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Thread: Raging Loop
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2023-02-06, 07:19 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
Hmm, actually there is a world that exists where my ominous statement is hilariously wrong.
I just realised that.
But also seems like a far fetch so maybe not.
- - - Updated - - -
I am still waiting for some other people to show up and say things before I go any further tho."Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2023-02-06, 07:56 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jul 2011
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Re: Raging Loop
Well, since you ask so nicely, how could I refuse?
AvatarVecna is definitively a wolfing wolf what wolfs. So, we got lucky in one way from the debacle of D1 - AV isn't Badger so that wasn't a wasted scry -, but unlucky in another, in that Badger is definitely in contact with wolves now and has been since N1. (This, incidentally, explains the reason wolves were willing to risk it: Decent odds of getting Crow killed and they get a replacement unless we win the coinflip.)
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2023-02-06, 08:12 AM (ISO 8601)
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"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2023-02-06, 08:14 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jul 2011
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Re: Raging Loop
You as town. Can't be more specific than that even if you wanted me to be; I don't get role information.
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2023-02-06, 08:35 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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Re: Raging Loop
S'all good.
AvatarVecna
I figured after the night kill that AV wasn't town."Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2023-02-06, 09:17 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2009
Re: Raging Loop
Mechanics note/'correct me if I'm wrong': if AV is a wolf and thus Badger is alive, the seer would get Badger as "town" since they don't get roles, just alignment.
Correct?
Will read more and respond more later, but if nobody counterclaims Lady Ti, then AV.
Still not settled on Cazero, but, yeah, let's eliminate the misinformation strain first.
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2023-02-06, 09:18 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2023-02-06, 09:39 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2009
Re: Raging Loop
Today's busy, so I might not have time to really look over things until this afternoon. But I did a little more thinking:
If no counterclaim and no reason to suspect Lady Ti,
- Likely a strong wolf team alive (3 wolves + Badger). Other counts possible, but 3 seems a likely number.
- We know the NKs are town. We know Illven was Crow. The only thing we're ignorant about is Zelphas' true alignment.
- We know bladescape and Lady Ti are town.
- We know AV is wolf.
We should analyze who Zelphas-as-wolf incrimiantes/vindicates in case he really was Town. Squork and I are obvious there, but I reckon there's others as well.
Question: is it good to do analysis now to figure out who we want to lynch D4? Or would doing that help the wolves aim tonight's kill too much?
Part of me feels like, if we know AV is wolf, we can let her sit impotent on the sidelines and use today to find another wolf. But as she herself noted, it might be close to game over, so we do need to lynch her today even if we'd likely get more info voting elsewhere.
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2023-02-06, 10:19 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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Re: Raging Loop
There's another obvious wolf but we should get AV today.
Do not underestimate their ability to mess with people."Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2023-02-06, 11:06 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Raging Loop
Yeah, we definitely need to kill AvatarVecna. Assuming no counterclaim of Seer (yup, claiming not-Seer here)... I vaguely thought about wolf!AV worlds earlier, let's see:
- had bladescape in POE, but he's confirmed town now so that's out
- I think Taffimai looks townier, since wolves' D1 agenda was presumably "get Ilven mislynched" which her play doesn't line up with, except:
- ...wait a second, didn't AV just say there had to be a wolf in me/bladescape/Jeen specifically because that was D1 Ilven wagon, and isn't that now consisting of me, confirmed town and person I don't suspect anywhere near as much now we don't have a Zelphas wolf flip?
What were wolves doing D1, then? I need to check vote counts and stuff again. That aside:
- I think Squork looks substantially worse given wolf!AV
- kind of want to give Cazero town points for voting AV D1 but not sure that's actually valid
- associations are probably horrifically messed up, because it's AV and they knew they would eventually be outed from D1 onwards.
Okay, vague gut thoughts done, will dig into proper analysis at some indefinite point depending on how much mental energy I have left by the time RL craziness is finally over.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
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2023-02-06, 11:19 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
There is the possibility of Badgerscape, but I don't think it's a high likelihood, since he was pushing AV as wolf hard today before I claimed. And I don't think a wolf team with Bladescape on it kills the other frontrunner for yesterday's lynch, who was just trying to implicate AV.
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2023-02-06, 11:32 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2014
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Re: Raging Loop
I'll keep my tinfoil for myself for now.
Voting AV.Yes, I am slightly egomaniac. Why didn't you ask?
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2023-02-06, 12:39 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2023
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Re: Raging Loop
Ah well, I can see why this would be the case, but that's what I get for trusting AV lol. Guess I haven't been hunting as well as I thought I was. I'm going to wait to see if anyone else claims Seer before changing my vote, but AV works in my vote count reasoning almost as well as LS did. Had me fooled lol.
Do you think this makes Zelph town then?
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2023-02-06, 01:41 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
You owe me an apology for the hideous misrep, also you're assuming here that on D1 I pushed my scumbuddy Zelphas over the two potential Badgers. It is indeed hilariously wrong in both worlds
AV The fact that there's no counterclaim means wolves don't want to set up a "let's kill both X and Serpentine bc Snake for two wolves is a great trade" situation. That or Snake hasn't looked at the thread yet but let's assume not. First of all my hopes that you were a wolf are squashed. I hope you get NKed.
More importantly, it likely means that Zelphas was indeed a wolf and they just can't afford to have the last one (bc AV is nr. 2) out themselves like that. Add to that the fact that AV, being a wolf who had to fake Crow, couldn't afford to sit there going "vanillager, vanillager,...", couldn't afford to declare anyone a role that might still be out there and could get counterclaimed, so had a very good reason to be truthful about the first wolf that died. I am running with this hypothesis.
Clearly that clears Squork (and anyway my cases yesterday were crap, first of all because AV liked them and secondly because if the counterclaimer was a wolf there was no D1 confusion in the wolfteam at all).
Now let's look at the following:The presumably town who has been softing Snake, the chainsaw defense, the partner for rule of three (and if I'm correct in this AV will hate the fact that she got caught doing something she taught me to look for).
Hope springs eternal. When I'm dead I'm going to ask Xihirli whether my "she might be VT trying to get NKed" read was correct and if I was I will do a little dance of "yay at least I wasn't a complete idiot".
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Actually I haven't considered the possibility that Snake was one of the NKs. Which would be funny and tragic. But wolves wouldn't know about that, so I guess they wouldn't try something this bold?78% of DM's started their first campaign in a tavern. If you're one of the 22% that didn't, copy and paste this into your signature.
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2023-02-06, 03:38 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
I'll be surprised if Snake was nked.
Pers wasn't snaking and Xi would've 100% claimed when it looked like she was going over.
I will say that I didn't double check d1 and in AV crow worlds Taffi actually had some good points. Got lost in the sauce on that one. D2 play was remoniscent of how she handled a wolf buddy in another game and I didn't due diligence d1.
Also Zelph was not a wolf.
AV clearly wants us to think he was but tbh I believe that is intended misdirection to guide today's wagons."Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2023-02-06, 05:40 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
No, it wasn't. You have seen me wolf exactly once. In that game, only once was a wolf buddy in danger while I was alive, and I joined an existing counterwagon, then defended my buddy and discredited the arguments against him. In turbos I think I've consistently bussed. My only other wolf game was AV's bastard game where I didn't know who the other wolves were.
You're mixing it up with what happened later in the game when you were very confidently pushing who you thought was a wolf, there was a counterwagon and I attempted to create a third, which pinged you. What you forget is that the one you were pushing was town and had softed PR. The counterwagon was also town and already had two other wolves on it.
You have played more games with me than literally anybody else and seeing you try to misyeet me based on bad meta is frustrating, please restrict your arguments to events from this game alone.78% of DM's started their first campaign in a tavern. If you're one of the 22% that didn't, copy and paste this into your signature.
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2023-02-06, 06:03 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2023-02-06, 06:16 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
Snake being NKed is incompatible with any world where AV is Crow, and I don't see a world where a non-Crow AV is town. But I'm going to include them for completeness.
Option 1: I'm a wolf, AV is Crow
In this scenario, D1 was a battle between Badger, a wolf, and Crow. And I immediately switched my vote off Badger onto the wolf, then disappeared for the rest of the day. D2, I came in relatively early, voted for my wolfbuddy again when there was a different wagon availabe that was trying to lynch the only outed townie, and then refused to switch off that wagon when said outed townie suggested it.
I have a deserved reputation as a busser, but I had ample opportunity to avoid it this time around. That said, this might make somewhat more sense in worlds where Taffimai and I are both wolves? D1 is still a mess, but with Zelphas as a frontrunner two days in a row I could see refusing that offer as a distancing ploy when I'd already decided to bus.
On the other hand, in this scenario, we know for a fact that Snake hasn't died yet because AV has been faithfully reporting flips. So I'm a wolf in a world where we're down a wolf and Badger outing myself to... What benefit? In the hopes that Crow, who provides an informational benefit that's standard for most games, will get lynched before Snake notices and I die?
Option 2: I'm Badger, AV is a wolf
In this scenario, I've managed to completely fail to get in contact with the wolves N1 and N2 despite active discussion in thread of how AV could have been signalling to Badger and the fact that AV was, in fact, signalling Badger. I am now attempting to lynch the person I believe to Crow, by claiming Snake when I believe that Snake has not been NKed, by claiming Snake.
This is a truly bizarre chain of ****-ups that still results in us lynching a wolf.
Option 3: I'm a wolf, AV is Badger
In this scenario, AV badly misplayed D1 and then got spectacularly unlucky. The only way that it's not obvious to the wolves that Crow is Badger is is Zelphas was a wolf. So, rather than signalling to wolves D1 with someone who almost certainly wasn't wolf or monkey, AV delayed that a day and then accidentally got it right, thereby "confirming" Crow status.
This has the problems of other worlds where Zelphas and I are wolves and the problem that as far as I know Snake is alive to counterclaim me.
Option 4: AV and I are both wolves
This would make this whole affair staged, presumably including yesterday's sparring as distancing. The question why, because it probably kills me, and kills a wolf with no flip and no fake flip to confirm it and get me town points. Unless Flat is a wolf who's been very quiet and we try to sell that as a surprise Crow, but... Why?
The only way this works is for wolfteam to be convinced that Illven was Badger and Flat is the real Crow. But the only way to reach that conclusion is that Badger hasn't been put in contact with them, which is explained by Flat being Badger too. And Spider was not on Flat last night, so if they did think Flat was Crow, why not just shoot there?Last edited by Lady Serpentine; 2023-02-06 at 06:16 PM.
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2023-02-06, 06:33 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
78% of DM's started their first campaign in a tavern. If you're one of the 22% that didn't, copy and paste this into your signature.
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2023-02-06, 07:12 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
I'm here, from what I see I guess AvatarVecna?
Fleeting dreams of paper wings.
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2023-02-06, 09:56 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2009
Re: Raging Loop
AV has gone silent. I think that in part confirms her wolfiness. Yeah, could be real life, but I think she'd chime in something to her defense if she felt she had any. If AV were Crow, she would have argued her case. So AV is a wolf.
Lady Serpentine is the seer unless the wolves fakeclaimed seer, planning to kill their fake Crow, with an extremely lucky guess that one of their kills is the true seer.
Illven, Xihirli, and Zelphas were not seer or they would've claimed seer. I don't think the wolves would gamble it all on Persolus being the seer.
So I think it's about 99% likelihood Lady Serpentine is seer. If we trusted AV on looser ground, we should trust Lady Ti.
I'm not sure.
I think D1 is very muddy. Wolves want Ilven lynched. Thus, they have a motivation to protect Zelphus regardless of if he's town or wolf.
For D2, we definitely learn more if we know Zelphus' alignment. I look very bad if he's wolf. You look bad if he's town (or at least you lose the towncred you got for the lynch.) I'm sure there's analysis to make on others.
But I think we still can know a lot without knowing Zelph's true alignment. Because we know what the wolves wanted us to believe about Zelph's alignment.
The next question is why the wolves wanted us to believe that, or at least why they wanted us to think they want us to believe that, which I think we can deduce (or at least get a couple likely possibilities) even if it trudges into heavy WIFOM territory. I think discussing it in detail today will help the wolves aim their kill tonight more than it'll help Town, so I'm not going to elaborate.
I don't like Taffimai's confidence that Zelphas is wolf and Squork town, but I think it's coming from a sincere place.
I'm unwilling to think Taffimai is a wolf due to D1. Even if the wolves were debating it internally, I don't think that would have spilt over into the public forum. Plus, it was likely to get Taffimai lynched if AV does convince the town AV is Crow; AV was pushing Taffimai as scumbuddies with Illven.
I also don't like your confidence that Zelph was not a wolf, but at least I know your statement comes from a Town stance.
I'd like to hear your theory next Day.
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2023-02-06, 10:25 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2023-02-07, 12:03 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
There are worlds where wolf!AV does that but it just doesn't feel like one of them.
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2023-02-07, 02:27 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
Okay, let's do this.
I'm working under the assumption that Zelphas was town - both because of what bladescape said and because I'd expect wolf!AV, in a flipless game and knowing they were mechanically doomed, to not shut down the town counterwagon to their partner like they did to the Xihirli wagon.
Ti is Seer unless counterclaimed, and we have me/bladescape/JeenLeen/Wombat/Taffimai/Cazero/Squork all checking in without counterclaiming, and AV clearly isn't Seer so there's only flat left as a possibility.
Given that bladescape is town (or Badger, theoretically, but even if he is we can still win with him alive so I don't think that's a priority).
Now. What, exactly, were wolves doing D1? I will reread.
Oh, and also: sorry Ilven. I mean, it was AV's fault but I still should have realised the soft thing you did made your claim significantly more likely to be real. ftr I had no problems with your reads and wouldn't have voted you without the whole counterclaim situation.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
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2023-02-07, 02:46 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
I'll also say Sorry Ilven. I thought AV would do something different if wolf but I hadn't thought about the value of nabbing Badger contact and forcing Crow out.
Wasn't until last night that I realised how wrong I was lol."Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2023-02-07, 02:56 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
Okay, having reread D1 I have reached few conclusions about wolves' overall strategy. I have concluded that Taffimai is town-or-Badger since I highly doubt she raises the possibility of fakeclaiming wolf before AV even commits to it, never mind encouraging a plan that would have led to not getting the Ilven flip AV was after.
Cazero voting AV is... probably towny but confidence is kind of low, I would appreciate more thoughts on him.
My concern about "shouldn't wolves be on the Ilven wagon?" still more or less stands, though with the note I hadn't realised just how many people were afk from the counterclaim until EOD. So maybe that would explain it.
And let's have some more Squork talk (yes, I am doing that to annoy our resident outed wolf).
Spoiler: waffly thoughts
I guess the thing is... the way Squork has been playing is kind of pure-logic, if that makes sense. "There must always be at least one wolf on this wagon". Which is all very well, if it works, but those things aren't certainties. They're assumptions.
And the moment one assumption is wrong, the whole thing falls apart. (Yes, bladescape, I am thinking of my D2 from hydra game here.)
It also feels... kind of mechanical as a style of solving? How do I put this... just "X happened, therefore I think Y". Perfectly logical progression. I can't see anything fluid and dynamic, any paranoia or reevaluation or second-guessing of process.
And. Maybe these things are there, just happening behind the scenes where I can't see them. Or maybe this is just Squork's natural playstyle and it's just clash between our approaches to the game. But.
Paranoia, reevaluation, second-guessing of process are hard to fake. Whereas what Squork has done this game is not. It's easy to pretend to be a mechanical solving robot as a wolf, and even to select the perfectly logical arguments that just happen to support your wolfy agenda.
I can't really justify wolfreading Squork just for this, without prior knowledge of his town meta. But I think he has partner equity with AV independently of this, and there was a thing I'll quote in a bit that's a pretty good example of something along these lines that's actually wolfy.
And... POE, I guess, though I'm hesitant to invoke that given how many times my POEs have been wrong.
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Spoiler: Squork, mid-D2 to N2
Thinking AV was Crow is something I have no right to criticise. I'm not exactly sure where the assumption Ilven is an experienced player came from, but don't think digging into that is particularly productive; this is mostly just here to note progression.
Squork's mistake is pointed out to him. This feels a reasonable reaction to it in isolation, but...
Speculating about the more improbable possibilities. And then the second paragraph is what I mean by "pure-logic": "this singular assumption is wrong, so I am retracting that specific statement and replacing it by a pair of possibilities".
Also it feels like a slight disconnect between that and "totally messes with my reads".
And now turning around and explaining why they think AV isn't a wolf, based on the idea that Ilven could have been Badger. It was a risk for wolf!AV to do that but I think they probably are sure enough the Crow claim is real rather than Badger to take it.
So this just... feels like a way to reset reads to their prior state and come up with a new set of assumptions that justify townreading AV.
I'll confess I need to check exact context for D2 Squork case. First paragraph was a reply to Ti, second to AV trying to CFD Squork.
( Given the time left until EOD there was approximately zero chance of it actually getting Squork killed so I don't think it unpairs them.)
More pure logic. Maybe CFDs are anti-town (debatable, depends on circumstances) but anti-town does not equal wolfy. And I think arguing that it does is wolfy.
"Trying to CFD me is wolfy, so I have sirens going on... Ti. Not the person who actually started the CFD, the person who wolfreads me but specifically chose to not join it".
And suddenly there is not a flicker of doubt on AV's alignment. Just "the person I pushed flipped wolf, therefore I should be cleared". Never mind the only evidence that Zelphas did in fact flip wolf is in fact from the person who tried to start the wolfy CFD on him.
...okay, yeah, I actually have a pretty confident wolfread here. Would appreciate people checking over my case to see whether I'm just confbiasing or whether I'm actually onto something.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
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2023-02-07, 05:03 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
This is exactly why she would have told the truth, and I hope she's cackling while reading.
Meaningful look.
She didn't so much shut it down as feebly voice her belief Xihirli was town.
No, it's good, Squork is only clear if Zelphas was wolf, and that conversation I had with him and Serpentine did feel extremely wolfy.
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Why would she encourage and start a flash wagon on her teammate though.
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Btw you're twenty hours earler than expected, colour me surprised78% of DM's started their first campaign in a tavern. If you're one of the 22% that didn't, copy and paste this into your signature.
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2023-02-07, 05:35 AM (ISO 8601)
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"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
My almighty and all knowing extended Signature lies HERE! Now includes awesome quotes!
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2023-02-07, 05:43 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
78% of DM's started their first campaign in a tavern. If you're one of the 22% that didn't, copy and paste this into your signature.
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2023-02-07, 08:48 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
Reminder that the Day ends in a little less then 7 hours (warning since it's not two days and people might have forgotten).