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Thread: Raging Loop
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2023-02-03, 10:12 PM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
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2023-02-03, 10:15 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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Re: Raging Loop
Zelphas might also be wolf. Hm.
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2023-02-03, 10:17 PM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2015
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Re: Raging Loop
Is… is Blade pulling a me?
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2023-02-03, 10:22 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2023
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- Squork
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2023-02-03, 10:35 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jul 2011
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- Avatar by Kasanip
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Re: Raging Loop
If it is genuine confusion, then you have my apologies. But I stand by it, mostly on account of saying you missed Illven's death and offhandedly claiming that AV is the seer when Snake calls out "Snake (Seer)" in the role list and Crow has an entirely different tag. The former is easy "confused newbie" points that wouldn't be accounted for by that, while the latter is a bit more subtle, but an easy way to misdirect players who aren't paying that much attention while being able to claim that you just misunderstood, and something I don't buy as explained by that on account of it requires knowing seer is an information role without having seen which one it is.
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2023-02-03, 10:52 PM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2023
- Location
- Squork
- Gender
Re: Raging Loop
Oh oops, didn’t even realize the Seer thing lol. If it makes you feel any better, I can fully admit that I’m not a noob, nor am I trying to come off as one. I make dumb mistakes with words and definitions, even pers could tell you after the game that I do that irl all the time, but I’ve played on and off since about 2017. That doesn’t mean I’m any good, mind you, but I have a bit of experience.
By on and off, I’d say I’ve played about 15-20 games total online.
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Once I get home and have had a bit of help in the form of liquid courage, I’m going to have a look at the guys who were much more talkative this time of day on D1 and have trailed off a bit. This game shouldn’t be this dead right now.Last edited by Squork; 2023-02-03 at 10:55 PM.
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2023-02-04, 12:55 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2009
Re: Raging Loop
Caveat: tired. Unexpected stuff kept me up until about midnight, and trying to read here a little while winding down.
bladescape, would you refer to that post where you claim Xi noticed something too early? And what Snowblaze said that hints at this? And what exactly "Badger/Crow cross" means; I realize I'm reading that as "gambit a wolf!AV would do D1" but maybe it means something else.
But I'm guessing you are implying Xi made a TMI slip. If that guess is right, that implies the wolves knew what was up early on with the Crow claims, which implies AV is a wolf.
So... You suspect wolf!Xi voted wolf!AV early D2, knowing that one of two things would happen
1) seer outs AV, and Xi gets towncred for being on the wagon early
2) seer doesn't out AV, and no significant wagon forms on AV since nobody wants Crow dead, so Xi's vote on a scumbuddy has zero risk. Xi maybe still gets towncred later on when AV gets outted.
Quoted for potentially cool wordplay if what's happening is what I think is happening.
If so, good joke, Xi.
I can see both the TMI slip and Xi potentially making this joke as evidence for voting Xi. Xi is one of the players who I think would enjoy hinting they are a wolf.
But I'd like to know what post(s) bladescape thinks is evidence.
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bladescape will sometimes (often?) vote someone just to see what response he gets. How does the voted person respond. How do others response and vote once a wagon is stronger.
I was wondering for a bit if his vote on Xi was legit or to gain intel.
That bladescape makes this statement without swapping his vote makes me think the vote on Xi is more than just poking for intel. If it were that, I think he would have changed it after Xi responded.
I expected some discussion on the wolfiness of Cazero or Zelphas, but besides Zelphas himself everyone has seemed to ignore that. The other discussion does look like good discussion, but I wonder how much of it is trying to protect a wolf (whether that wolf is Cazero or Zelphas)
On the other hand, if just one of those two is a wolf, I think some wolf would have jumped on one of the two wagons to protect their scumbuddy in a believable way. Maybe I missed a vote change, but I think we're still at 2 for Cazero (me; Zelphas) and 1 for Zelphas (Squork).
So I guess... that the wagons are kinda being ignored makes me think that either neither are wolves (wolves don't really care who gets lynched and are happy not to draw attention to themselves AND/OR are trying to avoid getting lynched as new wagons form) or both are wolves (wolves are hoping another wagon gains traction).
Zelphas voting Cazero is a mark against the "both wolves", but his statement makes sense if both are wolves: he could reasonably move his wagon to a 'more convincing' argument later, and although he didn't mention self-defense most folk are likely not to analyze that vote a ton since it kinda counted like self-defense.
If both Zelphas and Cazero are alive at end-of-day, I could see a seer peeking there.
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2023-02-04, 02:22 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Dec 2019
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Re: Raging Loop
On "AV says I'm a wolf for Reasons": I can see a plausible explanation for wolfreading me for TMI: namely, that post wasn't TMI, I previously TMIed AV town and Crow by failing to make sense of the Badger thing and then that post was me hastily trying to cover up for it before anyone noticed.
I don't see why that merits the crypticness, though, so... yeah, AV, please explain.
On Xihirli, Jeen: no, the argument is the opposite. Given Crow!AV wolves know that there's two Crow claimants, neither of whom are wolves. Xihirli was the one who suggested that neither AV nor Ilven were wolves, when there's significantly less probability that town would get to that conclusion given the natural assumptions of "one of these players is lying and hence wolf".
Seconding Squork that Zelphas's reads list is very consensus-y; also don't think there's much depth of thought there. Confidence fairly low, though, second-guessing this one a bit.
The fact I'm agreeing with bladescape is making me paranoid that I'm badly wrong and he's trying to manipulate me into continuing to be badly wrong. Is that a justified read? Probably not. Still.
I should vote. I now don't know if I want to vote for Zelphas or Xihirli, so I will make that Future Me's problem.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
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2023-02-04, 02:40 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Raging Loop
...as you wish.
Default is that townies are going to be wondering if I'm a wolf who pulled a gambit, and looking for evidence that proves/disproves that from my actions. When I say "Illven flipped Badger", they're gonna ask themselves "why would wolf!AV do this? why would town!AV do this?", and both of those questions have obvious answers. Town!AV is sharing pertinent information since it can only help town and there's no point keeping quiet to hide their identity as Crow anymore. And Wolf!AV is signaling for Badger to target AV in the night to hook up with wolf team. This is fairly straightforward, and was in fact directly commented on shortly after I posted that message. For someone to see my post, and see the follow-up messages, requires one of two things:
1) They are utterly checked out of the game, and barely thinking about the single most pertinent issue at hand.
2) That default of "they wonder if I'm a wolf" is incorrect.
A wolf would see me call Illven Badger and not wonder if it was a gambit - because they know I'm not a wolf, so they know I'm not signaling to Badger. The thought probably doesn't even occur to them, maybe even doesn't occur to them when they see Cazero say this:
A wolf sees that and wonders "why would Crow signal to Badger? That doesn't make any sense." So that's something I was kind of on the lookout for: people who just accepted at face value that I wasn't possibly a wolf signaling to Badger. And so when Snow does her Cazero ISO early D2 and claims not to get it, and then later posts "ohhhhh now I get it", my immediate thought is that it's TMI. Snow already knew I wasn't a wolf faking it, so the theory made no sense to her. Her perspective makes sense only for someone who knows I'm not a wolf.
You know who knows I'm not a wolf? The wolves. TMI.
...and then as soon as I hit post I realized there was one other person who would know, a town person who would know for sure. I try to walk back the suspicion, and then realize that's the wrong move. If I really want to protect Snow from wolf scrutiny, I needed to keep scumreading her without walking people through all of the above, because if wolves aren't thinking about it that deep yet, I don't wanna point lead them down the whole path and just stop right at the step where I say "if Snow isn't a wolf, that TMI can only mean she's the..." because wolves know she's not a wolf, and thus know she's the...you know.
But since Snow sees what I saw, and still told me to explain myself, it seems I was just wrong? Which is actually kinda making me swing back to legitimately scumreading her instead of proclaiming to scumread her as a smokescreen.
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2023-02-04, 02:59 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Dec 2019
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Re: Raging Loop
...oh, right. That does make sense.
My perspective is that of someone who's just being stupid and hasn't properly absorbed this game's mechanics.
(Though, yeah, you were wrong about that particular reason for town!me to have done that, but of course I'd say that even if you weren't.)I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
Extended Signature
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2023-02-04, 03:03 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2023
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- Squork
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2023-02-04, 03:05 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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- Australia
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Re: Raging Loop
Imagine for a moment that AV is telling the truth.
Imagine Illven is Badger.
Imagine that wolves saw two people claim Crow and neither were wolf.
Imagine then that a wolf accidentally slipped that they knew neither person claiming was wolf.
- - - Updated - - -
Blade!wolf = Blade when he is a wolf.
Suggesting that the statement is in mind of that person being the ! alignment"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2023-02-04, 03:06 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2023
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- Squork
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Re: Raging Loop
Alright so here's a question for you then. Why didn't you sus me at all, even though I did exactly that? I took your word at face value and didn't assume you were gambiting. Does that make me scum in your eyes?
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Thank you!
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2023-02-04, 04:17 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Raging Loop
It's not people believing me that's suspicious. It's people obviously believing me so hard that the possibility I was signaling Badger didn't even cross their minds that's suspicious. Most people seem to be assuming I'm Crow until Snake steps forward, but they're not just blindly refusing to consider it as an option. JeenLeen's rambling posts at least consider the possibility I could be a wolf gambiting. But Snow's reaction to this theory isn't skepticism at the conclusion, it's bafflement. It really does read like someone who not just thinks I'm really Crow, but knows I'm really Crow. And in fact, in Snow's own words, she realized it look bad and tried to backpedal, but in doing so only called attention to the initial mistake.
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2023-02-04, 04:28 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Aug 2014
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Re: Raging Loop
Yes, I am slightly egomaniac. Why didn't you ask?
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2023-02-04, 07:01 AM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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- Montevarchi, Italy
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2023-02-04, 07:18 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jul 2011
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- Avatar by Kasanip
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Re: Raging Loop
So, with about twelve hours left in the day, we don't seem to have a good wagon.
Zelphas, I guess. It's information on a wolf-lean, if nothing else, since nobody seems inclined to join me on Squork, and people who I trust more have presented some decent reasons for why this might work out.
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2023-02-04, 07:46 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jun 2005
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- GMT
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Re: Raging Loop
Great, we're playing the same game as yesterday, but with four candidates
Vote count:
AV 1: Xihirli
Wombat 1: Zelphas
Cazero 2: JeenLeen, Zelphas
Xihirli 3:Squork, Bladescape, Cazero, Taffimai
Zelphas 2: Squork, Serpentine
Squork 1: Serpentine
Serpentine 1: AV
I didn't get my multi-quotes so I'll have to go get them again, but that will have to wait till after lunch
Currently leaning Xihirli/Cazero/Squork78% of DM's started their first campaign in a tavern. If you're one of the 22% that didn't, copy and paste this into your signature.
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2023-02-04, 08:13 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jul 2011
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- Avatar by Kasanip
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Re: Raging Loop
Your vote count appears to have me voting twice.
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2023-02-04, 08:18 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2015
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Re: Raging Loop
Okay, didn't say that one was a badger, but I can see how you'd make the connection.
And this is a bad thing to say for... reasons?
EDIT: Several people saw the same thing I did and still voted Zelphas. I am not the only one who thought neither was a wolf, and I don't understand where this becomes "and therefore, a wolf."Last edited by Xihirli; 2023-02-04 at 08:20 AM.
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2023-02-04, 08:46 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Raging Loop
This is incorrect.
Lady Serpentine voted when only Illven had claimed Crow. She switched to Zelphas (who had an actual case against him from JeenLeen), and then she left until after EoD. Her voting decision was not based on an opinion on the opposing claims at all.
Illven was not voting Zelphas because of a stated belief that I wasn't a wolf counterclaiming her "real" Crow, but because voting Zelphas was the best option for ensuring her personal survival.
Taffimai voted Zelphas out of a desire to see neither myself nor Illven lynched today, but not because they thought we were both non-wolves; rather, Taffimai preferred another method of testing which claim was correct - a method that involved not lynching either of us, at least not D1.
Persolus voted Zelphas over Illven after bouncing around for awhile. This might mean that Persolus wanted neither of us lynched because Persolus think neither of us is a wolf, but it might also just mean that Persolus thought Illven's claim was the real one, and changed his vote to Zelphas to save Illven from the lynch, and if my wagon had been properly competitive with Illven's, Persolus would've voted me instead.
So of the four people who were attempting to vote Zelphas at EoD, three of them were definitely not thinking in the way you're attributing to them, and one of them probably wasn't but maybe could've been...and is dead now, so we can't ask him for sure.
There were four people not voting for Illven or Zelphas (well, five if you count Illven's vote she forgot to cross out). Those three are you, Amnonia13 (utterly absent player), Cazero (who was voting me, and thus probably not subscribing to your "neither is a wolf" theory), and Book Wombat (who did their typical "randvote early D1 and disappear" schtick). This could plausibly be used to say that I can't prove BW didn't believe neither of us were wolves, except that after night fell...
BW seems to think scum!Illven got voted out.
So of the 14 players in the game, there are two that aren't demonstrably disagreeing with your "neither is a wolf" theory, neither of whom has actually expressed agreement but also haven't explicitly expressed disagreement (and neither of whom is likely to be confirming/denying their opinion on the subject any time soon). That is very much not "several people seeing the same thing".Last edited by AvatarVecna; 2023-02-04 at 08:48 AM.
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2023-02-04, 09:00 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2015
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- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
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Re: Raging Loop
Okay, but why is that gut feeling a bad thing? Nobody's given me a throughline between
"Xihirli suspects neither claimant is a wolf ----> Xihirli is a wolf."
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2023-02-04, 09:03 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2009
Re: Raging Loop
Xihirli.
Hope to be online more later, but thanks for correcting my misunderstanding, bladescape and Snowblaze. Just online for a minute this morning.
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2023-02-04, 09:10 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Apr 2011
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- Australia
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Re: Raging Loop
Hm wagon feels too easy.
"Trust bladescape, Shadow of Doubt,"
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2023-02-04, 09:11 AM (ISO 8601)
- Join Date
- Jan 2014
Re: Raging Loop
It's because given how Illven flipped, it looks like TMI. Theorizing that neither claimant is a wolf is such an odd take that nobody else was thinking it.You know who would know during D1 that neither claimant was a wolf? The wolves would. So when you pop into thread like "I don't think either of them are wolves", it's NAGL. Speaking of NAGL, let's also add to the list "lying about several people's voting motivations".
Mind you, I'm not gonna join this wagon because I don't think wolves in general out themselves this way. If you as a wolf see two townies duking it out over conflicting Crow claims, the wolfy response is "lmao" and eating popcorn while the most powerful town role is outed or lynched D1. Keeping your head down and just letting it happen, yknow? And I think a comment like this would seem risky enough to wolf!Xi that she wouldn't make it.
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2023-02-04, 09:19 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2015
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- Behind you. RIGHT NOW.
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Re: Raging Loop
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2023-02-04, 09:22 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2014
Re: Raging Loop
I've had my weekend filled with errands so I'll be dipping in and out for awhile. But as a parting message, I'm gonna beat my old drum that nobody ever likes: Armonia13 is about to autolynch; if we don't have any really solid feelings, let's minimize losses and only have one kill today. I even have an extra bit of evidence to support it this time: the reason monkeys work as a way to check my Crow claim is because it's literally impossible for them to both die at the same time. I'm not asking anybody to stand up and say "Armonia is/isnt my monkey buddy", I'm more saying that in the unlikely event that Armonia is monkey buddies with our chosen lynchee, that's one fewer methods of verification available.
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It's about framing. Yeah people don't know if they can trust me or not, so to test that they ask the next questions. "Presuming AV is telling the truth, what might wolves have been doing?" and "Presuming AV is a lying wolf, what might wolves have been doing?"
Bladescape asked the first question, and then went looking for people who looked like they already knew neither Illven nor I were a wolf. And lo and behold, there was exactly precisely one person lazily pushing that opinion.
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2023-02-04, 10:23 AM (ISO 8601)
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Re: Raging Loop
RL is crazy again (should be back to normal by mid-D3 assuming I survive that long), so you get brief poke-ins and questions for the next while.
Taffimai, explain the Squork scumread please?
AV, this is WIFOM but: supposing I'm a wolf and did slip in the Cazero ISO the way you theorised, I do not do anything that will draw attention to that slip. I just keep quiet and hope no-one notices.
And Zelphas, because I have yet to reach a strong opinion on whether I want to kill him or Xihirli so I'll tie the wagons.I'm writing stuff, come and read it!
Werewolf games won: 24
Werewolf games lost: 14
Games as town: 23.5
Games as neutral: 5.5
Games as wolf: 9
Games narrated: 1
Deaths: 17
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2023-02-04, 10:26 AM (ISO 8601)
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- Jan 2015
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Re: Raging Loop
Still pretty sure AV is wolf or wolf-aligned; self-preservation on Zelphas.
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2023-02-04, 11:25 AM (ISO 8601)
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- May 2017
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Re: Raging Loop
Currently looking for a replacement for Armonia13, in any case they'll sub in after EOD (essentially in place of autolynching).