The Tarot Club

[Rogan]

So, the first part is a copy of the ISO I already did, with marked updates.

Spoiler: 3 Sec ISO

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Okay first of all, this thread is going to explode. We'll see how well I keep up on a phone (on vacation at a cottage starting today until Monday at the earliest, so apologies in advance if I'm quiet by comparison to this crowd).

I was tempted to self-vote again, but I'll jump on the narrator wagon until I can be swayed one way or the other. BookWombat.

Edit: Also, how are people doing the 'Updated' tags in their posts without editing them? Are they just reposting them with that written out in forum code? Or am I missing something?

Starting with a claim to RL. Not gonna doubt this.
The Book vote at this time is interesting, cause the wagon on the narrator was gone as fast as it appeared.
Unfortunatly, I can't deceide if this is a wolf trying to appear distracted, a wolf actually being distracted (would the wolves discuss the wagon in their chat? Maybe a mentioning, but nothing major, I suppose) or town being distracted. Minimal wolf lean, I guess?
The question is NAI (and I agree, this function should be advertised more!)

Testing the new function out!

Edit: Nope, that did not work.

NAI

I mean, Kraken voted as a joke, but the words 'narrator wagon' were used and Rogan hasn't changed their vote yet. I guess you're right that it's not a wagon until there are two votes in place. Though like I said, mine is a placeholder until I've made up my mind on who to actually vote for. It's pretty much replacing a No Lynch vote.

- - - Updated - - -

Okay, trying the function for real this time. Hopefully it works!

Edit: Yay!

Missed that I HAD changed my vote. What's wrong with all the people getting confused about my voting?
Probably still NAI.
The update is NAI for sure.

Sure! Happy to equalize things.

flat-footed has my vote.

In response to my request to create a 5 way tie. Maybe an attempt to get on my good side, but nothing concrete either.

Okay, I’m super drunk and posting from my phone, but IMO Bink is looking sus as hell. More details to come tomorrow.

- - - Updated - - -

After I’ve had a good night’s sleep.

Casting shade on FarmerBlink and prommising more. Interesting, but NAI at the moment.

Not sure if it qualifies as an ISO (mostly because I don’t know what that means, someone should really put a spoilered glossary of terms for new players). This is my read on Bink for D1.

Spoiler: Thoughts on Farmerbink

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So the first quote is very playful and does not seem in character from his behaviour last game. He ‘may’ have a hidden agenda, and he’s literally writing in giggles and snorts. Either he is town trying to draw attention to himself by posting this, or he is a wolf just toying with people early on. If it’s the former I don’t understand why, but I read it as suspicious.




In his earlier post, Bink votes for Rogan, seemingly because it is random and he just chose him out of thin air. Then he changes votes here to gac, seemingly for the sake of symmetry. But he absolutely avoided the question of why at first, which seems sus to me. He is also posting a lot, way more than he did last game at pretty much any point (other than the kerfuffle with AV).

Also… look at the way he’s writing! He might as well put on a damn goatee while he’s at it.



Nope. This reads as super insincere to me. This is not his first game of Mafia, and I doubt that he would have ‘misread the signs’ to this degree. This looks like classic wolf backpedaling.



You know what this reads like to me? An attempt at affability to save face, because he knows that he has already been called out and backpedaled into a different vote. And I’m not buying it.

Would appreciate some other folks weighing in to confirm whether or not my read makes sense! I do want to change my vote but I want to make sure before I jump ship from FF to Bink.

- - - Updated - - -

And look, another meaningless post from Bink. All I see at this point is a wolf who just can’t stop talking.

The promised case. Actually delivering his case is a good look, in my opinion.
The case itself doesn't feel forced. I think, it is a sincere attempt to case another player. Especially the update makes me think he is realy feeling this way.
The only negative point is, he didn't commit to this by voting. Memo to self: Check the vote count at this time.
Update: Vote count was 2 votes for Kraken, Snow, Gac, Bat and Flat each, with 3Sec at flat.

Okay, well I'm still not 100% confident on my ability to read you as wolf, but damn it if you're going to vote me, I'm going to vote you right back! Farmerbink for the noose, please.

OMGUS vote on the player he cased before. I can see town using the vote as a last nudge in order to go after their case instead of waiting for more experienced players to comment on his thoughts.

Kraken (3): gac, flat, Rogan
Snow (2): Bat, Blades
Bat (2): Snow, Kraken
Flat (1): Cao
Farmer (1): 3Sec
3Sec (1): Farmer
No Lynch (1): Opsimos

I guess, some players will see this as IIA (Information instead of analysis, a way to upp your post count in order to appear more active and helpful. TODO: Check timestamps.
Update: This post was made shortly after the post before. I guess, he was hoping for an update, but Snow posted inbetween. Feels fine.

Well this thread moved quickly while I was gone. It looks like crunch time, and my vote for Bink is no longer of any use. Seems like he was just entertaining me (and I was entertaining him right back, lol) even though his behaviour is weird and I still have a slight wolfish lean I am not going to waste my vote D1 to prove a point.

There is way too much text for me to bother going back to quote people, but reading some of the arguments, I am tempted to lynch Snowblaze. Not because I necessarily think they are wolf - though they did change their tune about Bink the moment it was clear I wasn’t starting a wagon there, so I could see a Snow-Bink team here - but because anyone’s death at this point will give information. Rogan’s logic is sound, I just think Snow is a better target.

Kraken has been reading pretty null to me - too few posts, other than the narrator bandwagon thing I don’t disagree with his BCH read - and so Snow is slightly more wolfy of the two to me. If someone is going to die D1, I think I would rather it be her.

So... Wolf!3Sec would post this to influence todays lynch while still leaving a way open for a Farmer lynch on a later day. Thats especially true if Kraken is a wolf as well. But even without this team, getting rid of snow as an skilled active player would be a decent move for a wolf.
Town!3Sec... Hmm... I get wanting your vote to matter, while not feeling confident enough to try to make your vote matter on the target you think is wolfish. Being forced to pick between two viable wagons, he picked Snow, without having an actual wolf read.

I'm not sure at all...

Oh, didn’t see the ‘Bink mysteriously knowing that Cao is inactive’ bit (posting from phone so harder to update). Hmmm. Definitely worth suspecting, but I’m not starting a wagon there even if flat goes so I will keep with Snow.

So, this one feels a bit bad. His favorite target got some traction again (partly cause of an mistake on my side, I should add) but he keeps voting for Snow.

I said I don’t necessarily wolfread you… but between you and Kraken this round, I think you are more likely to be wolf. Therefore, if we are doing Rogan’s plan of ‘let’s lynch someone D1 to get info and narrow the pool of suspects’, I think you are the best target for it. If you are town, then I am sorry.

Honestly, this is my second game here and I don’t feel confident enough to actively wolfread anyone this early on. I was dead on suspecting Kraken last game, but then let everyone else convince me that my gut was wrong. I would rather see my vote through and be wrong than swap again.

Yeah... Seeing the rest of the ISO, this feels very bad. While Kraken was a serious contender for the vote for a good part of the day, he wasn't anymore at this point of the game, while Farmer was getting more likely.
I guess town!3Sec could have missed this developement, cause he is busy with RL. In this case, voting Snow over Kraken would be totaly fine in my opinion, not a reason to wolf read him. And I would feel bad about lynching him under those circumstances. I don't think he is lying about his RL. But being distracted does not automaticaly mean being town...

I donÂ’t understand what you donÂ’t understand about what I said. You looked slightly more suspicious to me than Kraken (who I didnÂ’t really have a read on this early) and so I voted you out of desire to get info from a lynch on D1. If youÂ’re wolf, then great. If not, then IÂ’m sorry but we still learn stuff from you dying.

Again, this may be a syntax thing. If ‘wolfread’ means ‘I suspect you at all of being a wolf’, then I guess yeah. But once again, this is my second game (really first, I didn’t even make it through the last one) and there are a lot of terms that have not been explained to me that I’ve had to put together through context. I apologize if I misunderstood.



Nope. IÂ’m on mobile as well, in an area with little cell service and IÂ’m actively out and about with people. I canÂ’t be on my phone for long, so I wonÂ’t be doing an ISO or anything.

As for whether Snow is more suspicious than Bat: I do not know. I am pretty much out of time to post or really do much of anything, so my vote for Snow will stand for now. Read into that if you want I guess, but I was around all day yesterday and now I legitimately canÂ’t reply any more.

So, there is definitly frustration in this. It can be faked or be a real fealing, used to misslead, but I'll give it some don't lynch points.
However, I don't like the non-answer to my questions / requests They were:
Is Snow more suspicous than Bat? Please give a general read on Bat as well and give your favorite target for a lynch (including no lynch) for the day.

So, saying "I have no idea about Bat" is not great. Bat was one of the most active posters day 1, I think you should manage to find at least something to say about him. Even disregaring this... Answering the question about the favorite lynch after a good part of the day does not feel that hard for me, even when you have to write on mobile and are out of time.

Finally back to the land of computers as of today! I'm back to more reliable posting.



So you're not wrong on Cao; I posted previously about a potential Bink-Cao pairing, but I think it's a bit thin right now. Their timing wasn't great, but I'm not entirely convinced I want to throw a vote their way yet. Do you have a stronger case than just timing?

I like what you said about applying pressure to inactive players. If you build a Cao case, I'll go a different direction and vote flat_footed to put some pressure on him. He was similarly inactive for the beginning and then did some wagon hopping (Kraken to Bink to Snow, IIRC) very suddenly. Does anyone else want to do a flat ISO?



Admittedly that's not much of a defense, but it's hard to critique. I was at a cottage and thus also didn't have much in the way of phone access for a while, so I can't really judge you too much for being silent... but you were definitely quiet for a few days, not just the time leading up to EOD. Looking back, you've got a grand total of 7 posts, so I can't also rule out the idea of you just trying to stay under the radar.

Reading is mostly null, but I do get slight wolf lean too.

- - - Updated - - -

Ninja'd by a Bink vote for Cao! This is either theatre (let's see if Bink stays on the wagon or ditches), or I'm dead wrong on my read about them both being wolves.

Well, to answer the question: Nope. Caos Timing was bad and his "I don't care" stance is not very pro town either, but I don't think he is a wolf anymore.

The part about flat feels fine, altough I woudn't put too much attention on the Snow vote. This one was purely self defense. Flat had no options without risking his own neck. But I think, I'm losing focus...
"I like what you (Rogan) said" could be an attempt to pocket me, I guess? Trying to pick the post apart, looking for AI stuff.
Asking for a flat ISO instead of doing one on his own is slightly wolfy, I guess, since wolf!3Sec could check towns stance on flat befor comitting himself.

I can't word it, but something feels off about the reply to Cao.

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I guess I'll end up below zero, but still feel bad for this.
Now, up to check Ops.

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I was previously confident on them being town, but I do think that Rogan is perhaps being a little too active - the "ask me a question" thing gives me slight wolfish vibes, but doing an ISO of them would take far more time and patience than I have posting on mobile. I'm curious if anyone else has comments on this.

You don't know this cause you are rather new here, but I'm nearly allways pretty active. Not the first time someone things that's a bad look, but I don't care. If I have time, energy and motivation, I'll post. A lot.
For reference, I've ended up as nr 4 or 5 in regards to posts, despite dying day 1, in a 15 player match.

And the worst thing? I've reduced the number of joke posts already.

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Spoiler: Opsimos ISO

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Confused, Edgar steps out of the fog. Taking of his top hat, he nods in the direction of his company. "Esteemed Saints, does this not resemble a prisoner's dilemma? Is choosing No Lynching irrational?"

A reasonable post from a new player.
Slight context, there was a 5 way tie at this moment. If he was Evil and an ally was in danger, it would have been easy to pick someone else to reduce the risk to his team. Either not Evil, or no ally in danger.

Ops touches his goatee as he listens to the answers of the other pioneers to Utopia. "Thank you for your care, Sir Kraken, Sir Farmerbink, you other seniors, and especially Sir Rogan. Your words contain reason. Since none of you seniors know me, you will not get much from killing me. Thus, silence commends itself to me." Ops smiles slightly. "But avoiding risks is not why we came here, is it? If my seniors are willing to lure out the enemy, it would be rude of me not to follow suit."

"Lady Snowblaze, please do pardon this junior's offense. My reason for suggesting you is that you appear too wise and eloquent. I dread that if you harbored ill intentions, we could not oppose your will. Were you to leave Utopia, however, by train or otherwise, I reckon that we would hold greater sway over our fates – given the uncertainty of your pathway and intentions, of course."

Wiping some sweat from his forehead, Ops smiles wrily. "I realize I am being somewhat inconsistent. Please feel free to correct me, senior Snowblaze." Turning to Rogan, "Sir Rogan, your vision was insightful. If I may be so bold: Are you, perhaps, a Visionary?"

This one is strange, for multiple reasons.
Number 1: Would you jump from "No, we don't kill without info" to "Let's kill a skilled player in case they are evil"? It feels like these options are on totaly opposite corners of the spectrum.
Number 2: How does he know that Snow is dangerous? I guess he could have checked her stats in the signature or simply noticed she was very active, but still... It feels stange. See below as well

Sorry for breaking character and not quoting, there's little time left.

@Snow: This is my first game. I have no idea who you are and have not followed any PBP, actually.

Why did I vote No Lynching? I'm changing from No Lynching because everyone's explanation made sense about gaining information from votes. Initially, I thought No Lynching is the default as we might hit town and there's no basis for any info gained from lynching on D1. Basically, I'm a noob.

Please feel free to off me. If I point fingers, I forfeit my right not to have fingers pointed at me.

Your explanation about being a good ally doesn't convince me. I'm sorry. I'll add more later.

@everyone: What do ISO and NAI mean?

Finally, thank you Rogan for your continued explanations. What you (and Snow?) said about the powers makes sense.

Confirmation that he doesn't know Snow, which plays a part in the analysis above. I guess, she might have suspected him as well, but didn't accuse him because we simply don't do this to new players on day 1.

Also, he promised more later, but didn't deliver. NAGL. (Not a good look)

Should we try to speculate on the powers by using information from the book? Or would that be considered meta-gaming or helping the wolves?

Spoiler

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For instance, I think the Fool Sequence is in the game and will obtain vote manipulation powers at sequence 5. Another candidate for this would be the Black Emperor Pathway. Abyss and Demoness are the most obvious evil pathways.

Note that IÂ’m too lazy to look at all the possible powers by myself.

A wolf might have tried to get people to speculate in order to catch glimpses on towns powers. But only minor Evil points.

Why is this lynch better than hitting a wolf given that she can kill?

Feels like an honest question. Minor Town points, as a wolf might ask this in the wolf chat instead of here.

Thanks for your explanations!

NAI

Congrats!

I'm not surprised by the fool's power. From what I remember of the novel, Klein, the protagonist, did exactly what the power describes while he was Sequence 9. He tracked what others did using his esoteric powers and was always one step too late. In the end,

Spoiler

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he died because the person he tracked knew he was being tracked.

Maybe this case is similar? Someone like the Hunter (Red Priest) or Criminal (Abyss) could have protection from being tracked as well as increased strength to kill, assuming their powers resemble those in the novel. But I have no clue. This is just an interesting (to me) speculation based on the books. More likely, the Seer got unlucky and the wolves killed him, right?

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Oh, and I'll wait a bit with my vote again because I want to hear the arguments of the more experienced players first, if that's alright.

Role / Mech speculation, backed up by knoledge of the storys.
Town!Ops would just have fun to spot this parallel.
Evil!Ops could try to plant the seed of doubt regarding the Red Priest or Abyss pathways and / or pretend that the wolves didn't want to kill blades for his reads. One of which might point to Ops.

Waiting for arguments is understandable for a new player, but also very helpful for a wolf.

I end up below zero as well. I'm looking forward to see more content.
My vote will remain here for the moment. Probably also for the upcomming night (23:20 in central europe)

[flat_footed]

SYou don't know this cause you are rather new here, but I'm nearly allways pretty active. Not the first time someone things that's a bad look, but I don't care. If I have time, energy and motivation, I'll post. A lot.
For reference, I've ended up as nr 4 or 5 in regards to posts, despite dying day 1, in a 15 player match.

And the worst thing? I've reduced the number of joke posts already.

Rogan is the highest poster by a decent clip, followed by Batcathat and Farmerbink.

At this point, I'd rather promote discussion with pressure than leave my vote uncast, so I'll second Batcathat.

[gac3]

It just hit me... I just had an up close and personal experience with Kraken being a wolf. Their though processes and everything they were willing to share. It doesn't match up at all with the things that are triggering me right now. Since this is the second game I've played with them, that would actually lead me to a town read. I know people can change tactics from game to game but this is so drastically different from last game... I think I'm actually going to switch that vote to a strong town lean for the moment and go back and look for someone new.

Also slight town read on Rogan.

[Opsimos]

I think, it's more likely that blades got killed for being a strong player. He might have been up to something, which he hinted at during the night. After this post, I'm not very surprised he died. Okay, in fact I am. I thought he could have resistance to kills and would be trying to block a kill with this. Obviously not what happened.

It's okay to wait a bit with voting, but it would be great if you could still do something. Ask questions, share observations, use your knowledge of the story to make guesses about the Alignment of the differnt Roles. My instinct said they would be random, but on the other hand, Snow most likely got her combination deliberatly and some others might fit as well. Maybe we can spot a pattern when we get more intel, in which case your work might be vital. The most important part of course is, do something and engage with the game. It's more fun and it will help the rest of us to get a picture of you. Don't worry about being wrong. It's perfectly normal.

Reading Farmerbink's assessment of Bladescape, it makes even more sense that he was killed because of being a strong player. You mention that

Evil!Ops could try to plant the seed of doubt regarding the Red Priest or Abyss pathways and / or pretend that the wolves didn't want to kill blades for his reads. One of which might point to Ops.

Yes, you're right. That could be the case. But you have to assume that I was capable to make sense of all the posts from D1/N1 to make such a play, and that I didn't simply point out one interesting possibility based on the novel. I submit that both are not true.

About the alignments, I think Book selected them based on how well the power from the sequence fits a role in the Game. So, Moon or Mother won't be neutral (Moon) or evil (Mother) because they have those alignments in the story. Rather, they'll be something like the Town Healer who can make a potion to heal someone. I expect Book went with Moon out of the two because Moon (Vampires) are nocturnal. This could match the Healer's need to know who is about die at night. Similarly, Red Priest could be the Town Sheriff or Evil, but Abyss, Demoness, and Error will probably be Evil. Door isn't in the game, I think. Wheel could well be neutral. Many of the "gain ritualistic powers" could be anything. If I get more time, I will look through this more carefully.

I'm not sure if I should share my speculations. Won't I die more easily like Bladescape? If you respond that I win if we win... is that so? I always thought that you win if you remain alive until the end?

Now, with regard to your investigation:

This one is strange, for multiple reasons.
Number 1: Would you jump from "No, we don't kill without info" to "Let's kill a skilled player in case they are evil"? It feels like these options are on totaly opposite corners of the spectrum.
Number 2: How does he know that Snow is dangerous? I guess he could have checked her stats in the signature or simply noticed she was very active, but still... It feels stange. [...]
Also, he promised more later, but didn't deliver. NAGL. (Not a good look)

I wasn't sure if someone would be interested except for Snowblaze. When I offered her to explain myself, I did not consider that in the event of her death, she would not be allowed to continue posting here. (It was late at night, folks!) Allow me to explain now.

Most of Snowblaze's reads went waaaayyy above my head and I didn't have the time to ask her about them. Then she also had this intimidating track record in her signature. I thought that if she is an enemy, then I will have no idea how I even died. That is something I would avoid rather strongly. What about her response that she could also be a big Town Player? That's great! But Town plays are something I can also contribute to. Admitting that she is necessary to win feels cheap. Since the Con seemingly outweighed the Pro, I felt that there is more pay-off in sending her away with the train. Also, on a side note, even if she were Town, who is to say she wouldn't throw me under the bus? I would probably even agree with her despite being Town. After all, this is my first Werewolf game in, what, seven years? Again, I'm not sure I can count that as a win even if Town prevails.

A wolf might have tried to get people to speculate in order to catch glimpses on towns powers. But only minor Evil points.

Note that this is after I was corrected by Snowblaze and you not to ask directly about anyone's powers. Note also that this is why I only speculated about evil powers in my post. I figured that wolves don't profit if only their powers are revealed. And I asked if we should speculate in order to avoid those minor Evil points lol.

I'll ask you a question in a different post to avoid repeating a question.

For now, I'll tentatively vote BatCatHat. I'm still open to arguments, however.

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Alright, Rogan, could you answer how much you currently trust Farmerbink?

As for why I tentatively voted BCH, it touches on a player possibly having figured something out, based on the posts here. Does talking about this cross a line?
If I had time outside the middle of the night, I would think more and ask less. Sorry, all.

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I should probably add that my vote for Snowblaze was initially pretty weak and flimsy. It was only because other posters seemingly racked up points of suspicion that I kept my vote on her. You can see that this is true based on the way that I've written. Look at the first part which follows your instruction to vote for information gain in spite of personal safety, but follows up with a reason to vote her out inspired by personal safety (the concerns I laid out above). Look at me mentioning this inconsistency and asking for her correction.

[3SecondCultist]

Responding to the updated ISO on me (and the original one I guess, since I wasn't on computer to properly defend myself then). I've also got the ISO for flat, which is spoilered at the bottom.

The promised case. Actually delivering his case is a good look, in my opinion.
The case itself doesn't feel forced. I think, it is a sincere attempt to case another player. Especially the update makes me think he is realy feeling this way.
The only negative point is, he didn't commit to this by voting. Memo to self: Check the vote count at this time.
Update: Vote count was 2 votes for Kraken, Snow, Gac, Bat and Flat each, with 3Sec at flat.

I didn't realize that not voting for a player after giving a case was negative. Why is that suspicious? I literally asked the thread to confirm my wolfread to see if moving my vote was worth it or not. Here's the quote again, in which I openly ask the forum to weigh in on the ISO.

Would appreciate some other folks weighing in to confirm whether or not my read makes sense! I do want to change my vote but I want to make sure before I jump ship from FF to Bink.

I had the FF vote up for a tie because you asked me to, and didn't want to jump in on a big wagon early.

I guess, some players will see this as IIA (Information instead of analysis, a way to upp your post count in order to appear more active and helpful. TODO: Check timestamps.
Update: This post was made shortly after the post before. I guess, he was hoping for an update, but Snow posted inbetween. Feels fine.

Got it in one. I'm still getting used to the updates and got ninja'd by the most active player (other than yourself).

So, this one feels a bit bad. His favorite target got some traction again (partly cause of an mistake on my side, I should add) but he keeps voting for Snow.

My 'favorite target', as you so-called him, admitted outright to the whole thread that he was just messing with me. But that's entirely secondary to the fact that last weekend I was a) on a mobile phone, at a cottage with friends that was pretty much in a deadzone and thus relying on spotty wifi and b) the thread absolutely exploded with posts leading up to EOD. There was no way I was keeping up with half of what was going on. By the time I got the access and more importantly the time, Snow was already gone and weighing in then would not have helped.

Yeah... Seeing the rest of the ISO, this feels very bad. While Kraken was a serious contender for the vote for a good part of the day, he wasn't anymore at this point of the game, while Farmer was getting more likely.
I guess town!3Sec could have missed this developement, cause he is busy with RL. In this case, voting Snow over Kraken would be totaly fine in my opinion, not a reason to wolf read him. And I would feel bad about lynching him under those circumstances. I don't think he is lying about his RL. But being distracted does not automaticaly mean being town...

Emphasis mine.

Like I told Snow, I said they were more likely to be wolf than Kraken. But more to the point... I was right about Snow not being Town. I did gutping her behaviour absolutely correctly. So when I was asked (by Snow, no less!) to move off of Bink to one of the wagons, I put the vote on her, following the logic that you laid out earlier in day: as Town, we get info from a D1 lynch. I didn't have the time to read through all the points or even really parse the other votes for Bink then. As I said, the lynch had long since happened by the time I was sat down at a computer.

So, there is definitly frustration in this. It can be faked or be a real fealing, used to misslead, but I'll give it some don't lynch points.
However, I don't like the non-answer to my questions / requests They were:
Is Snow more suspicous than Bat? Please give a general read on Bat as well and give your favorite target for a lynch (including no lynch) for the day.

So, saying "I have no idea about Bat" is not great. Bat was one of the most active posters day 1, I think you should manage to find at least something to say about him. Even disregaring this... Answering the question about the favorite lynch after a good part of the day does not feel that hard for me, even when you have to write on mobile and are out of time.

Again, I will emphasize: I was not available. Those posts you are reading from EOD? Those were scrabbled together over maybe a few minutes. When you say 'does not feel that hard for me', I would like to elaborate that my partner was literally taking my phone away from me since I was at her place with her family and being antisocial. What is easy for you might not be the same as everyone else.

I will say that I should have made it clearer to the rest of Town that I was going dark before EOD. I had a few hours in the morning to post. And it's definitely on me not to weigh in on BCH after the fact (they were indeed a super active poster on D1). I was fairly null on Bat, since I'm still pretty new to this and didn't have a baseline to compare their behavior to. I guess the amount of activity and them jumping around was suspicious?

If you asked me now by the way, I'd say their silence is more suspicious than their D1 activity. At least the inconsistency is.

Well, to answer the question: Nope. Caos Timing was bad and his "I don't care" stance is not very pro town either, but I don't think he is a wolf anymore.

The part about flat feels fine, altough I woudn't put too much attention on the Snow vote. This one was purely self defense. Flat had no options without risking his own neck. But I think, I'm losing focus...
"I like what you (Rogan) said" could be an attempt to pocket me, I guess? Trying to pick the post apart, looking for AI stuff.
Asking for a flat ISO instead of doing one on his own is slightly wolfy, I guess, since wolf!3Sec could check towns stance on flat befor comitting himself.

Do you even realize how much longer it takes for me to write an ISO than you? As I mentioned before, this is basically the first full game of this I've played through here, and it takes me a while (and a decent amount of mental energy) to sit down and parse through pages and pages of forum posts. I've been playing in forum games on GitP for over a decade, and these ones are by far the most mentally exhausting.

I've been working on the flat ISO on and off all day, in between my job and other games. I hadn't gotten around to posting it yet, because I wanted to try to make a solid case. Then - while that is happening - you double down on the ISO against me. I don't care that it sounds defensive, that is super irritating and highly demoralizing. It makes me want to participate less, not more.

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Spoiler: flat_footed ISO

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Let'sGetKraken

It doesn't make up for last game, but I do feel a little better now.

This is obviously a joke / placeholder vote, not meant to be taken seriously. NAI.

Doing a bit of a dive in to Mysterium. We don't have much history on Bink since he recently joined us, but the posting and vote jumping just feels out of place off the cuff. Going to place a holder OMGUS vote on Farmerbink and see if it fits my suspicions.

Spoiler: Day 1

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First post, vote for Rogan and the usual purple RP. Second RP post. Day end. Very different style thus far, but relatively small sample size.

Spoiler: Day 2

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Purple RP, vote for Kraken (if only! ) and an edit switch to Apogee shortly thereafter. Second post, no RP and calling out Apogee for silence. Third post no rp, but defends reasoning for switching Kraken and laments voting someone busy in RL. Fourth post, RP.

flat's analysis of Bink lines up with mine, more or less. I don't know if that makes him more or less suspicious, trying to be seen agreeing with me or setting up a Bink wagon later. It's a decent read on what I think is a pretty widely-agreed upon chaotic start from Bink. Slight town lean?

Yeah, I see that now after my post. I'll do some reading and switch off. Bink's vote roulette is very different than their town posting last game, but there are other similarities enough that I'm comfortable moving my vote.

See above. He does move wagons but still puts shade on Bink. wolf!flat would likely not want Bink dead D1; he's a relatively inexperienced player and it would make more sense to off Snow as a genuine threat.

I'm not opposed to it, but I'm out of time at the moment. I should be free again before end of day to vote. Your "I'm not going to argue this until 3sec responds" seems to have gone out the window, but that's understandable as one of the wagons. of course he ninja'd me



Sorry to hear that. Do you know how to change your mobile view at the bottom left of your screen? As hard as it is posting on a phone, the default mobile view makes it worse. You can also click the << at the top right to give yourself a little more viewing space.

The response to Snow is fair, but the 'I'm out of time' thing could be a wolfy excuse even if he is telling the truth about it. He only posted a few times D1 in general, and I also think there is at least one wolf in the quiet crowd.

(Yes I am well aware of how hypocritical this is, shut up)

I will add this: everyone needs to make sure to strike earlier votes. I don't recall Book specifying if the first or last legal vote is counted.

Admin for the GM. NAI.

Some of the most recent posts of hers are pinging on the wolf side of things, yeah. I think the reality is Snow is scrambling to find any port in a storm, so if she fought for a different target than myself, it would be easier to town read her. Kinda biased at this point, and we're out of time by the looks of it.

Correctly pointing out that Snow had notTown! leans (I guess 'the wolf side of things' is inaccurate) is useful, but not itself Town. As has been pointed out, Evil wants Snow dead just as much as Town does. I would assume they weren't told about Neutral roles beforehand; if they were, they'd likely keep Snow alive since there's probably a better chance she offs more Town and helps them. That's a 'wolfy' bit from me.

I never did finish my comparison of Farmer since Snow appealed to me for a focus on the wagons at the time, so I'd have to say them. Their vote jumping on Day 1 just felt off from how they played their previous game, which we know they were town in.

For now, though, I'm a little suspicious of Cao's "preservation" vote on me in the early stages of Day 2. Feels a little lacking using that as a reason, but I guess it's better than no reason at all.

Also for you, Rogan. You tried a last minute fire drill on Day 1 to get 3sec lynched, but seem to have more or less abandoned that. Book gave us an accurate 20 minute warning, and your timing meant Snow didn't have much of a chance of being saved. What's changed about your reads to the point where you think they are a less viable target?

The overt shade on Cao and implied shade on Rogan isn't great. After listening to a few other posts, I don't think I suspect the former anymore, and I don't think Rogan is wolf... this seems like an attempt to just draw our attention as Town to literally anyone else to see what wagons stick.

Rogan is the highest poster by a decent clip, followed by Batcathat and Farmerbink.

At this point, I'd rather promote discussion with pressure than leave my vote uncast, so I'll second Batcathat.

The vote for BCH could just be an attempt to ring another quiet Town, but going off of their D1 behavior, BCH would have chimed in before now. I definitely wouldn't pair them, but the whole interaction feels weird.

I would say I'd put flat slightly south of neutral, weighing everything in. I will leave my vote where it is for the time being, but I'm not sure how confident I am in it.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I'm not sure if I should share my speculations. Won't I die more easily like Bladescape? If you respond that I win if we win... is that so? I always thought that you win if you remain alive until the end?

Yes - the win conditions for Town and Mafia are that if their side wins, anyone who was aligned with them also wins.

If dying meant an auto-loss for you personally then it changes from a team game to one where everyone functions as a survivor and might act against their side. People would get punished for playing the game well (in the case of a Townie getting killed by the mafia for having correct reads) or for using their abilities to the fullest (an Investigative role outing a Mafia member but getting killed as a threat).

So Blade still wins with Town, because his win condition is still possible and it says nothing about whether or not Blade is alive himself:

You are a Town Beyonder. You win when all Evil Beyonders are dead.

Presumably, Mafia/Wolves/Evil players would have a win condition that is the opposite of that, winning when all Town Beyonders are dead or nothing could prevent this (so we don't spend days playing out a game where that side can't lose).

Snow's win condition is a bit different though and we've been (or I have been) referring to her as a Serial Killer because of her win condition. I suppose technically she could still win if somehow we got to all other players being dead, but a different win con would almost certainly activate first.

You are a Neutral Beyonder. You win when all other Beyonders are dead.

The only other common win condition that could be in play would be for a survivor type role who specifically loses if they die. It would probably look something like this:

You are a Neutral Beyonder. You win if you are alive at the end.

[Farmerbink]

Current vote count:

Flat: CtheC, 3Sec
BatCat: Farmerbink, Flat_Foot, Opsimos,
Farmerbink: gac3
Opsimos: Rogan ((correct your no-lynch vote, please!)
No Votes: LGKraken (rl internet issues)
No posts: BCH (???)

---

With a feline stretch the lithe man yawns. "Hmmmm. Not just tons to add before I hit the hay. Odd that our reduplicative friend has been quiet for so long. On the one hand, I hate to punish him for it, but he's not helping us figure anything out..."

Spoiler: OOC

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After this afternoon, I don't feel like a lot has changed.

I re-read the mysterium talk on me. I'll have to RP in like green next game. Maybe blue. XD

More to the point, BatCatHat hasn't posted in this thread since 8/21, so... Uuuuuuhhhhhhhhh. I'm content to leave my vote where it is simply based on town urgency. We're not learning anything useful from his silence as the leading 3-man wagon... I would love to have some input from him before the mortal coil gets all shuffled.

Not gonna change it before bedtime. /salute

[Rogan]

Yes - the win conditions for Town and Mafia are that if their side wins, anyone who was aligned with them also wins.

If dying meant an auto-loss for you personally then it changes from a team game to one where everyone functions as a survivor and might act against their side. People would get punished for playing the game well (in the case of a Townie getting killed by the mafia for having correct reads) or for using their abilities to the fullest (an Investigative role outing a Mafia member but getting killed as a threat).

So Blade still wins with Town, because his win condition is still possible and it says nothing about whether or not Blade is alive himself:


Presumably, Mafia/Wolves/Evil players would have a win condition that is the opposite of that, winning when all Town Beyonders are dead or nothing could prevent this (so we don't spend days playing out a game where that side can't lose).

Snow's win condition is a bit different though and we've been (or I have been) referring to her as a Serial Killer because of her win condition. I suppose technically she could still win if somehow we got to all other players being dead, but a different win con would almost certainly activate first.


The only other common win condition that could be in play would be for a survivor type role who specifically loses if they die. It would probably look something like this:

I want to add the following to this:
Staying alive is always nice. You can be sure about your own side, after all, so staying alive will help your team. But if everyone places their own survival above anything else, that's better for the wolves.

In the end, you have to find the right balance between secrets and being open. If you say and do too much, you might get killed before you got enough info to really make a difference. Too little, and you either end up as a misslynch, which in my opinion is worse than a wolf kill, or get to the endgame and can't push against the remaining wolves.
Finding this right balance is a process and I can't say I've found the best spot yet.

I've also wanted to add that everything Cao said is true, as far as I can tell. Of course, only the real survivor (assuming there is one) would know the exact wording of the victory condition, but it sounds perfectly in line with the things we already know.

[gac3]

I should have time after work to decide between flat and bat.

[Batcathat]

flat_footed

[gac3]

flat_footed

Oh my... That means I'm actually currently going to be a tie breaking vote. Though two other people can still vote on either wagon. Still plenty of time for people to make a random third unrelated wagon also. I guess I'll start by checking the arguments against people.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: Day 2 ISO of Bat/Flat's posts.

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Rogan is the highest poster by a decent clip, followed by Batcathat and Farmerbink.

At this point, I'd rather promote discussion with pressure than leave my vote uncast, so I'll second Batcathat.

flat_footed

Okay... So it really really bugs me that I'm finally back to this and there is literally no case of any sort against either wolf. Nearly everybody voted with little to no explination beyond "pressure vote". The two candidates aren't posting much, which I think Bat said something about and is just typical for flat. So given all those factors as well as knowing that based on my sleep schedule, I don't have time to try to push a third extra wagon, I'm going to go ahead and vote Flat-Footed because I do agree with 3 second cultist's weird vibe about their single post day two.

[Rogan]

Reading Farmerbink's assessment of Bladescape, it makes even more sense that he was killed because of being a strong player. You mention that Yes, you're right. That could be the case. But you have to assume that I was capable to make sense of all the posts from D1/N1 to make such a play, and that I didn't simply point out one interesting possibility based on the novel. I submit that both are not true.

About the alignments, I think Book selected them based on how well the power from the sequence fits a role in the Game. So, Moon or Mother won't be neutral (Moon) or evil (Mother) because they have those alignments in the story. Rather, they'll be something like the Town Healer who can make a potion to heal someone. I expect Book went with Moon out of the two because Moon (Vampires) are nocturnal. This could match the Healer's need to know who is about die at night. Similarly, Red Priest could be the Town Sheriff or Evil, but Abyss, Demoness, and Error will probably be Evil. Door isn't in the game, I think. Wheel could well be neutral. Many of the "gain ritualistic powers" could be anything. If I get more time, I will look through this more carefully.

I'm not sure if I should share my speculations. Won't I die more easily like Bladescape? If you respond that I win if we win... is that so? I always thought that you win if you remain alive until the end?

Now, with regard to your investigation:



I wasn't sure if someone would be interested except for Snowblaze. When I offered her to explain myself, I did not consider that in the event of her death, she would not be allowed to continue posting here. (It was late at night, folks!) Allow me to explain now.

Most of Snowblaze's reads went waaaayyy above my head and I didn't have the time to ask her about them. Then she also had this intimidating track record in her signature. I thought that if she is an enemy, then I will have no idea how I even died. That is something I would avoid rather strongly. What about her response that she could also be a big Town Player? That's great! But Town plays are something I can also contribute to. Admitting that she is necessary to win feels cheap. Since the Con seemingly outweighed the Pro, I felt that there is more pay-off in sending her away with the train. Also, on a side note, even if she were Town, who is to say she wouldn't throw me under the bus? I would probably even agree with her despite being Town. After all, this is my first Werewolf game in, what, seven years? Again, I'm not sure I can count that as a win even if Town prevails.


Note that this is after I was corrected by Snowblaze and you not to ask directly about anyone's powers. Note also that this is why I only speculated about evil powers in my post. I figured that wolves don't profit if only their powers are revealed. And I asked if we should speculate in order to avoid those minor Evil points lol.

I'll ask you a question in a different post to avoid repeating a question.

For now, I'll tentatively vote BatCatHat. I'm still open to arguments, however.

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Alright, Rogan, could you answer how much you currently trust Farmerbink?

As for why I tentatively voted BCH, it touches on a player possibly having figured something out, based on the posts here. Does talking about this cross a line?
If I had time outside the middle of the night, I would think more and ask less. Sorry, all.

- - - Updated - - -

I should probably add that my vote for Snowblaze was initially pretty weak and flimsy. It was only because other posters seemingly racked up points of suspicion that I kept my vote on her. You can see that this is true based on the way that I've written. Look at the first part which follows your instruction to vote for information gain in spite of personal safety, but follows up with a reason to vote her out inspired by personal safety (the concerns I laid out above). Look at me mentioning this inconsistency and asking for her correction.

I'm 99% sure your observation about Blades power and the similarities to the story is true. Wolf!You would probably have mentioned this in the private channel and your ally gave you an idea to use this. As a wolf, being able to coordinate and bounce off ideas is a huge help. My only successful wolf game had me a bit in the background, giving observations and ideas to my allies, and one of them managed to craft a case so beautiful, even the person framed had to admit it made perfect sense and they would have believed it if they hadn't known it to be wrong. (If you are a wolf and you had intended to frame some paths on your own, congratulations)

Since I don't have knowledge of the source material for the game, I'm simply going to trust that the things you've said about the roles in the story are true, hoping someone with knowledge would call you out of you were trying to be misleading.
I wonder, is there a specific reason you can share about door not being in the game? No need to get too detailed here, I'm mostly curious.
I think the idea of vampire for actin in the night is a bit far fetched (per the rules, most active powers are uses in the night), but nothing I'd worry about.

The part about staying alive got an own post, so I'll skip this in this reply.


Your replies to the read now (I guess, on the Laptop I'd split your quote, to make it easier to read, but I'm on mobile now. This will have to do):

It's true, Snow is the person mostly interested in this part. Doing this as an ISO, I might have missed the timing aspekt to see how much time (and chances) you had to expand on this while Snow was alive.

I absolutely agree, it can be very hard to understand the reads of other players, especially when they are less concrete. I think, Blades is worse in this regards. He is cryptic, even at his best times. But let's not lose track...
If I had to compare Snow and You, I'd have to give her better odds at finding the wolves. Simply cause she has more experience playing this game, especially with this group. If she says "Yeah, this player is not behaving normal" that's likely true. This advantage does not hold true in regards to you. As someone new, nobody has a baseline for normal behavior.
Something which reads strange to me (but I'm confident that's because you don't know the background) is your notion that Town!Snow might throw you under the bus. In the context of these games, this usually means to sacrifice an ally in order to strengthen you own position. So it's a move the Wolves might do (and recently did, to great success. You might have noticed some talk about gac and Kraken) but not really possible for town. For once, they usually don't know who's in the same team (there are rare exceptions) but most importantly, getting another townie lynched is not going to give you credibility.
Since you thought staying alive was required, I can still understand your reasoning and it feels fine.

Okay, fair about the power speculation. I'll redacted even those minor points.

Your vote is understandable. I feel decent about unpairing you and Bat (meaning, you are not a wolf team, so if Bat flips evil, you would be clear, if you flip evil, he would be clear. You could also be both town)

Now the update. Boy, this would have been a long post to write even without getting distracted every five minutes...

Farmer... I don't trust him a lot but I didn't spot anything especially evil about him. If he were to make a claim to some action, I'd start by assuming it to be correct until / unless I find some contradiction. In which case I would have to analyze the different sources to figure out the mostly reason.

It's hard to tell if you're going to cross a line without knowing what you intend to say. If you are in doubt about the rules, ask Book in your Discord channel. He might even give you some limited feedback about other things, but of course, his main concern is being a fair and neutral narrator. Still, definitely feel free to talk to him. If he can help you without overstepping the boundaries of his position, he will do this, I'm pretty sure.
If you still need my opinion, I'll try to help you as much as I can with limited info:

Some people will give hints at their power or their results. If they do this, they can't exactly blame you for picking them up and using them. Avoid doing this during the night, since it's more likely to help the wolves at this time.
If you learned something by your power, it's more tricky. You out yourself and someone else. You should do this if you can either help someone in danger if your power points to them being innocent (you might be vague about the details at first) or if you got a good reason to accuse someone of being a wolf.
Clearing someone not in danger usually is not worth the risk of giving Intel to the wolves.

One last thing, from a more experienced player, the last part would seem overly defensive in my opinion. A wolf might be annoyed if I accused them for wrong reasons. Or feel guilty. Town might shrug and go on with their lives, unless it gets serious, in which case discussion would involve more people and therefore, have a higher possibility of having wolves involved.
But for someone new, your defense is perfectly normal. So don't take the thing above as criticism. Oh, and if you are ever in doubt about a thing anybody said during the game, ask again when either everybody involved is dead (and has no reason to maybe wanting to mislead you) or the game has ended. In my experience, some controversial takes will be discussed later anyway. But again, I'm losing track... sorry about this.

I'm feeling worse about my vote for you, cause most of the things I did criticized you can be explained by inexperience. I'll think about moving it.

Sorry for the wall post...

[gac3]

Hey folks, I just randomly started to get paranoid about Rogan and Cape. Like paranoid enough to move my vote. Thoughts?

[Rogan]

flat_footed

Bat, my sympathy! I was going to ask you if you couldn't talk, but then I saw your color. It's absolutely great!

For everyone else:
iamcursedpleasedontkillmecanttalkrightnowonlythisv ote

That's his secret message.
It's either a great plot from wolf him, in which case I'd say let him win, or it's true.

So, if everybody could move away the votes for bat at the moment, that would be great. Thanks a lot.

Bat, can you vote multiple times?
If yes, but only a limited time (and you think this little bit of communication is worth the trouble) vote Seep.
If you can vote as much as you can, vote me. (But please remember to move the vote again later)
If you can't, well I'm afraid there's nothing I can do about it.

@Ops:
Which role(s) do you think would fit for silencing a player? That's pretty likely a wolf power.
@Everybody I'll vote nearly anybody in order to save Bat under those circumstances.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Work has been super busy and IRL is kicking my ass, sorry.

Voting for batcathat. I still think their D1 was sus, and the silence today is not helping.

Other people I sus who are not currently wagons:

Caoimhin, who got away with basically not posting Day 1 way too easily, especially from Rogan who is deeply interrogating others. They've posted but only really to steer attention away from themselves and clarify basic rules.

Opsimos, who is doing what I did last game as a wolf and using being new to avoid contributing much of their thoughts They've also had a lot of discussion about the roles and very little about the players, which is a great way to look as if they're contributing without making themselves suspicious.

Bink just a little. The chaos energy is fine, but the rapidly switching targets feels a little too random.

3SecondCultist, who I think is playing differently than last game when they were town - though this could just be time-based.

People I think are probably town:

Amusingly enough, Gac3 for the same logic they used. Their posting feels very different from when we were wolves together.

Rogan, if this pattern of inviting questioning and being hyper-active are typical (though I think they're likely paired with Cao, as mentioned above).

I'm neutral on Flat, honestly. We voted them off last game for roughly the same level of activity as town, but that they had to be prompted to explain their reasoning... of the two, again, I think bat is the better choice.

Edit: Ninja'd by like three posts. Rogan's theory is... plausible? I don't see Rogan and Bat being paired, and I can't see an alternate motivation here. Changing my vote to CaoimhinTheCape.

[gac3]

Bat, my sympathy! I was going to ask you if you couldn't talk, but then I saw your color. It's absolutely great!

For everyone else:
iamcursedpleasedontkillmecanttalkrightnowonlythisv ote

That's his secret message.
It's either a great plot from wolf him, in which case I'd say let him win, or it's true.

So, if everybody could move away the votes for bat at the moment, that would be great. Thanks a lot.

Bat, can you vote multiple times?
If yes, but only a limited time (and you think this little bit of communication is worth the trouble) vote Seep.
If you can vote as much as you can, vote me. (But please remember to move the vote again later)
If you can't, well I'm afraid there's nothing I can do about it.

@Ops:
Which role(s) do you think would fit for silencing a player? That's pretty likely a wolf power.
@Everybody I'll vote nearly anybody in order to save Bat under those circumstances.

It really took me a minute to figure out what you were talking about. Can I interest you in Cape?

[Rogan]

Hey folks, I just randomly started to get paranoid about Rogan and Cape. Like paranoid enough to move my vote. Thoughts?

I've got my reasons for not suspecting Cao anymore. One of them is, ■ ■■■■■ ■ ■■■■ ■■■ ■■■■. That's a read, going by his posts.
I've also found out something else, but since I would give Intel about someone else, I'm not going to do this even when the player in question probably would not mind.

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It really took me a minute to figure out what you were talking about. Can I interest you in Cape?

Okay, let's be open about one thing:
I think I know his role

In my opinion, he hinted pretty heavily at being the Survivor who simply doesn't care at all. He even quoted his victory condition if this is correct. I'll vote for him over Bat, but I don't think we will get a wolf with him.

Of course, Cao is free to correct me if I'm wrong (and should probably do so if town, in order to avoid further confusion).

[gac3]

I've got my reasons for not suspecting Cao anymore. One of them is, ■ ■■■■■ ■ ■■■■ ■■■ ■■■■. That's a read, going by his posts.
I've also found out something else, but since I would give Intel about someone else, I'm not going to do this even when the player in question probably would not mind.

Actually... Looking back at the post I made that made me paranoid... I think I just really really poorly made that post while half asleep. So slightly less paranoia now. I'll go back to Flatfooted

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For the record, subtract (some) suspicion from Cape and Rogan and make it clear that I am still suspicious of bink.

[3SecondCultist]

Other people I sus who are not currently wagons:

Caoimhin, who got away with basically not posting Day 1 way too easily, especially from Rogan who is deeply interrogating others. They've posted but only really to steer attention away from themselves and clarify basic rules.

Opsimos, who is doing what I did last game as a wolf and using being new to avoid contributing much of their thoughts They've also had a lot of discussion about the roles and very little about the players, which is a great way to look as if they're contributing without making themselves suspicious.

Bink just a little. The chaos energy is fine, but the rapidly switching targets feels a little too random.

3SecondCultist, who I think is playing differently than last game when they were town - though this could just be time-based.

People I think are probably town:

Amusingly enough, Gac3 for the same logic they used. Their posting feels very different from when we were wolves together.

Rogan, if this pattern of inviting questioning and being hyper-active are typical (though I think they're likely paired with Cao, as mentioned above).

I'm neutral on Flat, honestly. We voted them off last game for roughly the same level of activity as town, but that they had to be prompted to explain their reasoning... of the two, again, I think bat is the better choice.

Edit: Ninja'd by like three posts. Rogan's theory is... plausible? I don't see Rogan and Bat being paired, and I can't see an alternate motivation here. Changing my vote to CaoimhinTheCape.

Fairly decent read on people, I guess? I don't feel the need to jump in to defend myself again, but looking at the rest I mostly agree with your thoughts here.

I'm... not convinced by my own case on flat, and definitely second-guessing myself after the D1 fiasco. I put them slightly south of neutral, but there isn't a ton of incriminating evidence either.

People who voted flat (other than Bat, obviously), why are you voting for him?

I'm open to moving my vote, but I need a good case against anybody else. Why are you voting for Cape?

Can I interest you in Cape?

Despite you starting a wagon there and Kraken hopping on, I'm not sold on moving to Cape yet either. Why do you suspect them? Their lack of posting doesn't look great, but that's not a ton to go on.

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Never mind, looks like gac3 is sticking with flat after all. I'll keep my vote where it is for now then.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I've got my reasons for not suspecting Cao anymore. One of them is, ■ ■■■■■ ■ ■■■■ ■■■ ■■■■. That's a read, going by his posts.
I've also found out something else, but since I would give Intel about someone else, I'm not going to do this even when the player in question probably would not mind.

- - - Updated - - -



Okay, let's be open about one thing:
I think I know his role

In my opinion, he hinted pretty heavily at being the Survivor who simply doesn't care at all. He even quoted his victory condition if this is correct. I'll vote for him over Bat, but I don't think we will get a wolf with him.

Of course, Cao is free to correct me if I'm wrong (and should probably do so if town, in order to avoid further confusion).

I don't think I buy this. Not that I think you're evil, but I don't think the logic works. If Cao is survivor, they have extra incentive to not get voted off during the day, which means playing more actively to look like town until the late game. They would in fact benefit by not looking sus. In ToS, D1/2 Surv claims do not typically work out.

That said, I'm okay voting flat (who I do think is being scapegoated, for the record) if we decide Cao isn't a viable wagon. I just don't trust Survivor claims as a general rule, if that's even what's happening here

[gac3]

Fairly decent read on people, I guess? I don't feel the need to jump in to defend myself again, but looking at the rest I mostly agree with your thoughts here.

I'm... not convinced by my own case on flat, and definitely second-guessing myself after the D1 fiasco. I put them slightly south of neutral, but there isn't a ton of incriminating evidence either.

People who voted flat (other than Bat, obviously), why are you voting for him?

I'm open to moving my vote, but I need a good case against anybody else. Why are you voting for Cape?



Despite you starting a wagon there and Kraken hopping on, I'm not sold on moving to Cape yet either. Why do you suspect them? Their lack of posting doesn't look great, but that's not a ton to go on.

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Never mind, looks like gac3 is sticking with flat after all. I'll keep my vote where it is for now then.

I mean I'm not town reading cape.They are very "look at me posting and contributing literally nothing but vote counts and agreements or disagreements with little justification. Don't worry, I'm rules analyzing also" which is a red flag. However the main reason I started to get real paranoid is because the post near the top of this page where I talked about not suspecting Kraken, was a mess. People might not realize it was a mess. In my tiredness though, I had posted about Kraken while thinking of Farmer. So I was comparing Farmer's actions this game to Kraken's actions last game. I then immediately got paranoid that Cape and/or Rogan didn't point this out. However upon further reflection of the post itself, I don't even think my mistake was as clear as it should have been.

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Moral of the story, if Cape looks like a viable lynch before I have to sleep, I'll move back. However I'm more interested in attempting to save Bat who is probably town if Rogan is right than pushing actively for a wagon I won't have the time to push properly.

[3SecondCultist]

Alright, screw it. I am not entirely convinced in flat's guilt, nor am I in Cao's. I'm on the fence, which is not a good place to be this close to EOD, so I'm going to go through the facts from my perspective to see if anything shakes loose.

Things I know (or at least strongly suspect):

• There are at least 2 Evils, possibly 3. We had 3 last game, but see below.
• Neutral roles are in play. Neutrals have been confirmed as being part of the game by Snow's death, and all very likely have a different objective than Town. More than one Neutral means likely 2 Evils.
• BCH has very likely been cursed with silence, probably by Evil. They are likely Town or a Neutral.
• Neither flat nor Cao has posted very often (got a good chuckle out of gac's ISO there) on D2. Either could be Evil. Neither case against them is super convincing, not going to bother with another ISO since there's been no real updates since I posted last.
• Rogan is most likely Town, and claims to have some kind of perception power or inside info. He believes that Cao is Survivor, which sounds like a Neutral role. Kraken doesn't buy the claim, and thinks Cao is Evil.

So we have two potential wagons. Unlike Rogan and Kraken I could theoretically see either flat or Cao as being Evil; Rogan thinks the latter is the Survivor, which could be Neutral. Either way, Cao likely has their own agenda and are not pure Town.

If that is the case, I think it makes more sense to vote CaoimhinTheCape. I am happy to hear more arguments from either Cao or flat at this point though.

---

Here's the present vote count.

CaoimhinTheCape: 3 (Let'sGetKraken, 3SecondCultist, gac3)
BatCatHat: 3 (FarmerBink, flat_footed, Opsimos)
flat_footed: 2 (CaoimhinTheCape, BatCatHat)
Opsimos: 1 (Rogan)

Rogan, are you changing your vote?

Opsimos and Bink, if BCH is telling the truth, will you move off to Cao or flat?

[gac3]

I don't think I see it being super likely having two neutrals in a game this small. That might just be me. Now that there are two other people voting, I'm going to go with Cape and get ready for bed.

[Rogan]

flat

I don't wan't to lynch someone who is no explicit threat, which is true if my neutral read is true.

Flat also was the counter wagon to neutral (unknown to the wolves) last day. So we would get two days worth of wagons to analyse instead of one.

I'll probably be less active for the rest of the day, for RL reasons. I'm sorry.

[gac3]

flat

I don't wan't to lynch someone who is no explicit threat, which is true if my neutral read is true.

Flat also was the counter wagon to neutral (unknown to the wolves) last day. So we would get two days worth of wagons to analyse instead of one.

I'll probably be less active for the rest of the day, for RL reasons. I'm sorry.

Do you really think two neutrals are likely in an eleven person game?

[Rogan]

Do you really think two neutrals are likely in an eleven person game?

Yes, unless there are 3 wolves.
For 2 Wolves, having one potential ally instead of an enemy is better balanced. An 8/2/1 split feels to strongly in favor of town.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Yes, unless there are 3 wolves.
For 2 Wolves, having one potential ally instead of an enemy is better balanced. An 8/2/1 split feels to strongly in favor of town.

We're also assuming there are only two wolves. Staying where I am, there's a whole lot of conjecture that has to line hp for your argument for Cao and I've yet to see any strong arguments for flat. If we're going to get rid of someone, I would rather get rid of someone who is AT BEST neutral instead of either town or wolf.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I've also wanted to add that everything Cao said is true, as far as I can tell. Of course, only the real survivor (assuming there is one) would know the exact wording of the victory condition, but it sounds perfectly in line with the things we already know.

Very true!

For everyone else:
iamcursedpleasedontkillmecanttalkrightnowonlythisv ote

That's his secret message.
It's either a great plot from wolf him, in which case I'd say let him win, or it's true.

So, if everybody could move away the votes for bat at the moment, that would be great. Thanks a lot.

I am incredibly confused, where did you see this "secret message"? Or are you just inferring from the lack of anything in that post?

Caoimhin, who got away with basically not posting Day 1 way too easily, especially from Rogan who is deeply interrogating others. They've posted but only really to steer attention away from themselves and clarify basic rules.

I mean, that is an absolutely fair assessment of me.

I've got my reasons for not suspecting Cao anymore. One of them is, ■ ■■■■■ ■ ■■■■ ■■■ ■■■■. That's a read, going by his posts.
I've also found out something else, but since I would give Intel about someone else, I'm not going to do this even when the player in question probably would not mind.

Okay, let's be open about one thing:
I think I know his role

In my opinion, he hinted pretty heavily at being the Survivor who simply doesn't care at all. He even quoted his victory condition if this is correct. I'll vote for him over Bat, but I don't think we will get a wolf with him.

Of course, Cao is free to correct me if I'm wrong (and should probably do so if town, in order to avoid further confusion).

Aww, you said it out loud! But yeah, I am claiming Survivor and I specifically quoted my win con. Aside from that, I did an early shoutout to the first two seasons of the american Survivor show (set in Borneo and the Australian Outback), I've said a bunch that I don't wanna upset anyone (by accusing Wolves and getting night killed), quoted gac saying I disagreed with his split (since it had only 1 Neutral). So, I've been hinting at it for a long time but, whether or not you believe me is up to you I suppose.

I don't think I buy this. Not that I think you're evil, but I don't think the logic works. If Cao is survivor, they have extra incentive to not get voted off during the day, which means playing more actively to look like town until the late game. They would in fact benefit by not looking sus. In ToS, D1/2 Surv claims do not typically work out.

That said, I'm okay voting flat (who I do think is being scapegoated, for the record) if we decide Cao isn't a viable wagon. I just don't trust Survivor claims as a general rule, if that's even what's happening here

I also have incentive to not be killed at Night from Wolves thinking I'm onto them. I knew I wouldn't look great during the day but at least I'd have a chance to discuss and explain myself over Wolves just deciding I get to lose if I pulled the wrong threads and they thought I was a danger to them. I hadn't planned to officially claim today, but I don't see denying it helping me out at all either.

---

And it looks like I'm now very close to dying overnight! Cool. I do want to point out that my count still has 3 people on BCH so I think we have a 3 way tie at the moment? I think we don't know how ties are resolved, so if nothing changes it'll be interesting at least.

---

Vote Count
flat_footed (3): CaoimhinTheCape, Batcathat, Rogan
Batcathat (3): Farmerbink, flat_footed, Opsimos
Cape (3): Let'sGetKraken, 3SecondCultist, gac3

[Book Wombat]

There are ~4 hours remaining...

[flat_footed]

Actually... Looking back at the post I made that made me paranoid... I think I just really really poorly made that post while half asleep. So slightly less paranoia now. I'll go back to Flatfooted

- - - Updated - - -

For the record, subtract (some) suspicion from Cape and Rogan and make it clear that I am still suspicious of bink.

If Bat's telling the truth, that's one hell of a power we're having to contend with. Checking the list of roles, I'd cautiously say the Moon pathway (Apothecary) is in play? But seeing as Snow's chained path "Prisoner" made her unable to be tracked, it could very well be something else.

Honestly, the votes against me feel pretty thin at this point. Cao already said he didn't care about voting me vs. Bat earlier. Rogan is voting me since I was a wagon yesterday. Bat is voting me since I was the other wagon at the time they made their post.

Gac3 is likely not coming back before the end of day, which kills a possible vote to save me, but my strongest wolf lean remains Farmerbink. I'd rather vote for a player I feel is suspicious, and that I've been saying so more or less, than vote of a semi-claimed role. I'll go back and read through their posts to see if I want to believe the claim, but nothing is popping out at me to deny it.