Yu-Gi-Oh! ZeXal!

[AvatarVecna]

I'm gonna have to read mech aren't i

[Batcathat]

So, potentially stupid question but... do we know if the wolves have a night kill? I kind of assumed they had a factional one, but the rules doesn't actually seem to say anything about it.

[Allando]

Caedorus was being suspicious by not acting like I'm used to. All previous games he was extremely against claiming in general. I still have no clue why he decided to hint being the seer - it was probably why he got eliminated.
For now, Flat_Footed. You're the most suspicious vote change IMO.

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So, potentially stupid question but... do we know if the wolves have a night kill? I kind of assumed they had a factional one, but the rules doesn't actually seem to say anything about it.

Do they have one, do they have to use it? My first thought was the latter.

[flat_footed]

If Allando flips wolf, flat_footed looks bad. His vote essentially protected Allando and sealed Caedorus' death.

Caedorus was being suspicious by not acting like I'm used to. All previous games he was extremely against claiming in general. I still have no clue why he decided to hint being the seer - it was probably why he got eliminated.
For now, Flat_Footed. You're the most suspicious vote change IMO.

There's not much further to look into for my vote than what I already said, it was the only thing that stood out to me between Allando and Caedorus. I made a choice to break the tie, turns out it was the wrong one assuming we weren't TvT. I don't have much time now, working graveyard yesterday and today. I'll be back in ~12 hours.

Voting Allando here crossed my mind to try and prove I'm not protecting them. Best case scenario they flip wolf and then I look wolfy, worst case they are town and we lose another member. In any case, no vote from me yet.

[Batcathat]

Not sure whether Allando and flat turning on each other makes me trust them more or less. I could see two wolves sensing which way the wind was blowing and deciding to bus each other, hoping the survivor would look towny.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

I'll try to put in more time and post more this phase but I'm not gonna be around as much as I was in years past. Did a reads list of everyone for Day 1 at least and looking at the Caedorus wagon is probably the place to start.




Let'sGetKracken is a decently confident Town read for me. Engaging with everyone plenty and just gives off town vibes.



Snowblaze I'm not 100% sold on as Town but I'm sold on her being an active player who is contributing. That's enough for me right now, as the game goes on I know I'll have more to look back at and make a decision on.

JeenLeen doesn't have too many posts but they are comparatively longer and it gives me more of an engaged town vibe than the one line posts of most other players. Wouldn't call it a Town lean but a "don't need to deal with right now" lean.



Avatar Vecna's main talking points in the thread have been about a potential role hint. Want more but it's AV so it's not like this is out of character.

Book Wombat is sort of in the same boat as AV in my mind. There's nothing that I feel is super out of character for Book but there's nothing that's giving town vibes and I don't want to wait forever to figure him out.

bladscape joints this group of "their play makes sense for them, which means I don't have any read yet".



BatCatHat on a reread is looking more like normal but also... I don't like that his post turned Caedorus into an actual wagon with some justification. I have a nagging feeling that it's Wolf motivated to get rid of at least one person who soft claimed a role so it's not a problem later.

Allando isn't looking great now that Caedorus has flipped Town. I can't decide if I like that he posted more than the other people who voted Caedorus or it feels like a Wolf trying to show some sort of activity. Hopefully gonna figure that out today.

flat_footed doesn't look good to me. Only two posts are a random vote and then the last vote on Caedorus. It's a bit obvious for a wolf to be the last vote on a Townie but could have been meant to help protect Allanfo, Snow, or BatCatHat against last minute vote switching (it was about 2 hours before deadline).

Illven feels suspicious to me as well. I don't know if this sort of activity is normal, but a random vote that stuck through the day, commenting a couple times on AV, and then a post basically saying they're happy with their vote.



Persolus Is in the "need more info" zone too but gets a little less leeway than Lady Serpentine since he was around at the beginning of the Day at least.

Lady Serpentine hasn't posted enough for me to get a definite read on.



Copying over the End of Day 1 votecount to have it somewhere.

Caedorus 4: Allando, Illven, Batcathat, flat_footed
Allando 3: Persolus, bladescape, Snowblaze
Snowblaze 2: Let'sGetKraken, JeenLeen
Batcathat 3: AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Caedorus
Let'sGetKraken 1: Lady Serpentine
CaoimhinTheCape 1: Book Wombat

[bladescape]

Welp I was hit by Marin last night.

[AvatarVecna]

Got a guess at who Illven is. Abi says hi?

Welp I was hit by Marin last night.

*squints*

[bladescape]

Got a guess at who Illven is. Abi says hi?



*squints*

Squints? 10chars

[AvatarVecna]

Squints? 10chars

[Let'sGetKraken]

I'll try to put in more time and post more this phase but I'm not gonna be around as much as I was in years past. Did a reads list of everyone for Day 1 at least and looking at the Caedorus wagon is probably the place to start.




Let'sGetKracken is a decently confident Town read for me. Engaging with everyone plenty and just gives off town vibes.



Snowblaze I'm not 100% sold on as Town but I'm sold on her being an active player who is contributing. That's enough for me right now, as the game goes on I know I'll have more to look back at and make a decision on.

JeenLeen doesn't have too many posts but they are comparatively longer and it gives me more of an engaged town vibe than the one line posts of most other players. Wouldn't call it a Town lean but a "don't need to deal with right now" lean.



Avatar Vecna's main talking points in the thread have been about a potential role hint. Want more but it's AV so it's not like this is out of character.

Book Wombat is sort of in the same boat as AV in my mind. There's nothing that I feel is super out of character for Book but there's nothing that's giving town vibes and I don't want to wait forever to figure him out.

bladscape joints this group of "their play makes sense for them, which means I don't have any read yet".



BatCatHat on a reread is looking more like normal but also... I don't like that his post turned Caedorus into an actual wagon with some justification. I have a nagging feeling that it's Wolf motivated to get rid of at least one person who soft claimed a role so it's not a problem later.

Allando isn't looking great now that Caedorus has flipped Town. I can't decide if I like that he posted more than the other people who voted Caedorus or it feels like a Wolf trying to show some sort of activity. Hopefully gonna figure that out today.

flat_footed doesn't look good to me. Only two posts are a random vote and then the last vote on Caedorus. It's a bit obvious for a wolf to be the last vote on a Townie but could have been meant to help protect Allanfo, Snow, or BatCatHat against last minute vote switching (it was about 2 hours before deadline).

Illven feels suspicious to me as well. I don't know if this sort of activity is normal, but a random vote that stuck through the day, commenting a couple times on AV, and then a post basically saying they're happy with their vote.



Persolus Is in the "need more info" zone too but gets a little less leeway than Lady Serpentine since he was around at the beginning of the Day at least.

Lady Serpentine hasn't posted enough for me to get a definite read on.



Copying over the End of Day 1 votecount to have it somewhere.

Caedorus 4: Allando, Illven, Batcathat, flat_footed
Allando 3: Persolus, bladescape, Snowblaze
Snowblaze 2: Let'sGetKraken, JeenLeen
Batcathat 3: AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Caedorus
Let'sGetKraken 1: Lady Serpentine
CaoimhinTheCape 1: Book Wombat

I actually was about to say that I wanted to see more from you and Persolus, but this is great stuff. Largely NAI at this point since you did have some sus on you and a wolf might do a deep dive like this to secure town status (I know I did in Mysterium), but happy to see activity.

Is it rude of me to ask how you're alive, Blade? Or is that info detrimental if it's revealed now?

Edit: Ah no I am an idiot. I thought that was the dice-destroy power. That tracks. This actually seems townish for me, since this is a bold ****ing claim if someone else got Marin'd. Could be a wolf claiming but feels a little more townish here.

Persolus for pressure.

[Illven]

Edit: Ah no I am an idiot. I thought that was the dice-destroy power. That tracks. This actually seems townish for me, since this is a bold ****ing claim if someone else got Marin'd. Could be a wolf claiming but feels a little more townish here.

Um. So here's a thought.

How do we know there's a Marin? If bladescape is a wolf, and knows there's no marin they know it's a safe claim to make. Alternatively they may know the Marin didn't target. Etc.

As for Vecna. Not quite.

[JeenLeen]

Um. So here's a thought.

How do we know there's a Marin? If bladescape is a wolf, and knows there's no marin they know it's a safe claim to make. Alternatively they may know the Marin didn't target. Etc.

Fair point.
The wolves obviously know what wolves are in play. (Based on meta aspects, I assume the wolves know what roles aren't in play for town as well, but that's tangential here.) So it would be easy, and a good source for towncred, for a wolf to say they were impacted when they weren't. Might even help if the wolf plans on fakeclaiming an info-gathering role but wants an excuse not to know too much.

If bladescape is a wolf, I'd bet Marin isn't in play. I don't see the wolves willingly giving up a semi-void for some towncred.

So, potentially stupid question but... do we know if the wolves have a night kill? I kind of assumed they had a factional one, but the rules doesn't actually seem to say anything about it.

I assumed so, but, yeah, you're right.
Xihirli: do the wolves get a NK?

If they do... am I right that nobody's power could have blocked it N1?
If they do AND it couldn't have been blocked, some heat to the inactive players. It's hard to believe the wolves might forget to put in a NK, and from bladescape (if honest) we know at least one was around to put in a night action.
But I think we saw the wolves forget to NK in one of AV's ghost games, so it can happen.

[Persolus]

Hello! I am alive and apologise again for inactivity. Today was also a day, but in the very good direction, so nice but still distracting.

It's quite simple - Nistro targeted someone, they're going to die next phase. Nistro, if you want to step forth and reveal who you targeted, then that's two cleared townies for this voting phase.

[I clarified with Xi that flips only happen when you are finally destroyed]

[Snowblaze]

Morning.

Wolves don't have a nightkill, they turn people into XYZ Material so their votes count for wolves instead. (Some people might get towncred for lack of TMI on that? Will check.)

Don't think that was stated explicitly in the OP but I do remember Xihirli saying it somewhere - in Central? Will check.

Caoimhin's reads list makes me feel better about them, still wouldn't commit to a townread there but not a priority for today.

AV, explain why you squinted at bladescape's claim, please.

I have other stuff but need to check/find quotes first.

[Batcathat]

Don't think that was stated explicitly in the OP but I do remember Xihirli saying it somewhere - in Central? Will check.

Oh yeah, you're right:

The Rank-Ups are just their passives, don’t need to unlock. Continuing in the GX tradition I’ve given the wolves active powers and passive powers. Also experimenting with a nonlethal night-kill that accelerates the clock MORE than a night kill.

One thing that made me question wolves not having a night kill was that it seemed so unlikely that no one would've commented on it in the recruitment thread or the game, but I suppose this explains it.

[Snowblaze]

On Allando: apparently I missed this last night so scratch the questions that came with the vote.

Hm, OK. I definitely suspect all the people voting Caedorus a little - yes, I know.
I'd have to go see who looks the most pockety, though.
Flat footed... you jumped on the wagon last second to avoid a tie. However, since Caedorus reached 3 votes first, there was no need, so a cunning wolf wouldn't have done that, unless again they have knowledge of vote manipulations, and why would the wolves do that, seeing as I was the other wagon? Did they somehow know Caedorus was a scry, and thus a waay better elimination than me? Or is this all some cunning wolf plan to sus me?
Aaaaaah my brains.
Other reads: Snowblaze, null. You started off slightly wolfy, but after that you've been solvy, but then again, as Caedorus said, that is more NAI for you than anything else.
The problem I'm having is I have too many people on the maybe wolf list and too few anywhere else. I agree with you that we need more info, I'm hoping the nk will clarify some.

Mmm. If I squint I can see things I like here but then...

Caedorus was being suspicious by not acting like I'm used to. All previous games he was extremely against claiming in general. I still have no clue why he decided to hint being the seer - it was probably why he got eliminated.
For now, Flat_Footed. You're the most suspicious vote change IMO.

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Do they have one, do they have to use it? My first thought was the latter.

...which I'm not so much a fan of, especially since it... doesn't really fit with the previous post?

Can you talk me through the progression between the bolded lines, please? How did you go from "it doesn't make sense why wolves would do this, but here's a possibility that might somehow have occurred" to "this is almost certainly what happened" (since "wolves noticed the softs and got Caedorus killed as a result" follows from the latter bolded line)?

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Oh yeah, you're right:



One thing that made me question wolves not having a night kill was that it seemed so unlikely that no one would've commented on it in the recruitment thread or the game, but I suppose this explains it.

That was indeed the quote I was thinking of, thanks for finding it.

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Okay, Jeen is the main person in the "potential towncred for lack of TMI" pile.

Also slightly walking back my suspicion of Allando's last post, I initially found it suspicious for over-justifying voting town yesterday but it was actually a response to Jeen which makes that particular point invalid.

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Illven, can I get a reads list/summary of your current thoughts about the game, please? I don't really have an idea of where you stand on anything aorn, which is mildly concerning.

(Incidentally, Illven/bladescape not w/w.)

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Though bladescape is probably town anyway? The claim is part of that but I think in general he's been playing how I expect town!him to play.

(Is it bad that I kind of want to play against wolf!bladescape to see if I end up misclearing him?)

[Batcathat]

Let's go with Allando for now to have more than one wagon (though when we get close to EoD it might be a good idea to make sure someone is in a solid lead, since vote manipulation is likely).

(Is it bad that I kind of want to play against wolf!bladescape to see if I end up misclearing him?)

Maybe it'll be like whatever game it was when you were a wolf and blade was (at least publicly) townreading you to such an unreasonable degree that my main reason for townreading blade was that no wolf would be that blatantly supporting of a buddy.

[Snowblaze]

Let's go with Allando for now to have more than one wagon (though when we get close to EoD it might be a good idea to make sure someone is in a solid lead, since vote manipulation is likely).



Maybe it'll be like whatever game it was when you were a wolf and blade was (at least publicly) townreading you to such an unreasonable degree that my main reason for townreading blade was that no wolf would be that blatantly supporting of a buddy.

Probably the original Yu-Gi-Oh! actually. That was fun, he wouldn't vote me when I was mechanically outed so I made up a conspiracy theory about him being my partner and then when I got to deadchat people were suggesting exactly that theory.

Also, yes, be aware someone's vote probably won't count and a wolf's will probably count twice. So... actually let me run numbers.

Spoiler: numbers

Show

Let's say for the sake of argument we have three wolves.

Currently 11:3 with Nash's power making it 10:4
D2 mislynch then 10:3, 9:5
D3 mislynch then 9:3, 6:6
So effectively D3 is MyLo.

Though, yes, I am oversimplifying considerably here because we could mislynch XYZ Material which would take votes away from wolves, and there's probably other ways people can die.

Yeah, we're not screwed yet but we could do with killing a wolf today, and also be aware that in general LyLo will arrive a lot sooner than we'd normally expect.

[AvatarVecna]

Nash's power is interesting because it's analogous to a cult power, but weaker. Normally, a cultist targets player X, and going forward Player X is voting with scumteam, using powers with scumteam, and sharing thoughts with scumteam. Here, scumteam only gets player X's vote, and anyone "recruited to the cult" detransitions should the cult leader be targeted for death. However, targeting the cult leader for death just gets rid of their vote power; you've gotta kill them a second time before they gain any more, or they have kill protection again. To actually get ahead of the cult leader, you need banes that can protect from culting, voids that can prevent him from culting, or kill powers; "just the lynch" is insufficient.

Also, the game could actually be over today. Say that the scumteam is Nash/Alito.

D1: Starts living 12:2/voting 12:2. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 11:2/voting 11:2.
N1: Yuma cults someone into a lover. Nash cults a non-lover into material. Ends living 11:2/voting 10:3.
D2: Starts living 11:2/voting 10:3. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 10:2/voting 9:3.
N2: Yuma cults. Nash cults. Alito rolls a 6 on a lover. No other overlaps. Ends 6:2/voting 4:4.
D3: GG EZ PZ NO RE

[Let'sGetKraken]

Um. So here's a thought.

How do we know there's a Marin? If bladescape is a wolf, and knows there's no marin they know it's a safe claim to make. Alternatively they may know the Marin didn't target. Etc.

As for Vecna. Not quite.

Fair point.
The wolves obviously know what wolves are in play. (Based on meta aspects, I assume the wolves know what roles aren't in play for town as well, but that's tangential here.) So it would be easy, and a good source for towncred, for a wolf to say they were impacted when they weren't. Might even help if the wolf plans on fakeclaiming an info-gathering role but wants an excuse not to know too much.

If bladescape is a wolf, I'd bet Marin isn't in play. I don't see the wolves willingly giving up a semi-void for some towncred.



I assumed so, but, yeah, you're right.
Xihirli: do the wolves get a NK?

If they do... am I right that nobody's power could have blocked it N1?
If they do AND it couldn't have been blocked, some heat to the inactive players. It's hard to believe the wolves might forget to put in a NK, and from bladescape (if honest) we know at least one was around to put in a night action.
But I think we saw the wolves forget to NK in one of AV's ghost games, so it can happen.

Nash's power is interesting because it's analogous to a cult power, but weaker. Normally, a cultist targets player X, and going forward Player X is voting with scumteam, using powers with scumteam, and sharing thoughts with scumteam. Here, scumteam only gets player X's vote, and anyone "recruited to the cult" detransitions should the cult leader be targeted for death. However, targeting the cult leader for death just gets rid of their vote power; you've gotta kill them a second time before they gain any more, or they have kill protection again. To actually get ahead of the cult leader, you need banes that can protect from culting, voids that can prevent him from culting, or kill powers; "just the lynch" is insufficient.

Also, the game could actually be over today. Say that the scumteam is Nash/Alito.

D1: Starts living 12:2/voting 12:2. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 11:2/voting 11:2.
N1: Yuma cults someone into a lover. Nash cults a non-lover into material. Ends living 11:2/voting 10:3.
D2: Starts living 11:2/voting 10:3. Mislynch a non-lover. Ends living 10:2/voting 9:3.
N2: Yuma cults. Nash cults. Alito rolls a 6 on a lover. No other overlaps. Ends 6:2/voting 4:4.
D3: GG EZ PZ NO RE

This is all valid.... but now bladescape has locked themselves into claiming a targeting power that can provide a result normally (otherwise he would not be certain that it was Marin and not just a power failing). It reduces the space to claim in. I would expect to see it from a wolf under pressure, but without much on blade this feels more townish to me.

[AvatarVecna]

AV, explain why you squinted at bladescape's claim, please.

Let's compare a couple roles:

Kite – the Light: Your father, Doctor Faker, made a pact with the Barians that put yourself and your brother at risk and you’ve been paying for it your whole life. This war is personal for you.
Galaxy-Eyes Photon Dragon:
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player. Starting in the next Standby Phase, if you ever vote for that Player, they cannot activate any abilit(ies) on the next Main Phase 2. A maximum of 3 Player(s) can have this effect at once.

Dextra – The Referee: You were present when Dr. Faker and Quinton were putting Kite through torture to mold him into a weapon. You were the only one who saw that he was a kid. And now you’re the only adult looking out for his safety.
Photon Papilloperative
During your Main Phase 2: Target 1 player. Starting the next Standby Phase, that Player can EITHER make a vote on their Main Phase One OR use their special ability on their Main Phase 2, not both. This effect can be active on only one Player at a time.

Marin – The Empress
Nash’s sister in a past life, Reginald’s sister Rio in this one, you stand by your people in this world or the next. Sometimes that means you agree with your brother, sometimes…
Number 103: Ragnazero
On your Main Phase 2: Target 1 Player.
Regardless of that Player’s ability, they will receive the feedback "no result" after the next end phase.
Rank-Up Magic: Barian’s Force If you are Destroyed in battle, one random person who voted for you is also destroyed.

Marin isn't a voider. The ability doesn't say anything to that effect, and doesn't read anything like the powers that are indisputably voiders. In fact, if we wanna get really technical, it doesn't even say that "no result" replaces the players normal feedback, so it's possible that this isn't even a pseudo-void for scry abilities, but rather just a taunt of "hey, I'm in the game!" But let's go with a worst-case scenario, and say that Marin has a full-blown void, even though the power doesn't read like the other void power in existence and only vaguely gestures in that direction.

Marin has two powers. One is a void that informs their target of one scumteam role in play. The other is a beast power that doesn't apply to nightkills, which town has...three of? The most dangerous one is Quattro; presuming that blade is being honest and Quattro is in play, what happens now is that Quattro spends each night going "Player X is Marin", a kill power that cannot possibly backfire on town and actually has a chance of killing a wolf. That's a good vig power, and a good use of it...if blade is telling the truth. But put yourself in Marin's shoes: why void at all?

Yuma is almost as big a threat to town as Barians are.

Astra's power is opt-in.

Tori could accidentally help Barians, and even if she helps town, look how many town powers aren't worth voiding here.

Bronk maybe doesn't do anything.

Anna definitely doesn't do anything until at least the fourth standby phase.

Flip is a secret voter who doesn't even know which player he's secretly voting for (we don't even get a count of how many times each person got voted, so this isn't even a pseudo-scry).

Nistro gives a single townie an extra night to use their power, in exchange for denying the rest of town the ability to aim their powers based on the information that flip would've given them.

Kari randomly has extra vote power, which scumteam may or may not be stealing.

Byron is dead.

Quinton is slightly harder to lynch but not really, or can have some extra vote power which is 1) very obvious, and 2) can be stolen by Nash.

Trey copies powers, and look at all these "not worth voiding" powers he has to choose from. In fairness I guess he could choose a Barian.





That leaves Kite (voider), Dextra (voider), Quattro (vig), Kathy (watcher), and maybe Trey (power copier) as people wolves would actually want to void N1. At best, that is 5 roles of the 15 that are in the game. Even if all five of them are in play (unlikely), that's about a 50% chance of voiding someone wolves actually want voided, in exchange for telling a townie that the beast is in the game and should be killed via vig instead of lynched. And again this is all assuming the worst case scenario where despite reading barely anything like it, Marin is actually a voider instead of just someone who sends a taunting message that doesn't even replace the target's normal feedback. At absolute best for wolves and worst for town, it's a coinflip whether it was a good void or not.

And who do they decide to reveal themselves to? Who do they decide to give an inch to, in the hope that their target won't take a mile? bladescape.

If I were wolf voider/beast, I'd skip using my power before I considered telling bladescape the beast was in play, unless I knew for absolute sure bladescape had a vital power that absolutely had to be prevented. More likely though, I'd just target someone else, someone less likely to use that tiny morsel of information and actually do something useful with it.

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And of course, the alternative to "wolves took a huge risk for no reason giving town!blade info in the vain hope town!blade had a power worth voiding" is "scum!blade is lying about who the wolf team is to throw town off for even as little as a single extra phase since game could end really really quickly". Heck even if Nash isn't in play, a fake Marin gambit is the kind of thing that could distract Quattro from hunting for wolves that are actually in the game.

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Oh and naturally, if Marin's power is specifically a feedback-replacer and thus voids roles that get feedback...well, the seer is dead. I guess they could void Kathy or Trey? But that's even worse odds.

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Gonna go get breakfast. I already know the first thing I'll dig into when I return.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Let's compare a couple roles:



Marin isn't a voider. The ability doesn't say anything to that effect, and doesn't read anything like the powers that are indisputably voiders. In fact, if we wanna get really technical, it doesn't even say that "no result" replaces the players normal feedback, so it's possible that this isn't even a pseudo-void for scry abilities, but rather just a taunt of "hey, I'm in the game!" But let's go with a worst-case scenario, and say that Marin has a full-blown void, even though the power doesn't read like the other void power in existence and only vaguely gestures in that direction.

Marin has two powers. One is a void that informs their target of one scumteam role in play. The other is a beast power that doesn't apply to nightkills, which town has...three of? The most dangerous one is Quattro; presuming that blade is being honest and Quattro is in play, what happens now is that Quattro spends each night going "Player X is Marin", a kill power that cannot possibly backfire on town and actually has a chance of killing a wolf. That's a good vig power, and a good use of it...if blade is telling the truth. But put yourself in Marin's shoes: why void at all?

Yuma is almost as big a threat to town as Barians are.

Astra's power is opt-in.

Tori could accidentally help Barians, and even if she helps town, look how many town powers aren't worth voiding here.

Bronk maybe doesn't do anything.

Anna definitely doesn't do anything until at least the fourth standby phase.

Flip is a secret voter who doesn't even know which player he's secretly voting for (we don't even get a count of how many times each person got voted, so this isn't even a pseudo-scry).

Nistro gives a single townie an extra night to use their power, in exchange for denying the rest of town the ability to aim their powers based on the information that flip would've given them.

Kari randomly has extra vote power, which scumteam may or may not be stealing.

Byron is dead.

Quinton is slightly harder to lynch but not really, or can have some extra vote power which is 1) very obvious, and 2) can be stolen by Nash.

Trey copies powers, and look at all these "not worth voiding" powers he has to choose from. In fairness I guess he could choose a Barian.





That leaves Kite (voider), Dextra (voider), Quattro (vig), Kathy (watcher), and maybe Trey (power copier) as people wolves would actually want to void N1. At best, that is 5 roles of the 15 that are in the game. Even if all five of them are in play (unlikely), that's about a 50% chance of voiding someone wolves actually want voided, in exchange for telling a townie that the beast is in the game and should be killed via vig instead of lynched. And again this is all assuming the worst case scenario where despite reading barely anything like it, Marin is actually a voider instead of just someone who sends a taunting message that doesn't even replace the target's normal feedback. At absolute best for wolves and worst for town, it's a coinflip whether it was a good void or not.

And who do they decide to reveal themselves to? Who do they decide to give an inch to, in the hope that their target won't take a mile? bladescape.

If I were wolf voider/beast, I'd skip using my power before I considered telling bladescape the beast was in play, unless I knew for absolute sure bladescape had a vital power that absolutely had to be prevented. More likely though, I'd just target someone else, someone less likely to use that tiny morsel of information and actually do something useful with it.

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And of course, the alternative to "wolves took a huge risk for no reason giving town!blade info in the vain hope town!blade had a power worth voiding" is "scum!blade is lying about who the wolf team is to throw town off for even as little as a single extra phase since game could end really really quickly". Heck even if Nash isn't in play, a fake Marin gambit is the kind of thing that could distract Quattro from hunting for wolves that are actually in the game.

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Oh and naturally, if Marin's power is specifically a feedback-replacer and thus voids roles that get feedback...well, the seer is dead. I guess they could void Kathy or Trey? But that's even worse odds.

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Gonna go get breakfast. I already know the first thing I'll dig into when I return.

I mean, this is a very pretty wall of text making quite a lot of assumptions that I largely personally disagree with, but it does seem townish, I think? This doesn't feel wolfish to me. AV already has one iron in the fire with the passive claim hint, going out on a limb like this and taking a massive swing at blade feels like... not wolfy behaviour.

Anyway, all that to say - most town powers are still somewhat beneficial. Why wouldn't Marin use their ability? Is sitting there doing nothing really better than actively trying to disrupt? Sure, it means we need to vig Marin, but we don't know who they are and (now that our pseudo-seer is dead) largely lack the ability to do so. Our way of discovering Marin is likely just by lynching them. So that especially feels like a weak argument. I can see your logic, but it is certainly not universal and makes quite a few assumptions about their behaviour.

[AvatarVecna]

I mean, this is a very pretty wall of text making quite a lot of assumptions that I largely personally disagree with, but it does seem townish, I think? This doesn't feel wolfish to me. AV already has one iron in the fire with the passive claim hint, going out on a limb like this and taking a massive swing at blade feels like... not wolfy behaviour.

Anyway, all that to say - most town powers are still somewhat beneficial. Why wouldn't Marin use their ability? Is sitting there doing nothing really better than actively trying to disrupt? Sure, it means we need to vig Marin, but we don't know who they are and (now that our pseudo-seer is dead) largely lack the ability to do so. Our way of discovering Marin is likely just by lynching them. So that especially feels like a weak argument. I can see your logic, but it is certainly not universal and makes quite a few assumptions about their behaviour.

You're missing the main skewer of the argument. However you think marins power works, however useful you think townie powers are to prevent...why blade instead of literally anyone else? Why give that certainty of "this wolf is definitely in the game" to the player who can do the most with that information?

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Like yeah I personally would target nobody if blade was my 9nly option, but I'd rather target, say, JeenLeen than blade. If for no other reason than JL would now be the one with certain knowledge, and now blade is having to evaluate whether JL is telling the truth or lying to distract Quattro or just lying to confuse town for a few extra moments.

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Also, there's three potential kill powers in play. Two of them are debatable unhelpful for catching Mirin, but the third is basically tailor-made to ruin her day as soon as she targets anyone. We're not exactly helpless to do anything other than lynch the beast if blade is telling the truth.

Three potential town kill powers I should say. Not counting Trey copying a dead killer.

[JeenLeen]

Based on no NK, we know Nash is in play.
If bladescape is honest, we know Marin is in play.
I assume Vector is in play to give wolves safe fakeclaims.

I don't think there'd be 4 wolves in a game this small, especially as Xi doesn't view the "Nash votesteal" as weak (if I read her post in Central right).
So likely 3 wolves, and it's likely Nash, Marin, and Vector.

---

It's early morning, so though I've read/skimmed everything, I haven't comprehended it enough.
In case someone else hasn't stated it, I read Marin's power -- and I think, but can't remember for sure that Xi said this in recruitment or Central -- that Marin's target gets the "no feedback" line regardless of what power they use. So bladescape isn't necessarily claiming a info-gathering power.

In fact, he might be claiming a non-info-gatherer explicitly. The only way to be sure your "no info" is from Marin and not another source* is if you couldn't get that line from your power. Though I wouldn't be surprised if town!bladescape is being overconfident in his claim about Marin to 1) share info with town and 2) misdirect wolves about his power.
*assuming other powers can mess with results. I think that's the case but aren't reading through the powers again yet.

AV: are you just proposing mechanical possibilities to help us understand the game, or also making an argument that bladescape is probably a lying wolf?
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Votewise, I'm comfortable with Allando or flat_footed, so I'll leave my vote where it is.

[Snowblaze]

Mmm. Disagree with AV's logic but don't particularly feel like debating it. Does seem pretty town!AV though I think. (Though it being ages since I played with wolf!AV might mean my paranoia isn't as strong as it should be. Still decent confidence though.)

(Also if bladescape is a wolf it probably means my view of gamestate is badly wrong somewhere and I don't currently feel that's the case. Though, you know, that doesn't mean it isn't.)

Also also mechanical note: I struggle to see a world where Nash isn't in the game considering the whole point of this setup is "wolves don't have a nightkill". And Quattro should always be guessing people are Nash, regardless of whether we know what other Barian roles are in the game.

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Eh, let's see.

AvatarVecna/Batcathat/bladescape/CaoimhinTheCape/JeenLeen/Let'sGetKraken. Probably no more than one wolf in those.

That's six names, plus one me and one dead town, six more left.

Allando/Book Wombat/flat_footed/Illven/Lady Serpentine/Persolus is hence the POE.

Yeah. That feels okay, I think, no reason there can't be 2+ wolves in here.

Ti, Persolus, same question as for Illven: can I get some form of reads list/explanation of your view of the game, please?

Wombat, do you still suspect Caoimhin? Do you have any other reads?

[bladescape]

It being not the optimal play for Marin doesn't mean Marin didn't do it.

It just means AV isn't a wolf.

[AvatarVecna]

Based on no NK, we know Nash is in play.
If bladescape is honest, we know Marin is in play.
I assume Vector is in play to give wolves safe fakeclaims.

I don't think there'd be 4 wolves in a game this small, especially as Xi doesn't view the "Nash votesteal" as weak (if I read her post in Central right).
So likely 3 wolves, and it's likely Nash, Marin, and Vector.

I think 3 wolves would be very weird if one of them is Nash. Cultists always throw off the balance, although admittedly Nash is weaker than standard cultist so maybe that balances things out.

AV: are you just proposing mechanical possibilities to help us understand the game, or also making an argument that bladescape is probably a lying wolf?

I was asked why I was squinting at blade. This is why. I think "town!blade was targeted by Mirin" requires Mirin to be more or less throwing, and I think "scum!blade is pretending Mirin is in play for towncred" has at least three reasons why that might be a good play for wolves.

I'm sure you can imagine how happy I am to spend time and effort typing up a wall answering the question only to be met with two separate people going "I disagree but I'm not gonna bother explaining why".

EDIT: Like wow I sure am glad the possibility blade is a lying wolf trying to manipulate us into chasing ghosts and the possibility that AV is trying to cast shade on blade isn't worth digging into.

[Batcathat]

Not sure what to think about the AV/blade thing. I'm not really paranoid about either of them at the moment (which might be worrying in itself, since they are probably the two people I'm usually the most paranoid about.)

Also, yes, be aware someone's vote probably won't count and a wolf's will probably count twice. So... actually let me run numbers.

We should also keep in mind that there are potential vote powers among town. I feel like something like Kari is a bit like a vig, in that it's great for town if they're accurate but can cause problems if they aren't.

I think 3 wolves would be very weird if one of them is Nash. Cultists always throw off the balance, although admittedly Nash is weaker than standard cultist so maybe that balances things out.

It might also be potentially balanced by town possibly having a cult-like mechanic with the lovers, which on one hand could lead to several townies dying at once but could also basically win the game if they turn a wolf.

[AvatarVecna]

Not sure what to think about the AV/blade thing. I'm not really paranoid about either of them at the moment (which might be worrying in itself, since they are probably the two people I'm usually the most paranoid about.)



We should also keep in mind that there are potential vote powers among town. I feel like something like Kari is a bit like a vig, in that it's great for town if they're accurate but can cause problems if they aren't.



It might also be potentially balanced by town possibly having a cult-like mechanic with the lovers, which on one hand could lead to several townies dying at once but could also basically win the game if they turn a wolf.

The town cult is opt-in only. Astral targets Lover N, and N maybe choose to change their wincon to match Yuma/Astral or not. If a wolf turns, it's likely because they're the last one left and we'd essentially already one (because all but one wolf was dead, and the last one was in the lovers, so they're already dead they just don't know it yet). I guess it's theoretically possible that Yuma lovers a wolf early, and the wolf betrays the rest of wolf team immediately, in which case the game could be essentially over SoD2? But it doesn't look like that happened.

Admittedly, game's got enough moving parts that it's possible a wolf might turn sometime before they're the last one left, but that's hard to predict. Honestly the more interesting possibility to me is if Yuma adds Don to the Lover group.

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The thing I was gonna check after breakfast was to see if the narration would give clues as to who's in the game, but it looks like no? Too many names, and basically all the Barians are named.