The Rings of Power: on the river in Tolkien's Second Age of Middle Earth

[KorvinStarmast]

They've deposed the previous king just because he was a friend of elves. Based on what's been shown, this announcement should be met with massive, immediate outcry and backlash. Now, I expect there will be repercussions later, after Miriel has left, but that doesn't make their behavior now any less of a contradiction of of what's been established.

I follow where you are going with this, but I think that the brief scene where Pharazon gets the angry guildsmen to listen to him is a foreshadowing of what happens once the Queen Regent is gone.

Even if there are enough Faithful willing to go along with it, the Kingsmen should be livid.

And maybe behind the scenes Pharazon is advising them to keep it down so that the Queen Regent, unaware of how powerful the objection is, will be over the horizon before the protests begin. That's my prediction.

To top it all off the plan is... Accept volunteers and then set sail in 10 days? You're not going to train them to any level of competence in such a short time. Realistically, this is a suicide mission for anyone whose not already a trained soldier.

Not gonna disagree with that. But we don't know all of the stuff that the sailor guys train for, we only get a few scenes of them doing ship handling. There may be other training that is off screen, or that is common for everyone.

[Psyren]

I'll give you that she tried being less abrasive (after breaking out of prison and immediately breaking into the king's bedchamber, which I still maintain that she should've been executed for), but it was still what amounts to divine intervention that actually got her what she wanted. Not sure if that's better or worse given how absolutely unreasonable it was to expect a foreign queen to just give someone she's known for a couple of days an army to go fight a threat that's a huge distance away that the queen doesn't even have solid proof is even real. Sauron's a big enough deal that you wouldn't just ignore the possibility, but maybe try sending a smaller scouting force first to actually confirm Galadriel's claims before just giving the might of your nation to... basically a stranger.

And then no one in Numenor is shown having any sort of objection to this. It's firmly established that at the very least, a significant part of the population hates elves. They've deposed the previous king just because he was a friend of elves. Based on what's been shown, this announcement should be met with massive, immediate outcry and backlash. Now, I expect there will be repercussions later, after Miriel has left, but that doesn't make their behavior now any less of a contradiction of of what's been established. Even if there are enough Faithful willing to go along with it, the Kingsmen should be livid.

To top it all off the plan is... Accept volunteers and then set sail in 10 days? You're not going to train them to any level of competence in such a short time. Realistically, this is a suicide mission for anyone whose not already a trained soldier.

Well the thing is, this isn't Game of Thrones season 7-8 where a dude on a horse can teleport at the speed of plot. "Send scouts, wait several weeks/months for them to travel hundreds of leagues and report back assuming they even survive, then make army and head back out" is not a particularly sound plan compared to just "make army and head out." If you find the army isn't needed when you get there, great, drinks on the annoying elf. But if your scouts find it's needed, it's likely too late to do much of anything by then, especially when you've already been getting a bunch of premonitions strongly suggesting it very well will be. (Moreover, if you end up having to send word back to Numenor to mobilize every able-bodied adult left in the city, 100 scouts will have much better odds of making it back than 10.)

Also, Galadriel isn't that much of a stranger. They never really doubted the identity she claimed, they just found her abrasive and disrespectful (which she was.) She's still a decorated general.

[Metastachydium]

Well the thing is, this isn't Game of Thrones season 7-8 where a dude on a horse can teleport at the speed of plot. "Send scouts, wait several weeks/months for them to travel hundreds of leagues and report back assuming they even survive, then make army and head back out" is not a particularly sound plan compared to just "make army and head out." If you find the army isn't needed when you get there, great, drinks on the annoying elf. But if your scouts find it's needed, it's likely too late to do much of anything by then, especially when you've already been getting a bunch of premonitions strongly suggesting it very well will be. (Moreover, if you end up having to send word back to Numenor to mobilize every able-bodied adult left in the city, 100 scouts will have much better odds of making it back than 10.)

I'm not sure how "this doesn't run on dumb Easy Logistics" is a proper excuse for dumb Easy Logistics.

[TheSummoner]

I follow where you are going with this, but I think that the brief scene where Pharazon gets the angry guildsmen to listen to him is a foreshadowing of what happens once the Queen Regent is gone.

I agree that there will likely be trouble later and that the scene you mention foreshadows that, but that's not the point I was making. The point is that at the very least, there should be some audible objection to what Miriel is doing. It doesn't have to immediately jump to full blown rebellion, but based there being no push back at all contradicts what has been established about he general opinion the populace has when it comes to elves.

And maybe behind the scenes Pharazon is advising them to keep it down so that the Queen Regent, unaware of how powerful the objection is, will be over the horizon before the protests begin. That's my prediction.

That's your head canon. Pharazon didn't know Miriel was going to give Galadriel an army. MIRIEL didn't know she was going to do it until divine intervention changed her mind.

Not gonna disagree with that. But we don't know all of the stuff that the sailor guys train for, we only get a few scenes of them doing ship handling. There may be other training that is off screen, or that is common for everyone.

Again, head canon. It's good that you can see that these things are problems and can come up with ways they could be resolved. It's bad that the writers didn't and as a result, you have to. Also, not all of the volunteers are sailors. The Numenoreans COULD have regular militia training and this have a baseline level of competence in warfare, but the show hasn't established that. A 5 second shot of them training and an offhand comment from Elendil when Galadriel was getting off the boat in episode 3 would've done that, but that didn't happen. It would've made more sense to just say nothing and run with the assumption that Numenor had a standing army. Not common for the time period, but not impossible and it requires far fewer assumptions to make plausible. But then you wouldn't get Isildur to come along, which is probably the intention. They could've accomplished that by having him be a soldier rather than a sailor, but that's not what the show did.

Well the thing is, this isn't Game of Thrones season 7-8 where a dude on a horse can teleport at the speed of plot. "Send scouts, wait several weeks/months for them to travel hundreds of leagues and report back assuming they even survive, then make army and head back out" is not a particularly sound plan compared to just "make army and head out." If you find the army isn't needed when you get there, great, drinks on the annoying elf. But if your scouts find it's needed, it's likely too late to do much of anything by then, especially when you've already been getting a bunch of premonitions strongly suggesting it very well will be. (Moreover, if you end up having to send word back to Numenor to mobilize every able-bodied adult left in the city, 100 scouts will have much better odds of making it back than 10.)

Also, Galadriel isn't that much of a stranger. They never really doubted the identity she claimed, they just found her abrasive and disrespectful (which she was.) She's still a decorated general.

The only evidence Galadriel has her claim that the southlands are in danger is a report saying that Sauron had a backup plan to turn them into a kingdom of his own if Morgoth fell. This plan is centuries old, and Sauron hasn't acted on it so far as anyone knows. There is no indication that sending an army to intervene is anything urgent and even if it was, the supposed threat is far enough away that it poses no immediate danger to Numenor. The audience knows what's going on with Adar. Galadriel and Miriel do not. "Just make an army and head out" when you don't even know if the enemy exists isn't a sound plan at all, much less a more sound one than doing some reconnaissance. Assume there actually is an enemy (Miriel is making that assumption). Wouldn't they want some intelligence before marching into the middle of enemy territory? They could use the time that the scouts are out scouting to actually train their volunteers to be more than meat shields. And if the scouts do report that it was a false alarm, the disruption caused by having the volunteers train would be far less than immediately mobilizing every able bodied adult in the city.

[KorvinStarmast]

I agree that there will likely be trouble later and that the scene you mention foreshadows that, but that's not the point I was making. The point is that at the very least, there should be some audible objection to what Miriel is doing.

FWIW, when we see the scenes in court everybody seems very deferential to the Queen Regent (Galadriel the Stranger being the notable exception). Maybe they are not in the habit of opposing the King's/Queen's/Queen Regent's desires/will. (With the exception of Tar Palantir's unpopular repentance movement)

contradicts what has been established about he general opinion the populace has when it comes to elves.

Yes, the sudden sea change from Miriel is well out of their norms.

That's your head canon. Pharazon didn't know Miriel was going to give Galadriel an army. MIRIEL didn't know she was going to do it until divine intervention changed her mind.

I'll take it one step further, and, given that Miriel's dad abdicated due to a rejection of his "let's make things right with the elves and the Valar," we'll see how he's been feathering his nest for years, waiting for the chance to make his move when dear old dad dies. Which is coming, doubtless a few days after Miriel sets sail.

For Pharazon, as soon as "one elf" shows up he's seen his chance to drive a wedge between the people and their current sovereign.

I think your larger point is spot on: I am filling in the blanks due to my familiarity with the books, and the writers have left holes big enough to drive a few ships through in terms of missing connective tissue - folks who are not as book-familiar will not be able to intuit the connections. Maybe they save it all for a reveal or a flashback?

But then you wouldn't get Isildur to come along, which is probably the intention. They could've accomplished that by having him be a soldier rather than a sailor, but that's not what the show did.

I find their choice to make Isildur into a whinging {censored} to add salt to that wound. He slacks off in his training, he gets himself thrown out along with his friends, and now he gets to volunteer to clean the stain of dishonor off of his face. (At least his dad seems pleased enough). But clunky writing, yes. And no consequences for being a {censored}

As to your longer bit in re the army and heading west into the unknown:
According to the show, does Numenor even have havens, forts, and outposts in Middle Earth?
Un-shown by the writers (in the books the've been exacting resources and tribute for centuries) other than the "low man" references to Halbrand in the city. We know the Numenoreans look down on the lesser folk of Middle Earth. But again, holes big enough to drive a ship through. We should have been shown that connection, even if it was only ships laden with wheat, apples, potash, coal, ore, in the port ...

[warty goblin]

I donno, I thought the show was really pretty straight forward as to what was going on.

Galadriel changes approach and convinces the queen that she should send the army. The queen doesn't think she can mobilize the army because of the political history, but by the end of the Palantir scene she pretty clearly thinks its the right thing to do.

Then the blossoms fall, and the queen uses that opportunity to launch something of an expedition by using national sentiment. This is still framed as escorting a prisoner, so it isn't seen as making nice with the elves, and only uses volunteers so it's less risky than ordering a general mobilization.

I'm not really seeing a lot in the way of gaping plot holes there.

Though the whole Galadriel jail break thing is legit dumb, and a very unforced error. They could have gotten her to see the queen again by just having the queen send for her, and set that up by having Galadriel appear in the opening vision.

[Palanan]

Originally Posted by warty goblin
Though the whole Galadriel jail break thing is legit dumb, and a very unforced error.

Yeah...about that.

Spoiler: Guards

Show

As near as I can tell, Galadriel gives one guard a shove, and the next two just sort of hurry into the cell on their own, and then she pushes the fourth one in and closes the gate.

Not only is it ridiculous, it’s laughably choreographed, as if the director told the guards, “Just go wherever she pushes you, and for gosh sakes don’t put up a fight!!”

Also, do those gates have self-locking mechanisms? Otherwise I’m not sure how it’s suddenly locked when she doesn’t seem to be turning any keys.

[Psyren]

There is no indication that sending an army to intervene is anything urgent

You mean besides the prophetic dreams? Or the magic tree? Or the meteor?

and even if it was, the supposed threat is far enough away that it poses no immediate danger to Numenor. The audience knows what's going on with Adar. Galadriel and Miriel do not.

They've fought this kind of Foe before. They know this is a global threat, if true. It's at least worth checking out in force.

"Just make an army and head out" when you don't even know if the enemy exists isn't a sound plan at all, much less a more sound one than doing some reconnaissance. Assume there actually is an enemy (Miriel is making that assumption). Wouldn't they want some intelligence before marching into the middle of enemy territory? They could use the time that the scouts are out scouting to actually train their volunteers to be more than meat shields. And if the scouts do report that it was a false alarm, the disruption caused by having the volunteers train would be far less than immediately mobilizing every able bodied adult in the city.

Recon is a good idea if there's time for it. The portents are yelling there isn't. It's that simple.

[pendell]

I wanted to observe that a pack of untrained volunteers beating an organized force has precedent in these stories; so far as I can tell the Feanorian army which left Valinor had exactly ONE "battle" against the lightly armed Teleri before being thrown into action against Morgoth's finest. They nonetheless curbstomped the attackers.

I suspect part of the reason is we're dealing with elves, who as immortals may remember their combat training from before the migration to Valinor. Certainly they don't behave like green troops in their first engagement.

Possibly we're seeing a similar effect; Numenoreans live for centuries , which is less than the elvish life span but still much, much longer than that of ordinary people. So these volunteers may have both centuries of military experience and fought together before. Perhaps they're the equivalent of the Numenorean special forces community, where the operators have all known and fought alongside each other for decades. It doesn't seem likely these volunteers would be farmers fresh from the fields who don't know which end of a sword is the pointy end; that'd be a recipe for murder.

Also, it may be that we're not seeing scouts sent because there aren't that many episodes left and they're cutting any extemporaneous detail that they don't absolutely need. Scouting and training/equipping are something any real military expedition would do, but the general audience might not appreciate it.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

[ecarden]

Is there some reason we are assuming they are all untrained? Lots of societies required participation in militias or expect all adult men to be warriors.

[TheSummoner]

You mean besides the prophetic dreams? Or the magic tree? Or the meteor?
[...]
Recon is a good idea if there's time for it. The portents are yelling there isn't. It's that simple.

The portents are that Numenor is doomed to be swallowed by the sea and that the Valar do not want Galadriel sent away. Anything beyond that is vague, open to several possible interpretations, and has nothing indicating the southlands or Sauron specifically. We might just have to agree to disagree on this one.

They've fought this kind of Foe before. They know this is a global threat, if true. It's at least worth checking out in force.

It's worth investigating, certainly. Walking in blind is just a good way to get that force destroyed, however. The show seems like it's going to run off, as Metastachydium put it, dumb easy logistics, however, so I doubt there will be any problem with sending in a force of volunteers with at most 10 days of training and no intel. It's madman logic, but that's my prediction.

Is there some reason we are assuming they are all untrained? Lots of societies required participation in militias or expect all adult men to be warriors.

Because when information is unknown, it's best to make the fewest number of assumptions possible. If it was just the decision to give Galadriel an army, then the fewest assumptions possible would be that Numenor had a standing army and logically they'd be trained, professional soldiers. However, they specifically went looking for volunteers. That means the army is being drawn from the general population. It has not been shown, stated, or otherwise implied that Numenor requires its citizens to undergo militia training, so it shouldn't be assumed that it does. What lots of societies did historically doesn't matter if there's no evidence given in the show that the same applies to Numenor.

Also, it may be that we're not seeing scouts sent because there aren't that many episodes left and they're cutting any extemporaneous detail that they don't absolutely need. Scouting and training/equipping are something any real military expedition would do, but the general audience might not appreciate it.

The entire thing could be glossed over in maybe 5 minutes. Given how much of what's been been shown could've been cut without affecting the plot, they could've easily spared that much time.

[KorvinStarmast]

Also, it may be that we're not seeing scouts sent because there aren't that many episodes left and they're cutting any extemporaneous detail that they don't absolutely need. Scouting and training/equipping are something any real military expedition would do, but the general audience might not appreciate it.

Scouts out! Yeah, with only 8 episodes a lot is left out.

[ecarden]

Because when information is unknown, it's best to make the fewest number of assumptions possible. If it was just the decision to give Galadriel an army, then the fewest assumptions possible would be that Numenor had a standing army and logically they'd be trained, professional soldiers. However, they specifically went looking for volunteers. That means the army is being drawn from the general population. It has not been shown, stated, or otherwise implied that Numenor requires its citizens to undergo militia training, so it shouldn't be assumed that it does. What lots of societies did historically doesn't matter if there's no evidence given in the show that the same applies to Numenor.

I disagree that it is best to make assumptions which cause the story to be stupid, rather than equally valid ones which cause it not to be stupid.

More broadly, I'm not sure where the general belief that they're going directly into battle is coming from? My assumption is that they're going to the Southlands, which are very definitely not conquered territory yet. They have a powerful navy, which can presumably supply them from sea. Traveling to the country you're seeking to do battle in and then scouting is not poor strategy.

[KorvinStarmast]

More broadly, I'm not sure where the general belief that they're going directly into battle is coming from? My assumption is that they're going to the Southlands, which are very definitely not conquered territory yet. They have a powerful navy, which can presumably supply them from sea. Traveling to the country you're seeking to do battle in and then scouting is not poor strategy.

There is a term of military art that covers this: reconnaissance in force.

[Wintermoot]

I disagree that it is best to make assumptions which cause the story to be stupid, rather than equally valid ones which cause it not to be stupid.

I feel like this sums up my feelings about a lot of criticism that I see about this show on this forum.

[TheSummoner]

I disagree that it is best to make assumptions which cause the story to be stupid, rather than equally valid ones which cause it not to be stupid.

But I'm not making assumptions, I am minimizing them. I am saying that the show has given no indication that the volunteer force they are recruiting has any form of existing training. If you can point to a line of dialogue that I may have missed or scene that would indicate otherwise, then I'll withdraw that point of criticism. What is established is that the volunteers are being drawn from the general population and no assumptions need to be made to say that your average citizen has no military training. Only by saying that they do, do you have to make assumptions about Numenor having mandatory militia training or whatnot to justify it. I could likewise make the claim that Galadriel's plan at the end of the first episode when she jumped into the ocean was to transform into a bird and fly to shore, but that wouldn't be a valid interpretation of the scene because there is nothing that has been shown to justify it.

If that cause the story to be stupid, then that's a failing on the part of the writers. It's their job to tell the story, not the audience's to invent head canon justification for things that don't make sense.

More broadly, I'm not sure where the general belief that they're going directly into battle is coming from? My assumption is that they're going to the Southlands, which are very definitely not conquered territory yet. They have a powerful navy, which can presumably supply them from sea. Traveling to the country you're seeking to do battle in and then scouting is not poor strategy.

I think that's more something coming from the general value of scouting than anyone believing they'll make landfall and then it'll be immediate battle. The original point about sending scouts is that Miriel doesn't have proof that there even is a threat in the southlands.

[KorvinStarmast]

The entire thing could be glossed over in maybe 5 minutes. Given how much of what's been been shown could've been cut without affecting the plot, they could've easily spared that much time.

This is where the pacing and exposition see to me to have a disconnect. How long did they spend on that horse ride? How many extra seconds of people staring at one another just a bit too long (it adds up).

I realized that these are artistic choices, but they also have a time compression issue that is very awkwardly resolved, if at all. (I refer to the issue of the three rings being forged by Celebrimbor and Sauron coming to him in eregion, before Sauron's assault on Eregion and Eriador, over a dozen centuries before Isildur was even a twinkle in Elendil's eye).
At some point I hope that the time line and time compression makes sense. Currently, it's a muddle.

[ecarden]

But I'm not making assumptions, I am minimizing them.

I mean...yes, you are. We have no evidence regarding Numenor's military beyond the guards we see and the Sea Guard. I assume that adults (maybe limited to free adult guild members, maybe not) are expected to serve, or be prepared to serve. You assume that they don't and instead are preparing to send a bunch of untrained (and presumably unequipped?) people into combat in ten days. Both of those are assumption.

I am saying that the show has given no indication that the volunteer force they are recruiting has any form of existing training. If you can point to a line of dialogue that I may have missed or scene that would indicate otherwise, then I'll withdraw that point of criticism. What is established is that the volunteers are being drawn from the general population and no assumptions need to be made to say that your average citizen has no military training. Only by saying that they do, do you have to make assumptions about Numenor having mandatory militia training or whatnot to justify it.

Again, no. There's nothing on screen regarding their level of training. Assuming it's 0 is exactly as much an assumption as assuming it's an hour every evening.

I I could likewise make the claim that Galadriel's plan at the end of the first episode when she jumped into the ocean was to transform into a bird and fly to shore, but that wouldn't be a valid interpretation of the scene because there is nothing that has been shown to justify it.

I mean, that would actually be contrary to what we see. It appears her 'plan' was to swim back to shore. This may be a dumb plan. Or a suicidal plan. But we don't actually know. We don't know either how far it is to shore, or how far she can swim. I think it's intended to be a somewhat suicidally determined plan, which may be overestimating her own capabilities, but I don't think any assumption is needed to see what her plan is. It's to do exactly what she does. Swim.

If that cause the story to be stupid, then that's a failing on the part of the writers. It's their job to tell the story, not the audience's to invent head canon justification for things that don't make sense.

And it's not on the writers if people headcanon up things to be pissed about, then exclaim that it hasn't been addressed. This storyline at the halfway point ends with people volunteering to fight. There is no need to explain 'as you're all in the militia, you can all fight, so who's volunteering'. To the extent it needs to be addressed (it doesn't in my view) the right place to do that is not when you're going for the awesome 'yes, we volunteer to serve' moment.

I think that's more something coming from the general value of scouting than anyone believing they'll make landfall and then it'll be immediate battle. The original point about sending scouts is that Miriel doesn't have proof that there even is a threat in the southlands.

I think you're radically underweighting the portents and the testimony of Galadriel (though she doesn't have first hand knowledge). But more critically, scouting at the expected distance in question is mostly a waste of time. By the time news gets back to you, the situation will have changed too much for that information to be significantly helpful. Besides, half the purpose of the trip is to get rid of Galadriel and it's not honestly clear to me that Miriel could have sent any serious force to the Southlands by any mechanism except the one she chose, personally going and basically daring her people to abandon her.

[TheSummoner]

I mean...yes, you are. We have no evidence regarding Numenor's military beyond the guards we see and the Sea Guard. I assume that adults (maybe limited to free adult guild members, maybe not) are expected to serve, or be prepared to serve. You assume that they don't and instead are preparing to send a bunch of untrained (and presumably unequipped?) people into combat in ten days. Both of those are assumption.

Again, no. There's nothing on screen regarding their level of training. Assuming it's 0 is exactly as much an assumption as assuming it's an hour every evening.

There is nothing on screen regarding their level of training, therefore their level of training does not exist. You inventing something that is not shown. I am saying that it was not shown and therefore I will not assume it is there anyways. I conclude based on what has up until this point been shown that they are preparing to send a bunch of untrained people into combat in ten days. Maybe there will be a conversation in the beginning of episode five that will indicate otherwise. If there is, then it would've been better to indicate otherwise earlier, but it would still solve the issue.

The reason I'm being such a stickler on this point is that the writers specifically chose to have it be a volunteer force. They didn't have to write that in, they chose to. If they had left out any mention of recruiting volunteers, it would've just been Miriel gives Galadrial an army, ergo Numenor has an army for Miriel to give, armies are made up of soldiers, soldiers are trained to fight. No assumptions, and anything that isn't directly spelled out for the audience is something that can be intuited from real world common knowledge without having to go outside of the norm.

When instead, it's volunteers drawn from the citizenry, then the norm for your average citizen is no military training. If they are outside that norm, then there needs to be a reason for why they are and the show hasn't provided one. There COULD be a militia that every citizen is a part of, but without in-series evidence, that's just making assumptions.

And it's not on the writers if people headcanon up things to be pissed about, then exclaim that it hasn't been addressed. This storyline at the halfway point ends with people volunteering to fight. There is no need to explain 'as you're all in the militia, you can all fight, so who's volunteering'. To the extent it needs to be addressed (it doesn't in my view) the right place to do that is not when you're going for the awesome 'yes, we volunteer to serve' moment.

Firstly, for it to be headcanon, I would have to be inventing things that are not on screen. I am specifically doing the opposite of that.

Secondly, the "awesome 'yes, we volunteer to serve' moment" is exactly the sort of thing that has come up repeatedly with the writing that I've criticized before. It seems like the writers come up with scenes that or lines of dialogue that they think will be cool and then doing whatever needs to be done to set it up with no consideration for whether it makes any sense. Looking back an episode, the writers wanted to have an "awesome, 'I will cut down the tree' moment, so despite the area surrounding the trench being completely deforested on either side stretching as far back as we could see, that one solitary tree was left exactly in the path of the trench and they wanted to have an "awesome, 'Arondir cuts the cloth and exposes the orcs to light' moment so they had the orcs work on a massive trench exposed to the surface and covered in cloth instead of more logically having them be digging a tunnel entirely underground or just moving around at night under cover of dark. Comparatively, the volunteers are a minor issue (and one that could've been solved by either not having them be volunteers or drawing the volunteers from the army rather than the citizenry), but it's still a logical flaw in the writing and something I would expect better than from a show with a roughly $50 million per episode budget.

[ecarden]

I started writing out a lengthy response, but I think I'll just quote our host: "Rather than making assumptions that don't fit with the text and then complaining about the text being wrong, why not just choose different assumptions that DO fit with the text?"

The text transparently wants you to believe that the Queen Regent, Galadriel and the Chancellor are competent in this arena and the method they have chosen is to call for volunteers. They, knowing the capabilities of their people and their enemy, believe this is the correct course of action. You disagree based on your guess about facts neither of us do know, but they would know. So, I'm going to stick with the version that follows their character and the story that is clearly being told.

To turn briefly to the tree cutting example, well, if you look at the scene, the tree in question is far larger than those which have been chopped down, but more crucially, none of those trees have their roots removed, which is the actual problem. They've been chopped down, or burnt, which wouldn't solve the problem of the roots blocking the trench. Cutting down the tree is a lot of work, for no benefit which the smaller surrounding trees could not provide. Now, could the orcs have gone around it? Sure, that's expressly pointed out in the scene in question. They don't want to go around it. They want to make the elves chop it down.

So, my assumption is that some trees were burnt for wanton destruction, some harvested for timber to support the tunnel and this one left behind because it was too much trouble to do anything with given its size. When they had elven prisoners, they aimed the tunnel for it, to make them cut it down, because they're torturing *******s.

I'll return to where I started: "Rather than making assumptions that don't fit with the text and then complaining about the text being wrong, why not just choose different assumptions that DO fit with the text?"

[pendell]

There is nothing on screen regarding their level of training, therefore their level of training does not exist. You inventing something that is not shown.

I don't think this is fair.

Consider the Roman Republic -- or any ancient civilization save Sparta, for that matter. Before the Marian reforms , the Roman Legions were simply the citizens of the Republic in arms. There was no distinction between "soldier" and "civilian" -- any male of age was expected to be able to fight. That's why two hours of longbow practice per week was compulsory in England for all males of fighting age.

The pattern held elsewhere in the ancient world. There would be a very small cadre of professional soldiers, champions-at-arms who would serve as the monarch's bodyguard. We're talking a few dozen people. The remaining troops would be farmers, smiths, whatever. In the age before specialization, fighting was just a chore you had to do, same as ploughing or sowing or reaping. It's also why empires were rare -- when your army has to go back home for harvest, it puts a limit on how long you can keep them in the field.

I think it's fair to say this pattern holds in Middle-Earth as seen in the books. It's the situation with the Rohirrim, it's the situation in the Shire, and in Gondor. In the Silmarillion professional soldiers such as Hurin are still few and far between, not entire organized bodies of professional armies.

So I think it's entirely reasonable that average Numenorean citizens would be expected to fight on call. They wouldn't be as skilled as professional soldiers, which is why that Marian reforms happened in our world to begin with, but they'd expect to be fighting other amateurs as well, so it evens out.

Mind, in the books the Numenoreans appear to be an empire like the late Roman version and have professional soldiers -- but when they send aid they send professional armies, not random volunteers. The showrunners, however, have decided to with an early Republic form of military rather than late-Empire, possibly due to the need for time compression.


Respectfully,

Brian P.

[Psyren]

The portents are that Numenor is doomed to be swallowed by the sea and that the Valar do not want Galadriel sent away. Anything beyond that is vague, open to several possible interpretations, and has nothing indicating the southlands or Sauron specifically. We might just have to agree to disagree on this one.

Done.

It's worth investigating, certainly. Walking in blind is just a good way to get that force destroyed, however.

So is waiting too long.

Because when information is unknown, it's best to make the fewest number of assumptions possible.

How is "we can send a few guys and they will not only make it there and back alive, but do so in time for us to react to their intel" not multiple assumptions?

[diplomancer]

I don't think this is fair.

Consider the Roman Republic -- or any ancient civilization save Sparta, for that matter. Before the Marian reforms , the Roman Legions were simply the citizens of the Republic in arms. There was no distinction between "soldier" and "civilian" -- any male of age was expected to be able to fight. That's why two hours of longbow practice per week was compulsory in England for all males of fighting age.

The pattern held elsewhere in the ancient world. There would be a very small cadre of professional soldiers, champions-at-arms who would serve as the monarch's bodyguard. We're talking a few dozen people. The remaining troops would be farmers, smiths, whatever. In the age before specialization, fighting was just a chore you had to do, same as ploughing or sowing or reaping. It's also why empires were rare -- when your army has to go back home for harvest, it puts a limit on how long you can keep them in the field.

I think it's fair to say this pattern holds in Middle-Earth as seen in the books. It's the situation with the Rohirrim, it's the situation in the Shire, and in Gondor. In the Silmarillion professional soldiers such as Hurin are still few and far between, not entire organized bodies of professional armies.

So I think it's entirely reasonable that average Numenorean citizens would be expected to fight on call. They wouldn't be as skilled as professional soldiers, which is why that Marian reforms happened in our world to begin with, but they'd expect to be fighting other amateurs as well, so it evens out.

Mind, in the books the Numenoreans appear to be an empire like the late Roman version and have professional soldiers -- but when they send aid they send professional armies, not random volunteers. The showrunners, however, have decided to with an early Republic form of military rather than late-Empire, possibly due to the need for time compression.


Respectfully,

Brian P.

True. And those ancient civilizations did that for security purposes. Númenor simply does not have that incentive. It's an island in the middle of the ocean, with the most powerful navy in the world. The only invasion they'd have to fear is from Tol Eressea, since, as far as we know, they're the only ones to even have the technology to reach Númenor; but Numenoreans would have to achieve a high state of paranoia to be concerned about that.

No, a "citizen's militia" feels very out-of-place here.

[TheSummoner]

So is waiting too long.

They have NO EVIDENCE that a threat in the Southlands even exists. The informationMiriel has is: Numenor is doomed, Galadriel says Sauron is up to something in the southlands, the Valar say sending Galadriel away is a bad idea. None of this suggests that whatever may be in the Southlands is such an existential threat to Numenor that there's no time to look into it before recruiting an army of volunteers and setting off. This argument about waiting too long is ridiculous on its face.

Further, Miriel believes that Numenor can only fall from within. How she knows that is another case of characters knowing things they have no evidence for, but she states as much in the episode. Based on this stated belief, the true threat is internal. It's all the more reason that running off on a wild goose chase based on vague premonitions and taking the portion of the population who are presumably loyal to you/friends of the elves with is a reckless and stupid idea.

How is "we can send a few guys and they will not only make it there and back alive, but do so in time for us to react to their intel" not multiple assumptions?

First, the fewest assumptions possible was in relation to the audience making assumptions about the world being shown. Second, a character don't have to make any assumptions about the outcome of reconnaissance for it to be the best course of action. Third, sending scouts is precisely how a character would get more information and thus not need to make as many assumptions.

[KorvinStarmast]

I mean, that would actually be contrary to what we see. It appears her 'plan' was to swim back to shore. This may be a dumb plan. Or a suicidal plan.

Given that it was High King Gil Galad who sent her West, it is borderline treason/sedition for her to swim back.

I think you're radically underweighting the portents and the testimony of Galadriel (though she doesn't have first hand knowledge).

But that's the problem. Elves are persona non grata, and she has to rely on people taking her at her word - she may be right but she's in the same position as Gandalf Stormcrow arriving in Edoras, with less credibility and less welcome.

Besides, half the purpose of the trip is to get rid of Galadriel and it's not honestly clear to me that Miriel could have sent any serious force to the Southlands by any mechanism except the one she chose, personally going and basically daring her people to abandon her.

She's doing one of those "lead by example" things that usually increases the esteem one is held in.

The text transparently wants you to believe that the Queen Regent, Galadriel and the Chancellor are competent in this arena and the method they have chosen is to call for volunteers.

Perhaps. On the other hand Tolkien's stories, all of them, are embedded with people making bad choices. Feanor. Turin. Thingol (as regards mounting the silmaril in that neclace). The Kin Strife in Gondor. Earnur going to single combat with the witch king. Frodo taking too long to leave the Shire. Theoden trusting Grima. Boromir trying to get at the Ring. Denethor peering too often into the Palantir. The list goes on.

When they had elven prisoners, they aimed the tunnel for it, to make them cut it down, because they're torturing *******s.

Yes, I'll get on board that bandwagon. Sadistic, these orcs seem to be.

It's an island in the middle of the ocean, with the most powerful navy in the world.
No, a "citizen's militia" feels very out-of-place here.

Concur.

The information Miriel has is: Numenor is doomed, Galadriel says Sauron is up to something in the southlands, the Valar say sending Galadriel away is a bad idea.

Uh, is that because of the leaves falling, or are you referring to High King Gil Galad kicking her upstairs to Valinor?

Further, Miriel believes that Numenor can only fall from within. How she knows that is another case of characters knowing things they have no evidence for, but she states as much in the episode. Based on this stated belief, the true threat is internal. It's all the more reason that running off on a wild goose chase based on vague premonitions and taking the portion of the population who are presumably loyal to you/friends of the elves with is a reckless and stupid idea.

As I noted above, Tolkien's books and stories are filled with characters making poor decisions. In this case - since I know that Pharazon is the Usurper thanks to me having read the various books - I see that the writers are capturing that Grand Theme successfully, if perhaps inelegantly.

One other thing that Miriel's decision provides for: it allows us to see on screen that she's been one of the Faithful all along. She'll be able to interact with Galadriel away from the prying eyes at Court.

[Sapphire Guard]

I imagine they're going to cull the volunteers. Isildur is good candidate because he's essentially a navy cadet, almost certainly has relevant training. People with brittle bone disease get the desk jobs, tradespeople like smiths or farriers get to do their trades for the army, people who can read get to be clerks and so on.

Although there was a cavalry charge in the trailer, so we'll see. Would be rather awkward if Adar wasn't there and they just sent a massive colonising army immediately after the elvers withdrew.

This requires only the assumption that Numenor is vaguely competent, which is my stock assumption for all media I watch. The characters know more about their world than we do.

[Psyren]

They have NO EVIDENCE that a threat in the Southlands even exists.

But they do. You keep saying they don't have anything, but you're wrong. Galadriel's eyewitness account of orc signposts is evidence, and the timing of her warnings alongside all the portents they're receiving is too much to be coincidence. Metaphysical evidence is still evidence, particularly in a world like the one they inhabit. Miriel might have been skeptical, and she might not be very fond of the messenger, but Galadriel is far from a rando - they know who she is, they know who her father is, and most importantly, what else could the warnings be pointing to if not this?

First, the fewest assumptions possible was in relation to the audience making assumptions about the world being shown. Second, a character don't have to make any assumptions about the outcome of reconnaissance for it to be the best course of action. Third, sending scouts is precisely how a character would get more information and thus not need to make as many assumptions.

You're still refusing to engage with even the possibility that waiting for recon that may not even survive what it finds could be impractical so let's drop it.

[pendell]

True. And those ancient civilizations did that for security purposes. Númenor simply does not have that incentive. It's an island in the middle of the ocean, with the most powerful navy in the world. The only invasion they'd have to fear is from Tol Eressea, since, as far as we know, they're the only ones to even have the technology to reach Númenor; but Numenoreans would have to achieve a high state of paranoia to be concerned about that.

No, a "citizen's militia" feels very out-of-place here.

Even more incentive to rely on a citizen's militia rather than a highly paid professional army which will have nobody to march against and nothing to do on the island except cost money. The UK is also an island off the coast of a continent, and it's army was a joke for centuries while the navy was best in the world.

If a citizen's militia is out of place, it's because Numenor is in the books supposed to be the equivalent of the Augustan-age Roman Empire with the military and economic infrastructure implied by a conquering military force with far flung colonies subsisting on tribute from subject peoples. That would necessitate a professional army, but that doesn't seem to exist at all in the show.

Or .. here's a thought .. maybe there IS an army but it's dominated by the King's Men, which is why Tar-Miriel doesn't want to use it? If so, leaving her kingdom with a volunteer force while the real army under the command of her political adversaries stays on the islands seems a ... questionable choice.

Respectfully,

Brian P.

[Tyndmyr]

I disagree that it is best to make assumptions which cause the story to be stupid, rather than equally valid ones which cause it not to be stupid.

More broadly, I'm not sure where the general belief that they're going directly into battle is coming from? My assumption is that they're going to the Southlands, which are very definitely not conquered territory yet. They have a powerful navy, which can presumably supply them from sea. Traveling to the country you're seeking to do battle in and then scouting is not poor strategy.

What we see of the society is that they have a fairly strict work system. Gotta be part of a guild or get an appointment to join the navy. Every job we see appears to be fairly rigidly controlled.

That is the sort of society for which professional soldiers make sense, and they *do* have a city guard which probably is trained. It doesn't really fit as a "oh, everybody does a bit of everything, including fighting" society, especially because we are given no indication of that. The lads, in particular, surely seem to be untrained as warriors.

We are not inventing assumptions, we are pointing out that the actual information we are given makes the story weak.

This is where the pacing and exposition see to me to have a disconnect. How long did they spend on that horse ride? How many extra seconds of people staring at one another just a bit too long (it adds up).

Yeah, that bugs me. The horse ride was just weird and gratuitous. Slow-mo/lingering shots of that style generally have very specific uses, often for moments of extreme importance. Or for very rapid things that would otherwise go unseen, but that the audience needs to know. Nothing that fits this scene. It's just...lacking in purpose.

I mean, that would actually be contrary to what we see. It appears her 'plan' was to swim back to shore. This may be a dumb plan. Or a suicidal plan. But we don't actually know. We don't know either how far it is to shore, or how far she can swim. I think it's intended to be a somewhat suicidally determined plan, which may be overestimating her own capabilities, but I don't think any assumption is needed to see what her plan is. It's to do exactly what she does. Swim.

Galadriel herself tells the Numenorians that they saved her from certain death.

I feel safe saying that her plan is unfortunately portrayed as dumb. This was probably not the writers intent, but the information given to the viewers surely paints a clear picture.

The same is true with the calling for volunteers, and taking on young lads lacking in other prospects, rather than sending the city guard, who we see fight. This is a light force, and not one specialized in combat, that much is clear.

I would not object to Numenor having an army, but from what we are shown, it appears they either do not, or wish to reserve it for other purposes. I don't think sending them is a bad idea for Numenor, but I do think the way that we got to sending them was needlessly painful. The prison breakout into the kings bedchamber is the sort of thing that gets one killed, not an army.

Further, Miriel believes that Numenor can only fall from within. How she knows that is another case of characters knowing things they have no evidence for, but she states as much in the episode. Based on this stated belief, the true threat is internal. It's all the more reason that running off on a wild goose chase based on vague premonitions and taking the portion of the population who are presumably loyal to you/friends of the elves with is a reckless and stupid idea.

This will almost certainly turn out to be correct with the populist advisor staging an uprising or the like. There's way too much foreshadowing for that to be anything else.

My only real quibble with the volunteers is how fast we went from "everyone hates elves" to "everyone will gleefully follow an elf and volunteer to fight and probably die for her." It's not a training problem, it's an issue of motivations.

[warty goblin]

The show is halfway through one season, the Numenorean Expeditionary Force plotline has barely begun. I think it's preemptive to say it's ignoring anything; for all we know sending a hasty volunteer force into unknown danger doesn't go well and this is a plot point. Sure would be a good way for Pharazon to get a lot of power and influence, showing up and kicking ass with the regular army when the NEF gets in over its head.

But let's suppose that everything goes perfectly smoothly and the NEF kicks orc ass from here to Rhun. Thus is entirely in keeping with the series, which ignores military training all the time, because its epic fantasy and epic fantasy in the traditional mold does not care about this sort of dumb background detail.

To wit, Frodo and the other Hobbits set off on a very difficult multiple month wilderness expedition having gone day camping a couple times. Nobody dies of dysentery, breaks an ankle, suffers sunstroke, or any other major issues until Mordor, where there simply is no drinking water.

In the realm of combat, all the Hobbits kill multiple orcs throughout the series, and their entire martial instruction is basically "here's some swords." Pippin, who tops out at like four feet, kills a roided up super troll in the books. During the Scouring of the Shire, a completely untrained Hobbit militia bests Saurman's force of violent thugs in open fighting, despite huge differences in size and familiarity with violence. Arguably the entire Silmarillion more or less opens this way, when the Noldor, whose entire combat experience in all of ever is stabbing some unarmed people and stealing their boats, show up beat and the ever-loving snot out if Morgoth's armies, only failing because they are kicking so much butt they massively over extend.

In the movies Merry kills several full sized Haradrim and orc warriors, which would make Boromir the most efficient contact instructor in history. Sam bests at least two goblins in Moria using a frying pan.

Now maybe you really dislike these gaping awful plot holes in the books and movies, I can't say. But the TV show isn't doing anything new in ignoring military training, it's not something that the series, or fantasy adventure in general, has ever cared a lot about. Nor has the audience; when I watched Return of the King in theaters, the audience cheered when Sam hacked through like three orcs in Cirith Ungol, even though the films never showed Sam learning how to fight multiple larger enemies at once in the local Hobbit dojo. Apparently this flagrant plot hole and violation of narrative logic did not bother anybody.