Raging Loop

[Lady Serpentine]

Yeah, World 1 can't have Blade/Snow paired as wolves, as only one of them can be Badger and both have been scried town.

Would you like some additional corroboration that I'm Snake, or should I not influence things that directly for now? I was sitting on it yesterday in hopes of baiting out a wolf counterclaim, but I can drop it now if you'd like.

[bladescape]

Yeah, World 1 can't have Blade/Snow paired as wolves, as only one of them can be Badger and both have been scried town.

Would you like some additional corroboration that I'm Snake, or should I not influence things that directly for now? I was sitting on it yesterday in hopes of baiting out a wolf counterclaim, but I can drop it now if you'd like.

No, hold on. I want the claims first.

[JeenLeen]

Yo, flat_footed, Book Wombat, please chime in.

I wish their silence wasn't so normal for them. As is, not informative. If were others, I'd suspect wolves being quiet to not leak crucial intel and/or whilst debating what to say.

I'll avoid any analysis on those who have talked until we get claims in.

[JeenLeen]

Yet to claim, and do so in this order please!
Squork
Cazero/flat_footed
Book Wombat
Snowblaze/bladescape

Encouraging flat_footed to participate.
Though 100% planning to change my vote back to Squork once he responds. Maybe even if it gets close to end-of-day with no response (we still have well over 24 hours, right?)

[bladescape]

Encouraging flat_footed to participate.
Though 100% planning to change my vote back to Squork once he responds. Maybe even if it gets close to end-of-day with no response (we still have well over 24 hours, right?)

24ish +/- 1 or 2 hours

[Book Wombat]

So wait, should I claim before or after flat_footed?

[Snowblaze]

So wait, should I claim before or after flat_footed?

shrug

I have a mild personal preference for after but also this game has slowed right down and I want stuff to happen rather than today being "let's all sit and wait for flat to show up". So up to you, unless anyone has a stronger opinion than mine.

[bladescape]

Doesn't matter at this point.

[Book Wombat]

*checks thread, two pages.*
*reloads, suddenly six.*
Me: Oh damn.

(Had a busy day, apologies)
Anyway, uh, not much to say is there? One wolf down which is good, but at what cost?

Kind of sleep-deprived still but going to dig into analysis anyway. Even if I don't get anywhere. Yet.

As in, monkey ('An' makes an 'n' sound...).
Ook ook.

[Snowblaze]

Confirming that I am in fact monkeys with Wombat.

bladescape, did you pick up on our soft? Was that why you townread me?

[bladescape]

I probably should've just checked for that lmao I'm dumb.

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Confirming that I am in fact monkeys with Wombat.

bladescape, did you pick up on our soft? Was that why you townread me?

Not at all lol.

But that being said it makes it even worse of a scry =P

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(Jk you did great Ti)

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Alrighty.

Unless Persolus is exactly Snake, this game is on lock.

Ngl I was actually hoping the Monkeys were FF/BW because that would make this next step even easier.

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Xi was vanillager. Zelphas was vanillager. (Maybe wolf but I'm going to play Zelph being town as that keeps me more on my toes.) Taffi was also vanillager.

This means that if we assume 3 wolves(1 dead AV), and 1 Badger then there's 3/4 in Cazero/Squork/Jeen/FF.

Ti cannot be killed tonight, instead, I will probably die.

Ti can scry one of those.

The only way we lose is if we haven't lost Badger/another wolf AND we miss in that 3/4.

I don't consider it likely.

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Now, there's a chance I'm overly paranoid and that there's less than 3/4 in that grouping.

Which is good because it means if we don't get it wrong then we're fine still and Ti gets another scry to narrow it down.

But basically we're almost lock here because the only way we lose is if we vote out the 1 villager and there's 2 wolves + 1 badger remaining in the other 3.

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There are permutations where we lose here but the overwhelming likelihood is that we win as long as we don't mess up this phase.

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ALSO

To explain a bit better:

The reason I wanted claims today is that I was fairly confident we had 1 or 2 Monkeys alive, and with the information we have there's not a lot of vagueness.

If we delayed claims even 1 day there's a chance for "Did x die?" to actively become a worry.

Persolus is the one wild card.

I knew Xi was vanillager because there was no claim when Xi would.

I knew Zelphas was vanillager (or wolf) because there was no claim when he was under fire.

I knew Taffi wasn't any of the roles except maybe one of the Monkeys, which still left FF/BW as the other monkey so that was good info for us.

I basically operated under the assumption I'd get 1 Monkey out of the POE. 1 Monkey with Persolus as a partner guarantees Ti as Snake and the game is almost certainly over.

2 Monkeys in the POE is game over for wolves. Because unless Ti is wolf then there's a subset of 3 confirmed targets that have to contain any living evil roles, and just by wagoning through the lot of them we win.

No Monkeys would have been worrying, but it would've meant Pers/Taffi were the monkeys and Ti is 100% confirmed Snake at that point.

[Lady Serpentine]

Hm. Obvious question: Do we lynch Flat today for being least likely to slip up by talking out of the remaining few? Or do we assume that he's just gonna autolynch and go for other people who aren't going to resolve themselves?

[bladescape]

Hm. Obvious question: Do we lynch Flat today for being least likely to slip up by talking out of the remaining few? Or do we assume that he's just gonna autolynch and go for other people who aren't going to resolve themselves?

I'd prefer to go for the others because if FF does auto then we don't lose a day because we're at straight 8

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I feel bad planning around someone afking out of the game tho.

Either way still want to focus elsewhere for now.

[Valmark]

This brings up a point I will ask to you all- if flat was to auto-lynch, do you prefer that or me finding another replacement? Assuming there is another replacement?

[Lady Serpentine]

I think it's optimal for town to let Flat autolynch, wolf or not.

However, I'm going to vote you start looking for a replacement now, on account of that's not particularly fair to the wolves, even more so if Flat is a wolf.

[JeenLeen]

bladescape: This is just curiousity, but why did you read Snowblaze as town so strongly?
Don't answer if it might help the wolves, but with the two of you scried as Town and she a confirmed Monkey, I don't see how it could help the wolves.

Any reason not to vote Squork now?

[bladescape]

bladescape: This is just curiousity, but why did you read Snowblaze as town so strongly?
Don't answer if it might help the wolves, but with the two of you scried as Town and she a confirmed Monkey, I don't see how it could help the wolves.

Any reason not to vote Squork now?

I sacrificed 3 ml of blood to the witches so that I could divine her alignment.

And sure.

[JeenLeen]

Squork

My dishwasher broke (part of why I'm up this late is doing tons of dishes after failing to fix it), and thus Friday is gonna be extra busy and I'm usually offline a lot in weekends.
So just noting I'll be absent extra. Should be able to chime in next Day to at least vote.

But I guess analysis means little at this stage, beyond deciding who gets lynched if Lady Ti's scry attempt reads Town, so my silence shouldn't do much harm.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, yeah, in that case I guess we're taking the boring option and killing Squork. If I'm in the mood I might analyse stuff later but otherwise I'll default to leaving a legacy post in the mason chat tonight.

Does anyone think Squork is town/shouldn't die? And if so why?

(Incidentally, bladescape, I am more confirmed town than you so clearly I should be nightkilled over you.)

[Squork]

Squork

Y’all are wrong but good luck.

[Valmark]

Potential replacement found. This will be the last though, no matter wether the game ends or not (it'd be a bit silly to keep substituting players in Day 6 or whichever it might be).

[bladescape]

JeenLeen

For ? reasons.

[Cazero]

I'll just go with the flow and vote Squork.

[Snowblaze]

I'm paranoid. Today is potentially-almost-LyLo, and everyone in the POE who's actually shown up and posted is voting for Squork.

If Squork is a wolf, do his partners bus him here? Because I wouldn't. Barring tinfoil wolf!Ti worlds (which I should properly explore; Ti, I would like to see that evidence backing up your Snake claim you mentioned), mislynching today is wolves' only chance of winning.

Squork, please don't self-vote. If you're town doing that probably loses us the game.

Can I get thoughts from Ti and bladescape on whether I'm right to be paranoid, and who in the POE is actually most likely to be a wolf?

[Squork]

I'm paranoid. Today is potentially-almost-LyLo, and everyone in the POE who's actually shown up and posted is voting for Squork.

If Squork is a wolf, do his partners bus him here? Because I wouldn't. Barring tinfoil wolf!Ti worlds (which I should properly explore; Ti, I would like to see that evidence backing up your Snake claim you mentioned), mislynching today is wolves' only chance of winning.

Squork, please don't self-vote. If you're town doing that probably loses us the game.

Can I get thoughts from Ti and bladescape on whether I'm right to be paranoid, and who in the POE is actually most likely to be a wolf?

Respectfully, I disagree to the bolded.

I mean, assuming you guys are all town, you've POE'd a group of 4 to have all the remaining scum group in it. This is fine, and if you're right then it's excellent work. The problem is that's where the effort seems to have stopped. The main reasoning behind my wagon is I got duped by someone I've never played with before, and leftover residue from being sussed by a confirmed town who either lied or made a mistake to get my name out there. With that said, what's the actual reasoning why I should be voted ahead of the other 3 guys in a potential LYLO? Has anyone done a deep dive on anybody in the 4? I don't think so.

Without a flip, investigation or crow, it doesn't matter what I say, or who I vote. My thoughts are clearly tainted by my scumness. At least here you won't mislynch another town next round because I vote/don't vote someone else. I'm self-voting because you're making a potentially fatal mistake. If someone does a deep dive and comes up with their own conclusions rather than just following the misguided consensus, then I will vote alongside them. If I were to do the same, it would just be disregarded.

Good luck!

[Snowblaze]

And let's have some more Squork talk (yes, I am doing that to annoy our resident outed wolf).

Spoiler: waffly thoughts

Show

I guess the thing is... the way Squork has been playing is kind of pure-logic, if that makes sense. "There must always be at least one wolf on this wagon". Which is all very well, if it works, but those things aren't certainties. They're assumptions.

And the moment one assumption is wrong, the whole thing falls apart. (Yes, bladescape, I am thinking of my D2 from hydra game here.)

It also feels... kind of mechanical as a style of solving? How do I put this... just "X happened, therefore I think Y". Perfectly logical progression. I can't see anything fluid and dynamic, any paranoia or reevaluation or second-guessing of process.

And. Maybe these things are there, just happening behind the scenes where I can't see them. Or maybe this is just Squork's natural playstyle and it's just clash between our approaches to the game. But.

Paranoia, reevaluation, second-guessing of process are hard to fake. Whereas what Squork has done this game is not. It's easy to pretend to be a mechanical solving robot as a wolf, and even to select the perfectly logical arguments that just happen to support your wolfy agenda.

I can't really justify wolfreading Squork just for this, without prior knowledge of his town meta. But I think he has partner equity with AV independently of this, and there was a thing I'll quote in a bit that's a pretty good example of something along these lines that's actually wolfy.

And... POE, I guess, though I'm hesitant to invoke that given how many times my POEs have been wrong.

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Spoiler: Squork, mid-D2 to N2

Show

Thinking AV was Crow is something I have no right to criticise. I'm not exactly sure where the assumption Ilven is an experienced player came from, but don't think digging into that is particularly productive; this is mostly just here to note progression.


Squork's mistake is pointed out to him. This feels a reasonable reaction to it in isolation, but...

Speculating about the more improbable possibilities. And then the second paragraph is what I mean by "pure-logic": "this singular assumption is wrong, so I am retracting that specific statement and replacing it by a pair of possibilities".

Also it feels like a slight disconnect between that and "totally messes with my reads".


And now turning around and explaining why they think AV isn't a wolf, based on the idea that Ilven could have been Badger. It was a risk for wolf!AV to do that but I think they probably are sure enough the Crow claim is real rather than Badger to take it.

So this just... feels like a way to reset reads to their prior state and come up with a new set of assumptions that justify townreading AV.


I'll confess I need to check exact context for D2 Squork case. First paragraph was a reply to Ti, second to AV trying to CFD Squork.

( Given the time left until EOD there was approximately zero chance of it actually getting Squork killed so I don't think it unpairs them.)

More pure logic. Maybe CFDs are anti-town (debatable, depends on circumstances) but anti-town does not equal wolfy. And I think arguing that it does is wolfy.

"Trying to CFD me is wolfy, so I have sirens going on... Ti. Not the person who actually started the CFD, the person who wolfreads me but specifically chose to not join it".


And suddenly there is not a flicker of doubt on AV's alignment. Just "the person I pushed flipped wolf, therefore I should be cleared". Never mind the only evidence that Zelphas did in fact flip wolf is in fact from the person who tried to start the wolfy CFD on him.

...okay, yeah, I actually have a pretty confident wolfread here. Would appreciate people checking over my case to see whether I'm just confbiasing or whether I'm actually onto something.

I have, in fact, presented my argument for why I think you're a wolf. I helped to create this consensus, I'm not just blindly following it.

But you also have a point: I should have been doing a lot more than I have been doing. I guess we still have a few hours to fix that, though.

I won't disregard whatever conclusions you come to, though; I can't promise to vote someone else because of it, but I will take your points into account rather than just dismissing them because I think you're a wolf.

Right. flat has done precisely nothing all game, so I can't read him directly. But... would gamestate make more sense given an inactive wolf? Maybe?

Ironically it would actually fit more in wolf!Squork worlds with the stagnant gamestate and the lack of attempts to save Squork.

[JeenLeen]

It seems reasonable to vote me or Squork today. I think Squork looks wolfier than me (I think with good reason.) I think Cazero looks wolfier than me (and I might just be tunneling.) But I can see either move as legit.

Dishwasher fixed now, but no time to make detailed analysis. But I do think lynching flat_footed would be a mistake. Not sure if gut feeling or legit.

[Lady Serpentine]

I've provided a fair number of reasons too.

And also just... Squork's defense has no substance to it? There's been a repeated emphasis on "You think I'm wolfy, therefore I can't/won't/shouldn't provide any of my own thoughts.", which could be wolf trying to come across as depressed townie or actual townie reaction or whatever, but what it's not is useful.

[Squork]

I've provided a fair number of reasons too.

And also just... Squork's defense has no substance to it? There's been a repeated emphasis on "You think I'm wolfy, therefore I can't/won't/shouldn't provide any of my own thoughts.", which could be wolf trying to come across as depressed townie or actual townie reaction or whatever, but what it's not is useful.

Then tell me, how can I possibly be useful? Anything I say will be under the eye of suspicion and you won’t get any use out of it until you know my affiliation after the game.

[JeenLeen]

Regardless of your alignment, I feel like sharing this to a new player here to help alleviate any personal edge/hurt feelings and encourage you to stay playing here.
In the metagame on this forum (I haven't played elsewhere), folk usually self-vote for one of the reasons below:

ANY ALIGNMENT
1) as a joke early D1 (or, if AV, maybe other times). This is generally held a little wolfy
TOWN
2) if their death will yield info that is crucial to town/catches a wolf
3) a hope that, as vanillagers accept death lest powers die or to gain info, it will look towny and persuade folk to vote a real wolf
WOLF
4) a hope that, based on #3, it will look towny so folk vote shift from the wolf to a real towny

"Townie giving up" isn't very common, but looks like #3 or #4.