The Wizard's Tower by Luizeu

[Metastachydium]

Persolus wasn't there at EOD afaict. Which means he didn't see the wagon on him until after votes were over.

Experience tells me it is trivially easy to read the forums without logging in.

Oh lmao I got double ninja'd.

Andin part by a FLOWER, no less! How does that make you feel?!

[Let'sGetKraken]

Also, I'm glad that we didn't actually end up getting rid of Persolus, it sucks to be surprised wagoned at the last minute while you're offline and not be able to do anything about it.

[Snowblaze]

I appear to have temporarily lost the ability to quote things during to storing up ten quotes and then deciding to reply to stuff live instead of doing wagonomics, lolme.

Meta: a) I wasn't particularly interested in touching Cazero, just in finding out what Athedia thinks about him, and b) I don't really get what you're trying to argue by saying Persolus could have been around but not logged in? It doesn't seem to help explain why Persolus either should or shouldn't be cleared for not showing up. Clarification appreciated!

Kraken, why don't you think Persolus is a wolf?

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Also, I'm glad that we didn't actually end up getting rid of Persolus, it sucks to be surprised wagoned at the last minute while you're offline and not be able to do anything about it.

Quoting problem fixed by means of posting stuff. And yes, agreed, I didn't feel great about voting Persolus but I thought it was better than the alternatives (lolme again).

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Turning things over in my mind.

Exactly one wolf in Persolus/Batcathat/bladescape, imo. (That or they're all town and I'm an idiot who should really know better than to make that sort of read by now.)

At most one wolf in Kraken/Meta/Cazero/Illven/Jeen/Caoimhin unless I'm badly wrong.

Which leaves... Benoojian/AvatarVecna/Olive_Sophia/Athedia/Book Wombat/flat_footed/MayanStar containing 1-2 wolves depending on how wrong I am on the other two tiers.

General question: who's the most likely wolf in each of those tiers?

Persolus/Caoimhin for the first two, the latter being just because "voted a wolf when it mattered" is my only real reason for townreading them. And the last one would be shooting at random pretty much so I won't comment.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I appear to have temporarily lost the ability to quote things during to storing up ten quotes and then deciding to reply to stuff live instead of doing wagonomics, lolme.

Meta: a) I wasn't particularly interested in touching Cazero, just in finding out what Athedia thinks about him, and b) I don't really get what you're trying to argue by saying Persolus could have been around but not logged in? It doesn't seem to help explain why Persolus either should or shouldn't be cleared for not showing up. Clarification appreciated!

Kraken, why don't you think Persolus is a wolf?

Because I'm skeptical that the last-minute wagon that materialized without much resistance was on a wolf, and that two of four D1 wagons happened to be on a wolf. I think it's more likely that one of Blade/BCH/you is a wolf that saw that there was little appetite for the existing wagons and tried to start or bolster a new one last-minute. I also think that Taffi wouldn't have been as comfortable letting it random if there were two wolves it could have hit instead of just one - I think she would absolutely have tried to unpair herself with Persolus and throw him under the bus. I think she trusted the odds and lost while trying to be as town as possible. Just my two cents; need to go back and have a dedicated read of D1.

[Metastachydium]

Meta: a) I wasn't particularly interested in touching Cazero, just in finding out what Athedia thinks about him,

Sorry. But hey, now you have my opinion as well!

and b) I don't really get what you're trying to argue by saying Persolus could have been around but not logged in? It doesn't seem to help explain why Persolus either should or shouldn't be cleared for not showing up. Clarification appreciated!

Just what I said. He could have saved himself just as easily as Taff or I, but didn't. That said, I conceded that said conclusion is dependent on his knowing he's even on the chopping block. That's all.

Exactly one wolf in Persolus/Batcathat/bladescape, imo. (That or they're all town and I'm an idiot who should really know better than to make that sort of read by now.)

At most one wolf in Kraken/Meta/Cazero/Illven/Jeen/Caoimhin unless I'm badly wrong.

Which leaves... Benoojian/AvatarVecna/Olive_Sophia/Athedia/Book Wombat/flat_footed/MayanStar containing 1-2 wolves depending on how wrong I am on the other two tiers.

General question: who's the most likely wolf in each of those tiers?

I like Blade the least in the first one (Persolus is null-to-wannatrust; Batcathat's a firm I don't know); no idea in the second; and I don't like AV's silence or how brisk Benoojian is in the third, but I'm just generally wary of AV so…

[Snowblaze]

I can construct a decent case against Benoojian based on the Philosopher's Stone thing. Tried writing it up just now, and realised it pretty much exemplified all the flaws in my process: projecting my own reactions and responses onto others and finding them suspicious if I can't follow their logic. So I'm not going to do that.

Instead I'll just poke him for reads, since he hasn't actually given any yet: Benoojian, who do you suspect? Who do you think is town?

[Batcathat]

Exactly one wolf in Persolus/Batcathat/bladescape, imo. (That or they're all town and I'm an idiot who should really know better than to make that sort of read by now.)

At most one wolf in Kraken/Meta/Cazero/Illven/Jeen/Caoimhin unless I'm badly wrong.

Which leaves... Benoojian/AvatarVecna/Olive_Sophia/Athedia/Book Wombat/flat_footed/MayanStar containing 1-2 wolves depending on how wrong I am on the other two tiers.

General question: who's the most likely wolf in each of those tiers?

As you might expect, my answer for most likely wolf in the first tier is blade. Aside from what I've already said (and trusting myself), Persolus did vote a wolf and while that certainly doesn't clear him (bussing and/or bad timing is very possible), it should count for something. All three of us being town is also quite possible, so while I think either blade or Persolus flipping wolf pretty much clears the other, the opposite isn't true.

I'll have to think about the other tiers.

[Illven]

I'm about to head to work.

For the first tier, I re-read Revenge, and Persolus is right, they got busy d2. I need more time to turn it over if I think they are more likely a wolf then blade. So instead I think bat is the towniest there.
For the second tier, I'm also alil stuck. Either Jeen, or Cao. I have reasons to town read everyone else on that list.
For the third tier, Ben as already stated.

[Snowblaze]

Because I'm skeptical that the last-minute wagon that materialized without much resistance was on a wolf, and that two of four D1 wagons happened to be on a wolf. I think it's more likely that one of Blade/BCH/you is a wolf that saw that there was little appetite for the existing wagons and tried to start or bolster a new one last-minute. I also think that Taffi wouldn't have been as comfortable letting it random if there were two wolves it could have hit instead of just one - I think she would absolutely have tried to unpair herself with Persolus and throw him under the bus. I think she trusted the odds and lost while trying to be as town as possible. Just my two cents; need to go back and have a dedicated read of D1.

Mmm. That's a pretty reasonable interpretation actually - I think a wolf trying to save Taffimai is more likely to have pushed the existing Meta wagon rather than tried to start a new one, though.

Also re: "materialised without resistance" - there were only a limited number of people around and a limited time period, I doubt resistance would have materialised regardless of Persolus's alignment.

And on Taffimai's actions, we don't really know enough of the picture to deduce her reasons for not voting Persolus. Given wolf!Persolus it could be that he had a more powerful role than her and she was willing to die to save him, or partners were positioned to look better off her flip than his, or she just couldn't bring herself to condemn a partner who was afk without his consent, or she was willing to roll the dice on getting a Meta flip and saving them both, or...

But yes, you do also raise a good point: in a world where Taffimai snipes town!Persolus EOD1 she probably looks very suspicious D2, whereas if RNG kills town!Persolus or town!Meta she's not particularly likely to be wagoned.

Actually I need to go reread her EOD, ideas have arrived.

Sorry. But hey, now you have my opinion as well!

Apology accepted and opinion appreciated (why can't opinion begin with an a so I can have my perfect alliteration?)

[Luizeu]

Window
AV (1) Benoojian
Persolus (3) Flat-footed, Jeenleen, bladescape
bladescape (2) Batcathat, Meta
Snowblaze (1) Illven

Lantern
Meta (1) Benoojian
Illven (1) Snowblaze
Jeenleen (4) Meta, bladescpe, Jeenleen, Olive_sophia

Object
Table - Benoojian
Shelf - BookWombat
Machine - Cazero
BatcatHat - skeleton
Earring - Av
Red potion - Illven
Cauldron- flat_footed
Crystal Ball - Bladescape
Blue potion: Snowblaze

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(why can't opinion begin with an a so I can have my perfect alliteration?)

Assessment?

[Snowblaze]

...because he only posted once?

Just bringing this up again, my gut says it's wolf reacting to unexpected pressure on a partner.

Anyway, she's around finishing her verses and then...

Ok the count checks out, I haven't skipped anybody

My soul is ready!

I disagree

LET IT RAND!

...this.

No sign she cares about self-preservation; she's made her peace with death, at the very least.

Three reasons a wolf does that:
a) she's faking it for towncred
b) she just doesn't want to play any more
c) she knows her team will be in a better position after her death.

c) is making me very paranoid.

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Thanks Luizeu, "assessment" works pretty well. Pretty sure you missed my claiming the blue potion a while back.

[Athedia]

Yeah I claimed nothing because I am a bit to wary of all the liquids in a wizards workshop. No good can come of them. I would have taken the earring but it was already claimed.


question about your b)

Does Taff dislike playing wolf? and how would c) work in this case? Unless one of the votes for her was a bus.

[Persolus]

Sorry for the lack of reads have realised I made poor decisions over the past while and am needing to fix them.

Would you like me to mech-confirm myself as town?

[Benoojian]

Benoojian, why did you vote Meta D1?

I was just trying to create a 3-way tie.

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Reads(all pretty weak)

Batcathat is giving me wolf vibes

Illven strikes me as townie, even if they are ridiculously wrong

Snowblaze is north of null, but just barely

Kraken is probably town

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There is exactly one person in the game that I wrote that I wanted to steal the Philosopher's Stone for, I had hoped it would go unnoticed otherwise

[Cazero]

That philosopher stone thing could be a coincidence. It's a stereotypical alchemist thing, and the recruitment thread has you listed as alchemist.

[JeenLeen]

Sorry for the lack of reads have realised I made poor decisions over the past while and am needing to fix them.

Would you like me to mech-confirm myself as town?

Since you will probably be lynched otherwise, my answer is YES.

And, in case I'm really off about when EOD is, I'll throw a vote to bladescape for now but am planning to move it back should your claim be insubstantial.

[Illven]

Sorry for the lack of reads have realised I made poor decisions over the past while and am needing to fix them.

Would you like me to mech-confirm myself as town?

Right now, I would say it depends. How sure are you that you'll be around closer to end of day?

[JeenLeen]

For what it's worth, from D1 vote patterns I feel iffy about Persolus, bladescape, and to a lesser degree Kraken.

From just vibes, I feel off about Persolus and BCH. (blade hasn't posted enough to really give me strong vibes, and any bad vibes I got from him is conflated with vote patterns.)

I haven't had time to think on the game to see who I trust, if anyone. Some things point towncred to Kraken, but as he himself pointed out, they were also good moves for a wolf to make for towncred.
I think my townleans from D1 are still there, but those were weak and none of them are up for lynch anyway.

On a non-analysis note: for RP and curiousity, I kinda want to pick up that bucket of mysterious liquid, but... well, latern is probably the better play.

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And by 'vote patterns', I don't just mean who voted for who, but who got voted by who.

[Athedia]

Yeah no the vibes on "strange mysterious liquid" are kinda rancid. JeenLeen can take the lantern. Going to wait to see how the yeet vote develops more though.

[Benoojian]

Batcathat

Jeenleen

[Batcathat]

Would you like me to mech-confirm myself as town?

Normally I'd advise against it unless necessary since it'll probably put a giant NK target on your back, but when you've already said this much (and assuming you're not a wolf) I suppose the difference between "has been mech cleared" and "can be mech cleared" is fairly slim from a wolf perspective, so... probably? Might be a good idea to listen for more opinions on the matter, just in case.

I do have a bad feeling you being cleared might turn the wagons in blade and myself, but I suppose that's my headache.

[Persolus]

Since you will probably be lynched otherwise, my answer is YES.

And, in case I'm really off about when EOD is, I'll throw a vote to bladescape for now but am planning to move it back should your claim be insubstantial.

...i'm going to point out, before i do claim - which will still be in a bit - that only 3 people are voting for me, and there are 17 people.

3 people isn't as big of a deal in this game as others.

[also I have already claimed, you all just missed it ]

[JeenLeen]

It does seem odd how few people have voted. And makes it too easy for wolves to slide under the radar.

[Persolus]

It does seem odd how few people have voted. And makes it too easy for wolves to slide under the radar.

[yes i know i'm part of that problem, but I've just been inactive in general]

[Illven]

..... is your hint in your first post?

[Persolus]

..... is your hint in your first post?

Well that would be telling now wouldn't it?

[Illven]

Well if I'm picking up what you're putting down. I think I'll drop you from my list of susses.

It's a bold hint to make like this.

[JeenLeen]

Too little talking.
While I did find Persolus suspicious, I guess I'll stay off him. And nothing much is coming of bladescape.
Never got a good taste for Metastachydium even after D1 ended. ::munches... kiwi? Or something else plant-based::

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Reminder to self: the quiet could be wolves are happy with the wagons and not wanting to shuffle things up. Could also be they are very unhappy but don't want to draw attention to themselves but instead want bored townies to poke things and get it shaken up. Be cautious in case I'm doing the latter.

[bladescape]

Vote not changing until I see the clue or the claim. (Haven't reread rn because I'm posting this while doing pre-work prep.)

If Persolus town my sus goes predictably to BCH. But tbh I don't understand Taffi's play if persolus town and she was around for eod. Sniping might have made her more sus but it's just better overall for info hiding to have a town guarantee flip.

Meta is not a wolf I'm ~Pretty~ confident with how d1 went down around Taffi.

@Snow:
1 Persolus pending claim.
2 I don't think any are wolf but Jeen if I had to pick one.
3 OS probably for very weak reasons.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Alright, first reaction to the vote count from the end of Day 1

Last Vote Count

Metastachydium (4) Book Wombat, Benoojian, JeenLeen, Taffimai
Snowblaze (1) Cazero
Cazero (3) Athedia, Metastachydium, MayanStar
Taffimai (4) Persolus, flat-footed, Caoimhim, Illven
Batcathat (1) Olive_Sophia
Book Wombat (1) AvatarVecna
Persolus (4) bladescape, Snowblaze, BatcatHat, Let'sGetKraken

Is that Taffimai is unlikely a wolf with Meta or Persolus.

If it's a Taff/Meta pair then the two could easily have moved their votes together on Town!Persolus or at the very least Wolf!Taff could have voted with Wolf!Meta so that Cazero was in danged instead of Wolf!Meta.

If it's a Taff/Persolus pair, then Wolf!Persolus could have moved from Taff without any suspicion by saying "yeah, that was a random vote" and instead of having two wolf wagons tied for the leave, Taff could be safe with a 5th vote on Meta or a 4th on Cazero instead.

I will not vote for either Meta or Persolus today. I will not vote Illven either because of the Taff vote, though I don't think anyone was considering Illven.

Batcathat, flat_footed, JeenLeen, AvatarVecna, Olive_Sophia contains at least one wolf. Illven, Snowblaze, Bladescape, Benoojian, MayanStar contains no wolves. Oh dearie me, it seems I've gone and switched some names around, but I can't quite remember which! Perhaps some of you can use these tangled hints to tease out the truth?

The hard facts we get from that is that at least one wolf is in [Batcathat, flat_footed, JeenLeen, AvatarVecna, Olive_Sophia, Illven, Snowblaze, Bladescape, Benoojian, MayanStar].

Implied that there are two lists of these 10 players, split evenly into 5 and 5? 5 of those names would be confirmed not wolves, at least 1 in the other group would be Wolves.

Copying from Snow's early post of who isn't in either list: Cazero, Metastachydium, Persolus, Let'sGetKraken, Athedia, CaoimhinTheCape, Book Wombat

During Night, I wrote that Kraken was town because I misread something in my skimming.
I forget what exactly I misunderstood, but upon rereading some votes moves I realize this isn't the case. Kraken could very much be a wolf if Persolus is Town. Makes sense a wolf wouldn't want to vote Meta late-Day lest they obviously be saving Taffimai, but a wolf could try to get another wagon going in hopes it saves their scumbuddy and a townie is the one to do the swing vote and thus gets mislynched.

If Persolus flips wolf, Kraken is confirmed Town.

Why didn't Taffimai vote Persolus and survive? She was online close to Day's end--her last post was only about 30 minutes prior to Day's end--and she could have put her vote from Meta to Persolus so that he had 5 votes. It'd make sense as self-defense, so wouldn't necessarily even add extra heat to her. I could see it to try to lead someone to make the conclusion I'm making now to get the townies to lynch Town!Persolus, but I think it more likely they are both wolves cursing their bad luck D1.

In Persolus' favor, he never moved his vote off Taffimai. A wolf easily could have without looking too bad. BUT if he was offline until the move was critical, then moving it then would draw attention to him once Taffimai flips or attention to her once he flips, so I can see the wolfteam deciding it's better to distance rather than couple those two together.

Wolflean on bladescape, but I'd rather test Persolus. If Persolus flips wolf, blade is almost certainly Town. If Persolus flips wolf, then I'd look at blade next.
Also, he joke-claiming scumbuddy with Taffimai... hits me as wolf in a WIFOM way as "a wolf wouldn't do that joke, so of course blade is Town" so wolf!blade does it to look towny by looking too wolfy to be a wolf. (I think I phrased that right.)

I don't really like the logic in this post. The Persolus/Taff as wolf/wolf situation only comes up if one Wolf left a random vote on another wolf throughout the whole day, instead of moving it. Even if Persolus wasn't around late in the day to switch votes, the whole situation is avoidable.

And in general, this post feels like it's laying out the logic of "Persolus gives us the most info, so let's go there. If he's a wolf, great but if not my next targets are lined up as blade or Kraken."

Exactly one wolf in Persolus/Batcathat/bladescape, imo. (That or they're all town and I'm an idiot who should really know better than to make that sort of read by now.)

At most one wolf in Kraken/Meta/Cazero/Illven/Jeen/Caoimhin unless I'm badly wrong.

Which leaves... Benoojian/AvatarVecna/Olive_Sophia/Athedia/Book Wombat/flat_footed/MayanStar containing 1-2 wolves depending on how wrong I am on the other two tiers.

General question: who's the most likely wolf in each of those tiers?

Per my skepticism of a Taff/Persolus team, Batcathat or blade is a wolf over Persolus.

I don't like Jeen's post (as mentioned above in this post) and Cazero could be a wolf, no opinion either way. Kraken feels town to me, between his Day 1 vote (or lack thereof) mattering, Illven and Meta get town reads for now based on Taff stuff from Day 1 (voting for taff and being voted by taff). I am me, and am not Wolf.

I don't have much of an opinion on your last group, though I want to look at flat more (apparently he was voting Taff early in the day but moved?) and a tentative town read on Athedia based on Day 1 vibes.

---

Well if I'm picking up what you're putting down. I think I'll drop you from my list of susses.

It's a bold hint to make like this.

Agreed, though he was not on my list of susses.

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Vote: bladescape for not being a town read and to put a different wagon in the lead.

Vote: Illven for the lantern, not quite sure if there's a reason that everyone lined up behind Jeen.

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Window
AV (1) Benoojian
Persolus (2) Flat-footed, bladescape
bladescape (3) Batcathat, Meta, CaoimhintheCape
Snowblaze (1) Illven
Batcathat (1) Benoojian
Metastachydium (1) Jeenleen

Lantern
Meta (1) Benoojian
Illven (2) Snowblaze, CaoimhintheCape
Jeenleen (6) Meta, bladescpe, Jeenleen, Olive_sophia, Athedia, Benoojian