WW/Mafia Fallout 3: Forecast - Rapidly Changing Conditions

[JeenLeen]

I still don't like the feel of the Kraken wagon. I can see it being a valid one, but something about the steam of it, with so little opposition besides the AV wagon... feels off.
Thoughts/analysis below (and honestly, rereading I do get folk voting Kraken), but I'll leave my vote on AV for now.

-What comfortable pockets Jeen has.
-I like Murska's post well enough. It does seem a bit "let's do reads on people for the sake of doing reads" but I do like the inconsistency on Illven - feels townish to waffle in that particular manner.
- I don't think the wagon on either me or AV is particularly A(lignment)I(indicative) at this point. I mean obviously I would prefer not to be wagoned but... eh.
-Getting neutral or wolf-trying-to-be-read as neutral vibes from Athedia. Making yourself this prominent with a non-mechanical thing feels like a risk a powered town might be unwilling to take. But they've fooled me before.
-I do agree that Illven looks like she's fishing for information, but that matches Illven's personality more than it's AI, I think.

Oddly, this post almost makes me okay with the Kraken wagon. I'll assume it's in response to the one post where I did actual analysis.
It's not that he's accusing me. It's that, if he's accusing me of pocketing him, that doesn't seem right; while I wasn't liking the wagon on Kraken, I also suspected him and Illven of being scumbuddies in the same post.

But maybe I'm misunderstanding.

Hmmm. Attempted overcompensation from last game, or genuine enthusiasm.

Not liking this. Seems like casting shade on Merel for an enthusiastic post.
While I guess Merel did post some real life reasons she doesn't have any actual analysis to add, and that's what she did last game while truly busy/sick and being a wolf, this feels like a wolf!Illven trying to cast shade to start a wagon on someone.

But Illven didn't move her vote from Kraken to Merel.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken town and Merel town, seems an odd post to make. No value; some risk.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken wolf and Merel town, seems odd didn't move her vote when she has a justified reason to.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken town and Merel wolf, makes sense as distancing.
Or it's town!Illven commmenting and I'm getting bad vibes or misunderstanding; such has happened in games before.

"Hey folks, sorry I wasn't ready earlier. I'd just like to remind y'all that I do need my beauty sleep. Please, for your own good, do not visit me at night; you won't like my reaction. Even if you think I won't notice. Even if I owe you money! Just... address it in the morning, please."

I think a townread for this overall. I could definitely see a wolf or neutral saying this, but you'd gotta be a bold wolf to do this lie. But it's, like, such great cover for a wolf not wanting to get scried/tracked. (Or "watched"; i mix up "track" and "watch".)
So that's the WIFOM spiral.

Well, I don't particularly want to die D1, but if I'm right about one of the bastard twists, it won't be much of a loss to town.

If you are still the lead wagon, please give your theory close to Day's end.

[Let'sGetKraken]

I'm not liking the Kraken wagon, even though it's early Day so it probably doesn't mean anything.

Oddly, this post almost makes me okay with the Kraken wagon. I'll assume it's in response to the one post where I did actual analysis.
It's not that he's accusing me. It's that, if he's accusing me of pocketing him, that doesn't seem right; while I wasn't liking the wagon on Kraken, I also suspected him and Illven of being scumbuddies in the same post.

But maybe I'm misunderstanding.

This is the pocketing attempt I referenced. You talking about the possible wolf relationship isn't relevant as much as you saying you didn't like the wagon.

Not that it is necessarily you being a wolf at all - it's just something I am noting for posterity.

If you are still the lead wagon, please give your theory close to Day's end.

I'm afraid I promised flat I wouldn't.

- - - Updated - - -

I will point out that for a game with nineteen players, we're fixating quite a bit on five of them.

[bladescape]

I will point out that for a game with nineteen players, we're fixating quite a bit on five of them.

Who would you like to fixate on?

[JeenLeen]

I'm afraid I promised flat I wouldn't.

That sounds incredibly interesting.

I will point out that for a game with nineteen players, we're fixating quite a bit on five of them.

True, but isn't that how each Day usually goes?
Yet a good point. The AV wagon isn't doing anything.
::looks over who has at least 1 vote already::
Persolus, don't you usually bet on staying past D1 by now?

[Let'sGetKraken]

Who would you like to fixate on?

Cazero, Snow, Cao, or anyone who's only posted once or who has yet to post.

Just preferably not me.

[Snowblaze]

Sure, why not, deal me into the next hand!

Was originally mildly paranoid about Kraken wagon jumping to five votes, except then I realised it's just bladescape being his usual self and Murska probably trying something similar. So given I continue to lack actual reads I will leave my vote on Kraken and see what happens.

Also I have realised my brain is ceasing to function and a mental note I made earlier is invalid due to my failure to consider the idea that people might lie in this game. Probably a sign I should just focus on meeting my deadlines and sleeping.

- - - Updated - - -

Cazero, Snow, Cao, or anyone who's only posted once or who has yet to post.

Just preferably not me.

Do you have reason to suspect any of those first three, or is it just "we should poke people who haven't done much"?

For clarity, can you state who the five players who are being largely focused on are?

[Illven]

Not liking this. Seems like casting shade on Merel for an enthusiastic post.
While I guess Merel did post some real life reasons she doesn't have any actual analysis to add, and that's what she did last game while truly busy/sick and being a wolf, this feels like a wolf!Illven trying to cast shade to start a wagon on someone.

But Illven didn't move her vote from Kraken to Merel.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken town and Merel town, seems an odd post to make. No value; some risk.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken wolf and Merel town, seems odd didn't move her vote when she has a justified reason to.
If Illven is a wolf and Kraken town and Merel wolf, makes sense as distancing.
Or it's town!Illven commmenting and I'm getting bad vibes or misunderstanding; such has happened in games before.

So my thoughts are less the lack of actual analysis and more the contrast between last game where Merel was a wolf and was pretty much death warmed over, and right now where she's a bundle of energy.

So my theories are.

1) Merel is town/neutral and just has more energy then last game.
2) Merel is a wolf, and now that they are actually functioning they are overcompensating since they got suss'ed last time for being death warmed over.
3) They have an awesome power.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Sure, why not, deal me into the next hand!

Was originally mildly paranoid about Kraken wagon jumping to five votes, except then I realised it's just bladescape being his usual self and Murska probably trying something similar. So given I continue to lack actual reads I will leave my vote on Kraken and see what happens.

Also I have realised my brain is ceasing to function and a mental note I made earlier is invalid due to my failure to consider the idea that people might lie in this game. Probably a sign I should just focus on meeting my deadlines and sleeping.

- - - Updated - - -



Do you have reason to suspect any of those first three, or is it just "we should poke people who haven't done much"?

For clarity, can you state who the five players who are being largely focused on are?

You and Cazero because you have both posted but have since done very little.

Cao seemed to be digging about AV's stuff in-thread in a way that felt a bit not-townish on a reread.


As for the five:
-AV
-Myself
-Illven
-Merel
-Flat

[bladescape]

Merel is town ftr and no one should really need to discuss that.

- - - Updated - - -

As for the five:
-AV
-Myself
-Illven
-Merel
-Flat

Really now.

[Let'sGetKraken]

Merel is town ftr and no one should really need to discuss that.

- - - Updated - - -



Really now.

Are you objecting to Flat as a player, or Flat as someone we've been focusing on?

[bladescape]

Are you objecting to Flat as a player, or Flat as someone we've been focusing on?

Flat is the narrator?

[CaoimhinTheCape]

The dealer nodded and slid a card over to Kraken. "You hear about the courier come through these parts a few days ago? Looked like they had a rough journey."

I've heard a lot of different stories about couriers. Seems all the information conflicts. Not really sure what to make of 'em, but not really sure if they're relevant. Rumors say they're a free agent and no one really knows where they'll land. Haven't met them myself, so nothing to really back that up. You think this person is still around?

A sharply-dressed but disheveled figure enters the casino, crosses the floor, and slowly, deliberately vaults up onto the stage. There isn't any performers here at the time. Perhaps they were late to arrive?

The newcomer reaches the mic and clears their throat with an imposing growl that cuts over the pings of the slot machines, and the susurations of that blackjack/pokemon combination game being invented below.

"Hey folks, sorry I wasn't ready earlier. I'd just like to remind y'all that I do need my beauty sleep. Please, for your own good, do not visit me at night; you won't like my reaction. Even if you think I won't notice. Even if I owe you money! Just... address it in the morning, please."
They sniff, and rub the spots out of their eyes.
"I don't know what happened to flat_footed, but I can't help but wonder of a connection to whatever disturbed me last night... Anyway, give me a few minutes to get ready, then we can get a little ambiance going."

"Well, good mornin' sunshine. I'll give you your space if that's what you're looking for. But do you think that poor feller who got dragged away is still involved? Seemed a bit final to me."

Out of character, do you think voting flat is still relevant given this post?

flat_footed has been busted. He was The Narrator.

Vote: Illven

"As much as I like this this little turtle lookin' creature... care to comment on the events so far?" She nods to Athedia. "As much as I appreciate your dealing cards, I've got you in my sights as well. What are you thinking 'bout our situation? I see your thoughts on Merel, but how about anyone else?"

Yeah, I'm voting Illven since she has posts about 1) Squirtle and 2) Merel and that's it. The second post about Merel has substance and was made while I was writing this, but still want more. Same for Athedia - the game is fun but gonna be looking for more going forward.

Also, it seems like we have 2 or 3 people without posts still? it's a longer Day so it's not too much of a problem, but I was surprised to see 4 votes not out.

Votes
Kraken (4): Snowblaze, Illven, bladescape, Murska
Bat (1): Book
Athedia (1): AV
AV (3): BatCatHat, Athedia, Lentrax
Snowblaze (1): Kracken
Persolus (2): Cazero, JeenLeen
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Illven (1): Cape
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

[Athedia]

Flat is the narrator?

Bastard game so there was at least enough focus on him to remove him from the game.

Athedia sighed looking at the much smaller table in front of her. "Last call if you want to join this hand, please clearly state if you wish to play."

[Let'sGetKraken]

Bastard game so there was at least enough focus on him to remove him from the game.

Athedia sighed looking at the much smaller table in front of her. "Last call if you want to join this hand, please clearly state if you wish to play."

This. I'm unwilling to count flat out as an active participant until seen otherwise.

To be clear, I have also been focused on flat. It's not recrimination, I just want us to widen the net.

[Athedia]

"As much as I like this this little turtle lookin' creature... care to comment on the events so far?" She nods to Athedia. "As much as I appreciate your dealing cards, I've got you in my sights as well. What are you thinking 'bout our situation? I see your thoughts on Merel, but how about anyone else?"

Yeah, I'm voting Illven since she has posts about 1) Squirtle and 2) Merel and that's it. The second post about Merel has substance and was made while I was writing this, but still want more. Same for Athedia - the game is fun but gonna be looking for more going forward.

Also, it seems like we have 2 or 3 people without posts still? it's a longer Day so it's not too much of a problem, but I was surprised to see 4 votes not out.

Votes
Kraken (4): Snowblaze, Illven, bladescape, Murska
Bat (1): Book
Athedia (1): AV
AV (3): BatCatHat, Athedia, Lentrax
Snowblaze (1): Kracken
Persolus (2): Cazero, JeenLeen
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Illven (1): Cape
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

Athedia smiled thinly, tidying some of the caps away and organizing her stacks of chips. "Just keeping an eye on the gathered guests miss. We don't want any cheats in this casino, though I will say we aren't going to bust you for counting cards. I run a fair game. Newer folks tend to have two sorts of reactions, far as I see it."

She gestured over to Lentrax, producing a chip as she did so and rolling it between her fingers. "Some get right into the action, at least making a try. But other new faces... they stay more silent.
I wouldn't read to much into them yet, the casino can feel overwhelming for the freshly initiated." She set the chip down with a loud clunk her blank face poker still.

"I am simply observing others at the moment, watching the tables they frequent, the people who frequent them." She dropped her voice, leaning in to speak in a conspiratorially close tone. "I fear that our blinding friend may have much to say of little substance, but with little information there is little I can say. Let us watch some more and see?" She straightened up, the placid small smile of welcome returning to her face. "As for our Turtle inclined friend, it is a strange code they use but I do not read to much into it. There have been odder folk to grace my table before."

[bladescape]

Bastard game so there was at least enough focus on him to remove him from the game.

Athedia sighed looking at the much smaller table in front of her. "Last call if you want to join this hand, please clearly state if you wish to play."

Until I see a daykill on someone that isn't the narrator, I don't think it's really important enough to talk about.

Any bastard mechanics like that will be too vague for D1 to really be able to pin it down, and focusing on it is a great distraction from actual poking people, because the wolves care just as much about it being solvable, and therefore they actually look like they are solving the bastard mechanic. Because they aren't faking anything.

#MakeWolvesFakeAgain

[Let'sGetKraken]

Until I see a daykill on someone that isn't the narrator, I don't think it's really important enough to talk about.

Any bastard mechanics like that will be too vague for D1 to really be able to pin it down, and focusing on it is a great distraction from actual poking people, because the wolves care just as much about it being solvable, and therefore they actually look like they are solving the bastard mechanic. Because they aren't faking anything.

#MakeWolvesFakeAgain

Yeah, that's why I suggested we look at the other 14.

- - - Updated - - -

And so in the spirit of actually doing that... Cazero.

[Murska]

Yeah, that's why I suggested we look at the other 14.

- - - Updated - - -

And so in the spirit of actually doing that... Cazero.

Actually doing that, sure. I'm all for people giving their reads, but what are we supposed to look into with Cazero? Elaborate please.

[Lentrax]

Athedia sighed looking at the much smaller table in front of her. "Last call if you want to join this hand, please clearly state if you wish to play."

“Yeah. I’m still in.”

[Let'sGetKraken]

Actually doing that, sure. I'm all for people giving their reads, but what are we supposed to look into with Cazero? Elaborate please.

It's a pressure vote - the threat of a wagon means that Cazero should be more active or else be yeeted.

[Murska]

Yeah, sure, but why them specifically? I mean, one vote isn't much of a threat, so you need to convince at least a couple others to join in.

[CaoimhinTheCape]

Well, now it's 2 votes.

Vote Cazador Cazero



Votes
Kraken (4): Snowblaze, Illven, bladescape, Murska
Bat (1): Book
Athedia (1): AV
AV (3): BatCatHat, Athedia, Lentrax
Snowblaze (1): Kracken
Persolus (2): Cazero, JeenLeen
flat_footed (1): corncobweb
Cazero (2): Kracken, Cape
No Vote: MerelBlackbird, Persolus, Cuthalion, LadySerpentine

[Murska]

I guess. Kraken's doing some kind of solving at least, and nobody pushed AV to save him earlier, so let's put pressure then. But I'd rather we picked targets with a bit more reasoning - hypocritical of me, but I truly don't have the time to go in-depth today.

Cazero.

[Athedia]

I guess. Kraken's doing some kind of solving at least, and nobody pushed AV to save him earlier, so let's put pressure then. But I'd rather we picked targets with a bit more reasoning - hypocritical of me, but I truly don't have the time to go in-depth today.

Cazero.

"It's just the first hand Murska, you have to see what is played to get an idea of what is left. This shoe is freshly shuffled." Athedia gestured to the unopened cards and unused shoe in front of her as she spoke.

[Murska]

"It's just the first hand Murska, you have to see what is played to get an idea of what is left. This shoe is freshly shuffled." Athedia gestured to the unopened cards and unused shoe in front of her as she spoke.

"When you have little to go on, you go on little. Not nothing."

[Athedia]

"When you have little to go on, you go on little. Not nothing."

"He who stares to closely at his own cards, misses the ones on the table."

Athedia spoke gently but pointedly, returning her attention to the assembled players.

"Hand is started."

She dealt the cards out one by one starting with AvatarVecna around the table until she dealt one to Lentrax and then to herself. She repeated this one more time, keeping her last card facedown.

🃚🃏

Spoiler: AvatarVecna

Show

🂣🃕

Spoiler: Corncobweb

Show

🃆🃎

Spoiler: Snowblaze

Show

🂦🂹

Spoiler: Lentrax

Show

🃓🃍

As the dealer gave the players a moment to plan their moves, she checked the face down card and then flipped it over.

🃚🂱

"Dealer Blackjack, my apologies." Her hands did not echo the sincerity in her voice as she schooled up the caps to her side of the table.

She put her hand on the deck she had been dealing from, ready to start another go but waiting to see if any of the four left the table.

[Murska]

"Yes, exactly my point. I'm glad we agree."

[JeenLeen]

Seeing one of the players confidently playing Pokemon at the Blackjack table, Jeen walks another to another table. With utter lack of subtly, he lays down a card from his pocket facedown on the table. "I play a trap card facedown." The other patrons and the dealer look annoyed and start calling for security.

Any reason y'all went after Cazero instead of Persolus?
Not that I have reason to suspect one over the other, but I find it curious the wagon grew on a new person (Cazero) rather than someone already with a vote (like Persolus).

[Athedia]

Seeing one of the players confidently playing Pokemon at the Blackjack table, Jeen walks another to another table. With utter lack of subtly, he lays down a card from his pocket facedown on the table. "I play a trap card facedown." The other patrons and the dealer look annoyed and start calling for security.

Any reason y'all went after Cazero instead of Persolus?
Not that I have reason to suspect one over the other, but I find it curious the wagon grew on a new person (Cazero) rather than someone already with a vote (like Persolus).

"Sir if you were wishing to play another hand, I am starting another one here. I am fluent in card interpretation."

[Illven]

Seeing one of the players confidently playing Pokemon at the Blackjack table, Jeen walks another to another table. With utter lack of subtly, he lays down a card from his pocket facedown on the table. "I play a trap card facedown." The other patrons and the dealer look annoyed and start calling for security.

Any reason y'all went after Cazero instead of Persolus?
Not that I have reason to suspect one over the other, but I find it curious the wagon grew on a new person (Cazero) rather than someone already with a vote (like Persolus).

Wasn't Persolus d1'd last game? I imagine that would be the reason.

Cazero

@Athedia deal me in for round 3