Prediction Page, (bring your quatloos, gps, and internets, you'll need them.)

[Peelee]

Hmm, I suppose you are correct. Your comment reminded me that Hel was going to try to give Durkon a heart attack before Thor intervened, so it looks like it is indeed more an agreement among the gods than something hardwired into the rules for the Material Plane.

That's also within her domain, though more overt than is probably allowed. Also, Thor sent a massive storm to attack Hel's priest, so it looks like they are probably allowed to influence things. Direct killing is clearly not allowed, as even with Hel's plan to kill Durkon, she had to be subtle about it so the others wouldn't notice. Dollars to doughnuts they're all pretty focused on the happenings at the moment.

[brian 333]

Neither were any of the other gods or demigods raised from the world, like Dvalin, but I'm pretty sure they apply regardless. If for no reason other than TDO vs the entire other three pantheons would be pretty one-sided.

Agreed, yet I am sure they would not act against TDO out of fear of creating yet another four-color snarl.

That's also within her domain, though more overt than is probably allowed. Also, Thor sent a massive storm to attack Hel's priest, so it looks like they are probably allowed to influence things. Direct killing is clearly not allowed, as even with Hel's plan to kill Durkon, she had to be subtle about it so the others wouldn't notice. Dollars to doughnuts they're all pretty focused on the happenings at the moment.

Signs, portents, and divine inspiration are different than direct action.

Thor sent a storm that the Mechane had to navigate when he could have simply destroyed the ship, leaving Greg on an island in the middle of the sea somewhere with the OotS and the crew of the Mechane to play out a Lord of the Flies scenario. Hel spoke out of anger, but ultimately chose not to directly act. (There is a high percentage chance that Durkon will die of hypertension anyway...)

[Ruck]

That's also within her domain, though more overt than is probably allowed. Also, Thor sent a massive storm to attack Hel's priest, so it looks like they are probably allowed to influence things. Direct killing is clearly not allowed, as even with Hel's plan to kill Durkon, she had to be subtle about it so the others wouldn't notice. Dollars to doughnuts they're all pretty focused on the happenings at the moment.

Bolded for emphasis and underlined for double emphasis-- it's not allowed, but it's not impossible or something the gods are locked out from doing. Hel had to try to do it in a way the other gods wouldn't notice, because then they might retaliate in some way; it was still possible for her to act directly.

(Re: "her domain": You may be right that, being a goddess of disease and death, her ability to directly cause death may not be shared by the others, but given the gods' sheer level of power I am skeptical that one could not kill a mortal if they wanted to and didn't have an agreement in place not to.)

We don't know if TDO would care about whether they noticed, if he is not part of their agreements-- and, as brian mentions, they probably don't want to risk creating another Snarl by acting against him. Plus, honestly, the other gods probably wouldn't care too much if TDO killed his own high priest.

[Peelee]

Agreed, yet I am sure they would not act against TDO out of fear of creating yet another four-color snarl.

By the same token, TDO probably wouldn't try to interfere for the same reason.

Signs, portents, and divine inspiration are different than direct action.

Thor sent a storm that the Mechane had to navigate when he could have simply destroyed the ship, leaving Greg on an island in the middle of the sea somewhere with the OotS and the crew of the Mechane to play out a Lord of the Flies scenario.

The storm had several lightning strikes headed directly for the ship, the clear implication was without V's help the storm would have destroyed the ship

Bolded for emphasis and underlined for double emphasis-- it's not allowed, but it's not impossible or something the gods are locked out from doing. Hel had to try to do it in a way the other gods wouldn't notice, because then they might retaliate in some way; it was still possible for her to act directly.

(Re: "her domain": You may be right that, being a goddess of disease and death, her ability to directly cause death may not be shared by the others, but given the gods' sheer level of power I am skeptical that one could not kill a mortal if they wanted to and didn't have an agreement in place not to.)

We don't know if TDO would care about whether they noticed, if he is not part of their agreements-- and, as brian mentions, they probably don't want to risk creating another Snarl by acting against him. Plus, honestly, the other gods probably wouldn't care too much if TDO killed his own high priest.

Oh, i totally agree that it's possible, in much the same vein that its possible to start driving entirely on the other side of the double yellow lines. But it ain't gonna happen anytime soon.

[Metastachydium]

I wager 2 brand new pairs of shoes that O-Chul will be among those who die permanently before the end of the story, as a long-delayed dramatic climax to Elan's prediction of death.

I'll bet against that. It may just be hope, or a firm conviction that O-Chul is too great a character to imagine his story ending here. If it were necessary for the story, then it could certainly happen, but I also don't see from here how it would be necessary.

"O-Chul died permanently once. But he got better."

Neither were any of the other gods or demigods raised from the world, like Dvalin, but I'm pretty sure they apply regardless. If for no reason other than TDO vs the entire other three pantheons would be pretty one-sided.

That's also within her domain, though more overt than is probably allowed. Also, Thor sent a massive storm to attack Hel's priest, so it looks like they are probably allowed to influence things. Direct killing is clearly not allowed, as even with Hel's plan to kill Durkon, she had to be subtle about it so the others wouldn't notice. Dollars to doughnuts they're all pretty focused on the happenings at the moment.

Bolded for emphasis and underlined for double emphasis-- it's not allowed, but it's not impossible or something the gods are locked out from doing. Hel had to try to do it in a way the other gods wouldn't notice, because then they might retaliate in some way; it was still possible for her to act directly.

(Re: "her domain": You may be right that, being a goddess of disease and death, her ability to directly cause death may not be shared by the others, but given the gods' sheer level of power I am skeptical that one could not kill a mortal if they wanted to and didn't have an agreement in place not to.)

We don't know if TDO would care about whether they noticed, if he is not part of their agreements-- and, as brian mentions, they probably don't want to risk creating another Snarl by acting against him. Plus, honestly, the other gods probably wouldn't care too much if TDO killed his own high priest.

Gods are not allowed to tell mortals, not even their clerics about the Snarl or the Rifts. Big Purple did just that, and for all his high priests ever since he knows about those. He even provides updates (or used to, at any rate). He doesn't give a damn about what he's allowed or not allowed to do.

[Peelee]

Gods are not allowed to tell mortals, not even their clerics about the Snarl or the Rifts. Big Purple did just that, and for all his high priests ever since he knows about those. He even provides updates (or used to, at any rate). He doesn't give a damn about what he's allowed or not allowed to do.

Gods aren't allowed to tell those who don't already know. He know a goblin discovered a rift, which is how TDO found out. Did only thr chicken die or the tbe goblin bite it too?

Theory: TDO created the Crimson Mantle for the goblin who discovered the rift (assuming he didn't die from it, cant remember SOD) and then everyone else who out it on learned via the loophole of TDO only telling the first one, who knew already.

What updates were there?

[Metastachydium]

Gods aren't allowed to tell those who don't already know. He know a goblin discovered a rift, which is how TDO found out. Did only thr chicken die or the tbe goblin bite it too?

Both. In fact, we only see the goblin die.

What updates were there?

The Gates didn't exist back when the Mantle was reportedly created; and yet, it imparts the Ritual to its Bearer that can subvert them.

[Peelee]

Both. In fact, we only see the goblin die.



The Gates didn't exist back when the Mantle was reportedly created; and yet, it imparts the Ritual to its Bearer that can subvert them.

New theory: another goblin went to look for the one who died, found the newly built Gate, got the Mantle.

[Metastachydium]

New theory: another goblin went to look for the one who died, found the newly built Gate, got the Mantle.

Unlikely. We are told he gave it to his then-high priest, who wasn't even in the West at that point and that the Scribblers killed that one before they made the Gates.

[Ruck]

Oh, i totally agree that it's possible, in much the same vein that its possible to start driving entirely on the other side of the double yellow lines. But it ain't gonna happen anytime soon.

I don't think it will happen, myself, but the question I'm grappling with at this point is "What is actually stopping The Dark One from doing so?"

[BloodSquirrel]

I don't think it will happen, myself, but the question I'm grappling with at this point is "What is actually stopping The Dark One from doing so?"

I'm not sure there really is anything other than that, typically speaking, a god killing their own high priest doesn't do them a lot of good. Generally, your high priest doesn't get to be your high priest unless he's sufficiently devoted, and we haven't seen many situations where a high priest betrays his faith and what their god's response would be. I also imagine that refusing to grant them any more spells would be a very serious and highly visible punishment in and of itself, and would probably serve the god's purpose even more so than killing them. Otherwise, I don't think it would be that unbelievable for a god to smite one of his own followers. It might not even be against the rules- it's not like we've been given an explicit run-down of them. There well could be a "Your own followers are your own business" clause.

The closest thing I can think of that we've seen is Miko falling and losing her powers. The gods did visibly interfere at that moment.

[Peelee]

I don't think it will happen, myself, but the question I'm grappling with at this point is "What is actually stopping The Dark One from doing so?"

That's why i keep trying to theorize on him following the rules, more or less - unless and until he openly goes against them, why not just assume he's also following them?

[brian 333]

That's why i keep trying to theorize on him following the rules, more or less - unless and until he openly goes against them, why not just assume he's also following them?

Because so far he is not.

He told his high priest about it in direct violation of the 'No Blabbing' policy.

He actively created a ritual that if cast would let The Snarl out of it's prison, and gave it to his high priest.

[BloodSquirrel]

It seems pretty explicitly to me that the gods all follow the rules in the "cold war" sense. They do what they have to in order to keep it from becoming a hot war, but they'll all cheat if and when they can get away with it to some degree or another. Hel follows the rules until she thinks she can cheat. Thor stretches the rules with Minrah by telling her stuff on a very thin justification of "She's heard the word 'Snarl' before". Loki straight-up says he approves of cheating as a general principle. Thor also says that The Dark One doesn't have a formal place in most of their conventions, so he can't actually be following the rules except in a mostly functional sense, rather than a technical one.

We haven't been given any indication that they are metaphysically prevented from breaking any of the rules, we have been directly told their motivations for following them, and we've been given multiple instances of them cheating when they think they can get away from it. What else is missing?

Not that The Dark One killing Redcloak would necessarily be cheating. We don't know one way or the other because we don't know what most of them are, and neither do any of the main characters, partially because a lot of them stem from The Snarl existing, and that has to be kept a secret.

Point is, I don't think we can take anything that The Dark One does as evidence of there not being a rule against it because the only real reason for him to follow any rules is to avoid retaliation, and if the other gods don't retaliate against him when he does something, then it could either be because he didn't violate a rule or because he's not subject to the rules and what he did does not, by itself, warrant retaliation.

[Oromin]

Because so far he is not.

He told his high priest about it in direct violation of the 'No Blabbing' policy.

He actively created a ritual that if cast would let The Snarl out of it's prison, and gave it to his high priest.

I have to agree with Brian that trying to blackmail the other gods with the Snarl is probably against the rules.

I think the extent to which the Dark One has refrained from direct intervention is mostly indicative of his bargaining position being quite weak. It's unclear how much he knows or understands the various god laws, but in any contest of divine might he'd lose. There are too many other gods. So refraining from actions that might cause such a direct confrontation are in his best interest even if he's not totally sure what those actions might be.

[Kish]

Thor said "the slightest disagreement could create a new two-color Snarl." I do not think that maps to "the Dark One needs to tread lightly lest the other gods beat him up."

[Ruck]

That's why i keep trying to theorize on him following the rules, more or less - unless and until he openly goes against them, why not just assume he's also following them?

Well, I don't assume he's not following them yet. Again, the question I'm grappling with is, if he decided to kill Redcloak (unlikely as I find that), would there be anything to deter or stop him from doing so?

[BloodSquirrel]

Thor said "the slightest disagreement could create a new two-color Snarl." I do not think that maps to "the Dark One needs to tread lightly lest the other gods beat him up."

That doesn't really follow. We're talking about a scenario here where everyone has an incentive to avoid a direct conflict, including the Dark One, but where the Dark One is almost certainly to come out the worst if it happens. If one god begins flouting the rules and dares the other gods to do anything about it, they're going to act. Risking another snarl would be bad, but letting another god do literally whatever they want with no fear of reprisal would be even worse, especially when that includes trying to take control of the existing snarl.

This is a game that gets played whenever you have a MAD scenario. Both sides have to figure out how far the other side can be pushed before launching the nukes, and having stronger conventional forces can play a role in that.

Also, we know for a fact that Thor tried to directly attack him when he had just been born. There is definitively a calculus behind when and when they aren't willing to risk a new Snarl.

[Metastachydium]

Well, I don't assume he's not following them yet. Again, the question I'm grappling with is, if he decided to kill Redcloak (unlikely as I find that), would there be anything to deter or stop him from doing so?

I don't think so, no. He worked around the rules in ways that should make the others far more twitchy. And he's in a pretty good position. The Northern and Southern gods are divided on what to do with him, so it is possible that an attempt from within the Pantheon to snuff him out would be checked by the opposing faction. The Westerners, meanwhile, don't really take him seriously. I can't quite see who would stop him from messing up his own church, really, not that (I agree) he has much reason to do so.

[brian 333]

Why would any deity care what he does with his own clergy? That seems to me to be an internal church matter.

[Provengreil]

Well, I don't assume he's not following them yet. Again, the question I'm grappling with is, if he decided to kill Redcloak (unlikely as I find that), would there be anything to deter or stop him from doing so?

Probably not, for the same reason the godsmoot didn't have a rule preventing Roy from attacking Durkula. It's extremely difficult to imagine a situation in which that's an advantage for the bodyguard killing his charge after getting them all the way there, and thus the rule hasn't been made.

I'd lay chips that the gods' rules on killing their own high priest are similar.

[brian 333]

Probably not, for the same reason the godsmoot didn't have a rule preventing Roy from attacking Durkula. It's extremely difficult to imagine a situation in which that's an advantage for the bodyguard killing his charge after getting them all the way there, and thus the rule hasn't been made.

I'd lay chips that the gods' rules on killing their own high priest are similar.

I have seven blue chips and a bag of Lay's Lightly Salted that you are right. There is no rule against it because it happens so seldom if at all.

Edit: Half a bag of Lay's. For some reason I am not allowed to eat just one.

[Leriel]

Even if there's a long thread dedicated, I'd bet the MitD is some big caterpillar waiting to be a butterfly

[Kish]

Even if there's a long thread dedicated, I'd bet the MitD is some big caterpillar waiting to be a butterfly

Metaphorically, I would not be surprised.

(If that was literally true I would be astounded.)

[Elanfanforlife]

I bet 500 gps that the final fight will take place in the final dungeon, but not at Kraagor's Gate, or it will start elsewhere in the final dungeon and then move to the gate.

[brian 333]

I bet 500 gps that the final fight will take place in the final dungeon, but not at Kraagor's Gate, or it will start elsewhere in the final dungeon and then move to the gate.

Seeing as we are not yet a quarter of the way into the final book, (if The Author has not mislead us about it being longer than UD,) and the OotS is headed to the Final Dungeon now, I'll take that bet.

I will add a side bet of 72 pps that more than half of the final book will come after they leave the Final Dungeon.

[Ruck]

Seeing as we are not yet a quarter of the way into the final book, (if The Author has not mislead us about it being longer than UD,)

I'm not sure about your police work there, Lou. Utterly Dwarfed was 243 comics; we've had 92 comics in the final book so far.

[Peelee]

Also IIRC he never said it would be longer than UD, or any book. He said it would be the last book, regardless of how big it would be. That heavily implies it may be bigger, but is ni guarantee.

[brian 333]

Also IIRC he never said it would be longer than UD, or any book. He said it would be the last book, regardless of how big it would be. That heavily implies it may be bigger, but is ni guarantee.

The term 'phone book' was used, if my recollection is correct.

[Peelee]

The term 'phone book' was used, if my recollection is correct.

Yes, it was. As in, "even if it's the size of a phone book". Again, heavily implied but no guarantee.