Dead of Winter Mafia 2

[CaoimhinTheCape]

You don't get to enjoy nature anymore. If you're outside of a building or anywhere fortified, you're on alert. Instead of listening for bird calls, you're listening for zombies. I hope we can get back to that someday, but not while we're still struggling like this and our people keep dying.

Illven was attacked just before she made it back to safety. I was on watch, but I couldn't see who had done it. We sent out Grey Beard as well... I can't say I knew him well but when push came to shove he put his life on the line for us... and lost it.

I'm hoping this fighting the living will be over soon. So we can focus on the dead again.

Harman Brooks (Park Ranger)



Illven was killed. She was Village.

Her secret objective was But what about them? End the day voting for someone other than the person killed 2 times.

Grey Beard (Pirate) was killed. He was an NPC.


Day 4 begins and lasts for 48 hours.

[Rogan]

Illven was killed. She was Village.

Day 4 begins and lasts for 48 hours.

Seems like the last wolf wants to generate paranoia about Blades.
Bat, I think you can tell us the result of your scry ASAP. If we got a red result on Book, we can end this here, otherwise it seems like we need to actually get some more reads going.

Also, I can confirm Rouge and I were at the Police together and a new pair of radios was handed out. Last night also resulted in the completion of my goal.

(Also³, I should be asleep, but calling my sleep schedule a schedule is an overstatement...)

[Let'sGetKraken]

Seems like the last wolf wants to generate paranoia about Blades.
Bat, I think you can tell us the result of your scry ASAP. If we got a red result on Book, we can end this here, otherwise it seems like we need to actually get some more reads going.

Also, I can confirm Rouge and I were at the Police together and a new pair of radios was handed out. Last night also resulted in the completion of my goal.

(Also³, I should be asleep, but calling my sleep schedule a schedule is an overstatement...)

Can confirm Book and I were at the Library. Makes me think he was not a wolf, since I feel like a wolf in his position would have gone to the Hospital.... but I suppose BCH can confirm either way.

[Snowblaze]

Was at the hospital with bladescape, we protected BCH.

Yeah, BCH should claim their scry result straight away. If it's a wolf then game over, we win. If it's town then that person is 100% mechanically clear since wolf!BCH can't fake-clear a partner because they have no partner.

N3 confirmed locations:
Snowblaze and bladescape at the hospital
Book Wombat and Let'sGetKraken at the library
Rogan and rogue_alchemist at the police station

N3 according to the plan: Illven and Caedorus at the grocery store, Batcathat at the school

Has anyone not yet achieved their secret win-con?

People there is strong mechanical evidence to townread: bladescape, Let'sGetKraken, Batcathat

The rest:
rogue_alchemist
Rogan
Caedorus
Book Wombat

In approximate order of suspicion, with Wombat as most suspect.

Eight alive? Wait, yes, Jeen left on the no-kill night so we've had "six deaths".

[Batcathat]

As you might be able to guess from the lack of a cool mic drop moment, I did not find the final wolf. Normally I'd be hesitant to reveal a negative scrying result right away, but I wouldn't really be able to take part in the discussion if I didn't (not to mention that most people can probably guess who I scried anyway). So... BW is not a wolf. (So yeah, I got to school as planned, which probably means we're not likely to catch a wolf in a lie about their night location).

I don't know about the rest of you, but that leaves me very unsure about who the last wolf might be. Gut says RA or Caedorus, followed by Rogan or Snow, but I have no idea how to cut down that number.

- - - Updated - - -

The rest:
rogue_alchemist
Rogan
Caedorus
Book Wombat

In approximate order of suspicion, with Wombat as most suspect.

I noticed you townreading RA strongly earlier too and I'm not really sure why. Are you just putting more weight on the selfvote than I am or am I missing something else?

[Book Wombat]

So my NPC didn't die, so that's possible town points for Caedorus. But of course, he might think of this, and so it spirals. So who knows.

[Rogan]

As you might be able to guess from the lack of a cool mic drop moment, I did not find the final wolf. Normally I'd be hesitant to reveal a negative scrying result right away, but I wouldn't really be able to take part in the discussion if I didn't (not to mention that most people can probably guess who I scried anyway). So... BW is not a wolf. (So yeah, I got to school as planned, which probably means we're not likely to catch a wolf in a lie about their night location).

I don't know about the rest of you, but that leaves me very unsure about who the last wolf might be. Gut says RA or Caedorus, followed by Rogan or Snow, but I have no idea how to cut down that number.

- - - Updated - - -



I noticed you townreading RA strongly earlier too and I'm not really sure why. Are you just putting more weight on the selfvote than I am or am I missing something else?

Oh come on... mobile has eaten my post...
Short version:

Tinfoil on Snow.
Rouge as suggested Scry target, cause he's very silent and therefore hard to read.
Book as suggested designated Seer, permanent Hospital protection included.

Todo: Reread Caedorus.

- - - Updated - - -

So my NPC didn't die, so that's possible town points for Caedorus. But of course, he might think of this, and so it spirals. So who knows.

Your NPC isn't permanent, right? You only got the extra vote during d3?

[Snowblaze]

As you might be able to guess from the lack of a cool mic drop moment, I did not find the final wolf. Normally I'd be hesitant to reveal a negative scrying result right away, but I wouldn't really be able to take part in the discussion if I didn't (not to mention that most people can probably guess who I scried anyway). So... BW is not a wolf. (So yeah, I got to school as planned, which probably means we're not likely to catch a wolf in a lie about their night location).

I don't know about the rest of you, but that leaves me very unsure about who the last wolf might be. Gut says RA or Caedorus, followed by Rogan or Snow, but I have no idea how to cut down that number.

- - - Updated - - -



I noticed you townreading RA strongly earlier too and I'm not really sure why. Are you just putting more weight on the selfvote than I am or am I missing something else?

Okay, fine, so the game isn't quite that easy.

My reasons for townreading rogue_alchemist are that Ti pushed him in a way that's really weird and shady and probably not partnered, and that he went to the same location as Ti N1 when without a firm town plan wolves are forced to obey it's better for them to infiltrate more locations for more influence and information.

Oh come on... mobile has eaten my post...
Short version:

Tinfoil on Snow.
Rouge as suggested Scry target, cause he's very silent and therefore hard to read.
Book as suggested designated Seer, permanent Hospital protection included.

Todo: Reread Caedorus.

- - - Updated - - -

Your NPC isn't permanent, right? You only got the extra vote during d3?

Seconding the Wombat suggestion.

Tinfoil on me is understandable. Actually can I request to be scried tonight if game isn't over by then? Since if we do find out we're in Hard Mode(TM) then I probably can't ever remove myself from POE without being mechanically cleared, since I'm myself and since I was low-effort up until stuff reduced to solve-by-mechanics.

Also I got a radio last night; did you send it, and if so who was the other person you gave one to?

Also also Caedorus is now at the bottom of my POE.

(Also also also I really want to see Taffy's reaction if it turns out Caedorus killed Sparky.)

[Rogan]

Tinfoil on me is understandable. Actually can I request to be scried tonight if game isn't over by then? Since if we do find out we're in Hard Mode(TM) then I probably can't ever remove myself from POE without being mechanically cleared, since I'm myself and since I was low-effort up until stuff reduced to solve-by-mechanics.

Also I got a radio last night; did you send it, and if so who was the other person you gave one to?

Also also Caedorus is now at the bottom of my POE.

(Also also also I really want to see Taffy's reaction if it turns out Caedorus killed Sparky.)

A scry on you would be okay for me. A scry on me as well, for that matter, I've got nothing to hide. I should take a look on the Ti-Rouge interactions you mentioned and check if I agree with them.

We didn't send you a radio, so this seems to be the Store. Bat got one from us, cause we were reasonably sure he would be protected, I'll keep the other one hidden for now.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Okay, hear me out....

Is BatCatHat immune from suspicion here? I know he turned on Xihirli, but that could be ruthless bussing.

Like, as a wolf, would you really out yourself here by accusing someone that will be probably town?

All I'm saying is that the only people who *cannot* be wolves are BW and Bladescape. So I am good with either of them scrying.

Whichever of Bladescape and BW does not scry should 100% go to the hospital tonight.

...I'm thinking Caedorus or Rogan right now. But will have to go back.

- - - Updated - - -

Oh no oh **** technically blade has not been scried. But like, 0.00001% chance blade is a wolf, since it would have required wolves to throw away a kill and bus someone who did not have suspicion at that point.

[bladescape]

Snowblaze

*Waves magic wand*

- - - Updated - - -

There are possibilities it's other people but I have dumb or not so dumb reasons to think most of the others are town.

[Snowblaze]

Okay, hear me out....

Is BatCatHat immune from suspicion here? I know he turned on Xihirli, but that could be ruthless bussing.

Like, as a wolf, would you really out yourself here by accusing someone that will be probably town?

That is my "break glass in case of emergency" tinfoil. But I don't think this is an emergency aorn.

Snowblaze

*Waves magic wand*

- - - Updated - - -

There are possibilities it's other people but I have dumb or not so dumb reasons to think most of the others are town.

...this means I actually have to put in effort now, doesn't it?

[Let'sGetKraken]

There are two people alive that are certainly/almost certainly town. Book Wombat (ironically went from most to least suspicious) and Bladescape.

There are two people that are very probably town. Me (for actively blocking a wolf kill, not to mention that thing with AV N1) and BatCatHat, for turning on xihirli like that. Plus, not sure a wolf makes the decision to distribute a radio like that anyhow.

That leaves Snowblaze, Caedorus, Rogan, and Rogue. Our wolf is 95% in that group.

[Snowblaze]

All right. From the top down:

Book Wombat is mechanically clear.

wolf!bladescape has to bus a partner when neither were in imminent danger of death and given alignment scries and bladescape being himself he never makes it to endgame. He then has to deliberately no kill to give himself more towncred that's of negligible value to him, and... no, that's just a mistake wolf!bladescape doesn't make.

(Wait I just figured out why Caedorus might be town. That does assume certain priorities for hypothetical wolf!Caedorus though. No, I will not be elaborating on that.)

rogue_alchemist is town for the reasons I mentioned earlier, plus I do personally put significant weight on the self-vote.

wolf!Kraken has to deliberately not kill in order to gain towncred. Granted "not targeting the unprotected scrier N2" is invalid since the unprotected scrier was in fact Xihirli and a wolf, but I still think that's an unlikely gambit for a wolf to try.

What's bugging me about BCH is that... it's just not worth it for a wolf to trade themselves for blocking a single scry. But trading themselves for letting their partner go deep when the last wolf kind of has to go deep to win? Definitely worth it.

Counter-arguments are a) Xihirli was reasonably suspected and a likely scry target anyway (I think? Correct me if I'm wrong there): b) it's Xihirli; and c) I vaguely recall finding BCH towny at some point. So yeah, this is very tinfoil and I wouldn't say it's likely. But it's not impossible.

...actually I thought of another reason to townread Caedorus, help. (That being "does a wolf really enter D2 treating the Sparky kill as a gotcha on Wombat?" And for that matter "does a wolf even kill their own NPC?")

But if Caedorus is town who's the wolf?

(No, Snowblaze, stop having flashbacks to Champs and wanting to vote bladescape. You've just explained why bladescape is almost certainly town for valid reasons.)

(Maybe I do need to break the emergency glass.)

(I did have reasons to actually suspect Caedorus though didn't I? Or reasons why he made sense as a wolf, at least.)

[Batcathat]

There are two people that are very probably town. Me (for actively blocking a wolf kill, not to mention that thing with AV N1) and BatCatHat, for turning on xihirli like that. Plus, not sure a wolf makes the decision to distribute a radio like that anyhow.

I'm probably just forgetting something obvious, but what was the thing with you and AV?

Other than that, I agree with all of this post (well, I might be a little more paranoid about blade, but I've decided to ignore that for now).

- - - Updated - - -

Very unsure about who to vote for though. On one hand, I think Caedorus is a more likely wolf than Snow (though that's mostly gut). On the other hand, I trust blade more than I trust Snow or Rogan, so if I should follow anyone's lead...

[Snowblaze]

I'm probably just forgetting something obvious, but what was the thing with you and AV?

Other than that, I agree with all of this post (well, I might be a little more paranoid about blade, but I've decided to ignore that for now).

I believe it's Kraken and AV setting up a chat and then AV dying N1.

[Book Wombat]

Your NPC isn't permanent, right? You only got the extra vote during d3?

Oh, whoops.

[bladescape]

Rogan is almost certainly town for N1

Book is scried.

Kraken/BCH are in the pool of "Actively sacrificed Wolf Wincon to get cred". Which is not impossible, but both would've had to play with that.

Rogue gets towncred for how Ti treated him.

Cae gets some for Ti's treatment and position as well.

Snow has been in an awkward afk position.

Snow being town is very possible who has been unlucky due to champs.

I'm going to keep my magic wand vote and now think about other options.

[Snowblaze]

Oh, whoops.

Can you scry me tonight please?

bladescape, elaborate on why you're clearing Rogan?

[bladescape]

Can you scry me tonight please?

bladescape, elaborate on why you're clearing Rogan?

Rogan's N1 makes no sense from wolf perspective

- - - Updated - - -

This is where the little voice in the back of my mind reminds me I do this sometimes as wolf for exactly this reason but shush

[Snowblaze]

Rogan's N1 makes no sense from wolf perspective

- - - Updated - - -

This is where the little voice in the back of my mind reminds me I do this sometimes as wolf for exactly this reason but shush

Ah. Right. Cryptic bastard. Why did I expect anything more helpful?

[bladescape]

Ah. Right. Cryptic bastard. Why did I expect anything more helpful?

Rogan talked down Cae from checking Jeen's secret wincon.

It just doesn't make sense for a wolf.

- - - Updated - - -

And tbh Cae's tunnel on Jeen also felt legit.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I believe it's Kraken and AV setting up a chat and then AV dying N1.

Yeah, for wolves, it doesn't make any sense to allow AV to connect with someone random, as you don't want to connect two town members. If I was a wolf, I would be incentivized to form a chat with AV rather than allow her to influence a random town.

The "Kraken doesn't feel like he could fool AV" thing makes me a little angry given that not only is it a little condescending, my first game on this forum I did exactly that so convincingly a mod had to step in because two town suspected each other so hard it was escalating. AV is a good player - she is not an intimidatingly good player. I'm not saying I could convincingly fool her every game - I am also not an intimidatingly good player - but it's better to try than to let her connect with random town. And so given that I made a chat with AV regardless of whether I was town, killing her makes absolutely no sense as a wolf.

So that's my argument. Bladescape can also confirm that I suggested we protect him N2, so it's not like I bandwagoned towards protecting him from the kill. I'm taking full credit.

[Snowblaze]

Rogan talked down Cae from checking Jeen's secret wincon.

It just doesn't make sense for a wolf.

Okay this is a case of "Snowblaze doesn't have sufficient awareness of what happened D1 or the first half of D2" then.

I should probably fix that, shouldn't I?

[bladescape]

I however believe I could absolutely fo AV because I have an ego.

Wait that wasn't the question?

- - - Updated - - -

Fool* typingtoofastonphone

[Let'sGetKraken]

Rogan talked down Cae from checking Jeen's secret wincon.

It just doesn't make sense for a wolf.

- - - Updated - - -

And tbh Cae's tunnel on Jeen also felt legit.

Except, hang on. As a wolf, you know Jeen is claiming to townside to avoid being lynched. You have the incentive to remove his fear of dying. You know it's not a bastard game. So why is keeping that knowledge hidden specifically townsiding?

[bladescape]

Okay this is a case of "Snowblaze doesn't have sufficient awareness of what happened D1 or the first half of D2" then.

I should probably fix that, shouldn't I?

Pls do. I can find you through readz

- - - Updated - - -

Except, hang on. As a wolf, you know Jeen is claiming to townside to avoid being lynched. You have the incentive to remove his fear of dying. You know it's not a bastard game. So why is keeping that knowledge hidden specifically townsiding?

Jeen's secret is the wildest variable in the game because it messes with locations.

You cannot tell me wolves wouldn't be tempted with a towny who is salivating at checking it.

[Rogan]

This makes sense


I was about to make an awesome post about how ti was very active on discord but silent in-thread, thus wolf when I saw blade's post

Lady Serpentine

Have resigned to typing it out on phone

Hey, Cae? Could you go back to this post again, giving some more details? I'd like to check your thought process here.

[Snowblaze]

Oh yeah, speaking of "old Caedorus posts I have questions about" - Caedorus, can you explain why you voted Xihirli for claiming wolf?

...that being said I do now recall why past!me townread Caedorus, and I still think the reasons are valid.

(Basically: Caedorus died D1 several times as town, and didn't in his wolfgame. Which illustrates the general trend of... he's chaotic as town, draws attention often in the form of suspicion, pushes things in a way he believes, doesn't care about appearances. Whereas wolf!Caedorus played a much cleaner, more calculated game in Tarot Club and flew utr a lot more. And his game here fits the former considerably more than the latter.)

Which I guess means I'm officially townreading the entire game. Joy.

Also am unvoting.

Going to stop procrastinating on RL stuff, back in a few hours. First priority when I'm done is rereading BCH.

(Part of me wants to say last wolf is in Kraken/BCH just because I'm confident enough in my townreads elsewhere. The other part says that killing one of them and being wrong is basically the only route a wolf in POE has to victory atp.)

[Rogan]

If Sparky died we have to kill Book Wombat. He was the only one who knew I was at the colony (store was full) and chose Sparky. Beware, he has an npc too!

- - - Updated - - -

I expect wolves to hard-sus me now

Hmmm... Would a wolf suggest the wolves would hard-sus them for something like that?
Okay, take a step back:
Is the original post / event suspicious?

No. Caedorus couldn't have known Rouge would be at the store. Him not appearing there when it was possible for him would ring alarm bells for me, so he probably wouldn't deliberately not go there.
His observation that his NPC died and Book knew he had one isn't suspicious either.

As a wolf, Caedorus would have known Book wasn't a wolf and might have thought his attack was suspicious because he knew it wasn't correct.

---

I didn't only skim the thread, but also n2.

Jeen said, Xihirli didn't try to recruit them when I suggested she might be the kind of wolf to try. Jeen gave out a Town read for this.
It makes me slightly paranoid that I actually called this and Jeen had to deny.

Dead chat, please let me know if I was right.

Also, I mentioned that Book was a target I would consider for our (lethal) action, but Snow disagreed (despite thinking about using the gun as well). I think, she could have gotten away with a shot, which would have helped her. So that's some town points for her.
(Granted, my point was more, if I had to shoot, shoot there, but I don't want to shoot, so she might have thought actually going for the kill would have hurt her chances)

I think, if I were forced to shoot, I'd pick Book.
I don't actively suspect him, it's more like, I think this game setup is one where he would have a hard time to show his townieness.

Yeah, I'm not prepared to shoot Wombat here.
Honestly he's probably a good scry target.