WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[flat_footed]

Spoiler: Recruitment Thread

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Success depends on forethought, dispassionate calculation
of probabilities, accounting for every stray variable.

As the Republic grew, so did its needs. Scouts spread east, seeking territory and wealth, in the dry and merciless expanse of the Mojave Desert. They returned with tales of a city untouched by the warheads that had scorched the rest of the world and a great wall spanning the Colorado River. The NCR mobilized its army and set it east to occupy the Hoover Dam and restore it to working condition. But across the Colorado, another society had arisen under a different flag. A vast army of slaves, forged in the conquest of 86 tribes: Caesar's Legion. Four years have passed since the Republic held the Dam, just barely, against the Legion's onslaught. The Legion did not retreat. Across the River, they gathered strength. Campfires burned, training drums beat. Through it all, the New Vegas Strip has stayed open for business.

This game will have Bastard elements. You have been warned, or maybe you haven't. Truth is, the game was rigged from the start.

Basic Mechanics

This is a game of Werewolf/Mafia.

Prior to the game starting, I will randomly assign roles to players. The role you receive will define your win condition and what powers you have (if any). If you are a member of the Wolf team, you will start the game in secret contact with other members, which you can use to discuss strategy without being discovered.

The game will start on a Day Phase which will last 48 hours. During any Day Phase, all players can vote for who they wish to "lynch" (remove from the game) that phase. Your vote is not set in stone once made, and you can recast your vote at any time provided that the phase has not ended. To cast your vote, please bold and color in red the name of the person you wish to vote. It doesn't have to be their forum name proper, or some official "I vote [name]", as long as it's recognizable who you're voting and the formatting has been done. If you are changing your vote, go back and cross out your old one like so. If more than one legal vote exists, the most recent of them will be considered.

Examples of acceptable voting:

flat_footed
ff
flat

At the end of the day phase, I'll tally votes. Whichever wagon has the most votes is lynched and can no longer participate in the game publicly or privately. If there was a tie between who had the most votes, whoever reached that vote total first will be the one removed from the game.

After a Day Phase ends, the game will shift to the Night Phase; all Night Phases will last 24 hours. If you possess a power that lets you target somebody during the Night Phase, this is the time to use it. During this time, the Wolf team will be able to select a player to be killed (as well as using whatever other powers they might have as well). After a Night Phase ends, the game will shift to the Day Phase once more.

This cycle will repeat until Town eliminates all the Wolves, or the Wolves can no longer be stopped from destroying the Town.

Private Communication

This game will make use of a Discord server, which players can use to communicate power usage to the narrator, and which wolves can use to conspire together. While the game is active, players may not communicate about the game privately except through this Discord server. You aren't forbidden from talking to other players in private at all, but that discussion shouldn't be in regards to the game. All discussion of the game should take place in the game thread or the discord server.

Each day phase will last approximately 48 hours. Players can name their lynch targets by marking the name red, and cancel votes by crossing them out. If multiple votes are recorded by the same person, the latest legal vote will be counted. If there is a tie, the person who reached that vote count first will be lynched.

Each night phase will last approximately 24 hours. The Wolves will have a collective Night Kill, which will be performed by one of their number. If there is no single wolf chosen to perform this kill, one wolf will be chosen at random.

Players

1. Athedia
2. bladescape
3. MerelBlackbird
4. AvatarVecna
5. Illven
6. Lentrax
7. Persolus
8. Snowblaze
9. Cazero
10. Book Wombat
11. Let'sGetKraken
12. CaoimhinTheCape
13. Cuthalion
14. corncobweb
15. JeenLeen
16. Lady Serpentine
17. BatCatHat
18. Murska

The Lucky 38 casino towers over the New Vegas Strip, mysterious and impenetrable to visitors and locals alike.

The neon lights stabbed through the fading rays of sunset, bathing the landscape in an eerie glow. A singular building dominates your vision and scatters the growing shadows. Surrounded by barren wastelands, it's hard to believe such opulence still exists in this world, when so many have to fight for survival every minute of every day. It's obvious the owner of the Lucky 38, and others like them, care only for the caps in your pocket and to hell with the rest of you. Instinctively, your hand clutches at your pack even tighter, and you can see similar thoughts and motions in the wearied faces of others in the casino.

Still, the lights and sounds fade into a siren call of possibility. Scattered whoops and cheers sound through the air as others believe they're well on their way to hitting it big. The thought of an easy life without fear, without want pulls at the edges of your mind.Try your luck, it says. Someone has to win, so why not you? As desire and hope play across your faces, no one notices a few glances exchanged by those hidden among you. They've played this game many, many times before. It's simple enough to fall in with road weary travelers and guide their plodding steps towards the lights in the distance. All too soon, what meager possessions the travelers brought with them will be forfeit, as will be their lives. Every game, every machine, subtly skewing the odds ever in the favor of The House, until they owe far more than they've brought with them.

A massive robot wheels over to you all quickly, coming to a screeching halt just before running a few of you over. An overly enthusiastic cartoon face with a huge smile flickers on a TV screen. His movements are anything but fluid, and he jerks around as he looks over the group. A mechanical voice, dripping with programmed optimism, bursts from its speakers.

Congratulations, today's Lucky Number is 6!

Day 1 has begun and will end in ~60 hours.

[Snowblaze]

tfw you're the first to reach thread and your first post is "so I am not going to have much time for this game..."

Seriously, though, I know I say that every game but this time it's actually true. (And I know I say that every game but...)

And Let'sGetKraken for killing me (twice!) in Time Warp.

[Book Wombat]

The lucky number may be 6, but the unlucky one is 17!
Batcathat

[Murska]

I am not a six, I am a number! Wait, how did it go again...

Hi all, been a while

[AvatarVecna]

*waves a gun around*

Who keeps giving me these? This isn't funny. I'm gonna blame...Athedia, she always has a fun reaction to getting unfairly blamed.

[Batcathat]

Let's start with AvatarVecna for killing me last game (at the behest of basically everyone, but still. )

Also, I wonder if the unusually long day is related to the lucky number?

[Let'sGetKraken]

tfw you're the first to reach thread and your first post is "so I am not going to have much time for this game..."

Seriously, though, I know I say that every game but this time it's actually true. (And I know I say that every game but...)

And Let'sGetKraken for killing me (twice!) in Time Warp.

And Snowblaze, as revenge for being shot twice and surviving just as long as me.

Plus, it's tradition.

- - - Updated - - -

Let's start with AvatarVecna for killing me last game (at the behest of basically everyone, but still. )

Also, I wonder if the unusually long day is related to the lucky number?

Might just be a day 1 thing.

[Batcathat]

Might just be a day 1 thing.

Entirely possible, and judging by the roll the lucky number could've been 0, which seems... problematic if it regulates the length of day. I just like pondering bastard stuff when there's nothing else to do.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Entirely possible, and judging by the roll the lucky number could've been 0, which seems... problematic if it regulates the length of day. I just like pondering bastard stuff when there's nothing else to do.

Oooh, look at you once more cleverly using Forum mechanics to convey or discover information. Definitely not a boon for that numbered player, which is what I was thinking. Interesting.

[Cazero]

Hello, his name is Persolus and he thinks we shouldn't vote him first round. But his number came up.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

One person out of the group looks around the casino, almost as if they're surprised to see themselves here. They look out of place with the usual gamblers here who are either suave and confident with their piles of caps or desperate with the few they have left.

They tip their straw cowboy hat in greeting and turn to the robot. "Lucky number 6 you say? I guess it ain't exactly my lucky number, I've always favored twelve. But I'm sure it would suit one of us here." They look over to Lentrax.

"Well, it is a pleasure to meet y'all. At least, I hope it will be." She folds her arms. "You see, it's not exactly easy out there. The Legion, Khans, Boomers, and all the smaller raiders causing trouble for people just trying to get by." They eye the group, trying to size everyone up. "Now I'm no good at seeing someone's allegiance, at least, not until they show their cards." She pulls up a chair at one of the tables. "But let's see I can't at least pick out what everyone's skilled at."

They nod to the robot. "Lucky number or no... care to deal us in?"




Ah, I see other people have mentioned the lucky number. It looks like it's meant to be something 0-7, so I'm wondering if hitting 7 means something? I had originally assumed it was player number, but seems like that's not the case.

*waves a gun around*

Who keeps giving me these? This isn't funny.

That isn't loaded... is it?

Is that an actual gun/shot that you can use? Or just a joke?

For now... I'll set my sights on Let's Get Kracken


Votes
Kraken (2): Snowblaze, Cape
Bat (1): Book
Athedia (1): AV
AV (1): BatCatHat
Snowblaze (1): Kracken
Persolus (1): Cazero
No Vote: Athedia, bladescape, MerelBlackbird, Illven, Lentrax, Persolus, Cuthalion, corncobweb, JeenLeen, LadySerpentine, Murska

[Illven]

*Hikes up the turtle shell*

Well Kraken ruined my artistic representation of them having 4 tentacles each with the strength to crack a tank in half. Thankfully the rng agrees that I was insulted.

Let's get Kraken

[Athedia]

Well now I don't *want* to give you a fun reaction.

But the cards land how they may and the House always wins.

Speaking of the cards AvatarVecna would you like to be dealt in?

🂡🃊

- - - Updated - - -

Wow ninjaed a bunch there, that's what happens when you go down the rabbit hole of researching alt codes instead of just posting. I guess would *any* of you like to be dealt in?

[Lentrax]

The fedora is a nice one, as they go out in the Mojave. Enough to keep the sun out of the eyes, and fashionable enough to only be slightly looked down upon by the White Gloves. The underside is briefly lit as I light up a cigarette, and put the lighter away in the inside pocket of my suit.

And while I might be working, I’m not above a little fun.

After all, it’s Vegas, right? So I order a whiskey, head over to a blackjack table and toss a couple chips down.

And then I see AvatarVecna waving a gun around, and make a mental note to keep away from them. Anyone crazy enough to wave a gun around in Vegas has probably been around one too many irradiated hot spots in the desert.

[Athedia]

Lentrax would you like to play some blackjack? I'll get it going soon, just waiting to see if we have more interested parties.

[JeenLeen]

This game will have Bastard elements. You have been warned, or maybe you haven't. Truth is, the game was rigged from the start.

Alerting everybody in case someone didn't notice this. Be cautious.

On the #6: if it means anything... I don't think it's tied to the 60 hour day. I reckon 60 hours is the normal 48 + a little bit extra, to make the Day/Night end cycles align with flat_footed's real life preference.
On the other hand, I guess it probably does mean something and perhaps tied to the bastard mechanic or, since it says "game was rigged" maybe we can use it as a clue to find the wolves.


I usually like to have something to really vote on when doing my opening post, but nothing glares at me besides the early Day wagons. So quoting some votes.

For now... I'll set my sights on Let's Get Kracken


Votes
Kraken (2): Snowblaze, Cape
Bat (1): Book
Athedia (1): AV
AV (1): BatCatHat
Snowblaze (1): Kracken
Persolus (1): Cazero
No Vote: Athedia, bladescape, MerelBlackbird, Illven, Lentrax, Persolus, Cuthalion, corncobweb, JeenLeen, LadySerpentine, Murska

Quoting Cao for the votecount.

*Hikes up the turtle shell*

Well Kraken ruined my artistic representation of them having 4 tentacles each with the strength to crack a tank in half. Thankfully the rng agrees that I was insulted.

Let's get Kraken

Then Illven puts a 3rd vote on Kraken.
If Kraken or Illven are wolves, could it mean something? Early Day wagons usually dissipate, so maybe trying to bus a scumbuddy early on but planning to move vote later? An early wagon to yield analysis can be useful, but I'll keep my eye on this.

Cao had put a second vote on Kraken. Eh... I kinda feel similar to how I do about Illven's 3rd vote, but a 2-vote wagon just helps analysis get going.

Well now I don't *want* to give you a fun reaction.

But the cards land how they may and the House always wins.

Speaking of the cards AvatarVecna would you like to be dealt in?

🂡🃊

- - - Updated - - -

Wow ninjaed a bunch there, that's what happens when you go down the rabbit hole of researching alt codes instead of just posting. I guess would *any* of you like to be dealt in?

Mostly quoting this since it's a vote before I posted. (Not quoting, but noting Lentrax also voted AV.)
But, honestly, slight townlean here. I think a wolf would double-check more who posted while they were posting.

Entirely possible, and judging by the roll the lucky number could've been 0, which seems... problematic if it regulates the length of day. I just like pondering bastard stuff when there's nothing else to do.

And I think a townlean to BCH for finding & posting the dice roll flat made.

---

I'm not liking the Kraken wagon, even though it's early Day so it probably doesn't mean anything.

*waves a gun around*

Who keeps giving me these? This isn't funny. I'm gonna blame...Athedia, she always has a fun reaction to getting unfairly blamed.

::squints::
Got a theory. I'll put a 3rd chip on this pile. AvatarVecna.

[Athedia]

Jeenleen would you like to be dealt in?

[Let'sGetKraken]

Jeenleen would you like to be dealt in?

Not nice for the house to ignoring a customer. Deal me in.

[JeenLeen]

Jeenleen would you like to be dealt in?

This... probably isn't a power usage, but I'd like to rule it out. Yeah, deal me in. Maybe I'll get lucky and draw Exodia on turn 1.

[Lentrax]

Lentrax would you like to play some blackjack? I'll get it going soon, just waiting to see if we have more interested parties.

I'm good for a couple caps worth of hands. Sure.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Guess I can be in as well.

Is this a mechanic thing or is it just for fun?

[flat_footed]

I don't think it's tied to the 60 hour day. I reckon 60 hours is the normal 48 + a little bit extra, to make the Day/Night end cycles align with flat_footed's real life preference.

This is correct. The 60 hours is simply for my own convenience. Future days/nights will be closer to the normal 48/24 cycle.

[Batcathat]

Ah, that's one not particularly likely theory out the window then. I don't really have any more ideas about the lucky number at the moment, other than that zero or seven being the most likely candidates for "something happens".

Having two wagons this early into the game feels very quick, though I have no idea what (if anything) it might mean.

[Illven]

Puts Squirtle on the field on turn 1. Attached a water energy to the best turtle!

[Athedia]

Guess I can be in as well.

Is this a mechanic thing or is it just for fun?

Fun! Blackjack was always my favorite bit of the casinos in New Vegas!

Athedia (Dealer):

🃇🃏

Spoiler: Jeenleen

Show

🂺🃆

Spoiler: Lentrax

Show

🃙🃒

Spoiler: CaoimhinTheCape

Show

🃘🂾

Spoiler: Illven

Show

🃛🂩

Now what would you all like to do?

- - - Updated - - -

Just to note I am using a joker to denote the face down card for the dealer.

[Lentrax]

Spoiler: Lentrax

Show

🃙🃒

I will double down.

[flat_footed]

A strangled yelp cuts through the air, jarring you all from your thoughts. You can see a man being drug deeper into the building by another one of the wheeled robots. One arm hangs uselessly at his side, the other firmly in the grasp of the machine. His face, white from the pain, is contorted in fear as his feet kick out in vain on the carpeted floor.

"Nnn-no! No! I can win it back, I swear! It was just a bum machine, it kept lining up wrong! My luck's bound to turn!"

The smiling face of the robot flickers cheerfully as it continues on its path, either unhearing or uncaring to his companion's desperate pleas. Eventually, the pair is lost to sight and the man's voice fades behind the low hum of electricity and hushed conversation.

flat_footed has been busted. He was The Narrator.

[Athedia]

Also all players hands are being dealt face up. However I put them in spoilers so it was easier to tell whose was whose. We aren't using exact New Vegas rules. But no insurance, you can split and you can hit (get another card).

Aces are 1 or 11, Face cards are 10.

- - - Updated - - -

Spoiler: Lentrax

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🃙🃒🂢

There you go, once the rest of our players determine their actions we will see the results!

- - - Updated - - -

A strangled yelp cuts through the air, jarring you all from your thoughts. You can see a man being drug deeper into the building by another one of the wheeled robots. One arm hangs uselessly at his side, the other firmly in the grasp of the machine. His face, white from the pain, is contorted in fear as his feet kick out in vain on the carpeted floor.

"Nnn-no! No! I can win it back, I swear! It was just a bum machine, it kept lining up wrong! My luck's bound to turn!"

The smiling face of the robot flickers cheerfully as it continues on its path, either unhearing or uncaring to his companion's desperate pleas. Eventually, the pair is lost to sight and the man's voice fades behind the low hum of electricity and hushed conversation.

flat_footed has been busted. He was The Narrator.

Shaking head slowly as she dealt another card to Lentrax "Just make good on your bets folks. We are all here for a little fun."

[Let'sGetKraken]

Alright, fine then Athedia, don't deal me in.

So, uh. That is probably not a good thing? Either we have a dayvig, a role guesser, or something else?

[Illven]

I uh......attach another water energy to Squirtle?


@Kraken. Why would a dayvig target the narrator?