Yu-Gi-Oh! ZeXal!

[JeenLeen]

Reread some stuff.

D1 general things to remember:
1) AV said Book Wombat looked wolfy D1 in post 52. Book Wombat was shading Cao in post 51. Book Wombat replies "just going with my gut" in 59.
2) if Allando flips wolf, bladescape likely town. Vote was close at end of D1, and he could have easily moved his vote. Some towncred to Snowblaze, too.

I tried doing an ISO, but got lost in my notes.
So I'm going back to just rereading then quoting the ones I find particularly relevant while doing general thoughts.

General N1 Chatter: I generally frown on nightchat unless it's important legacy intel or to spread misinfo.
Book Wombat's post seems odd, but I think some towncred. A wolf wouldn't want to draw Trey's attention to this facet of the power, while a townie might want to make it clear.
I don't like how much Kraken or Snowblaze talked, but it seems harmless, e.g., not super-likely to help wolves aim. Still, a little suspicious. Same to Allando and Batcathat. Especially if we assume most of them believed a NK was being aimed.

Ending night, overall town lean on Snowblaze and Kraken. Although they suspect each other (or at least Kraken suspects Snowblaze), both seem sincere.
Could definitely see Batcathat as a wolf. But mostly gut pings, nothing solid, and I've got those from him as either alignment in the past.

Kraken
From D1 and night chatter, I'm pretty sure Kraken and Snowblaze are not both wolves.

doing the rest in the next post, as I'm trying to clear my "Reply+" cache

[Allando]

My name is Heather Harrington and my sacred luck magic calls Caedorus to the stand.

The person voting Caedorus everyone is forgetting about.

Allando Is a likely wolf, same reason as Caedorous.

Who was town. Proven town before this post.

Oh, I'd ask if Bladescape cares to share what they allegedly tried last night, but I'd imagine they don't.

Trying to get ppl to claim, perhaps?

Eh, my thought is that the siblings are likely similar. (due to similar nature vs nurture.) Plus something I didn't notice day 1. (Cause work is ****ing awful and keeps leaving me by myself to handle a two person job.) is that Caedorus switched their vote, while Allando keep there's on Cae all day.

Already reacted to this one.
All this looks very Wolfy to me, so Illven is second on my sus list.

[bladescape]

but I'll agree with someone (AV I think?) that it's weird that blade would admit to knowledge that it was a void? Seems to give wolves more info than town.

I'm sure the wolves have absolutely no one they can ask or poke to get further clarity we don't get about their powers. .-.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm sure the wolves have absolutely no one they can ask or poke to get further clarity we don't get about their powers. .-.

Wolves would've already known it was a void, that's true. But they wouldn't have known that you know it's a void.

[JeenLeen]

Kraken cont., and on shutting down AV

I buy Snowblaze's explanation of just not wanting to get into the mess of 'what if's in AV vs bladescape.
Could be a wolf laughing from the sidelines, but... well, I definitely get not wanting to dig into that after digging into it myself.
Also, AV mostly feels town. She could do all that as a wolf, but it has a sincere feel. bladescape isn't cleared in my eyes by any means, but I think honesty is more likely than not.

I actually was about to say that I wanted to see more from you and Persolus, but this is great stuff. Largely NAI at this point since you did have some sus on you and a wolf might do a deep dive like this to secure town status (I know I did in Mysterium), but happy to see activity.

Is it rude of me to ask how you're alive, Blade? Or is that info detrimental if it's revealed now?

Edit: Ah no I am an idiot. I thought that was the dice-destroy power. That tracks. This actually seems townish for me, since this is a bold ****ing claim if someone else got Marin'd. Could be a wolf claiming but feels a little more townish here.

Persolus for pressure.

Seems towny.
Doesn't feel like a wolf trying to fake misunderstanding a wolf power. Also like the perssure on Persolus to encourage activity, though I guess that looks bad if flat_footed and/or Allando are wolves.

This is all valid.... but now bladescape has locked themselves into claiming a targeting power that can provide a result normally (otherwise he would not be certain that it was Marin and not just a power failing). It reduces the space to claim in. I would expect to see it from a wolf under pressure, but without much on blade this feels more townish to me.

I don't think blade really locked himself into this, as I've noted in my "blade could be a lying towny spreading misinfo to wolves" post.
But valid points. it is risky for a wolf to try to look like a lying towny, so why take the extra risk?
On the other hand, if Vector is in play, wolf!bladescape could do this safely if an info-gatherer is not in play.

I mean, this is a very pretty wall of text making quite a lot of assumptions that I largely personally disagree with, but it does seem townish, I think? This doesn't feel wolfish to me. AV already has one iron in the fire with the passive claim hint, going out on a limb like this and taking a massive swing at blade feels like... not wolfy behaviour.

Anyway, all that to say - most town powers are still somewhat beneficial. Why wouldn't Marin use their ability? Is sitting there doing nothing really better than actively trying to disrupt? Sure, it means we need to vig Marin, but we don't know who they are and (now that our pseudo-seer is dead) largely lack the ability to do so. Our way of discovering Marin is likely just by lynching them. So that especially feels like a weak argument. I can see your logic, but it is certainly not universal and makes quite a few assumptions about their behaviour.

Doesn't feel like shutting down AV, but explaining.

To be clear I do think that you've made a good argument for blade possibly lying - I just don't necessarily agree with your logic around the Marin actions. Them not using their power comes at the cost of being otherwise perfectly passive, I just don't think it's as clear-cut as you are making it out to be. I am not sold on Blade being town and your arguments helped with that.

However I do disagree with the bit of quoted logic above - Cultists throw off balance, but also the wolves (seemingly) have no night kill, so I could see a 3-wolf world here.

- - - Updated - - -

Also, since wolves can coordinate - the amount of uncontested suspicion onto Allando almost makes me think he is not a wolf. Same reason I did not switch to Caedorus T1.

Ditto

I am okay with this as an option but we really need to stop killing the brothers day 1 & 2

NAI. Maybe protecting Allando, so kinda NAGL if Allando flips wolf, but mostly NAI. Just metacommentary.

Hm, I don't like this. Not only because it points at me, but because it's very much setting up me as the next lynch if Allando flips town - which a wolf would know would happen. It's not firmly wolfy because it was in response to a question, but it feels hedgy in a way that I dislike.

Aside from you - I'm still suspicious from D1 behaviour - I'd say Caohimn or JeenLeen. Both had suspiciously substantive posts after suspicion might have turned to them. Illven is also giving me gut pings but that might just be residual from last game

NOTE: this quote got garbled a little in quoting due to HTML tags. If I changed anything, not intentional. First line was in response to bladescape, next one to Snowblaze

Sounds fair.
Good cautious read on Cao.
I loathe sounding defensive, but what was "suspicion might have turned to [me]"? I didn't read everything very clearly, but if someone had a question for me I'd be happy to answer.

All in all, Kraken reads town to me. Participating and disagreeing with some others (AV, Snowblaze), but sounds legitimate. Without a mechanical reason or a death flip incriminating him, I'll consider him town.
The only suspicious thing is saying there was/was-going-to-be heat on me when I don't think there was any. A wolf trying to recast D1 or cast shade on someone? Still, seems a bad wolf move as it's a lie to get caught in; I'm inclined to believe I missed someone accusing me more than he's a wolf making that move.

- - - Updated - - -

Townlean: Book Wombat (seems unlikely would do that Night post if wolf), Kraken (described)
Weak townlean: AV, bladescape, Snowblaze (could be wolf, but she's been driving conversation a lot. If Allando flips wolf, strong town)
Weak wolflean: Cao (don't quite buy it, but yeah, some sus there), Illven (basically ditto), Batchat (need to reread still)
Strong wolflean: Allando, flat_footed (though if Allando is town, this goes away)

Snowblaze has written so much I'm not going to try to do an ISO, but she's either town or a wolf driving conversation. If the latter, that's bad since she can influence discussion, but I feel like it's doing some good. And she's had enough real life excuses to quiet down if she was just helping town. Anyway, leaning town on her.

Batcathat later. Cao below.

Cao ISO
Or at least I think I found them all

Hoo boy, it's been a while. I guess I'll throw a Vote: Book Wombat out there cause why not. Is there any new meta I should be aware of that changed since I last played?


Also want to ask about roles...



I saw there was basically a non-answer in the recruitment thread about "Battle Position". Does this mean anything to anyone? The fact that he's called "the Load" makes me think it doesn't do anything but I might just not know something.


And are we worried about the Neutral being in the game at all? Is 14 roles too small for a 3P?




Vote Count
Snowblaze (1): LetsGetKraken,
BatCatHat (1): AvatarVecna,
LetsGetKraken (1): Snowblaze
Allondo (1): Persolus, Caedorus,
Bladescape (1): flat_footed
Caedorus (2): Allondo, Illven
CaoimhinTheCape (1): BookWombat
Illven (1): BatCatHat,
AvatarVecna (1): JeenLeen
BookWombat (1): CaoimhinTheCape
No Vote: Lady Serpentine, Bladescape

Mostly NAI.
I don't like his asking about the power, since it's unlikely to help town ("the Load" should know; rest of us don't need to). But mechanical speculation seems... well, I at least emphasize a lot with wanting to talk mech.

Snow, your most recent votecount looks good to me.



I don't buy the suspicion on Kracken. If anything, that post feels like it's shutting down a possible AV wagon regardless of what was before it so unless Kracken/AV are both Wolves I don't see any case to build around it.

I'm not convinced 100% convinced that Snow is a Wolf based on that Kracken suspicion but I'm fine enough with having pressure on Snow. Actually, I really like Kracken's post directly above this, that's swaying me more than Jeen's post was.




On that note, I'm also eyeing the Caedorus "wagon". Which is basically two random votes plus this post from BatCatHat:



I'm not convinced that a Wolf would see someone else give a hint and then decide to draw attention to themselves and claim the same thing. Maybe I just don't know Caedorus and they would do that but it feels like a weird reason to make someone the lead wagon BatCatHat

---

Side note: Lady Serpentine is listed as a player and I believe hasn't posted yet.



Vote Count
Snowblaze (2): LetsGetKraken, JeenLeen
BatCatHat (2): AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape
LetsGetKraken (1): Snowblaze
Allondo (1): Persolus
Bladescape (1): flat_footed
Caedorus (3): Allondo, Illven, BatCatHat
CaoimhinTheCape (1): BookWombat
BookWombat (1): Bladescape
Persolus (1): Caedorus
No Vote: LadySerpentine

Hard to read this. Voted Batcathat, so I doubt both of them are wolves.

I'll try to put in more time and post more this phase but I'm not gonna be around as much as I was in years past. Did a reads list of everyone for Day 1 at least and looking at the Caedorus wagon is probably the place to start.




Let'sGetKracken is a decently confident Town read for me. Engaging with everyone plenty and just gives off town vibes.



Snowblaze I'm not 100% sold on as Town but I'm sold on her being an active player who is contributing. That's enough for me right now, as the game goes on I know I'll have more to look back at and make a decision on.

JeenLeen doesn't have too many posts but they are comparatively longer and it gives me more of an engaged town vibe than the one line posts of most other players. Wouldn't call it a Town lean but a "don't need to deal with right now" lean.



Avatar Vecna's main talking points in the thread have been about a potential role hint. Want more but it's AV so it's not like this is out of character.

Book Wombat is sort of in the same boat as AV in my mind. There's nothing that I feel is super out of character for Book but there's nothing that's giving town vibes and I don't want to wait forever to figure him out.

bladscape joints this group of "their play makes sense for them, which means I don't have any read yet".



BatCatHat on a reread is looking more like normal but also... I don't like that his post turned Caedorus into an actual wagon with some justification. I have a nagging feeling that it's Wolf motivated to get rid of at least one person who soft claimed a role so it's not a problem later.

Allando isn't looking great now that Caedorus has flipped Town. I can't decide if I like that he posted more than the other people who voted Caedorus or it feels like a Wolf trying to show some sort of activity. Hopefully gonna figure that out today.

flat_footed doesn't look good to me. Only two posts are a random vote and then the last vote on Caedorus. It's a bit obvious for a wolf to be the last vote on a Townie but could have been meant to help protect Allanfo, Snow, or BatCatHat against last minute vote switching (it was about 2 hours before deadline).

Illven feels suspicious to me as well. I don't know if this sort of activity is normal, but a random vote that stuck through the day, commenting a couple times on AV, and then a post basically saying they're happy with their vote.



Persolus Is in the "need more info" zone too but gets a little less leeway than Lady Serpentine since he was around at the beginning of the Day at least.

Lady Serpentine hasn't posted enough for me to get a definite read on.



Copying over the End of Day 1 votecount to have it somewhere.

Caedorus 4: Allando, Illven, Batcathat, flat_footed
Allando 3: Persolus, bladescape, Snowblaze
Snowblaze 2: Let'sGetKraken, JeenLeen
Batcathat 3: AvatarVecna, CaoimhinTheCape, Caedorus
Let'sGetKraken 1: Lady Serpentine
CaoimhinTheCape 1: Book Wombat

I have similar feelings to most of what he says. Hard to see if my bias is making me townread him or not. Towny vibes, but as Kraken noted, could be a wolf trying to look more towny.

Just enough time for a quick update but AV/Jeen have jumped up in my reads to join Kracken/Snow as "trust enough to not worry about until we get a better feel for everyone else".

Blade's claim that Marin is in the game is fine but I'll agree with someone (AV I think?) that it's weird that blade would admit to knowledge that it was a void? Seems to give wolves more info than town.



One of Persolus/Lady Serpentine/Book Wombat as an inactive Wolf. My pick from that group would probably be Persolus - it feels enough to be a Wolf who is genuinely busy but doesn't want to inactive/be seen as inactive. Also...



This explanation for what happened feels weird to me too. Like, this is after a couple people talked about there being no night kills this game. But he doesn't address that and instead calls out to have a role reveal themselves?

---

If anyone wants to have Votecounts for this Day phase someone else will have to take over the job. I might have time to catch up when I get home/tomorrow morning early but I can't guarantee it.

Feels towny, but kinda neutral.

Anyway, no strong read on Cao. I get why, and am kinda persuaded by, some suspicion on him. But others (Illven, flat_footed, Allando) look worse.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I loathe sounding defensive, but what was "suspicion might have turned to [me]"? I didn't read everything very clearly, but if someone had a question for me I'd be happy to answer.

All in all, Kraken reads town to me. Participating and disagreeing with some others (AV, Snowblaze), but sounds legitimate. Without a mechanical reason or a death flip incriminating him, I'll consider him town.
The only suspicious thing is saying there was/was-going-to-be heat on me when I don't think there was any. A wolf trying to recast D1 or cast shade on someone? Still, seems a bad wolf move as it's a lie to get caught in; I'm inclined to believe I missed someone accusing me more than he's a wolf making that move.

What comfortable pockets!

I meant more that you weren't active much D1 and we were starting to really put pressure on inactive players. Your burst of activity - which may be genuine - is something that can sometimes be a wolf overcompensating for lying low the first day.

Edit: That said, you've been significantly more active to the point at which even if that behaviour still gives me a little bit of suspicious pings, I'm putting you down my sus list.

[JeenLeen]

What comfortable pockets!

I meant more that you weren't active much D1 and we were starting to really put pressure on inactive players. Your burst of activity - which may be genuine - is something that can sometimes be a wolf overcompensating for lying low the first day.

That's fair. And I appreciate the answer; I can see why that'd seem suspicious.

Batcathat analysis/reread

D1 vote on Illven. NAI.
Some banter with AV after AV's vote and claim banter.

Yeah, wagons sounds good and I don't mind switching my vote, but I'm not sure where. Allando or Caedorus seems like the obvious choice, but aside from Caedorus' maybe-hint there's not a lot to go on. I guess I could see a wolfy Caedorus seeing a towny AV vaugly hint something and figure it would be smart to do the same thing, but I don't know. (So yes, I'm still the hedgiest one in all the land).

- - - Updated - - -

What the hell, it's better than a placeholder/revenge vote. Caedorus.

Sure, I'm not convinced either, but it's D1 so suspecting someone for voting someone else for less than ironclad reasons seems strange (and I kinda want to suspect you over it, but that would be wildly hypocritical, wouldn't it? )

That said, I did kinda like Caedorus reaction to the votes, but I haven't decided whether that means I think he's less wolfy or just a smart wolf.

Yeah, I know the feeling well (though I'm going back and forth on whether or not you being one the wagons is bad. I was kind of hoping you'd have some really suspicious reaction to people voting you, but you went the other way with it). I feel okay with my vote, but that's mostly just because none of the options seem better.

Unless I missed a post with a vote, he stayed on the Caedorus wagon once there, then basically hedged that he wasn't sure or not but seemed as good as any other.
That... is believable, but looks bad in light of the death flip.
I guess I don't have anything more on flat_footed than batcathat. Just Batcathat has been talking more, so more room to look hedgey.

Night

"Reasonably confident" is probably overselling it (because there's not a lot to go on and also I'm me), but the people I'm the least paranoid about is probably AV and to a lesser degree you.

AV mostly for the sort-of-claim. Unlike Caedorus' very vague comment (though if it was the poem, I admit it was pretty clever), AV's been very specific about where the clues are, even if we don't know what they mean, which seems like it would be unnecessarily limiting for a wolf (especially since there was no more than the usual suspicions against AV at the time). Of course, it's AV so it's certainly not impossible for it to be part of some long wolf con. (I also have a probably out there theory on what AV might have been trying to accomplish, which might suggest someone's wolfy if true).

My read on you is mostly gut. I was initially quite suspicious of you (mostly due to a combination of arguments made by others and something feeling kinda off) but your reaction to being wagon'd and later posts in general felt very towny. There was... franticness(?) that felt genuine. I also think you probably wouldn't have defended Caedorus as much if you were a wolf (then again, it wasn't enough, so maybe it was just the exactly right amount from a wolf).

On the wolf side of things my reads are even less confident. My gut is vary of Cao, but I think I'm at least partially doing what I said I wouldn't and suspect him for the same reason he supposedly suspected me.

If flat's a wolf, I suspect Allando is as well. I don't think a wolf would make that vote (knowing they'd look bad after the lynch) if it wasn't to save a buddy.

My biggest issue with this is just that he's posting it at night.
I guess we did believe there'd be a NK -- or at least if he's town, he believed that based on how i read his early D2 posts -- so I can see wanting to answer in case you fear being NKed. Or to make the wolves think you'll have heat, so they don't NK you.
Anyway, hard to analysis since it's Night, but feels bad to be overall since it's during Night.

Day 2

Skipping posts about NK and the do-ISO post.

Not sure whether Allando and flat turning on each other makes me trust them more or less. I could see two wolves sensing which way the wind was blowing and deciding to bus each other, hoping the survivor would look towny.

NAI.
Makes me pretty sure the wolf team isn't Allando, flat, and Batcathat, since I think (if flat and Allando are wolves) the wolves wouldn't want folk to consider suspecting both of them.

Let's go with Allando for now to have more than one wagon (though when we get close to EoD it might be a good idea to make sure someone is in a solid lead, since vote manipulation is likely).


Maybe it'll be like whatever game it was when you were a wolf and blade was (at least publicly) townreading you to such an unreasonable degree that my main reason for townreading blade was that no wolf would be that blatantly supporting of a buddy.

Cred to Batcathat if Allando flips.
But, just as we could suspect flat and Allando of turning on each others, it's possible the wolves are bussing Allando this Day to gain towncred.

Not sure what to think about the AV/blade thing. I'm not really paranoid about either of them at the moment (which might be worrying in itself, since they are probably the two people I'm usually the most paranoid about.)



We should also keep in mind that there are potential vote powers among town. I feel like something like Kari is a bit like a vig, in that it's great for town if they're accurate but can cause problems if they aren't.



It might also be potentially balanced by town possibly having a cult-like mechanic with the lovers, which on one hand could lead to several townies dying at once but could also basically win the game if they turn a wolf.

Mostly mech. Seems sincere. NAI.

As I suggested earlier, I think one possibility is flat and Allando both being wolves and having decided that one of them might have to be sacrificed for the other to look better, which would explain the lack of push back (along with it still being quite far from EoD).

Restating earlier position.

Heh. For what it's worth, I think flat would be a better lynch than Allando (since if flat's a wolf, that makes me even more suspicious of Allando, but I'm not sure the opposite is true).

No, but maybe I phrased something weirdly? Anyhow, my reasoning (and feel free to check it for holes) is that if flat’s a wolf, voting Caedorus when he did is a strange move (since he might get heat after Caed flips) unless it’s to save a wolf buddy. So if Allando flips wolf, flat might still just be a townie who made the wrong choice, but if flat flips wolf, Allando seems like a likely buddy.

Yeah, I'm not really sure of your reasoning either, so probably some mismatched logic. My thought is that there are basically four outcomes:

• Allando flips town: Doesn't really say much about flat in either direction. (Maybe some slight town points since a wolf might have voted outside of the wagons if they were t/t?)
• Allando flips wolf: Might make flat look a little more wolfy, but he could still easily be a townie who made a poor choice.
• flat flips town: Doesn't really tell us much about Allando.
• flat flips wolf: Allando looks very wolfy, since it's the best explanation for flat's vote.

But as long as we agree that both of them look suspicious, I suppose we can argue over the details later.

I would say Cao, Illven and Ti. But it's basically all gut. If I have the time and energy, I should probably reread the thread assuming flat and Allando are town (and knowing Caedorus is) and see if I can think of anything.

Posts clarifying his stance.
I think I follow his logic. I'll add that if Allando flips wolf and flat flips town, Batcathat looks suspicious.
Wolf!BCH is considering wolves bussing each other, perhaps because he decided to bus Allando since Allando had so much heat.
If doing that, why not set up flat as the lynch target after Allando? That buys the wolves time.

---

So, yeah, opinion unchanged on Batcathat. Looks a little suspicious, but got bigger fish to fry first.

[Book Wombat]

General N1 Chatter: I generally frown on nightchat unless it's important legacy intel or to spread misinfo.
Book Wombat's post seems odd, but I think some towncred. A wolf wouldn't want to draw Trey's attention to this facet of the power, while a townie might want to make it clear.

Oh, didn't even think about Trey. I was just annoyed at Caedorus saying his power is not useful for Town.

Will look through thread again, see if anything is oddish.

[Snowblaze]

An indefinite amount of time has elapsed. Glad to see stuff is still happening without me!

Jeen gets significant town points for their analysis imo. Though can you spoiler ISOs in future please?

I will be annoyed if I was right on Kraken D1 and then backed off it. But also he said something that made me think a theory I had was wrong, so I'm just going to say this now: Kraken, why are you not pushing or voting for me?

Illven's response to my question is decent-ish though maybe part of the reason I don't want to push there is because I'd feel terrible about getting her killed regardless of her alignment atp. Should go reread town!Illven games.

Still need Ti and Persolus to do stuff.

Maybe wolves are actually in Allando/flat but that just feels too easy and consensus-y and why isn't there any kind of resistance to it?

[Let'sGetKraken]

An indefinite amount of time has elapsed. Glad to see stuff is still happening without me!

Jeen gets significant town points for their analysis imo. Though can you spoiler ISOs in future please?

I will be annoyed if I was right on Kraken D1 and then backed off it. But also he said something that made me think a theory I had was wrong, so I'm just going to say this now: Kraken, why are you not pushing or voting for me?

Illven's response to my question is decent-ish though maybe part of the reason I don't want to push there is because I'd feel terrible about getting her killed regardless of her alignment atp. Should go reread town!Illven games.

Still need Ti and Persolus to do stuff.

Maybe wolves are actually in Allando/flat but that just feels too easy and consensus-y and why isn't there any kind of resistance to it?

Two reasons:

1) I tend not to like voting off players that are either too active or too inactive. One reduces analysis and the other provides little information.
2) While I am still wolfreading you - this question does not help your case, incidentally - I am not confident enough in that to push hard to vote you off, especially since there seems to be little appetite otherwise for voting you. If you were a frontrunner for a wagon, I would (and will) vote for you in the absence of anything more damning from someone else.

I'm still iffy on Jeen. I want more from Cao too as well as Ti and Persolus, yes.

[JeenLeen]

Oh, didn't even think about Trey. I was just annoyed at Caedorus saying his power is not useful for Town.

Will look through thread again, see if anything is oddish.

Your posts WIFOM me so much.

Towncred to BW for eliminating the only reason I was giving him towncred?
Since of course a wolf wouldn't do that... unless they would do it since it looks so unwolfy and thus towny.
Feels hypocritical not to bounce you down to neutral read from town read, but I guess still townlean overall.

Though can you spoiler ISOs in future please?

Sure.
I did feel bad that the forum combined two of my very long posts into one super-long post. I didn't think nobody would post during the time it took to write up the second one.

- - - Updated - - -

I'm going to try a vote total to get a better sense of participation and votes.
I feel like I must've missed something, since a lot of non-voters and no vote changes despite a lot of discussion. But here goes. Just take it with a grain of salt if I missed something.

Vote totals:
Allando: Snowblaze, Batcathat, Illven
flat_footed: JeenLeen, Allando,
Persolus: LetsGetKraken,
LetsGetKraken: bladescape

Posted but no vote: AV, Cao, BW, flat_footed (really? No self-defense vote even, though he did explain why he didn't vote Allando)
Do we know if, in the event of tie, it's RNG or first person to reach it?

[Snowblaze]

Brief skim through the OP didn't say, so @Xihirli what are the tie rules?

Mmm, that's... kind of fair actually, Kraken, but also.

...gah. I don't know.

I can think of plenty of reasons to wolfread Kraken but do I actually believe in them? It's just... my gut is stubbornly silent on him now.

Spoiler: Kraken wolfcase I don't know if I believe in

Show

So, yeah. Town!Kraken, according to my late D1/early N1 reads, is just confbiased and dealing with a natural tendency to scumread my playstyle.

Two problems I have: a) late D1, after I start actually doing stuff, Kraken comes back and just says "yeah, I like Snow best of the current wagons" without even remarking on the stuff I did.

And if you're town and your top suspect produces a large amount of content, including pivoting away from their suspicion of you to some extent, what do you do? Do you think "actually, maybe she's town now she's actually putting work in"? Do you dissect why you think her content is wolfy?

Or do you just pretend it doesn't exist and go on voting her?

(I kind of hate this read because it's a "this progression makes no sense coming from town" read and those reads are bad reads and usually when I make them the person involved ends up actually being town.)

And b) if you're town and confbiased to the extent that you're just seeing everything your suspect does as wolfy N1, do you then come into D2 not even mentioning her or pushing her in any way?

I mean yes, he did have a decent explanation for the latter but also I'd expect just "I still think Snowblaze is a wolf, but I'm not going to push that because..."

I think my problem with this case is that my reasons here are reasons I think are in general not ones you should be wolfreading someone for. But maybe in this specific instance they're valid? I don't know.

General request for people not to vote Kraken because they like/agree with that case when even I don't. If you think he's a wolf, vote him, but don't base it on this.

Going to reread and do RL stuff and refresh thread occasionally and turn this over in my mind for a few hours. Maybe tomorrow I will have reached some level of clarity.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Brief skim through the OP didn't say, so @Xihirli what are the tie rules?

Mmm, that's... kind of fair actually, Kraken, but also.

...gah. I don't know.

I can think of plenty of reasons to wolfread Kraken but do I actually believe in them? It's just... my gut is stubbornly silent on him now.

Spoiler: Kraken wolfcase I don't know if I believe in

Show

So, yeah. Town!Kraken, according to my late D1/early N1 reads, is just confbiased and dealing with a natural tendency to scumread my playstyle.

Two problems I have: a) late D1, after I start actually doing stuff, Kraken comes back and just says "yeah, I like Snow best of the current wagons" without even remarking on the stuff I did.

And if you're town and your top suspect produces a large amount of content, including pivoting away from their suspicion of you to some extent, what do you do? Do you think "actually, maybe she's town now she's actually putting work in"? Do you dissect why you think her content is wolfy?

Or do you just pretend it doesn't exist and go on voting her?

(I kind of hate this read because it's a "this progression makes no sense coming from town" read and those reads are bad reads and usually when I make them the person involved ends up actually being town.)

And b) if you're town and confbiased to the extent that you're just seeing everything your suspect does as wolfy N1, do you then come into D2 not even mentioning her or pushing her in any way?

I mean yes, he did have a decent explanation for the latter but also I'd expect just "I still think Snowblaze is a wolf, but I'm not going to push that because..."

I think my problem with this case is that my reasons here are reasons I think are in general not ones you should be wolfreading someone for. But maybe in this specific instance they're valid? I don't know.

General request for people not to vote Kraken because they like/agree with that case when even I don't. If you think he's a wolf, vote him, but don't base it on this.

Going to reread and do RL stuff and refresh thread occasionally and turn this over in my mind for a few hours. Maybe tomorrow I will have reached some level of clarity.

See this is just so blatantly wolfy that it loops back around to being towncred, honestly? "Oh no look at this analysis BUT DON'T LISTEN TO IT, BUT ALSO STILL VOTE KRAKEN IF YOU WANT". This does feel like Snow spiralling more than a wolf WIFOMing (though you never know, we picked Snow to represent us for a reason).

[Lady Serpentine]

Argh.

My brain is mush at the moment. I'm going to try and read back through, but. Do we know the tie rules?

[Snowblaze]

See this is just so blatantly wolfy that it loops back around to being towncred, honestly? "Oh no look at this analysis BUT DON'T LISTEN TO IT, BUT ALSO STILL VOTE KRAKEN IF YOU WANT". This does feel like Snow spiralling more than a wolf WIFOMing (though you never know, we picked Snow to represent us for a reason).

I am amused. I guess "Snow is TWTBAW" is progress from "Snow is a wolf", right?

(Too Wolfy To Be A Wolf.)

Argh.

My brain is mush at the moment. I'm going to try and read back through, but. Do we know the tie rules?

I don't believe so, I just asked Xihirli. Looking forward to your thoughts when you've caught up!

Also I am falling asleep at my keyboard so going to disappear until tomorrow, when I will be back with hopefully more coherent and confident thoughts.

[Allando]

We're going to be traveling a lot tomorrow so I'll not be online a lot. I'll try to be around for EOD but chances are very slim. For now, my vote sticks with Flat, other wolfish reads definitely Illven and Persolus a little too.

[Xihirli]

Brief skim through the OP didn't say, so @Xihirli what are the tie rules?

In the game of Yu-Gi-Oh!, ties in battle are determined based on the battle positions of the monsters in the battle. If both are in attack mode, both are destroyed. If one is in defense mode, neither are.

[Illven]

Quick question since I'm at work. What mode do we start in? Face down defense till we openly claim?

[JeenLeen]

In the game of Yu-Gi-Oh!, ties in battle are determined based on the battle positions of the monsters in the battle. If both are in attack mode, both are destroyed. If one is in defense mode, neither are.

Quick question since I'm at work. What mode do we start in? Face down defense till we openly claim?

There is a chance Xi is not answering our question at all and merely stating the rules of the card game.
But I reckon it's a good clue to how ties work.

We destroy someone in battle via voting them. So... maybe we're in attack position if we vote? If we don't, we're in defense position?

If vote manipulation powers weren't in play, we could test this by having a tie between Allando and flat_footed. Allando voted; flat_footed didn't. But Nash means that even if the Town agreed not to fiddle with the results, we can't test it.

And even if could, that doesn't mean we should. If neither die, we'd basically be in the same situation D3 as we were today. (Yes, some info-gathering could occur that might shed significant light, and delaying lets more join the Lovers, but it also gives Nash another night to votesteal. And, besides, we can't force a tie to test it anyway.)

[Snowblaze]

So that's what the point of the Load is.

Okay. We should probably try and avoid having ties, then. Though given the existence of vote manipulators who won't be inclined to cooperate with that it will be difficult.

In other news, you will be unsurprised to learn I have not reached more coherent or confident thoughts, other than a mild townlean on Persolus for possibly-bad reasons (also my gut wants to do that with Ti as well but. Brain cannot justify it.)

Allando/flat_footed/maybe Kraken/maybe Illven/maybe Ti...

Let me juggle those names around for a while and see if I can find pairings or unpairings among them.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: flat_footed ISO

Show

Anyone who's late for registration will be disqualified. Mokuba, make sure Bladescape's late.

Random vote, NAI.

Ok, I'll risk tilting the scales, gut feeling that this post is off. Pointing to something that doesn't make sense and then editing in your realization of why it happened, or a second post correcting yourself, is something I would have expected to see. Caedorus still posting this feels like he is trying to fake figuring things out.

Yeah, this. I thought even before the flip it looked kind of... reachy, I guess? Forcing yourself to have a wolfread you don't really believe in.

I do kind of think the thing BCH didn't actually say was right, though: does a wolf do this when there's TvT wagons, knowing that they'll look suspicious for making the "wrong choice"?

There's not much further to look into for my vote than what I already said, it was the only thing that stood out to me between Allando and Caedorus. I made a choice to break the tie, turns out it was the wrong one assuming we weren't TvT. I don't have much time now, working graveyard yesterday and today. I'll be back in ~12 hours.

Voting Allando here crossed my mind to try and prove I'm not protecting them. Best case scenario they flip wolf and then I look wolfy, worst case they are town and we lose another member. In any case, no vote from me yet.

Eh. I can kind of see this I guess? Gut says "yes, I was wrong, that's all there is to it" is a towny response to pressure, a wolf would be more likely to overjustify.

I disagree fundamentally with voting people to prove you're not protecting them but I... don't think the opinion is actually AI. Not actually doing it however is... eh, if this is a bluff from partnered-with-Allando!flat then it's easily called. But then again by Allando's play today if they are partners they're already bussing.

And... I've been trying really hard not to make this read but.

Spoiler: Do not base anything on this

Show

It has been significantly over twelve hours, and flat in particular has been known to strategically lurk as a wolf.

But yeah, this is something I hate reading into, he could just be genuinely busy.

Huh. I... do not wolfread flat as much as I was expecting going into this. I can't justify removing him from POE based on this but wouldn't be my first choice to vote today.

Also @flat_footed if you're reading: hi! Can you please vote for someone, and also give thoughts on whoever you have thoughts on? Thanks!

Also also questions I want to explore myself and think other people should explore too: let's consider three worlds.

1. Allando and flat are both wolves.
2. Allando is a wolf, flat is town.
3. Allando is town, flat is a wolf.

a) which of these worlds do you think is most likely? Are there any you'd rule out? Why/why not?
b) what do you think wolves' strategy is in each world? Who outside Allando/flat looks to be following that strategy iyo?
c) how probable do you think it is that we're not living in any of those worlds, and they're both town?
(Also d) if they are both town who are the wolves, but I already asked that.)

- - - Updated - - -

Maybe wolves just have low gamestate influence rn and that's why the lack of resistance to current wagons is making me paranoid.

Maybe there are deepwolves and I'm just telling myself that because I don't want to actually consider worlds where I'm misclearing someone.

Maybe I should be doing stuff that isn't this game.

- - - Updated - - -

Also this might be a bad read but. Given town!Kraken, and in particular also wolf!Allando, why didn't wolves vote Kraken D1?

Because it's an easy thing to say "oh, Snowblaze has a decent case, let's vote Kraken" and then when Kraken flips town "Snowblaze is supposed to be good at this game, why was she wrong if she's town? Let's kill her."

Instead we get Ti as the only non-me Kraken vote, for reasons not associated with my case and after I'd partially walked it back.

Did wolves see town!Kraken and presumably town!Jeen pushing back against the case and decide it was too risky to get involved? Were they just not around to get involved? Did they pick up on the Caedorus softs and decide he was a better mislynch?

All possible. But still. There's the obvious explanation, which could be more likely.

[flat_footed]

So that's what the point of the Load is.

Okay. We should probably try and avoid having ties, then. Though given the existence of vote manipulators who won't be inclined to cooperate with that it will be difficult.

In other news, you will be unsurprised to learn I have not reached more coherent or confident thoughts, other than a mild townlean on Persolus for possibly-bad reasons (also my gut wants to do that with Ti as well but. Brain cannot justify it.)

Allando/flat_footed/maybe Kraken/maybe Illven/maybe Ti...

Let me juggle those names around for a while and see if I can find pairings or unpairings among them.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: flat_footed ISO

Show

Random vote, NAI.


Yeah, this. I thought even before the flip it looked kind of... reachy, I guess? Forcing yourself to have a wolfread you don't really believe in.

I do kind of think the thing BCH didn't actually say was right, though: does a wolf do this when there's TvT wagons, knowing that they'll look suspicious for making the "wrong choice"?


Eh. I can kind of see this I guess? Gut says "yes, I was wrong, that's all there is to it" is a towny response to pressure, a wolf would be more likely to overjustify.

I disagree fundamentally with voting people to prove you're not protecting them but I... don't think the opinion is actually AI. Not actually doing it however is... eh, if this is a bluff from partnered-with-Allando!flat then it's easily called. But then again by Allando's play today if they are partners they're already bussing.

And... I've been trying really hard not to make this read but.

Spoiler: Do not base anything on this

Show

It has been significantly over twelve hours, and flat in particular has been known to strategically lurk as a wolf.

But yeah, this is something I hate reading into, he could just be genuinely busy.

Huh. I... do not wolfread flat as much as I was expecting going into this. I can't justify removing him from POE based on this but wouldn't be my first choice to vote today.

Also @flat_footed if you're reading: hi! Can you please vote for someone, and also give thoughts on whoever you have thoughts on? Thanks!

Also also questions I want to explore myself and think other people should explore too: let's consider three worlds.

1. Allando and flat are both wolves.
2. Allando is a wolf, flat is town.
3. Allando is town, flat is a wolf.

a) which of these worlds do you think is most likely? Are there any you'd rule out? Why/why not?
b) what do you think wolves' strategy is in each world? Who outside Allando/flat looks to be following that strategy iyo?
c) how probable do you think it is that we're not living in any of those worlds, and they're both town?
(Also d) if they are both town who are the wolves, but I already asked that.)

- - - Updated - - -

Maybe wolves just have low gamestate influence rn and that's why the lack of resistance to current wagons is making me paranoid.

Maybe there are deepwolves and I'm just telling myself that because I don't want to actually consider worlds where I'm misclearing someone.

Maybe I should be doing stuff that isn't this game.

- - - Updated - - -

Also this might be a bad read but. Given town!Kraken, and in particular also wolf!Allando, why didn't wolves vote Kraken D1?

Because it's an easy thing to say "oh, Snowblaze has a decent case, let's vote Kraken" and then when Kraken flips town "Snowblaze is supposed to be good at this game, why was she wrong if she's town? Let's kill her."

Instead we get Ti as the only non-me Kraken vote, for reasons not associated with my case and after I'd partially walked it back.

Did wolves see town!Kraken and presumably town!Jeen pushing back against the case and decide it was too risky to get involved? Were they just not around to get involved? Did they pick up on the Caedorus softs and decide he was a better mislynch?

All possible. But still. There's the obvious explanation, which could be more likely.

I didn't have the time I thought I would to post last night like I promised. Crashed hard when I got home and had a list to complete when I woke up. I've tried to catch parts of the thread during the day but didn't have time to sit down and force a post, especially on mobile. I should be asleep now, but skimmed the final bits now that I'm at my pc.

I don't have energy for WIFOM atm, so here's a Kraken for now.

[Snowblaze]

I didn't have the time I thought I would to post last night like I promised. Crashed hard when I got home and had a list to complete when I woke up. I've tried to catch parts of the thread during the day but didn't have time to sit down and force a post, especially on mobile. I should be asleep now, but skimmed the final bits now that I'm at my pc.

I don't have energy for WIFOM atm, so here's a Kraken for now.

Fair, I guess.

Am I right in thinking the Kraken vote is because of stuff from my quote?

Thoughts on Allando?

(Also I did not realise just how long a wall I produced until you quoted it. Apologies to my fellow phoneposters for inflicting that on you.)

...gah, part of me wants to just call flat town and actually vote Kraken but also I don't know if that's just the part of me that's contrarian and wants to change gamestate for its own sake because it's felt too static.

[Batcathat]

Assuming a wolfy Allando and a towny Kraken, I'm not sure the wolves would want to vote the later D1. They already had a good mislynch set up and splitting the vote might make it more likely for Allando to get lynched. Still, worth keeping in mind, I suppose.

Snow suggesting she's suspecting Kraken again and flat immediately voting for him doesn't exactly make me suspect flat less.

The rest of Snow's questions will have to wait until I've had more time to think, but they do seem worth looking into.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: Allando ISO, Part One

Show

Xihirli, who is obviously the deity.

Random vote. For the narrator. Don't think anyone really picked up on it at the time. Trying to read into this is too WIFOMy imo, so I will call it NAI.

Oh, my brother,
Must we bother
To wait 'till end of day
To shoo Caedorus away?
I can rhyme as well, you know.

OMGUSing his brother, probably NAI?

AV's role is not going to be outed until they want it to be. Also, distressing that Caedorus, the one usually so against massclaiming, is already dropping hints. Maybe them saying they have dropped a hint is their clue and they're the two lovers? Makes no sense to claim that since if one of them dies the other dies as well, so there's no oppertunity for "I'm an innocent townie and my mason just died" stuff.
So, AV, Caedorus, are you trying a very bold wolf play but had you accidentally missed that in the lovers' role description? Or what's going on?

Ah, yes. This thing again. I still haven't quite worked out what to make of it; if you forced me I'd go with mildly wolfy but I'm not sure.

My half-joking vote on Caedorus seems to have become a wagon. Are we all fine eliminating him?
I need to go check for people's reasoning behind other votes.

In a vacuum this is towny. In context of "Allando seems to have a reasonably confident wolfread on Caedorus and also he never actually did look for other reasoning iirc" it's wolfy.

"I wasn't advertising roleclaiming, I was only almost doing so myself"

Has Serpentine made a post yet? Don't know.

Feels vaguely shady/uncharitable interpretation I think?

I was mainly seeing how they'd react. I had (and have still) very few wolfleans. Caedorus is my best one, currently, because their behaviour seems contradictory to me.

Mmm. Did I ask what he made of the reactions at the time? If I did he didn't answer, which means this could be a cop-out to some extent. Also I don't know why but "their behaviour seems contradictory to me" is giving me gut pings.

Caedorus was trying so hard to be sus enough to not get nk'ed he got eliminated. Rip.

That can happen, yes (see: Xumtiil, Afterlife 3, though that was more because I didn't think to suspect the narrator).

But anyway I... eh. I don't think Caedorus was deliberately trying to be suspicious, and I can see worlds where this is trying to justify the vote with "it was totally his fault, not mine!"

Hm, OK. I definitely suspect all the people voting Caedorus a little - yes, I know.
I'd have to go see who looks the most pockety, though.
Flat footed... you jumped on the wagon last second to avoid a tie. However, since Caedorus reached 3 votes first, there was no need, so a cunning wolf wouldn't have done that, unless again they have knowledge of vote manipulations, and why would the wolves do that, seeing as I was the other wagon? Did they somehow know Caedorus was a scry, and thus a waay better elimination than me? Or is this all some cunning wolf plan to sus me?
Aaaaaah my brains.
Other reads: Snowblaze, null. You started off slightly wolfy, but after that you've been solvy, but then again, as Caedorus said, that is more NAI for you than anything else.
The problem I'm having is I have too many people on the maybe wolf list and too few anywhere else. I agree with you that we need more info, I'm hoping the nk will clarify some.

I kind of like the analysis of the flat vote; feels genuinely confused/paranoid. Not... entirely sure why I'm the only one that gets called out for a null read.

Also if he has more suspects why didn't he talk about that at some point.

Also also "we need more info" is sometimes something wolves hide behind.

Caedorus was being suspicious by not acting like I'm used to. All previous games he was extremely against claiming in general. I still have no clue why he decided to hint being the seer - it was probably why he got eliminated.
For now, Flat_Footed. You're the most suspicious vote change IMO.

- - - Updated - - -

Do they have one, do they have to use it? My first thought was the latter.

Mmm, okay, given the context and the explanation this is Fine(TM). I'm not sure I like just voting flat instead of properly digging into the Caedorus votes but... shrug

I originally didn't get it, then I realised what could've happened. I'm like 90% sure flat is a wolf who got the hint and really wanted him gone.
All this doesn't hold up if Marin is in play though, because then they could've just targeted Caedorus. Then again, easier to get rid of him than to have to block him every day.

There are a lot of assumptions here... hm. I hope this isn't going to happen.

- - - Updated - - -
I never changed my vote from Caedorus because he was IMO the most sus. Also I wasn't rlly around for EOD.
And yes, we are similar, in that we both vote each other d1. But saying we're going to always act similarly depending on our alignment is wrong: our roles are different, for one, and we are still separate people.

I'm not sure I believe the confidence in wolf!flat here.

Though yes, we should all try to be more aware that the brothers are separate people.

Pending the second part, which will come later because I've already invested too much of my morning in this game, I wouldn't be surprised if he flipped wolf.

Also I realised that an Allando/flat wolfteam makes a lot more sense if Allando is exactly Nash, since Nash dying D1 before he has a chance to attach material is basically game-losing for wolves.

- - - Updated - - -

Assuming a wolfy Allando and a towny Kraken, I'm not sure the wolves would want to vote the later D1. They already had a good mislynch set up and splitting the vote might make it more likely for Allando to get lynched. Still, worth keeping in mind, I suppose.

Snow suggesting she's suspecting Kraken again and flat immediately voting for him doesn't exactly make me suspect flat less.

The rest of Snow's questions will have to wait until I've had more time to think, but they do seem worth looking into.

Yeah, point, especially in light of the idea I just had about Allando. Should recheck to see exactly how wagons developed.

The flat thing could be a point but there is no world in which I vote him over Allando given that idea.

[Batcathat]

Okay, so I couldn't actually wait that long. Might add to my answers after properly waking up.

1. Allando and flat are both wolves.
2. Allando is a wolf, flat is town.
3. Allando is town, flat is a wolf.

a) which of these worlds do you think is most likely? Are there any you'd rule out? Why/why not?
b) what do you think wolves' strategy is in each world? Who outside Allando/flat looks to be following that strategy iyo?
c) how probable do you think it is that we're not living in any of those worlds, and they're both town?
(Also d) if they are both town who are the wolves, but I already asked that.)

a) I wouldn't rule out any of the worlds, but I feel like number 3 is probably the least likely (since it has flat setting himself up to take the heat for Caedorus' lynch for basically no reason). I want to say number 1 is the most likely, but that might just be tunneling at this point. I think the two of them accusing each other at the start of D2 kind of supports them being w/w, as a townie might've been looking for more alternate explanations (but that might just be me assuming everyone's as hedgy as I am).
b) I've already suggested their strategy in 1, bus each other and hope the survivor looks good from it. In the other worlds, I'm not so sure beyond the obvious "get the other person lynched". If flat's a wolf, I suppose his vote for Kraken could be either avoiding contributing to a mislynch (if Allando's town) or seeing a chance to not having to bus a wolf buddy. Not sure who else could be involved at this point.
c) It's possible, but I wouldn't think it's that likely (though again, I might just be tunneling).

[Let'sGetKraken]

So that's what the point of the Load is.

Okay. We should probably try and avoid having ties, then. Though given the existence of vote manipulators who won't be inclined to cooperate with that it will be difficult.

In other news, you will be unsurprised to learn I have not reached more coherent or confident thoughts, other than a mild townlean on Persolus for possibly-bad reasons (also my gut wants to do that with Ti as well but. Brain cannot justify it.)

Allando/flat_footed/maybe Kraken/maybe Illven/maybe Ti...

Let me juggle those names around for a while and see if I can find pairings or unpairings among them.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: flat_footed ISO

Show

Random vote, NAI.


Yeah, this. I thought even before the flip it looked kind of... reachy, I guess? Forcing yourself to have a wolfread you don't really believe in.

I do kind of think the thing BCH didn't actually say was right, though: does a wolf do this when there's TvT wagons, knowing that they'll look suspicious for making the "wrong choice"?


Eh. I can kind of see this I guess? Gut says "yes, I was wrong, that's all there is to it" is a towny response to pressure, a wolf would be more likely to overjustify.

I disagree fundamentally with voting people to prove you're not protecting them but I... don't think the opinion is actually AI. Not actually doing it however is... eh, if this is a bluff from partnered-with-Allando!flat then it's easily called. But then again by Allando's play today if they are partners they're already bussing.

And... I've been trying really hard not to make this read but.

Spoiler: Do not base anything on this

Show

It has been significantly over twelve hours, and flat in particular has been known to strategically lurk as a wolf.

But yeah, this is something I hate reading into, he could just be genuinely busy.

Huh. I... do not wolfread flat as much as I was expecting going into this. I can't justify removing him from POE based on this but wouldn't be my first choice to vote today.

Also @flat_footed if you're reading: hi! Can you please vote for someone, and also give thoughts on whoever you have thoughts on? Thanks!

Also also questions I want to explore myself and think other people should explore too: let's consider three worlds.

1. Allando and flat are both wolves.
2. Allando is a wolf, flat is town.
3. Allando is town, flat is a wolf.

a) which of these worlds do you think is most likely? Are there any you'd rule out? Why/why not?
b) what do you think wolves' strategy is in each world? Who outside Allando/flat looks to be following that strategy iyo?
c) how probable do you think it is that we're not living in any of those worlds, and they're both town?
(Also d) if they are both town who are the wolves, but I already asked that.)

- - - Updated - - -

Maybe wolves just have low gamestate influence rn and that's why the lack of resistance to current wagons is making me paranoid.

Maybe there are deepwolves and I'm just telling myself that because I don't want to actually consider worlds where I'm misclearing someone.

Maybe I should be doing stuff that isn't this game.

- - - Updated - - -

Also this might be a bad read but. Given town!Kraken, and in particular also wolf!Allando, why didn't wolves vote Kraken D1?

Because it's an easy thing to say "oh, Snowblaze has a decent case, let's vote Kraken" and then when Kraken flips town "Snowblaze is supposed to be good at this game, why was she wrong if she's town? Let's kill her."

Instead we get Ti as the only non-me Kraken vote, for reasons not associated with my case and after I'd partially walked it back.

Did wolves see town!Kraken and presumably town!Jeen pushing back against the case and decide it was too risky to get involved? Were they just not around to get involved? Did they pick up on the Caedorus softs and decide he was a better mislynch?

All possible. But still. There's the obvious explanation, which could be more likely.

I mean, there are three likely options, in my opinion:

1) You're a wolf, and it would look extraordinarily bad for people to jump to your defense for me to flip town. You'd be paired pretty hard with the other wolves from the get go.
2) Wolves didn't want to look too eager to jump from Wagon to Wagon and waited to see where the dust would settle to avoid displaying wolf-like behaviour.
3) Allando is town and they felt safe enough they didn't need to push a third townie.

[Snowblaze]

I mean, there are three likely options, in my opinion:

1) You're a wolf, and it would look extraordinarily bad for people to jump to your defense for me to flip town. You'd be paired pretty hard with the other wolves from the get go.
2) Wolves didn't want to look too eager to jump from Wagon to Wagon and waited to see where the dust would settle to avoid displaying wolf-like behaviour.
3) Allando is town and they felt safe enough they didn't need to push a third townie.

Mmm, those are actually plausible (well, 2 and 3 are, anyway.)

Can you answer my world-building questions (the numbered list in the wall you quoted) please?

Around-ish but won't be digging into serious analysis/finishing my ISO or starting any more for a few hours.

[Batcathat]

Even if there's some time left to EoD (especially with the delay Xi advertised) it might be a good idea to try to get our votes a bit more focused (and for the people who haven't voted to do so) to minimize the risk of the wolves controlling the outcome.

As I've already explained, flat_footed would be my first choice, but if more people prefer Allando I'd be fine going back there (as an added bonus to that lynch, I've been getting a little worried about Snow again and Allando flipping wolf should calm me in that regard). I might be open for some third choice, if someone has a good case for it.

[Snowblaze]

Something just clicked in my brain. This might be a stupid read, but. It fits. I think.

I think Batcathat/Allando are w/w. Because Illven isn't the Caedorus vote we're all forgetting and not scrutinizing enough, BCH is. And I townread them for it because I thought taking actual stances was towny for them but if they're doing it to protect a wolf partner it makes so much more sense...

And then their treatment of Allando/flat today is just. I thought it was weird earlier but it didn't click that it was wolfy-weird and in particular wolf-distancing-from-their-partner-Allando weird. It's just... "I think Allando/flat are w/w but also I want to kill flat first" and having that even while voting for Allando so they always had that route off the wagon.

(Their last post also kind of read like TMI Allando flips wolf at first glance, it isn't necessarily but that's where the idea first game from ftr.)

I don't know how confident in this I am, I might wonder what on earth this idiot was thinking in a few hours, but I definitely think it's a theory worth consideration.

Sanity check appreciated, please!

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Oh, lol, just actually read Jeen's BCH ISO and "if flat flips town and Allando flips wolf, BCH looks more suspicious". I was beaten to it.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Mmm, those are actually plausible (well, 2 and 3 are, anyway.)

Can you answer my world-building questions (the numbered list in the wall you quoted) please?

Around-ish but won't be digging into serious analysis/finishing my ISO or starting any more for a few hours.

[Quote]
1. Allando and flat are both wolves.
2. Allando is a wolf, flat is town.
3. Allando is town, flat is a wolf.

a) which of these worlds do you think is most likely? Are there any you'd rule out? Why/why not?
b) what do you think wolves' strategy is in each world? Who outside Allando/flat looks to be following that strategy iyo?
c) how probable do you think it is that we're not living in any of those worlds, and they're both town?
(Also d) if they are both town who are the wolves, but I already asked that.)
[/unquote]

I think Scenario #2 is mostly likely. Scenario #1 is a little too blatant a play, I think, unless Allando is Nash.

I don't see scenario #3 is likely - how does a wolf benefit from being the last one on a wagon to seal town's fate? For that reason, I think Allando is probably the best to test here, but see my point below.

For C... that's sort of what I'm suspecting? I'm just not sure who we really test otherwise. I'm getting good gut pings from BCH (I'll go back and look at his posts) so... Cao? Illven? bladescape? I mean in an ideal world it would be you but I doubt we collectively have the stomach for that.

Also did AV give a reason for being totally inconspicuous today? Want to make sure that's not a wolf lurking under the radar.