Is the sunk cost fallacy always a fallacy?

[brian 333]

My impression is that he only mentioned the part about TDO creating a better world for goblins after Durkon told him the gods were ready to destroy the world. Before that point, he had not considered what might happen if his actions lead to the world ending.

[hroþila]

My impression is that he only mentioned the part about TDO creating a better world for goblins after Durkon told him the gods were ready to destroy the world. Before that point, he had not considered what might happen if his actions lead to the world ending.

In SoD

Spoiler

Show

Redcloak and Right-Eye discuss what would happen if the gods destroy the world, and Redcloak says that in that case the Dark One would get to participate in the creation of the new world, making it more fair to goblinoids.

So yes, he had considered it before talking to Durkon, and he's considered it an acceptable outcome since the very beginning.

[brian 333]

In SoD

Spoiler

Show

Redcloak and Right-Eye discuss what would happen if the gods destroy the world, and Redcloak says that in that case the Dark One would get to participate in the creation of the new world, making it more fair to goblinoids.

So yes, he had considered it before talking to Durkon, and he's considered it an acceptable outcome since the very beginning.

New information for me. I will have to revise my position on this subject.

[Coppercloud]

In SoD

Spoiler

Show

Redcloak and Right-Eye discuss what would happen if the gods destroy the world, and Redcloak says that in that case the Dark One would get to participate in the creation of the new world, making it more fair to goblinoids.

So yes, he had considered it before talking to Durkon, and he's considered it an acceptable outcome since the very beginning.

Minor nitpick: if memory serves, this discussion was about the potential annihilation of the world by the Snarl. If this comic is to be believed (which might be debatable), direct divine destruction didn't cross his mind in the intervening 30+ years.

[Fyraltari]

Minor nitpick: if memory serves, this discussion was about the potential annihilation of the world by the Snarl. If this comic is to be believed (which might be debatable), direct divine destruction didn't cross his mind in the intervening 30+ years.

True, but the difference is not relevant to his reasonning.

[hroþila]

But to be fair, if it was, it wouldn't have been nitpicking

Just picking

[Coppercloud]

True, but the difference is not relevant to his reasoning.

It is relevant insofar as Redcloak had considered three possible results from his actions: he wins and the Dark One gets to blackmail the other gods, he loses and the Plan might be able to continue if the Crimson Mantle isn't destroyed, or he dooms this world by releasing the Snarl. He didn't know the gods would be willing and able to destroy the world themselves in order to protect their home planes from him. That makes the main goal of the Plan unfeasible (unless he is somehow able to take three whole pantheons by surprise, which I very much doubt).

But to be fair, if it was, it wouldn't have been nitpicking

That too. I'm slowly becoming a true forum member, apparently, the other half being derailing threads. As an aside, I was able to add alliterative appeal (which can be complicated when combined with Xykonspeech).

[Dasick]

Again, irrelevant.

If the outcome is known and you bet into a hand you are going to lose, you are going to lose anyway, so the additional bet is wasted in any case. There is no ambiguity, maybe, might strategy in play here.

Redcloak knows his strategy is a losing strategy.

"Enemy that you severely outclass shows up with new information that makes your plan a bad plan" isn't exactly the same as knowing something.

Actually whether we know anything at all is a major point of philosophy; supposedly knowing how little one knows makes one wise.

Redcloack doesn't really have much of a reason to trust Durkon. There's aspects of that meeting which lend credence to what Durkon is saying, but the idea that the gods are ready to punt the world into the trashcan has been a difficult pill to swallow to everyone who had much better evidence of it.

[brian 333]

"Enemy that you severely outclass shows up with new information that makes your plan a bad plan" isn't exactly the same as knowing something.

Actually whether we know anything at all is a major point of philosophy; supposedly knowing how little one knows makes one wise.

Redcloack doesn't really have much of a reason to trust Durkon. There's aspects of that meeting which lend credence to what Durkon is saying, but the idea that the gods are ready to punt the world into the trashcan has been a difficult pill to swallow to everyone who had much better evidence of it.

My thesis has nothing to do with anything Durkon said. Redcloak has all the information he needs.

He is trying to blackmail the gods who, he claims, created him and his kind for the sole purpose of killing for exp. By his own analysis, their logical response to being threatened by a creature they don't care about would be to destroy him before he can carry out his threat. Why does he assume those gods will grant him time to complete a lengthy ritual rather than inform every adventurer in the world that there is an epic boss chock full of tasty EXP hanging around the North Pole?

Further, he is now at the location of the fifth and final gate. Its destruction would mean he gets no more tries. He has already failed four times and the group that was present for three of those four tries is already on site. How difficult is it to assume they will destroy this gate before he can use it?

Whatever Durkon had to say is unimportant. Redcloak already knows The Plan is certain to fail. He cannot admit it because then he would have to admit that killing his brother was wrong. So, stir in a little self deception, blame others where possible, and inflate his self image, and voila! Now he can look in the mirror for short intervals.

You and I know Durkon's offer is as good as it's going to get. Redcloak don't care. The Plan is more important to him than the world. Literally. It doesn't even have to succeed, it just has to let him die trying.

That kind of thinking is loaded with fallacies.

[gbaji]

Redcloak knows his strategy is a losing strategy.

He doesn't know his strategy is a losing strategy though. I've mentioned this a few times (In this thread even, I think). We have not yet been shown anything in the comic to allow us to assume that the gods have already agreed to destroy the world if Redcloak succeeds in the ritual.

We only know that the gods will destroy the world if the last gate is destroyed and the snarl released and we know that they are currently on hold for a vote to just destroy the world now instead of waiting for that to happen. No mention of what the gods actions if the ritual succeeds has been made. At least, to my knowledge, anyway. It's possible I'm missing a strip somewhere where this was stated?

He didn't know the gods would be willing and able to destroy the world themselves in order to protect their home planes from him. That makes the main goal of the Plan unfeasible (unless he is somehow able to take three whole pantheons by surprise, which I very much doubt).

Again. I've read a lot of people making this statement. But I'm not aware of anywhere in the actual comic which supports this assumption. Don't get me wrong, it's a reasonable assumption to make. I would certainly push for just that action if I were a member of any of the pantheons. But we don't actually know that the gods have taken this action. And from what we've seen, they are unable to take such unilateral (and multi-pantheon) action on the material plane without first reaching agreement on it ahead of time.

He is trying to blackmail the gods who, he claims, created him and his kind for the sole purpose of killing for exp. By his own analysis, their logical response to being threatened by a creature they don't care about would be to destroy him before he can carry out his threat. Why does he assume those gods will grant him time to complete a lengthy ritual rather than inform every adventurer in the world that there is an epic boss chock full of tasty EXP hanging around the North Pole?

Because the gods aren't allowed to operate that directly? And they are doing that (through Durkon and the Order). But the gods can't act directly. Also, most of the gods don't seem to be fully aware of what TDO is doing via Redcloak. Some of the evil gods (and perhaps neutral gods as well) may be ok with TDO gaining more power, and actually support him. TDO is working through mortal agents, to achieve something that could tip the balance of power. The gods likely have to act in the same manner here as well.

Further, he is now at the location of the fifth and final gate. Its destruction would mean he gets no more tries. He has already failed four times and the group that was present for three of those four tries is already on site. How difficult is it to assume they will destroy this gate before he can use it?

It's very reasonable to assume the opposite. The good guys don't want the world to end. Recloak is counting on the fact that they will be unable to use the one thing they've used to thwart him at the other gates. And it's not a bad bet, either.

We, the audience, know this too. Roy has stated that destroying the last gate is not an option. They have to actually face Team Evil directly and defeat them. Something they have failed to do in the past.

So yeah. It's actually a very good bet for Redcloak to continue with The Plan at this point.

You and I know Durkon's offer is as good as it's going to get. Redcloak don't care. The Plan is more important to him than the world. Literally. It doesn't even have to succeed, it just has to let him die trying.

That kind of thinking is loaded with fallacies.

Oh. I'm not saying that he doesn't also have a ton of other "issues" going on in his head as well. But objectively, his choice to continue the plan is not a bad one based on what he actually knows. He may be wrong, of course. The gods may consider destroying this world instead of letting him threaten them into consessions to be a better option. Or they may not have a choice (or may not be able to come to an agreement). Presumably, TDO can only threaten one outer plane, and thus one "set" of gods (or god aligned planes, whatever). And the threat can only actually be used once. If TDO actually unleashes the snarl, he gains nothing. So it's a threat. A doomsday device. Which can only threaten 1/9th of the deities involved. Seems like a strong incentive to put yourself into one of the other 8/9ths, right?

And to be fair, even the information about TDOs color might skew things in his favor. Let TDO "win". Give him everything he wants. Then work with him to seal away the snarl forever. TDO gets a strong position in what now becomes the one permanent world, everyone else gets to have a world that doesn't have to be destroyed regularly. The only actual risk is if TDO just releases the snarl out of spite or something. It's a gamble, but I could see the gods choosing this course if it comes to it.

Obviously, if the order can defeat Team Evil, and get Redcloak to help seal the rift without giving consessions, that would be ideal (and is what Thor is trying to do through Durkon).

Honestly though, I suspect that the actual ending/conflict will go very differently than any of those options. So...

[brian 333]

He doesn't know his strategy is a losing strategy though. I've mentioned this a few times (In this thread even, I think). We have not yet been shown anything in the comic to allow us to assume that the gods have already agreed to destroy the world if Redcloak succeeds in the ritual.

We only know that the gods will destroy the world if the last gate is destroyed and the snarl released and we know that they are currently on hold for a vote to just destroy the world now instead of waiting for that to happen. No mention of what the gods actions if the ritual succeeds has been made. At least, to my knowledge, anyway. It's possible I'm missing a strip somewhere where this was stated?

Redcloak knows nothing of the gods' rules or strategies, and so they can play no part in his decision process.

But what he believes about them, that they are self-serving, self-righteous hypocrites who created monsters for the sole purpose of being killed for their EXP, is very important. He must be relying on these same gods to abstain from having him or Xykon killed by virtually every adventurer in the world to believe he has even a chance of success.

Back when nobody knew about The Plan he may have believed he was sneaking one past the gods. 4/5 of the patches that keep the world intact have been ripped off. There is zero chance the gods do not know what he is doing, and since they are all hypocrites anyway, there is zero chance they are not doing whatever it takes to make sure he does not unleash a gods-killing abomination among them.

But it's a bluff! Right. So, why would the gods concede anything? And if it's not a bluff, why would the gods allow him to unleash the kraken? Snarl?

Any attempt to reason it through from Redcloak's PoV runs into this little conundrum, and none of this is based on anything external to what Redcloak knows and believes.

Because the gods aren't allowed to operate that directly? And they are doing that (through Durkon and the Order). But the gods can't act directly. Also, most of the gods don't seem to be fully aware of what TDO is doing via Redcloak. Some of the evil gods (and perhaps neutral gods as well) may be ok with TDO gaining more power, and actually support him. TDO is working through mortal agents, to achieve something that could tip the balance of power. The gods likely have to act in the same manner here as well.

The other hypocritical gods who send paladins off to kill women and children are prohibited from doing exactly what TDO did in creating the Mantle?

And how would he be aware of these self-imposed limits? If he knows, what reason would be enough to make him believe they are not hypocrites who would not simply smite him mid-ritual?

The most damning point against this argument is that Redcloak knows nothing about what the other gods are allowed to do, and wouldn't believe you if you told him.

It's very reasonable to assume the opposite. The good guys don't want the world to end. Recloak is counting on the fact that they will be unable to use the one thing they've used to thwart him at the other gates. And it's not a bad bet, either.

We, the audience, know this too. Roy has stated that destroying the last gate is not an option. They have to actually face Team Evil directly and defeat them. Something they have failed to do in the past.

So yeah. It's actually a very good bet for Redcloak to continue with The Plan at this point.

The good guys, faced with the elimination of their protectors, prestige, wealth, and global supremacy, will allow it to happen rather than cash in their chips and start over?

Redcloak believes the only difference between the Good Guys and him is that the Good Guys are either naive, self-deceived, or hypocrites. He assumed Durkon was only bargaining because his position was weak. If Durkon was acting from a position of strength, he'd have simply wiped out his enemy and moved on. That's what Redcloak would have done.

Redcloak can only believe The Plan has a chance of success if he refuses to objectively analyze the situation. Back when the Chess Analogy was in play: Redcloak is still following the Scholar's Mate after his opponent has moved the Queen's Pawn. But he's never actually examined how the board no longer favors his strategy, and is about to lose his Queen as a result.

His belief that success is possible is rooted in one thing: he has sacrificed too much to quit now. It's either win or die, and if he dies, he's ready to flip the game board so the other guys lose too.

[gbaji]

Redcloak knows nothing of the gods' rules or strategies, and so they can play no part in his decision process.

And yet, your entire argument rests on the assumption that Redcloak knows as an absolute fact that the gods will act directly to stop him from completing the ritual. Something that every single bit of empierical evidence he has (and perhaps a bit of direct divine instruction via the Mantle) tells him is not the case.

He must be relying on these same gods to abstain from having him or Xykon killed by virtually every adventurer in the world to believe he has even a chance of success.

And yet. So far, the only thing the gods have sent after him and Xykon has been the order. Again. You are assuming that Redcloak knows, for an absolute fact, and in direct opposition to what his own god is telling him, that The Plan can't succeed because of divine intervention that has not happened, and that, in fact, we the audience know wont happen (Thor directly told Durkon that he couldn't do so, and the godmoot decision to destroy the world ahead of time is hung up). That's a heck of a stretch if illogic to go through to convince the high priest of TDO to just abandon what TDO is telling him to do.

Back when nobody knew about The Plan he may have believed he was sneaking one past the gods. 4/5 of the patches that keep the world intact have been ripped off. There is zero chance the gods do not know what he is doing, and since they are all hypocrites anyway, there is zero chance they are not doing whatever it takes to make sure he does not unleash a gods-killing abomination among them.

And yet. So far, the only thing they've actually sent was Durkon.

And how would he be aware of these self-imposed limits? If he knows, what reason would be enough to make him believe they are not hypocrites who would not simply smite him mid-ritual?

He's a high level cleric. I'm reasonably certain he knows that gods aren't allowed to act directly on the prime material plane.

The good guys, faced with the elimination of their protectors, prestige, wealth, and global supremacy, will allow it to happen rather than cash in their chips and start over?

The "good guys" I spoke of are the Order and their friends. And yes, Roy has specifically stated that allowing Team Evil to "win" is preferable to the world being destroyed. That's what the whole conversation with Serini was about. While Redcloak doesn't know for sure that they wont destroy the last gate out of spite, he's actually correct that they wont. His "gambit" is working. He's going all in with his chips, assuming his opponent wont be willing to match him. And he's right. We, the audience, know this.

His belief that success is possible is rooted in one thing: he has sacrificed too much to quit now. It's either win or die, and if he dies, he's ready to flip the game board so the other guys lose too.

No. His belief in success is that the gods will be either unable or unwiling to directly stop him. And so far, every single bit of evidence he has shows him that this belief is correct. He has the word of one Dwarf, showing up at the last minute to try to talk him out of it, to the contrary.

[brian 333]

And yet, your entire argument rests on the assumption that Redcloak knows as an absolute fact that the gods will act directly to stop him from completing the ritual. Something that every single bit of empierical evidence he has (and perhaps a bit of direct divine instruction via the Mantle) tells him is not the case.



And yet. So far, the only thing the gods have sent after him and Xykon has been the order. Again. You are assuming that Redcloak knows, for an absolute fact, and in direct opposition to what his own god is telling him, that The Plan can't succeed because of divine intervention that has not happened, and that, in fact, we the audience know wont happen (Thor directly told Durkon that he couldn't do so, and the godmoot decision to destroy the world ahead of time is hung up). That's a heck of a stretch if illogic to go through to convince the high priest of TDO to just abandon what TDO is telling him to do.



And yet. So far, the only thing they've actually sent was Durkon.



He's a high level cleric. I'm reasonably certain he knows that gods aren't allowed to act directly on the prime material plane.



The "good guys" I spoke of are the Order and their friends. And yes, Roy has specifically stated that allowing Team Evil to "win" is preferable to the world being destroyed. That's what the whole conversation with Serini was about. While Redcloak doesn't know for sure that they wont destroy the last gate out of spite, he's actually correct that they wont. His "gambit" is working. He's going all in with his chips, assuming his opponent wont be willing to match him. And he's right. We, the audience, know this.



No. His belief in success is that the gods will be either unable or unwiling to directly stop him. And so far, every single bit of evidence he has shows him that this belief is correct. He has the word of one Dwarf, showing up at the last minute to try to talk him out of it, to the contrary.

I'm not relying on Redcloak having absolute facts. I'm relying on what he is shown to know in comic and what he is shown to believe in comic. No extra knowledge is required.

[gbaji]

I'm not relying on Redcloak having absolute facts. I'm relying on what he is shown to know in comic and what he is shown to believe in comic. No extra knowledge is required.

So you can point to somewhere in the comic where Redcloak is shown to know for a fact that The Plan has a zero percent chance of success? Not something he's told (by someone he just met and has no reason to trust), but something he has acknowledged and believes to be "known fact".

This does not negate the strong possiblity that he's ignoring other courses of action out of some variation of sunk cost fallacy. But just because there might be better options for him to pursue, is not the same as "the one he is pursuing has no chance of success and he knows it". Which is what you have been claiming.

[Dasick]

My thesis has nothing to do with anything Durkon said. Redcloak has all the information he needs.

He is trying to blackmail the gods who, he claims, created him and his kind for the sole purpose of killing for exp. By his own analysis, their logical response to being threatened by a creature they don't care about would be to destroy him before he can carry out his threat. Why does he assume those gods will grant him time to complete a lengthy ritual rather than inform every adventurer in the world that there is an epic boss chock full of tasty EXP hanging around the North Pole?

Xykon and Redcloack already squatted on top of a gate (Dorukan's) for a long period of time and nothing really happened. As far as he can see, they just had a critical ordinary failure.

And the thing is, it's not happening. Durkon showing up to negotiate is the only time the gods directly intervene, and even then it's not certain. They've been at the North Pole for a while, and they're not particularly worried about adventurers showing up. It's more the tedium of the search that's driving everyone nuts so they want it to be over ASAP. More to the point, OOTS might be the highest level adventuring party in the world, and even then they're underdogs compared to team Redcloack.

You and I know Durkon's offer is as good as it's going to get. Redcloak don't care. The Plan is more important to him than the world. Literally. It doesn't even have to succeed, it just has to let him die trying.

That kind of thinking is loaded with fallacies.

Seems like a principled stance. A cosmic middle finger in the general direction of the uncaring universe. I'm not sure it's that is fallacious, unless principles are fallacious?

But what he believes about them, that they are self-serving, self-righteous hypocrites who created monsters for the sole purpose of being killed for their EXP, is very important. He must be relying on these same gods to abstain from having him or Xykon killed by virtually every adventurer in the world to believe he has even a chance of success.

The good guys, faced with the elimination of their protectors, prestige, wealth, and global supremacy, will allow it to happen rather than cash in their chips and start over?

Redcloak believes the only difference between the Good Guys and him is that the Good Guys are either naive, self-deceived, or hypocrites. He assumed Durkon was only bargaining because his position was weak. If Durkon was acting from a position of strength, he'd have simply wiped out his enemy and moved on. That's what Redcloak would have done.

Redcloak can only believe The Plan has a chance of success if he refuses to objectively analyze the situation. Back when the Chess Analogy was in play: Redcloak is still following the Scholar's Mate after his opponent has moved the Queen's Pawn. But he's never actually examined how the board no longer favors his strategy, and is about to lose his Queen as a result.

His belief that success is possible is rooted in one thing: he has sacrificed too much to quit now. It's either win or die, and if he dies, he's ready to flip the game board so the other guys lose too.

Two things worth pointing out here

First, it takes a successful speech check pass on Belkar's part to convince Serini that the gods will destroy the world. It took a "rougish halfling to roguish halfling" to get her to see.

Remember all this talk about bluffs and ruses and cons, and how a paladin thinks?

I think there's also such a thing as how a rogue thinks, and how a cleric thinks. He was kinda hoping the god being the jerks that they are would simply not notice him and his plan. But also, he is still a cleric. If it's difficult for a rogue to accept this analogy, imagine how much harder it is for a cleric to accept the idea that the gods will just destroy everything if things go south. And he might be expecting a great fire in the sky spelling out "WE'RE ON TO YOU REDCLOACK STOP RIGHT NOW" because that's how clerics think

[brian 333]

So you can point to somewhere in the comic where Redcloak is shown to know for a fact that The Plan has a zero percent chance of success? Not something he's told (by someone he just met and has no reason to trust), but something he has acknowledged and believes to be "known fact".

I have said Redcloak does not have the facts. I don't see why a point I acknowledged keeps being tossed at me as if it was somehow important to my argument. I have repeatedly pointed to what we have seen about his attitudes and beliefs about the gods.

He believes they are hypocrites who are just like him, but who hide behind goodness and pretend that makes them morally superior. He believes they created him and his race to be cannon fodder. What he knows for a fact is that the gods can impart knowledge to living mortals on the mortal plane; he has physical proof in his cloak of a god doing just that.

Now, assume he considers these facts and nothing else. The gods may or may not have made oaths and promises: why would they keep them if they prove inconvenient? He would not. Even if he knew anything about any agreement to not interfere, if the gods felt threatened, why would they not act?.

This does not negate the strong possiblity that he's ignoring other courses of action out of some variation of sunk cost fallacy. But just because there might be better options for him to pursue, is not the same as "the one he is pursuing has no chance of success and he knows it". Which is what you have been claiming.

Whatever better options he may have is also not relevant. It does not matter if he has no other option at all, better, worse, or indifferent.

The issue is simple: If Redcloak examined the situation at all, he would know the following:
* All four previous gates were destroyed before he could use one for The Plan. A member of the same group that was present at three of the four destroyed gates is already here.
* The Plan is known to the Good Guys. There is no chance that he can sneak this one past them or their gods. He has lost any element of surprise.
* If the Good Guys know about The Plan, then the Good Gods must as well. The same Good Gods who created him for cannon fodder.

Now, what must one conclude from this? Well:
* The chance of gaining control of and retaining control of the gate before it is destroyed.
* The Good Guys are here now. Even if they fail to stop him, the world is full of Good Guys.
* The Gods are not going to sit back and wait to be killed, nor will they voluntarily give up even a fair portion of their power and wealth.

What results from this?:
* It is unlikely that the gate will not be destroyed before he can use it.
* There are reinforcements already on the way from all over the world armed and intending to stop him.
* If the adventurers do not slay him for trying to usurp control of the gate, the gods will smite him and/or Xykon before the ritual is complete. Failing that, they will do something, anything, to avoid The Snarl.

There is no scenario in which The Plan succeeds. Redcloak would know this if he ever thought about it, so he never thinks about it other than to give himself an excuse.

[gbaji]

You're moving the goalposts. You originally said this (bolding relevant bits):

Redcloak has the knowledge he needs to understand that The Plan cannot succeed. He does not need the information Durkon offers. He has failed in all four previous attempts to secure a gate, and seeing that Durkon is already at the gate location, and a member of the team responsible for three of those four failures, it is unreasonable to think he will successfully secure and hold a gate long enough to perform the ritual.

To use your poker analogy, if you put your last chips into a pot you know you are going to lose, you are throwing good money after bad. In poker there is a chance your opponent is bluffing or overconfident, but if you see his hand and know it is better than yours, there is no mathematical model that shows going all in to be a good strategy. There has to be at least a chance of winning for a longshot to be worth betting more than has already been spent on it.

He has known as far back as Gobbotopia, when he faced his brother's image in his mirror, that there is a better way to achieve the objectives of The Plan. He was trying to convince himself that he could still make The Plan work, even knowing that it wouldn't.

But it will all be worth it. You'll see.

Relevant points "the plan cannot succeed", and "you know you are going to lose", and "there has to be at least a chance of winning (but apparently there isn't)". All are incorrect assumptions IMO.

I responded saying that The Plan still has a chance to succeed. And as far as Redcloak knows, it's actually still "the best plan" to achieve what he wants. Certainly, back in Gobotopia, he had no knowledge of the fourth color, or sealing the snarl, or that the gods might be willing to make a deal based on that, so any suggestion that there was a "better path" at that point is absurd. Suggesting that he "has known... that there is a better path" is beyond absurd. He's committed to The Plan. He honestly sees no other way out except to continue.

And, as I have pointed out multiple times, he's actually correct. In the absence of the gods themselves making changes from on high, no amount of temporarily holding some city will make a difference in the long run. He knows this. It's pointed out to him multiple times. We also know that historically the goblins were pushed down when they got too powerful. That's where TDO came from in the first place.

You then doubled down on your insistence that Redcloak somehow "knows the plan can't succeed", and when I asked you where you're getting it from, you responded with this:

I'm not relying on Redcloak having absolute facts. I'm relying on what he is shown to know in comic and what he is shown to believe in comic. No extra knowledge is required.

I think it's reasonable of me to ask you to link to specific strips in the comic in which he is clearly "shown to know/shown to believe [in comic]" that "The plan can't succeed".

You have your opinion about The Plan. I actually happen to agree with you (well, for storytelling purpopses of course). But to say that Redcloak, the actual character in the story, knows this? No. He doesn't. There is absolutely nothing in this entire comic series that should make us think this about Redcloak. You are projecting your opinion onto the character, and then judging the characters actions as fallacious based on that assumption.

Again. There is no indication anywhere in the story that Redcloak himself knows that The Plan cannot succeed.

Heck. There's no indication that Redcloak himself knows that The Plan isn't actually the best way to gain equality for goblinkind. If anything, the entire conversation he had with Durkon shows us clearly that he does not believe that any other method will work. He specifically rejects mere mortal recognition of goblin status because he does not believe it will work or stick for any length of time. He specifically rejects any solution that does not include the gods recognizing this "from on high", and commanding their various religous followings to cease treating goblins as monsters to kill for treasure.

And yeah, as one might expect, he rejects out of hand Durkon's proposal which conveniently requires that he gives up the one bit of leverage he has to achieve that deific pronouncement, on the promise that "if you help us out in this other way (and elminate your leverage in the process), we'll get the gods to give you that anyway". Except that Durkon can't actually promise it either. He could only promise that Thor would do so, but could not speak for any of the other gods.

So yeah. Redcloak is 100% justified to reject that offer and to continue with The Plan.

I have said Redcloak does not have the facts. I don't see why a point I acknowledged keeps being tossed at me as if it was somehow important to my argument. I have repeatedly pointed to what we have seen about his attitudes and beliefs about the gods.

It's not about his "attitudes and beliefs about the gods" that matters. It's whether he believes the gods will ever grant the same recognition and protection to goblins that they grant to other races if he doesn't hold the threat of the snarl over them.

He believes they are hypocrites who are just like him, but who hide behind goodness and pretend that makes them morally superior. He believes they created him and his race to be cannon fodder. What he knows for a fact is that the gods can impart knowledge to living mortals on the mortal plane; he has physical proof in his cloak of a god doing just that.

Now, assume he considers these facts and nothing else. The gods may or may not have made oaths and promises: why would they keep them if they prove inconvenient? He would not. Even if he knew anything about any agreement to not interfere, if the gods felt threatened, why would they not act?.

You're kinda making my point for me here. He can't trust them to do what he's demanding unless they have no choice, right? That's literally what that all means. Only the continual threat of the snarl being released if they renege on the deal will force them to follow through and allow his goal to succeed. Also, as a high priest, he knows what the gods can and cannot do. Provide information to mortal? Can do. Directly smite people on the mortal plane? Can't do. I'm not sure why you keep going back to this bit, when it's been very clearly stated, multiple times that the gods simply can't do this. Redcloak may not know the specifics behind the reason (they would risk another snarl), but he knows for an absolute fact, that it is true.

If we're going to move to speculating about his actions based on how he views the other deities, that is. And again, his discussion with Durkon only re-affirms this for us. His reaction to Durkon showing up was that it was confirmation that the gods are scared of him and The Plan. And hey. If they could do more than just send one dwarf to talk to him, why wouldn't they just do that? It confirms that he's on the right path. Why abandon it right when it's actually bearing fruit?

The issue is simple: If Redcloak examined the situation at all, he would know the following:
* All four previous gates were destroyed before he could use one for The Plan. A member of the same group that was present at three of the four destroyed gates is already here.
* The Plan is known to the Good Guys. There is no chance that he can sneak this one past them or their gods. He has lost any element of surprise.
* If the Good Guys know about The Plan, then the Good Gods must as well. The same Good Gods who created him for cannon fodder.

Now, what must one conclude from this? Well:
* The chance of gaining control of and retaining control of the gate before it is destroyed.
* The Good Guys are here now. Even if they fail to stop him, the world is full of Good Guys.
* The Gods are not going to sit back and wait to be killed, nor will they voluntarily give up even a fair portion of their power and wealth.

What results from this?:
* It is unlikely that the gate will not be destroyed before he can use it.
* There are reinforcements already on the way from all over the world armed and intending to stop him.
* If the adventurers do not slay him for trying to usurp control of the gate, the gods will smite him and/or Xykon before the ritual is complete. Failing that, they will do something, anything, to avoid The Snarl.

There is no scenario in which The Plan succeeds. Redcloak would know this if he ever thought about it, so he never thinks about it other than to give himself an excuse.

Huh? How does that follow, even from your own statements?:

There is an easy scenario in which The Plan succeeds.

1. Team Evil defeats the order in a climatic battle.
2. Team Evil completes the ritual. The gods don't smite them down because (as Redcloak knows, and Thor has confirmed) they can't actually do that (why do you keep saying this?).
3. The gods are unwilling or unable to destroy the world before TDO gains control of the snarl and threatens them with it.
4. The gods capitulate and give TDO what he wants.
5. The Plan succeeds.

The only questionable part in that at all is step 3. And that comes down to whether the gods choose to destroy the entire world and start over (which requires them reaching agreement to do so, and incurs a significant cost), or either via dithering on their part, or active choice, they just allow TDO to succeed and then give him what he wants.

And that's not nearly the absolute certainty that you seem to think it is. Nothing has changed from step3 onwards that didn't exist at gate 1, 2, 3, and 4, right? The entire plan assumes that the gods aren't going to do something like this, and has from the beginning. So Redcloak, as the high priest of TDO, would have to make the amazing leap that his own god is "wrong" to come to the conclusion you are assuming he has. That just seems unlikely to me. The risk of the gods stepping in directly and destroying the world was baked into The Plan from day one. Clearly TDO considers it an acceptable risk, so Redcloak somewhat has to as well.

What's surprising is that you even state that the gods "will do something, anything, to avoid The Snarl", but can't consider the possibility that that "something, anything" could include "give TDO what he wants".

I get it. From a meta perspective, we all know that The Plan can't succeed, because we know that Rich is writing the story of how the Order of the Stick saves the world. But that doesn't mean that we can criticize the actions of the villians within the story for not realizing that ahead of time and just abandoning their plans. That wouldn't make for a very good story. Also, given that The Plan comes directly from TDO, and Redcloak is TDO's high priest, and wearing the Crimson Mantle too boot, I don't think he actually *can* abandon The Plan and retain his status as TDO's priest. While the gods can't directly act against other folks on the mortal plane, they certainly can against their own clerics, by, at the very least, stripping them of powers granted to them by that god. And if we assume that Redcloak and TDO's fourth color is going to come into play to deal with the snarl, then Redcloak likely has to remain a priest in good standing with TDO in order to use TDO's color. He could certainly do this if the Plan fails, but not if he's the one who betrays his god and makes it fail. You know. From a meta perspective.

[brian 333]

Sorry, but the goalposts have not moved. Redcloak possesses all the knowledge he requires to figure out The Plan cannot succeed, and that information does not come from anything Durkon said. That has been my position all along.

He has known since Right Eye's village that there is a better path forward for goblins. The hobgoblin fort and Gobbotopia proved it again. He does not need to know anything at all about a fourth color or permanent gates to know the better way exists.

I have repeatedly stated Redcloak could know if he thought it through, but he does not think it through. He cannot, because to admit The Plan will fail is to admit he murdered his brother for nothing.

Since Durkon's offer plays no part in my thesis, I have no need to defend ideas I never endorsed or refuted. Nothing to do with the fourth quidity has any part of my thesis. It has no impact whatsoever on what I said.

Why can't the gods intervene? The Dark One did. TDO created The Mantle Redcloak wears. Because of some agreement they claim they made before TDO was born? Threaten them with unleashing the gods-eating Snarl and you can bet those hypocrites toss that oath out of the window.

Redcloak knows nothing about how The Gods deliberate, and so that whole line of thinking cannot be explored. For all he knows, all it takes is one god who is scared enough to hurl a lightening bolt. Game over. Knowledge Redcloak does not have cannot be used as part of Redcloak's justifications.

I'm not relying on any meta info to support my thesis. I'm merely asking, "What would RC do?" Well, let's see: Brother threatened his plans, brother murdered.
Hobgoblin craftsman has knowledge of the phylactery takeout? Craftsman murdered.
Tsukiko knows about the Ritual? Dead Tsukiko. Now, Redcloak threatens the very existence of some god?

Think about it as if you were Redcloak. Do you really think Redcloak would allow someone to complete a ritual which gave his opponent a kill-Redcloak button?