Pricipia
as
The Chrysaorian Hegemony
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2022-08-08, 09:14 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2013
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- Texas, again!
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
I suppose that's fair. I've missed/misunderstood the analysis entirely, so I guess well played on that front. I'm still largely clueless, and trying to use the images because theoretically that's the info I've got.
Regarding the inaccurate timeline, I initially misread posts and got the AM/PM confused. So it's not as precisely about time and more about the description:Bink sees gac pushing Kraken and jumps on, but after reading through the thread, realizes there's not actually anybody else voting Kraken, whereas there's two people voting Bink. Bink initially votes somebody he thinks is a good counterwagon to himself, but then switches to the same wagon as gac (a wagon that gac has explicitly said he'll abandon once he has a reason to vote elsewhere), to provoke activity from Apogee1. Which means Bink also doesn't intend to keep his vote here, even though this otherwise looks like a vote to save himself?"
I voted Kraken because he was implicated by many of the images. I was the first to vote Kraken, making him at best a weird "jump on." There was no counter wagon on Kraken from which to switch to "the same wagon as gac (more in a sec). AV's take for "after reading through the thread" gives me a whopping 5 minutes to read, analyze, and change my vote. None of that happened. I had enough time to re-read the clarification post two above me and Xihi's take on "noise vs info" directly above (which was written while I typed my monstrosity- I didn't read Xihi before posting at all). That was enough for me to reconsider my initial "lots of images point to Kraken." And there was nowhere near enough time for me to even read the whole D2 thread, much less reassess and change my vote therein.
Further, at that time there were 4 total votes. One for Apogee (from gac), one for Snowblaze from Bladescape, and two for me. Unless 2 people (out of what, 12?) counts as a strong wagon, saying I joined gac on a wagon is at best a very strong choice of words. I was voting for the only other person that seemed fishy, mostly due to absence (and it was absolutely a bid to tie my votes). Further, as noted, both of us voted thinly. He changed his vote. I never did, and as of my most current reads, I'm pretty content the Apogee vote didn't do much.
Regarding now being suspicious of AV: he didn't "oh you guys are creepy" me. He put out like a 4-page dissertation on why me and gac are on a team. I know it's not true, and find his logic uncompelling. I can't really help it if you think his take makes sense, but I'm going to point out the things that don't make sense to me. And I'm probably just over-correcting on the nature of being "I know I'm not wolf, so you must be for accusing me!" I don't have anything really condemning on AV, but I don't like his take and I don't have anything really condemning on anyone, so lots of *shrugs* for me.
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I'm with you there. It looks pretty bad for me, but my kid has a gymnastics lesson in 30, so I'm probably just gonna die now.Last edited by Farmerbink; 2022-08-08 at 09:26 AM.
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2022-08-08, 09:32 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2017
Re: Mysterium Mafia
Sorry, wasn't on at all yesterday but I'm seeing 3SecondCultist was looking to drop and Ave offered to be a replacement. I gotta finish catching up but I'll probably make that official in a bit.
Avatar by AstralSeal
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2022-08-08, 09:37 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Nov 2013
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- Texas, again!
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
In the interest of defending myself, this portion of AV's timeline is 100% inaccurate. The referenced post :
This is made in reference to the following post (#127, which he assesses as "wolf play"):
The post flow is 12 hours after the edits for my previous post, in which I agreed with Xihi's point and changed my vote accordingly. In the edited post #106, I addressed those issues. There is no basis at all for him to rag me for thinking about it hours ago, when I posted about it hours ago.
His continuation:
So this part just makes no sense. In what world does Wolf!Apogee choose to not tie votes? Unless that play outs every wolf, there is still ample time to just wolf the 4 listed "supposedly confirmed town" in the ensuing nights. Like, AV has this grand double-agent thing lined up in which the only people who know conclusively what's going on all choose to off one of their own?
Also, I'm still voting Apogee at this point, because his most compelling post of self-defense is the #128 that I didn't see until the next day. At that time, it's clear gac is hosed, and the next highest wagon is 2? As I said then, my vote didn't matter, so I didn't bother to move it.Last edited by Farmerbink; 2022-08-08 at 09:38 AM.
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2022-08-08, 09:38 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Mysterium Mafia
Spoiler: FarmerBink ISONull.
Null.
Null.
95% of this post is Bink explaining why he's voting Kraken, but one line from Xihirli against doing so sends Bink's vote elsewhere. Admittedly, I was a bit wrong in my write-up, in that if town!Bink was convinced by what Xi said here, the later explanation for the vote move is legitimate. But it's hard to not look at it and think that Bink was trying to go for the easy counterwagon to his own wagon, only to realize Kraken wasn't really a wagon at all, gac was just making noise without voting. So he joins gac in poking Apogee until Apogee appears.
Separately, I didn't realize this when doing my write-up before, because that was purely focused on D2, but it's NAGL that Bink's first post with some real meat to dig into is on D2. His whole day 1 is nothing but roleplay and a typical early-D1 jokevote.
This is one of those posts that really baffled me. Apogee is not and was not a very active player.
Spoiler: Apogee D1 ISO
That's it. 3 posts, the most recent of which was a full two days before Bink made this post. Apogee had three posts in the first 49, and then fell off the face of the earth. And 3/49 posts is still under-average given the game size. This is Bink's second game to the best of my knowledge, and Apogee wasn't in the first one. Where is this expectation of activity coming from? Because I'm not seeing an easy explanation.
Or rather, I'm not seeing an easy explanation besides "they're both in wolf chat together, where Apogee is far more active".
Initially, I thought this was pure wolf theatre. At this point, though, it does appear that Bink might've thinking about this when he changed voted in the first place. I still think it's weird how Bink's vote happened to first go on a wagon with a lot of verbal support, only to like immediately switch to a wagon that actually had votes, so that Bink's own wagon was no longer the only one at two votes. The reasons given for the vote are sensible enough, but the way the votes are moving looks like pure self-preservation, and that's the core of wagonomics: looking past what people are saying, and looking at what they're doing.
I will fully admit it's possible that I read too much into this, because I was doing the gac ISO. But also, like...this is basically the one concrete thing gac did D2.
Spoiler: Vision ShadeThrows doubt on the information dead townies know, even though it's clearly stated what they know. This is gac undermining the validity of the picture analysis.
gac simultaneously undermines it, while also trying to convince snow that if the pictures are meaningful, then clearly Kraken is as suspicious as bink is, if not more so! That could be gac shielding buddy!Bink, or could be gac shielding town!Bink to make Bink look like a buddy, but given the rest of gac's ISO, it doesn't look like he was playing that tricky of a wolf game to me.
Shades the visions.
Has decided that shading the visions is the better route to keeping Bink from getting lynched, even if it means he doesn't have a good counter-suggestion for who to lynch.
gac latches onto Xihirli's idea about who is likely to send more images. Anything to shade the visions.
FarmerBink's comment lines up perfectly with some of gac's comments. And like...
...let's toss out everything I think about Bink and Apogee. Just, right in the dumpster. gac spent the entirety of D2 trying to convince people not to choose wagons based on the visions. Scum!gac was not doing this because he was afraid village might mislynch somebody. Scum!gac saw that the visions clearly implicated a scumbuddy, and moved to shade the visions to minimize the chance of said scumbuddy getting caught. gac's argument to lynch Kraken was basically purely picture based, and he abandoned his own 'suspect' in favor of taking a dump on the idea that deadchat could possibly help at all. It took a correction from Cao for him to stop pretending that dead chat didn't know who the wolves are.
Who exactly is all of this shade protecting? Where is the scumbuddy gac died to protect? Because there's only two people heavily implicated by that first set of images: Kraken, and Bink. gac was pushing kraken's wagon, and was the primary person doing so, so that's probably not the scumbuddy. Meanwhile, gac losing his mind over people trusting the visions happened after Bink got two votes.
If Bink is not the beneficiary of gac's performance, then who is?
Oh boy, time for a really meaty Bink post. I'm gonna have to break this one down:
*checks Bink's location*
Yeah, AC repairs check out. I, too, live in Hell.
Simply put, your logic doesn't make an awful lot of sense, AV. How can the same 3/1 image spread that incriminates or defends kraken not implicate me in the same manner? We established that the spread was likely 3 mafia for 1 town. So many images of aquatic or vaguely agricultural themes should ease suspicion, not heighten it. Thus, I changed my vote off Kraken. It simply isn't consistent with the developing thoughts about the images.
2) The first set of images contains two and a half images that kind of imply water (a sand house being blown away with the sky above representing water, a carriage going over a bridge which is over a river, and a sailing ship). Meanwhile, it contains one image that implies fields (the ground beneath the sand house could be construed as sand or fields of grain). The image of a hot air balloon with no ground in sight does not imply Farmer. The image of a barren desert does not imply Farmer. The river image has plants, but they are pretty obviously wild grass, not tilled fields, or even a garden of any kind; they do not imply Farmer. There is one (1) image in the first set that points to you, so the 3/1 image theory casts suspicion on you far more than on Kraken.
It also isn't an accurate timeline. You mentioned that I changed my vote "when no one else was voting kraken." This is technically true only because no one else was voting at all.
Spoiler: D2 votes
We started with 12 players. One died D1. One died N1. 10 were still alive. 5 of the 10 living players voted before you did. Fully half the living players voting before you did. The wagons were as follows:
Apogee1 (1): gac3
FarmerBink (2): flat_footed, Snowblaze
flat_footed (1): Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze (1): bladescape
That is the situation where you voted. If I look at the words coming out of your mouth, there is a plausibly-townie explanation for your vote. But I cannot stress enough that, if one just looks at how the votes are moving (which is normally a good way to catch wolves - don't listen to what people say, just look at how they act), it really really looks like you voted on Kraken initially because you thought they were an easy mislynch, only to notice 1) you yourself were the lead wagon, and 2) nobody else was voting Kraken the way you expected based on thread-discussion. So you found any reason to switch off Kraken, and switched to Apogee to give yourself some breathing room.
The short answer is his commentary is hard to argue with. In particular, his take that gac3 is wolf and Xihi is towny seems all-but prescient, and simultaneous with a vote on the dead mafia that never shook and may have been condemning (with an odd squint at the last few "non-vote" posts, at least).
2) After looking through gac's ISO at all the shade he was casting on the dead townies, and all the "no real arguments" he was putting forth to lynch anybody except Kraken (which contradicted the shade he was casting), it's not really surprising that more than half the living players ended up voting gac3. Even if Apogee is town, he does not get credit for seeing something that basically everybody else saw.
3) That answer has nothing to do with my question.
In contrast, AV votes LetsGetKraken in an explicit bid to get a dueling wagon with a now confirmed mafia, and spends a lot of effort putting together some dubious "pairing" between gac3 and myself. ((not a vote, just explicitly wolf))
It's because there's nothing to catch. I was falling behind on forum games for about a solid week for IRL reasons, and when I finally got around to putting in effort for this one, I immediately see what looks to me to be two really obvious wolves.
A bit more to the point: this post just reads like OMGUS (literally "Oh My God You Suck"). "You suspect me? Well I know you're wrong, so clearly the actually suspicious person here is you". It's the kind of accusation you see often from wolves, who want to say that accusations against them are wrong, but don't have a real solid argument for why the other person is suspicious, so they just fake outrage at being accused in the first place.
Two things for FarmerBink.
Spoiler: Thing 1You claim that you stopped voting for Kraken because of what Xihirli pointed out about pictures. Fair enough. You claim you switched to Apogee to provoke activity. Fair enough. But then Apogee showed up and voted gac. And later (today), you claim that Apogee made really good arguments.
So why didn't you move your vote off Apogee? It was only on him to provoke activity in the first place, and I would say that activity was well and truly provoked. You were certainly still around at that point, plenty of time til EoD. Why did you leave your vote on him?
Spoiler: Thing 2I want to be clear on the timeline:
This is all of Apogee's contributions to the thread. This is what Farmerbink saw and thought Apogee should be posting more. And when questioned on why he expected more activity:
1) "his commentary is hard to argue with". Apogee had basically no commentary - the only thing that could be construed as such was his explanations for voting 3SC, and while they're not reasons to scumread Apogee, they're hardly reasons to townread him, or to expect lots of activity from him.
2) "his take that gac3 is wolf and Xihi is towny seems all-but prescient, and simultaneous with a vote on the dead mafia that never shook and may have been condemning". Apogee had not said either of those things by the time you made your "Apogee is awfully quiet" post. This has nothing to do with your expectation of Apogee's participation. This is you ascribing Apogee's later activity as the motive behind your questioning his lack of activity earlier in the thread. You cannot claim that stuff Apogee did in post 119 or later is the reason for your expectation of more Apogee activity in post 117.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
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2022-08-08, 09:46 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
Thing 1: inactivity, primarily. When I saw the state at like 2:40 server time on D2, things were settled. The vote made no difference and changing it would have made no difference.
I'll look at the rest when/if I have time. :-\
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2022-08-08, 10:04 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
It's because I know Apogee is more experienced than you are. Let me walk you through it:
1) Apogee is gone most of the day.
2) Apogee comes back and see gac making a clown of himself shading the dead townies, to the point that even the narrator was calling gac out about it.
3) Apogee sees that blade and AV (both players who know Apogee is relatively skilled) are in the game.
4) Apogee sees the argument Xihirli has made against basing reads purely on the images.
5) The current vote is gac 3/Kraken 2. If Apogee jumps on kraken's wagon, the tie rules indicate that gac would still get lynched, because he reached three votes first. So even if Apogee joins kraken's wagon, gac is only safe if somebody else also votes kraken, and nobody else votes gac.
At this point, in a world where Apogee is scum, he has to ask himself: how likely is it for Kraken to get more votes? How likely is it for gac to get more votes? And both of those questions feel like they have obvious answers. I cannot stress enough how awful gac's D2 looks. He got six votes out of ten by the time the day ended. And with Snowblaze, bladescape, and Xihirli all kinda vocally against the Kraken wagon at this point...who else would possibly jump on the Kraken wagon? Apogee sees the writing on the wall. He sees exactly what's gonna happen if he votes Kraken to try and save gac:
6a) Apogee votes Kraken, bladescape votes gac. The wagons look like this:
Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
FarmerBink (1): flatfooted
Let'sGetKraken (3): 3SecondCultist, gac3, Apogee1
gac3 (4): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, bladescape
7a) A third scumbuddy (let's say flat_footed) switches to Kraken. Wagons look like this:
Apogee1 (1): FarmerBink
Let'sGetKraken (4): 3SecondCultist, gac3, Apogee1, flat_footed
gac3 (4): Snowblaze, Xihirli, Let'sGetKraken, bladescape, (AV?)
8a) gac reached 4 votes first, so gac gets lynched. gac flips scum, and now the last two people to join kraken's wagon (the two scumbuddies) are going to be under a lot of attention.
If Apogee votes gac, the only way to avoid every scumbuddy getting caught trying to save gac is hoping that either AV or Farmerbink switches to voting Kraken, and that the other one doesn't vote gac. If that happens, Kraken swings instead of gac, and no scumbuddies get caught. If literally anything else happens, every scumbuddy gets caught trying to save gac.
So here's what Apogee does instead.
6b) Apogee throws gac under the bus. And that's exactly what he did.
"I'm sorry, but you brought this on yourself. I'm not going to get caught trying to bail out your sinking ship."
...
Additionally, while this is really the kind of thing you learn with experience, gac's response is like half the reason I suspect Apogee:
This...this isn't really how a wolf reacts to criticism. "Are you sure I can't convince you to reconsider?" What a ****in load. This is not "scum!gac sees town!Apogee put another nail in his coffin and starts squirming trying to make any argument to save himself". This is, or at least really really looks to me like scum!gac trying to distance with Apogee, so that gac's death can at least give Apogee some townie points. This is gac reacting to a scumbuddy bussing him, after they discussed in wolf chat that this is the only way forward.Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2022-08-08 at 10:04 AM.
Currently Recruiting WW/Mafia: Logic's Deathloop Mafia and Book Wombat's A Small Wager - A Practical Guide To Evil
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2022-08-08, 01:41 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Mysterium Mafia
This is my second game of mafia in this setting. I hardly know specific players MOs.
I mean, that's super condescending, frankly. If we're in wolf chat together, where he is super active, it would be the dumbest ass thing in the entire world to call him out for inactivity in the main thread. In addition, in my only other game one of the major themes was "being quiet is a good strat for wolves." At least, that was my takeaway.
You're absolutely high if you think Wolf!me is going to obviously, gratuitously, deliberately call out Wolf!Apogee for inactivity in the main thread. Just bananas off the wall insane.
Is it really that weird to pursue an apparently reasonable combination of self-preservation and voting for the current "he's not saying anything" guy? Felt like 2-for-1 to me. Still does.
FarmerBink's comment lines up perfectly with some of gac's comments. And like...
PLEEEEAASE tell me where I pushed a Kraken wagon? I voted him for all of 5 minutes, immediately jumped off because I realized the wagon was based on a likely-faulty misread of the cards and never threw any shade ever again.
Please, tell me more about how I'm pushing a Kraken wagon. You're one of the established, regular players, and this is the analysis?
-wait, I missed an entire word there. That non-capital G had me shook.
Regardless, literally the same logic that makes Kraken a poor choice based on images applies to me as well. Unless you've got some background knowledge on the two of us that you've deliberately chosen to not share, I have a really hard time taking your hard shade on me as justifiable.
Dude, it doesn't "read like OMGUS," I literally put it out there. I'm 99% sure my suspicion of you is heavily covered by the effort I'm spending defending myself. I've said as much. Like 4 times. Whether your take is that it's wolfy or not strikes me as irrelevant at this point.
I answered Thing 1 above.
Spoiler: Thing2Dude. There's like 50 hours between your first paragraph and second (which is numbered '1'). I was prodding him early Day 2 because he had posted like 3 times by then. I didn't prod after that, because he posted quite a bit, including a damning indictment of a now-confirmed wolf. I didn't change my vote after that because it would have been entirely for show to do so.
1) The "his commentary is hard to argue with" is post 180. The commentary referenced is posts 121, 123, 128.
2) What are you even trying to say? Why would I expect more activity when he's being active? Obviously, Apogee hadn't said those things when I prodded him for not saying anything. This is me answering Snowblaze's repeated question that I overlooked the first time in real time, with real time perspectives. I didn't "expect more activity." I was prodding the (mostly) inactive.
So your assessment is that this is 100% wolf play. I guess that makes some plausible sense, but it still seems odd at best. Apogee was the 4th vote on gac3, when there was a wagon of 2 he could have tied. That feels like a really strong push from Wolf!Apogee to send a scumbuddy into no man's land when there still seems to be a reasonable play elsewhere. It turned into gac3 is definitely dead, in part because of that vote.
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I think I see what you mean by most of that, actually. I'm not sure I agree precisely, but I see the logic at least. Honestly, I was taken a bit by surprise at how fast a 2-vote lead of me turned into a massive gac wagon. I still don't see what everyone else saw that condemned him, but I guess it worked.
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Ah yes, my favorite update. The one where I die.
Back to the present, having long-since hashed out what already happened, thenewcurrent vote tally:
3SecondCultist:Snowblaze (1), 3SecondCltist (5-self)
Apogee1:Bladescape (2), AltarVecna (3)
Bladescape: Apogee1 (4),
AltarVecna: FarmerBink (6),
FarmerBink: Bladescape (7), Snowblaze (8), LetsGetKraken (9)
This is 7 of... 8? current votes? With almost nothing at all from Flat_Footed in like 2 days.
The good news is that town won't lose much with me. I have basically no useful hunches. I still don't want to just shuffle the mortal coil with nothing to come of it. I follow much of your logic, AV, but I don't see any reason that the Apogee vote on gac isn't equally as plausible for town.
The most suspicious part of it to me is just how accurate he was with regard to gac3/Xihi. And that's not easy to fabricate, but it sure is easy for the wolves to capitalize on.
That leaves me feeling generally towny on Snowblaze, and a whole lot of ????? for everyone else. Let's assume your read is accurate (except that I'm town, so someone else has to be the scum buddy (obviously )). I guess that leaves Flat_Footed?
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That's not a useful thing to leave in bold letters, so:
3SecondCultist:Snowblaze (1), 3SecondCltist (5-self)
Apogee1:Bladescape (2), AltarVecna (3)
Bladescape: Apogee1 (4),
AltarVecna:FarmerBink (6),
FarmerBink: Bladescape (7), Snowblaze (8), LetsGetKraken (9)
Flat_Footed: FarmerBink (10)Last edited by Farmerbink; 2022-08-08 at 01:53 PM.