The Wizard's Tower by Luizeu

[Book Wombat]

If you were obliged to place a blue vote on someone other than yourself right now, who would you pick and why?

Heh, Taffimai. I'll play along today.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Cazero and I were the first two 3-person wagons, logically there should be wolves on them because wolves prefer to join rather than start wagons. I've colour-coded the names according to how scummy their vote felt to me. Snow gets bonus scum points for being active without solving or pushing people to engage, the difference with last game is stark, so she gets my vote for the moment to see where that wagon goes and to activate her sense of survival solving.

Do you think the other wagons with 3+ people are clear of wolves? Why did you not include the Flat or Meta wagon in this analysis?

Unless you're a mason or some other role that gives you certain knowledge of the alignment of another, the only person you know for sure is town is yourself. Why would you entrust that power to someone that isn't guaranteed town?

Do we actually know that the Lantern is a good thing? I mean, I'm assuming it is (as evidenced by voting myself to get it) but I don't think there's any mechanical evidence or words from the narrator saying it's good.

On a completely different note, I'm not sure whether or not I should suspect Cao for making a post count when there's literally no votes since the previous count. On one hand, it feels like seemingly useful filler, but on the other hand vote-counting is kind of Cao's thing, so maybe not?

When I catch up on the thread, my process is to go to my old post, copy the vote count from there, put it in my new post, and update it as I read and catch up. If there's no vote change I don't see any reason to delete it, since I can look back and confirm the votes as of a slightly later post.

Regardless, I don't think anyone gives me town cred for vote counts after however many years I've been here.




Athedia feels town to me as well, hesitantly giving a town lean to SNow as well. Nothing else jumping out at me for reads atm.

Spoiler: Vote Count

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Vote Count
Meta (3): Book, Benoojian, JeenLeen
Flat (2): Ilven, Bladescape
Snowblaze (2): Cazero, Taffimai
Cazero (3): Snowblaze, Athedia, Meta
Taffimai (4): Persolus, Flat_footed, Cape, Batcathat
Batcathat (1): Olive_Sophia
BookWombat (1): AvatarVecna
No Vote: MayanStar, Kraken

Spoiler: Oil Lamp Vote Count

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Oil Lamp Vote Count
Kraken (2): Ilven, Kraken
Cazero (1): Cazero
Batcathat (1): Batcathat
Snowblaze (2): Snowblaze, Bladescape
Taffimai (2): Taffimai, Book
Cape (1): Cape
AvatarVecna (1): Olive_Sophia
flat_footed (1): AvatarVecna
Persolus (1): Benoojian
JeenLeen (1): JeenLeen
No Vote: Persolus, Flat_footed, MayanStar, Meta, Athedia

[JeenLeen]

Heh, Taffimai. I'll play along today.

Book Wombat, what are your thoughts on the idea of letting RNG decide who gets the latern?

Cazero and I were the first two 3-person wagons, logically there should be wolves on them because wolves prefer to join rather than start wagons.

I had forgotten to comment on this, but remembered upon reading Cao quote it.
I don't think Taffimai's assertion is true. That there could (or perhaps even statistically should) be wolves on her or Cazero's wagon is definitely true. But I question that wolves prefer to join rather than start wagons early D1.
Assuming Taffimai and Cazero are town, the wolves were probably happy about the wagons and not wanting to draw attention to themselves.

If Taffimai and Cazero flip wolf, then I think wolves are likely in the other counterwagons since they'd have a motivation to help those wagons gain steam. (Although it being real early D1 kinda negates that.)
If Taffimai or (but not and) Cazero flip wolf, then I think the same. The wolves wouldn't want to strongly bolster the first counterwagon lest it be too obvious they are protecting Cazero. They might want to put a 2nd or 3rd vote elsewhere nominally 'to drive discussion' while in actuality protecting a scumbuddy.
If Taffimai and Cazero flip town (or neutral), then I think it's kinda a wash info-wise at firs glance. Wolves might be on their wagons, but probably don't want to seem too eager to get those wagons high. So, if a wolf voted there, I'd think it's the 1st or 2nd vote. BUT if one of the other high wagons flips wolf as well, then maybe a wolf is pushing Taffimai or Cazero to try to protect their scumbuddy.

I'm a bit mentally tired and not able to hold all the permutations in my head, but I think the order that counterwagons formed could give a lot of information once we know the alignment of some of these.

Slight scumread on Meta and Taffimai, although the lean on Taffimai is stronger if Meta flips wolf. I'll need to reread if Meta flips Town to see if I still find Taffimai suspicious.
Slight townread on Athedia.
I think I have a read on Book Wombat, but hoping he'll say a little more.
Some feelings on Snowblaze, but not really sure.
I know the game hasn't gone on very long, but I feel like bladescape's been a little quieter than usual. With this many wagons early in a Day, I think he'd be poking at them to see if folk respond.

Kraken had voted Meta but moved his vote off of her to No Vote, right?
I feel a townlean towards him for wanting to let RNG decide the latern. Seems like the wolves would rather have it by vote on the off-chance one of them happens to get it.

[Metastachydium]

Do you think the other wagons with 3+ people are clear of wolves? Why did you not include the Flat or Meta wagon in this analysis?

Yeah. Were I a dog, as Taff seems to believe, my big happy wagon would be the best of places for an ugly, sneaky dog to squat! (Especially if that dog is Snow, the bus driver, whom Taff also spoke up against.)

Spoiler: Oil Lamp Vote Count

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Oil Lamp Vote Count
Kraken (2): Ilven, Kraken
Cazero (1): Cazero
Batcathat (1): Batcathat
Snowblaze (2): Snowblaze, Bladescape
Taffimai (2): Taffimai, Book
Cape (1): Cape
AvatarVecna (1): Olive_Sophia
flat_footed (1): AvatarVecna
Persolus (1): Benoojian
JeenLeen (1): JeenLeen
No Vote: Persolus, Flat_footed, MayanStar, Meta, Athedia

This is not correct, by the way. While I did offer to remove my vote for the Bearer of the Oil Lamp if the consensus becomes "we want it random", but never did so, on account of no such consensus having formed so far. My vote's still on you, Cape.

[Snowblaze]

Yeah. Were I a dog, as Taff seems to believe, my big happy wagon would be the best of places for an ugly, sneaky dog to squat! (Especially if that dog is Snow, the bus driver, whom Taff also spoke up against.)

I'm not even voting for you, how can I be bussing you?

(I'm aware that your post doesn't actually imply I am, just feel obliged to snark about it.)

Kraken, I don't think you need to worry, my mind is spiralling around Jeen in paranoia and confusion rn. I'll spare you all the rambling for now and just skim through Athedia and see if she deserves the towncred she's been getting.

- - - Updated - - -

Why would Cazero want the lantern so badly is my question.

I say Book Wombat should take the lantern.

- - - - Updated - - - -

As I don't wish to hold the lantern and people wish to leave it to chance I am striking my vote for lantern bearer.

Why Cazero over me or Taffimai who'd both also self-voted by the time you posted?

Also a couple of notes on forum etiquette: it's generally discouraged to edit old posts during games, except to cross out old votes - makes things a lot more confusing when rereading, for one thing.

And you don't need to add the "updated" tag to your posts, the forum will do that for you if you post twice in a row without anyone else posting (within a certain time period. An hour?) as this post may or may not demonstrate.

Have realised I'm tired and not focusing so will sleep and come back to the analysis tomorrow.

[JeenLeen]

If we read the rules very strictly, we know the number of wolves.
Luizeu, will you tell us if a strict read is correct?

- 20-25% of the players will be wolves, and depending on the number of players there will be some common PRs or neutrals

18 players.
18 * .25 = 4.5 maximum wolves
18 * .2 = 3.6 minimum wolves

If we take the narrator very literally this means exactly 4 wolves. My reasoning: to give us 3 wouldn't hit the 20% threshold, and to give us 5 would go above the 25% threshold.
However, unless Luizeu confirms, I think we should consider possibilities where 3, 4, or 5 wolves exist in case rounding up or down is allowed to give flexibility.

I know it's generally... uncouth, useless, or suspicious to speculate on number of wolves early game with no info, but it hit me we might know this so wanted to share in case votes swing my way late Day.

[Athedia]

I'm not even voting for you, how can I be bussing you?

(I'm aware that your post doesn't actually imply I am, just feel obliged to snark about it.)

Kraken, I don't think you need to worry, my mind is spiralling around Jeen in paranoia and confusion rn. I'll spare you all the rambling for now and just skim through Athedia and see if she deserves the towncred she's been getting.

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Why Cazero over me or Taffimai who'd both also self-voted by the time you posted?

Also a couple of notes on forum etiquette: it's generally discouraged to edit old posts during games, except to cross out old votes - makes things a lot more confusing when rereading, for one thing.

And you don't need to add the "updated" tag to your posts, the forum will do that for you if you post twice in a row without anyone else posting (within a certain time period. An hour?) as this post may or may not demonstrate.

Have realised I'm tired and not focusing so will sleep and come back to the analysis tomorrow.

Cool, it didn't used to do that. Been a few years.

And Cazero was the first one to do so. No other real reason, he just seemed a bit eager.

Trying to prove to you I am town seems fruitless honestly, I don't know anything about how any of you play the game and I am trying to learn. And I don't think answers of "I don't know... vibes" are especially satisfying or helpful.

[Luizeu]

18 players.
18 * .25 = 4.5 maximum wolves
18 * .2 = 3.6 minimum wolves

There are from 20% to 25%

20% - 3,6
21% - 3,7
22% - 3,9
23% - 4,1
24% - 4,3
25% - 4,5

[bladescape]

Half tempted to vote for Snow for 'Survival Solving' reasons.

[Illven]

So onto finding wolves.

Taffimai is sus to me, cause this is the first time I've seen her roleplay so heavily. In addition she stopped giving out songs when she started getting voted which I don't know strikes me as bitter?

Snowblaze is also sus. She mentioned the time we were both wolves recently (to shade the newbie), but she seems really burnt out which she got that time when we played wolves and I got the impression she really doesn't like playing as a wolf.

Persolus is super absent which they got pretty much as soon as they culted last game.

Meta's rp is sus. (I don't want fire, but the water experts will put it out.) Actually on a re-read.....hmmm.. it's just a meme....



I really don't wanna yeet Jeen since this is first game back and I imagine new baby is stressful.

I have a town read on Vecna for not posting. From what I've heard/experienced they tend to be an aggressive wolf.

A question for Kraken. You posted that the meta votes seemed band-wagony, you've claimed a desire to not start a bandwagon. But between Book, Ben and Jeen whose your top town read if any?

[Snowblaze]

Cool, it didn't used to do that. Been a few years.

And Cazero was the first one to do so. No other real reason, he just seemed a bit eager.

Trying to prove to you I am town seems fruitless honestly, I don't know anything about how any of you play the game and I am trying to learn. And I don't think answers of "I don't know... vibes" are especially satisfying or helpful.

Yeah, that's fair. I would say don't particularly worry about trying to prove you're town - just do whatever feels natural and if you are town I should figure that out eventually.

Half tempted to vote for Snow for 'Survival Solving' reasons.

It doesn't work if you say that's why you're doing it, though.

Also I'm just going to say this: I thought Taffimai's big post was pretty towny for her and am narrowing my eyes at the various suspicion and shade she's been getting.

Illven, RP is NAI at worst for her, I remember in... Afterlife 3? That sounds about right. In Afterlife 3 town!Taffimai posted solely in RP.

Speaking of Illven, she gets mild town points for providing reads unforced.

More thoughts once I've updated my vote count.

- - - Updated - - -

Taffimai 4: Persolus, flat_footed, CaoimhinTheCape, Illven
Metastachydium 3: Book Wombat, Benoojian, JeenLeen
Cazero 3: Snowblaze, Athedia, Metastachydium
Snowblaze 2: Cazero, Taffimai
bladescape 1: Batcathat
Batcathat 1: Olive_Sophia
BookWombat 1: AvatarVecna
flat_footed 1: bladescape
Not voting: MayanStar, Let'sGetKraken

And lantern votes:

Let'sGetKraken 2: Illven, Let'sGetKraken
Snowblaze 2: Snowblaze, bladescape
CaoimhinTheCape 2: Metastachydium, CaoimhinTheCape
Taffimai 2: Taffimai, Book Wombat
Cazero 1: Cazero
Batcathat 1: Batcathat
AvatarVecna 1: Olive_Sophia
flat_footed 1: AvatarVecna
Persolus 1: Benoojian
JeenLeen 1: JeenLeen
Not voting: Persolus, flat_footed, MayanStar, Athedia

Think that's accurate.

Okay, I just realised EOD is in about nine hours. My mind had been stuck in "it's fine, still early D1, decent amount of activity, no need to force myself to have reads" mode but that's not the mode it should be in rn.

And my top townread is also the lead wagon, joy. I don't particularly want to vote Meta since he hasn't played in a while but if it comes down to a choice between that and a fairly confident townread then dead Flower it is.

Or of course I could actually find a wolfread.

...yeah, that's improbable at best.

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Meta is null. Everything I've seen so far seems pretty in-character for a Meta of either alignment; if I squint the thinnest of townleans for not being afraid to antagonise people but once I stop squinting that read isn't anything I'm going to put weight on.

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Cazero is null-for-lack-of-AI-content-or-indeed-much-content-at-all. So that's the wagons dealt with (except me, but even I'm not crazy enough to ISO myself and besides checks role PM I'm not a wolf).

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MayanStar has zero posts so is null by definition.

Our one-posters are AV, Benoojian, flat_footed and Olive_Sophia; in each case the posts contain only random votes and in flat's case a song, so I can't really establish a read on any of them (unless potentially via wagonomics once we have actual flips.)

- - - Updated - - -

Two posters other than Cazero are Persolus and bladescape; I don't think inactivity is wolfy for the former, Illven, iirc he's been pretty quiet in past town games. So yeah, null reads and move on (shut up, tinfoil voice saying "town!bladescape would likely have actually voted me instead of saying he would", that is not a read you can make with any accuracy.)

[Snowblaze]

Wombat is null, I'm not even going to ISO Caoimhin until D1 is over, which leaves our last three-poster:

So onto finding wolves.

Taffimai is sus to me, cause this is the first time I've seen her roleplay so heavily. In addition she stopped giving out songs when she started getting voted which I don't know strikes me as bitter?

Snowblaze is also sus. She mentioned the time we were both wolves recently (to shade the newbie), but she seems really burnt out which she got that time when we played wolves and I got the impression she really doesn't like playing as a wolf.

Persolus is super absent which they got pretty much as soon as they culted last game.

Meta's rp is sus. (I don't want fire, but the water experts will put it out.) Actually on a re-read.....hmmm.. it's just a meme....

I really don't wanna yeet Jeen since this is first game back and I imagine new baby is stressful.

I have a town read on Vecna for not posting. From what I've heard/experienced they tend to be an aggressive wolf.

A question for Kraken. You posted that the meta votes seemed band-wagony, you've claimed a desire to not start a bandwagon. But between Book, Ben and Jeen whose your top town read if any?

Eh... I mean, I can't say I really get the logic here but I don't normally get town!Illven logic iirc so that's NAI. I do still think the fact of having this many reads fairly early without being pressed for them is towny but also that feels vaguely like reasons I've miscleared wolf!Illven in the past.

The only real point of concern is the last question. I can see why she chose those names (Meta wagon) but it's like... "who's your top townread between the person who's literally done nothing except random votes, the person who has three posts and is null by default for most people and the person who's one of the most active content producers and has been doing lots of solvy stuff".

Feels kind of like a leading question, but also this is thin and nitpicky and I don't really believe it.

Townlean, weak but not non-existent, with a note to re-evaluate
once we have flips, overall.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: Batcathat ISO

Show

Let's see, bladescape is always a good suspect (and sometimes a correct one).

I'm a little worried that the lantern's gonna turn out to be some sort of trap (maybe it attracts monsters?), but on the other hand I do love feeling special so let's go with Batcathat for now.

The fear of the lantern being a trap is the kind of paranoia I'd expect from town!BCH, though there's no reason a wolf couldn't be genuinely paranoid about it.

I think I used the wrong blue, so just in case that matters: Batcathat should have the lantern (because he apparently needs all the help he can get to see clearly ).

@Luizeu: Would using the wrong shade of blue (or red or whatever) mean a vote didn't count?

NAI, I guess.

As much as I enjoy the music numbers, something feels off about Taffimai's post. It's entirely gut at this point, but when I have the time I'll see if I can find any reason for it.

On a completely different note, I'm not sure whether or not I should suspect Cao for making a post count when there's literally no votes since the previous count. On one hand, it feels like seemingly useful filler, but on the other hand vote-counting is kind of Cao's thing, so maybe not?

Eh. I disagree with the Taffimai stance but think it's mildly towny for BCH, especially since (iirc) they were one of the first to state any suspicion. Having no reasons beyond "vague gut" isn't out of character for BCH; if I felt like it I could give that town points for not trying to overexplain or overjustify.

The Caoimhin thing is pure hedge but that's not wolfy for BCH.

Yeah, me too. Hopefully a good night's sleep will allow me to either dismiss it or put it into words.

Do you have any thoughts on my reaction to Cao's vote count?

Thin town points for actually caring about the Caoimhin thing. Looking forward to the Taffimai stuff once you've woken up.

Townlean, more for a collection of small things than for any one major point. Good enough for D1, anyway.

I just thought "wait, Luizeu has four posts? Why can't I remember anything he's done or who he's voting?" and then remembered. Lolme?

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Kraken's Meta unvote struck me as kind of odd when I first saw it, but on reflection I'm not convinced it's wolfy odd; I don't think Kraken is the sort of wolf to be more afraid of looking suspicious for bandwagoning (or, potentially, putting a partner in danger) than of drawing unwanted attention by unvoting.

I'm treating the RNG lantern proposal as NAI according to my general "don't read into mechanical talk" policy.

Which I guess leaves... null? I want to say thin townlean but I can't quite figure out why.

Meta ISO is already done, onwards and upwards.

[Batcathat]

Okay, I just realised EOD is in about nine hours. My mind had been stuck in "it's fine, still early D1, decent amount of activity, no need to force myself to have reads" mode but that's not the mode it should be in rn.

I think you're off by a day. According to what Luizeu posted on Discord, it should be like 31 hours until EoD.

[Snowblaze]

I think you're off by a day. According to what Luizeu posted on Discord, it should be like 31 hours until EoD.

Welp, can confirm. I guess I'm used enough to EODs being in the middle of the night that I counted the number of RL days for which the game has been ongoing for me instead of the actual 72 hours. Slightly less pressure to finish ISOing everyone, then, but I'll still get to it at some point today.

[MayanStar]

Greetings, everyone!
I am one known as MayanStar, the village artist.
As I am quite new around this beautiful little town, I am not familiar to the people surrounding me (yet). As a result of it, I am unable to be as effective to notice or point out unusual behavior or suspect acts. I do, however, still have my opinions:

In a situation where we can't be careful enough, I would not entrust Cazero to hold the lantern. Wouldn't make me feel comfortable knowing an arsonist is holding it.

I would prefer for Let'sGetKraken to have it, as I feel safer with the idea of an experienced person holding it.

[Illven]

The only real point of concern is the last question. I can see why she chose those names (Meta wagon) but it's like... "who's your top townread between the person who's literally done nothing except random votes, the person who has three posts and is null by default for most people and the person who's one of the most active content producers and has been doing lots of solvy stuff".

Feels kind of like a leading question, but also this is thin and nitpicky and I don't really believe it.

For what it's worth, my logic went.

"Kraken thinks the wagon on Meta is scummy."
"Kraken doesn't want to name who they think his a wolf due to fears of starting another bandwagon."
"Okay, if Kraken doesn't want to name who on the wagon they think is scummy, maybe they'll name who if any they think is a townie?"

And then just posted the names from the meta wagon.

[Snowblaze]

Hi Mayan!

Skimmed through Taffimai's ISO, and don't particularly feel like writing anything about it: I'm satisfied that my townread isn't me being an idiot but explaining exactly why that's the case doesn't seem productive rn. If anyone wants a Taffimai towncase or proof that Snowblaze isn't just trying to pocket the person suspecting her, feel free to ask.

So that leaves me with most of the game ISOd and no wolfreads.
Eh, one strong townread (Taffimai) and a couple of weaker ones (BCH, Illven) are about as good as I'm going to get at this point.

I do need to deal with Jeen, though, the current approach of a box labelled "Future Snowblaze's Problem" might work in the long run but probably isn't ideal.

Also just... need to actually talk to people, bounce ideas off them, find a wolfread... I don't know if the game hasn't got moving enough or if I'm just not yet emotionally invested enough. I hate the fact that the people wanting to wagon me to activate "survival solving" might actually have a point.

It'll probably fix itself by SOD2 if I live that long anyway, but some actual pressure will speed things up a lot.

- - - Updated - - -

For what it's worth, my logic went.

"Kraken thinks the wagon on Meta is scummy."
"Kraken doesn't want to name who they think his a wolf due to fears of starting another bandwagon."
"Okay, if Kraken doesn't want to name who on the wagon they think is scummy, maybe they'll name who if any they think is a townie?"

And then just posted the names from the meta wagon.

Yeah, that's what I thought and why I'm not actively suspecting you for it.

I know you don't want to kill Jeen today, but do you have a read on them? (And, you know, if so what is it, and preferably why?)

[Batcathat]

Skimmed through Taffimai's ISO, and don't particularly feel like writing anything about it: I'm satisfied that my townread isn't me being an idiot but explaining exactly why that's the case doesn't seem productive rn. If anyone wants a Taffimai towncase or proof that Snowblaze isn't just trying to pocket the person suspecting her, feel free to ask.

Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing that. I still haven't been able to put a finger on why I suspect Taff, but with no real reason to suspect anyone else, I'll probably keep my vote there so any reason not to would be potentially useful. As a bonus, it might give me a better grip on you, since I'm currently alternating between trusting you and suspecting you for an admittedly questionable reason.

Also, why wouldn't it be productive to attempt to explain why you townread someone who also happens to be the biggest wagon?

[Snowblaze]

Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing that. I still haven't been able to put a finger on why I suspect Taff, but with no real reason to suspect anyone else, I'll probably keep my vote there so any reason not to would be potentially useful. As a bonus, it might give me a better grip on you, since I'm currently alternating between trusting you and suspecting you for an admittedly questionable reason.

Also, why wouldn't it be productive to attempt to explain why you townread someone who also happens to be the biggest wagon?

Should have clarified that one, I meant productive to my solving process which is what I'm focusing on more than the gamestate in general at the moment. (Also it's hard to properly explain that sort of read, since it's more a general meta-y thing.)

Anyway, will get to the explanation. Also what's the questionable reason? (More out of curiosity than anything else.)

[bladescape]

Meta

For some reason I still thought there was a flat wagon. You all abandoned me!

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Two posters other than Cazero are Persolus and bladescape; I don't think inactivity is wolfy for the former, Illven, iirc he's been pretty quiet in past town games. So yeah, null reads and move on (shut up, tinfoil voice saying "town!bladescape would likely have actually voted me instead of saying he would", that is not a read you can make with any accuracy.)

I thought I told you not to point this out in wolfchat.

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Cazero wagon feels ~worse than either Taffi or Meta wagons tbh.

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Like both Taffi and Meta wagons have volunteered reasons but the Caz wagon is this meme wagon of "Don't give the arsonist fire!"

Unless I missed something. Possible.

- - - Updated - - -

Kraken for reasons.

[Snowblaze]

So... let's see. Wolf!Taffimai is friendly and fluffy and non-confrontational, she likes to float under the radar and avoid antagonising people and will be mainly focused on meming and bantering more than actual hard

Town!Taffimai is pretty much the opposite,
she'll be mainly focused on solving, not afraid to make controversial reads or point out anything that looks suspicious,
and there's sometimes a... sharpness to her tone that made me wolfread her hard for a game or two before I realised that my gut is unreliable in that respect and it's actually a towntell for her.

And... yeah, when you ask which of those descriptions fits the below the answer is pretty clear.

Spoiler: quote and comments

Show

I barely had any sleep last night, so unfortunately more composing will have to wait until I have had a nap. I promise I will finish a verse for each of you before the end of the weekend ❤️





Welcome and hello. As you probably know, we don't kill new people D1, but that also means that they sometimes get overlooked as nobody bothers to interact with them. Would you like to explain what made you pick Wombat for the lantern vote?

Poking at stuff, decent question. Not that towny in isolation, but an example of a general trend in this post.


If you were obliged to place a blue vote on someone other than yourself right now, who would you pick and why?
More poking.




I low-key hate you for posting first. The thing that first drew my attention was that the part about me felt slightly pockety, but then when I actually read the post it feels... over-explained? At first glance it's just a fun story that incorporates all players' names, but it actually isn't: Snow, Wombat, Bladescape, AV, and Cazero are mentioned twice, while Persolus, Batcathat, Athedia and Mayanstar aren't there at all. So there was more thought behind it than just going through the player list and then it becomes an actual justification for Meta's votes, which is unnecessary.
Valid, I think - disagree that it's AI for Meta but the thought process is easy to follow
Good on you for noticing Benoojian's vote, I had missed that. @Benoojian was your vote random or did you actually sus Meta?
More poking
Of my three counterwagons, I have no reads on Flat or Cazero yet, so I do prefer the Meta wagon, but I also don't want it to become so big that there's no viable counterwagon anymore, and I have another scumlean I want to pressure.
Clear stances, and a good reason for not voting Meta

What was your reason for this post Meta?

Yet more poking

Would you prefer they/them?

Cazero and I were the first two 3-person wagons, logically there should be wolves on them because wolves prefer to join rather than start wagons. I've colour-coded the names according to how scummy their vote felt to me.
This didn't make it into the quote but null is the highest level on those colour tiers iirc. So having a lot of suspects, which is very much "I don't care whose feathers I ruffle in the process of finding wolves".
Snow gets bonus scum points for being active without solving or pushing people to engage, the difference with last game is stark, so she gets my vote for the moment to see where that wagon goes and to activate her sense of survival solving.
Pretty harsh description of my play up to that point, though not false. Definitely not someone whose primary motivation is for me to be nice to her and not scrutinise her too closely. The bolded is probably the best example in this post of the sharp tone I mentioned earlier.

Not voting Caoimhin because he was D1ed last game.

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A note on Flat/Cazero: on the one hand joining in with my songs felt pockety, but on the other hand Flat usually tries not to draw attention to himself as wolf, so it's a wash. Contrasted by Cazero who just hasn't done anything AI yet.

Hope that helps, or at least makes some sense to someone who isn't me.

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Meta

For some reason I still thought there was a flat wagon. You all abandoned me!

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I thought I told you not to point this out in wolfchat.

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Cazero wagon feels ~worse than either Taffi or Meta wagons tbh.

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Like both Taffi and Meta wagons have volunteered reasons but the Caz wagon is this meme wagon of "Don't give the arsonist fire!"

Unless I missed something. Possible.

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Kraken for reasons.

Welp, sorry, thought it would make good distancing but someone could actually use it as a serious point against you... hopefully we can just play it off as a joke.

And yup, can confirm, the Cazero wagon has no serious reasons behind it. I'm literally there because OMGUS. But you've probably figured out my opinions on the merits of voting Taffimai and I didn't particularly feel like voting Meta before you brought him into the tie, which I now feel obliged to keep until such a point as I have an actual suspect.

[bladescape]

And yup, can confirm, the Cazero wagon has no serious reasons behind it. I'm literally there because OMGUS. But you've probably figured out my opinions on the merits of voting Taffimai and I didn't particularly feel like voting Meta before you brought him into the tie, which I now feel obliged to keep until such a point as I have an actual suspect.

I approve this content.

[Metastachydium]

Greetings, everyone!
I am one known as MayanStar, the village artist.

Hey, MayanStar!

As I am quite new around this beautiful little town, I am not familiar to the people surrounding me (yet).

Do you feel surrounded?

Like both Taffi and Meta wagons have volunteered reasons but the Caz wagon is this meme wagon of "Don't give the arsonist fire!"

True, but I don't switch around D1 votes.

[COLOR="#0000FF"]Kraken[COLOR] for reasons.

If you say science for me, though, I might make an exception. To strangle you.

And yup, can confirm, the Cazero wagon has no serious reasons behind it. I'm literally there because OMGUS. But you've probably figured out my opinions on the merits of voting Taffimai and I didn't particularly feel like voting Meta before you brought him into the tie, which I now feel obliged to keep until such a point as I have an actual suspect.

Interesting fact: the last time Snow wanted me tied for death (and maybe to live) rather than dead, she was a lyinng, dirty dog with an agenda. Batcathat might remember that one.

[Batcathat]

Anyway, will get to the explanation. Also what's the questionable reason? (More out of curiosity than anything else.)

Basically it goes like this: while you are very solvy as town, you are also very good at faking that as a wolf. So I didn't agree with Taff's suspicions based on that, since you being less solvy is potentially out of character, but probably not in a wolfy way. So far so good. But then you got quite solvy all of a sudden. As you alluded to, it could be that there was finally some stuff to go on. But the paranoid part of my brain is worried it might be a reaction to Taff saying you weren't solvy enough, which seems like a rather wolfy reaction.

I'll take your defense of Taff into consideration, though if I'm satisfied that raises the question of who to vote instead. Out of the other wagons, I'm leaning slightly town on Meta (for reasons as unsatisfyingly vague as my suspicions of Taff, I'm afraid) and have basically no opinion on Caz.

Of course, there's still time to try someone completely different, but I don't really have any reasons for that either (aside from possibly the above, which is... shaky, even for D1).

[Cazero]

So, the lynch looks like it's going to be between me, Meta and Taffi.
And I'm feeling like claiming something. I claim not vanillager, but not too important. I'm very shankable.

[Snowblaze]

So, the lynch looks like it's going to be between me, Meta and Taffi.
And I'm feeling like claiming something. I claim not vanillager, but not too important. I'm very shankable.

...yeah this is...

RIP three-way tie, unvote.

I don't think a wolf under pressure does this. Assuming that is the plan, you either just say "yeah, I'm a vanillager, I don't mind dying" and hope for WIFOM towncred for not trying to escape death or you start dropping hints that you're something powerful and shouldn't die in preparation for a claim if you have to make one.

This is the worst of all worlds: if you survive it forces you to produce something to back up the claim, and it does nothing to help you actually survive.

Counter-arguments welcome, but unless someone has a pretty good one I don't want to kill Cazero today.

Which... leaves me with a problem. Two of the three wagons are now people I really don't want dead, I'm still not enthusiastic about murdering Meta (though throwing shade at me for not doing that is a decent way to summon some of that enthusiasm if that's what you want, Meta), and I have no actual suspects...

I'll think about it and figure something out.

[Metastachydium]

...yeah this is...

RIP three-way tie, [color=red]unvote[color].

I don't think a wolf under pressure does this. Assuming that is the plan, you either just say "yeah, I'm a vanillager, I don't mind dying" and hope for WIFOM towncred for not trying to escape death or you start dropping hints that you're something powerful and shouldn't die in preparation for a claim if you have to make one.

This is the worst of all worlds: if you survive it forces you to produce something to back up the claim, and it does nothing to help you actually survive.

Counter-arguments welcome, but unless someone has a pretty good one I don't want to kill Cazero today.

I literally told basically the same yesterday (I've got the POWER, but you'll kill me if you'll kill me). How is this different?

(though throwing shade at me for not doing that is a decent way to summon some of that enthusiasm if that's what you want, Meta)

It would make your suffering exquisite.

[Cazero]

I literally told basically the same yesterday (I've got the POWER, but you'll kill me if you'll kill me). How is this different?

Reading your posts, I don't see any claim whatsoever without the context that there's a claim hidden in them. So that would be the difference.

[Athedia]

Reading your posts, I don't see any claim whatsoever without the context that there's a claim hidden in them. So that would be the difference.

I think this is the spot mentioned

Look, if you strike me down, Town will become less powerful than you can possibly imagine, but
1. it's not like I'm going to beg (even though do note that I'm too pretty to die);
2. you won't and, indeed, have no good reason to take my word for that; and
3. it's not like I'm going to claim at this point either. That would be dumb and probably bad for Town.

[Taffimai]

@Taffimai:

It's early D1, I'm not particularly engaged yet: haven't seen much worth poking at (until recently) and don't feel the need to force any half-formed impressions to become fully-formed. I'll get there.

(Also it's going to take a lot more than equal-fourth wagon with two votes to activate survival-solving mode, sorry. Wait no that wasn't an invitation aaaaaaaa)

Too late, mission "Activate Snow" success!

...I've lost the part of your posts where you townread Illven but I wanted to agree with it.

I assume the "kinda hate" means you wish you had the chance to say it first and/or are annoyed at having to think through the logic/possibilities I'm implying. (Either are legitimate town reactions. I'm basically stating that I'm trying to interpret your friendly/joking comment and that is the assumption I'm going with.)
If that's the case, you also feel some suspicion on Meta.

But you vote Snow. You give a good reason, I admit, but it seems weak. I could see it as wanting competing wagons, since if Meta gets to 5 votes then that kinda squashes discussion elsewhere, but I'm getting a scumbuddy feel on you & Meta.
This means absolutely nothing if Meta flips town, but if she flips wolf, a bad look for you.
In case I'm offline during discussion near end-of-day, y'all keep in mind that if we don't have much reason to really suspect one person over another, sometimes it's best to lynch the person whose death gives the town a lot of info. I think Meta's death only gives info if she flips wolf, but if that happens I think it'll give a lot of info.

You also give a very good reason not to kill Cazero today. I'll leave that as NAI for you and (even if you flip wolf) Cazero. Could see it as a wolf trying to protect a scumbuddy, but could also be a wolf that wants to "protect" a townie in order to set them up to get lynched later in the game after you flip. WIFOM is still hard to really parse on that to anything useful.

Yes that's what I meant
Why would this annoy me?
Given how badly we have communicated in the past, this is much appreciated
Yes. Meta was/is not the only person I'm sussing, and they had a sizeable wagon already

Ftr I also want to clear up that I was neutral on Cazero, but I believe you already cleared it up that you meant Caoimhin here.
Ngl I'm surprised/disappointed that nobody has asked me to explain why I sussed Caoimhin harder than Flat.

Do you think the other wagons with 3+ people are clear of wolves? Why did you not include the Flat or Meta wagon in this analysis?

I had forgotten to comment on this, but remembered upon reading Cao quote it.
I don't think Taffimai's assertion is true. That there could (or perhaps even statistically should) be wolves on her or Cazero's wagon is definitely true. But I question that wolves prefer to join rather than start wagons early D1.

Some players indeed like to lay back and stay off wagons, but that also makes them stand out. Many players join wagons when wolfing, there are plenty of "forum mafia wisdom" rules about it, like "third person on a town wagon is usually a wolf" or "first wagon to reach three contains at least one wolf within the four players". Those obviously are overly simplified, but it makes sense if you consider that it's harder for wolves to find things to suspect, and they don't want to stand out, so following a wagon that already has votes is easier and safer.

The reason I left the other two wagons off is that I developed the read when I saw I got a third vote (when the post I quoted from Caoimhin was made). The benefit of being an early wagon is that you know the people on you are voting a townie, so "who here looks the scummiest" is a good place to start solving. And since Cazero already had three at that time as well despite not having done anything yet, I thought about his votes as well. The other two three-person wagons only developed later, and at any rate, it's not particularly constructive to say "these 12 players in this 18-player game contain wolves", then you might as well consider everybody. Especially D1 you can't really look at everyone, so you have to narrow the field somehow (unless you're a wolf who like to keep their options open).

If we read the rules very strictly, we know the number of wolves.
Luizeu, will you tell us if a strict read is correct?

If I were balancing a game for 18 players, I'd do 4 wolves and an SK. That's how I'm interpreting the decimals in his reply as well.

Greetings, everyone!
I am one known as MayanStar, the village artist.
As I am quite new around this beautiful little town, I am not familiar to the people surrounding me (yet). As a result of it, I am unable to be as effective to notice or point out unusual behavior or suspect acts. I do, however, still have my opinions:

In a situation where we can't be careful enough, I would not entrust Cazero to hold the lantern. Wouldn't make me feel comfortable knowing an arsonist is holding it.

I would prefer for Let'sGetKraken to have it, as I feel safer with the idea of an experienced person holding it.

Are you voting Cazero purely for roleplay reasons, or do you think he's a better elimination than Meta or me?

Yeah, me too. Hopefully a good night's sleep will allow me to either dismiss it or put it into words.

Do you have any thoughts on my reaction to Cao's vote count?

Yeah, I wouldn't mind seeing that. I still haven't been able to put a finger on why I suspect Taff, but with no real reason to suspect anyone else, I'll probably keep my vote there so any reason not to would be potentially useful. As a bonus, it might give me a better grip on you, since I'm currently alternating between trusting you and suspecting you for an admittedly questionable reason.

Personally I think voting me for gut reasons D1 is fine, but that you only have that and a vague Snow townlean as reads is problematic. I'd try to see if the activation magic could work twice, but I've decided that I want to vote Meta more at this point.

Yeah. Were I a dog, as Taff seems to believe, my big happy wagon would be the best of places for an ugly, sneaky dog to squat! (Especially if that dog is Snow, the bus driver, whom Taff also spoke up against.)

Why are you singling me out here? I'll happily vote you if your wagon stays, especially since your posts haven't exactly gotten towny, but all I had said at the time was that your first post looked bad, and that your second one seemed to have no reason for existing* That's a far cry from "this is 100% scum", especially since I have plenty of other scumleans.

*although I had a slight expectation that it might have been joking acknowledgement after posting the first that you'd left out Batcathat, which then would have led me to ask why you didn't notice the others that weren't there either.

So onto finding wolves.

Taffimai is sus to me, cause this is the first time I've seen her roleplay so heavily. In addition she stopped giving out songs when she started getting voted which I don't know strikes me as bitter?

Snowblaze is also sus. She mentioned the time we were both wolves recently (to shade the newbie), but she seems really burnt out which she got that time when we played wolves and I got the impression she really doesn't like playing as a wolf.

Persolus is super absent which they got pretty much as soon as they culted last game.

Meta's rp is sus. (I don't want fire, but the water experts will put it out.) Actually on a re-read.....hmmm.. it's just a meme....

I really don't wanna yeet Jeen since this is first game back and I imagine new baby is stressful.

I have a town read on Vecna for not posting. From what I've heard/experienced they tend to be an aggressive wolf.

Snow burns out on wolfing if she's wolfed several times in a row, I'm not sure whether that would be the case this game. Persolus is a good observation, and there's probably a wolf among all the players sitting on 1-3 posts. For some bc it isn't normal for them to be that low, for others bc they've coasted as wolf before (which includes AV, she doesn't usually get aggressive unless there's a teammate being voted)

Also note how Meta's seven posts don't contain more content than Cazero's three.

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Snowblaze was a sorceress
she harnessed starlight's power
she feigned to be a druid
but her gaze was hard and cold

Did she want to save the missing girl
or gain the wizard's power?
Her staff shone through the darkness
looking for books, or traps, or gold?

Oooh-de-lally, ooh-de-lally,
For books or traps or gold!