Mafioso Pokemon edition. REVENGE for Blastoise.

[Xumtiil]

Still not sure what to make of all of this.
I mean, I'm used to "Xumtiil is the non-counterclaimed seer but maybe we should yeet him anyway because look at that face" and now I'm pretty much townread by everyone except Cazero?

It makes me feel like everyone's out to pocket me, tbh. So I guess towncred for Cazero for being sensible.

Soft seer claim here, also I was widely townread and actively attempted to destroy that by not moving votes when I could and generally acting suspicious (aka, normal).

Also, why do I have confirmation that you're a seer? As far as I know, my scry reflected on me and gave me my own result, including the bad alignment and wincon (assuming Snow isn't lying about being town).

[Snowblaze]

O...kay. Huh. That was... not what I was expecting.

We know Xumtiil is some degree of Seer, or I do at least, because otherwise he wouldn't have my role description. And I'm inclined to believe the falsely scrying me as neutral is correct because why would a wolf make that up. And a scry that gives false results for alignments is considerably more likely to be a town power than a wolf power.

So... I believe Xumtiil's claim.

But also I... this isn't a claim wolf!Cazero can hope to win with. He's right that he'll probably be dead by EOD4 at the latest. And claiming the Lovers thing is... that's a bluff that can be called if he's not a Seer of some sort. (I leave it up to Lovers' judgement whether to claim, if they exist. I would in their position.)

Is there a world where Illven is bastardy enough to...

Cazero? Did you scry the Lover as town or neutral?

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Wombat, would you care to give information about your win condition and why you're still here?

[Cazero]

Cazero? Did you scry the Lover as town or neutral?

I scried lover as Town.

[Persolus]

Per, solus, sol persolus "sol" per pers, solus "sol" persolus?

[Wait, Snowblaze, do you mean "tracker" as in who I visited, or "tracker" as in who visited me?]

[Xumtiil]

But also I... this isn't a claim wolf!Cazero can hope to win with. He's right that he'll probably be dead by EOD4 at the latest. And claiming the Lovers thing is... that's a bluff that can be called if he's not a Seer of some sort. (I leave it up to Lovers' judgement whether to claim, if they exist. I would in their position.)

Is there a world where Illven is bastardy enough to...

This really is the weird thing for me. It doesn't make sense for wolf!Cazero to do a kneejerk counterclaim, especially when I gave him the "it was mirrored back to me" on a silver platter. I'm inclined to go bastardies on this one - not saying that Cazero is beyond a reasonable doubt not scum, but there's something else here that is off.

[Olive_Sophia]

Snowblaze, since you're claiming town - are you saying that the win condition attached to your role scry was fabricated? Because it is very similar to the wincon Xumtiil claimed to me. I feel that he may have been inspired by his result on scrying you. I'm not sure why you'd be claiming town so hard if you aren't one, since being neutral is about as good as a clear from Town's perspective. But I believe you for the most part.

Cazero didn't actually provide any information with his counterclaim, so I'm inclined to not believe him. We were speculating before that he was a Ditto with some kind of copy power, but he hasn't latched onto that at all. It's true his counterclaim isn't very compelling as a wolf trying to escape judgement, but when the walls are closing in they'd try anything. Cazero for now.

Outside possibility is that Xumtiil and Cazero are both wolves. Xumtiil was able to claim Cazero's power because he shared it in wolf chat. And Xum still has some other unknown power. But I'm not sure I buy that.

Can someone explain the AV clear to me? They're a matchmaker for sure, but I'm not sure that really does anything for them. A scum matchmaker wouldn't make a ton of sense in a normal game, but this is minor bastardy. I wouldn't be surprised.

I've finally been able to reread most of the thread. I keep thinking to myself that if Bladescape is actually wolf and he's been cockily claiming wolf all this time that would be pretty legendary.

[Snowblaze]

Going to finish this thought now:

Is there a world where Illven is bastardy enough to...

...have a game with two players told they're Seers... Seer and Fool, both told they're the real Seer. That's not even that bastard, is it, it would just be unconventional for Fool to get all neutral results.

It fits. Not necessarily likely, but it fits. Especially if Cazero didn't get all neutral results...

I scried lover as Town.

...which he claims he did not.

So. If this theory is right, and Xumtiil and Cazero are both town... who's the wolf?

That's where I hit a mental blank, and is a problem for Tomorrow Snowblaze.

(I'm also considering the possibility there were only two wolves and we're hunting a Serial Killer.)

Per, solus, sol persolus "sol" per pers, solus "sol" persolus?

[Wait, Snowblaze, do you mean "tracker" as in who I visited, or "tracker" as in who visited me?]

The former. If you don't object, you can claim it and then (assuming you're telling the truth) Rogan can verify that I told him that D2 so am not making it up as I go along.

[Cazero]

especially when I gave him the "it was mirrored back to me" on a silver platter.

If I wanted to claim a mirror power, I would have claimed whatever Snow thrown at me was sent back to her.
You're both higher to me on postcount (and were at EoN2, I checked), so anything bouncing from one would have bounced from the other.

Unless you're claiming someone between you and Snow in postcount did the mirroring.

[Luizeu]

@Snowblaze
Am I right in assuming you can have a private chat with Cazero and Xumtill separately?

[Xumtiil]

@Snowblaze
Am I right in assuming you can have a private chat with Cazero and Xumtill separately?

I don't have a private chat with Snowblaze. I have one with Olive_Sophia

[Cazero]

I don't have a private chat at all.

[Xumtiil]

Comedy option: All nightkill flips are flipped as neutral, and Wolf!Ben was the one that shot Plaids.
Explains why No One Else died from killing Plaids, and why no one died last night. No more wolves.

[Cazero]

But that would imply a threat to town that doesn't do night kills?

[Xumtiil]

But that would imply a threat to town that doesn't do night kills?

That, or a different wincon. Like someone loudly saying

"THE THREAT IS OVER WE HAVE WON" or something. I dunno, it's still a bastard(y) game.

[Snowblaze]

Going to finish this thought now:

Is there a world where Illven is bastardy enough to...

...have a game with two players told they're Seers... Seer and Fool, both told they're the real Seer. That's not even that bastard, is it, it would just be unconventional for Fool to get all neutral results.

It fits. Not necessarily likely, but it fits. Especially if Cazero didn't get all neutral results...

I scried lover as Town.

...which he claims he did not.

So. If this theory is right, and Xumtiil and Cazero are both town... who's the wolf?

That's where I hit a mental blank, and is a problem for Tomorrow Snowblaze.

(I'm also considering the possibility there were only two wolves and we're hunting a Serial Killer.)

Per, solus, sol persolus "sol" per pers, solus "sol" persolus?

[Wait, Snowblaze, do you mean "tracker" as in who I visited, or "tracker" as in who visited me?]

The former. If you don't object, you can claim it and then (assuming you're telling the truth) Rogan can verify that I told him that D2 so am not making it up as I go along.

[AvatarVecna]

.Can someone explain the AV clear to me? They're a matchmaker for sure, but I'm not sure that really does anything for them. A scum matchmaker wouldn't make a ton of sense in a normal game, but this is minor bastardy. I wouldn't be surprised.

One of the flipped wolves had a power informing them of who got put in private chats. This power would be useless if the only chatmaker was scum, since it only tells them what they already know. It would be next to useless if there's 1 scum and 1 nonscum chatmaker, since that power is essentially "know what one townie does each night". It would be highly useful if there are two nonscum chatmakers.

[Snowblaze]

@Snowblaze
Am I right in assuming you can have a private chat with Cazero and Xumtill separately?

Theoretically, sure. In practice, I have one with neither.

Thoughts on the recent developments?

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Okay. Thoughts, in this Cazero/Xumtiil both town world I'm exploring.

AvatarVecna and Rogan are clear for reasons the former just set out.

Olive_Sophia is uncounterclaimed watcher, and pending rereading to actually take stuff in I'm inclined to believe that claim especially since she's produced verifiable results.

Book Wombat needs to clarify why he's still here and preferably cease to still be here by the end of next night phase.

Which leaves bladescape/Luizeu/Persolus... and if Cazero is telling the truth and there's no overlap in powers, there are two lovers in those names.

This is pretty much solvable by mechanics if lovers have narrator confirmation the other is town.

(Things do get a bit more complicated if we're dealing with an SK, in which case I guess SK-chatgiver is theoretically possible but still highly tinfoil.)

(The problem is I'm not sure I actually believe there's a wolf in bladescape/Luizeu/Persolus. Though I haven't actually done any non-mechanical analysis since Caedorus flip. But that's for tomorrow.)

[Cazero]

So, for the Xum-me situation, I feel like there are three possibilities.
From least to more plausible :

Option one: Xum is the Devil and I'm the Seer. He lied about the alignement of his scries target for some unfathomable reason and claimed Xatu first to make my counterclaim sound suspicious. Also somehow he knew I'd have trouble proving my counterclaim?

Option two: Xum is the Fool. His scry on me got mirrored. I knew about the mirroring but it doesn't come from myself.
So we're looking at two scum, one being me and the other being between Snowblaze and Xumtiil in postcount at EoN2.

Option three : as Snowblaze said, Xum is the Fool and I'm the Seer. Neatly explain everything without further assumptions.

Given that, I'm going to withdraw my vote from Xumtiil.

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Crazy idea : what if Snowblaze's Metronome power who can cult people is considered a threat to town?

[Olive_Sophia]

I'm also curious about Luizeu's thoughts. You don't have to get into specifics, but did you learn anything useful last night?

[Xumtiil]

So, for the Xum-me situation, I feel like there are three possibilities.
From least to more plausible :

Option one: Xum is the Devil and I'm the Seer. He lied about the alignement of his scries target for some unfathomable reason and claimed Xatu first to make my counterclaim sound suspicious. Also somehow he knew I'd have trouble proving my counterclaim?

Option two: Xum is the Fool. His scry on me got mirrored. I knew about the mirroring but it doesn't come from myself.
So we're looking at two scum, one being me and the other being between Snowblaze and Xumtiil in postcount at EoN2.

Option three : as Snowblaze said, Xum is the Fool and I'm the Seer. Neatly explain everything without further assumptions.

Given that, I'm going to withdraw my vote from Xumtiil.

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Crazy idea : what if Snowblaze's Metronome power who can cult people is considered a threat to town?

Option 4 - your results are also flawed. I know you scried someone as lovers, but no one has come forward - it's possible your flaw is that your power readings are wrong, but role names and alignments are correct, while for me role names and powers are correct, but alignments are wrong.

[Luizeu]

I'm also curious about Luizeu's thoughts. You don't have to get into specifics, but did you learn anything useful last night?

Are you implying I have a night action? And implying that you would know who was the target of said action?

[Xumtiil]

Are you implying I have a night action? And implying that you would know who was the target of said action?

We already established that she's a tracker, so... yes?

[Cazero]

Option 4 - your results are also flawed. I know you scried someone as lovers, but no one has come forward - it's possible your flaw is that your power readings are wrong, but role names and alignments are correct, while for me role names and powers are correct, but alignments are wrong.

My read on Plaids was 100% correct tho.

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Wich brings your option 4 into my option 2 : I am a lying liar who lies.

[Olive_Sophia]

Are you implying I have a night action? And implying that you would know who was the target of said action?

I mean, I assume that pretty much everyone has a night action in this game. So I'm just curious.

[Luizeu]

I'm also curious about Luizeu's thoughts. You don't have to get into specifics, but did you learn anything useful last night?

Last night I learned that Xumtill visited Cazero, that's all I'm going to say for now

[Xumtiil]

My read on Plaids was 100% correct tho.

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Wich brings your option 4 into my option 2 : I am a lying liar who lies.

Your read on Plaids matches the death flip - which I'm not convinced was accurate either. If Plaids had a mirror power, I would totally expect whatever killed him to have bounced back.

There's really only going to be one good way out of this.

We lynch the Xumtiil.

This is a stupid move as Wolf, and if I do have the *hit three alignments* neutral role I'd be actively choosing to lose.

My death flip should come up as:
Xatu
You are Xatu the mystic pokemon. Town
Future sight. During the night you may declare one player. At the end of night you are given their role name, alignment and powers.

Compare it to what you get as a flip, go from there. May Mew have mercy on you all.

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(also it's been a while since I got unanimously lynched, gotta uphold my legacy somehow)

[Persolus]

The former. If you don't object, you can claim it and then (assuming you're telling the truth) Rogan can verify that I told him that D2 so am not making it up as I go along.

Pers solus sol persolus per. Sol solus.

[Well in that case I can verify that N1 I did not target anyone whatsoever with my ability. I can full claim if you want.]

[Cazero]

Whoop, I missed that.

Which leaves bladescape/Luizeu/Persolus... and if Cazero is telling the truth and there's no overlap in powers, there are two lovers in those names.

Both lovers should have a separate power.

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Your read on Plaids matches the death flip - which I'm not convinced was accurate either. If Plaids had a mirror power, I would totally expect whatever killed him to have bounced back.

There's really only going to be one good way out of this.

We lynch the Xumtiil.

This is a stupid move as Wolf, and if I do have the *hit three alignments* neutral role I'd be actively choosing to lose.

My death flip should come up as:
Xatu
You are Xatu the mystic pokemon. Town
Future sight. During the night you may declare one player. At the end of night you are given their role name, alignment and powers.

Compare it to what you get as a flip, go from there. May Mew have mercy on you all.

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(also it's been a while since I got unanimously lynched, gotta uphold my legacy somehow)

That's a spectacular display of bravado. One problem tho.
If you do flip neutral, we won't know if it's because you're a neutral Xatu who needs varied scries or a corrupted flip.

(Also I'm pretty sure you can't be the true Xatu?)

[Xumtiil]

Whoop, I missed that.

Both lovers should have a separate power.

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That's a spectacular display of bravado. One problem tho.
If you do flip neutral, we won't know if it's because you're a neutral Xatu who needs varied scries or a corrupted flip.

(Also I'm pretty sure you can't be the true Xatu?)

There is no reason for neutral Xatu to self-yeet D3 - it's impossible to succeed at that point of the game. If you get a neutral flip, it's lying.

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I am town, and this is the only way I see town having a chance of figuring things out.

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[AvatarVecna]

Where did second kill come from

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That's a question for both seers in the thunderdome so we're clear. What's yer theory?