Raging Loop

[Taffimai]

Here's why Squork is in my solve:

Alright everyone.

Every winning lynch wagon within the first two rounds has had AT LEAST one scum in my experience. Last night, that wagon was Zelph, AV, Blade, JL, and Snow, so I think it's quite likely that there is at least one scum here. 1/5 in a game of 14. I know, gamebreaking stuff. Hear me out.

Il had 3 votes before freaking out and special-claiming, and that was from Zelph, AV and LS. However, LS switched AFTER the Il claim, but before the AV chaos began. This is something town and scum could both do, but that is also unimportant to my point. Any scum seeing the ensuing chaos would've realized that one of the two is 100% the badger, and that keeping BOTH alive would be the best case scenario to not make a mistake. *So the fact Blade, JL and Snow joined the wagon late looks really damn good for them.* Caz voted AV during the chaos, which helps his case.

What does this mean? Well...

1. The law of Wagonomics AND probability: One of Zelph, AV, Blade, JL, and Snow are bad
2. Voting Il or AV, especially right after the chaos started is much townier given the high badger potential
3. This protects Blade, JL, (Caz) and Snow, in that order. Snow is the most likely to be scum just given how long it took to join in, but I'll still TP lean for now.
4. AV is the acting Seer

THEREFORE

5. Zelph has to be scum

Zelphas

Orange mine. This sentence seems purposely written from the scum perspective of seeing two non-wolf claims, which is a fair thing to do for town when entertaining options. However, Squork never considers the possibility that AV is a wolf, which would've meant no confusion on the scumteam at all, and would undermine this entire train of thought.

You could argue it's an oversight by an overenthusiastic townie who really believes AV. But then why is she only "acting" Seeer, meaning currently treated as such until we know one way or another? Feels more like he wrote the entire thing, realised he was TMIing AV as legit and then tacked it on.

Also, I never know when I’m being complimented, or if I’m being pocketed. Someone tell me what to think xD

This reads as "Wolf hoping townies who are suspicious of town!Zelphas will double down if he points out the possible pocketing without having to explicitly get his hands dirty."


Now someone please post so this can be separate from the next one, I don't want to end up with a humongous post nobody reads

[AvatarVecna]

Phone posting can't do much but I can give you a line break yeah.

[Taffimai]

Here's why Cazero is in my solve:

Maybe a wolf fakeclaiming when they know they're going to get counterclaimed rather than just pushing someone else with their buddies is not as believable to others as it is to you.

You're writing from the perspective of knowing for a fact who the faker is. We don't, and I at least see possibilities for both of you.

Let's pretend for a moment that the fakeclaimer is a villager.
Not folding when confronted to a counterclaim can only be detrimental to town. At best they distrust the real Crow until the Snake outs themselves. At worst town lynches them both and start aiming for pairs who are also innocent while wolves are free to roam.

I think you misunderstood me. I am in no way suggesting they're both town. I was talking about AV's stance that the first claim is always the fake one.

In this conversation Cazero had with me D1 I think he shows the at that time prevailing mindset of the wolfchat that there are two conflicting non-wolf claims.

Anyway, I believe this game will generate enough chaos on it's own, so I'll be voting Xihirli for now.
Also blade has a point I guess.

Accidentaly? Are we talking about the same person here?

And this feels like a half-hearted bus.


One more linebreak please ❤️

[Snowblaze]

pokes in

I'd read your humongous posts. But have a line break if you want one.

pokes out

[Taffimai]

The alternative world I've been considering is that Xihirli is VT doing her best "Am I or am I not Snake? Better kill me wolves to be sure!"

This would be supported by these posts D1:

My last will and testament. When I'm lynched, scry VECNA.

Will do!
Wait, darn it!

and later:

Neither, both me and Vecna are claiming crow.

[Also Bladescape but let's be honest he's ****posting.]

Cool, toss my name in there too.

This would mean that her read on AV is genuine, and that wolf!Bladescape would be capitalising on her doing something weird D1 that Snow picked up on. However, I'm less inclined to believe this because Occam's Razor and because then I think Xihirli's focus would've been more on defending her scumread on AV than on discrediting Bladescape.


Thanks AV/Snow!

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In this conversation Cazero had with me D1 I think he shows the at that time prevailing mindset of the wolfchat that there are two conflicting non-wolf claims.

Forgot to add that this tracks with Xihirli's claim that "other people thought there might be two town claimants too" if they thought I did.

[Zelphas]

Too tired/discombobulated to formulate full arguments at the moment, and unsure of when the Day will end.

Self-preservation vote on Xihirli looks like what I have to do.

[Taffimai]

And because I'm sorry I put several people twice on there last time, let's see if I can get it right now:

Vote count:

Xihirli 5: Bladescape, Cazero, Taffimai, JeenLeen, Xihirli Zelphas (edited bc apparently, no)
Zelphas 4: Squork, Serpentine, Snow, Xihirli
Armonia 1: AV

Missing: Armonia, Wombat

[AvatarVecna]

Apparently the unfreezing is causing some outages in my area so I'm without PC internet for a few crucial hours. Current thoughts:

I think Xi's possible TMI is plausible for town!Xi. Xihirli just legit thinking different from most people is believable.

Snow directed a question at me something like "if I was wolf why would I call attention to it". Firstly, that's blatant TWTBW. Secondly, it's because the posts only really make sense if you have TMI, which only seer and wolves would have. It is not plausible behavior coming from a townie, even one who is playing sloppy, because this feels to me as a very basic consideration (especially because it was directly called out by Caz). A sloppy townie might see my badger post and not consider that tinfoil, but would then go "oh yeah!" When Caz mentioned the tinfoil. A good wolf would maybe recognize their bias on display and try to hide it, but a sloppy wolf might try to clumsily overcorrect. By your own words you're feeling kind of out of it rn.

TL;DR it doesn't make sense as town behavior even if you're playing town bad (unless you're specifically seer), and it only really makes sense if you're a wolf playing sloppy (and you personally have claimed you think you're playing sloppy). It's the sensible explanation other than "seer". I'm not willing to lynch you over it, mostly because possible seer.

I like Taffs cases. Even pointed out a thing that makes me feel better about townreading Xi: the "other people thought it" wasn't pulled from nowhere.

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I don't think the word choice "acting seer" is AI. I'm not a real seer, but I'm filling a similar mechanical role, and the gamestate functions as of I'm an outed seer. I'm not a seer, exactly, but I am acting as one, and people are generally acting as if I am one.

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Can someone who knows how the game works explain how Nights work? Do we just not vote and wait for people to die?

Is this really that different from how it worked on your forum? I would figure the day/night cycle mechanic is basically universal, or at least features in a majority of games.

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"Loud thread dead wolf" bore fruit D1. Here we've got three people apologizing for not being around to do vote movements. Any guesses what ratio we're looking at here?

Good grief, it was a bad time to not be here for most of the "day". Or maybe good, since Ilven was possibly Badger as long as AvatarVecna is Crow?

Either way, lots to look over. I can hopefully look over and respond to some of the questions/concerns directed towards me and come up with some reads for Day 2.

*checks thread, two pages.*
*reloads, suddenly six.*
Me: Oh damn.

(Had a busy day, apologies)
Anyway, uh, not much to say is there? One wolf down which is good, but at what cost?

To be clear, while I do have a healthy mistrust of you from having been on a wolfteam with you a few times and having badly misread you when we were on opposite sides, I wasn't voting her because I ****ed off and did other stuff immediately after changing my vote because I wasn't expecting the thread to blow up. If I'd been around, I would have switched back.

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Okay, looking through the discussion from yesterday a little bit more, it seems like the main question was seeming distancing from Book Wombat and the fact that Ilven claimed Crow after votes stuck on them. I should learn to stop trying to explain my thought process before I'm asked; it never ends well for me.

I'm going to plan on getting preliminary reads up on remaining players in the next 24 hours or so, hopefully.

Unless I just missed them arguing with Ti, gonna wanna see those reads buddy.

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I can't be bothered to do proper ISOs so you get vague-thoughts-from-skimming instead.

So, let's talk about Squork. (Hey, it rhymes!)

I disagree with a lot of his reads but I think they make sense from the perspective of someone who doesn't know the people here and has a different approach to the game to me. There's some decent observations there, enough to make it seem like a real solving process, but my gut isn't really convinced he's town.

Eh. I don't feel like listening to my gut here. Townlean, pending more information.

(Tinfoil note: Squork is probably highly likely to suggest/encourage the Persolus N1. I think that kill can come from a lot of different wolfteams given dodging baner + he was one of the most active players and not widely suspected, though, so I don't think it's actually sufficient evidence to suspect Squork.)

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I knew I remembered someone doing this:


If this was a newer player I would be snapvoting it, but it's Xihirli and I can't read Xihirli. Actually, no, I do think it's kind of wolfy. Maybe.

(Actual explanation: assuming Crow!AV/Badger!Ilven, wolves had two people claiming Crow neither of whom was a wolf, and are thus a lot more likely to discuss the possibility of town/town claimants since town would just accept as a matter of course it's imp...robable, remembering the Greiger mess last time round.)

The rest of Xihirli's stuff is just standard Xihirli being herself, with the possible exception of trying to wagon AV but considering that my tinfoil voice is refusing to be silenced I can understand that.

AV self-resolves in >90% of circumstances. Killing them is counterproductive. We shouldn't do it. I'll keep repeating that to myself for a while.

If yall want some top tier tinfoiling, try to figure out what "Hey it rhymes" means and lose your mind.

Almost positive this means we're not looking at a first draft. At some point there was a rhyme here and snow mentioned that to keep things light, but the rhyme got revised out of existence, leaving a commentary in its wake. Wolves tend to be more edity than townies.

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My intuition tells me that Xi just wants to enforce the no flip part of the game. Not sure if it's AI.

*nods along*

[Lady Serpentine]

I'm pretty sure some accents have "Talk" as something like "Tork", which would rhyme with Squork.

[AvatarVecna]

Xi feels like she's in her town game in multiple ways. I see the arguments for Zelphas, I'm just pretty skeptical about D1 being badger/wolf. If D1 was badger/wolf, you'd think Illven's wagon would be heavier with wolves, meaning there's more people who believed her claim than mine, but today's discussions don't really have that vibe. I don't really like either of these wagons.

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I'm pretty sure some accents have "Talk" as something like "Tork", which would rhyme with Squork.

That sounds plausible in a TIHI kinda way

[Snowblaze]

You did miss Zelphas's reads list, AV:

Spoiler: Zelphas's reads

Show

I know myself in these games well enough to know that I get analysis paralysis and/or too busy right as the Days end, so I don't like making a post without a vote. As a quiet player without any real heat on them at the moment, Book Wombat is far from the best place for my vote to rest at the end of the day once things are more talked through, but they are a safe place for my vote to rest for town; if they become a point of discussion, it's almost certainly because they gave a tell as scum, and so my vote boosts a needed wagon. If they aren't mention, my vote won't be a part of any wagon, and therefore won't get in the way of the rest of town catching a wolf.

That being said, let's see if I can put together some ideas for what I actually think is going on.

Persolus - Dead town, according to AvatarVecna.

bladescape - As cryptic as ever. Possible soft snake claim, though that might just be their gut/deduction skills. Faint townlean, though I admit there's nothing to support this aside from vibes.

Xihirli - Stated at the bottom of page 1 her playstyle, and seems to be following it... which works just as well if she's town as if she's wolf. Null.

AvatarVecna - Counterclaimed Crow. Has been one of the most active players so far, with plenty of information and argument. I'm leery of trusting a contentious flip in this game, when we have no confirmation of kills aside from one person's word. This should be a townlean, but ends up as null due to paranoia.

Ilven - Dead Badger, according to AvatarVecna.

Zelphas - Town, no special roles.

Snowblaze - One of the most active players on the thread, who is currently tunneling on me. I think I always townlean Snowblaze, and that still holds true here.

Book Wombat - Has the same number of posts I had before this one... which is to say, three. Null; not enough information.

JeenLeen - Another one of the active posters, with lots of information in each post. I like information, and what they've posted seems solid. Townlean for the moment.

Cazero - Not a big poster at first, but more posts as time went by; though a lot of it is in response to JeenLeen's question. Slight wolflean, maybe just convinced by others' arguments; shifting my vote here.

Taffimai - Another major poster, giving good ideas and questions. Townlean for the same reason I'm townleaning JeenLeen.

Armonia13 - Still no posts. Null.

Squork - New but seasoned player, which is interesting. Lots of solid analysis (one of which puts me in a bad position, but there's not much I can do about my Day 1 vote at this point). Solid townlean.

LadySerpentine - Doesn't post as often as some (more often than many, myself included), but when they do post, it's nearly always lots of info. Their vote on Squork is mostly extrapolations and suppositions rather than solid facts, but it seems at least thought out. Townlean.


So, that's it from me at the moment, such as it is.

And Ti is right, the rhyme I referred to was indeed "talk" and "Squork". (What does TIHI stand for, incidentally?)

[AvatarVecna]

You did miss Zelphas's reads list, AV:

Spoiler: Zelphas's reads

Show

And Ti is right, the rhyme I referred to was indeed "talk" and "Squork". (What does TIHI stand for, incidentally?)

Thanks

"Thanks I Hate It"

[Valmark]

Currently looking for a replacement for Armonia13, in any case they'll sub in after EOD (essentially in place of autolynching).

Found! flat_footed shall join us in place of Armonia13 after EoD. Assuming Armonia13 doesn't join us at least.

[Squork]

Given my personal background I can't help but appreciate someone seeing the exclamation mark and thinking about its IT meaning.

The best part is Pers knows I absolutely suck at coding so he's probably rolling around and cringing in his grave xD

Hm wagon feels too easy.

Honestly... I agree. The two largest wagons are the two biggest scum reads I've had all game, and in my experience that usually means I'm wrong lmfao. I meant to look more into it last night, but the booze made me sleepy and not solvey.

Here's why Squork is in my solve:



Orange mine. This sentence seems purposely written from the scum perspective of seeing two non-wolf claims, which is a fair thing to do for town when entertaining options. However, Squork never considers the possibility that AV is a wolf, which would've meant no confusion on the scumteam at all, and would undermine this entire train of thought.

You could argue it's an oversight by an overenthusiastic townie who really believes AV. But then why is she only "acting" Seeer, meaning currently treated as such until we know one way or another? Feels more like he wrote the entire thing, realised he was TMIing AV as legit and then tacked it on.

I think you misunderstood what I meant by acting Seer (which yes should've been acting crow). I meant that AV was acting as a town special lead, whereas Zelph didn't have anything like that going for him. Voting her out would've been detrimental to the town that early on. Even if she comes up scum later, she was providing some information in the form of the nightfall results and activity. At that time, we had very little information at that point. Now that we do have a lot more information I have considered the idea that she could be scum, I just think it isn't likely. The real crow would've come in by now, unless Armonia was crow and that was known by the scum team, which makes no sense to me.

This reads as "Wolf hoping townies who are suspicious of town!Zelphas will double down if he points out the possible pocketing without having to explicitly get his hands dirty."

Lmao nah I seriously can't tell if I'm being pocketed most of the time.

Is this really that different from how it worked on your forum? I would figure the day/night cycle mechanic is basically universal, or at least features in a majority of games.

It seriously is and it's messing with my brain lol. It makes sense mechanically, but I'm just so used to getting all of that information at once and the next day starting immediately. Like I said before, I AM NOT A NOOB, NOR AM I TRYING TO PRETEND TO BE ONE.

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Too tired/discombobulated to formulate full arguments at the moment, and unsure of when the Day will end.

Self-preservation vote on Xihirli looks like what I have to do.

You must've missed my question. What's your biggest hot take in terms of alignment? Your list was really safe and consensus-like.

[Lady Serpentine]

"The real Crow would have come in by now" appears to be entirely discounting the possibility of "Illven was Crow, AV is Wolf/Badger". (Presumably Badger, as otherwise Snake would probably have spoken up by now. Unless they chose to scry someone else, or Armonia is Snake, but I think the former, at least, is unlikely given the circumstances. Not going to speculate on the probability of the latter.)

While I do think that AV is more likely than not to be Crow, can you elaborate on why you think so to that degree? Because that's only reinforcing Taff's point that this reads like TMI that confirms AV to be Crow and you as a wolf.

[Squork]

"The real Crow would have come in by now" appears to be entirely discounting the possibility of "Illven was Crow, AV is Wolf/Badger". (Presumably Badger, as otherwise Snake would probably have spoken up by now. Unless they chose to scry someone else, or Armonia is Snake, but I think the former, at least, is unlikely given the circumstances. Not going to speculate on the probability of the latter.)

While I do think that AV is more likely than not to be Crow, can you elaborate on why you think so to that degree? Because that's only reinforcing Taff's point that this reads like TMI that confirms AV to be Crow and you as a wolf.

Ah yes, fair point. I guess I haven't talked about that enough.

There are wagons and scum leans all the time in this game, especially D1. There were more than 24 hours left in that Day when Il panicked, and did so with only three votes on her. I would wager that with all that time, town would've found another person to vote just due to how fluid this game is. I also feel like Ilven is an experienced player. So if this is the case, why would she be so desperate to announce her role like this? It just doesn't make any sense, and looking back it seems like a powerwolf trying to take control of the town early. I think that's a much more likely situation than what you propose.

[Taffimai]

Ah yes, fair point. I guess I haven't talked about that enough.

There are wagons and scum leans all the time in this game, especially D1. There were more than 24 hours left in that Day when Il panicked, and did so with only three votes on her. I would wager that with all that time, town would've found another person to vote just due to how fluid this game is. I also feel like Ilven is an experienced player. So if this is the case, why would she be so desperate to announce her role like this? It just doesn't make any sense, and looking back it seems like a powerwolf trying to take control of the town early. I think that's a much more likely situation than what you propose.

I believe this is Illven's second or third game. How does that influence your opinion?

[Squork]

I believe this is Illven's second or third game. How does that influence your opinion?

Ah ****, so panicking would make sense if this was her first time having a special role. It actually makes a lot of sense. And if AV is an experienced player and wolf/badger, it means she can take advantage of a noob.

[Book Wombat]

Ah ****, so panicking would make sense if this was her first time having a special role. It actually makes a lot of sense. And if AV is an experienced player and wolf/badger, it means she can take advantage of a noob.

Most of the games here are all-powered, so that is a bit less likely. Ilven being new still stands though.
——
In general not much to say, but I̶̢͈͝'̵̰͗̅͌͂m̶͕̟͍̄̔̾͛͝ ̷̻̮̩͍͎̅͐͛̃͝w̸̝̼̅̒̏́á̵͚t̶̟̀c̸͎̯̲͖̄̒̕͜ḧ̷̖̤́́͂̕i̶̧̎͂ ̗ņ̷͕̽̆͠g̵̜̦̈̈̈́̓͝.̴͔̙̦̞̾̒̊

[Taffimai]

Ah yes, fair point. I guess I haven't talked about that enough.

There are wagons and scum leans all the time in this game, especially D1. There were more than 24 hours left in that Day when Il panicked, and did so with only three votes on her. I would wager that with all that time, town would've found another person to vote just due to how fluid this game is. I also feel like Ilven is an experienced player. So if this is the case, why would she be so desperate to announce her role like this? It just doesn't make any sense, and looking back it seems like a powerwolf trying to take control of the town early. I think that's a much more likely situation than what you propose.

The main thing bothering me here is that the only way Illven could've been a wolf is if AV is Badger and Flat is about to fly in here tonight claiming Crow... So this doesn't seem like a genuine thought process.

Am I confbiasing?

[Squork]

The main thing bothering me here is that the only way Illven could've been a wolf is if AV is Badger and Flat is about to fly in here tonight claiming Crow... So this doesn't seem like a genuine thought process.

Am I confbiasing?

I don't think this is possible, or it would mean that Badger and Scum royally screwed up by putting so much attention on them (unless this explains why AV has been less active this round?). I think the only way their back-and-forth happens is if they are on two separate factions (considering Badger to be scum here) but now I'm not sure. If Flat comes in claiming crow then I'd be on team keep both for tonight, and we see what both sides say about those who die. This would mean we vote one of the two D3.

I'm just mad I didn't realize Ilvens a new player. Totally messes with my reads because I still think Xihi is scum, but now it means either Zelph or AV is scum from one of my previous posts.

[Lady Serpentine]

Wolves don't know Badger, and the inverse. What makes that mistake impossible?

[Squork]

Wolves don't know Badger, and the inverse. What makes that mistake impossible?

If AV is scum and Il is badger, the fact that both of them could’ve been outed in such short order means a rather substantial error had to have been made. In a game with a badger, it would make sense for them to false claim at some point, so would an actual scum not try and take their time to properly formulate a response with their teammates? It seems like it was responded to a little too quickly to be properly thought through if scum, which doesn’t sound like it’s AV’s scum meta from what I’ve gathered. This is why I’m starting to think AV is more likely to be telling the truth here, but i would rather wait until the sub comes in to see if they claim anything.

[Lady Serpentine]

...A good try at dodging, buuuuut the situation proposed was AV as Badger and Illven as wolf claiming to lure out Crow. Because you were proposing that.

[AvatarVecna]

Squork. Sorry.

[Taffimai]

Are there three more people here who are willing to squash Squork?

[Lady Serpentine]

My understanding is that day theoretically was going to be ending an hour ago if Valmark had been around at that time. So while I'd like to give it a go on account of Squork being my initial lean, I have some concerns about the viability of that proposal.

[Taffimai]

My understanding is that day theoretically was going to be ending an hour ago if Valmark had been around at that time. So while I'd like to give it a go on account of Squork being my initial lean, I have some concerns about the viability of that proposal.

Good call, it wouldn't be fair to take advantage of the narrator being busy like that!

[Lady Serpentine]

I'm less concerned about fairness - the day hasn't ended; nothing unfair about that - and more about day ending mid-switch.

[AvatarVecna]

If you both switched it'd go from 5-4-1 to 4-3-3, with the same person (Xi) leading the lynch. Squorks wagon failing to overcome the others just means the same lynch result as if we didn't do anything. May as well try, yknow?