WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[Batcathat]

So, uh. That is probably not a good thing? Either we have a dayvig, a role guesser, or something else?

My first thought was that it's part of the fluff. Lots of games have the narrator as the first victim, even if it's usually at the very start. It's possible that you're onto something, though it does seem strange that someone would use a power on the narrator basically right away.

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I uh......attach another water energy to Squirtle?

I do like the mental image of someone who keeps slamming Pokemon cards onto the black jack table.

@Athedia: Out of curiosity, are you picking the cards or somehow randomizing them? The House always wins, after all.

[JeenLeen]

🂺🃆

A 16.
Too tired to do the actual statistics. But a 5 or lower, or a face-card, is helpful. That's probably over 50% odds of a better hand. Besides, if I bust, that gives intel.
So I'll take another card. Hit me!

A strangled yelp cuts through the air, jarring you all from your thoughts. You can see a man being drug deeper into the building by another one of the wheeled robots. One arm hangs uselessly at his side, the other firmly in the grasp of the machine. His face, white from the pain, is contorted in fear as his feet kick out in vain on the carpeted floor.

"Nnn-no! No! I can win it back, I swear! It was just a bum machine, it kept lining up wrong! My luck's bound to turn!"

The smiling face of the robot flickers cheerfully as it continues on its path, either unhearing or uncaring to his companion's desperate pleas. Eventually, the pair is lost to sight and the man's voice fades behind the low hum of electricity and hushed conversation.

flat_footed has been busted. He was The Narrator.

Query: is the Narrator's death not at the beginning due to something, or simply flavor text forgotten until after game start...

Alright, fine then Athedia, don't deal me in.

So, uh. That is probably not a good thing? Either we have a dayvig, a role guesser, or something else?

@Kraken. Why would a dayvig target the narrator?

Could be a dayvig not wanting to kill anybody today, but wanting to test their power and potentially eliminate some bastardy elements by removing an active Narrator.
If that were the case, I think they'd use it later in the Day, though.

I lean towards this is just fluff flat always planned on posting.

We should see what flavor text is used for deaths/lynches. If "has been busted" has a certain meaning, is the one used for all things, or isn't used again--that might help solve the mystery (or at least give a good guess.)

---

Oh--and on fluff for new players/folk not in Rogan's Hivemind: AV said something like "why do folk keep giving me guns". Context: she was the vig last game. (Or, well, essentially. Town powers worked weird that game, but essentially the town vig.)

[flat_footed]

Query: is the Narrator's death not at the beginning due to something, or simply flavor text forgotten until after game start...

The only thing I'll say is it's not forgotten flavor text.

[Athedia]

Alright, fine then Athedia, don't deal me in.

So, uh. That is probably not a good thing? Either we have a dayvig, a role guesser, or something else?

oh Shoot sorry!

Spoiler: Let'sGetKraken

Show

🃘🂥

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I uh......attach another water energy to Squirtle?

A 16.
Too tired to do the actual statistics. But a 5 or lower, or a face-card, is helpful. That's probably over 50% odds of a better hand. Besides, if I bust, that gives intel.
So I'll take another card. Hit me!

Spoiler: Illven

Show

🃛🂩🃁

Spoiler: Jeenleen

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🂺🃆🂸

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As she flipped the card over for Jeenleen the dealer gave a small smile of sympathy and took the caps that made up his bet. "Bust, I'm afraid."

[Illven]

I evolve Squirtle into Wartortle!

[Athedia]

My first thought was that it's part of the fluff. Lots of games have the narrator as the first victim, even if it's usually at the very start. It's possible that you're onto something, though it does seem strange that someone would use a power on the narrator basically right away.

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I do like the mental image of someone who keeps slamming Pokemon cards onto the black jack table.

@Athedia: Out of curiosity, are you picking the cards or somehow randomizing them? The House always wins, after all.

I have simulated each card draw in a multi deck deck and am simply following the order it has given me. Pseudo random as I had the order of the cards randomized for me, but no RNG is purely accurate. I am also playing the game using standard rules for the dealer.

[Lentrax]

Oh--and on fluff for new players/folk not in Rogan's Hivemind: AV said something like "why do folk keep giving me guns". Context: she was the vig last game. (Or, well, essentially. Town powers worked weird that game, but essentially the town vig.)

On a competely, not-entirely-unrelated ooc note, this is my first game of WW. Forums or otherwise.

So to quote someone who said it far better than I:

Spoiler

Show

[Athedia]

I evolve Squirtle into Wartortle!

"You stand? Understood miss." She looked around at the other three (Lentrax, Cao and Kraken) for what they would like to do.

[Let'sGetKraken]

"You stand? Understood miss." She looked around at the other three (Lentrax, Cao and Kraken) for what they would like to do.

All good, happy to be playing.

No point staying on a 13, hit me!

[JeenLeen]

Spoiler: Illven

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🃛🂩🃁

Spoiler: Jeenleen

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🂺🃆🂸

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As she flipped the card over for Jeenleen the dealer gave a small smile of sympathy and took the caps that made up his bet. "Bust, I'm afraid."

Oh, sure, Illven gets a 29 but you say it's an 11. I get a <insert addition here> and it's over 21. Suspicious

Serious note: at least so far I've gotten no feedback or noticeable effect from going bust. Though if it's "instantaneous" could be flat hasn't done it yet, or might resolve at Day's end. I'll keep y'all posted.
My guess (if it's not just fluff Athedia is doing for fun): vote manip power.

Card game note: my daughter got a pack of Yugioh cards. She knows I played back in the day, so she asked me if they were any good. I told her honestly that I had no clue as I have almost no idea how the current rules work.

[Athedia]

All good, happy to be playing.

No point staying on a 13, hit me!

Spoiler: Let'sGetKraken

Show

🃘🂥🂷

The dealer nodded and slid a card over to Kraken. "You hear about the courier come through these parts a few days ago? Looked like they had a rough journey."

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Oh, sure, Illven gets a 29 but you say it's an 11. I get a <insert addition here> and it's over 21. Suspicious

Serious note: at least so far I've gotten no feedback or noticeable effect from going bust. Though if it's "instantaneous" could be flat hasn't done it yet, or might resolve at Day's end. I'll keep y'all posted.
My guess (if it's not just fluff Athedia is doing for fun): vote manip power.

Card game note: my daughter got a pack of Yugioh cards. She knows I played back in the day, so she asked me if they were any good. I told her honestly that I had no clue as I have almost no idea how the current rules work.

Aces are 1 or 11, whichever advantages the player more. Are you accusing the house of cheating?

[Lentrax]

"You stand? Understood miss." She looked around at the other three (Lentrax, Cao and Kraken) for what they would like to do.

I opted for the 'double down' so it was just one extra card and then I automatically stand but i doubled my bet. So I am standing.

[Athedia]

I opted for the 'double down' so it was just one extra card and then I automatically stand but i doubled my bet. So I am standing.

Right I had that written down. (For fluff I was going off memory not my notes)

[Murska]

Right, I'm finally back home.

Going over what's happened real quick, I think Illven hopping third on a wagon this early is a pretty good look, doesn't seem overly self-conscious. Lentrax doing the same on the AV wagon kind of likewise, but that of course takes a very different tone if it happens that Kraken is wolf.

JeenLeen is the first player to start actually playing, so they get a pass from me for day one. As for the analysis, well, thin conclusions on thin evidence, fair for so early. I don't particularly like keeping pocket theories at this point - my read of AV's post was that there's maaaybe a bit of vig cover there, but that'd be no reason to vote at them so I don't know what the reasoning here is.

Athedia's thing seems too complex to be a game-mechanical power directly, but of course it might have some kind of connection. I'd guess it's just fluff, for now.

The Narrator getting busted could be bastard cover, but my guess would be some kind of an actual power used on them. Bastardry automatically makes people suspicious of the narrator slot, so it's feasible someone might go that way especially if they don't have anything better to do day 1. If we later choose to want to speculate on who it might've been - which I don't suggest right now - I have some ideas.

I uh......attach another water energy to Squirtle?


@Kraken. Why would a dayvig target the narrator?

I don't like this post. The answer should be obvious, and even if it isn't, why would you 1: assume Kraken knows any more than the public info 2: want them to reveal it even if they do? It doesn't read like a townie putting actual thought into what happened and why, but rather a stock reaction for the sake of having a reaction.

Anyway, I'd guess if it's a day-vig it's town, if it's a role guesser it's wolf.

Aaand that's about all that's happened I guess.

[AvatarVecna]

I think you gave me the wrong cards. I'm supposed to have aces and eights!

[Athedia]

I think you gave me the wrong cards. I'm supposed to have aces and eights!

You aren't even playing this hand!

[AvatarVecna]

You aren't even playing this hand!

I thought your first post was dealing me in and giving me cards?

[Let'sGetKraken]

Spoiler: Let'sGetKraken

Show

🃘🂥🂷

The dealer nodded and slid a card over to Kraken. "You hear about the courier come through these parts a few days ago? Looked like they had a rough journey."

The man grunts. Rough times bring rough people.

He considers his cards. "Close enough. I'll stay."


-What comfortable pockets Jeen has.
-I like Murska's post well enough. It does seem a bit "let's do reads on people for the sake of doing reads" but I do like the inconsistency on Illven - feels townish to waffle in that particular manner.
- I don't think the wagon on either me or AV is particularly A(lignment)I(indicative) at this point. I mean obviously I would prefer not to be wagoned but... eh.
-Getting neutral or wolf-trying-to-be-read as neutral vibes from Athedia. Making yourself this prominent with a non-mechanical thing feels like a risk a powered town might be unwilling to take. But they've fooled me before.
-I do agree that Illven looks like she's fishing for information, but that matches Illven's personality more than it's AI, I think.

[MerelBlackbird]

HELLOOOOOO!!! I'm too happy for words today, and the gamestate is a big factor in that, actually. A town alignment for me, a card game (Blackjack? I don't know how to play it, but I'd like to join and learn if there's a next round), an implied mystery about the existence placement of the narrator's death... Fascinating and fun! And a new player, great! On the downside I'm kind of late to the thread, but ceramics all day makes up for that!!

I'm not ready to put up reads yet. I'll think on it.

Someday I'll have to start voting in my first post, but I'm not ready for that yet XD.

I'M SO EXCITED ABOUT THIS GAME!!! WAAAHHOOOO!!!

[Illven]

HELLOOOOOO!!! I'm too happy for words today, and the gamestate is a big factor in that, actually. A town alignment for me, a card game (Blackjack? I don't know how to play it, but I'd like to join and learn if there's a next round), an implied mystery about the existence placement of the narrator's death... Fascinating and fun! And a new player, great! On the downside I'm kind of late to the thread, but ceramics all day makes up for that!!

I'm not ready to put up reads yet. I'll think on it.

Someday I'll have to start voting in my first post, but I'm not ready for that yet XD.

I'M SO EXCITED ABOUT THIS GAME!!! WAAAHHOOOO!!!

Hmmm. Attempted overcompensation from last game, or genuine enthusiasm.

[MerelBlackbird]

Hmmm. Attempted overcompensation from last game, or genuine enthusiasm.

OH XD I never thought of that! That excitement was my reaction on seeing my PM, actually. I wonder if my missing these things is why I'm not improving much... Maybe.

[Snowblaze]

Okay. This game exists. I definitely have coherent thoughts about this game.

...yeah, no, that last one is a lie.

- huh. The narrator died. Fun but also weird and paranoia-inducing.

- blackjack also seems fun but there's a bit of me that's scared it has a game-related effect... would the game be that bastard though? Or is that just me being my usual paranoid self?

- agreed that Merel's enthusiasm seems a little... overdone... but I think what she does next will be a lot more telling.

- Murska's takes are good ones I think - nothing particularly hard to fake but thought process is easy to follow

- current wagons are Fine(TM) but I don't have particularly strong opinions on either. I guess there's a world where AV is counterwagon to wolf!Kraken but that's more just making a note for later than something that's influencing my process rn.

...yeah, that's about all I can scrounge up while busy and sleep-deprived. Will have more thoughts once more stuff has happened.

[corncobweb]

A sharply-dressed but disheveled figure enters the casino, crosses the floor, and slowly, deliberately vaults up onto the stage. There isn't any performers here at the time. Perhaps they were late to arrive?

The newcomer reaches the mic and clears their throat with an imposing growl that cuts over the pings of the slot machines, and the susurations of that blackjack/pokemon combination game being invented below.

"Hey folks, sorry I wasn't ready earlier. I'd just like to remind y'all that I do need my beauty sleep. Please, for your own good, do not visit me at night; you won't like my reaction. Even if you think I won't notice. Even if I owe you money! Just... address it in the morning, please."
They sniff, and rub the spots out of their eyes.
"I don't know what happened to flat_footed, but I can't help but wonder of a connection to whatever disturbed me last night... Anyway, give me a few minutes to get ready, then we can get a little ambiance going."

Vault Archives - Dream Town, by Mark Morgan

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"And Athedia, deal me in for the next round please. You know I can't pass up a little blackjack. I'll get the caps to you as soon as I'm done my set."

[bladescape]

Alright, fine then Athedia, don't deal me in.

So, uh. That is probably not a good thing? Either we have a dayvig, a role guesser, or something else?

LetsGetKraken

"Ah. I see blackjack's running already. Don't bother dealin' me in. I prefer to watch the youngin's give their money up, ye ken?" A bedraggled dressed middle aged man lit up a cigar as he watched the others play cards. Tapping the edge of the table restlessly, his eyes roamed over the shadowed crowd, as if looking for someone in particular. Not seeing whoever he was looking for, he glanced back at the rest. "Quiet night though. 'Spected to see a bunch more drunk already."

[Athedia]

I thought your first post was dealing me in and giving me cards?

I had offered but since there was no response I didn't realize you were interested. I will include you in the next hand my apologies.

[Let'sGetKraken]

LetsGetKraken

"Ah. I see blackjack's running already. Don't bother dealin' me in. I prefer to watch the youngin's give their money up, ye ken?" A bedraggled dressed middle aged man lit up a cigar as he watched the others play cards. Tapping the edge of the table restlessly, his eyes roamed over the shadowed crowd, as if looking for someone in particular. Not seeing whoever he was looking for, he glanced back at the rest. "Quiet night though. 'Spected to see a bunch more drunk already."

Well, I don't particularly want to die D1, but if I'm right about one of the bastard twists, it won't be much of a loss to town.

[Murska]

I don't get any strong pings off anyone, mostly because most of the thread is a blackjack game. So I think I'm going to start off voting on Let'sGetKraken just in case the AV wagon is someone trying to protect a wolf buddy. I think whatever reactions follow will be better fuel for analysis closer to EoD.

Fake edit: I've been trying to post this for a while but my internet spazzed out on me, and it looks like blade got there first. Still, plenty of time in the day yet.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

flat_footed has been busted. He was The Narrator.

Did someone do that?

@Kraken. Why would a dayvig target the narrator?

In a bastard game? My policy Day 1 (or Night 1) is to make sure the Narrator isn't doing anything funny. With no reads on anyone, I like that kill (assuming "has been busted" is the kill wording).

"Ah. I see blackjack's running already. Don't bother dealin' me in. I prefer to watch the youngin's give their money up, ye ken?" A bedraggled dressed middle aged man lit up a cigar as he watched the others play cards. Tapping the edge of the table restlessly, his eyes roamed over the shadowed crowd, as if looking for someone in particular. Not seeing whoever he was looking for, he glanced back at the rest. "Quiet night though. 'Spected to see a bunch more drunk already."

With whatever happened there, I feel like we should all keep our wits about us. I won't be drinking today.



@Athedia I'll hold, I don't like my odds of pulling low enough to help.

As nice as this card game is, I think it might be time to shift toward figuring out what's going on here. I'll look back and see if there's anything I noticed so far.

So yeah, busy now, no vote count yet. I'll get another post later today.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I uh......attach another water energy to Squirtle?


@Kraken. Why would a dayvig target the narrator?

And since I never responded: mostly what Cao mentioned.

And just in case - no, I'm not a dayvig two games in a row. It wasn't me. It just felt more wolfy than towny so I thought it wouldn't be bad to speculate on.

[Athedia]

As all the players indicated they were done, Athedia flipped over her facedown card and drew one and then another card.

🃇🂳🂣🂮


She shook her head ruefully and then distributed caps to Lentrax, Cao, Illven and Kraken. "Dealer bust. Who is playing the next hand?

"People speak more around the table, and I do so like to gossip."

She waved down a casino employee and had them bring her some new decks and a shoe. She did not unbox them yet, but let them stand next to the shoe, ready in case more players meant it would be economical to use a larger deck size.

"Curious at someone who prefers no night visitors, it's a lonesome road out there. Good to have someone by your side."

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Currently for the next hand we have:
AvatarVecna
Corncobweb