Raging Loop

[Valmark]

Day 2 End.

Kindly stand by while the rope is being prepared...

[AvatarVecna]

Lmao spoke too soon rip

[Squork]

...A good try at dodging, buuuuut the situation proposed was AV as Badger and Illven as wolf claiming to lure out Crow. Because you were proposing that.

Bruhhhhh dude. You’ve been tunnelling after me all round and now you’re making stuff up? Taff was the one who brought that up in the first place lmao.

AV, not the best look on the quick switch, so I’d like a bit more rationale on the vote.

[AvatarVecna]

Bruhhhhh dude. You’ve been tunnelling after me all round and now you’re making stuff up? Taff was the one who brought that up in the first place lmao.

AV, not the best look on the quick switch, so I’d like a bit more rationale on the vote.

I post when I can on a busy day with limited internet. I saw the case, I nodded. I saw the discussion, I nodded. I voted cuz I smelled wet dog. Ain't that complicated.

[Squork]

Late in the round Chinese-Fire-Drills on random players are always super scummy, regardless of who leads them. By the time they start everyone’s already voiced their opinions, and it’s anti-town to put everyone on the spot like that where we’re most likely to make a bad decision. I’d be saying the same thing if it was anyone else who was being looked at but man, not a good look to start a wagon on made up BS.

[AvatarVecna]

Late in the round Chinese-Fire-Drills on random players are always super scummy, regardless of who leads them. By the time they start everyone’s already voiced their opinions, and it’s anti-town to put everyone on the spot like that where we’re most likely to make a bad decision. I’d be saying the same thing if it was anyone else who was being looked at but man, not a good look to start a wagon on made up BS.

Different strokes for different folks, I suppose. Over on MU, CFDs are basically the norm. The intent is that if villagers aren't feeling great about the wagons on display, just spend the last hour CFDing over and over. Doesn't matter if you even sus the person. If 5 people are jumping from wagon to wagon with little rhyme or reason, it's extremely nerve-wracking for wolves and likely to result in useful responses.

Of course, I'm not shifting for responses. I'm already on record as not liking either of these wagons.

[Valmark]

Spoiler: Vote list

Show

- 1 For Cazero (JeenLeen)
- 4 for Zelphas (Squork, Lady Serpentine, Snowblaze, Xihirli)
- 54 for Xihirli (bladescape, Cazero, Taffimai, JeenLeen, Zelphas)
- 1 for Armonia 13 (AvatarVecna)
- 1 for Squork (AvatarVecna)

When sunset approaches, again it's time to kill. At the beginning it looks like someone is going to be hanged, but then another one tries unsuccesfully to rally support behind themselves to squish the perceived opposition.

Debate ensues, and in the aftermath an even spread has formed both calling for the death of their once friend. By an air's breadth, and a good dose of luck, Xihirli survives over her opponent.

If there was to be any joy at the idea of surviving it is rapidly erased by the knowledge that the winners have to get blood on their hands.

Zelphas has been hanged.

Night 2 START

guys seriously the votes cross them

[Squork]

Different strokes for different folks, I suppose. Over on MU, CFDs are basically the norm. The intent is that if villagers aren't feeling great about the wagons on display, just spend the last hour CFDing over and over. Doesn't matter if you even sus the person. If 5 people are jumping from wagon to wagon with little rhyme or reason, it's extremely nerve-wracking for wolves and likely to result in useful responses.

Of course, I'm not shifting for responses. I'm already on record as not liking either of these wagons.

I’m fine with a CFD on someone who’s been sussed all game or has proper reasoning behind it. The problem is when you take someone that has a majority townlean and try to randomly vote them out for reasoning that makes absolutely no sense. I definitely have sirens going on LS now because of it, but I’ll have to check when I get home to see how it works with my notes.

- - - Updated - - -

Alright AV, was Zelph scum?

[AvatarVecna]

Zelphas has been hanged.

(Hooooo boy. Werewolf.)

[Squork]

(Hooooo boy. Werewolf.)

Alright, considering my work done to get zelph out, I think that completely clears me for this round at least.

[flat_footed]

[AvatarVecna]

*presses X*

[Xihirli]

(Hooooo boy. Werewolf.)

Hmmmmmmm.
I trust that as much as I'm a banana.

[AvatarVecna]

Hmmmmmmm.
I trust that as much as I'm a banana.

Nope nope nope we are not bringing back fruit scries from Normal Werewolf.

[Xihirli]

I think it was fun!

[Snowblaze]

EOD vote counts:

Spoiler: Day One

Show

- 5 for Illven (Zelphas, AvatarVecna, bladescape, JeenLeen, Snowblaze)
- 1 for Armonia13 (Illven)
- 4 for Zelphas (Illven, Lady Serpentine, Taffimai, Persolus)
- 2 for Snowblaze (Book Wombat, Xihirli)
- 1 for AV (Cazero)

Spoiler: Day Two

Show

- 1 For Cazero (JeenLeen)
- 4 for Zelphas (Squork, Lady Serpentine, Snowblaze, Xihirli)
- 54 for Xihirli (bladescape, Cazero, Taffimai, JeenLeen, Zelphas)
- 1 for Armonia 13 (AvatarVecna)
- 1 for Squork (AvatarVecna)

Since we'll need those for reference at some point.

otoh, assuming Crow!AV:
- towncred for Ti, she's a known busser but I don't think her treatment of Zelphas looked like a bus;
- level 0 analysis says Taffimai and Squork get towncred as well but I'd need to actually verify that
- I think Jeen looks substantially worse for claiming to want Zelphas dead but never actually voting him

Bear in mind that given wolf!AV we could be at 7:4 rn which would make tomorrow LyLo. I do think Crow!AV worlds are significantly more likely but we can't just ignore the possibility we could be about to lose.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: Zelphas ISO

Show

The game is up! And apparently the discussion is about hockey...

I was going to forgo my normal random rolling and tap Book Wombat early to see if we could get more from them at the start, but I don't really want to add a second vote to anyone yet. In an attempt to follow the spirit of what I was hoping to do, I'll stick my initial vote on Ilven just for a moment.

I may be completely misremembering how much or little Ilven speaks; if so, I apologize.

Didn't Jeen mention this could be distancing from Wombat? Worth noting atp.

Good grief, it was a bad time to not be here for most of the "day". Or maybe good, since Ilven was possibly Badger as long as AvatarVecna is Crow?

Either way, lots to look over. I can hopefully look over and respond to some of the questions/concerns directed towards me and come up with some reads for Day 2.

Says nothing about possible partners.

Okay, looking through the discussion from yesterday a little bit more, it seems like the main question was seeming distancing from Book Wombat and the fact that Ilven claimed Crow after votes stuck on them. I should learn to stop trying to explain my thought process before I'm asked; it never ends well for me.

I'm going to plan on getting preliminary reads up on remaining players in the next 24 hours or so, hopefully.

Okay, no, scratch that, Wombat is town. That's a wolf thinking "this proves I'm not distancing from this townie, so people will stop suspecting me now!"

I know myself in these games well enough to know that I get analysis paralysis and/or too busy right as the Days end, so I don't like making a post without a vote. As a quiet player without any real heat on them at the moment, Book Wombat is far from the best place for my vote to rest at the end of the day once things are more talked through, but they are a safe place for my vote to rest for town; if they become a point of discussion, it's almost certainly because they gave a tell as scum, and so my vote boosts a needed wagon. If they aren't mention, my vote won't be a part of any wagon, and therefore won't get in the way of the rest of town catching a wolf.

That being said, let's see if I can put together some ideas for what I actually think is going on.

Persolus - Dead town, according to AvatarVecna.

bladescape - As cryptic as ever. Possible soft snake claim, though that might just be their gut/deduction skills. Faint townlean, though I admit there's nothing to support this aside from vibes.

Xihirli - Stated at the bottom of page 1 her playstyle, and seems to be following it... which works just as well if she's town as if she's wolf. Null.

AvatarVecna - Counterclaimed Crow. Has been one of the most active players so far, with plenty of information and argument. I'm leery of trusting a contentious flip in this game, when we have no confirmation of kills aside from one person's word. This should be a townlean, but ends up as null due to paranoia.

Ilven - Dead Badger, according to AvatarVecna.

Zelphas - Town, no special roles.

Snowblaze - One of the most active players on the thread, who is currently tunneling on me. I think I always townlean Snowblaze, and that still holds true here.

Book Wombat - Has the same number of posts I had before this one... which is to say, three. Null; not enough information.

JeenLeen - Another one of the active posters, with lots of information in each post. I like information, and what they've posted seems solid. Townlean for the moment.

Cazero - Not a big poster at first, but more posts as time went by; though a lot of it is in response to JeenLeen's question. Slight wolflean, maybe just convinced by others' arguments; shifting my vote here.

Taffimai - Another major poster, giving good ideas and questions. Townlean for the same reason I'm townleaning JeenLeen.

Armonia13 - Still no posts. Null.

Squork - New but seasoned player, which is interesting. Lots of solid analysis (one of which puts me in a bad position, but there's not much I can do about my Day 1 vote at this point). Solid townlean.

LadySerpentine - Doesn't post as often as some (more often than many, myself included), but when they do post, it's nearly always lots of info. Their vote on Squork is mostly extrapolations and suppositions rather than solid facts, but it seems at least thought out. Townlean.

So, that's it from me at the moment, such as it is.

Right, cool, I will dig into this.

- saying bladescape was possibly softing Snake TMIs me town (can I invoke that myself? Doing it anyway).

- Cazero vote... feels mildly unpairing? It's probably his best shot at getting a counterwagon to himself at this point, I think a wolf would be more likely to try and get a townie wagoned than a partner.

- "townlean for the moment" on Jeen feels hedgy; gut says could be TMI and not wanting to commit to a hard townread on a partner, brain says that's not necessarily valid

- shading Ti's Squork vote is duly noted

Too tired/discombobulated to formulate full arguments at the moment, and unsure of when the Day will end.

Self-preservation vote on Xihirli looks like what I have to do.

Says nothing about partners.

Conclusions: Wombat and Cazero probably town. Potential partner equity with Jeen, Squork.

Only five posts so I'll get a lot more from how other people treated Zelphas, which may make this slightly irrelevant. Still, it's quick to do.

[Taffimai]

otoh, assuming Crow!AV:

Was there going to be another hand?

[Snowblaze]

Was there going to be another hand?

If by that you mean "am I going to look at wolf!AV worlds", then at some point, yes, but rn I think it's more productive to look at the scenario I think is more likely.

[AvatarVecna]

- I think Jeen looks substantially worse for claiming to want Zelphas dead but never actually voting him

Not just that. If JeenLeen had remembered to cross out their old vote, it would've been Xihirli 5/Zelphas 4, instead of tied at 4 with Zelphas reaching 4 first.

- - - Updated - - -

Bear in mind that given wolf!AV we could be at 7:4 rn which would make tomorrow LyLo. I do think Crow!AV worlds are significantly more likely but we can't just ignore the possibility we could be about to lose.

Spoiler: quick math

Show

N2: Starts 7-4, NK, ends 6-4
D3: Starts 6-4, NK, ends 5-4
N3: Starts 5-4, NK, ends 4-4
D4: Starts 4-4

I checked recruitment for endgame rules, and it's "when wolf victory is inevitable". If we wanna be technical, the tie rules where it's first past the post means that 4-4 is hypothetically winnable for town if they can all get on a wolf before all the wolves can get on a townie. Ofc this is also dependent on the baner failing to block both nights (which admittedly feels like a safe bet in most games). But even worst-case scenario from your perspective, I think tomorrow can't technically be LYLO. It would've been if Armonia auto'd and flipped town, but no autolynch occurred so.

It's probably valuable to y'all to treat tomorrow as if it were essentially LYLO, but don't be surprised if I'm not matching your energy. That's gonna be when the MU game day is ending and it's probably gonna get busy.

[Valmark]

Night 2 END

This time, there's not much surprise. You don't see four of your friends die without realizing how it's going to work whenever someone doesn't show up.

Homewever, the fundamental difference is that whoever doesn't show up in the morning was likely to be a friend. When the door is broken down, you find the body similarly mutilated- it is with a heavy heart that you start picking up the pieces, slowly trying to figure out who was killed while those with weaker stomaches simply dig a grave.

Xihirli has been killed in her sleep.

Day 3 START
It shall end in 44 hours, or homewever close to that I can make it.

(44 instead of 48 'cause it's 1:30 AM and I'd rather have the day end when I've got more time to track down the votes).

[bladescape]

Lmao.

That happened.

- - - Updated - - -

AV what was Xi?

[AvatarVecna]

(Villager.)

[bladescape]

Today should have a very small pool of people to go after.

I would like some other people to chime in before I say anything more for raisins.tm

- - - Updated - - -

If AV is crow then Taffi is decently likely a wolf.

Actually Taffi is decently likely a wolf anyway.

[JeenLeen]

FYI: I was offline most of the weekend and just now catching up.
Initial thoughts on flips: Zelphas is a dead wolf. Xi dying means we don't waste today debating if she's the lynch target for today or not. It's strange to me that the wolves would have killed someone with so much heat, but my guess is that they didn't want to risk her actually being the seer. If AV is honest, they hit a vanillager and I reckon Xi was looking like a seer to draw the wolves' fire and protect the real seer. Good job, Xihirli; your sacrifice enables us to spend today really wolfhunting instead of putting you on trial.

Squork is town since he led getting Zelphas dead.
Xi flipping wolf makes me question bladescape more, but I want to reread how D2 went down.

otoh, assuming Crow!AV:
- towncred for Ti, she's a known busser but I don't think her treatment of Zelphas looked like a bus;
- level 0 analysis says Taffimai and Squork get towncred as well but I'd need to actually verify that
- I think Jeen looks substantially worse for claiming to want Zelphas dead but never actually voting him

Bear in mind that given wolf!AV we could be at 7:4 rn which would make tomorrow LyLo. I do think Crow!AV worlds are significantly more likely but we can't just ignore the possibility we could be about to lose.

<snip>

Conclusions: Wombat and Cazero probably town. Potential partner equity with Jeen, Squork.

Did I ever say I wanted Zelphas dead?
I know I said I think the seer should scry Zelphas or Cazero if both survive the lynch, but I don't think I said I definitely wanted Zephas dead. If I did, though, please quote me as I possibly did forget and it's late and I'm not rereading all my posts now. Rather, I'm trying to find an inconsistency in your statements and the facts.

That said, yeah, seriously Not a Good Look for me. I screwed up D2, both in reading folk right and in forgetting to cross out my vote, but I'm glad the latter screwup kinda rectified the first one.
For what it's worth, I voted Xi because I felt she was a wolf setting up a fake seer claim, like folk thought AV might've been doing with Crow, plus the TMI stuff bladescape and Snowblaze mentioned made sense.

I still find Cazero iffy from N1 and D2 stuff hasn't changed that. I don't rule out Cazero and Zelphas both being wolves. Note that D1 Cazero voted AV instead of voting Zelphas. Maybe I'll change my vote once I sleep and reread, but I think nothing has changed to make me trust him more.
Snowblaze, when you write "Wombat and Cazero probably town. Potential partner equity with Jeen, Squork" do you mean you think Squork and I are scumbuddies?

[Squork]

I'm running under the assumption that AV is in fact the crow for the purposes of this post. I'll find some time and see whether or not that's truly the case later. Here's the roster as of now:

Spoiler

Show

- Persolus
- bladescape
- Xihirli
- AvatarVecna
- Illven Badger
- Zelphas Scum
- Snowblaze
- Book Wombat
- JeenLeen
- Cazero
- Taffimai
- Armonia13 Flat_footed
- Squork
- Lady Serpentine

Assuming the 3+1 configuration from previous discussions, we have 2 scum and 8 town. Really good shape for the town right now.

Going back to this past vote count, we have the two main wagons:

Zelph - Me, LS, Snow, Xihi and
Xihi - Blade, Caz, Taff, Zelph

Stragglers - JL, AV, Armonia/FF

Compare this to the previous nights vote:

Il - Zelph, AV, Blade, JL, Snow
Zelph - Il, LS, Taff, Pers

Stragglers - Il, Book, Xihi, Caz, Armonia/FF, Me

Going back to my previous post talking about wagonomics, etc., I think Blade and JL are clean, and I'm assuming AV is Crow.

JL, Blade, AV. I'm also going to advise that I be put in this group as well, from the work I've put in, etc.

I had a main group of three where I said I figured at least one, but probably two of the three were scum: LS, Taff and Xihi. LS voted Zelph both rounds, which does look good but she also tunnelled me the entire round, and made crap up about me. I can accept that she made a mistake and thought that Taff’s post was mine, but there is almost always real scum in every main wagon. In R1, the non-confirmed players on the main wagons had LS and Taff on one side, with Snow on the other. In R2, it was LS and Snow on one side, with Caz, Taff and Zelph on the other. I think today we should be deciding what happens to LS, and currently I’m in favour of lynching her out. At the very least, it provides some insight towards Caz, Snow and Taff from vote counts alone.

Lady Serpentine

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I still find Cazero iffy from N1 and D2 stuff hasn't changed that. I don't rule out Cazero and Zelphas both being wolves. Note that D1 Cazero voted AV instead of voting Zelphas. Maybe I'll change my vote once I sleep and reread, but I think nothing has changed to make me trust him more.
Snowblaze, when you write "Wombat and Cazero probably town. Potential partner equity with Jeen, Squork" do you mean you think Squork and I are scumbuddies?

On D1, I don't actually hate Caz voting AV because he did so during the chaos. As I said before, it makes the most sense that wolves would stay away from voting either of them during that time because it can be so AI, and they would want to avoid lynching the badger. Caz may have tried to vote where he knew there wouldn't be a wagon, but that's a really risky play if others latch on. I have him as a TP lean for now because I'm not convinced he'd be that slimy lol.

[Snowblaze]

Morning. Busy again today but should be able to do a lot more work on this RL-tomorrow assuming I don't collapse from exhaustion in the meantime.

Jeen: "partner equity with Jeen, Squork" means that based on Zelphas's ISO I think he has a decent possibility of being partnered with you or Squork.

And I don't think you ever literally said "I want Zelphas dead" but you were the first to make a case against him and a lot of his voters (me, for one) used your arguments as part of their justification.

Also I am... wondering whether it would be best to have Snake claim today. If AV is a wolf then we need to know that today because otherwise non-technically-but-highly-probably LyLo and we can't kill the one wolf we could easily find.

If AV isn't a wolf then at least we know we can trust the flips to date and wolves will have to play WIFOM with Spider over which confirmed town to try and kill, and also we're actually in a pretty good position.

Can I get thoughts on that, please?

Also also Xihirli kill is Weird(TM). Level 0 analysis says it implicates AV, but that descends into WIFOM very quickly so I don't know how much I actually believe it. Jeen's explanation is invalid because if Xihirli was Seer then the result she was softing is "AV is a wolf".

Also also also explain Taffimai, bladescape?

[bladescape]

Also also also explain Taffimai, bladescape?

Taffi loves to play "case people when my partner is under fire" as wolf. Note the cases as Zelph got heat. On not Zelph.

Also Snake should claim today yes.

[AvatarVecna]

Mild scumleans on blade snow and JL

[bladescape]

Mild scumleans on blade snow and JL

Yes, yes, I know you're not town already.

Don't worry we'll get to that.

- - - Updated - - -

Though I do feel sorry for your situation.

Maybe we can leave you alive to scurry off for next time.

[AvatarVecna]

Yes, yes, I know you're not town already.

Don't worry we'll get to that.

- - - Updated - - -

Though I do feel sorry for your situation.

Maybe we can leave you alive to scurry off for next time.

*rolls eyes*

There's at least one scum on Illvens wagon, just by virtue of being counter to Zelphas. One of yall is hiding fur, guaranteed.