Utropia

[Taffimai]

So you think Cultist has an ability that gets stronger if he's killed, are unsure if he's a wolf because they'd make a better fake, but are still 100% on board with this elimination?
I was going to say that was weird until I realized you were saying you thought he was a town or a neutral with a power that gets better on death. If your wrong and hes just a bad wolf, no harm done. But if you're right and he's a towny with a death upgrade then it's also ok to kill him. Neutrals less great but still not awful.
Ok, I see where your coming from with this and why it's a better vote for you even if you still are suspicious of me. Would've been weird if you just stopped not trusting me after so long.

This is entirely correct except for the part I bolded since I don't share your anti-neutral suspicions

[moonfly7]

This is entirely correct except for the part I bolded since I don't share your anti-neutral suspicions

Fair enough. I think my stance on anything other than town is well documented. But I'm glad I understood what you meant.

[Taffimai]

I believe bladescape unpaired moonfly with BCH, not Cultist. But I do think recent interactions imply a moonfly/3SC unpairing... though then again wolf!3SC would have "unpair self with partners" pretty high on his priority list.

You are correct, bah.

[moonfly7]

Actually, if Cultist flips neutral with an after death power, so long as he isn't a town hostile role, this is one of the few times we can trust a neutral. Since, you know, they're already dead. So we'd know alignment and goals and anything he said after this point would be much more trustworthy since there would no longer be a wolf chance.

Its kinda funny that my logic here boils down to, quite literally: the only neutral I trust is a dead neutral.

Or some other mechanically cleared one. A complete role and power scry would also be fine.

[AvatarVecna]

ftr in case this has anything to do with me: I managed to forget to cross out my Kraken vote from page one until a couple of hours ago, so that post will have a "last edited two days after it was made" stamp.

Not really, no. Just probably why Ripptor ended up left off my reads list, because I was counting the players I'd added to it and stopped at sixteen.

- - - Updated - - -



I noticed. Though actually throwing accusations at the wall => desperately trying to survive => not jester, so that is worth noting... unless it's a jester trying to not look like a jester...

I don't think I like games that could contain jesters.

I don't remember which game it was, cuz it's like a year or two back, but there's a game (or maybe it's in general thread?) where I dump on Jester role for inherently making the game less fun. If you're a town-siding neutral, wolves want you dead but town doesn't. If you're a wolf-siding neutral, town wants you dead but wolves don't. If you're a jester, you want everybody to want you dead, and there's only one way to do that: ruin the game for as many people as possible. Just troll and antagonize. Play bad on purpose and dare people to give you a win just to get you out of their hair and not clogging up their thread. This actually applies to basically any role whose mechanics include "death isn't a real consequence for you". If you're playing somebody who can keep talking in chat after dying, you're gonna be insufferable cuz you don't have to tread carefully. I think the game that prompted this was Corporate WW, where my 'defying death' power was a single vote post-death. No words, just a single name in bold red, and I exploited it for all it was worth, and we have one less player as a result of that. "Death isn't a consequence for you" makes the game worse, no matter how small a portion it comes in.

[moonfly7]

I don't remember which game it was, cuz it's like a year or two back, but there's a game (or maybe it's in general thread?) where I dump on Jester role for inherently making the game less fun. If you're a town-siding neutral, wolves want you dead but town doesn't. If you're a wolf-siding neutral, town wants you dead but wolves don't. If you're a jester, you want everybody to want you dead, and there's only one way to do that: ruin the game for as many people as possible. Just troll and antagonize. Play bad on purpose and dare people to give you a win just to get you out of their hair and not clogging up their thread. This actually applies to basically any role whose mechanics include "death isn't a real consequence for you". If you're playing somebody who can keep talking in chat after dying, you're gonna be insufferable cuz you don't have to tread carefully. I think the game that prompted this was Corporate WW, where my 'defying death' power was a single vote post-death. No words, just a single name in bold red, and I exploited it for all it was worth, and we have one less player as a result of that. "Death isn't a consequence for you" makes the game worse, no matter how small a portion it comes in.

I've always disliked the jester, or any "kill me" roles, personally. The reason being that, if your playing them, you still feel like you lost even if you won. And if you aren't, they're just annoying and unhelpful to everyone, wolves and town alike.

[Rogan]

Spoiler: Disclaimer

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I'm not feeling significantly better and even got some RL stress in addition. Among other things, I've had contact with someone positiv and am worried about their and my own health. Last test still negative, but it's really draining my strength. So I can't keep up with my usual participation. Sorry about this.

I basically agree with Snow that 3Sec is the saver option.

In regards to BCH, a slight point in their favor is, he always places "Kill loud persons for info" very high on his list of priorities.
I've been slightly reminded of another game, I think it was Fallout 2.

Spoiler: Rough rundown

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Getting closer to EoD, we were in a situation where the lynch target was someone inactive. Snow was the runner up, while she was my top town read and Bat also placed her north of neutral. He still moved his vote to some third party (which might have been me, not sure) which, according to tie rules, made Snow the lynch target.
I called him out on this, asked him to change again. I've included the only possible alternative without outside Interference: Snow and I both vote for him, so he dies instead.
Since he didn't react and nobody else showed up to do something, we followed the plan and Bat died. (All players involved were town).

Spoiler

Show

The next night, I was visited by approximately half the playerbase and no-selled those actions with a protective power I inherited from Bat

So Bat was more willing to risk a misslynch on someone active and trusted than taking the save option which would give less info. He was so convinced in his position he was blind to the risk for himself, despite it being spelled out.

I'm not sure about the timing of events, so I can't say how applicable it is in this game. But it felt worth to mention this.

Bat definitely is suspicious right now and we need to get more information on him. But I think a Wolf!3Sec would give him some decent town cred (no town lock, w/w wagons day 1 can happen. See the previous UPick), so I'd try this first.

---

I'm here for questions, if this will help anybody.

[moonfly7]

Spoiler: Disclaimer

Show

I'm not feeling significantly better and even got some RL stress in addition. Among other things, I've had contact with someone positiv and am worried about their and my own health. Last test still negative, but it's really draining my strength. So I can't keep up with my usual participation. Sorry about this.

I hope you get better soon and stay Covid negative man, no judgment here if posting drops off, I think we've all been in a similar enough situation before.

[Metastachydium]

I think our read of bladescape is the same. I think they're town because... honestly, I don't think I can adequately defend my 'obvious wolf'. I get the sense that wolf!bladescape would be playing differently than usual, and I don't see any of those markers this early on. They're the weakest of my townleans, but I feel better about them than the nulls on my list.

So, Blade sounds like Blade and Blade sounds like a dog, therefore Blade is not a dog because he wouldn't sound like Blade (and a dog) in that case? It does make a demented kind of sense, but I don't know that this is a real pattern and the theory has the downside of coming from, well, you.

I will elaborate. I would prefer it if town didn't waste a day vote lynching me - since that's one less vote to go to a wolf - and I genuinely suspect BCH of being wolfy.

If I get lynched today, that's not the end of the world. As I've stated, I would prefer it be me than any other town since I can be of immediate use, so I'm willing to take that heat. But if there's a choice between me and one of the people I believe to be a wolf AND there's a decent shot of making that happen? Well, that's pretty much a no-brainer for me.

Yeah, sure, whatever. Very noble of you.

Baning me would be really funny, though. I highly encourage someone to try it.

Hm.

This probably doesn't make me look good, and I'm certainly not defending Cultist, but I'd like to point out that un-self-voting is a great way for a Jester to try and un-slip and regain a wagon.

The time-tested art of WIFOM at work! (Folks are right, Jesters are a pain.)

"Let" as in not waste a lynch on them, and have them spend a night-kill. And agree that they're most likely a neutral trying to gain attention (Jester-lean)

Makes sense (more on that below).

Yeah, I doubt there's enough time left "today" to push on my Moonfly lean, and the results of today are looking like the best way to expand upon that.

OFC, if Moonfly kills me tonight, I won't get that chance... So remember me!

Always. You shall not be forgotten, no matter what. (Still, try not to die, okay?)

TMI.

Um, what's that short for?

I take that to mean you think we have w/w wagons? Actually I'm going to raise that one as a general question: how likely do people think it is that 3SC/BCH are both wolves?

Cultist being a dog would surprise me almost as much as him flipping Town would, so not really.

I'm gonna clarify, since it's a decent argument against me and I've not really explained myself: I think you're a jester wasting our time. I think instead of being a wolf who made a really really dumb mistake, you're a jester who tried to make a good move but wasn't subtle enough, and now you're going full tryhard "LYNCH ME LYNCH ME LYNCH ME". By your own admission (delivered with a literal wink and nudge, I might add), lynching you is only a downside for town if you're a jester (or a townie lying for no good reason, but whatever).

I don't think a wolf would've flubbed this badly, or doubled down the way you have. Even a new wolf with zero experience doesn't say "I'm a townie with reality warping powers that defy death so there's no reason not to kill me even if you think I'm town". You're lying about your power and actively trying to die. I don't see a wolf doing that. Whether you're a lying townie or a jester is irrelevant and unhelpful to me, because you're not a wolf. Lynching someone I'm 95% sure isn't a wolf is a bad move. I'd rather spend D1 actually accomplishing something.

I did the BCH ISO because yesterday afternoon I said I'd do one, and when I did, I found a lot of little things that felt really off. It's possible I'm wrong, it's not the strongest case in the world, but BCH has a been attracting suspicion and discussion far longer than you have this game, and has posted a good deal more. If they're a wolf, we can use all that to try and find more wolves; if they're town, that's not great, but we still have a consolation prize. If we lynch you and you're a wolf, you're just a wolf who played about as awful a D1 as it's possible to play, and we learn nothing about basically anyone else because nobody's really defending you and you haven't posted much of anything substantial about anything other than this maybe-fake-jester play. If we lynch you and you're not a wolf? We get even less info. We get basically nothing actionable.

Lynching you is like 10-20% chance of "wolf, but little info" and 80-90% chance of "town/jester, and basically zero info". Lynching BCH is maybe as much as 60-70% chance of "wolf, with lots of info" and 30-40% chance of "town, with lots of info". Lynching you is a waste of time. If we're gonna test your claim, I'd rather a vig do it, that way at least we don't waste a lynch and even more daytime debating whether the troll is evil, neutral, or good-but-throwing-for-no-reason.

And this is the below. Well argued.

I go into every game with a certain expectation: D1 is never w/w.

Khm, UPick2, khm.

As a few others have said, it sounds like there are ways this power can be used to prove something. It feels very strong for a Town role (would you be able to break a rule in such a way that the wolves are outed to everyone?) so I'm not sure I quite believe it, even if there are restrictions. The Jester or other Neutral theory seems to fit well if this is his actual power.

Thank you.

Overall, I'm comfortable with these two wagons and in keeping my vote on Bat. I'd be curious for the people off those wagons to take a side (by my count: Meta, green!Rogan, Book, Persolus, Jeen, Flat, red!Rgoan).

I'd rather don't get any closer to Cultist than I am right now, thank you very much, although I'd be deilghted to see him removed from the game. That said, if need be, I might follow your lead and go after BCH. I trust you (as the closest thing to locktown I know of, currently) and, if not the correctitude of your assessment, at the very least the intention behind it.

Not fully up to date but general note: Outside of small changes suchs as fixing typos and crossing out old votes, make sure you are not editing your old posts. Do not edit them in any substantial way. This makes the game difficult to follow and even catch up on. Not sure if this has happened but a question arose privately and I want to make the answer very public.

Roger that, chief.

[3SecondCultist]

I'm gonna clarify, since it's a decent argument against me and I've not really explained myself: I think you're a jester wasting our time. I think instead of being a wolf who made a really really dumb mistake, you're a jester who tried to make a good move but wasn't subtle enough, and now you're going full tryhard "LYNCH ME LYNCH ME LYNCH ME". By your own admission (delivered with a literal wink and nudge, I might add), lynching you is only a downside for town if you're a jester (or a townie lying for no good reason, but whatever).

I don't think a wolf would've flubbed this badly, or doubled down the way you have. Even a new wolf with zero experience doesn't say "I'm a townie with reality warping powers that defy death so there's no reason not to kill me even if you think I'm town". You're lying about your power and actively trying to die. I don't see a wolf doing that. Whether you're a lying townie or a jester is irrelevant and unhelpful to me, because you're not a wolf. Lynching someone I'm 95% sure isn't a wolf is a bad move. I'd rather spend D1 actually accomplishing something.

I did the BCH ISO because yesterday afternoon I said I'd do one, and when I did, I found a lot of little things that felt really off. It's possible I'm wrong, it's not the strongest case in the world, but BCH has a been attracting suspicion and discussion far longer than you have this game, and has posted a good deal more. If they're a wolf, we can use all that to try and find more wolves; if they're town, that's not great, but we still have a consolation prize. If we lynch you and you're a wolf, you're just a wolf who played about as awful a D1 as it's possible to play, and we learn nothing about basically anyone else because nobody's really defending you and you haven't posted much of anything substantial about anything other than this maybe-fake-jester play. If we lynch you and you're not a wolf? We get even less info. We get basically nothing actionable.

Lynching you is like 10-20% chance of "wolf, but little info" and 80-90% chance of "town/jester, and basically zero info". Lynching BCH is maybe as much as 60-70% chance of "wolf, with lots of info" and 30-40% chance of "town, with lots of info". Lynching you is a waste of time. If we're gonna test your claim, I'd rather a vig do it, that way at least we don't waste a lynch and even more daytime debating whether the troll is evil, neutral, or good-but-throwing-for-no-reason.

That is some really solid reasoning there. I approve. You're only half right, of course - I did have a crazy plan that totally failed and blew up in my face - but if I really was a jester, no way I would try for it this early. I would want to leave a trail that people could come up with on their own, a few contradicting statements between days that people could find with an ISO, then mount a convincing-but-not-really-convincing defense.

Doing this? It would be bound to elicit the very claim you are making, and in a wholly obvious way. The appearance of jester was actually more useful to me than a town or wolf claim in the face of a pretty obvious slip. If I claimed wolf, I'd look like a jester. If I claimed town, I'd look like a wolf. It makes no sense for me to do anything I'm doing unless I am town, or it doesn't matter.

The wink and the nudge? That’s just me messing with you.

Is it working?

I like AVs reasoning and arguments here. Not necessarily on her vote, but on why she chose it and the reasoning she's using to argue. I have no evidence, but this gives me some town vibes. Especially considering the seemingly legitimate effort she's out in since the first few pages on actually pushing discussion.

Again I'm not super caught up on BCH, but AV is right that that's been a topic of discussion since day one and I can see why that would pull her vote.

I'm still sitting on my vote, but this is solid day one reasoning and, while I always wait for hard evidence to town read anyone, puts AV on my "I distrust you significantly less" list.

Somewhat agreed here. It makes her seem less suspicious on paper, and I will likely readjust my reads list when I post it - after my death, of course. Unlike you, I much prefer her vote to her reasoning, but that's just because she's got me wrong: I'm a town telling the literally unbelievable (as in 'none of you will believe me until gac flips me as town) truth.

To your point, I was off on the timing. It doesn't necessarily clear AV for me permanently, but it does definitely reduce the likelihood that she is a wolf. You are much higher on that list now than she is, in point of fact!

@3SecondCultist: since you're tied for the lynch, are you willing to say the limitations on your power and why you can't use it to save yourself?

That said, if you are truly town, I recommend a rulebreak like "on a tie with 3SecondCultist, the other person dies" or "if 3SecondCultist is up for the lynch, everyone else voted for dies instead"--the latter might get us several wolves.
Although I could see gac3 putting a limitation like you can't kill someone or use your power to directly out the wolves. E.g., no "Narrator will post everyone's alignment" as a usage.

Thrice asked, and thrice denied. Any rule break(s) I do on D1 will be mine to know, and mine alone (unless one of you has a seer power, which is super likely). If there is a wolf baner out there, I would rather keep them guessing how I am going to act and ponder the full extent of my power. If it draws a NK to me, then great. As I've reiterated several times, death won't stop me from helping town.

So you think Cultist has an ability that gets stronger if he's killed, are unsure if he's a wolf because they'd make a better fake, but are still 100% on board with this elimination?
I was going to say that was weird until I realized you were saying you thought he was a town or a neutral with a power that gets better on death. If your wrong and hes just a bad wolf, no harm done. But if you're right and he's a towny with a death upgrade then it's also ok to kill him. Neutrals less great but still not awful.
Ok, I see where your coming from with this and why it's a better vote for you even if you still are suspicious of me. Would've been weird if you just stopped not trusting me after so long.

Your logic is sound. I won't comment on anything beyond that.

so, this no longer looks like TMI. Either cultist is town and knows jack diddly squat about moon/BCH alignment, or he's a cornered wolf calling the two of them wolves, and his word can't be trusted as evidence for or against either of them. Either way, it's not that kind of slip.

I do find it interesting how Cultist is attacking moonfly for defending BCH, and attacking me for voting BCH. It sounds like Cultist is just throwing accusations at the wall to see if anything sticks.

Nope. I have been pretty consistent in my belief that BCH is a wolf. I just find your attack of him conveniently timed; whether or not you stated that you would ISO him beforehand, you've already admitted that my line of inquiry is valid. Similarly, I find moonfly's defense of him wolfy, even if he tried to explain it away.

I'm allowed to find more than one thing suspicious here!

I don't think I like games that could contain jesters.

I won't bother commenting on your speculation - since I think 'what I am' is pretty much a moot point right now, people will either vote me or they won't - but I am sorry for adding to any anxiety or paranoia. Playing a feelsbad game is absolutely not my intent right now.

I don't remember which game it was, cuz it's like a year or two back, but there's a game (or maybe it's in general thread?) where I dump on Jester role for inherently making the game less fun. If you're a town-siding neutral, wolves want you dead but town doesn't. If you're a wolf-siding neutral, town wants you dead but wolves don't. If you're a jester, you want everybody to want you dead, and there's only one way to do that: ruin the game for as many people as possible. Just troll and antagonize. Play bad on purpose and dare people to give you a win just to get you out of their hair and not clogging up their thread. This actually applies to basically any role whose mechanics include "death isn't a real consequence for you". If you're playing somebody who can keep talking in chat after dying, you're gonna be insufferable cuz you don't have to tread carefully. I think the game that prompted this was Corporate WW, where my 'defying death' power was a single vote post-death. No words, just a single name in bold red, and I exploited it for all it was worth, and we have one less player as a result of that. "Death isn't a consequence for you" makes the game worse, no matter how small a portion it comes in.

See above. Death isn't a consequence for me, but I'm trying not to be a **** about it. Whatever my role, I'm not going out of my way to troll and be antagonistic. Instead, I have offered a claim and what I hope will be taken as good faith reads on players to give intelligence to town.

[AvatarVecna]

Um, what's that short for?

Too Much Information. The general game setup is "uninformed majority (town) vs informed majority (scum)". Townies can have townleans or scumleans that they have various levels of confidence in, but the way they act can betray how much faith they have in those, how careful they're being about the possibility of being wrong. Some townies will commit so hard to a read they get tunnelvision. On the flip side, sometimes a wolf will slip by making a general assumption of a certain player's towniness, despite no reads or arguments in favor of said person being a townie. Imagine if, for example, Zelphas stood up and said "I know for a fact that Batcathat is not a wolf". Or maybe he's just making a lot of arguments that like Snowblaze or Rogan or moonfly7 are scum, and you notice a pattern where all those arguments are based on an unproven assumption that BCH is town. How does he know that for a fact? Why is he treating BCH's innocence as a given? That's a sign of TMI: someone who is not merely townreading BCH, but knows that BCH is town and is basing their arguments on information no townie could possibly have. There's only one faction that has that kind of information at this point in the game, and it's not the townies.

(Also, in fairness, that post turns out to not be an example of TMI, I misunderstood it.)

- - - Updated - - -

See above. Death isn't a consequence for me, but I'm trying not to be a **** about it. Whatever my role, I'm not going out of my way to troll and be antagonistic. Instead, I have offered a claim and what I hope will be taken as good faith reads on players to give intelligence to town.

It's not really your fault, and if you're playing in good faith, there's probably a lot of stuff in this post that I could respond to or think about. But I'm probably not gonna engage with anything you write until you're dead, at this point. It's WIFOM where one cup is maybe a jester trying to steal a win and another cup is maybe a caught wolf trying to lure us into a beast (or bluff us into thinking he's a beast, or double-bluff us into not thinking he's a beast so he can beast us). It's circular logic and chasing that thought spiral to an actual conclusion isn't worth it until we have more actionable intelligence about you. So until you flip...I'm probably just done discussing your posts or your wagon with anyone. No offense meant.

[3SecondCultist]

It's not really your fault, and if you're playing in good faith, there's probably a lot of stuff in this post that I could respond to or think about. But I'm probably not gonna engage with anything you write until you're dead, at this point. It's WIFOM where one cup is maybe a jester trying to steal a win and another cup is maybe a caught wolf trying to lure us into a beast (or bluff us into thinking he's a beast, or double-bluff us into not thinking he's a beast so he can beast us). It's circular logic and chasing that thought spiral to an actual conclusion isn't worth it until we have more actionable intelligence about you. So until you flip...I'm probably just done discussing your posts or your wagon with anyone. No offense meant.

No offense taken! You have made your position clear, and I understand it well enough. We're less than 12 hours until EOD now, so just not engaging with me or my wagon is a perfectly valid play.

[moonfly7]

Similarly, I find moonfly's defense of him wolfy, even if he tried to explain it away.

I once again request you to actually point out where I defend BCH. Just as I did in my attempt "to explain it away" as you put it. In fact an actual response to my statements and reasons is surprisingly entirely absent from this post. Not exactly a good decision when you blatantly wave them away like this.

I do want to say, though, I can't think of a single reason a Wolf Cultist would be so adamantly after me specifically. Like, my reasons are the same as basically everybody else's, i was not the first person on the wagon, I'm not even the biggest theory poster about him.
I guess I did jump onto it back when a bunch of votes left to go to Cat, and I will note my vote was followed by a resurgence if I'm not reading the vote order wrong. But that was a timing thing, not a swayed by me thing. Several of my own detractors jumped on the Cultist wagon in spite of my vote, not because of it.

Anyways that doesn't change my vote or suspicion, but I'm not really sure what a wolf Cultist gains from going after me. AV makes more sense as a more respected and less suspected player, but casting aspersions on me only to them flip wolf wouldn't hurt me much, and it certainly won't pull voters off of him.

[Metastachydium]

Too Much Information. The general game setup is "uninformed majority (town) vs informed majority (scum)".

Got it, thanks! (And I think that was supposed to be informed minority – unless you know more about dog numbers than I do [ominous orchestral note].)

[Let'sGetKraken]

I do want to say, though, I can't think of a single reason a Wolf Cultist would be so adamantly after me specifically. Like, my reasons are the same as basically everybody else's, i was not the first person on the wagon, I'm not even the biggest theory poster about him.

Only reasons would be to unpair you if you're both wolves, or pair you if you're town and he's a wolf. Unsure which it is.

We've broken 400 posts, good luck to anyone doing ISOs.

[AvatarVecna]

Got it, thanks! (And I think that was supposed to be informed minority – unless you know more about dog numbers than I do [ominous orchestral note].)

You caught me, there's 10 of us. We're debating if there's any townies at all, or if the 8 of you are all serial killers and N1 is gonna be a blood bath.

- - - Updated - - -

We've broken 400 posts, good luck to anyone doing ISOs.

I expect to be dead long before I have to start doing real ISOs. Small silver lining.

[Zelphas]

Too Much Information. The general game setup is "uninformed majority (town) vs informed majority (scum)". Townies can have townleans or scumleans that they have various levels of confidence in, but the way they act can betray how much faith they have in those, how careful they're being about the possibility of being wrong. Some townies will commit so hard to a read they get tunnelvision. On the flip side, sometimes a wolf will slip by making a general assumption of a certain player's towniness, despite no reads or arguments in favor of said person being a townie. Imagine if, for example, Zelphas stood up and said "I know for a fact that Batcathat is not a wolf". Or maybe he's just making a lot of arguments that like Snowblaze or Rogan or moonfly7 are scum, and you notice a pattern where all those arguments are based on an unproven assumption that BCH is town. How does he know that for a fact? Why is he treating BCH's innocence as a given? That's a sign of TMI: someone who is not merely townreading BCH, but knows that BCH is town and is basing their arguments on information no townie could possibly have. There's only one faction that has that kind of information at this point in the game, and it's not the townies.

(Also, in fairness, that post turns out to not be an example of TMI, I misunderstood it.)

In the continual effort to be more active in games like this, I will respond to my name here by declaring that I don't know definitively anyone's roles except my own, at the moment at least. Batcathat seems somewhat wolfy (though only somewhat), 3SecondCultist is wolf or neutral most likely, CaoimhinTheCape is solidly town by the narrator if we can trust that, AvatarVecna feels town to me at the moment, Snowblaze still feels vaguely wolfy but nothing concrete, and I've got nothing on anyone else, really.

[Snowblaze]

Managed to get somewhat distracted, but am now more or less present.

To do:
- work out how confident I am in wolf!BCH and hence which wagon I will vote
- read through Jeen and Persolus and whoever else was on that list
- work out whether "we have vaguely similar reads" is actually a valid reason to townread AV
- meta-dive Meta to confirm or deny my vague impression that he took more concrete stances in previous games
- try to figure out moonfly (aorn I've reached "not one of the two people I actively want dead so can exist in a vague hazy part of my reads list for a while longer)
- produce some kind of legacy reads list for if I get N1ed (thanks to Zelphas and bladescape for efforts to prevent that ;))
- get some RL work done
- sleep

Just over two hours before the last of those takes priority. Am I actually going to get most of that done? Probably not.

Saving "analyse today's wagon dynamics" for once we have a flip.

- - - Updated - - -

(Right, should add: 3SC, me not liking the possible existence of a jester is not at all your fault.)

[Xihirli]

You caught me, there's 10 of us. We're debating if there's any townies at all, or if the 8 of you are all serial killers and N1 is gonna be a blood bath.

Heeheeheehee

[Snowblaze]

On skimming through BCH, I think it's more what isn't there than what is. I'm kind of... I often wolfread town!BCH earlygame but last game I managed to find them by late D1 and... maybe that was because we were much more focused on each other but...

Yeah. I'm going through phases of "BCH has done a few wolfy things and not the things I expect of town!them, that probably means they're a wolf" and then "but can I really read BCH that well, and do they really do those things every town game, and there isn't really that much resistance to their wagon" and...

Actually, wait a second, just thought of something. Let me grab quotes.

[Batcathat]

Alright, I'm back again, though very tired, not entirely caught up and not quite sober (I was mostly busy with work, but not just that ).

I don't really have anything new to add, but a few things that bears repeating:

• While I can see how some things about me looks suspicious, I don't see how any of it would be nearly as bad as Cultist's possible slip and weird explanation there of. So while I get that I'm not at the top of anyone's townleans, I think Cultist would be the better choice. (Though I am admittedly a tad biased.)
• If Cultist is lynched and turns out to be telling the truth, he can still contribute. If I am lynched and turns out to be telling the truth, I'm just dead.

To be fair, I suppose there are a few things in favor of lynching me, namely that if Cultist is honest about both alignment and power his power is a lot more versatile than mine (though by his own admission, his power can be used after death, so the combined usefulness of a living me and a dead Cultist might be greater than that of a living Cultist) and if he's lynched and turns out to be neutral, town probably gains less intel to base future analysis on. That said, I think the arguments for lynching Cultist outweighs the arguments for lynching me, not only for me personally but for town. (But again, I am somewhat biased).

[Snowblaze]

Okay, yeah, this isn't quite the "gotcha" moment I thought it was. I initially thought BCH townleaning me a while back:

Let's see, out of the people with more than one vote, blade hasn't posted (though it's worth noting that he has posted in the recruitment thread since the game started, which might – but probably don't – be a sign of something), I'm leaning slightly town on Snow and is pretty neutral on the rest (maybe a slight townlean on Kraken? But I don't know why).

Contradicted the stance in this post:

While I'm not sure if I agree about the level of contribution or not (I should reread some of Snow's posts at some point), I like this attitude more than the "Snow seems solvy, so she's probably town" I saw from others, considering Snow's proven skill at looking solvy even when she's not (the last Upick being a good example).

I have some thoughts on the limitations of Cultist's power if he's being honest, though it's obviously pure speculation (and even if I'm right, it's still crazily powerful).

Which I don't think it does, the townlean could be for other reasons... actually instead of speculating: BCH, why did you have me as a townlean on page... 3, I think? And has your read changed since?

Also do you think any of the "Snow is solvy so probably town" people could be wolves with TMI?

[Batcathat]

Which I don't think it does, the townlean could be for other reasons... actually instead of speculating: BCH, why did you have me as a townlean on page... 3, I think? And has your read changed since?

Not really sure (I have intentionally avoided commenting on you that much since I can't make up my mind). Instinctively, you seem towny, but I am afraid that my instincts might be falling into the same trap that I warned other people about in the post you quoted. I think I have you pretty much at null, not because there's not enough to go on, but because I'm not sure how to interpret what's there.

Also do you think any of the "Snow is solvy so probably town" people could be wolves with TMI?

Interesting question. Not necessarily, but I suppose it's not impossible. I know Rogan said something along those lines, despite knowing that you're quite good at faking that, so maybe that's something?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

That said, if you are truly town, I recommend a rulebreak like "on a tie with 3SecondCultist, the other person dies" or "if 3SecondCultist is up for the lynch, everyone else voted for dies instead"--the latter might get us several wolves.

That is a huge risk to kill all of Snow, Persolsus, Batcathat, BookWombat, and Rogan. How many wolves do you think are in that group?

I'd rather don't get any closer to Cultist than I am right now, thank you very much, although I'd be deilghted to see him removed from the game. That said, if need be, I might follow your lead and go after BCH. I trust you (as the closest thing to locktown I know of, currently) and, if not the correctitude of your assessment, at the very least the intention behind it.

My asking for people to move toward either wagon is more to help get a read on their allegiances, especially as this gets down to crunch time. If we have wolf/town wagons that are tied up, wolves are going to try to save a buddy or someone putting the deciding vote on a wolf gives a lot of town points. I'm not 100% sure Bat is a wolf but I think both he and 3Sec are good options for a lynch today.

You caught me, there's 10 of us. We're debating if there's any townies at all, or if the 8 of you are all serial killers and N1 is gonna be a blood bath.

Shoutout to the game where everyone got cards and could pick alignments/powers, with me being the only person selecting Town.

---

No change in votes, just putting one on this page:


Votes:
Snowblaze (1): Metastachydium, Rogan
Persolus (1): BookWombat
Batcathat (6): Xihirli, LetsGetKraken, CaoimhinTheCape, AvatarVecna, Ripptor, 3SecondCultist
BookWombat (1): Persolus
Rogan (1): JeenLeen
3SecondCultist (6): Batcathat, Zelphas, Bladescape, Moonfly7, Snowblaze, Taffimai

No Vote: Flat Footed, Rogan

[moonfly7]

Hey, @Batcathat, what is the limitation you mentioned that you thought 3SC could have?
Cultist won't tell us Jack about his supposed abilities limitations himself, so any theories could be helpful to break the current tie one way or the other. Although I do know asking you could lead to a biased answer since, you know, nobody wants to die.

[Book Wombat]

Yanno, I'm kinda glad my power is random because I would have no idea who to target. When was the last time we had this many players / more?

[moonfly7]

Also, what time does day end? I saw it said in about twelve hours at some point today, but I'm not sure when, or if that's even correct.

[Batcathat]

I did promise Rogan a reads list and since there's a distinct possibility of me not surviving, I should probably deliver. Not much new and as previously noted, I'm not exactly at my most brilliant right now, but still.

• Avatar Vecna: Slight wolflean. I feel like I'm getting a similar feel to Love Letter (where I was town and AV wolf), but maybe it's just the feeling of AV suspecting me, rather than wolfy AV suspecting me.
• Flat Footed: Pretty much null.
• Xihirli: Is Xihirli. Every time I think I'm getting a feel for reading her, I turn out to be wrong.
• Bladescape: Slight townlean, maybe? Not really sure why.
• Snowblaze: See slightly above. Pretty much null.
• Book Wombat: Null.
• Metastachydium: Maybe a slight townlean? If I die, Meta has my posthumous vote for Mayor.
• Let'sGetKraken: Slight wolflean, at least if Cultist turns out to be town or neutral.
• 3SecondCultist: Thoroughly discussed. Still not quite sure what to think.
• KevinTheCape: After gac's clarification, almost certainly town.
• Rogan: Wolflean, but less than earlier.
• Ripptor: Null.
• JeenLeen: Null.
• Moonfly7: Slight townlean. Maybe?
• Persolus: Null.
• Zelphas: Null or maybe the slightest of wolfleans.
• Taffimai: Slight wolflean, though that might just be that it's been a while since I played with her.

[Persolus]

Also, what time does day end? I saw it said in about twelve hours at some point today, but I'm not sure when, or if that's even correct.

The game, according to Gac3, ends at 12:00 midnight today in Eastern Standard Time - so about 8 and a half hours, I think?

[Ripptor]

Also, what time does day end? I saw it said in about twelve hours at some point today, but I'm not sure when, or if that's even correct.

Based on Gac's post in Discord, I think we have 6 hours left? Math is hard. 8 Hours!

As for who to vote, I agree with AV (and Snow?) that we get more info out of a BCH flip...
And personally, I'm comfortable enough in the general feeling that Cultist is Neutral and that a flip there provides us nothing :shrug: