Raging Loop

[JeenLeen]

No, it's good, Squork is only clear if Zelphas was wolf, and that conversation I had with him and Serpentine did feel extremely wolfy.

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Why would she encourage and start a flash wagon on her teammate though.

I also found it very odd that AV didn't vote Xihirli.
The more I think about it, the more this points to Zelphas as town. The lynch between Xi and Zelphas was very tight. I can get wolf!AV not wanting to vote Xi so as to avoid suspicion of seer-hunting. I can get wolf!AV not voting on the counterwagon to a scumbuddy lest she get tied to them. But it seems extreme for AV to stay off the Xi wagon when it meant both a seer candidate stayed alive AND her scumbuddy died.
Especially since AV was more likely to die to a seer-outting or Monkey-misread than analysis.

So I'm in the "Zelphas is town" camp now.

Regarding AV voting Squork... with how D2 was going down, I don't think it likely the Squork wagon was going to get high; or, at least, I can see AV thinking it was a safe vote that would do no harm but would help protect Squork when AV is discovered. He had decent towncred from everyone but Lady Serpentine, or so it seems from a quick reread. When Taffiami asks about others joining the wagon, we get this from AV:

If you both switched it'd go from 5-4-1 to 4-3-3, with the same person (Xi) leading the lynch. Squorks wagon failing to overcome the others just means the same lynch result as if we didn't do anything. May as well try, yknow?

While a literal reading is for lynching Squork, it reinforces the view that the wagon is pointless since Xi will die.
(Side note: Lady Ti would look iffy for similar reasons, but she's the seer so she gets a clear pass.)

Alright, considering my work done to get zelph out, I think that completely clears me for this round at least.

This line rubbed me wrong. It is objectively true, and there's nothing wrong with a player noting it, but something about Squork being the first one to note it feels like a wolf wanting to make sure they get their towncred.

[Squork]

I may look wolfy for trusting AV but I was genuinely just wrong. Me trying to defend it won’t do anything to fix it tho, so I’ll just expect to be the next lynch candidate and hope something I say is helpful to the town eventually.

Also to go back to the point of me “going back to trust AV,” I was gonna make another post assuming AV was scum, but started with that one because I had the notes for it from the rest of the game. Only thing is something came up in my personal life that I had to tend to and I couldn’t find the time to do it. I want to say I’ll do it at some point but I’m tired lol. I’ll try

AvatarVecna

[Taffimai]

I may look wolfy for trusting AV but I was genuinely just wrong. Me trying to defend it won’t do anything to fix it tho, so I’ll just expect to be the next lynch candidate and hope something I say is helpful to the town eventually.

Also to go back to the point of me “going back to trust AV,” I was gonna make another post assuming AV was scum, but started with that one because I had the notes for it from the rest of the game. Only thing is something came up in my personal life that I had to tend to and I couldn’t find the time to do it. I want to say I’ll do it at some point but I’m tired lol. I’ll try

AvatarVecna

Ok I sense the "I am slated for death anyway" dejection but it is in fact not a good time to give up. There are nine of us alive now. We kill AV, wolves dodge Spider again, that means tomorrow there are seven of us. If I am wrong about Zelphas (and I very well could be), we can afford only one more mistake. Don't make it easy on the remaining wolves to turn you into that mistake.

You're 99% sure AV is scum now, please make that post you had in mind. Your perspective might hit on the one thing we need to wrap this up. Even if we still kill you, I for one want to read that post. It also might help us find your teammate if you're a wolf, so I totally understand if you want to keep quiet in that case

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Also remember that as a top suspect you are likely to get scried tonight. You might be cleared tomorrow and get to ride it out. Please do not give up if you're town.

[Lady Serpentine]

Encouraging and starting a flash wagon seems fairly reasonable for that point in the game. AV is known to be an excellent player; this means that sometimes as wolf, it's going to be necessary to pretend to dislike some wagons you would love to have happen. Not reactively pointing at Xihirli gets towncred, trying to wagon Squork and failing unpairs them, and if AV noticed JeenLeen's error, there's a chance someone switching and then day ending does hit a seer candidate.

[Squork]

LS, when did you get your role PM?

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So because y'all think I'm scum, my reads are not useful in a flipless game. For that reason, I'll stick to strictly the facts, and let you make your own conclusions.

- Claims "I don’t fear death" from Xi is her town meta
- Ilven claims crow, AV “doubles down” on previous vote
- 2 posts and 6 hours later, AV counterclaims crow
- Spends the next 10+ posts explaining why AV=good, Il=bad
- Interestingly, these posts are all the longest ones she’s made this game by far, and in succession. This means that convincing the town has been (in her mind) the most important part of the game
- There was an angry cussy attack on Taff
- Claims they got their pm on the 27th, before the game started
- Hints at a Blaze role, but SB doesn’t get MKed surprisingly
- Joins a proposed CFD on me on made up reasoning (which LS has never addressed btw)

Opinion time: that last post and AV's willingness to change the wagon late makes me think that Zelph may actually have been scum, and AV was trying to save a teammate late.

[Valmark]

Spoiler: Vote count

Show

7 for AV (Lady Serpentine, bladescape, JeenLeen, Snowblaze, Cazero, Book Wombat, Squork)

Day 3 END

At sunset, hesitation is gone. The villagers now know how it works, and they know that the werewolves might be closing in on them as they speak.

So, when one claims to hear the voices of the Snake and says that they revealed a werewolf, it is with little delay that the victim is grabbed- there is no care for the unfortunate soul, no patience, no empathy. The rope is tightened stricter then is comfortable, and the victim that can't even breathe is hauled out down among the cheers of the murderers.

AvatarVecna has been has been hanged.

Night 3 START
It'll end in 24 hours.

[Lady Serpentine]

I see no reason I need to respond to a wolf's attempt to start a late-day wagon that I refused to join.

[Squork]

...A good try at dodging, buuuuut the situation proposed was AV as Badger and Illven as wolf claiming to lure out Crow. Because you were proposing that.

You still have yet to respond to the fact that this is a blatant lie.

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I see no reason I need to respond to a wolf's attempt to start a late-day wagon that I refused to join.

I really hope you investigated me, because you're very, very wrong,.

[Taffimai]

You still have yet to respond to the fact that this is a blatant lie.

You think that because in your mind, I'm the one who suggested the Illven as wolf scenario, but what you missed is that I did that in response to you calling her a powerwolf in this post:

Ah yes, fair point. I guess I haven't talked about that enough.

There are wagons and scum leans all the time in this game, especially D1. There were more than 24 hours left in that Day when Il panicked, and did so with only three votes on her. I would wager that with all that time, town would've found another person to vote just due to how fluid this game is. I also feel like Ilven is an experienced player. So if this is the case, why would she be so desperate to announce her role like this? It just doesn't make any sense, and looking back it seems like a powerwolf trying to take control of the town early. I think that's a much more likely situation than what you propose.

I suggest you reread the entire conversation from that point on with this in mind and I think it'll then make a lot more sense to you.

Either way, Serpentine is Snake barring very strange scenarios, so she's not trying to trick you.

[Squork]

You think that because in your mind, I'm the one who suggested the Illven as wolf scenario, but what you missed is that I did that in response to you calling her a powerwolf in this post:



I suggest you reread the entire conversation from that point on with this in mind and I think it'll then make a lot more sense to you.

Either way, Serpentine is Snake barring very strange scenarios, so she's not trying to trick you.

I understand what happened, and I mentioned it in a previous post. I know she made a mistake. The problem is she based her read on me from that, and now has it in her head that I'm scum, when I'm very not.

[Lady Serpentine]

I also had a read on you as wolf already, so saying I based it on that seems highly dubious.

...also, re-reading, your theoretical "just the facts" list is misleading on account of claiming that AV joined the late-day switch she started, and that she was using made-up reasoning when she did not propose any reasoning at all beyond "I think the frontrunners are town and it won't matter if we fail".

[Snowblaze]

Squork: basically seconding what Taffimai said about not giving up if you're town, with the addition that I very much could be wrong about you but the only way I'm going to be able to figure that out is if you keep solving.

[Valmark]

I just realized that Night ends right in the middle of training tonight, so expect a couple hours of delay in ending it.

[bladescape]

Spider should always be on Ti btw.

I would also be careful of reading AV for interactions with wolves, they be a canny foe.

[Squork]

Squork: basically seconding what Taffimai said about not giving up if you're town, with the addition that I very much could be wrong about you but the only way I'm going to be able to figure that out is if you keep solving.

Ehhhh it’s less giving up and more that the rest of the town stopped posting so I have nothing else to go off of. I did mention at the beginning that JL strikes me as the type of player that doesn’t last more than 3 rounds unless he’s scum, and he has been awfully quiet of late.

[JeenLeen]

If I survive the Night, I'll explain why it felt worth posting this tonight.

Ehhhh itÂ’s less giving up and more that the rest of the town stopped posting so I have nothing else to go off of. I did mention at the beginning that JL strikes me as the type of player that doesnÂ’t last more than 3 rounds unless heÂ’s scum, and he has been awfully quiet of late.

I feel like the last Day and this Night are all essentially "this Night" for terms of how much talking helps, at least once AV was outted and we talked about the initial implications of that. I don't want to help the wolves figure out everyone's opinion, or have a solid guess on who Lady Ti is likely to scry. That just helps them aim their kill this Night.
Hence staying quiet. Plus real life stuff has had me busy. I actually have been able to read up last night, and I should be active the upcoming Day. (Though depending on when exactly Night ends, it might be tomorrow morning my-time before I post more.)

Also remember that as a top suspect you are likely to get scried tonight. You might be cleared tomorrow and get to ride it out. Please do not give up if you're town.

I really hope you investigated me, because you're very, very wrong,

I didn't like Squork or Taffimai's talk about scry targets.

[Taffimai]

Just in case, an ordered reads list:

Town because cleared barring shenanigans I don't want to contemplate, other townreads, town but tinfoil, wolves be here


Serpentine, Bladescape

Wombat: I know he has posted very little and this will confuse Squork and other newcomers, but Wombat is so pure that spring water brands are competing to sign him up for their next commercial. I would kill everyone who isn't mech cleared over Wombat. Sheep me.

Cazero: Remember how I put Cazero in my solve because he showed a willingness to entertain town/town claimants D1? We now know that wasn't the case, and I don't think a wolf would have thought of pretending, because it's not exactly a towny thought to (pretend to) have.

Snow: Don't kill Snow until F3, thanks. But do kill her at that point (unless somehow Squork or JeenLeen are still alive)

Flat: I know, I know, one sad little post. He didn't sign up which means he's actually too busy to play. If he were a wolf, he'd make more of an effort. Obviously this is my least confident read and most likely to change based on what he does the following days.

Squork: We've talked enough about it, Squork makes most sense if Zelphas was town, so he gets to live in the POE and try to fight his way out today.

JeenLeen: If Zelphas was a wolf, JeenLeen makes more sense as a third wolf than anyone else. Please don't let him endgame.


I honestly believe that if we kill this list from the bottom upwards, we will win.

[Valmark]

Night 3 END

It is with extremely heaviness of heart that you wake up in the morning.

Nobody expects to see all the people that went to bed the day before.
And everybody would be right.

Breaking the door down, there's only a couple of you to drag out the inevitable corpse- those of you who can't stand anymore to find their loved ones brutally murdered get to digging a grave without having even confirmed thay there was a kill.

Taffimai was heinously massacred.

Day 4 START
It'll end in 48 hours.

[Squork]

I'll start off by saying I'm going to look into JL more once I finish my homework, but at this point it's just a guessing game with no alignment flips. Also royally sucked at trying to townlead so I'll let smarter players do their thing xD

I'll withhold further comment until LS tells us who was investigated.

[Lady Serpentine]

Snowblaze, as town.

Taffimai going down last night looks bad for Squork. Wolves have already shown they're willing to kill people pushing them.

[bladescape]

Snowblaze, as town.

Taffimai going down last night looks bad for Squork. Wolves have already shown they're willing to kill people pushing them.

I already said yes.

In terms of Snow being town.

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I'll start off by saying I'm going to look into JL more once I finish my homework, but at this point it's just a guessing game with no alignment flips. Also royally sucked at trying to townlead so I'll let smarter players do their thing xD

I'll withhold further comment until LS tells us who was investigated.

Not quite a guessing game. But yes we don't have confirmation of anything but AV's alignment.

[Lady Serpentine]

I already said yes.

In terms of Snow being town.

...Oh, is that what's going on. My bad.

[bladescape]

Actually, this game might be over.

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Okay yeah.

Can everyone claim, but in a specific order?

First.

Jeen and Squork

Then.

Cazero, FF, Wombat

If I'm reading the game right this gives us auto-win.

There is exactly one way these claims shake out that it might not be autowin.

But even then we have a very good chance of being in a good position.

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The order for claims is specific to my belief of who is what is where but I could be wrong.

Still I would appreciate if the top two named announce their roles, even if it's just "villager"

[JeenLeen]

Vanillager.

bladescape, I'd question the baner claiming if not that I know you're Town. It's too late after a long day for me to try to contemplate why you're asking for the claims, but I'll trust your reasoning.
The baner might feel compelled to fakeclaim vanillager. I am not doing this; I'm not a power role. If nobody claims baner and you feel like someone is lying, present your case why they should tell the truth (if you really think they should.)

If I survive the Night, I'll explain why it felt worth posting this tonight.

I think Squork is a wolf.
The wolves aren't likely to try to kill Lady Ti, so they'll kill elsewhere. There's a chance they'll hit the baner.
I'm vanillager and I'd rather die than the baner.
Squork comments about me being quiet. A quiet, inactive player is (usually) less of a threat. I want the wolves to know I'm active and a threat worth NKing, so I post.

Also wanted to cast some shade at Taffimai to give wolves reason to think I suspect her, so maybe they won't kill her. Didn't work, but that's why I drew attention to her comment about scrying Squork.

[bladescape]

I'll happily share after everyone has claimed.

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But I will add if baner claims then town has autowin.

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Technically we could have autowin regardless if baner is alive and doesn't claim but like...

Then I don't know. =P

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Actually also potential Ti wastes a scry on baner if they don't claim which also ruins the autowin.

[Snowblaze]

This is going to be one of those games where I keep expecting to be nightkilled but then never actually am, isn't it?

Nice to be confirmed town, though, even if scrying me was probably unnecessary. Curious about bladescape's theories but that can definitely wait until after massclaim. I was toying with the idea myself so we should definitely go ahead with it.

Don't know if it's actually auto-win but it should put us close enough to be worthwhile... oh, right, there are worlds where today is effectively-LyLo (5-3 with Badger included in the 3... it might actually be correct play to No Lynch today in that case.)

Claims
Lady Serpentine - Snake
JeenLeen - vanillager

Yet to claim, and do so in this order please!
Squork
Cazero/flat_footed
Book Wombat
Snowblaze/bladescape

Yeah, it depends exactly how claims shake out but I think we're pretty close.

Saving my vote for once claims are done and we know what best play from here is.

[Squork]

I'm just a plain Villager

There are 14 of us, with 5 roles, likely 3 scum and a badger. That means there are 9 with a "role," and 6 without.

[Cazero]

Plain villager here.

Curious to see where bladescape is going with this.

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Not trusting blade's plan? Thinking it might be a cunning ruse? Let's put some tinfoil on.

Assuming blade is actualy wolf for a moment, a counterclaim will come.

World 1 : Illven was Crow, AV was Wolf, Lady Serpentine is Snake
The most likely world right now, in large part because nobody counterclaimed Snake.
The only way blade is not town is if Snow is Badger. But that would still mean blade outed two members of the wolf team while helpfuly telling us wich one doesn't strictly need to be yeeted, leaving only one wolf undercover, and I don't think he would take such a risk.

World 2 : Illven was Crow, AV was Wolf, Lady Serpentine is Wolf
Assuming the wolves got lucky and shot the Snake, that would be Ti distancing hard, with AV tanking the hit for the cred of her partner.
Very risky move for the wolves as they can't be sure that the Snake is dead. But in this world, blade's clear means nothing.
However, if blade is a Wolf trying to out the remaining power roles, his plan just put a target on the entire Wolf team : him, Snow, Ti and AV. I don't believe for a second he would do that.

World 3 : Illven was Badger, AV was Crow, Lady Serpentine is Wolf
Assuming again that the wolves luckily got the Snake. Another point against that world is the fact AV didn't even try to defend herself. Busy day or not, I believe that if she really was Crow she would have put up something even after her speech that a Wolf would just get caught quickly.
In that world, blade's clear also means nothing. But it's not much better than above, since it reveals the entire wolf team again : blade, Snow, Ti and Illven.

[bladescape]

FF and BW still.

Cazero, I've been scried town.

There is no world where Ti is Snake and I'm wolf. It's impossible.

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Also world 3 is impossible because AV would have known Snake died.

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World 2 is funnily enough exactly what this mass claim *right now* lets me confirm or deny.

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Purely the "AV and Ti scumbuddies".

Because that means exactly Persolus was the Snake.

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Pending what I get from BW/FF, I may explain at that point what's going on.

[Cazero]

Cazero, I've been scried town.

Right, I forgot that.
So world 1 can't have blade wolf.