Calculation help: Paladin + GWM

[PhoenixPhyre]

Simple question:

Are the following calculations correct (level 11+, both with a +5 modifier and a regular greatsword, 65% pre-GWM hit rate, both with great weapon fighting style, not smiting):

Paladin without GWM/power attack: 65% hit, 5% crit. 0.65*(2d6 + 5 + 1.33 + d8) + 0.05*(4d6 + 2d8 + 5 +1.33) = 13.056 per attack (26.112 per turn).

Paladin with GWM/power attack: 40% hit, 5% crit. 0.4*(2d6 + 10 + 5 + 1.33 + d8) + 0.05*(4d6 + 2d8 + 10+ 5 + 1.33) = 13.1 per attack (26.2 per turn).

I think they're correct, but just double checking. For reference, I have that a champion fighter, action surging once per 9 rounds wielding a greatsword (same modifiers at that point) has a roughly 10 DPR difference between GWM on and GWM off (under the same accuracy assumptions, other than the champion getting his improved critical benefits). I guess I'd just not realized how much worse GWM (the -5/+10) is for paladins than for fighters.

It makes sense, because paladins get much more of their damage (especially once factoring smites) from hitting and so much less from attacking a lot. So that accuracy penalty really eats their lunch in a way it doesn't for the fighter. Hence why paladins want PAM more than GWM as a priority. Which is something I've still yet to simulate.

[Xihirli]

What level is this where the Paladin is getting +5 strength modifier AND a feat?
I think the calculation is missing that your chance to-hit is also 5% lower and you deal one less damage from the strength modifier on a hit. Feats aren't free.

[Angelalex242]

You could presume the Paladin is using a Belt of Hill Giant Strength in both cases. At least he would be for me, because Charisma is where I put ASIs.

Regardless, yes, the Paladin just needs to make contact, and let his smiting do most of the work

My paladins are usually sword and board, as I'm optimizing for defense, and a low accuracy +10 to damage doesn't meaningfully do me any good.

[PhoenixPhyre]

What level is this where the Paladin is getting +5 strength modifier AND a feat?
I think the calculation is missing that your chance to-hit is also 5% lower and you deal one less damage from the strength modifier on a hit. Feats aren't free.

Level 11+, as noted in the parenthetical in the OP. If we want to be specific, level 12+. Plenty of time to have maxed the ability score AND have a feat. Or variant human. Or Tasha's Custom Lineage.

Yes, before level 11 GWM makes more of a (positive) difference. The thing that was surprising was that the two converged to within the error bars at level 11+.

[Keravath]

The interesting thing is how well either sword and board or PAM with a spear or quarterstaff and the dueling fighting style compare to either of those cases.

Using the same calculation format as the OP:

Paladin longsword+shield: 65% hit, 5% crit. 0.65*(d8 + 5 + 2 + d8) + 0.05*(2d8 + 2d8 + 5 +2) = 11.65 / attack = 23.3 / turn

Paladin spear/quarterstaff+shield w PAM: 65% hit, 5% crit. 0.65*(d6 + 5 + 2 + d8) + 0.05*(2d6 + 2d8 + 5 +2) = 10.9 / attack = 21.8 + 10.15 = 31.95

Bonus action from PAM = (0.65*(d4 + 5 + 2 + d8) + 0.05*(2d4 + 2d8 + 5 +2)) = 10.15

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However, you need to still factor in the bonus action attack from GWM which occurs on a crit or a kill. If we assign a 33% probability (which is one attack action in 3 resulting in a crit or kill on either attack) then the GWM options add 1/3 the damage of one attack for totals of:

Paladin without GWM/power attack: 65% hit, 5% crit. 0.65*(2d6 + 5 + 1.33 + d8) + 0.05*(4d6 + 2d8 + 5 +1.33) = 13.056 per attack (26.112 per turn) + 4.351/turn = 30.46/turn
Paladin with GWM/power attack: 40% hit, 5% crit. 0.4*(2d6 + 10 + 5 + 1.33 + d8) + 0.05*(4d6 + 2d8 + 10+ 5 + 1.33) = 13.1 per attack (26.2 per turn). + 4.26/turn = 30.57/turn

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The bottom line is that a paladin with GWM and a two handed sword at level 11+ using power attack or not and a paladin using a spear or quarterstaff with a shield and dueling will all do pretty much the same damage. However, the PAM paladin will have at least 2 AC higher and possibly more with a magical shield. PAM will also give more reliable opportunities for the paladin to smite.

P.S. Before level 11 - the balance is still pretty much the same. IDS is affecting both attacks equally - the big change is the assumption of the 0.65 and 0.4 coefficients. If targets are easier to hit then the power attack option becomes better. The reason the power attack option can become better in tier 3+ is because the AC of opponents does not keep scaling up and magic weapons become more common adding to the to hit roll.

The 0.65 coefficient is assuming you need to roll 8+ to hit. At level 11 with +5 stat and +4 proficiency this is +9 to hit and represents an AC of 17. At higher ACs the non-GWM option will pull ahead while at lower ACs the GWM option will be slightly better.

[Gignere]

GWM scales really well with magic +x weapons, Bless and/or advantage though. If your Paladin (vengeance) can consistently get advantage GWM will blow a regular great sword Paladin out of the water.

[stoutstien]

GWM scales really well with magic +x weapons, Bless and/or advantage though. If your Paladin (vengeance) can consistently get advantage GWM will blow a regular great sword Paladin out of the water.

Let's see if that's true. A vengeance paladin can generate advantage against one target per short rest at the cost of a bonus action so we can see how many rounds it would it take to break even.

Using the same criteria for hit, GWM ~4.25 damage per attack vs 16 AC and adds .75 per +1 you stack on with magical weapons or other attack/damage bonuses. The PaM + duelist combo without advantage is worth ~6.75 and adds ~1.25 per +1/+1. So per attack action the Difference is less than 2 damage.

In other words GWM doesn't blow away other options for pally even if you use vengeance. magical weapons help PaM + duelist almost as much as GWM and it saves you a feat.

GWM is severely overrated for paladins.

[Gignere]

Let's see if that's true. A vengeance paladin can generate advantage against one target per short rest at the cost of a bonus action so we can see how many rounds it would it take to break even.

Using the same criteria for hit, GWM ~4.25 damage per attack vs 16 AC and adds .75 per +1 you stack on with magical weapons or other attack/damage bonuses. The PaM + duelist combo without advantage is worth ~6.75 and adds ~1.25 per +1/+1. So per attack action the Difference is less than 2 damage.

In other words GWM doesn't blow away other options for pally even if you use vengeance. magical weapons help PaM + duelist almost as much as GWM and it saves you a feat.

GWM is severely overrated for paladins.

How does PAM save you a feat? I was comparing a regular greatsword Paladin without feat to GWM. Which was the original premise of the OP.

I’m not comparing to PAM, PAM is a great feat for a Paladin no objections from me.

[stoutstien]

How does PAM save you a feat? I was comparing a regular greatsword Paladin without feat to GWM. Which was the original premise of the OP.

I’m not comparing to PAM, PAM is a great feat for a Paladin no objections from me.

Because pallys like attack volume and PaM is cheap in that regard. I could just say 2wf with 2 Short swords is better than Great sword if the argument is no feat vs feat. With same accuracy that investment free attack is worth over half of the total gain of GWM/GWF but since we are talking about values less than ~5 who cares. If anything it makes GWF is more silly.
So the best case scenario is for the GWM pally is they get adv and crit and still that adds only ~15 damage. At the cost of feat that's...not great. Heck going this route piercing might win over GWM thanks to it's Superior Wording allowing it to apply to smites. I would put money on it actually over the life time of the feats that it leaves GWM in the dust in all categories. (DPR, RED, effective kill rate, mitigation, and flexibility.)

[Corran]

Paladin without GWM/power attack: 65% hit, 5% crit. 0.65*(2d6 + 5 + 1.33 + d8) + 0.05*(4d6 + 2d8 + 5 +1.33) = 13.056 per attack (26.112 per turn).

Seems correct to me (had a little trouble figuring out why 1.33 is not doubled). Your calculations assume a 70% hit chance (including crits).

I guess I'd just not realized how much worse GWM (the -5/+10) is for paladins than for fighters.

Yep. Imroved divine smite does not play well with GWM, while extra attacks can. Another reason is action economy. Paladins have more non attack options than fighters during combat, which takes even more value away from GWM.

One benefit the paladin gets is that with both smite and GWM in the picture, their damage output can be very swingy. This is generally a bad thing, unless you are losing. Then it's a good thing. (Plenty of room for error though for the player here.)

Another benefit the paly has is that they can buff their hit chance and thus imrpove the pay off of GWM. It's not enough though to outweight their aforementioned shortcomings (mainly that of action economy), with the possible exception of vengeance paladins who get more accuracy boosters (bless, VoE) and more attacks (haste, SoV/ sentinel, and most likely PAM) while suffering a little less in their action economy (bonus action CD, lack of any oath defining action spells that other oaths may have and that dont help with attacking).

Dont get too hung up on averages though when it comes to GWM. To say it more accurately, if you know or can estimate accurately enough the AC of the enemies you are facing, then expect to get on average more value out of GWM than what the average calculation tells you. By which I mean, dont think of GWM just as a boost to your average damage, think of it also as a tool you can use to destroy enemies whose AC (or hp) is on the lower side. The calculation can easily be expanded accross a range of level appropriate AC's (on which you can place weights of your liking -equal weights unless you have a different idea that you think approximates your campaign better) to incude the small added numerical value that GWM will have due to profiting in the lower extreme more than it's being hindered in the upper extreme of AC values (assuming no or very small error on the human side of things). But even this will miss the value of the situational benefit against low AC's. Having the ability to spike your damage (even conditionaly) is worth a bit, and that bit is not showing in either your calculation or the one I suggested.

Just to be clear though, I dont think GWM is great on paladins (save on vengeance ones, I kind of like it for them, especially given their talent to focus something down).

[LudicSavant]

I guess I'd just not realized how much worse GWM (the -5/+10) is for paladins than for fighters.

The more per-attack damage you have, the worse a deal GWM is.

You’ll see a similar effect for builds that have a significant source of bonus damage. Or just about anyone who grabs a Flametongue or gets buffed with Holy Weapon or something.

GWM is best suited for characters with low damage-per-hit but high accuracy+number of attacks.