Mafioso Pokemon edition. REVENGE for Blastoise.

[Snowblaze]

Bladescape > Caed > AV > Cazero/Xumtiil

You expect me NOT to take a chance to claim wolf?

Fair, lol. Explain Cazero?

Points of note, plus a few random thoughts:

- two neutral deaths is indeed unusual... it's quite the coincidence , I'm seriously considering bladescape's theory though maybe some things are just coincidences

- then there's the flip colour being green... some narrators do use blue for town/green for neutral though

- when I first saw "Plaids has lost, Benoojian has lost" I thought the bastard mechanic was that town players only win if they survive the game and promptly panicked about my chances of getting murdered sometime soon

- I'd normally assume that Benoojian was the wolf kill and Plaids a vig shot, except... there's no sign of a reflected kill which Plaids' power should have done. Though there's a lot of different ways a kill could have failed.

- I have some mechanical information that makes Persolus more likely to be town, though it's by no means clearing.

Right. I'll be poking in and out and analysing for the next while.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: Caedorus stuff

Show

Comments in italics

Ben breaking the tie. Hmmm imo this is somewhat sus, especially because this is literally ben's second post.
Well. Yes. But also that's the lowest of low-hanging fruit.
Here it is!

I can't wait, your iso's are much better than mine. I just skimmed through Pers's posts, and there's nothing solving in there. Like nothing.
Again, yes but.

But this goes for many people. Well. But that. So later saying "why isn't Snowblaze voting for him?!" is mildly concerning.

I'm torn between looking for wolves in the top posters (to go first) or the bottom (no content). Also, do we know the wolves have powers? They might just be slacking at the bottom knowing everyone is looking at the top.

I have a hard time finding a wolfread, because almost noone has done anything townie. I do have a list of townleans though, in order from least to most weak: Snow, Rogan, Xumtiil. "Almost no-one has done anything towny, here are my townleans". (Forgive the snark. That aside, yeah, not many people have been that towny, without Caoimhin stuff I'd be pretty lost. Though also that list of townleans is a little "who are the high activity people who will be hard to get eliminated?"
Veeery vague townlean on Cao for not reacting much to being in the lead. I feel like a wolf might panic? But WIFOM obviously.
I'd honestly find it townier if there was more confidence in this. Note to self: check whether he was this hedgy when giving... wait no I'm getting confused here. Someone townread someone for not panicking when in the lead at some point early this game, though. But yes, hedgy.

I was about to change my vote. I had only made it to create a tie.
I'd suspect this line if Caoimhin had flipped town, but as it is... need to fact check but fine in isolation.
Also, how did you go from "let's not Cao, they died d1 last game" to "I'm fine with Cao in top 2"? o.O
Beyond the whole "Snowblaze why do you suddenly want Caoimhin dead" thing I have a really stupid egocentric reason to suspect this. Not listening to that reason.
Preferably, out of those options I would probably vote Persolus, he seems most wolfy.
I mean... yeah. The only wagon he didn't just state some degree of townlean on is his choice of vote.
And my explanation for Rogan is simple: he made posts that contributed to the game, and they seemed solvy. Which is more than most can say.
That could be fair, or it could be just standard wolf justifying a read there was never any towny thought process behind.

- - - Updated - - -

Actually, come to think of it, why not. Persolus

Mmm. None of this is strongly towny I don't think but it's also... I wouldn't be surprised if a townie did any of this? I could interpret waiting for my questions to switch as a wolf trying to make sure their switch away from Caoimhin looks justified.

There's also the possibility that he's expecting me to follow him here, if I've got the vote count right at this point - it was 3/3/3 Caoimhin/Rogan/Persolus, Benoojian voted Rogan and I followed that by switching from Persolus to Caoimhin to preserve the tie making it 4/4/2.

Caedorus then making it 4/3/3... there's a decent chance he expects me to switch to Persolus with him to rebuild the tie, which would have made the Caoimhin wagon go away.

This is building a narrative though. It's a pretty plausible one but it's not the only possibility.

- - - Updated - - -

Caedorus voting Caoimhin:

Another day, another vote change!

You... You picked Caomhin over me? You... You must be scum! You have to be!
Luizeu You really are a trooper, are you?
(also Snow there you go)

- - - Updated - - -

Oh wait, Rogan moved off Lui, there still isn't a tie. Whatever.

- - - Updated - - -

Ok so creating a tie.
Caomhin

Ok I hadn't realised this was the deadchat.
Because, y'know, the chat is dead.

First sentence... is that something a wolf says about a partner? Turning it over in my mind.

But yeah. This is... I can see this as a forced move. "Okay, so create a tie between two townie wagons, that has the added advantage of pocketing Snowblaze... wait no that doesn't actually make a tie... dammit now I need to actually make a tie otherwise someone will call me inconsistent but the only option is my wolf partner... yeah, sorry Caoimhin, I'll try and find a route off your wagon later".

Plausible narrative.

I'm not going to comment any more on Caedorus for a while, I'll give him space to prove me wrong if I am.

[Luizeu]

Congrats town for getting a wolf D1. Hooray!

Vote Caderous for being a turtle hating Pokemon.



That actually brings up a good point, with the new rule about posting does mafia try to post a lot to make sure their night kill/actions go through or focus more on not being suspicious in the first place and hope we WIFOM into lynching the high posters? Do they kill the high volume posters to move up in the turn order?

Maybe a random vote on D1 or maybe an attempt to distance from Caderous

Another day, another vote change!

You... You picked Caomhin over me? You... You must be scum! You have to be!
Luizeu You really are a trooper, are you?
(also Snow there you go)

- - - Updated - - -

Oh wait, Rogan moved off Lui, there still isn't a tie. Whatever.

- - - Updated - - -

Ok so creating a tie.
Caomhin

Ok I hadn't realised this was the deadchat.
Because, y'know, the chat is dead.

This post, connected to the next one

First sentence... is that something a wolf says about a partner? Turning it over in my mind.

But yeah. This is... I can see this as a forced move. "Okay, so create a tie between two townie wagons, that has the added advantage of pocketing Snowblaze... wait no that doesn't actually make a tie... dammit now I need to actually make a tie otherwise someone will call me inconsistent but the only option is my wolf partner... yeah, sorry Caoimhin, I'll try and find a route off your wagon later".

Plausible narrative.

I'm not going to comment any more on Caedorus for a while, I'll give him space to prove me wrong if I am.

Makes me believe that Caedorus was trying to approach me. Make the others believe we are close.
I'll be voting for Caedorus today and I don't plan to move away from him (except for a self-preservation vote)

[Snowblaze]

And as soon as someone agrees with me I start being attacked by paranoia, what fun.

In other news I've figured something out wrt Rogan's partial claim that makes me think it's a lot more likely he's town (and no, I won't be elaborating on that.)

More thoughts to come at some point but I want to hear more from the quieter people: Olive, Cazero, Persolus, Wombat if he has anything to share.

I'd like your three most confident reads, regardless of whether they're townreads or suspicions. Thanks!

[Rogan]

Hello again

I'll add my voice to the chorus, and demand some action from Olive.

No reason to suspect her yet, only one vague idea which I don't want to share with the class at this moment.

[bladescape]

Hello again

I'll add my voice to the chorus, and demand some action from Olive.

No reason to suspect her yet, only one vague idea which I don't want to share with the class at this moment.

I approve this content.

[AvatarVecna]

I'm just hoping for a satisfied customer

[Xumtiil]

I see the effect of what AV did, I don't think that would make sense for scum, so clearing her. For now.
I too would like to hear from Olive_Sophia. And Plaids. Their brains are unpicked, which makes me sad.

I'm gonna need some time to think about vote movements last night.

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And as soon as someone agrees with me I start being attacked by paranoia, what fun.

You should be more like Xihirli, embrace the chaos and not care about other people's opinions

[AvatarVecna]

I see the effect of what AV did, I don't think that would make sense for scum, so clearing her. For now.
I too would like to hear from Olive_Sophia. And Plaids. Their brains are unpicked, which makes me sad.

I'm gonna need some time to think about vote movements last night.

- - - Updated - - -



You should be more like Xihirli, embrace the chaos and not care about other people's opinions

You uh

You might be waiting awhile to hear from Plaids

[Rogan]

I see the effect of what AV did, I don't think that would make sense for scum, so clearing her. For now.
I too would like to hear from Olive_Sophia. And Plaids. Their brains are unpicked, which makes me sad.

I'm gonna need some time to think about vote movements last night.

- - - Updated - - -

You should be more like Xihirli, embrace the chaos and not care about other people's opinions

I'm curious about your conclusion about AV. I've got a theory myself, but your post makes me doubt the validity of it a bit... Still, it's probably better you don't say much about it.
Also, I'm with AV here. Plaids is off the table. Did you mean someone else?

To help you with the vote movement analysis:

Spoiler: Vote History D1

Show

Xumtill votes Bladescape (1)
Rogan votes Benoojian (1)
Luizeu votes Cazero (1)
Rogan votes Luizeu (1) unvotes Benoojian (0)
Benoojian votes Invalid (1)
Caderous votes Luizeu (2)
Persolus votes CaoimhinTheCape (1)
Cazero votes Rogan (1)
Cazero votes Persolus (1) unvotes Rogan (0)
Snowblaze votes Olive Sophia (1)
Caderous votes Persolus (2) unvotes Luizeu (1)
AvatarVecna votes Snowblaze (1)
CaoimhinTheCape votes Caderous (1)
Xumtill votes Luizeu (2) unvotes Bladescape (0)
Luizeu votes CaoimhinTheCape (2) unvotes Cazero (0)
Bladescape votes AvatarVecna (1)
Bookwombat votes Snowblaze (2)
Rogan votes Snowblaze (3) unvotes Luizeu (1)
Caderous votes Luizeu (2) unvotes Persolus (1)
Caderous votes CaoimhinTheCape (3) unvotes Luizeu (1)
Olive Sophia votes Xumtill (1)
AvatarVecna votes Rogan (1) unvotes Snowblaze (2)
Bladescape votes Rogan (2) unvotes AvatarVecna (0)
Plaids votes Snowblaze (3)
CaoimhinTheCape votes Persolus (2) unvotes Caderous (0)
Snowblaze votes Persolus (3) unvotes Olive Sophia (0)
Xumtill votes Rogan (3) unvotes Luizeu (0)
Benoojian votes Rogan (4) unvotes Invalid (0)
Snowblaze votes CaoimhinTheCape (4) unvotes Persolus (2)
Caderous votes Persolus (3) unvotes CaoimhinTheCape (3)
Rogan votes Benoojian (1) unvotes Snowblaze (2)
Rogan votes CaoimhinTheCape (4) unvotes Benoojian (0)
Benoojian unvotes Rogan (3)

I've just finished hacking the votes into my counter, so here you are.
My own analysis of the vote movements will take some time, especially since another hobby is calling.

[Snowblaze]

Spoiler: Wagonomics, Part One Point Two

Show

Snowblaze 2: AvatarVecna, Book Wombat
CaoimhinTheCape 2: Persolus, Luizeu
Luizeu 2: Rogan, Xumtiil
Persolus 2: Cazero, Caedorus
Caedorus 1: CaoimhinTheCape
AvatarVecna 1: bladescape
Olive_Sophia 1: Snowblaze
Illven 1: Benoojian
No posts: Olive_Sophia, Plaids

For reference on our starting point.

Allow me to blink and try something out, Snowblaze.

Rogan breaking the previous four-way tie in my... uh, disfavour?

Another day, another vote change!

You... You picked Caomhin over me? You... You must be scum! You have to be!
Luizeu You really are a trooper, are you?
(also Snow there you go)

- - - Updated - - -

Oh wait, Rogan moved off Lui, there still isn't a tie. Whatever.

- - - Updated - - -

Ok so creating a tie.
Caomhin

Ok I hadn't realised this was the deadchat.
Because, y'know, the chat is dead.

I've analysed this enough already.

Snowblaze 3: AvatarVecna, Book Wombat, Rogan
CaoimhinTheCape 3: Persolus, Luizeu, Caedorus
Persolus 1: Cazero

About time for another wagon to get moving...

Changing my vote to Rogan. No particular reason, just felt like having a reason to post.

Plot twist time.

Rogan

The fact that it's specifically AV and bladescape doing this without explanation makes me paranoid on general principle. More seriously AV did move their vote away from the main counterwagon to Caoimhin to do this. Thinnest of town points to them.

CaoimhinTheCape 3: Persolus, Luizeu, Caedorus
Snowblaze 2: Book Wombat, Rogan
Rogan 2: AvatarVecna, bladescape
Persolus 1: Cazero

So, about time for Caoimhin's partners to start moving the counterwagons up to three votes, right? You mean like this?

We have to act quickly to find Blastoise's attacker. Quick we have to give Snowblaze a mean look before they run away. I should know. Us reputable lepidoptera pokemon have a knack for unraveling mysteries with our psychic powers. Unlike those Beautifly menaces. Be warned you Beautifly loving Blastoise attackers I'm onto you.

Yes, precisely like that - uh, what do you mean "Plaids is dead and flipped not-wolf"? Yeah, I can see why vig chose that shot if they in fact did. Oh well. Onwards.

CaoimhinTheCape 3: Persolus, Luizeu, Caedorus
Snowblaze 3: Book Wombat, Rogan, Plaids
Rogan 2: AvatarVecna, bladescape
Persolus 1: Cazero

How much longer do we have in the day? Should we be starting to move toward wagons with any reasoning? I'm looking back through the thread and not seeing much of anything to base a vote on. For the people who have votes, not really interested in Rogan or Snow as people who are pretty likely to talk enough later and give us a read.

I'll move to Vote: Persolus out of the others. Xum has a light town read from me, and not much sticks out between the others so we'll see if the vote brings Persolus back.

Caoihminthecape 3: Persolus, Luizeu, Caderous
Rogan 2:Avatar vecna, Bladescape
Snowblaze2:3 Bookwombat, Rogan, Plaids
Persolus 2: Cazero, Caoihimnthecape

(Vote count corrected and stuff that isn't the four wagons removed by me.)
Our resident flipped wolf bringing another counterwagon into contention. This would potentially imply a wolf in me/Rogan, except I'm not a wolf and I no longer think Rogan is.

So this is actually when Caoimhin's partners start piling votes onto the counterwagons, right? Like this?

Correction: Plaids is currently voting for me. (Also Benoojian for Illven, even if it doesn't count.)

Okay, yeah, this has slowed down quite a bit. I'll skim through ISOs and try and get actual reads over the course of today, but for now I'll hop aboard the Persolus wagon. Because three-way ties are better than two-way ties and as I mentioned earlier Caoimhin isn't my preferred choice of counterwagon.

(And Rogan is still a townlean, I think. Plus the fact his wagon consists of bladescape and AV.)

Benoojian, can you vote for someone who isn't the narrator?

Rogan, is this a suitable "later" to explain your me vote?

Exactly like this - wait, what do you mean "this is me and my role PM says I'm not a wolf"? Er, scratch that theory.

What a twist of events! Chocolate delivery pokemon fell way behind on the races, however Wyvern Rider now has to contend with two.... wait... not two, THREE contenders!
The Superhero pokemon had surpassed Wyvern Rider, but Wyvern Rider caught up again and is now neck-to-neck with both the Superhero and the Anti-Fire Fighting Pokemon... AND HERE COMES SAAAATAAAAAN!

Rogan

Hey AV, guess what? Zombies don't blink.

Maybe this is that? It's not completely improbable that wolf!Xumtiil could see adding another variable to the equation as beneficial for Caoimhin's survival chances but "this vote has a potential wolfy motivation but also makes perfect sense coming from town!Xumtiil" isn't exactly a strong case.

Four-way tie!

CaoimhinTheCape 3: Persolus, Luizeu, Caedorus
Snowblaze 3: Book Wombat, Rogan, Plaids
Persolus 3: Cazero, CaoimhinTheCape, Snowblaze
Rogan 3: AvatarVecna, bladescape, Xumtiil
Xumtiil 1: Olive_Sophia
Invalid vote 1: Benoojian

For reference on the point we've reached.

Conclusions:
- thinnest of town points for AV

- this actually looks kind of bad for me. In my defence I'm not a wolf and also I got one killed. (Obligatory "Snowblaze is a ruthless busser, that doesn't make a difference".) Actually yeah, now I think about it you could probably make a pretty good case against me based on that D1. Someone should probably do that, since I am trying to murder you all and all that. (This is me trying to be more like Xihirli, is it working? Wait, no, I should have claimed wolf, shouldn't I. In my defence I'm a wolf and I'm going to kill you all?)

- for similar reasons I could use this as part of a case against Rogan... on the other hand Reasons.

- in general it seems like the wagons developed into the me/Rogan/Caoimhin/Persolus four-way tie fairly organically. Which suggests wolves who either didn't have particularly high thread influence or didn't feel they could use that thread influence without looking as suspicious. Which... says very little of practical use.

[Caedorus]

Spoiler: Caedorus stuff

Show

Comments in italics



Mmm. None of this is strongly towny I don't think but it's also... I wouldn't be surprised if a townie did any of this? I could interpret waiting for my questions to switch as a wolf trying to make sure their switch away from Caoimhin looks justified.

There's also the possibility that he's expecting me to follow him here, if I've got the vote count right at this point - it was 3/3/3 Caoimhin/Rogan/Persolus, Benoojian voted Rogan and I followed that by switching from Persolus to Caoimhin to preserve the tie making it 4/4/2.

Caedorus then making it 4/3/3... there's a decent chance he expects me to switch to Persolus with him to rebuild the tie, which would have made the Caoimhin wagon go away.

This is building a narrative though. It's a pretty plausible one but it's not the only possibility.

- - - Updated - - -

Caedorus voting Caoimhin:



First sentence... is that something a wolf says about a partner? Turning it over in my mind.

But yeah. This is... I can see this as a forced move. "Okay, so create a tie between two townie wagons, that has the added advantage of pocketing Snowblaze... wait no that doesn't actually make a tie... dammit now I need to actually make a tie otherwise someone will call me inconsistent but the only option is my wolf partner... yeah, sorry Caoimhin, I'll try and find a route off your wagon later".

Plausible narrative.

I'm not going to comment any more on Caedorus for a while, I'll give him space to prove me wrong if I am.

Not a lot here to react to, but worth saying the "oh wait that doesn't create a tie" was genuine. I figured we were doing d1 as "preserve the ties as long as possible and see who blinks", and when I made my mental votecount I missed someone's vote ( I can't remember who and I can't be bothered to scroll back).

Night 1 is over, please stand by for resolution.

- - - Updated - - -

It is with a heavy heart next morning that you wake up to find the interwebs down, how will you play your favorite game accountants and actuaries?

You head out to find out what happened, and you see a massive fire in front of Benoojian's door. You use Squirtle to rush in, but it's too late, he has already fainted.

Spoiler: Benoojian's flip

Show

Porygon
You are Porygon the Virtual pokemon. Neutral. You just want to upgrade the democracy, into a DIGITIAL democracy. (It's a civ 6 reference) You have a 50 percent chance to win if at the end of the phase, the amount of players still alive you have locked on is equal to the amount you haven't. You also win if at any one time the amount of players still alive that are locked on is higher then the amount that haven't.
Lock on. Once per phase you may target one player. At the end of the phase they are considered to have the status condition locked on. After they set a target for their votes, or powers they may not change it till next phase

Benoojian has lost.

You try to do a head count in the town square, but when you get there you see a deflated punching bag! Plaid has fainted, leaving the punching bag behind and the actual pokemon self crawled into a hole.

Spoiler: Plaid's flip

Show

Wobbuffet
You are Wobbuffet the patient pokemon. Neutral
You win by being targetted by one town power, one neutral power, and one wolf power. You will get feedback when you are targetted.
Counter/Mirror coat When you are targeted by a power, you immediately retaliate with the same power, learning what it is.

Plaids has lost.

Truly a sad day hangs over in Poke Ville.

Who will you blame for this?

Day 2 begins

Someone (Snow?) mentioned the wolfkill likely being Ben because otherwise the Plaids kill would've reflected. Imo it's more likely that the wolfkill didn't count as a power than another kill. Or that the wolves count as being immune to the nk.
Also general question: vig or sk?
I'm inclined vig bc 2 neutrals died already, and neither were the sk.

Conclusions:
- thinnest of town points for AV

- this actually looks kind of bad for me. In my defence I'm not a wolf and also I got one killed. (Obligatory "Snowblaze is a ruthless busser, that doesn't make a difference".) Actually yeah, now I think about it you could probably make a pretty good case against me based on that D1. Someone should probably do that, since I am trying to murder you all and all that. (This is me trying to be more like Xihirli, is it working? Wait, no, I should have claimed wolf, shouldn't I. In my defence I'm a wolf and I'm going to kill you all?)

- for similar reasons I could use this as part of a case against Rogan... on the other hand Reasons.

- in general it seems like the wagons developed into the me/Rogan/Caoimhin/Persolus four-way tie fairly organically. Which suggests wolves who either didn't have particularly high thread influence or didn't feel they could use that thread influence without looking as suspicious. Which... says very little of practical use.

More than happy to make a point against you! You're *obviously* wolf! Kill! Kill! Kill!
More seriously, Snow has been known to admit wolfyness as wolf for towncred.

[Xumtiil]

You uh

You might be waiting awhile to hear from Plaids

Flip happened at way-too-early-oclock and it didn't register entirely. I just went to the postcount and was like "Oh yeah Olive_Sophia and Plaids were low posters lets poke them a bit".

I'll get to Plaids' brain eventually though, mark my words.

[Rogan]

Flip happened at way-too-early-oclock and it didn't register entirely. I just went to the postcount and was like "Oh yeah Olive_Sophia and Plaids were low posters lets poke them a bit".

I'll get to Plaids' brain eventually though, mark my words.

Any opinion on Persolus disappearance?

[Persolus]

Any opinion on Persolus disappearance?

Pers per, solus sol sol solus. Persolus solus per sol sol pers.

[Apologies, have been awol watching meteors. Will need to get back into the game when i get more of a break at work.]

[AvatarVecna]

Thread dead, means Snowblaze frozen

- - - Updated - - -

Appalled that I arrived at my destination only to find like no posts all day. Yall are slackin

[Illven]

Alright, half way through phrase vote and post count.

Caedorus 1, Luizeu
Olive 1, Rogen
Snowblaze 1, AvatarVecna


Post order
Snowblaze>AvatarVecna=Xumtill>Rogan>Caedorus>Illve n>Bladescape>Persolus=Cazero>Luizeu>Bookwombat>Oli ve Sophia

[bladescape]

Am I gonna look like a fool? Maybe.

Do I think Olive/Snow shouldn't be wagons? Yes.

Caedorus

[Snowblaze]

Thread dead, means Snowblaze frozen

- - - Updated - - -

Appalled that I arrived at my destination only to find like no posts all day. Yall are slackin

I'm frozen by definition, there's a reason my name has "Snow" in it. Also I do need other people to do stuff occasionally.

(Seriously, yes, realising we're halfway through the phase, three people haven't posted and only four have voted is pretty concerning but also not my fault.)

Am I gonna look like a fool? Maybe.

Do I think Olive/Snow shouldn't be wagons? Yes.

Caedorus

...you approved of Rogan voting Olive earlier and she has no posts since, what changed your mind?

(I'd join you except I don't like hopping on the uncontested lead wagon even if I did make a decent chunk of the case for it. I'll vote later.)

- - - Updated - - -

Caedorus, who are the wolves?

[Cazero]

I'm baaaaack.
Curious to what AV's power is if Xumtiil can see the effects without being the target. The obvious answer is vig shot on Plaids, but Xumtiil named Olive_Sophia first.

So, reads. Not really having any yet.
Vibes. The usual.
Vote. Well, I'll try to come back with something soon, but for now I have nothing to say.

[Xumtiil]

Olive_Sophia for two reasons:

* Still hasn't shown up
* Bladescape doesn't want it

Unless someone wants to tell me Olive_Sophia also died and I just zombie'd over the info

[Snowblaze]

Olive_Sophia for two reasons:

* Still hasn't shown up
* Bladescape doesn't want it

Unless someone wants to tell me Olive_Sophia also died and I just zombie'd over the info

Fairly sure she's still alive. Is "bladescape doesn't want it" just on general principle or has he done anything particularly untrustworthy this game?

Also thoughts on Caedorus?

Reads list ish thing:
AvatarVecna
Luizeu
Xumtiil
Rogan
Persolus
bladescape/Book Wombat/Cazero/Olive_Sophia
Caedorus

Don't read too much into the ordering at the top. AV would be in the Xumtiil tier except he says they're clear which logically implies they're more likely to be town than Xumtiil.

This pretty much sets out why I'm not doing a ton of solvy work. I'm decently confident in everything above the null tier (the one with four names in), I'm taking a break from Caedorus and the null tier are.

Three are solid lack-of-AI-content this-read-isn't-going-anywhere-until-they-do-stuff nulls and the fourth is bladescape who I don't trust myself to read accurately and I don't even know if he's done anything AI for him.

So yeah. That's where I am. If you have disagreements or other thoughts please send them my way, but if it's "explain Rogan or Persolus" you'll be getting the answer "Reasons".

[Xumtiil]

Fairly sure she's still alive. Is "bladescape doesn't want it" just on general principle or has he done anything particularly untrustworthy this game?

Also thoughts on Caedorus?

Reads list ish thing:
AvatarVecna
Luizeu
Xumtiil
Rogan
Persolus
bladescape/Book Wombat/Cazero/Olive_Sophia
Caedorus

Don't read too much into the ordering at the top. AV would be in the Xumtiil tier except he says they're clear which logically implies they're more likely to be town than Xumtiil.

This pretty much sets out why I'm not doing a ton of solvy work. I'm decently confident in everything above the null tier (the one with four names in), I'm taking a break from Caedorus and the null tier are.

Three are solid lack-of-AI-content this-read-isn't-going-anywhere-until-they-do-stuff nulls and the fourth is bladescape who I don't trust myself to read accurately and I don't even know if he's done anything AI for him.

So yeah. That's where I am. If you have disagreements or other thoughts please send them my way, but if it's "explain Rogan or Persolus" you'll be getting the answer "Reasons".

Huh. Why is Luizeu so high though? Reasons?

Also, I don't think AV's power suits a wolf, but it's not impossible. Could still be a scum-friendly neutral, depending on their wincon vs their powers, but it's sufficient enough for me to put chasing AV in the coolerbox for now.

Also wrt Bladescape: General principle. Bladescape is like a wavefunction - both scum and not scum until it's collapsed, usually by his death. Preferably by his death. Another brain for the collection.

[Caedorus]

I'm frozen by definition, there's a reason my name has "Snow" in it. Also I do need other people to do stuff occasionally.

(Seriously, yes, realising we're halfway through the phase, three people haven't posted and only four have voted is pretty concerning but also not my fault.)


...you approved of Rogan voting Olive earlier and she has no posts since, what changed your mind?

(I'd join you except I don't like hopping on the uncontested lead wagon even if I did make a decent chunk of the case for it. I'll vote later.)

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Caedorus, who are the wolves?

Im on phone, but without rereading:
Still sus of you. Prooobs not Rogan but you're the only one clearing him but he's acted townie in my book.
Defo at least one of the under-radar ppl. This includes you, blade. I kinda feel like xum is town, but that's just gut. Someone mentioned xum clearing av + olive? But then he voted olive. And also I 100% missed that post.
I'll do a more thorough reads list but I feel like gut reads are actually *more* useful to town!snow.

[Snowblaze]

Huh. Why is Luizeu so high though? Reasons?

Also, I don't think AV's power suits a wolf, but it's not impossible. Could still be a scum-friendly neutral, depending on their wincon vs their powers, but it's sufficient enough for me to put chasing AV in the coolerbox for now.

Also wrt Bladescape: General principle. Bladescape is like a wavefunction - both scum and not scum until it's collapsed, usually by his death. Preferably by his death. Another brain for the collection.

Luizeu is due to being likely unpaired with Caoimhin - he was the one to get that wagon moving and stayed there all of D1. I've never seen wolf!Luizeu but I don't by default expect that to be a bus. Plus despite my self-doubt the reasoning for voting Caedorus did feel believable.

(Yeah, okay, but it's still evidence for town!AV as far as I'm concerned, and I have a few other points in their favour so.)

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Im on phone, but without rereading:
Still sus of you. Prooobs not Rogan but you're the only one clearing him but he's acted townie in my book.
Defo at least one of the under-radar ppl. This includes you, blade. I kinda feel like xum is town, but that's just gut. Someone mentioned xum clearing av + olive? But then he voted olive. And also I 100% missed that post.
I'll do a more thorough reads list but I feel like gut reads are actually *more* useful to town!snow.

(re: last sentence) shrug I just want to get some idea of your thought processes and how you're going about things, doesn't really matter how you go about doing that. Though the more thorough list would be helpful, yes.

Xumtiil did clear AV; Olive isn't directly connected to that, the only defence of Olive I've seen is bladescape saying she shouldn't be a wagon for reasons or Reasons unknown.

Also talk more about why I'm suspicious to you; "Snowblaze will admit to being wolfy as wolf for towncred" is valid but I do have fun with it as town as well. You mentioned inconsistencies in my progression on D1, have my explanations and the flip changed your opinion of those?

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I lied earlier when I said I was in paranoia and self-doubt mode. Now I am.

AvatarVecna/Luizeu/Xumtiil/Rogan/Persolus

General questions: do you think the above group contains one or more wolves? If so, who do you most suspect from it?

[Cazero]

Rereading the thread.
Distancing vibes from Xumtiil.
Vote accordingly.

[Snowblaze]

Rereading the thread.
Distancing vibes from Xumtiil.
Vote accordingly.

raises eyebrows

That's a pretty controversial opinion. Elaborate, please?

[bladescape]

...you approved of Rogan voting Olive earlier and she has no posts since, what changed your mind?

(I'd join you except I don't like hopping on the uncontested lead wagon even if I did make a decent chunk of the case for it. I'll vote later.)

A distinct lack of activity

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I lied earlier when I said I was in paranoia and self-doubt mode. Now I am.

AvatarVecna/Luizeu/Xumtiil/Rogan/Persolus

General questions: do you think the above group contains one or more wolves? If so, who do you most suspect from it?

Probably none tbh.

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Rereading the thread.
Distancing vibes from Xumtiil.
Vote accordingly.

Lol no.

Wait is it just actually the triple C.

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Xum is, despite their doubt of me, probably my third or fourth top town.

They get to be below AV for their own reasons.

[Cazero]

raises eyebrows

That's a pretty controversial opinion. Elaborate, please?

Certainly. What specificaly made me tick is this post :

Someone ruined my delicious four-way tie. And I was so looking forward to eating the winner's brains finding out who would get flipped.
Bah.
I could even it out again by voting Snowblaze, but I'm not gonna. I can't always clean up after everyone (sorry if that kills you, Rogan, unless you're scum, in which case I claim to have known all along and all of this was an elaborate ploy)

Xumtiil was happy to maintain the tie late into D1, but giving up as it's about to end might be read as "if a wolf dies from a tied vote this will look like I've been protecting them".
It could also have been an excuse to protect you, but I'm not inclined to believe that.

[Caedorus]

Rereading the thread.
Distancing vibes from Xumtiil.
Vote accordingly.

What distancing vibes?

Luizeu is due to being likely unpaired with Caoimhin - he was the one to get that wagon moving and stayed there all of D1. I've never seen wolf!Luizeu but I don't by default expect that to be a bus. Plus despite my self-doubt the reasoning for voting Caedorus did feel believable.

(Yeah, okay, but it's still evidence for town!AV as far as I'm concerned, and I have a few other points in their favour so.)

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(re: last sentence) shrug I just want to get some idea of your thought processes and how you're going about things, doesn't really matter how you go about doing that. Though the more thorough list would be helpful, yes.

Xumtiil did clear AV; Olive isn't directly connected to that, the only defence of Olive I've seen is bladescape saying she shouldn't be a wagon for reasons or Reasons unknown.

Also talk more about why I'm suspicious to you; "Snowblaze will admit to being wolfy as wolf for towncred" is valid but I do have fun with it as town as well. You mentioned inconsistencies in my progression on D1, have my explanations and the flip changed your opinion of those?

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I lied earlier when I said I was in paranoia and self-doubt mode. Now I am.

AvatarVecna/Luizeu/Xumtiil/Rogan/Persolus

General questions: do you think the above group contains one or more wolves? If so, who do you most suspect from it?

wrt inonsistencies: you seemed very keen to save Pers, though *self-doubt*. The flip being wolf... might slightly clear you from that, but only if you claimed to have suspected Cao, which I wouldn't believe without a post from back then stating it.
However on reflection, there are plenty of town reasons to want to not kill another townie - not to mention neutral reasons, although that would require probably 2 more neutrals which is a bit much imo. If there even are any more neutrals, it's probs just one.
wrt your list of people: There might be a wolf in there, I feel like it's enough ppl that statistically it's likely.
Who do I suspect most? Luizeu, but I don't suspect them much. See reads below.

Spoiler: My thought process

Show

Right, so there are more people than I can keep track of in my head.
List of players:

AvatarVecna
Benoojian neutral, locks people on
Bladescape
Bookwombat
Caderous
CaoimhinTheCape wolf, targets someone and scries as them
Cazero
Luizeu
Olive Sophia
Persolus
Plaids neutral, reflects powers
Rogan
Snowblaze
Xumtill

Step 2: strikethrough dead ppl, remove myself

AvatarVecna
Bladescape
Bookwombat
Cazero
Luizeu
Olive Sophia
Persolus
Rogan
Snowblaze
Xumtill

Ok so these are the potential wolves.

Now, people vouching for eachother:
Snow → Rogan
Xumtiil → Av
Bladescape → Olive (?)
So barring tinfoiling I'm going to assume these aren't wolves together. Barring tinfoiling. BARRING TINFOILING
Also, for the sake of sanity, let's assume none of the ones on the right are wolves.
I have a tendency to scumread people who scumread me, compensating by clearing Snow >:(

That leaves the follownig as possibly "more likely than the others to be" wolf:

Bladescape
Bookwombat
Cazero
Luizeu
Persolus
Xumtill

I'm going to remove Persolus because of Snow's behaviour, but they're very much paired imo.
Bladescape was unusually silent d1
Book I have Reasons to think is at least Neutral (yes, I have a power aswell!)
Caz just did something sus, after going through iso: frustratingly nothing, and the only post that said "so, reads" turned out to be a gasp of air.
Luizeu... there was some discussion, let me check...
Oh yes, Snow putting Lui high on her list.
Lui gets a townlean by virtue of making a solving post. Yes, it's little in a normal game, but I'm working with what I have.
Xumtiil has managed to hit that point where most of his posts have some useful stuff in there but he has a joke running simultaneously. Only slightly envious, but townlean.
So, in order from most to least town:

Xumtill
Luizeu
Bookwombat
Bladescape
Cazero

The conclusions:
Pretty sure are town, barring tinfoiling:
Rogan, AV, Olive, Snow

Null read because of shenanigans: Persolus

The rest, in order from townlean to probably scum:
Xumtill, Luizeu, Bookwombat, Bladescape, Cazero

I have Reasons to think Book isn't wolf but I want to point out Book is clueless about said reasons (or he should be).
Only reason Snow is under "clear" is because I've detected tunneling in myself, and I'm compensating. I don't have an actual reason.
Kudos if you found this before someone quoted my post.
Bladescape/Caz? I could see that.
Let's put some pressure. Cazero

[Cazero]

Wait is it just actually the triple C.

Can't speak for Caedorus, but I expect to be able to prove my innocence eventualy.