Candy-Coated Werewolf

[gac3]

The colour code is just because I wanted a festive colour, and CandyCoated fit quite well. Also reminiscent of blood.
If Rogan wants to reveal the trick, I have nothing against it.

Maybe Rogan should. That way we can move on from it. Even if they still don't agree after the fact.

[flat_footed]

flat_footed

you stand accused of the heinous crime of not supporting the la rams, how do you plead?

Is that an XFL team? Sorry, I only watch the NFL and root for the 49ers.

[gac3]

There's literally only one thing I can think of which is hilarious to me because it implies something that would ruin Gac's assumption anyway and I find flimsy at best.

That being said I'm near certain Gac is town because I doubt he'd do this vague dig heels in as wolf? I'd be surprised if he did at least.

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To clarify Rogan does not get the same town points for this.

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I don't believe this is a fair conjecture.

No matter how skilled people are not infallible.

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Literally any read on "if you were town you'd see x" is a read I will inherently disagree on.

Because sometimes you're tired. Or multitasking. Or just don't care. Especially as AV typically doesn't put effort into d1 much

All valid points that probably would have talked me into backing off initially. But there is no way AV is as freaked out as they are acting and not putting full effort into looking at the three posts. Once again, even if they thought I was reading to much into it, I'd be shocked if town AV didn't get what I was referencing by this point.

[Snowblaze]

3SC: Persolus townlean is pretty much "he did some decent-sounding analysis and is new enough that that's enough for me to give him town points on D1".

Murska thing is what I mentioned earlier, which is basically: he switched his vote from one counterwagon to himself to the other, but he switched to the one that has less of a case behind it which makes it less likely that a counterwagon to him will gain momentum"... now I'm writing it down it feels even weaker than originally but still.

[3SecondCultist]

I have more reads, but at work and will chime in later. For the time being, I'll say that it's pretty frustrating to see the game narrow around discussion of 'a thing' that some people seem to know but won't confirm and being assured by so-called better players that we should trust that people are town because of it.

Put me on BW as well, until this is resolved.

[Rogan]

Wait, that's allowed? Now I'm tempted to vote for "all threats to town".

Please also see the edit of his post.

The victory condition for town is:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

So Book mentioned the victory condition in a very deliberate way.
Gac noticed, so he knows the victory condition.
AV usually is very observant about those details and used the spelling of the condition as evidence before.

Conclusion: Book and Gac are town.
Wolf!AV couldn't get this, so it points against her to some degree.

[3SecondCultist]

3SC: Persolus townlean is pretty much "he did some decent-sounding analysis and is new enough that that's enough for me to give him town points on D1".

Murska thing is what I mentioned earlier, which is basically: he switched his vote from one counterwagon to himself to the other, but he switched to the one that has less of a case behind it which makes it less likely that a counterwagon to him will gain momentum"... now I'm writing it down it feels even weaker than originally but still.

Fair enough on both counts, I suppose. I wonder if Persolus' towncred would apply to me as well, but I guess that might have to wait for the denouement on this whole tangle.

[gac3]

I have more reads, but at work and will chime in later. For the time being, I'll say that it's pretty frustrating to see the game narrow around discussion of 'a thing' that some people seem to know but won't confirm and being assured by so-called better players that we should trust that people are town because of it.

Put me on BW as well, until this is resolved.

I have a fair bit of confusion as to why these "until this is resolved" votes are going on Book and not me.

[3SecondCultist]

Please also see the edit of his post.

The victory condition for town is:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

So Book mentioned the victory condition in a very deliberate way.
Gac noticed, so he knows the victory condition.
AV usually is very observant about those details and used the spelling of the condition as evidence before.

Conclusion: Book and Gac are town.
Wolf!AV couldn't get this, so it points against her to some degree.

That is... not the ironclad proof you think it is. Sorry.

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I have a fair bit of confusion as to why these "until this is resolved" votes are going on Book and not me.

No comment for now.

[gac3]

That is... not the ironclad proof you think it is. Sorry.

It's not ironclad proof against AV by any means but it is pretty solid proof for Book.

[Cazero]

Well, good enough for me.

[AvatarVecna]

I have a fair bit of confusion as to why these "until this is resolved" votes are going on Book and not me.

If we lynch you and you're town, that tells us jack diddly squat about BW's alignment since you could've just been misclearing them. But if we lynch BW and they're town, that gives you major town points for defending them this hard. I don't think scum!gac would defend them this hard.

BW is clear. I refuse to give Rogan towncred for pointing it out, though; it's just as easy for a wolf to try and get towncred by admitting to seeing it as it is for a wolf to pretend not to see it and try for an easy mislynch.

Mrs. McGinty.

[bladescape]

Please also see the edit of his post.

The victory condition for town is:
You win when all threats to the town have been eliminated.

So Book mentioned the victory condition in a very deliberate way.
Gac noticed, so he knows the victory condition.
AV usually is very observant about those details and used the spelling of the condition as evidence before.

Conclusion: Book and Gac are town.
Wolf!AV couldn't get this, so it points against her to some degree.

It would be a pity if "All threats to town" is a common phrase for victory conditions.

But also I do agree with the "Gac is town" conclusion.

And yes this was the hilariously flimsy reason I suspected in my last post. Going to re-iterate what I said in Afterlife though, and say using text from role-pms as evidence is honestly not something I like at all, and in the spirit of the game any sort of copying or using text from role-pms is meh.

[Rogan]

It's not ironclad proof against AV by any means but it is pretty solid proof for Book.

I agree on both counts.
It's simple, the victory condition of town wasn't made public as far as I know. It's literally impossible for a wolf to fake this without the risk of being wrong. And both Book and gac have been very clear about their stance.
If there is a wolf among them or they are a team, that's a huge risk. I'm willing to trust them.

Also, AV you played with Book in a wolf game. You mentioned yourself he was even more quiet than usual. You were evil yourself, if I recall correctly.


In conclusion:
AvatarVecna

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It would be a pity if "All threats to town" is a common phrase for victory conditions.

It's specifically THE town.
See the edit.

Without this detail, it could be coincidence. With it, it's very clear for me.

[AvatarVecna]

Also, AV you played with Book in a wolf game. You mentioned yourself he was even more quiet than usual. You were evil yourself, if I recall correctly.

That I happened to be correct doesn't change the fact that you have zero ****ing basis for making any claims for understanding their wolf game when they don't have a wolfgame meta yet.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: about the Thing

Show

So, yeah. I don't think the Thing should ever have been used. This is a game of figuring out who the wolves are because of what they post, what stances they take, who they attack and defend.

Not of "X is town because they know the secret message town knows and wolves don't". Taking that to its logical conclusion makes for a very boring game which wolves stand zero chance of winning.

But... I can't just pretend that none of this happened, that it doesn't tell me anything about gac's alignment or Wombat's.

Actually, no, there are worlds where Taffimai just gave wolves town's win condition for fakeclaiming purposes and this was all a crazy gambit on Wombat's behalf. I don't know whether I really believe that or whether I'm just using it as a way to pretend thus entire thing is NAI for all involved.

Except... I can't actually do that. Because if this whole thing hadn't happened I'd still be suspecting gac. And when I think about voting gac I realise I can't, because they're probably town, because of the Thing.

So... yeah. I think I just have to accept that this makes gac and Wombat not people we should consider killing any time soon, and just try to move on, hunt wolves, forget about everything else relating to this.

And we are not killing AV because of this, on principle as much as because I don't think it makes them a wolf.

[gac3]

It would be a pity if "All threats to town" is a common phrase for victory conditions.

But also I do agree with the "Gac is town" conclusion.

And yes this was the hilariously flimsy reason I suspected in my last post. Going to re-iterate what I said in Afterlife though, and say using text from role-pms as evidence is honestly not something I like at all, and in the spirit of the game any sort of copying or using text from role-pms is meh.

You seriously used that trick against me two games ago. Or town did collectively. AV very specifically did in as many words. It was nonsense then though because it was based off information town thought wolves didn't know but in actuality everyone knew and I just didn't realize town thought wolves wouldn't. Because I knew that info going into the game. I'm giving book credit because that wording stood out to me as odd when I read my role. I can't remember the last time that wording was used in town PM and then someone who frequently drops hints in opening posts puts the specific wording in? Absolutely going to give them credit. And that's why I said "AV might think I'm stupid, but AV would pick up what I meant." Maybe I overestimated AV but I don't think so.

If we lynch you and you're town, that tells us jack diddly squat about BW's alignment since you could've just been misclearing them. But if we lynch BW and they're town, that gives you major town points for defending them this hard. I don't think scum!gac would defend them this hard.

BW is clear. I refuse to give Rogan towncred for pointing it out, though; it's just as easy for a wolf to try and get towncred by admitting to seeing it as it is for a wolf to pretend not to see it and try for an easy mislynch.

Mrs. McGinty.

Except the whole thing only works if we work under the assumption wolves weren't given the town win condition verbatum. So as far as I'm concerned Rogan is either town or there's no reason to clear book.

Any reason for your new vote?

[3SecondCultist]

I agree on both counts.
It's simple, the victory condition of town wasn't made public as far as I know. It's literally impossible for a wolf to fake this without the risk of being wrong. And both Book and gac have been very clear about their stance.
If there is a wolf among them or they are a team, that's a huge risk. I'm willing to trust them.

Also, AV you played with Book in a wolf game. You mentioned yourself he was even more quiet than usual. You were evil yourself, if I recall correctly.

In conclusion:
AvatarVecna

Sure, it's literally impossible to fake without the risk of being wrong. It's also literally impossible for me to go onto a roof without the risk of falling to my death. That doesn't mean every time I go on a roof I'm automatically at risk of dying.

Pointed out now, I see what you're saying. It's more likely that BW is town than a wolf. But it's also possible that 'all threats to town' was a careful guess extrapolated in wolf chat based on the wolf's victory condition.

But to take this in a different direction: I would not vote AV for this. It's equally possible that she didn't see the trick, or that she didn't think that the trick was the proof you seem to claim that it is. Book being town does not make AV a wolf, or even the best wolf candidate today.

[Xumtiil]

Thought for a second I'd found a weird thing but it was just Xumtiil.

Notice me senpai!

I have to admit I missed Book's reference. He's so decisively null in most games that I tend to default to it until a day or two have passed.

Also, sudden flurry of activity woo - going to need a while to wrap my head around all the text and vote movements. Will update again in a few hours with my thoughts.

[3SecondCultist]

Spoiler: about the Thing

Show

So, yeah. I don't think the Thing should ever have been used. This is a game of figuring out who the wolves are because of what they post, what stances they take, who they attack and defend.

Not of "X is town because they know the secret message town knows and wolves don't". Taking that to its logical conclusion makes for a very boring game which wolves stand zero chance of winning.

But... I can't just pretend that none of this happened, that it doesn't tell me anything about gac's alignment or Wombat's.

Actually, no, there are worlds where Taffimai just gave wolves town's win condition for fakeclaiming purposes and this was all a crazy gambit on Wombat's behalf. I don't know whether I really believe that or whether I'm just using it as a way to pretend thus entire thing is NAI for all involved.

Except... I can't actually do that. Because if this whole thing hadn't happened I'd still be suspecting gac. And when I think about voting gac I realise I can't, because they're probably town, because of the Thing.

So... yeah. I think I just have to accept that this makes gac and Wombat not people we should consider killing any time soon, and just try to move on, hunt wolves, forget about everything else relating to this.

And we are not killing AV because of this, on principle as much as because I don't think it makes them a wolf.

I agree with snow on this 100%, suspected pocketing be damned.

[AvatarVecna]

Any reason for your new vote?

Why am I voting a person I've declared suspicion on? Gee that's a real stumper.

[3SecondCultist]

I'm going to need to try and do some re-reads on people. Back in a few hours with more thoughts!

Edit: Damn it, that was supposed to go with the first one but I keep getting ninja'd.

[gac3]

Spoiler: about the Thing

Show

So, yeah. I don't think the Thing should ever have been used. This is a game of figuring out who the wolves are because of what they post, what stances they take, who they attack and defend.

Not of "X is town because they know the secret message town knows and wolves don't". Taking that to its logical conclusion makes for a very boring game which wolves stand zero chance of winning.

But... I can't just pretend that none of this happened, that it doesn't tell me anything about gac's alignment or Wombat's.

Actually, no, there are worlds where Taffimai just gave wolves town's win condition for fakeclaiming purposes and this was all a crazy gambit on Wombat's behalf. I don't know whether I really believe that or whether I'm just using it as a way to pretend thus entire thing is NAI for all involved.

Except... I can't actually do that. Because if this whole thing hadn't happened I'd still be suspecting gac. And when I think about voting gac I realise I can't, because they're probably town, because of the Thing.

So... yeah. I think I just have to accept that this makes gac and Wombat not people we should consider killing any time soon, and just try to move on, hunt wolves, forget about everything else relating to this.

And we are not killing AV because of this, on principle as much as because I don't think it makes them a wolf.

Ugh. Where were you to defend the thing two games ago. Whatever.

[Rogan]

That I happened to be correct doesn't change the fact that you have zero ****ing basis for making any claims for understanding their wolf game when they don't have a wolfgame meta yet.

I had a wolf game with him. No, two.
From both of them, I remember him to be exceptionally quiet unless prodded.
It might not be the best database, but I don't care. It's not my whole point, it's supporting evidence.

[Snowblaze]

Fair enough on both counts, I suppose. I wonder if Persolus' towncred would apply to me as well, but I guess that might have to wait for the denouement on this whole tangle.

You can't get easy towncred by asking for it ;)

(I will let you know once I've actually read through your analysis beyond "hey, this contains questions for me, I should answer them".)

[AvatarVecna]

I had a wolf game with him. No, two.
From both of them, I remember him to be exceptionally quiet unless prodded.
It might not be the best database, but I don't care. It's not my whole point, it's supporting evidence.

Calling it evidence at all is dishonest. You've got two and a half data points, that hasn't graduated beyond coincidence. Until they've got a few more under their belt, how they play wolf is still pretty in flux.

[Rogan]

Calling it evidence at all is dishonest. You've got two and a half data points, that hasn't graduated beyond coincidence. Until they've got a few more under their belt, how they play wolf is still pretty in flux.

I've got the impression you are trying to derail the discussion by cherry picking.
I refuse to go on with this point.

[AvatarVecna]

I've got the impression you are trying to derail the discussion by cherry picking.
I refuse to go on with this point.

It might make me look scummier, but I'm not gonna let a bad argument just go by unchallenged.

[Xumtiil]

I just also want to point out there's a nonzero chance that not!town does not equal wolf. There could be neutrals, who also wouldn't know town's exact wincon.
Not claiming that AV is either since I know I'm town and I completely missed it, but there you are.

My reads so far:
Gac - Town or ballsy wolfplay
AV - Kinda sus, but not necessarily scum
Wombat - See Gac
Snow - Being her usual inquisitive self. NAI.
Xumtiil - Beetlejuice.
Cazero - New to me, towny nullish
Cultist - Only saw him in one game before which was a right mess. Towny null-ish so far.
Rogan - He caught the hint, which makes him likely town or the luckiest wolf.
Visor - Even though he's voting flat with me, could be an attempt to pocket me. Also, LA Rams. I don't do sports, so hard pass.
Hollowkatt - Interestingly I can't remember most of their posts without looking at them. Could be a very good wolf tactic, being present without offering content.
Mrs McGinty - Trying to engage? Many questions asked by and to, some not answered. Nullsus.
Cuthalion - Are they playing? Did they post? Can't remember. Sus.
Bladescape - Always a wolf until I see the corpse. And even then I'm not always convinced.
Persolus - See Cultist.
Murska - Voted for me, which I don't like. Understand why, which I do like. Nullish town, to spice things up a little.
Flat - Do you want a banana?

[Book Wombat]

Also, minor wolflean on Persolus for below quote.

Well, the issue with that is everyone is a threat to the town, if they play well/poorly enough.